Isn't there something better to talk about after a two-week dry spell?
...ok, perhaps not.
September 16, 2010 at 5:50 PM
GregN said...
Took a pause after the Betemit section to write this:
1. As a subscriber to Sheehan (thanks to your suggestion), I did not receive the exchange between you two. What am I, chopped liver?
2. As a Sox fan, I couldn't agree more with your hope for a Betemit extension, especially if they play him anywhere in the field. We're stuck with Teahan and misery loves company.
What?! Nothing about the most exciting thing going on with the Royals Northwest Arkansas?
Who ever does thier twitter updates does a great job. With only 140 characters they convey tension, excitement and detail.
The first three months of the 2011 season are going to be brutal, but if the royals can spend very little money very wisely, it will give us all something ot look forward to for years.
This just in from 1990: There is no such thing as a pitching prospect!
If three of those five guys aren't ready in 2012, it's not a disaster, it's business as usual. A good team needs more than five good starting pitchers.
September 16, 2010 at 8:14 PM
Anonymous said...
Given your last sentence, what does it say about Kenny Williams' ex-Royals fetish? The White Sox don't appeared to have suffered for it.
September 16, 2010 at 9:17 PM
Anonymous said...
Re: Betemit -- I understand your point, but I don't have a committed position on this. If the Royals do not offer him arbitration, then that is foolish. But if I am the Royals, I might at least go through arbitration and see how he does in Spring Training. As long as you make the move before opening day, it would not be too late (though admittedly I have no idea about the status of MLB contracts). But three years is a long time, and even if he could play RF now, he may not be able to do so in 2 years. At that time, we will not have the DH space to hold him. The best argument I can come up with for keeping him is that old "you need a veteran in the middle of the lineup" argument. When Moose comes up, we will again need more protection for him (though it would be nice if some of the other bats are going too -- I'm talking to you, Kila). The bat is good, and that he is a switch hitter makes him pretty useful. But 1B utility player is so unnecessary on this team, it is not even funny. If he cannot play the field, you cannot count on him. You can only put him at DH if you give up on Kila. That's the potential cost.
Re: Chen -- The guy is fine, but I really do not care if he comes back. Because he is LH, he might get a team to pay him more than what he is worth. Your proposal is good, but I have a feeling others might also look at him. I hope Dayton does the same thing as last year: pick up a lot of minor league arms that can fill in for no cost until the other guys come up. And yes, I love Banny too, but he is clearly at the end of his rope.
Re: Pena -- I'm speechless. The pitchers seem to work well with him too...
How come GMDM's fetish for Braves didn't apply to Kelly Johnson? I'd have taken his line over Chris Getz's any day... and for a relatively meager sum of 2.35mil+ per year.
September 16, 2010 at 11:47 PM
Ted said...
Betemit = bargain bet. And if he finishes the season leading the current roster in HR he gets to walk in to Dayton's office to sign his contract in his underwear.
September 17, 2010 at 1:05 AM
PathetiKCfancB said...
Rany, Did u read my tweet last night. People ask and you shall receive. Rany either knowingly or subconsciously has answered my tweet requests with articles being released the following day! Anyway to the point I do agree with your points here. Betemit has shown me over the course of the season that he can at the least be a utility player with very good power. At the best I think you have Raul ibanez. I bet we could get him 3 yrs for 3 bills. We know worse money has been spent by the royals. Bruce Chen appears to be getting better production this year than he should be. I could go either way on resigning him. I might wait and see how low you can get him for once winter meetings conclude. I think 1 for 1 is appropriate. Finally Pena does need to start next year with may backing up. I would have preferred to have kept Buck and Pena last year, but obviously it's too late for that. But if Pena can hold the position until Myers is ready that would be awesome! That is if Myers can stick at catcher. Otherwise he just comes up and takes betemits spot.
September 17, 2010 at 1:18 AM
Mitch said...
The problem with putting Betemit in the outfield on a semi-permanent basis over the next two to three years is that it does block some players that should at least have some kind of shot at playing regular outfield for the Royals.
Assuming you get DeJesus back, and Gordon still plays left field, you have Jarrod Dyson and Gregor Blanco to play center field. Let's not forget Mitch Maier and Jai Miller... though I'm pretty sure the Royals will come October.
Then you have David Lough in Omaha, and if Kila and Billy continue to improve, most people think Hosmer would be moved to the outfield.
That seems like a large glut of outfielders to me for only, at best, five positions on the roster. Even as a super-utility player, he's limited to four positions, and right now, KC is deep at all of them if you add in DD. You compare his production to Teahen's, but the missing comparison is the defense. I don't have numbers in front of me, but you said Betemit was sub-par at third, and in the one game I went to this year, he committed an error that led to Zack Greinke going from a no-hitter to a loss in one inning.
I mean, Bloomquist didn't have the bat, but he at least had the glove. Two years, $4.0 million. He's done enough for that, and after those years, everyone will know if he's the real deal and worth keeping around when all the "superstars" should arrive.
September 17, 2010 at 1:37 AM
PathetiKCfancB said...
P.S. Does it seem obvious based on who is going to AZ instructional league that they want some people to develop faster than normal? I mean I think myers is going to hopefully continue progressing at his catchers position so they don't have to hopefully switch him to OF. Because as of right now his bat is so advanced he is getting to the point that his bat is going to be ready by 2012, and you wont be able to hold it out of the majors. But that bat at catcher would just be sick...dare I say Maueresque. Then obviously crow was disappointing especially after his spring training where people were thinking he may break with the major league club. I think they are hopin this extra work can get him up by sept 2012. Finally I think the club was slightly disappointed with Colon's season. It looks like offensively the combo of Wilmington's park and getting adjusted to the minors just gave him an icee start as I seem to remember him heating up as the season progressed. I think they want to keep that improvement coming as well as maybe cleanup the errors defensively. Sorry about my long posts! Reading Rany is rubbing off on me I guess.
