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Post a Comment On: Steve Sailer: iSteve

"Peyton Manning v. Tom Brady"

11 Comments -

1 – 11 of 11
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Awesome game! I can't believe Belicheat actually went for it!!!

11/15/09, 9:09 PM

Anonymous Anonymous said...

Yeah, I completely agree with you that Berri & Simmons's analysis is incredibly flawed. But it's really Gladwell who is to be blamed, for stating it so simplisticly. It's like if I said "among NBA canters who averaged 30+ minutes, height is only weakly correlated with scoring" and then he said "Anonymous found that height is not important for basketball players".

I feel the need to echo Scrutineer's quote of Bertrand Russell from the earlier thread:

"A stupid man's report of what a clever man says is never accurate because he unconsciously translates what he hears into something he can understand."

11/15/09, 9:27 PM

Anonymous MQ said...

Berri's analysis is ridiculous -- the selection effect Steve points out completely ruins it. Say there were 100 quarterbacks drafted low in the draft, and 99 sucked and didn't play in the NFL, but one was really good and had a 20 year career. Then the good one's numbers would dominate the per play statistics and QBs picked late in the draft would look like great players.

Berri's NBA stats methodology is also pretty dubious.

11/15/09, 9:28 PM

Anonymous Anonymous said...

Steve,

A minor correction. Matt Cassel is not in St. Louis. He is in Kansas City.

11/15/09, 9:43 PM

Anonymous OneSTDV said...

I missed it!!!!!!!

But related to the post, Tom Brady doesn't belong in the same sentence as Peyton Manning.

A guy who hadn't played a game of football in NINE years replaced Brady and threw for almost 25 TD's and was a borderline Pro Bowler. That about says it all.

Brady got by on Belicheck's coaching and a turnover producing defense. He only produced in 2007 with Moss and Welker (who is starting to look like a HOFer) and Stallworth and Ben Watson and Belicheck throwing about 60% of the time.

11/15/09, 9:43 PM

Anonymous Anonymous said...

Gladwell isn't even in Sailer's league. Gladwell's success comes more from marketing himself as the crazy hair (he had a normal haircut once) "diverse" guy who speaks "troof to power" to college kids. Plus, he can write anything and the NY Times will praise it.

11/16/09, 8:48 AM

Anonymous Anonymous said...

But if I had a good shot at draft pick #5-10, if I played real hard and risked more injury? I'd sure take it easy enough to be #11-15.

Is there any evidence of this happening?

11/16/09, 1:56 PM

Blogger Dutch Boy said...

A critical factor for a QB is his offensive line. Good offensive lines keep their man upright and give the receivers time to get open. An average QB can look pretty good with a good offensive line and pretty bad otherwise; e.g., Jim Plunkett was awful with the poor NE Patriot O-line in front of him and pretty good with the Raiders much better line.

11/16/09, 2:14 PM

Anonymous jody said...

well, the perennially bad teams in the modern NFL who get to pick high in the draft year after year, can certainly screw up the careers of potentially decent quarterbacks.

getting picked in the top 5 overall by teams like the lions is basically the end of your career before it even starts. it is exactly like being taken high by the clippers in the NBA draft. you should do everything in your power to avoid it, even willing to become a hated player by refusing to play for the team that drafted you.

matt stafford is totally wasted playing for the lions. he could do significantly better playing for a .500 team. instead, he's going to get pummelled, and look a lot worse than he is. even jamarcus russell, who has no business being an NFL starter, on any team, would do better on a .500 team than on the raiders, even though the raiders have much better players, man for man, than any other bad team.

11/16/09, 5:24 PM

Anonymous cardrunners said...

Tom Brady clearly outplayed Manning in this matchup and a questionable 4th down spot and terrible call and strategy by Bellicheck handed the game to the Colts.

11/18/09, 9:41 AM

Anonymous john wall said...

I would take Brady over Manning for many reasons, but this year and Brett Favre is the MVP. No one in the history of the NFL has had a higher touchdown to interception ratio in a season than Favre currently has.

11/30/09, 4:00 PM

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