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"Did U.S. okay 2008 South Ossetian war?"

35 Comments -

1 – 35 of 35
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Actually, that's an intelligent read on the situation with good questions asked.

And frankly, it increasingly makes me wonder if the U.S. has any f***ing idea just what a hornets' nest it may be stirring up.

Aren't there at least minimum qualifications for getting a job in the State Department?

3/4/14, 6:17 PM

Anonymous Anonymous said...

"Allow me to reiterate that all of these factually distorted analogies in the American press right now between Georgia in 2008 and Ukraine in 2014 are unfair to the new Ukrainian government, which hasn't invaded anybody, and, in general, seems to be behaving quite responsibly."

Of course, one should also recall that Putin very much wanted Georgia to behave irresponsibly....

3/4/14, 6:29 PM

Anonymous Anonymous said...

"In summary, my guess (and it's very much a guess) is that Saakashvili was getting conflicting body language from the Bush Administration. Perhaps he misjudged that Cheney was still the power behind the throne, while Bush's favor had actually shifted toward the less belligerent Gates and Rice, who despised the Georgian."

My guess is that Saakashvili was on a manic upswing.

3/4/14, 6:31 PM

Anonymous PJ O'Rourke has a new book said...

Steve, today on the Mark Levin radio show, Rummy said Russia "went into" Georgia, and that the motivation was to prevent association with NATO.

3/4/14, 6:34 PM

Anonymous DJF said...

From what I have read the Ossetians had managed to stop the Georgian advance before the Russians advanced into South Ossetia, The Ossetians had also called on their allies the Abkhazians who attacked Georgian positions so Georgians were stopped in Ossetia and losing against the Abkhazians. The Russians then pushed the Georgians out of Ossetia and attacked through Abkhazia

There were three reasons why the Russians moved into Georgia proper.

1. Take out Georgian artillery which threatened Ossetia
2. Round up all the weapons abandoned by the Georgians (Something the US did not do in Iraq and paid dearly for the mistake)
3. Round up all the Ossetian and Abkhazian fighters who had already moved into Georgia

Why does Russia support the Ossetians and Abkahasians, simple, they don’t care about having parts of Georgia , they just want peace in the Caucasus Mountains. Supporting the Georgians gets them war since the Georgians have proven they can’t beat the Ossetians and Abkahasians . Supporting the Ossetians and Abkahasians gets them peace since they forced the Georgians into a cease fire which mostly held until Saakashvili came along.

The same reason is why the Russians supports Steve’s favorite Chechen dictator, he keeps the Chechens peaceful

3/4/14, 6:38 PM

Anonymous panelvan said...

Putin likes making hay while the sun shines; also, he doesn't mind forcing the sun to break through a cloudy sky.

3/4/14, 6:46 PM

Blogger AMac said...

One point of dispute over "who started it?" that has never been resolved (to my knowledge), is, Did the Russians start pouring the armored units of the 58th Army through the Roki Tunnel before or after Saakashvili unleashed his Guns of August?

Georgians say before and Russians say after. I noted at the time in a comment,

"The OSCE apparently had a military observer at the JPKF post at the crucial Didi Gupta junction, ~35 km SW of the Roki Tunnel on route P-2 (the only road connecting the tunnel with Tskhinvali). They haven’t revealed what that observer witnessed."

Kind of hard to miss over 100 BMPs and tanks roaring down a two-lane road and over a bridge, a few yards from your post. Does anybody know if the Organization for Cooperation and Security in Europe ever revealed what its observer observed?

3/4/14, 6:50 PM

Anonymous Anonymous said...

Steve, today on the Mark Levin radio show, Rummy said Russia "went into" Georgia, and that the motivation was to prevent association with NATO.

Rush and Levin are wrong on this issue. They believe Putin is some commie out for global domination while ignoring global leftists using US power to do the same. Interestingly, Michael Savage seems to have figured this out and comes across as much more knowledgeable of which side is pushing what.

3/4/14, 6:52 PM

Anonymous Anonymous said...

So, is Hillary a hothead? She has already declared that Putin is the new Hitler, or so it seems.

3/4/14, 6:56 PM

Anonymous Dan said...

Most nations that mess with Mother Russia tend to regret it.

Jut saying.

3/4/14, 7:22 PM

Anonymous Anonymous said...

"And frankly, it increasingly makes me wonder if the U.S. has any f***ing idea just what a hornets' nest it may be stirring up. "

I don't think it's incompetence. The neocons' interests are simply different from the interests of the American people. The neocons want their enemies to constantly fight each other. They want to stir things up. Russia vs. Ukraine is better for them than Putin-led Eurasian Union vs. the oligarchs and cultural filth. Shia vs. Sunni is better for them than Muslims vs. Israel.

3/4/14, 7:33 PM

Anonymous Portlander said...

This Saakashvili thing kind of reminds me of April Glaspie's role in the first Gulf War.

