they don't have his shut outs correct on that cy young award predictor.. it lists his as 2 but he has 3.. so he should have an even larger lead in all reality..
Great piece, Rany. Although I can't help but add the worst bullpen in the AL as contributors to Zack's faulty W-L record. Zack was in line to win 4 games that were blown by the pen literally within ten minutes of coming on in "relief." If they held just two of those four, presto, he's tied with Sabathia and Verlander for the league lead in wins even with the wretched run support.
And could Kevin Appier be more underappreciated? His own local beatwriters deny him deserved first-place Cy votes, he has the same number of All-Star appearances as Mark Redman, and five years after his retirement the Royals still haven't inducted him into their Hall of Fame. Plus all those articles that wax on and on about Zack's being the "best Royals homegrown pitcher since Bret Saberhagen" that more or less forgot Appier's existence.
And looking at Appier's 1993 stats on BBRef and seeing that he led the league lead in ERA/ERA+ and HR/9--the same categories Zack has led the AL in all season--is a little eerie. Good to know that Kansas City has more enlightened sportswriters than 16 years ago, at least.
Great point, sw, about the lack of appreciation for Appier.
I think the tide is turning in Zack's favor. I was shocked to hear ESPN's Mike & Mike radio/tv show talking about him this morning - when Mike Golic is backing your Cy Young hopes, and saying wins aren't as important as the other numbers, I have to believe that meme is starting to seep out.
August 31, 2009 at 8:05 AM
Curtis said...
Faulty bullpen is definitely an issue - in any Greinke start in which a Royal reliever not named Soria has touched the rubber, they have lost.
Here's hoping for a September to match April and make the whole thing moot ....
If I was a Royals fan, with rumors of a Moore extension, I'm not sure if much else could keep me sane at this point except for the performance of Greinke.
Are you going to go deeper into the Royals prospects? I would like to see what you think of Bianchi?
Also I'm OK with Moore getting "more." He at least has the team spending. I like what we've done in the post Ladnier drafts. Maybe ownership makes him hire a stats guy....
Greg
August 31, 2009 at 10:11 AM
Anonymous said...
I can't believe the Royals, and every team between them and the Angels, passed on Scott Kazmir. 2 years, $20m? I'm pretty sure DM could shave $10m from this team (Jacobs, Crisp, bullpen, etc) by not offering arbitration to several people, and suddenly, we have a decent LHP, and the organization could stop signing Horacio Ramirez-types out of desperation for a LH starter. Come on, Royals, let's at least take advantage of the opportunities that present themselves and TRY to get better for next year.
Great outing by Zack, this definitely puts him back in the Cy Young hunt. He just needs 3 or 4 more wins and to win the strikeout race and I'm sure he will get it. If not, it's anyone's guess.
As for extending Dayton Moore, I would be firing him, if I owned the team, but since that is not going to happen yet, what is the rush to renew him. I don't think there are other teams out there trying to woo him to be their GM and if there are, let them have him!
Rany, according to baseball-reference, Greinke has given up 49 earned runs in 190&1/3 innings. If he had given up 42 in the same number of innings, his ERA would be 1.99. So here's the question: Can we find 7 runs that an average defense would have prevented? It's not a perfect correlation, of course, since a better defense would also allow fewer unearned runs and baserunners, cutting pitch count and letting him go more innings. But it would be fun to see fi there were 7 runs out there that most defenses would have prevented.
August 31, 2009 at 12:04 PM
Anonymous said...
I expect this question is likely to arise in the offseason, so might as well throw it out there. If you're the Royals, and your organization is in the state that it is in, do you consider trading Greinke for whatever motherload of a haul you can receive? He HAS to be considered amongst the most desirable contracts in all of baseball, and he clearly has made the leap as one of the true aces in the league. Granted, if you're a Royals fan, your history for trading off your best pieces hasn't exactly been stellar, but when you look at organizations like the Marlins, obviously some teams know how to do this right. Hypothetically speaking, if you could get a 'Marlins-like' return on Greinke, don't you have to do it (granted, for those of you who don't trust Dayton Moore with this option, you obviously have good reasons to scream NO)? It'd hurt to see Greinke throwing for any other club, but we may be just putting off the inevitable and given the state of the organization, the likelihood that we see him ever pitch for a competitive Royals squad is pretty slim.
August 31, 2009 at 1:37 PM
Anonymous said...
