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Post a Comment On: Steve Sailer: iSteve

"My Affordable Family Formation theory tested"

22 Comments -

1 – 22 of 22
Anonymous Nanonymous said...

I am impressed. Impressed by the guy giving you a credit. Highly unusual for academic types. He could have gotten away easily without ever mentioning you.

3/15/11, 8:05 PM

Anonymous SFG said...

He dared to cite you by name. Let's hope nothing happens to him.

3/15/11, 8:16 PM

Anonymous beowulf said...

In the future, everything Steve writes will be the subject of at least one PhD thesis.

The possible relationship between reactor meltdowns, tidal waves (what earlier generations called "tsunamis"), camping and ambiguous warning sirens has been largely ignored until now by the political science literature, though the topic has been considered by the political journalist Steven Sailer (2011).

3/15/11, 8:35 PM

Blogger wmhde said...

off topic but interesting that our neighbor Mexico derives 4.5% of its electricity from one nuclear plant

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Laguna_Verde_nuclear_power_plant

i just hope that disparate impact has not left the workforce as homogenous as , say, Apple's or Google's

3/15/11, 8:58 PM

Anonymous cherub's revenge said...

There's a swath of extremely affordable real estate along the I-90 corridor from 47th Street all the way to Gary, IN and there's not much of what you'd call a "family" being formed there. And they don't vote Republican.
Now I was in a bar in Lake View tonight full of late 20s and early 30s SWPL women and they seemed more than content to Yasmin their genetic lines into oblivion and drink the weeknights away and not take advantage of this steal of a deal on real estate. Nor do they seem pining for the sprawlingexurbs of flat land around Chicago.
Are you sure you don't want to add some qualifiers to this theory?

3/15/11, 9:38 PM

Anonymous Anonymous said...

cherub's revenge said...
Now I was in a bar in Lake View tonight full of late 20s and early 30s SWPL women and they seemed more than content to Yasmin their genetic lines into oblivion and drink the weeknights away..

What bars do you recommend in Chicago to meet these women?

3/16/11, 2:50 AM

Anonymous Half Sigma said...

But the cause and effect goes both ways. Republican voters cause Republican local politicians who support less regulation which causes lower housing prices.

3/16/11, 4:50 AM

Anonymous Big Bill said...

Congratulations, Steve. You were not listed as a co-author or contributor, for obvious (yet unfortunate) reasons. His tip-of-the-hat is probably the best one could expect, given the precarious position of PhD candidates. He did a good thing.

3/16/11, 5:32 AM

Anonymous Anonymous said...

Am I, as a financially successful parent, able to replicate the effects of "Affordable Family Formation?"

My main goal is to see my college age children get married and have children as soon after graduation as possible.

All else being equal, if one of my children moved to Dallas where houses are affordable, that child is likely to get married and have children within a reasonable time frame.

On the other hand, if my other child moves to an expensive area like Manhattan Beach, that child is likely to delay getting married and having children due to the fact that a typical single family house in Manhattan Beach costs $2 million dollars.

Clearly as a parent I would prefer to have children move to low cost areas like Dallas instead of high cost areas like Manhattan Beach.

Assuming I have the financial resources, if I tell my children I will gift them with a four bedroom single family house as soon as they marry a spouse I approve of, have I solved the affordable family formation problem - to what extent can I persuade my offspring in Manhattan Beach to have children at a younger age through this?

3/16/11, 5:51 AM

Anonymous Anonymous said...

Keep the following in mind. Independent voters are a very large block of eligible voters. I not quite sure how this would fit into your theory of Affordable Family Formation. My suspicion is that the majority of Independent voters are White Americans. The White Independents who voted for Barack Obama are now known to be fleeing the Democrats. Are these in the Affordable Family category? Probably.