Now maybe "role" is being uncharitable, but these people are supposed to be sine qua non statecraft experts acting on behalf of the world's hyper-power, and yet these body language mistakes are being made with some noticeable regularity.

I suppose we could be generous and say these types of mistakes are unavoidable, but then that suggests the problem is the world doesn't actually need a hyper-power. It inclines people to do overly rash things figuring the 800 lb gorilla has their back.

But then that runs into the problem that we're essentially questioning: The Deep State, do we need it?

3/4/14, 7:48 PM

Anonymous airtommy said...

the new Ukrainian government, which hasn't invaded anybody

They invaded Ukraine. Remember the democratically-elected government that they violently deposed just a few weeks ago?

3/4/14, 8:18 PM

Anonymous Anonymous said...

That "third independence-minded province" was Adjaria. It has the misfortune of not bordering Russia, so it ain't independence-minded no more.

3/4/14, 8:59 PM

Blogger Geoff Matthews said...

PJ,

Couldn't Rummy and Steve's accounts both be accurate?

3/4/14, 9:00 PM

Anonymous 5371 said...

For example, Georgian air defenses performed well during the war, downing three Russian jets including an expensive bomber and denying Russia effective air supremacy over Georgia.

I'm afraid that like all other claims of Georgian success in battle, these were invented after the fact as some weak consolation for their disasters.

3/4/14, 9:03 PM

Anonymous HA said...

Actually, these folks in Galicia have barely had a relationship with Russia. They were not part of Russian state at any time between about 1250 and 1939. They aren't part of one now either.

When will the Greater-Russia apologists realize that *everyone* West of Trieste had a very intimate relationship with Russia. The "Galicians", or however you choose to name or denigrate them, are no exception. I may not agree with much of anything that they stand for, but when it comes to shouting 'no' at whatever Moscow chooses to offer this time around, I can certainly sympathize.

3/4/14, 9:46 PM

Anonymous Dan said...

The bottom line here.

Is peace served by Russia maintaining a robust military presence in Crimea?

That's what is at stake.

To quote Baron Mandelson of New Labour on income and earnings:

I'm disgustingly comfortable with people getting filthy rich, as long as they pay their taxes.

I don't have a problem with the Russians running Crimea.

3/4/14, 9:47 PM

Anonymous Anonymous said...

OT/ Victoria Nuland's father just died - fascinating biography:

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/03/05/us/sherwin-b-nuland-author-who-challenged-concept-of-dignified-death-dies-at-83.html?hp

3/4/14, 9:49 PM

Anonymous Anonymous said...

"In summary, my guess (and it's very much a guess) is that Saakashvili was getting conflicting body language from the Bush Administration. Perhaps he misjudged that Cheney was still the power behind the throne, while Bush's favor had actually shifted toward the less belligerent Gates and Rice, who despised the Georgian."

In the years before the war, Rice repeatedly praised Saakashvili's efforts to promote Georgia's "territorial integrity" and the restoration of "constitutional order,” terms he was using domestically as euphemisms for retaking South Ossetia and Abkhazia by military force. Rice's statement's – in combination with high profile visits by then-President George W. Bush, then-VP Cheney, and prominent Republican Senator John McCain – left listeners with the expectation that the Georgian military could expect direct US intervention in any conflict with Russia, Abkhazia, or South Ossetia.

When Condoleeza Rice visited Georgia on July 10, 2008, she repeatedly reaffirmed her support for Saakashvili, promised to protect Georgia's “territorial integrity” and to help it join NATO, and denounced Russian efforts to dissuade Georgia from attempting a military solution in South Ossetia. She ended one such speech by promising to support Georgia in the coming months, stating that
“[w]e always fight for our friends.”
In the coming weeks, Saakashvili was nearly moved to tears whenever he discussed Rice's fervent support for his agenda.

Less than a month later, on August 8, 2008, Saakashvili ordered a so-called “constitutional order operation” intended to “restore” Georgia's “constitutional order” and “territorial integrity.” To the rest of the world, the “operation” was known as the 2008 South Ossetia War or the Russo-Georgian War.

3/4/14, 10:58 PM

Anonymous Anonymous said...

>Why does Russia support the Ossetians and Abkahasians, simple, they don’t care about having parts of Georgia , they just want peace in the Caucasus Mountains.

Thank you Pravda, for reiterating the official Russian position.

3/4/14, 11:01 PM

Anonymous Anonymous said...

Some fun facts I bet you didn't know: Turkey has interests recognized by treaties from 1920s in Adjaria (Batumi) and Nakhchivan, for example a declaration of independence in the first and an Armenian invasion in the second would be -more accurately could be depending on who's in power- a pretext for direct Turkish intervention.

3/4/14, 11:13 PM

Anonymous Anonymous said...