The Royals need to re-sign Olivo just to be Zach's personal catcher.
I doubt you could reasonably blame the Royals' poor defense for a third of a run of ERA. Greinke averages almost 10 strikeouts per nine innings, so he doesn't depend on his defense nearly as much as an ordinary pitcher.
August 31, 2009 at 3:08 PM
Anonymous said...
Too bad Greinke wasn't able to face his own team three or four times this year.
August 31, 2009 at 7:03 PM
Chuck said...
Well, as you contemplate your GMDM extension piece, you might start a new parlor game called "Guess Dayton Moore's next trade." What reasonable-to-good Royals prospect will be traded for a fading or overrated or just plain bad veteran? I say he's got time before the season's over to ship out Kila for Nomar Garciaparra.
OK, even I have to say that was too cynical.
August 31, 2009 at 9:46 PM
Anonymous said...
Rany,
Thanks for keeping your ranyontheroyals.com going. Its always a very nice treat when my RSS feed shows that you have a new article for me to read.
And I agree with everything you wrote, it would be very special if Zack could get the CY in an otherwise awful year for the Royals. And in retrospect I had no idea how much Appier got hosed back in the day.
A further example of the prowess Greinke shows on the mound is his ability to show up when it matters. I can't help but think that if we were a winning franchise, his ERA would be below 2. He has pitched much better this year when he had something to fight for.
At the beginning of the season, when the playoffs seemed like a reasonable possibility, his ERA was well below 1.
Then, when we started losing, he dropped off.
Right when Cy Young talks start, he realizes he has something to fight for again, and throws like an ace again.
If we were in a pennant race all year, there is no way his ERA would have increased like it did in the middle of the season. If he were playing for the Red Sox or Yankees, with their defense and pennant race, his ERA would be well below 2.
You Trojan Machiavelli of a Royals fan! Go back to the Red Sox front office where you came from and tell KLaw: Read our lips. You can't have him!
September 1, 2009 at 6:53 AM
Wabbitkiller said...
I know you wanted to avoid the Dayton Mooreon contract extension, but I can't. I absolutely FURIOUS, but not surprised that David Glass decided to award incompetence by granting the extension.
After all, David Glass is pretty damned incompetent when it comes to being an owner, so it's no surprise that he'd want to surround himself with equally incompetent executives.
Rany, Any insight on the Royals recently promoted to Burlington pitching prospect, Tony Pena Jr.? I almost fell out of my chair when I read that he picked up his first win Sunday. Sis ERA isn't bad at all and batting average is .171. I'm assuming that is average against him and not his own batting average...
September 1, 2009 at 10:19 AM
Comment deleted
This comment has been removed by the author.
September 1, 2009 at 10:19 AM
Anonymous said...
@Nathan -
"You Trojan Machiavelli of a Royals fan!"
That made me smile.
September 1, 2009 at 10:58 AM
blahblah said...
the good news: there are enough non-tender candidates between buck, the bullpen, and jacobs to off-set farnsworth's salary easily or perhaps guillen's if they really get aggressive. let's hope for one of them to get cut, because both is probably wishful thinking, after all, it is the royals we're talking about. swap out jacobs for kila, and most of the bullpen for minor leaguers, and i think it's safe to say (sorry buddy bell) the results couldn't be worse!
September 1, 2009 at 1:18 PM
Mike said...
As always, Rany, I love your writing, and look forward to your posts. It is a disappointment every morning that I wake up and check your site, which I have bookmarked, only to discover that you haven't written something new.
However, I really, really, really (with emphasis on really...lol) dislike the "Baseball Jonah" nickname you have bestowed upon Zack Greinke. There must be a better nickname for that kid.
Dwight Gooden was "Dr. K," but as Royals fans, we all know that a letter "Z" denotes a strikeout. With all of the Z's that are hung around Kauffman Stadium every time Zack pitches there, how about starting to call him "Dr. Z?"
You're an idiot, Jeff. And I will hunt you down if the Royals are ever contracted because of fools like you. Get some patience. Cubs fans have been waiting 100 freakin' years for a World Title. At least the Royals have one as recently as 1985. We don't want Royals fans like you, so go cheer for the Cards...
I again call upon you to no longer waste your mighty gifts upon the unwashed masses of Kansas City. The Royal minions have proven unworthy of your sabermetrical genius, as they long ago proved unworthy of mine.