September 17, 2010 at 1:38 AM
Anonymous said...
If Kila has done well enough to deserve a shot at starting next season, Betemit deserves one too--no matter the position. If Betemit replicates what he's done in the latter half of '10, he's a keeper at all costs. KEEP THE GUYS WHO CAN HIT!
I think Moustakas should make the team out of ST. Hey, the Royals have nothing to lose by bringing up a kid who has done everything statistically in the minors that was expected of him. 2011 should be a full season in the majors for Moustakas...he should be done with wasting time in the minors.
I agree with Tony, the Royals are loaded at NW Arkansas. Even some of the "marginal" players there should get a look in KC. Clint Robinson won the Triple Crown...he deserves a serious look in ST, no matter the complications it might mean for the Royals.
As I said, the Royals have nothing to lose. For once, they have a bounty of talented players right under their noses. If I were GMDM, I'd forgo the free agent market completely. After all, what good has that done other than to end up spending yet another season trying not to land in last place?
Betemit definitely deserves a contract of some kind (whether its 2 or 3 years I don't know). He has played SS as recently as 2 years ago, but I can imagine it wouldn't be pretty. He is a better utility man that Bloomquist (and now I'm stuck with him out here in Cincinnati for the rest of the year). Betemit and Fields split time at 3rd until Moustakas is ready, maybe by June. If either Betemit or Fields get hot, then there is the trade piece at the deadline.
If you can't trade them, then you have nice power bats off the bench. We also don't know if Kila is going to amount to anything. So the DH/1B spot could still be open until Hosmer/C.Robinson are ready.
If Chen can be brought back for a year or 2 at 1 mil a year, you have to do that. He will make for a good #5 starter, and swingman if any of the youngins' are ready. The way the bullpen is shaping up, there should be no need to spend money there. Soria, Meche, Wood, Tejeda, Collins, Hardy, Coleman is the bullpen out of spring training.
Pena is a serviceable catcher, nothing special. He can keep the seat warm until Perez or hopefully Myers is ready. I think Perez would be ready by the beginning of 2012, but Myers probably not until 2013. I would love to see Myers bat in the big leagues sooner, but Catcher is a premium position.
I'd resign Betemit. And I think some of the commentators here might do well to escape a last-place-team frame of mind over the next couple of years. There's not a contending team in baseball that would forgo Betemit just to preserve playing time for Jai Miller and Mitch Meier. Those guys are handy to have around as stopgaps, but my no means are they pivotal to the future.
I wouldn't mind seeing Betemit in RF for next year, but that outfield would look pretty slow. Gordon, DDJ, Betemit? And like somebody said, there are alot of nice looking outfielders that will deserve a chance by the start of 2012. Lough, Parraz, Dyson, Miller to start, then D.Robinson, Orlando, Smith, and others later.
Do we try and resign DDJ for 3 more years, or just pick up his option for next year? He is a very serviceable above avg outfielder, but he is getting a little older.
September 17, 2010 at 9:03 AM
Anonymous said...
I'm sure I'll be in the minority on this - but I advocate signing a good SP this offseason. I'm willing to live with the position players we have (or soon will have), and I like all the pitching prospects coming soon, but the current rotation is SO thin, I think it would be banking on too much to expect all the prospects to pan out and suddenly have a contending rotation in 2012 or 2013. Supplement Greinke with another good pitcher (a legit #2 or #3)
September 17, 2010 at 9:36 AM
Anonymous said...
bruce chen is ok be a good signing but I think there needs to be another strong arm with Grenke for next year, especially since Menche is KO'd. I like Betemit also. Why not sign him. The Royals have no one else that is a long ball threat at all. Gordon Blanco/Meier and Betemit would be a decent outfield. DeJesus has to fit in there somewhere as well.
I wish Kila was showing signs of major league player but looks like 2nd coming of Shealy. If nothing else - betemit could take some 1B/DH time.
I haven't done a great deal of digging on Brayan Pena, yet. But if anyone recalls, ZIPS projected him to be better than both Olivio and Buck last year. Brayan Pena has proven over the last several years that he can be a solid major league ball player. His plate discipline is very good, and he has good power. Anyone who isn't emotionally involved in the "youth movement" might pause to consider if Myers will move positions BECAUSE Pena is a better option. Pena was better than Buck or Olivio last year; and both Buck and Olivio were All-Star candidates this year. Pena threw one of the fastest guys in the majors out from his knees the other day. Pena hasn't had a major problem with passed balls either.
As for Betemit. He's a keeper. He's not Teahen, I have a long write-up on him here: http://jrmcneal.blogspot.com/2010/07/alberto-callaspo-vs-wilson-betemit.html
3 years 12 million? 3 years 10 million? I would absolutely take the gamble on this guy. Assuming he's a good club house guy, that is. Good club house guys create an atmosphere guys like Greinke want to stick around for. In fact, I would sign him for a "crazy" 7 years and 18 million dollars. He can be the number 4 hitter for the next 3 years, maybe by that time Myers, Hosmer, or Moustakas will be ready for that role.
This idea that Hosmer/Moustakas/Myers is going to be awesome right when they get to the Majors is super optimistic at best and probably just stupid. Moustakas will probably not be the number 3/4 hitter until 2013. And even that's a BIG maybe. Moustakas has plate discipline issues. Plus, he needs time to settle into the major leagues as a 7, 8, or 9 hitter. Furthermore, he shouldn't be rushed. Bring him up next year as a September call-up so he can be on the same time table as the rest of the group.
September 17, 2010 at 1:38 PM
Nick Cola said...
