The seismic data seems to say this was real. This was picked up by seismometers here in the Northwestern U.S. At a magnitude 4.2 event, that would make this a 2.1-kiloton detonation, according to the "textbook" conversion that says that about a third of the energy of the explosion is transmitted as seismic waves. In reality, the exact parameters of the explosion can make this vary by quite a bit, and so, you could have a larger device that just came out a bit "muffled", or a smaller device that was better than average at generating a seismic shockwave.
9:44 AM, October 09, 2006
This just in...I don't know much yet. Via this diary on Kos, we have this MSNBC story: SEOUL, South Korea - North Korea said Monday it had conducted its first nuclear weapons test, setting off an underground blast in defiance of international warnings and intense diplomatic activity aimed at heading off such a move.U.S. and South Korean officials could not immediately confirm the North Korean report but the U.S. Geological Survey said it recorded a seismic event with a preliminary magnitude of 4.2 in northeastern North Korea that coincided with the country’s announced nuclear test. UPDATE: see Grishnash in the comments; he thinks it's consistent with a nuclear detonation.
"North Korea tests a nuke"
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The seismic data seems to say this was real. This was picked up by seismometers here in the Northwestern U.S. At a magnitude 4.2 event, that would make this a 2.1-kiloton detonation, according to the "textbook" conversion that says that about a third of the energy of the explosion is transmitted as seismic waves. In reality, the exact parameters of the explosion can make this vary by quite a bit, and so, you could have a larger device that just came out a bit "muffled", or a smaller device that was better than average at generating a seismic shockwave.
9:44 AM, October 09, 2006