You must abandon your futile quest to save this team which unrelentingly wallows in the Dark Ages of Baseball. Verily I say unto you that Kansas City will never accept the Gospel of the Three True Outcomes, nor accept the Truth of On Base Percentage. Forever will they dwell in the Hell of the Second Division!
Come, Rany, join me and follow the glorious path of the men who wear Red on their feet. Aid me in my quest to lead the mighty host from Boston in its quest to conquer the baseball universe! Together we will crush the Evil Empire of New York and the False Prophet and Persecutor of Sabermetricians, Moore of Kansas City!
Is there some way we can arrange an ownership trade like what the LA Rams and the Baltimore Colts did back in the '70's. Maybe we can get say..the Marlins owners, and David Glass end up owning the Marlins.
Since he seemingly is backdoor arranging a move of the Royals to Arkansas via the method the fictional owner in the movie Major League did, by making the team so bad that their own fans turn on them. He can do that to the Marlins fan (s?) as Glass would be moving a team that has very few real fans, rather than a team that may draw almost 2 million people to see one of the 50 worst teams of the modern era, the '09 Royals.
Judging by Jeff's post, David Glass' plan is working to perfection as the Moore extension is actively pissing off the die hard fans. Sure almost two million people will come out to see the new stadium this year, but after 3 more 90-100 loss seasons that are now in the works, how many will come in 2013, 800K? 650K? At some point the fan base just gives up, and I fear we are close to that point. In 2014, no one under the age of 40 will remember the last time the Royals made the playoffs.
This may be my anger talking, but I feel Glass's extension of Moore at this time is indefensible and I fear it will ultimately lead to the team being moved from from Kansas City due to the complete alienation of the fan base.
I went to the 15 strikeout game, set next to diamond back scout next to yankee scout behind mets scout, and tigers scout they were there to see Zack. Scored Zack an 80 on the 20 to 80 scale. They knew nothing about almost all the other royals players. Enjoy him while we have him.
September 2, 2009 at 3:39 AM
Anonymous said...
"Well at least we got that going for us. Which is nice."
Shouldn't we trade Greinke at peak value and try to duplicate the Marlins' trade of Beckett for Hanley Ramirez?
Isn't a top level position player at a premium position more valuable than a top level pitcher (who also is more vulnerable to injury)?
September 2, 2009 at 7:52 PM
Sal said...
Once agin, the KC training staff strikes. Bannister is quoted as saying he's been battling shoulder fatigue for a month, but we keep throwing him out there in a menaingless stretch of the season.
September 2, 2009 at 9:36 PM
Anonymous said...
Zack "The Experience" Greinke
September 2, 2009 at 10:51 PM
Anonymous said...
There's really no need to sit Banny until we're 100% certain that shoulder is shredded beyond repair.
Alright, let’s talk about something positive for a change. I’m halfway through a piece breaking down the Dayton Moore contract extension rumors, but it’s a lot more fun to talk about Zack Greinke instead. As everyone knows, Greinke struck out 15 batters last Tuesday, becoming the first pitcher in the 40-year history of the franchise to do so. Most every Royals fan knows about the fact that no one on the team has ever hit more than 36 homers, but the fact that no Royals pitcher had ever struck out 15 batters has long been a nearly equally embarrassing factoid for me. Just as the Royals have never had a truly dominant power hitter, the lack of a 15-K start points to a lack of a truly dominant power pitcher throughout the franchise’s history. Steve Busby was, briefly, and he probably would have reached the 15-K plateau at some point, but his arm was shredded after just three seasons. Dennis Leonard was perhaps the closest the Royals have come, at least in 1977, when he struck out 244 batters, a franchise record that has never been challenged until this year. That season Leonard struck out 13 twice, 12 once, 11 once, and 10 twice, but never more than that. And in recent years, Kevin Appier certainly had the ability – he once struck out 13 batters in just 5.2 innings – but his propensity for high pitch counts made it difficult for him to stay in long enough to amass 15 strikeouts. But on one otherwise non-descript Tuesday evening in yet another wasted Royals season, Greinke washed away 40 years of history, and all you need to know about Greinke is that I was neither surprised nor all that impressed by his accomplishment. Okay, I was impressed in the sense that Greinke is always impressive, but there was no sense of astonishment or wonder from my perspective. On the contrary, the way Greinke has thrown since about this time last year, I thought a 15-strikeout start was almost inevitable. I didn’t think he could have a start like this – I thought he would have a start like this, and it was just