For what it's worth I don't think the Royals are 10.7%, either. Just using a coin flip model I get 9.8% - and this should be worse than coin flip model.
By my calculations, there is a 6% chance the Royals win the division outright and a 20% chance they tie and force a playoff. So, approximately a 16% chance they win the division one way or another.
On Vargas, it is yet to be determined whether his issue is a short or long term problem, but for now I think he falls into the Crow category, i.e. do not use unless the game is safely in hand or out of reach.
The other silver lining is the hitting of Hosmer and Butler. They have both passed the tipping point-- seeing them approach the plate now inspires Gordonian hope rather than Moustakian dread.
Thank you, Jose Reyes - earlier this year - and Marcus Semien tonight. And Gordo's sliding catch in the 7th prior to the pivotal 8th inning. That's what defense (and speed) do. Magic number is 1...
You don't owe Moore an apology. Not unless James Shields goes mano a mano with Jon Lester in the wild-card game and beats him.
The Royals could have accomplished as much or more the last two years without ever making that trade. You weren't wrong last year and you still aren't.
It would be great if the A's continue their death spiral and the Mariners force a game 163 for the second wildcard spot. Then the Royals could face a number 2 or 3 starter in the Wildcard game. Of course, all I really care about is the Royals getting to the freaking game.
Have to disagree on Butler, Drew. Even with last night's 0-4, Billy has 7 hits in 5 games and has scored 4 runs. If everyone in the lineup hit at that rate we'd have 13 hits and score 6 runs a game.
John, and Butler GIDP again last night but for the error. He's been horrible all season except for the first couple day he took over for Hosmer after the broken wrist.
The Royals wouldn't be where they are today without the contributions of Shields and Davis. Some of you are just so arrogant that you can't admit when you are wrong. If this trade were to be solely looked at over the value each team has received the last two years, its easily in the Royals favor.
But, obviously, the Rays very well could get more value overall in the coming years. But that's how many baseball trades work out. You trade future value for current value. The Royals were pushing to make a playoff run. This trade signified that they felt the time was now to do it. And they were right!
Where would the Royals have been last year with Rookie of the Year Wil Myers instead of train wreck Jeff Francoeur in the lineup, anyone other than train wreck Wade Davis (and his nifty -2.1 bWAR) in the rotation, and with another pitcher acquired with the money they didn't pay James Shields?
The trade may have prevented the Royals from making the playoffs last year. It may help them make it this year. So call it a wash--except that come November, they're not going to have Shields, and they won't have Wil Myers or Jake Odorizzi, either. Since I'm sure their goals went beyond making the wild-card game, they have to at least make the Division Series round to justify the trade.
First, Francouer would have played the first half the year anyway. No way the Royals bring him up before June, much like the Rays did. By that point Francouer had already done most of his damage.
Second, and I know you and others put no value in this, but we wouldn't have been even a .500 team last year without Shields. The leadership this guy brings is something that cannot be measured. You couple that with his pitching and he was the perfect trade target for the Royals to go from a team of promise to a team of production.
I just hope some of these guys have learned enough from him that we can continue winning after he's gone.
I should have been in bed an hour ago, but I can't sleep. Yes, the Royals made the playoffs. Sort of. I still don't like the idea of being in what is essentially a "play-in" game. Let's get the Division title! Let Detroit play in the "play-in" game!!!
BTW, Rany, what a reward for you to see the playoff-clenching game in the city you live in/near! What are the odds that you would have a relatively short commute to see - live and in-person - this moment. 100:1 odds. This is good karma. Wish that I could have been there, and so glad that the players came out and celebrated with their long-suffering fans...
Michael S.: I am sure in your 2nd sentence you were referring to Wil Myers, but you neglected to mention it. Your sentence structure indicated a 2nd reference to Francoeur.. Mick: Clenching??????? LOL.
September 27, 2014 at 1:37 AM
Playoff Odds (ESPN/Fangraphs): 99.9% (20.6% Division, 79.2% Wild
Card)
Playoff Odds (Baseball
Prospectus): 99.1%
(5.0% Division, 94.1% Wild Card)
The two systems agree on the Royals’ overall playoff odds
are over 99%, but vary wildly when it comes to their odds of winning the
division. I have to think there’s a bug in the Fangraphs’ system at this point:
there’s no way the Royals have a 21% chance to win the division when they’re
down two games with four to play. That would imply they have about a one-in-three
chance of finishing tied with the Tigers (along with a small chance of winning
the division outright), and I don’t know how you make the math work.
Anyway, the Royals’ odds of making the postseason went up yesterday, thanks to Mark Buehrle being a beautiful human being, and
the Mariners being kind of a tire fire right now. It is possible that the
Royals could end the longest postseason drought in North American sports
tonight.
But their path to the postseason is looking more and more
like it will have to go through a one-game deathmatch against Oakland, as the
Tigers beat Chris Sale (all of the cool teams are doing it now, apparently) to
take a two game lead with four to play. With Oakland losing, the Royals and A’s
are tied, with the Royals holding the tiebreaker to host that game Tuesday
night.
