[Image]ODM leader Raila Odinga may not have been popular in the vote-rich Nakuru County in the 2013 and 2017 elections, but he now seems to be gaining ground.Mr Odinga launched his Azimio la Umoja in Nakuru last August following in the footsteps of President Uhuru Kenyatta, whose then TNA party and William Ruto’s URP sealed their merger to form the Jubilee alliance that propelled them to power in 2013.Mr Odinga has been altering the political equation since he launched Azimio. The county is now at a crossroads, with the two dominant communities not reading from the same political script as they did in two last polls.RELATEDNakuru women bucking trend in elective politicsGender 2 hours agoUhuru throws Nakuru gubernatorial race wide openNakuru 2 hours ago“When you allow a political bigwig like Mr Odinga to enter the Jubilee bedroom... it means a major political paradigm shift is likely to happen and the political landscape in the rainbow county might never be the same again after August 9,” Mr George Omondi, a political analyst said.This Azimio factor, pundits believe, could also sway the outcome of the gubernatorial race in the county that’s still regarded as a Jubilee stronghold.The latest statistics from the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission indicate that 58 per cent of Nakuru voters are from the populous Kikuyu community, while 24 per cent are Kalenjin and 18 per cent are minority communities.The main battlegroundThe race for governor is touted as the toughest since the advent of devolution and could see Governor Lee Kinyanjui fight it out with his arch-rival Senator Susan Kihika, who will run on a UDA ticket.But Mr Kinyanjui, who will vie on an Ubuntu People’s Forum’s ticket, will first face off with Dr Stanley Karanja of Jubilee in the Azimio primaries.“Mr Kinyanjui stands a better chance to clinch the Azimio la Umoja ticket based on his track record. However, Dr Karanja is no political pushover as he has been tried and tested, and if he convinces the Jubilee supporters at the primaries, he will give Mr Kinyanjui a good run for his money,” Rongai resident Michael Korir said.Dr Karanja made his political debut in 2013 in the Nakuru Town East parliamentary race. He then tried his luck as the running mate of former Senator James Mungai when the two ran as independent candidates in the 2017 governor’s race.Kikuyu votes, said Mr Omondi, will be the main battleground.“With the community having no presidential candidate, there is likely to be voter apathy on voting day and the candidate who will go door to door and use the ‘get-the-vote-out’ strategy and convince the community to vote and wins the minority communities’ votes stands a high chance [of winning] the gubernatorial seat,” he said.Retain the hot seatMs Kihika is hoping to consolidate the Kalenjin vote to raise her prospects of victory, but Mr Kinyanjui still enjoys pockets of support from the populous Kalenjin community and the split in the Kikuyu vote bloc means the candidate with support from the minority communities will carry the day.Political pundits believe the Azimio la Umoja coalition could give Governor Kinyanjui a lifeline and have him as the first-ever governor to retain the hot seat.“Politicians who think they can win the Nakuru governor’s seat without support from President Kenyatta are daydreaming,” Mr Peter Kagima said. “President Kenyatta still enjoys considerable support among the Kikuyu in the region and [he has] grand plans to revive the Jubilee Party, which is in the Azimio la Umoja coalition,” he added. But Mr Peter Mbae, a first-time MCA, who is a close ally of DP Ruto, said Ms Kihika has strong support at the grassroots.“A strong UDA wave is sweeping the county. The majority of the former and outgoing MCAs... and sitting MPs are UDA supporters. It will be an uphill task for the incumbent to retain his seat,” he said. BY DAILY NATION
posted by Breaking Kenya news at 09:33 on 28 Feb 2022
"Azimio factor in Nakuru contest for governor seat"
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