a matter of time. It just so happened that August 25th was the date. Greinke has made the extraordinary look absolutely commonplace, and there’s no greater compliment I can pay him than to say that when he set an all-time Royals record, I didn’t even flinch. But I must say, for him to follow up his 15-strikeout performance with a one-hit shutout…for him to follow up a performance never before duplicated by a Royal with a performance that was last done in 1995...okay, even the Baseball Jonah’s biggest fan is impressed by that. If Greinke makes the extraordinary look commonplace, he also makes the inconceivable look merely impressive. You may have seen the list of pitchers who have followed up a 15-strikeout performance with a one-hit complete game in their next start. It’s a short list – Greinke is just the fourth pitcher to do so, after Pedro Martinez in 1999, Randy Johnson in 1998, and Vida Blue in 1971. That’s two sure-fire Hall of Famers and Blue, who might be in the Hall of Fame today if he weren’t too good for his own good: that season, Blue went 24-8 with a 1.82 ERA and won the MVP award – and threw 312 innings at the age of 21. He would never pitch that effectively again, and he won only 18 games after his age 32 season. (He’s still the answer to that great trivia question: who’s the last switch-hitter to win the AL MVP award?) I think it’s telling that Greinke once again shows up on a short list with Pedro Martinez, given that I had compared the two extensively early in the season. As it turns out, Greinke could not keep up with Pedro’s pace from 1999-2000, which is less a failure of Greinke than it is a testament to how otherworldly Martinez was during those two seasons. Martinez’s dominance extends to this comparison as well, because while Greinke followed a 15-strikeout start with a one-hitter, he whiffed just five batters on Sunday afternoon. Martinez struck out 15 batters in eight scoreless innings in Seattle on September 4th, but the one-hitter he threw in his next start remains one of the most dominant pitching performances of all time; he gave up a solo homer to Chili Davis, but he also struck out 17 that day. His game score was 98; since 1954, that is the highest game score for a pitcher who surrendered a run (and didn’t pitch into extra innings.) But if Greinke can’t quite match up to peak Pedro, he still stands taller than every other pitcher in baseball today. After a period of time where Greinke looked almost mortal, Sunday’s start extends a stretch where Greinke has almost returned to the unhittable form he showed at the start of the season. In Part 1 - his first ten starts - Greinke was 8-1 with an 0.84 ERA, and allowed just 54 hits and 12 walks in 75 innings. But from May 31st – yes, the day I flew to Kansas City to see him in person – through August 8th, he was positively mortal, with a 3.84 ERA in that span. He was betrayed by his teammates on both ends. Defensively, his ERA was inflated by a defense that could not turn batted balls into outs. In 84 innings, Greinke walked just 21 batters and struck out 86, and allowed only seven homers, but thanks to his defense he gave up a whopping 96 hits in that span. And offensively, the Royals scored just 42 runs in 13 starts (12 of those in one game), saddling Greinke with a 3-6 record. But much as Greinke pitches better the deeper he works into a ballgame, he’s pitching better as the season enters the home stretch. Part 3 of Greinke's season started on August 14th, and over his last four starts Greinke has allowed just 15 hits in 31 innings, with 35 Ks against just seven walks, and a 1.74 ERA in that span. He now leads the AL in ERA by 45 points; he has snatched the WHIP crown back from Jarrod Washburn; he leads the league in fewest homers per nine innings; he’s second to Justin Verlander in strikeouts; he’s second to C.C. Sabathia in innings pitched. He had five Ks and just one walk on Sunday, and his K/BB ratio actually went down. Yes, he’s just 13-8. But I think that those who are writing off his chances of winning the Cy Young Award are doing so prematurely. I don’t simply mean that it’s premature to write Greinke’s chances off because there’s still time for him to win his last six starts and get back into this thing. I mean that even if the season ended today, there’s a very good chance that his weak showing in the historically-decisive win-loss department might get trumped by his across-the-board dominance in every other category. For one thing, while Greinke has only 13 wins going into September, he’s still just two behind Sabathia, and just one behind Verlander, Josh Beckett, and Scott (!) Feldman. There’s a reasonable chance that no one in the AL will win 20 games. Those who are saying that Greinke’s case is hopeless because starting pitchers can’t win the Cy Young award with just 16 or 17 victories ignore the fact that this is shaping up to be a year where the gap between 16 wins and the league lead just isn’t that great. Brandon Webb won the NL Cy Young in 2006 with just 16 wins…in large part because somehow, 16 wins was enough