Another point that needs to be addressed with the ex-Braves fetish is Ned Yost. While I like Ned much better than Trey, I still advocated for Buck Showalter to be hired as he was available at the time Hillman was fired. Baltimore is 11 games over .500 since he took over which is no small miracle since they were 32-73 when he took over. A stern manager like Showalter, who lays down the law and tells his young players who are used to a culture of losing that, "it stops here, we are going to play the right way and be successful" would have really been appreciated around here I think.
September 17, 2010 at 3:46 PM
grafe said...
It could definitely be for real. Look at Phil Nevin, former 1st overall pick who never did anything until he was 28 years old and ended up having a pretty good career. Betemit is the same age as Nevin was when he broke out and he's certainly never played this well before (he was good for the Braves and Dodgers though which I think is another thing that could show that this is for real).
OK, one question about Kendall. Is it possible, as shredded as his rotator cuff was, that it's been torn up a lot longer, and this recent injury finally made him go get it looked at? His hitting got worse in 2005, then a lot worse after 2007. And he's never been great at throwing out runners, but in 2005 he got a lot worse. He was decent in 2008 (43%) but other than that, since 2005 he's been throwing like Johnny Damon.
Kendall also turned 32 in 2005, and even Johnny Bench aged badly after age 32. But the sudden loss of all power and all ability to throw out runners is suspicious.
September 17, 2010 at 10:06 PM
Anonymous said...
Good post, Rany.
I do disagree with one comment, however-I don't think that if "3 of our 5 top pitching prospects aren't in the rotation by 2012, something's gone wrong." as you said.
I think it's more reasonable that one or maybe two of them (my bet is on Monty and Duffy) can be up sometime next year and rotation regulars by 2012, but the nature of prospects is such that there is a high failure rate.
Two of the other guys (probably Lamb and Dwyer) will not be ready by 2012, if ever, and the jury is firmly out on Crow-he has shown nothing so far to suggest that he is anywhere close to the majors.
So, in my opinion, I think the BEST we can hope for is for two of the pitchers to end up as anywhere from #2 to #4 starters, one to totally flame out, one to maybe be a 5th/6th starter, and one as a bullpen arm.
September 17, 2010 at 11:02 PM
Anonymous said...
Glad to see you right this week hope to hear you on 810 this week too.
I'm so tired of hearing people say that Mike Moustakas has "plate discipline issues." He doesn't. Flat out doesn't.
Sure, he's not a huge walk guy, but he also doesn't strike out a lot either for a guy with his huge power potential. In 534 AB's, he only struck out 67 times!! He's Vladimir Guerrero with a slightly lower walk rate. (Guerrero's career BB/AB rate is 10.52 to Moose's 13.39)
The kid has a chance to be something special, and you all want to hold him back because he doesn't draw enough walks???? That's taking this whole walk fetish to the extreme.
September 18, 2010 at 8:35 AM
Anonymous said...
i think you sign Betamit for 2-3 years at $4-9m if possible because you expect to be a good team by then. if he's on the bench backing up 3-4 positions in 2012 or 2013 that is fine even if he's making a few million dollars. payroll should be trending down as youngsters fill in the roster anyway. if he takes over for gordon full time in LF that would be fine as well if a decent return could be had for alex. betamit has value on this roster because he is a switch hitter and the team/prospects are lefty-heavy.
September 18, 2010 at 4:13 PM
Anonymous said...
Rany is still a fucking idiot. As for your comment, Michael....dumb shit bastard. Die.
I totally agree with signing Betemit, the figure I was putting out on a message board was 4 years $12 mil. If you look at his previous years stats you have to remember that almost all of those years he was being used sparingly. Everybody knows that hitters hit better when they have consistent playing time. The last time Betemit had his at-bats significantly above 2.2 ABs a game was 2006 with 2.6. Which means he has pretty much been a back up hitter with pinch hits that push his number of games for the season up. This year ABs per game: 3.2 ABs/per 9 and that is despite tying his career high in walks 32.
September 19, 2010 at 10:28 AM
Clark said...
Rany,
Off subject, but I'd love to get your thoughts on this...
Nice intelligent response, Anonymous. I see you still haven't grown a pair yet. Maybe when your balls finally drop you'll have something worthwhile to say.
Gordon...league average outfielder..Too bad he can't be a league-average hitter. I just knew it, Butler up with bases loaded and no outs spells GIDP (he didn't disappoint). If Kila is real deal then Hosmer plays RF in AAA in '11 and for KC in '12. At that point you have to be concerned with the number of left-handed hitters in your line up. So Gordon is shown the door and Betemit plays LF.
September 21, 2010 at 7:53 AM
Fast Eddie said...
Home Runs from Royals catchers last year = 37; this year = 1.
September 22, 2010 at 7:49 PM
Anonymous said...
Don't worry, Jason Kendall is back next year and he's sure to increase his power numbers in his second season at the K.
I need to take steroids. Then I'll hit home runs and all the Royals fans will love me as much as Dayton does!
September 24, 2010 at 8:25 AM
Anonymous said...
at what point do you stop writing/thinking about the royals? Your analysis would be much better suited for the chiefs/anyone else?