Less than a month later, on August 8, 2008, Saakashvili ordered a so-called “constitutional order operation” intended to “restore” Georgia's “constitutional order” and “territorial integrity.” To the rest of the world, the “operation” was known as the 2008 South Ossetia War or the Russo-Georgian War.

Correction:

The "constitutional order operation" started on August 7, 2008, local time.

3/4/14, 11:50 PM

Blogger AmericanGoy said...

Somebody's been reading my blog. Good for you; this info needed to be out there.

Are you going to write about the Hebrew speaking defense minister making "defence" deals with "private" Israeli weapons companies.

Also, are you going to write about not just the 1500 American "advisers" in Georgia, but also the Israeli ones?

3/5/14, 12:30 AM

Anonymous Hunsdon said...

Our host parenthesized: By the way, I shouldn't be so personally harsh on Saakashvili, whose nationalist irredentism has its admirable aspects.

Hunsdon said: Well said. My general objection to foreign leaders is not so much how they run their country, but how much they cause the United States to get involved. (Naturally, there is a fair bit of overlap here.)

I like Georgia---it's a fascinating place, with good food, good wine, and a hillbilly martial culture I can admire. Don't care to go to war to settle their irredentist dreams, though.

3/5/14, 4:47 AM

Anonymous Anonymous said...

Dan:"Most nations that mess with Mother Russia tend to regret it.

Jut saying."

Well, the Crimean War turned out badly for the Russians. And WW1 swung Germany's way in the East (cf Treaty of Brest-Litovsk). Of course, Germany's failure to win in the West kept the Germans from being able to follow through on their victory.And the Cold War ended with the Soviet Union falling apart.

3/5/14, 5:05 AM

Anonymous DJF said...

“”””Thank you Pravda, for reiterating the official Russian position”””

So what is your position

Ossetians and Abkahasians have already beaten the Georgians twice. There was peace for the most part in the area before Saakashvili tried his invasion. Supporting Georgia does not get Russia peace because they are not very good fighting in the hills and mountains of the Caucasus.

At best supporting Georgia will get a long drawn out insurgency in the Caucasus on both sides of the Caucasus mountains. And if Russia sends troops to help the Georgians then Russia becomes a target of another long war in the mountains

3/5/14, 5:15 AM

Anonymous Mr. Anon said...

"Portlander said...

But then that runs into the problem that we're essentially questioning: The Deep State, do we need it?"

No. The first thing I would do, had I the powe to do so, would be to close at least half our embassies around the world. That alone would reduce a lot of immigration into the US. And do we really need an embassy in Burkina Faso?

3/5/14, 5:33 AM

Anonymous Anonymous said...

"In summary, my guess (and it's very much a guess) is that Saakashvili was getting conflicting body language from the Bush Administration."

The more I read up about it - including your posts - the more I think US oligarchs are running their own foreign policy out ahead of the official one.

The two policies are more or less aligned in their anti-Russian aspects but the oligarch's one is at least partly just about making money and also far more reckless.

3/5/14, 10:21 AM

Anonymous Anonymous said...

For example, Georgian air defenses performed well during the war, downing three Russian jets including an expensive bomber and denying Russia effective air supremacy over Georgia.

I seem to recall that the USAF lost one of its much lauded stealth aircraft to an even lesser force a while back.

3/5/14, 10:49 AM

Anonymous Anonymous said...

Now the factual distortion is that the Ukrainian govt. is peopled by angels and pure-at-heart democrats.

Svoboda, the Gas Princess, the fact that Yakunovich was the legitimate President all swept under the rug.

The CW is best distilled by the airhead on PBS's so-called Newshour.

3/5/14, 1:20 PM

Anonymous Anonymous said...

Reads like something out of Alice in Wonderland. Scary to think about what MIGHT have happened. Reminds me of how Europe blundered into WW1. We all know how well that worked out.

How does having an alliance with Georgia protect American lives?

3/5/14, 3:26 PM

Anonymous ATBOTL said...

This whole Ukraine conflict is being overblown in the Anglosphere media.

A democratically elected government was chased out of office by rioters. The opposition, who lost the last election, has now installed itself in government, which is probably illegal and unconstitutional. Parts of Ukraine that are predominantly populated by people who voted for the party that was chased out by the rioters are refusing to recognize the new self-styled government.

The likely solution will be for the deposed faction to have a say in forming the new gov't. All this nonsense about Russia invading is a gambit to try to legitimize the Tymoshenko faction's seizure of power.

3/5/14, 3:52 PM

Anonymous ATBOTL said...

"Did the Russians start pouring the armored units of the 58th Army through the Roki Tunnel before or after Saakashvili unleashed his Guns of August?"

After.

That there is any confusion over this is indication of just how wildly dishonest and deliberately deceptive our media is.

3/5/14, 3:59 PM

Blogger AMac said...

ATBOTL (3/5/14, 3:59 PM) --

Do you have a Link or cite? Do you know if the Didi Gupta OSCE observer's reports were ever released?

3/5/14, 5:25 PM

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