to lead the league. If Greinke wins 16 games and Sabathia wins 19, there’s a good chance that Greinke’s edge in every other category can overcome Sabathia’s edge in wins. If Sabathia or someone else tips the magic “20” barrier, the psychological impression that will make on some voters will be much harder to overcome. Second, while Greinke may not have a lot of wins, he has every other counting statistic on his side. He has 190 innings, just two behind Sabathia; no one can accuse him of not being a workhorse. With his performance on Sunday, he now has more complete games (6) and more shutouts (3) than any other pitcher in the major leagues. This isn’t a Chris Carpenter situation, where voters will have to judge the merits of a pitcher who might have been more effective on a per-inning basis but wasn’t able to answer the bell every fifth day. When it comes to Cy Young voting, availability matters almost as much as ability; Greinke has both.(It's worth noting that according to ESPN's Cy Young Predictor, based on a formula Bill James presented in The Neyer/James Guide to Pitchers, Greinke has edged back into first place.) And finally, we have to acknowledge that award voters are, generally speaking, a lot more savvy than they used to be. I have made the mistake of giving BBWAA members too much credit in the past – I still can’t believe Tim Raines has appeared on barely a quarter of Hall of Fame ballots the last two years – but I honestly think that Cy Young voters are more inclined to consider the extenuating circumstances for Greinke than they would in the past. I’ve pointed this out before, but 16 years ago, Kevin Appier led the AL in ERA by 38 points, won 18 games, finished second in the league in WHIP and hits per nine innings, and by any advanced metric you chose was clearly the best pitcher in the AL. He finished a distant third in Cy Young voting, behind Jack McDowell and Randy Johnson. McDowell had a 3.37 ERA – he wasn’t in the league’s top 10 – but went 22-10, and no other AL starter reached 20 wins. Johnson led the league in strikeouts, but he went 19-8 with a 3.24 ERA, compared to Appier’s 18-8 and 2.46 ERA. Apparently that one extra win trumped more than 75 points of ERA. (Not only that, but in McDowell’s 34 starts, the White Sox went 23-11 overall. In Appier’s 34 starts, the Royals went…23-11. So Appier didn’t miss out on the Cy Young because his team wasn’t as successful as McDowell’s team was – he missed out on the Cy Young because some of those team wins were awarded to his reliever. He was denied the Cy Young, in other words, because of an accounting decision.) The reason I point this out is that the most galling aspect of Appier’s disappointing finish in the Cy Young vote is that he received just one first-place vote, from then-Rangers beat writer Phil Rogers. That’s right – neither writer from the KC chapter of the BBWAA gave Appier a first-place vote. Both of them swallowed the conventional wisdom about pitcher wins hook, like, and sinker. Well, this year I have it on good authority that one of the Cy Young ballots goes to this guy. Times have changed, and I’d like to think for the better. There’s still a lot of baseball to be played, and a memorable September in either direction could render this whole discussion moot. But I think this is going to be a very close Cy Young vote. And my hope is that while Greinke may not win a majority of first-place votes, he may receive a plurality of them, as the anti-Greinke voting bloc gets split up between two or three different candidates (Scott Feldman for Cy Young!) Ultimately it really doesn’t matter if Greinke wins; awards are fun, but success on the field is what matters. But since we’re not having much of the latter, it would be nice if we could have some of the former to keep this season from being a total loss. Now that the Joe Mauer-for-MVP train has left the station, it’s time to hop aboard the Zack Greinke-for-Cy Young express. So get out there and remind people that Greinke is, indisputably, the best pitcher in the American League. Remind people that his 13-8 record is the result of having the worst run support of any qualifying major league starter. Remind people that his 2.32 ERA, as impressive as it is, is actually inflated significantly by pitching in front of the defense with the worst defensive efficiency in all of baseball. (This is an underplayed theme, by the way – everyone is harping on his win-loss record, but it’s not hyperbole to suggest that, with an even average defense behind him, Greinke’s ERA could be in the 1’s right now, and it would be almost impossible to deny him the Cy Young vote.) With five weeks left in the season, it’s far from clear whether Greinke is the AL’s Cy Young pitcher. What is clear is that he is the AL’s best pitcher, and just as clear is that he is the property of the Kansas City Royals for three more seasons after this one. Whatever else you want to say about the 2009 season, if 2009 is also the season when Zack Greinke took his place among the elite players in the game, it wasn’t a total loss.
