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Post a Comment On: Steve Sailer: iSteve

"Hall of Fame and Steroids and Naked Ballplayers"

23 Comments -

1 – 23 of 23
Anonymous Anonymous said...

"Rafael Palmeiro, whose case was debatable on the statistical merits anyway..."

Can someone please explain how 569 HRs and 3,020 hits is "debatable?" Especially with Andre freakin' Dawson in the Hall. Come on now, steroids is the only issue here. It would be nice for Silver to admit that.

1/5/11, 11:50 PM

Anonymous eh said...

To me, the tough question is Barry Bonds,...

It's only tough because Bonds very probably, if not definitely, would have been a HOFer without taking anabolics. He was a great player, even in the early '90s. But he did take them. And is to boot the most blatant and disgusting example of that form of cheating. Due to, in part, his consistent, arrogant lying about it.

No way he ought to be eleced to the HOF. That part's not tough at all.

1/6/11, 1:28 AM

Blogger Steve Sailer said...

Bonds ex-girlfriend says he started experimenting with PEDs in 1999. So, his clean 1986-1998 seasons alone put him in the Top 20 position players all time in Wins Above Replacement. If he'd played out his career au naturel, he'd probably have finished in the top ten.

1/6/11, 3:28 AM

Anonymous albert magnus said...

The season Bagwell slugged .750 was a season shortened by his broken hand. They also changed the walls a bit in the Astrodome.

Bagwell, unlike McGwire or Palmerio, did everything well. Defense, baserunning and clubhouse leadership. On top of that, beyond the MVP year, he was remarkably consistent and injury-free (until his arthritic shoulder ended his career) unlike other steroid users.

If Bagwell had played in MMPUS his whole career rather than just after 2000 he would have had at least one more MVP in the late nineties and he would be a no-brainer for the Hall. (Though he should be already).

1/6/11, 4:06 AM

Anonymous JHB said...

Here's suspicion regarding Jeff Bagwell: Bagwell hit only six home runs in two minor league seasons, after which he hit 449 home runs in the Major Leagues. Yes, players develop, but Bagwell was playing at lower levels of competition and he simply wasn't a power hitter in the minor leagues, even though he was a guy with college experience three or four years older than about half of the other players.

I think that a preponderance of evidence points to his steroid use, and there are third party allegations of steroid use. I don't know that steroid use equates to exclusion from Cooperstown, but I think that it's pretty clear that Bagwell would be suspected of steroid use by a reasonable observer.

1/6/11, 5:02 AM

Blogger DCThrowback said...

Barry Bonds - with or without steroids - is one of the greatest baseball players of all time. With steroids, he became the greatest. Sadly, he never learned media relations like his "friends" Sosa & McGwire. A casual reminder that these middle aged, white sportswriters would be the ones having the final say over his career probably would've served Barry well (not that he would've heeded it anyways).

He should be a first ballot HOFer in every scenario.

1/6/11, 5:29 AM

Anonymous josh said...

Bonds was the best player since the Mays/Aaron/Mantle days without PEDs (with them he was so absurdly much better than everybody else, many of whom were also juicing, despite being fairly old that it just shows how talented he was). The question is whether he should be punished.

Andre Dawson's induction is not debatable, it's a minor travesty.

1/6/11, 5:35 AM

Blogger keypusher said...

Anonymous

Statistical analysis of Rafael Palmeiro and others here:

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=12628

There is a lot to look at, but the author makes the case that, adjusting for his era and the parks he played in, Palmeiro does not have shoe-in credentials, even leaving steroids aside.

1/6/11, 8:21 AM

Anonymous Anonymous said...

My brother and son never 'juiced' but both had Godawful acne on their backs when in high school and both had what is called in our small town 'stupid strength'. Meaning enough strength to really get yourself into trouble.

My son would hurt himself playing by jumping too high and landing wrong or pulling muscles. My brother and I just fooled around turning small cars around in their parking spots by walking the back ends around. We were always the first guys called to move furniture or pianos.

I wasn't as strong as my brother but I didn't have the acne either. I think testosterone must have something to do with it.

1/6/11, 9:46 AM

Anonymous helene edwards said...

+1 to First Anon. This site is all about calling out stupidity, right? Well, that clause about Palmeiro is the clubhouse leader for the year so far. But for steroids, those are 1st ballot numbers.

1/6/11, 10:29 AM

Blogger James Kabala said...

There probably is a steroid user in the Hall of Fame already. I don't have anyone in particular in mind, but I bet someone has slipped through, or if no one has, that someone will do so by 2020 at the latest. Not everyone shows obvious signs.

1/6/11, 11:16 AM

Anonymous alonzo portfolio said...

Keypusher, do you believe in this "adjusting for parks" stuff? The Polo Grounds had one of the shortest right field home run distances of any park. So if Mel Ott's numbers were good enough (511 hr.) aren't Palmeiro's too?

1/6/11, 2:58 PM

Anonymous MQ said...