October 2, 2010 at 12:48 AM
Sorry about the long delay between posts. Sometimes real life gets in the way. Let’s try to catch up with a potpourri. - A little over two weeks ago, I wrote that Wilson Betemit “is going to finish with the greatest partial season in the history of the Royals.” I also suggested that the Royals consider signing him to a 3-year deal after the season, rather than risk losing him to free agency after 2011 (or paying him a lot more to re-sign than they’d have to pay him now.) The comments section was rather skeptical of this suggestion. “I wouldn't go paying Betemit too much money or commit for too long. He had 1,275 MLB at-bats prior to 2010 in which he had an OPS of 756, and that's also in line with what you'd expect from his minor-league hitting record.” “If he would take a one year ML deal for 1 mil, fine. Anything more than that, let him walk.” “[T]here is no need to think about a 3 year deal. Moustakas will be up no later than midseason, and Hosmer should be up to start '11. He will make for a nice utility guy next year, but I don't think there is a spot for him after that.” So yeah, there was some skepticism, which I’m sure only intensified after Betemit started September in a 1-for-21 slide. But over the last seven games, Betemit has gone 13-for-29, with 3 doubles and 2 homers, including his first career grand slam. His seasonal line is now .317/.399/.552, in over 250 plate appearances. And I ask again: shouldn’t we at least acknowledge the possibility that this isn’t a fluke? And if it’s not, shouldn’t the Royals be looking to sign him to a long-term deal. My friend Joe Sheehan came back with the retort that in 2008 and 2009, in roughly the same number of at-bats, Betemit hit .252/.287/.406, and that counts too. Which it does. But if we simply add together Betemit’s numbers for all three years, then from 2008 to today, in a sample size of 511 plate appearances (almost a full season), Betemit has hit .284/.345/.478 with 36 doubles and 18 homers. Is it that unrealistic to expect Betemit to hit .284/.345/.478 in a full season next year? And if not, isn’t that a guy worth signing for 3 years? (Those of you who subscribe to Joe Sheehan’s Newsletter can read a much more extensive back-and-forth between Joe and I. If you don’t subscribe, you’re missing out.) Or to look at this from another angle, this timely article from Fangraphs breaks down Betemit’s numbers from this season and comes to the unsurprising conclusion that he’s been awfully lucky in the batting average department. That’s hardly a surprise – you ordinarily can’t hit .317 while on pace to strike out 140 times unless you have massive power. But according to Fangraphs, even when you take the air out of Betemit’s batting average, you’re left with a projected line of .287/.373/.522. And I say again: are you sure you wouldn’t want that hitter around for the next 3 years? Betemit, remember, is just 28 years old. The Royals signed Jose Guillen when he was 32; if the Royals signed Betemit to a 3-year deal, he wouldn’t be 32 when the contract ended. The terms I suggested ($12 million for 3 years) came under some fire, and in fairness, I just pulled those numbers out of thin air. It’s quite possible that he would sign for less than that. He’s arbitration-eligible for 2011, and arbitration looks at a player’s production for the last two seasons, so Betemit’s brief and ineffective stint in the majors last year would keep his salary down. (As would the fact that he’s been a part-time player.) I’d be astonished if he made more than $2 million in arbitration. A 3-year, $12 million deal would essentially tack on a 2-year, $10 million extension to his contract. That might be generous – I could see a 3-year, $10 million deal instead, or even 3 year, $9 million, with a $1 million buyout of a generous option for 2014. These are details best worked out by guys like Jin Wong, who do this full time and have access to the terms of every other contract in the major league for comparison’s sake. The point is that regardless of what the terms are, it’s a very manageable contract. Would Betemit accept such a deal? I’m inclined to think he would. He’s made roughly $4 million in his career, which is good money for you and me but not the kind of money that sets him up for life. Signing a three-year deal now would put him into that kind of financial security, and still allow him to chase big dollars at the age of 32. He might well be willing to give up the chance to get double that money a year from now, in exchange for guaranteed millions today. Much of the resistance to signing him stems from a concern about where he plays. His defense at third base has been awful – to the naked eye he looks subpar, and the defensive stats have him at around 9 runs below average in just a quarter of a season. That’s tough to do. And anyway, when Mike Moustakas is ready, he yields to no man. But if Betemit hits like this, he has a better bat than any outfielder in the system except maybe for David DeJesus, who is a free agent after next season. And the corner outfield is perhaps the only position on the field where the Royals don't have a top prospect knocking on the door of the majors. I see Betemit playing third base for most of 2011, then right field for 2012 and 2013. Basically, Betemit can be the player that the Royals thought Mark Teahen would be – a guy who can move from third base to the corner outfield, dabble at first base, and hit well enough for all four positions. Teahen is a worrisome comp for another reason, which is that Teahen’s 2006 is the closest comparison to Betemit’s 2010 in Royals history. Teahen hit .290/.357/.517 that year in 109 games, but Teahen only started hitting after he was demoted to Omaha early in the season. He returned on June 3rd, and the numbers are eerily similar: Betemit: .317/.399/.552 in 263 PA Teahen: .313/.384/.557 in 356 PA Teahen, of course, never hit like that again, and it’s possible Betemit won’t either. But I would argue that it’s a risk you have to take. Even if Betemit regresses like Teahen did, he’d still have some value as a super-utility player. Maybe not $4 million-a-season value, but he wouldn’t be Jason Kendall either. Fangraphs estimates that from 2007 to 2009 – the three seasons after his breakout mirage – Teahen was worth a total of $8.9 million. So even if Betemit’s 2010 is a mirage, a three-year deal is unlikely to pay him substantially more than he’s worth. And if it’s not a mirage, then he’ll be an absolute bargain. If Betemit is going to stay in Kansas City long-term, though, it’s clear that it will be as a corner outfielder and not as a third baseman. Which is why I think that the Royals need to move Betemit to the outfield immediately, and play him out there every day until the end of the season. They simply have to find out if Betemit can play an acceptable outfield before making a long-term commitment. (This would also open up some playing time at third base for Josh Fields, assuming we can all stomach it.) Alex Gordon, who had never played the outfield before, has been surprisingly decent in left field – the defensive numbers put him at roughly league-average – and I’d like to think that Betemit can be as well, but there’s only one way to find out. The fact that it hasn’t happened yet suggests that the Royals don’t consider Betemit a long-term