"Zack Greinke, Part III: Return of the Jonah."
38 Comments -
they don't have his shut outs correct on that cy young award predictor.. it lists his as 2 but he has 3.. so he should have an even larger lead in all reality..
August 31, 2009 at 2:01 AM
Great piece, Rany. Although I can't help but add the worst bullpen in the AL as contributors to Zack's faulty W-L record. Zack was in line to win 4 games that were blown by the pen literally within ten minutes of coming on in "relief." If they held just two of those four, presto, he's tied with Sabathia and Verlander for the league lead in wins even with the wretched run support.
And could Kevin Appier be more underappreciated? His own local beatwriters deny him deserved first-place Cy votes, he has the same number of All-Star appearances as Mark Redman, and five years after his retirement the Royals still haven't inducted him into their Hall of Fame. Plus all those articles that wax on and on about Zack's being the "best Royals homegrown pitcher since Bret Saberhagen" that more or less forgot Appier's existence.
And looking at Appier's 1993 stats on BBRef and seeing that he led the league lead in ERA/ERA+ and HR/9--the same categories Zack has led the AL in all season--is a little eerie. Good to know that Kansas City has more enlightened sportswriters than 16 years ago, at least.
August 31, 2009 at 4:08 AM
Great point, sw, about the lack of appreciation for Appier.
I think the tide is turning in Zack's favor. I was shocked to hear ESPN's Mike & Mike radio/tv show talking about him this morning - when Mike Golic is backing your Cy Young hopes, and saying wins aren't as important as the other numbers, I have to believe that meme is starting to seep out.
August 31, 2009 at 8:05 AM
Faulty bullpen is definitely an issue - in any Greinke start in which a Royal reliever not named Soria has touched the rubber, they have lost.
Here's hoping for a September to match April and make the whole thing moot ....
August 31, 2009 at 8:54 AM
If I was a Royals fan, with rumors of a Moore extension, I'm not sure if much else could keep me sane at this point except for the performance of Greinke.
August 31, 2009 at 9:04 AM
Are you going to go deeper into the Royals prospects? I would like to see what you think of Bianchi?
Also I'm OK with Moore getting "more." He at least has the team spending. I like what we've done in the post Ladnier drafts. Maybe ownership makes him hire a stats guy....
Greg
August 31, 2009 at 10:11 AM
I can't believe the Royals, and every team between them and the Angels, passed on Scott Kazmir. 2 years, $20m? I'm pretty sure DM could shave $10m from this team (Jacobs, Crisp, bullpen, etc) by not offering arbitration to several people, and suddenly, we have a decent LHP, and the organization could stop signing Horacio Ramirez-types out of desperation for a LH starter. Come on, Royals, let's at least take advantage of the opportunities that present themselves and TRY to get better for next year.
August 31, 2009 at 10:24 AM
Great outing by Zack, this definitely puts him back in the Cy Young hunt. He just needs 3 or 4 more wins and to win the strikeout race and I'm sure he will get it. If not, it's anyone's guess.
As for extending Dayton Moore, I would be firing him, if I owned the team, but since that is not going to happen yet, what is the rush to renew him. I don't think there are other teams out there trying to woo him to be their GM and if there are, let them have him!
August 31, 2009 at 11:42 AM
Rany, according to baseball-reference, Greinke has given up 49 earned runs in 190&1/3 innings. If he had given up 42 in the same number of innings, his ERA would be 1.99. So here's the question: Can we find 7 runs that an average defense would have prevented?
It's not a perfect correlation, of course, since a better defense would also allow fewer unearned runs and baserunners, cutting pitch count and letting him go more innings. But it would be fun to see fi there were 7 runs out there that most defenses would have prevented.