If Barry Bonds doesn't make it to the hall of fame then the whole process is a farce. He only started shooting up because the entire sport was engaged in a conspiracy of silence about allowing mediocrities to juice, and he saw himself losing out to said mediocrities because of that. You could even say that he owed it to his fans to juice -- the sport had de facto accepted steroid use and the SF Giants were losing games because he wasn't doing what his competitors were doing in order to win.

I find the attitude toward past steroid use today on the part of fans and journalists to be hypocritical in the highest degree. It's not like this stuff was hard to figure out when it was happening.

1/6/11, 5:21 PM

Anonymous Anonymous said...

Lee Smith belongs in the Hall of Fame.

1/6/11, 5:43 PM

Anonymous Anonymous said...

Actually, the real reason the Cubs traded Palmeiro was because he slept with Ryne Sandberg's wife.

1/6/11, 7:26 PM

Anonymous Anonymous said...

Palmeiro is not a HOF'er. I saw him up close. Total choker. If Cal Ripken woulda juiced like he was supposed to the Orioles would have won the 1996 and 1997 World Series. Still pisses me off.

Dan in DC

1/7/11, 12:16 AM

Anonymous Anonymous said...

JHB, Bagwell played in the ultimate pitcher's park in the minors, the old Beehive Field in New Britain, CT when he was in the Red $ox farm system. Nobody hit home runs there.

The idiots running the $ox in those days also discounted the Beehive Effect and traded Bagwell instead of the immortal Scott Cooper to the Astros.

Brutus

1/7/11, 9:25 AM

Anonymous Anonymous said...

Ridiculous to have a "morals clause" for the HOF. The best players, as demonstrated on the field, should be inducted. That includes Pete Rose and Barry Bonds, above all others.

1/7/11, 11:17 AM

Anonymous Anonymous said...

My brother and son never 'juiced' but both had Godawful acne on their backs when in high school and both had what is called in our small town 'stupid strength'. Meaning enough strength to really get yourself into trouble.

I suspect a genetic link between low IQ and hypermuscularity.

I think testosterone must have something to do with it.

That, and genetics.

1/7/11, 11:51 AM

Blogger keypusher said...

alonzo portfolio said...

Keypusher, do you believe in this "adjusting for parks" stuff?


Of course. If Player A has to hit the ball 250 feet for a home run, and Player B has to hit the ball 400 feet for a home run, doesn't it make sense to take that into account when rating Player A against Player B?

The Polo Grounds had one of the shortest right field home run distances of any park. So if Mel Ott's numbers were good enough (511 hr.) aren't Palmeiro's too?

Or maybe Mel Ott shouldn't be in the Hall of Fame either? There are a lot of guys in the Hall of Fame who shouldn't be. (Checking the web, though, it looks like Ott isn't one of them. While he hit 323 of his 511 home runs at home, he actually had a higher batting average on the road than at home, had huge RBI and run totals, and hit nearly 500 doubles. Baseball Reference sees him as exceeding the Hall of Fame batting thresholds by a lot. So even if you knocked 100 homers off his career total, he'd still probably be in the Hall.)

Anyway, I'm not saying Palmeiro shouldn't be in the Hall. I only skimmed that last link I posted. I'm just saying that, in the Steroid Era, 500 HRs and 3000 hits may not be an automatic ticket to the Hall of Fame.

1/7/11, 12:05 PM

Anonymous JHB said...

Brutus, I understand that the Beehive was a AA pitcher's park in a pitcher's league. With four home runs in 1990 with New Britain, Bagwell had 13% of his team's home runs. But it was an average AA team, not an MLB team, so a guy with HOF power would be expected to dominate his teammates. Bagwell did that in Houston: his MLB rookie year, 1991, he had 19% of his team's home runs, and by age 26 in 1994 he had 32% of his team's home runs. Bagwell wasn't a notable power hitter in AA.

The guy who had the most home runs on Bagwell's AA team was Eric Wedge, with five. Wedge went on to hit exactly five home runs in MLB. The two guys behind Bagwell in home runs that year in New Britain weren't even good enough to play in MLB.

The most successful future power hitter other than Bagwell on his AA team was shortstop John Valentin, who had only two home runs in 1990. Valentin had, however, hit eleven home runs in A ball the previous year while Bagwell had hit two, and Valentin went on to hit just 124 home runs in MLB while Bagwell hit 449 in his MLB career.

While Bagwell might have hit more home runs in a different ballpark, he failed to show himself to be a significantly better power hitter than his teammates who went on to far lesser careers. Something changed significantly to make Jeff Bagwell a power hitter at all, let alone a HOF-caliber power hitter.

1/7/11, 2:58 PM

Anonymous Tony said...

Palmeiro absolutely used steroids. Why else would a world class athlete in his 30's need viagra. I thought it funny that someone from a macho hispanic culture would actually admit to using viagra. I guess money talks.

1/7/11, 5:30 PM

Anonymous Tim Cooper said...

As young people are mad for the development of the big muscles and they can do any thing for the achieving of these muscles and therefore I think many of the youngsters will surely take the advantage of the steroids.

5/3/11, 11:10 PM

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