And wouldn’t you know it, Tuesday is James Shields’ day
to pitch. What happens that day might not only cement his legacy in Kansas
City, it may determine whether I owe Dayton Moore an apology – or whether I
need to get down on my knees, kiss his feet, beg for forgiveness, and then
commit ritual suicide to restore what little remains of my honor.
But first, Shields pitches tonight, with a chance to take
the Royals to the Promised Land after just 29 years. We should know before he
takes the mound whether the Royals can clinch or not – the Mariners and Blue
Jays play at 3 PM CDT. Either way, I’ll be there – if you’re going to the game,
follow me on Twitter if you want to come by and say hello. And maybe, just
maybe, celebrate something special together.
- Last night may have been a disappointing loss to the
Indians, but if there’s a silver lining here, it’s that it may force the
Royals’ hands in keeping both Yordano Ventura and Danny Duffy in their playoff
rotation.
I thought Soren Petro was being a little melodramatic
yesterday morning when he said that Jason Vargas is cooked, but I'm thinking now that he has
a point. Vargas was terrible last night. He gave up a three-run homer in the
first; he walked three batters and struck out only one. Over his last four starts,
he’s allowed 18 runs in 18 innings. (Meanwhile, Phil Hughes threw eight innings
of one-run ball yesterday and finished his season with the best strikeout-to-walk ratio in major league history. Come on,
people, I haven’t had the best season from a prediction standpoint, but you
gotta give me this one! If Hughes were a Royal, pitching in front of this
defense, he’d be getting Cy Young votes this year.)
Vargas isn’t this bad, just as he wasn’t as good as he
looked at times earlier this year. But he is worse than Ventura and Duffy –
assuming Duffy looks as good in his second start back from injury as he did in
his first – and the Royals can’t have a playoff rotation that features both
Vargas and Jeremy Guthrie, but only
one of Ventura or Duffy. Yes, Ventura/Duffy would make for a better piece out
of the bullpen than either Vargas or Guthrie – but it’s not like the Royals are
hurting for right-handed relievers, and with the emergence of Brandon Finnegan,
there isn’t an acute need for a power lefty out of the pen anymore either.
The problem is that there’s a 50/50 chance that the
Royals’ playoff rotation will begin and end with Shields. If Ventura pitches on
Sunday – and even if a playoff spot is secured and the AL Central is out of
reach, it might be worth it to start him in order to guarantee a home playoff
game on Tuesday – then neither he nor Shields would be on full rest to start
Game 1 of the ALDS. But Duffy would be on normal rest, and I don’t know about
you, but I’ll take my chances with Duffy and Ventura in Games 1 and 2, with
Shields starting Game 3 at Kauffman again. Any other alignment would be
sub-optimal. (Also, the way the off days work, if the ALDS goes to Game 5, you could start Duffy on five days' rest OR Ventura on regular rest.)
The other silver lining here – we hope – is that
yesterday might represent the last time Aaron Crow is allowed to pitch in a
close game. He entered with the score 5-4 in the sixth, and promptly walked the
leadoff batter – Mike Aviles, who we know from intimate experience is a hard
man to walk. Aviles stole second, advanced to third on a grounder, which ended
Crow’s outing. Francisley Bueno came in and allowed a sacrifice fly to double
the Indians’ margin and put the game out of reach.
You may have read this on this blog before, but if you
haven’t: AARON CROW ISN’T A GOOD PITCHER. Ned Yost keeps trying to prove
otherwise, and he keeps getting burned. I don’t think Crow is one of the 25
best players on this team, and I think you can make a very strong case that he
should not be on the Royals’ playoff roster. And I’m damn sure that he has no
business in being used in any fashion other than as a mop-up man or as a human
victory cigar in a 10-1 game.
- One last time: the Royals could clinch a playoff spot
tonight. No, really. And if they do, MLB has to let them in – I checked the
rulebook and everything.
The last two months have been a crazy ride, and barring a
seismic collapse, the ride won’t end on Sunday. On the contrary, it might just
be getting to the good part.
"Royals Today: 9/25/14."
24 Comments -
Fan Graphs says 10.7% to win division.
http://www.fangraphs.com/coolstandings.aspx
September 25, 2014 at 3:08 PM
hello Charles.
September 25, 2014 at 3:33 PM
For what it's worth I don't think the Royals are 10.7%, either. Just using a coin flip model I get 9.8% - and this should be worse than coin flip model.
September 25, 2014 at 3:34 PM
By my calculations, there is a 6% chance the Royals win the division outright and a 20% chance they tie and force a playoff. So, approximately a 16% chance they win the division one way or another.
On Vargas, it is yet to be determined whether his issue is a short or long term problem, but for now I think he falls into the Crow category, i.e. do not use unless the game is safely in hand or out of reach.
The other silver lining is the hitting of Hosmer and Butler. They have both passed the tipping point-- seeing them approach the plate now inspires Gordonian hope rather than Moustakian dread.
September 25, 2014 at 3:53 PM
Hi, Luke.
John, I'm confused as to how you get 20% chance that they tie or 6% that they win outright.