solution, and will be content to either trade him at next year’s deadline, or let him walk after the season and (possibly) get draft picks for him. We’ll see what happens. Dayton Moore almost never makes big contract decisions until the off-season, and there’s certainly no urgency to get a deal done in September. There are some valid reasons to be concerned about giving a three-year deal to a guy who was in Omaha barely three months ago. But it needs to be considered this winter, which is why it needs to be discussed – and why Betemit needs to be moved to the outfield – now. - If the story of the summer months was Betemit’s breakout, the story of September has to be Brayan Pena. After spending five months locked away in a cupboard under the stairs, allowed out only when absolutely necessary and under strict orders not to do anything that would embarrass the family, Pena was finally and grudgingly given the starting job. And he’s run with it. In the Royals’ first 126 games, through August 24th, Pena started just 12 times and had just 69 plate appearances. The rust showed; he hit .148/.221/.180, numbers that were so awful that they seemed unredeemable. But Pena has started 15 of the Royals’ last 19 games, and has hit .397/.446/.552, including the first home run by a Royals catcher this season, and with more walks (6) than strikeouts (4). Remarkably, he became the first Royal all season to win Player of the Week honors. Pena’s seasonal numbers are all the way up to .269/.331/.361, which is close to his .273/.318/.442 line from last season. When Kendall went out for the season, Ned Yost flatly stated that Pena would probably start 4-5 times a week, with Lucas May starting the other 2-3 times. But so far, May has started just twice all month. Which is as it should be. May seems like a decent backup at best, whereas Pena has borderline starter ability. Even when he wasn’t hitting from April to August, Pena’s defense was very solid – his throws to second base had more zip, and he seemed to be moving better behind the plate. The Royals have spent a lot of time coaching him, and he has worked his ass off to get better. He’s thrown out 34% of attempted basestealers this year, and allowed just one passed ball. Frankly, the defensive concerns about Pena have always seemed overblown – he threw out 35% of basestealers last year. The defensive metrics at baseball-reference.com list him as a dead-average defensive player for both 2009 and 2010. I hate to be insensitive, but Kendall’s injury has benefitted the Royals, both in 2010 and for the future. A year ago they had three catchers under contract for 2010, all three of whom were better than Kendall, and they went out and spent $6 million anyway. But Kendall is almost certainly out until May, and probably until July or August. In his place, the Royals have a 28-year-old switch-hitting catcher who projects as roughly a league-average hitter and fielder, a great work ethic, a wonderful and infectious attitude, and even after arbitration this winter is unlikely to make more than about $1 million. And they have a perfectly serviceable rookie backup catcher making the league minimum. Hopefully Pena’s performance this month has convinced the Royals that their catching situation for next season is in good hands, and they avoid the temptation of bringing in yet another overpaid veteran catcher to tide things over until Kendall is ready to resume sucking. The Royals caught a break when Kendall went down, and they caught a bigger one when Pena started hitting. We can only hope that they appreciate the break that Pena has afforded them, and leave him in the starter’s role that he has earned. - Speaking of minor-league free agents made good, what do the Royals do with Bruce Chen this winter? In his second go-round with the Royals, Chen has been a serviceable starting pitcher, a #5 starter in the scouting parlance. In the vernacular of the Royals, that makes him a #2. (Of the nine pitchers who have started at least five games for the Royals this year, Chen’s 4.70 ERA ranks behind only Zack Greinke.) Chen’s not quite as good as his ERA suggests; he continues to walk too many batters for a guy who’s an incurable fly-ball pitcher. Chen’s xFIP, which is one of the best measures of what a pitcher’s ERA “should” be if he has a normal amount of luck, is 4.92. Last year, Chen’s ERA was more than a run higher (5.78), but his xFIP was barely a third of a run higher at 5.30. Some bad luck last year and some good luck year disguises the fact that he’s basically been the same pitcher both years. I wouldn’t suggest that the Royals give Chen any kind of long-term deal or anything, but I would be perfectly happy if the Royals offered him a one-year contract in the $1.5 million range. (If they could offer Horacio Ramirez $2 million…) Chen’s in that sweet spot where he’s good enough to pitch in the back of a rotation, but not good enough to command a lot of money. I’d almost prefer that the Royals re-up with Chen for one year rather than spend a lot of money on a superior starter in the free-agent market, because while the Royals have a lot of openings for next year’s rotation, I’m not sure there are any openings for 2012. Between the Fab Four lefties (Mike Montgomery, John Lamb, Danny Duffy, and Chris Dwyer) and Aaron Crow, the Royals have five pitching prospects, none of whom are likely to earn a rotation spot next April. But all five pitchers might be ready for a major-league audition between April and September. Put it this way: if at least three of those five pitchers aren’t ready for the Opening Day rotation in 2012, then something’s gone wrong. And with Greinke and Luke Hochevar under contract for 2012, you could argue that the rotation is already set. For 2011, then, the Royals need some stopgaps, guys who are better than replacement-level, but who won’t cost a ton of money and don’t require long-term commitments. Conveniently, they already have one in Kyle Davies, who has pitched well enough the last month to justify bringing him back for his final year before free agency. If the Royals re-sign Chen, they go into the season with Greinke, Hochevar, Davies, and Chen, and can leave the fifth spot open for grabs – if someone like Montgomery or Duffy pitches lights out, they might force the Royals’ hand, and if not, then you settle for Sean O’Sullivan again, or one of the many Triple-A veteran options (Bryan Bullington, Philip Humber) or maybe some non-roster invitee. (I'm working under the assumption that Brian Bannister will be released.) That’s not a particularly appealing rotation, but it’s a very flexible one – flexible in the sense that the minute one of your young studs is ready, you can accommodate him with a minimal amount of pain and effort. For that reason, I think it makes sense to bring back Bruce Chen. The price – both in terms of money and opportunity – is right. - Finally, you might have noticed a common thread between the three players above. Betemit, Pena, and Chen were all 1) former Braves, and 2) acquired for free. Dayton Moore’s ex-Brave fetish gets mocked a lot, at least somewhat deservedly. But it can’t be argued that, at least in 2010, his taste in ex-Braves has paid off in spades. If you’re going to have a weakness for players from another organization, at least have the good sense to pick a winning organization.