August 31, 2009 at 12:04 PM
I expect this question is likely to arise in the offseason, so might as well throw it out there. If you're the Royals, and your organization is in the state that it is in, do you consider trading Greinke for whatever motherload of a haul you can receive? He HAS to be considered amongst the most desirable contracts in all of baseball, and he clearly has made the leap as one of the true aces in the league. Granted, if you're a Royals fan, your history for trading off your best pieces hasn't exactly been stellar, but when you look at organizations like the Marlins, obviously some teams know how to do this right. Hypothetically speaking, if you could get a 'Marlins-like' return on Greinke, don't you have to do it (granted, for those of you who don't trust Dayton Moore with this option, you obviously have good reasons to scream NO)? It'd hurt to see Greinke throwing for any other club, but we may be just putting off the inevitable and given the state of the organization, the likelihood that we see him ever pitch for a competitive Royals squad is pretty slim.
August 31, 2009 at 1:37 PM
The Royals need to re-sign Olivo just to be Zach's personal catcher.
August 31, 2009 at 2:27 PM
I doubt you could reasonably blame the Royals' poor defense for a third of a run of ERA. Greinke averages almost 10 strikeouts per nine innings, so he doesn't depend on his defense nearly as much as an ordinary pitcher.
August 31, 2009 at 3:08 PM
Too bad Greinke wasn't able to face his own team three or four times this year.
August 31, 2009 at 7:03 PM
Well, as you contemplate your GMDM extension piece, you might start a new parlor game called "Guess Dayton Moore's next trade." What reasonable-to-good Royals prospect will be traded for a fading or overrated or just plain bad veteran? I say he's got time before the season's over to ship out Kila for Nomar Garciaparra.
OK, even I have to say that was too cynical.
August 31, 2009 at 9:46 PM
Rany,
Thanks for keeping your ranyontheroyals.com going. Its always a very nice treat when my RSS feed shows that you have a new article for me to read.
And I agree with everything you wrote, it would be very special if Zack could get the CY in an otherwise awful year for the Royals. And in retrospect I had no idea how much Appier got hosed back in the day.
Keep up the good work.
Jeff
August 31, 2009 at 11:00 PM
A further example of the prowess Greinke shows on the mound is his ability to show up when it matters. I can't help but think that if we were a winning franchise, his ERA would be below 2. He has pitched much better this year when he had something to fight for.
At the beginning of the season, when the playoffs seemed like a reasonable possibility, his ERA was well below 1.
Then, when we started losing, he dropped off.
Right when Cy Young talks start, he realizes he has something to fight for again, and throws like an ace again.
If we were in a pennant race all year, there is no way his ERA would have increased like it did in the middle of the season. If he were playing for the Red Sox or Yankees, with their defense and pennant race, his ERA would be well below 2.
August 31, 2009 at 11:31 PM
Anonymous@1:37pm,
You Trojan Machiavelli of a Royals fan! Go back to the Red Sox front office where you came from and tell KLaw: Read our lips. You can't have him!
September 1, 2009 at 6:53 AM
I know you wanted to avoid the Dayton Mooreon contract extension, but I can't. I absolutely FURIOUS, but not surprised that David Glass decided to award incompetence by granting the extension.
After all, David Glass is pretty damned incompetent when it comes to being an owner, so it's no surprise that he'd want to surround himself with equally incompetent executives.
I guess there's always 2015 to look forward to...
September 1, 2009 at 8:03 AM
Rany,
Any insight on the Royals recently promoted to Burlington pitching prospect, Tony Pena Jr.? I almost fell out of my chair when I read that he picked up his first win Sunday. Sis ERA isn't bad at all and batting average is .171. I'm assuming that is average against him and not his own batting average...
September 1, 2009 at 10:19 AM
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September 1, 2009 at 10:19 AM
@Nathan -
"You Trojan Machiavelli of a Royals fan!"
That made me smile.
September 1, 2009 at 10:58 AM
the good news: there are enough non-tender candidates between buck, the bullpen, and jacobs to off-set farnsworth's salary easily or perhaps guillen's if they really get aggressive. let's hope for one of them to get cut, because both is probably wishful thinking, after all, it is the royals we're talking about. swap out jacobs for kila, and most of the bullpen for minor leaguers, and i think it's safe to say (sorry buddy bell) the results couldn't be worse!
September 1, 2009 at 1:18 PM
As always, Rany, I love your writing, and look forward to your posts. It is a disappointment every morning that I wake up and check your site, which I have bookmarked, only to discover that you haven't written something new.