September 25, 2014 at 3:59 PM
Win outright
4-0/0-4 1/256
4-0/1-3 1/64
3-1/0-4 1/64
Tie + win in playoff
4-0/2-2 1/64
3-1/1-3 1/32
2-0/0-4 1/64
September 25, 2014 at 4:04 PM
I can see a silly error in mine!
The two terms 4-0/2-2 and 2-2/0-4 are both overstated. They should both read 3/256.
This reduces the chances to 9.0%.
The error stemmed from my inability to see that there really are only 6 combinations of 2-2 in a four game set. DUH!
September 25, 2014 at 4:59 PM
You forgot to factor in that Detroit is playing Minnesota.
The chances that the Tigers will lose three or four games is infinitesimal.
September 25, 2014 at 5:51 PM
Fan graphs models their percentages.
September 25, 2014 at 6:09 PM
Tigers won tonight. KC looking very good at 6-3 going into the bottom of the 9th.
Tigers have struggled with the Twins all year. Tonight's win puts them at 8-8.
Two down with 3 to go makes KC a real long shot for the division, but if they win out - ???
Mariners won today also.
Nothing is ever easy.
Cheers!
JzB
September 25, 2014 at 10:18 PM
John, Butler hasn't shown jack.
September 25, 2014 at 11:40 PM
Thank you, Jose Reyes - earlier this year - and Marcus Semien tonight. And Gordo's sliding catch in the 7th prior to the pivotal 8th inning. That's what defense (and speed) do. Magic number is 1...
September 26, 2014 at 12:18 AM
You don't owe Moore an apology. Not unless James Shields goes mano a mano with Jon Lester in the wild-card game and beats him.
The Royals could have accomplished as much or more the last two years without ever making that trade. You weren't wrong last year and you still aren't.
September 26, 2014 at 1:19 AM
It would be great if the A's continue their death spiral and the Mariners force a game 163 for the second wildcard spot. Then the Royals could face a number 2 or 3 starter in the Wildcard game. Of course, all I really care about is the Royals getting to the freaking game.
September 26, 2014 at 1:31 AM
When we swept the Tigers in the last weekend of the season a few years ago, who ended up winning the division? Was it the Twins? If so, they owe us!
September 26, 2014 at 6:27 AM
Have to disagree on Butler, Drew. Even with last night's 0-4, Billy has 7 hits in 5 games and has scored 4 runs. If everyone in the lineup hit at that rate we'd have 13 hits and score 6 runs a game.
September 26, 2014 at 7:40 AM
John, and Butler GIDP again last night but for the error. He's been horrible all season except for the first couple day he took over for Hosmer after the broken wrist.
September 26, 2014 at 9:43 AM
The Royals wouldn't be where they are today without the contributions of Shields and Davis. Some of you are just so arrogant that you can't admit when you are wrong. If this trade were to be solely looked at over the value each team has received the last two years, its easily in the Royals favor.
September 26, 2014 at 1:36 PM
But, obviously, the Rays very well could get more value overall in the coming years. But that's how many baseball trades work out. You trade future value for current value. The Royals were pushing to make a playoff run. This trade signified that they felt the time was now to do it. And they were right!
September 26, 2014 at 1:39 PM
Where would the Royals have been last year with Rookie of the Year Wil Myers instead of train wreck Jeff Francoeur in the lineup, anyone other than train wreck Wade Davis (and his nifty -2.1 bWAR) in the rotation, and with another pitcher acquired with the money they didn't pay James Shields?
The trade may have prevented the Royals from making the playoffs last year. It may help them make it this year. So call it a wash--except that come November, they're not going to have Shields, and they won't have Wil Myers or Jake Odorizzi, either. Since I'm sure their goals went beyond making the wild-card game, they have to at least make the Division Series round to justify the trade.
September 26, 2014 at 2:03 PM
First, Francouer would have played the first half the year anyway. No way the Royals bring him up before June, much like the Rays did. By that point Francouer had already done most of his damage.
Second, and I know you and others put no value in this, but we wouldn't have been even a .500 team last year without Shields. The leadership this guy brings is something that cannot be measured. You couple that with his pitching and he was the perfect trade target for the Royals to go from a team of promise to a team of production.
I just hope some of these guys have learned enough from him that we can continue winning after he's gone.
September 26, 2014 at 2:44 PM
I should have been in bed an hour ago, but I can't sleep. Yes, the Royals made the playoffs. Sort of. I still don't like the idea of being in what is essentially a "play-in" game. Let's get the Division title! Let Detroit play in the "play-in" game!!!
September 27, 2014 at 12:57 AM
BTW, Rany, what a reward for you to see the playoff-clenching game in the city you live in/near! What are the odds that you would have a relatively short commute to see - live and in-person - this moment. 100:1 odds. This is good karma. Wish that I could have been there, and so glad that the players came out and celebrated with their long-suffering fans...
September 27, 2014 at 1:04 AM
Michael S.: I am sure in your 2nd sentence you were referring to Wil Myers, but you neglected to mention it. Your sentence structure indicated a 2nd reference to Francoeur.. Mick: Clenching??????? LOL.
September 27, 2014 at 1:37 AM