"Royals Today: 9/16/2010."
35 Comments -
Meh.
Isn't there something better to talk about after a two-week dry spell?
...ok, perhaps not.
September 16, 2010 at 5:50 PM
Took a pause after the Betemit section to write this:
1. As a subscriber to Sheehan (thanks to your suggestion), I did not receive the exchange between you two. What am I, chopped liver?
2. As a Sox fan, I couldn't agree more with your hope for a Betemit extension, especially if they play him anywhere in the field. We're stuck with Teahan and misery loves company.
Back to your post.
September 16, 2010 at 5:56 PM
What?! Nothing about the most exciting thing going on with the Royals Northwest Arkansas?
Who ever does thier twitter updates does a great job. With only 140 characters they convey tension, excitement and detail.
The first three months of the 2011 season are going to be brutal, but if the royals can spend very little money very wisely, it will give us all something ot look forward to for years.
September 16, 2010 at 6:10 PM
Rany,
This just in from 1990: There is no such thing as a pitching prospect!
If three of those five guys aren't ready in 2012, it's not a disaster, it's business as usual. A good team needs more than five good starting pitchers.
September 16, 2010 at 8:14 PM
Given your last sentence, what does it say about Kenny Williams' ex-Royals fetish? The White Sox don't appeared to have suffered for it.
September 16, 2010 at 9:17 PM
Re: Betemit -- I understand your point, but I don't have a committed position on this. If the Royals do not offer him arbitration, then that is foolish. But if I am the Royals, I might at least go through arbitration and see how he does in Spring Training. As long as you make the move before opening day, it would not be too late (though admittedly I have no idea about the status of MLB contracts). But three years is a long time, and even if he could play RF now, he may not be able to do so in 2 years. At that time, we will not have the DH space to hold him. The best argument I can come up with for keeping him is that old "you need a veteran in the middle of the lineup" argument. When Moose comes up, we will again need more protection for him (though it would be nice if some of the other bats are going too -- I'm talking to you, Kila). The bat is good, and that he is a switch hitter makes him pretty useful. But 1B utility player is so unnecessary on this team, it is not even funny. If he cannot play the field, you cannot count on him. You can only put him at DH if you give up on Kila. That's the potential cost.
Re: Chen -- The guy is fine, but I really do not care if he comes back. Because he is LH, he might get a team to pay him more than what he is worth. Your proposal is good, but I have a feeling others might also look at him. I hope Dayton does the same thing as last year: pick up a lot of minor league arms that can fill in for no cost until the other guys come up. And yes, I love Banny too, but he is clearly at the end of his rope.
Re: Pena -- I'm speechless. The pitchers seem to work well with him too...
September 16, 2010 at 10:37 PM
How come GMDM's fetish for Braves didn't apply to Kelly Johnson? I'd have taken his line over Chris Getz's any day... and for a relatively meager sum of 2.35mil+ per year.
September 16, 2010 at 11:47 PM
Betemit = bargain bet. And if he finishes the season leading the current roster in HR he gets to walk in to Dayton's office to sign his contract in his underwear.
September 17, 2010 at 1:05 AM
Rany,
Did u read my tweet last night. People ask and you shall receive. Rany either knowingly or subconsciously has answered my tweet requests with articles being released the following day!
Anyway to the point I do agree with your points here. Betemit has shown me over the course of the season that he can at the least be a utility player with very good power. At the best I think you have Raul ibanez. I bet we could get him 3 yrs for 3 bills. We know worse money has been spent by the royals.
Bruce Chen appears to be getting better production this year than he should be. I could go either way on resigning him. I might wait and see how low you can get him for once winter meetings conclude. I think 1 for 1 is appropriate.
Finally Pena does need to start next year with may backing up. I would have preferred to have kept Buck and Pena last year, but obviously it's too late for that. But if Pena can hold the position until Myers is ready that would be awesome! That is if Myers can stick at catcher. Otherwise he just comes up and takes betemits spot.
September 17, 2010 at 1:18 AM
The problem with putting Betemit in the outfield on a semi-permanent basis over the next two to three years is that it does block some players that should at least have some kind of shot at playing regular outfield for the Royals.
Assuming you get DeJesus back, and Gordon still plays left field, you have Jarrod Dyson and Gregor Blanco to play center field. Let's not forget Mitch Maier and Jai Miller... though I'm pretty sure the Royals will come October.
Then you have David Lough in Omaha, and if Kila and Billy continue to improve, most people think Hosmer would be moved to the outfield.
That seems like a large glut of outfielders to me for only, at best, five positions on the roster. Even as a super-utility player, he's limited to four positions, and right now, KC is deep at all of them if you add in DD. You compare his production to Teahen's, but the missing comparison is the defense. I don't have numbers in front of me, but you said Betemit was sub-par at third, and in the one game I went to this year, he committed an error that led to Zack Greinke going from a no-hitter to a loss in one inning.
I mean, Bloomquist didn't have the bat, but he at least had the glove. Two years, $4.0 million. He's done enough for that, and after those years, everyone will know if he's the real deal and worth keeping around when all the "superstars" should arrive.
September 17, 2010 at 1:37 AM
P.S.
Does it seem obvious based on who is going to AZ instructional league that they want some people to develop faster than normal? I mean I think myers is going to hopefully continue progressing at his catchers position so they don't have to hopefully switch him to OF. Because as of right now his bat is so advanced he is getting to the point that his bat is going to be ready by 2012, and you wont be able to hold it out of the majors. But that bat at catcher would just be sick...dare I say Maueresque.