However, I really, really, really (with emphasis on really...lol) dislike the "Baseball Jonah" nickname you have bestowed upon Zack Greinke. There must be a better nickname for that kid.
Dwight Gooden was "Dr. K," but as Royals fans, we all know that a letter "Z" denotes a strikeout. With all of the Z's that are hung around Kauffman Stadium every time Zack pitches there, how about starting to call him "Dr. Z?"
September 1, 2009 at 1:25 PM
Let's put the Royals out of their misery forever.
http://www.petitionspot.com/petitions/putkcroyalsdown
September 1, 2009 at 2:19 PM
You're an idiot, Jeff. And I will hunt you down if the Royals are ever contracted because of fools like you. Get some patience. Cubs fans have been waiting 100 freakin' years for a World Title. At least the Royals have one as recently as 1985. We don't want Royals fans like you, so go cheer for the Cards...
September 1, 2009 at 5:13 PM
Rany,
I again call upon you to no longer waste your mighty gifts upon the unwashed masses of Kansas City. The Royal minions have proven unworthy of your sabermetrical genius, as they long ago proved unworthy of mine.
You must abandon your futile quest to save this team which unrelentingly wallows in the Dark Ages of Baseball. Verily I say unto you that Kansas City will never accept the Gospel of the Three True Outcomes, nor accept the Truth of On Base Percentage. Forever will they dwell in the Hell of the Second Division!
Come, Rany, join me and follow the glorious path of the men who wear Red on their feet. Aid me in my quest to lead the mighty host from Boston in its quest to conquer the baseball universe! Together we will crush the Evil Empire of New York and the False Prophet and Persecutor of Sabermetricians, Moore of Kansas City!
September 1, 2009 at 5:29 PM
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September 1, 2009 at 9:21 PM
Is there some way we can arrange an ownership trade like what the LA Rams and the Baltimore Colts did back in the '70's. Maybe we can get say..the Marlins owners, and David Glass end up owning the Marlins.
Since he seemingly is backdoor arranging a move of the Royals to Arkansas via the method the fictional owner in the movie Major League did, by making the team so bad that their own fans turn on them. He can do that to the Marlins fan (s?) as Glass would be moving a team that has very few real fans, rather than a team that may draw almost 2 million people to see one of the 50 worst teams of the modern era, the '09 Royals.
Judging by Jeff's post, David Glass' plan is working to perfection as the Moore extension is actively pissing off the die hard fans. Sure almost two million people will come out to see the new stadium this year, but after 3 more 90-100 loss seasons that are now in the works, how many will come in 2013, 800K? 650K? At some point the fan base just gives up, and I fear we are close to that point. In 2014, no one under the age of 40 will remember the last time the Royals made the playoffs.
This may be my anger talking, but I feel Glass's extension of Moore at this time is indefensible and I fear it will ultimately lead to the team being moved from from Kansas City due to the complete alienation of the fan base.
September 1, 2009 at 9:34 PM
Ownership Trade Rams Colts
September 1, 2009 at 9:49 PM
I went to the 15 strikeout game, set next to diamond back scout next to yankee scout behind mets scout, and tigers scout they were there to see Zack. Scored Zack an 80 on the 20 to 80 scale. They knew nothing about almost all the other royals players. Enjoy him while we have him.
September 2, 2009 at 3:39 AM
"Well at least we got that going for us. Which is nice."
September 2, 2009 at 2:56 PM
What happened to Bannister?
September 2, 2009 at 3:39 PM
Shouldn't we trade Greinke at peak value and try to duplicate the Marlins' trade of Beckett for Hanley Ramirez?
Isn't a top level position player at a premium position more valuable than a top level pitcher (who also is more vulnerable to injury)?
September 2, 2009 at 7:52 PM
Once agin, the KC training staff strikes. Bannister is quoted as saying he's been battling shoulder fatigue for a month, but we keep throwing him out there in a menaingless stretch of the season.
September 2, 2009 at 9:36 PM
Zack "The Experience" Greinke
September 2, 2009 at 10:51 PM
There's really no need to sit Banny until we're 100% certain that shoulder is shredded beyond repair.
September 3, 2009 at 6:46 AM
I agree with Anonymous at 6:46.
Sincerely,
Dayton F**king Moore
September 3, 2009 at 10:27 AM
Contract the Royals
http://www.petitionspot.com/petitions/putkcroyalsdown
September 8, 2009 at 10:28 AM