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As of today, the average Major League team has played exactly 81 games. We are officially at the halfway point. For about an hour last night, the Tampa Bay Rays had the best record in baseball! Are they for real? What about the Cubs, White Sox and other division leaders?

Using Baseball Mogul 2009, we updated our database to reflect current records and injuries, and we simulated the second half of the season one thousand times.
Here are our predictions. 'WC%' refers to each team's chance to win the World Series.
[Image] Copyright Sports Mogul Inc.
AL EAST Won Lost GB WC% Boston 95 67 -- 22.8% Tampa Bay 92 70 3 12.6% New York 90 72 5 4.3% Toronto 80 82 15 0.4% Baltimore 74 88 21 0.0%
The Red Sox will probably win the division, and have a good chance at repeating as World Champions. But the Rays should keep it close, and the Yankees will probably play well in the 2nd half, even with Wang on the DL.

AL CENTRAL Won Lost GB WC% Chicago 84 78 -- 1.9% Minnesota 84 78 -- 1.7% Detroit 82 80 2.0 1.5% Cleveland 78 84 6.0 0.3% Kansas City 73 89 11.0 0.0%
The tightest division in baseball. Even the Royals have an outside chance to win the division.

AL WEST Won Lost GB WC% Los Angeles 91 71 -- 5.1% Oakland 85 77 6.0 0.8% Texas 76 86 15.0 0.1% Seattle 71 89 20.0 0.0%
The Angels should be able to stay atop the AL West. It looks like the Wild Card will come out of the AL East for another year.

NL EAST Won Lost GB WC% New York 89 73 -- 14.1% Philadelphia 87 75 2.0 7.8% Atlanta 82 80 7.0 1.1% Florida 73 89 16.0 0.0% Washington 66 96 23.0 0.0%
The Mets have a good team, even with Pedro injured and near the end of his career. They should be able to pull ahead of the Phillies and undo last year's collapse.

NL CENTRAL Won Lost GB WC% Chicago 90 72 -- 8.4% Milwaukee 86 76 4.0 1.4% St. Louis 86 76 4.0 1.3% Pittsburgh 77 87 13.0 0.1% Houston 76 86 14.0 0.0% Cincinnati 75 87 15.0 0.0%
With 7 teams projected for between 86 and 90 wins, the National League should have a very tight and very exciting playoff race -- including a Wild Card that goes down to the wire.

NL WEST Won Lost GB WC% Arizona 88 74 -- 10.3% Los Angeles 86 76 2.0 3.5% Colorado 72 90 16.0 0.0% San Diego 71 91 17.0 0.0% San Francisco 70 92 18.0 0.0%
The Rockies won't repeat as NL Champs. But the Dodgers and Diamondbacks each have a decent shot at making it back to the World Series.