Then obviously crow was disappointing especially after his spring training where people were thinking he may break with the major league club. I think they are hopin this extra work can get him up by sept 2012.
Finally I think the club was slightly disappointed with Colon's season. It looks like offensively the combo of Wilmington's park and getting adjusted to the minors just gave him an icee start as I seem to remember him heating up as the season progressed. I think they want to keep that improvement coming as well as maybe cleanup the errors defensively. Sorry about my long posts! Reading Rany is rubbing off on me I guess.
September 17, 2010 at 1:38 AM
If Kila has done well enough to deserve a shot at starting next season, Betemit deserves one too--no matter the position. If Betemit replicates what he's done in the latter half of '10, he's a keeper at all costs. KEEP THE GUYS WHO CAN HIT!
I think Moustakas should make the team out of ST. Hey, the Royals have nothing to lose by bringing up a kid who has done everything statistically in the minors that was expected of him. 2011 should be a full season in the majors for Moustakas...he should be done with wasting time in the minors.
I agree with Tony, the Royals are loaded at NW Arkansas. Even some of the "marginal" players there should get a look in KC. Clint Robinson won the Triple Crown...he deserves a serious look in ST, no matter the complications it might mean for the Royals.
As I said, the Royals have nothing to lose. For once, they have a bounty of talented players right under their noses. If I were GMDM, I'd forgo the free agent market completely. After all, what good has that done other than to end up spending yet another season trying not to land in last place?
September 17, 2010 at 7:20 AM
Betemit definitely deserves a contract of some kind (whether its 2 or 3 years I don't know). He has played SS as recently as 2 years ago, but I can imagine it wouldn't be pretty. He is a better utility man that Bloomquist (and now I'm stuck with him out here in Cincinnati for the rest of the year). Betemit and Fields split time at 3rd until Moustakas is ready, maybe by June. If either Betemit or Fields get hot, then there is the trade piece at the deadline.
If you can't trade them, then you have nice power bats off the bench. We also don't know if Kila is going to amount to anything. So the DH/1B spot could still be open until Hosmer/C.Robinson are ready.
If Chen can be brought back for a year or 2 at 1 mil a year, you have to do that. He will make for a good #5 starter, and swingman if any of the youngins' are ready. The way the bullpen is shaping up, there should be no need to spend money there. Soria, Meche, Wood, Tejeda, Collins, Hardy, Coleman is the bullpen out of spring training.
Pena is a serviceable catcher, nothing special. He can keep the seat warm until Perez or hopefully Myers is ready. I think Perez would be ready by the beginning of 2012, but Myers probably not until 2013. I would love to see Myers bat in the big leagues sooner, but Catcher is a premium position.
September 17, 2010 at 8:58 AM
I'd resign Betemit. And I think some of the commentators here might do well to escape a last-place-team frame of mind over the next couple of years. There's not a contending team in baseball that would forgo Betemit just to preserve playing time for Jai Miller and Mitch Meier. Those guys are handy to have around as stopgaps, but my no means are they pivotal to the future.
September 17, 2010 at 8:59 AM
I wouldn't mind seeing Betemit in RF for next year, but that outfield would look pretty slow. Gordon, DDJ, Betemit? And like somebody said, there are alot of nice looking outfielders that will deserve a chance by the start of 2012. Lough, Parraz, Dyson, Miller to start, then D.Robinson, Orlando, Smith, and others later.
Do we try and resign DDJ for 3 more years, or just pick up his option for next year? He is a very serviceable above avg outfielder, but he is getting a little older.
September 17, 2010 at 9:03 AM
I'm sure I'll be in the minority on this - but I advocate signing a good SP this offseason. I'm willing to live with the position players we have (or soon will have), and I like all the pitching prospects coming soon, but the current rotation is SO thin, I think it would be banking on too much to expect all the prospects to pan out and suddenly have a contending rotation in 2012 or 2013. Supplement Greinke with another good pitcher (a legit #2 or #3)
September 17, 2010 at 9:36 AM
bruce chen is ok be a good signing but I think there needs to be another strong arm with Grenke for next year, especially since Menche is KO'd. I like Betemit also. Why not sign him. The Royals have no one else that is a long ball threat at all. Gordon Blanco/Meier and Betemit would be a decent outfield. DeJesus has to fit in there somewhere as well.
I wish Kila was showing signs of major league player but looks like 2nd coming of Shealy. If nothing else - betemit could take some 1B/DH time.
September 17, 2010 at 1:29 PM
I haven't done a great deal of digging on Brayan Pena, yet. But if anyone recalls, ZIPS projected him to be better than both Olivio and Buck last year. Brayan Pena has proven over the last several years that he can be a solid major league ball player. His plate discipline is very good, and he has good power. Anyone who isn't emotionally involved in the "youth movement" might pause to consider if Myers will move positions BECAUSE Pena is a better option. Pena was better than Buck or Olivio last year; and both Buck and Olivio were All-Star candidates this year. Pena threw one of the fastest guys in the majors out from his knees the other day. Pena hasn't had a major problem with passed balls either.
As for Betemit. He's a keeper. He's not Teahen, I have a long write-up on him here: http://jrmcneal.blogspot.com/2010/07/alberto-callaspo-vs-wilson-betemit.html
3 years 12 million? 3 years 10 million? I would absolutely take the gamble on this guy. Assuming he's a good club house guy, that is. Good club house guys create an atmosphere guys like Greinke want to stick around for. In fact, I would sign him for a "crazy" 7 years and 18 million dollars. He can be the number 4 hitter for the next 3 years, maybe by that time Myers, Hosmer, or Moustakas will be ready for that role.
