The next question is whether we can correlate who was in that last hour of Raw with when the largest viewership declines occurred. Obviously, this is not a perfect process. There are numerous events on television that are starting and ending through Raw which may impact the show's viewership from week-to-week and season-to-season. Furthermore, sometimes Raw viewership will spike for a certain segment (such as Shane McMahon's return) and decline after the hot moment has passed. Lastly, this analysis is looking at who was in the last two wrestling matches on Raw each week. It doesn't look at the final go-home segments (often promos). It doesn't look at who interfered in the match. It doesn't look at what was the promoted match or storyline of the show. It's an imperfect study and without having access to quarter-hour ratings, it's a very broad brushstroke to attempt to estimate a rather delicate topic. However, whilst disclaimers abound, Mookie ventures forth.
Methodology: divide out who was in the last two matches on Raw each week and correspond that with the viewership change in Hour 3 (versus Hour 2).
Average Hour Three Loss (9/1/14 to 6/6/16): -197,700 viewers. (This does not include the Blizzard Raw replay on 1/26/15.)
[Image]
A low Index in this scenario is GOOD. (Note: Vince McMahon was included on here for his guest referee duties.)
Here is the overall rankings for people with 4+ matches in this dataset:
4+ MATCHES (FINAL + PENULTIMATE) ON RAW PERSONOVERALLAVG LOSSINDEX
1
R-Truth
4
(368,500)
1.86
2
Tyler Breeze
5
(326,200)
1.65
3
Sasha Banks
7
(316,000)
1.60
4
AJ Styles
4
(310,000)
1.57
5
Titus O'Neil
7
(296,000)
1.50
6
D-Von Dudley
7
(294,143)
1.49
7
Mark Henry
4
(258,750)
1.31
8
Big E
21
(253,048)
1.28
9
Darren Young
5
(250,800)
1.27
10
Bubba Ray Dudley
7
(250,000)
1.26
11
Jey Uso
12
(249,917)
1.26
12
Cesaro
11
(249,364)
1.26
13
The Miz
12
(245,583)
1.24
14
Naomi
10
(244,500)
1.24
15
Kane
13
(228,462)
1.16
16
Bray Wyatt
8
(222,625)
1.13
17
Kofi Kingston
17
(219,353)
1.11
18
Becky Lynch
10
(209,500)
1.06
19
The Big Show
10
(203,200)
1.03
20
Kevin Owens
15
(199,067)
1.01
21
Dean Ambrose
25
(198,600)
1.00
22
Ryback
12
(192,083)
0.97
23
Sin Cara
6
(190,000)
0.96
24
Damien Sandow
6
(185,667)
0.94
25
Neville
10
(185,000)
0.94
26
Randy Orton
19
(184,737)
0.93
27
Xavier Woods
8
(180,375)
0.91
28
Rusev
12
(178,250)
0.90
29
Seth Rollins
31
(176,065)
0.89
30
Fernando
5
(176,000)
0.89
31
Daniel Bryan
7
(174,286)
0.88
32
Jimmy Uso
12
(174,250)
0.88
33
John Cena
22
(170,364)
0.86
34
Nikki Bella
9
(169,667)
0.86
35
Paige
8
(166,500)
0.84
36
Kalisto
8
(163,750)
0.83
37
Luke Harper
8
(163,500)
0.83
38
Braun Strowman
5
(160,600)
0.81
39
Roman Reigns
31
(159,452)
0.81
40
Sheamus
16
(152,625)
0.77
41
Dolph Ziggler
20
(152,000)
0.77
42
Adam Rose
7
(150,000)
0.76
43
Chris Jericho
4
(146,750)
0.74
44
Stardust
9
(143,111)
0.72
45
Diego
4
(140,000)
0.71
46
Natalya
4
(131,500)
0.67
47
Konnor
6
(131,000)
0.66
48
Alberto Del Rio
12
(124,167)
0.63
