Post a Comment On: Internal Monologue

It used to be that when one mentioned "the demographic problem", one was referring to the fact that Arabs have been breeding faster than Jews in Israel, and that barring some kind of action, Israel would cease to exist as a Jewish state.

But now it seems that a certain professor who opines in the Wall Street Journal is pointing out that the American left has a demographic problem (HT: Echidne via Digby) , too. A "fertility gap" with conservatives:
But the data on young Americans tell a different story. Simply put, liberals have a big baby problem: They're not having enough of them, they haven't for a long time, and their pool of potential new voters is suffering as a result. According to the 2004 General Social Survey, if you picked 100 unrelated politically liberal adults at random, you would find that they had, between them, 147 children. If you picked 100 conservatives, you would find 208 kids. That's a "fertility gap" of 41%. Given that about 80% of people with an identifiable party preference grow up to vote the same way as their parents, this gap translates into lots more little Republicans than little Democrats to vote in future elections.
From this, the author concludes that Democrats are doomed. I would point out the following: There are other ways to get voters than by breeding them. Even though it's true that most people vote like their parents, if liberals can convert more conservatives than vice versa, the fertility gap could be lessened. Another source of voters is immigration: if liberals can do better than their opponents at wooing new citizens, that is another potential source of strength. Given that the most vehement anti-immigration rhetoric seems to be coming from Republicans, I suspect that the Democrats are doing pretty well with America's newly minted citizens. If Latin American immigrants voted Republican more, I bet there would be a lot less talk of building a wall on the border (or maybe it would just be different people doing the talking).

This is why I think there's such a big divide in the Republican party over immigration and more specficially Latin American immigration: Bush (i.e. Rove) favors a more accommodating policy, because he sees the numbers and knows that if the Republicans become a "whites only" party it is doomed. But the xenophobia of the Republican base isn't thinking in such a long-term way. Tactically, I'd really like to see Democrats exploit this more. (This being said, there are numerous legitimate concerns on the immigration issue-it's not all xenophobia.)

So yes, there are tough demographic challenges for Democrats. But I think Republicans face equally daunting ones. Look at people's attitudes about homosexuality broken down by age: I think Republicans will find that pushing the anti-gay button will become less and less effective as time goes on. I think demographics can tilt the playing field, but I suspect that upcoming technological and societal upheavals will make todays political distinctions irrelevant before current demographic trends shift the political balance irreversibly one way or the other.