This idea that Hosmer/Moustakas/Myers is going to be awesome right when they get to the Majors is super optimistic at best and probably just stupid. Moustakas will probably not be the number 3/4 hitter until 2013. And even that's a BIG maybe. Moustakas has plate discipline issues. Plus, he needs time to settle into the major leagues as a 7, 8, or 9 hitter. Furthermore, he shouldn't be rushed. Bring him up next year as a September call-up so he can be on the same time table as the rest of the group.
September 17, 2010 at 1:38 PM
Another point that needs to be addressed with the ex-Braves fetish is Ned Yost. While I like Ned much better than Trey, I still advocated for Buck Showalter to be hired as he was available at the time Hillman was fired. Baltimore is 11 games over .500 since he took over which is no small miracle since they were 32-73 when he took over. A stern manager like Showalter, who lays down the law and tells his young players who are used to a culture of losing that, "it stops here, we are going to play the right way and be successful" would have really been appreciated around here I think.
September 17, 2010 at 3:46 PM
It could definitely be for real. Look at Phil Nevin, former 1st overall pick who never did anything until he was 28 years old and ended up having a pretty good career. Betemit is the same age as Nevin was when he broke out and he's certainly never played this well before (he was good for the Braves and Dodgers though which I think is another thing that could show that this is for real).
September 17, 2010 at 5:35 PM
OK, one question about Kendall. Is it possible, as shredded as his rotator cuff was, that it's been torn up a lot longer, and this recent injury finally made him go get it looked at? His hitting got worse in 2005, then a lot worse after 2007. And he's never been great at throwing out runners, but in 2005 he got a lot worse. He was decent in 2008 (43%) but other than that, since 2005 he's been throwing like Johnny Damon.
Kendall also turned 32 in 2005, and even Johnny Bench aged badly after age 32. But the sudden loss of all power and all ability to throw out runners is suspicious.
September 17, 2010 at 10:06 PM
Good post, Rany.
I do disagree with one comment, however-I don't think that if "3 of our 5 top pitching prospects aren't in the rotation by 2012, something's gone wrong." as you said.
I think it's more reasonable that one or maybe two of them (my bet is on Monty and Duffy) can be up sometime next year and rotation regulars by 2012, but the nature of prospects is such that there is a high failure rate.
Two of the other guys (probably Lamb and Dwyer) will not be ready by 2012, if ever, and the jury is firmly out on Crow-he has shown nothing so far to suggest that he is anywhere close to the majors.
So, in my opinion, I think the BEST we can hope for is for two of the pitchers to end up as anywhere from #2 to #4 starters, one to totally flame out, one to maybe be a 5th/6th starter, and one as a bullpen arm.
September 17, 2010 at 11:02 PM
Glad to see you right this week hope to hear you on 810 this week too.
September 17, 2010 at 11:14 PM
I'm so tired of hearing people say that Mike Moustakas has "plate discipline issues." He doesn't. Flat out doesn't.
Sure, he's not a huge walk guy, but he also doesn't strike out a lot either for a guy with his huge power potential. In 534 AB's, he only struck out 67 times!! He's Vladimir Guerrero with a slightly lower walk rate. (Guerrero's career BB/AB rate is 10.52 to Moose's 13.39)
The kid has a chance to be something special, and you all want to hold him back because he doesn't draw enough walks???? That's taking this whole walk fetish to the extreme.
September 18, 2010 at 8:35 AM
i think you sign Betamit for 2-3 years at $4-9m if possible because you expect to be a good team by then. if he's on the bench backing up 3-4 positions in 2012 or 2013 that is fine even if he's making a few million dollars. payroll should be trending down as youngsters fill in the roster anyway. if he takes over for gordon full time in LF that would be fine as well if a decent return could be had for alex. betamit has value on this roster because he is a switch hitter and the team/prospects are lefty-heavy.
September 18, 2010 at 4:13 PM
Rany is still a fucking idiot. As for your comment, Michael....dumb shit bastard. Die.
September 18, 2010 at 7:05 PM
Know who Pena reminds me of? Greg Zaun.
September 18, 2010 at 11:19 PM
I totally agree with signing Betemit, the figure I was putting out on a message board was 4 years $12 mil.
If you look at his previous years stats you have to remember that almost all of those years he was being used sparingly. Everybody knows that hitters hit better when they have consistent playing time. The last time Betemit had his at-bats significantly above 2.2 ABs a game was 2006 with 2.6. Which means he has pretty much been a back up hitter with pinch hits that push his number of games for the season up.
This year ABs per game: 3.2 ABs/per 9 and that is despite tying his career high in walks 32.
September 19, 2010 at 10:28 AM
Rany,
Off subject, but I'd love to get your thoughts on this...
http://jonahkeri.com/2010/09/13/pitching-injuries-and-rangers/
September 19, 2010 at 11:58 AM
Nice intelligent response, Anonymous. I see you still haven't grown a pair yet. Maybe when your balls finally drop you'll have something worthwhile to say.
September 20, 2010 at 8:47 AM
Gordon...league average outfielder..Too bad he can't be a league-average hitter.
I just knew it, Butler up with bases loaded and no outs spells GIDP (he didn't disappoint).
If Kila is real deal then Hosmer plays RF in AAA in '11 and for KC in '12. At that point you have to be concerned with the number of left-handed hitters in your line up. So Gordon is shown the door and Betemit plays LF.
September 21, 2010 at 7:53 AM
Home Runs from Royals catchers last year = 37; this year = 1.
September 22, 2010 at 7:49 PM
Don't worry, Jason Kendall is back next year and he's sure to increase his power numbers in his second season at the K.
September 22, 2010 at 10:44 PM
I need to take steroids. Then I'll hit home runs and all the Royals fans will love me as much as Dayton does!
September 24, 2010 at 8:25 AM
at what point do you stop writing/thinking about the royals? Your analysis would be much better suited for the chiefs/anyone else?
October 2, 2010 at 12:48 AM