Now I want to connect this with the King hearings on Muslim terrorism. There is no doubt that young White Males are having an increasingly difficlt time in the affordable family formation realm...especially in places such as Peter King's Congressional district. Peter King's Congressional district is being flooded with young Muslim couples looking to start families. Without a doubt, young White American Males in Peter King's Cogressinal District are competing with young Muslim Males for the Affordable Family Formation scarce resources in Congressman Peter King's district. Congressman Peter King voted for the expansion of Islam in America starting in 1993. In 20011, Congressman Peter King continues to vote for the expansion of Islam and the expansion of the nonwhite population in America thereby making Affordable Family Formation for young White American Males increasingly difficult. How much longer will it take for a White. Male revolt against the Republican Party. What would be the big deal if the Republican Party went out of existence? I mean , what is the point of having it around amymore?

3/16/11, 6:40 AM

Anonymous Anonymous said...

Are you sure you don't want to add some qualifiers to this theory?

It's a correlation, not a causation.

What Steve is tracking with this "theory" of his are the localized hotspots of SWPL nihilism and the attendant stratospheric real estate prices.

But it's the underlying elitist nihilism which is driving both the high prices and the low birth rates.

3/16/11, 10:17 AM

Anonymous Christopher Paul said...

Cherub's right, Steve. You need to adjust your findings to account for cherry-picked anecdotes.

3/16/11, 11:19 AM

Blogger Greenwood said...

Cherub's Revenge,
its not a theory about the price of real estate, its a theory about the difficulty of forming a family, which is largely economic, but can also include things like bullets whizzing by.

---

What's really interesting about AFF is whether cheap, decent housing merely acts to sort pre-existing political preferences geographically, or whether it actually influences them. In other words, is your average joe more likely to forgo marriage and be Democratic if he grows up in a high-cost area?

-Osvaldo M.

3/16/11, 11:56 AM

Anonymous Anonymous said...

"Now I was in a bar in Lake View tonight full of late 20s and early 30s SWPL women "

That's like saying 'I once toured a prison in Japan, and it was full of Japanese prisoners. Shouldn't there be qualifiers to the idea that Japanese people have low crime rates?'

3/16/11, 12:32 PM

Blogger Truth said...

'In the future, everything Steve writes will be the subject of at least one PhD thesis.'

-Whiskey too.

3/16/11, 3:20 PM

Anonymous tommy said...

Congratulations. I hope we see more of this kind of work.

3/16/11, 3:45 PM

Anonymous Anonymous said...

"-Whiskey too."

Whiskey will be known only as "Patient X".

3/16/11, 4:10 PM

Blogger AMac said...

Steve,

Counties are much more homogenous than states when it comes to voting patterns -- recall the distinct geographical patterns shown in the county-by-county maps of the last few elections. A sea of red agricultural counties, with islands of purple exurbs adjoining a ring of red suburbs. Centered about purple or blue close-in suburbs and a blue city.

Counties are also more homogenous than states when it comes to single-family homes, obviously.

So I would expect the correlation coefficients found by George Hawley to be much higher than the ones you found, if AFF really packs a punch.

On the other hand, some of yours were already astonishingly high, for a social science study.

How did that work out?

3/16/11, 7:56 PM

Anonymous Anonymous said...

"'In the future, everything Steve writes will be the subject of at least one PhD thesis.'

-Whiskey too."


Please don't encourage Whiskey.

3/17/11, 3:20 AM

Blogger JW Ogden said...

Affordable is a very slippery idea, if people lived today like they did in 1960 they would have plenty of money to afford homes and children. In that time we were middle class but we lived in 3 family tenement house with linoleum flooring. I never was taken to restaurant. Many of the kids that lived near me had never left the state of RI! We ate a lot of pasta and we were all skinny because food costs were significant.

3/17/11, 11:51 AM

Blogger Truth said...

" We ate a lot of pasta and we were all skinny because food costs were significant."

That, plus you walked 9 miles to school...uphill both ways.

3/17/11, 1:01 PM

Anonymous Anonymous said...

That, plus you walked 9 miles to school...uphill both ways.

And 10 miles to the outhouse.

3/17/11, 2:13 PM

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