49
Viktor
7
(122,857)
0.62
50
Curtis Axel
4
(122,250)
0.62
51
Alicia Fox
4
(122,000)
0.62
52
Brie Bella
11
(120,091)
0.61
53
Bad News Barrett
6
(106,333)
0.54
54
Tyson Kidd
5
(100,000)
0.51
55
Charlotte
4
(86,500)
0.44
If you want to only look at people with 10+ matches here is the ranked list:
10+ MATCHES (FINAL + PENULTIMATE) ON RAW
PERSON
OVERALL
AVG LOSS
INDEX
Big E
21
(253,048)
1.28
Jey Uso
12
(249,917)
1.26
Cesaro
11
(249,364)
1.26
The Miz
12
(245,583)
1.24
Naomi
10
(244,500)
1.24
Kane
13
(228,462)
1.16
Kofi Kingston
17
(219,353)
1.11
Becky Lynch
10
(209,500)
1.06
The Big Show
10
(203,200)
1.03
Kevin Owens
15
(199,067)
1.01
Dean Ambrose
25
(198,600)
1.00
Ryback
12
(192,083)
0.97
Neville
10
(185,000)
0.94
Randy Orton
19
(184,737)
0.93
Rusev
12
(178,250)
0.90
Seth Rollins
31
(176,065)
0.89
Jimmy Uso
12
(174,250)
0.88
John Cena
22
(170,364)
0.86
Roman Reigns
31
(159,452)
0.81
Sheamus
16
(152,625)
0.77
Dolph Ziggler
20
(152,000)
0.77
Alberto Del Rio
12
(124,167)
0.63
Brie Bella
11
(120,091)
0.61
If you want to only look at people who were in the final match (i.e. the main event of Raw, though it's not always really positioned that way):
4+ MATCHES (FINAL) ON RAW
final
avg loss
index
Titus O'Neil
4
(357,000)
180.62
AJ Styles
4
(310,000)
156.84
Big E
14
(288,786)
146.11
Kofi Kingston
12
(285,500)
144.45
Ryback
6
(238,333)
120.58
Rusev
6
(229,000)
115.86
Cesaro
6
(227,500)
115.10
Bray Wyatt
8
(222,625)
112.63
The Big Show
8
(218,000)
110.29
Kane
11
(215,455)
109.01
Kevin Owens
10
(208,700)
105.59
Jey Uso
6
(207,667)
105.07
Jimmy Uso
6
(207,667)
105.07
Xavier Woods
7
(204,286)
103.36
Randy Orton
18
(200,000)
101.19
Dean Ambrose
20
(196,850)
99.59
Seth Rollins
29
(186,828)
94.52
John Cena
21
(185,143)
93.67
Roman Reigns
29
(180,448)
91.30
Neville
6
(173,333)
87.70
Sheamus
11
(170,455)
86.24
Daniel Bryan
6
(168,333)
85.17
Braun Strowman
5
(160,600)
81.25
Chris Jericho
4
(146,750)
74.25
Alberto Del Rio
10
(143,800)
72.75
Dolph Ziggler
10
(136,600)
69.11
Luke Harper
4
(132,000)
66.78
Stardust
6
(117,000)
59.19
Viktor
4
(91,500)
46.29
Konnor
4
(91,500)
46.29
10+ MATCHES (FINAL) ON RAW
final
avg loss
index
Big E
14
(288,786)
146.11
Kofi Kingston
12
(285,500)
144.45
Kane
11
(215,455)
109.01
Kevin Owens
10
(208,700)
105.59
Randy Orton
18
(200,000)
101.19
Dean Ambrose
20
(196,850)
99.59
Seth Rollins
29
(186,828)
94.52
John Cena
21
(185,143)
93.67
Roman Reigns
29
(180,448)
91.30
Sheamus
11
(170,455)
86.24
Alberto Del Rio
10
(143,800)
72.75
Dolph Ziggler
10
(136,600)
69.11
It shows that people like Randy Orton, Dean Ambrose, Seth Rollins, John Cena, Roman Reigns are near the middle of the pack while New Day has done poorly and Sheamus/ADR/Ziggler have done surprisingly well (in albeit fewer appearances).
Dataset: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1gqeXLFMHKlsx_7_Ik_4SYx8yLWJBB35EjO4JGSrOo4c/edit?usp=sharing Analysis by Chris Harrington @mookieghana (chris.harrington@gmail.com)
posted by Indeed Wrestling at 8:33 AM on Jun 8, 2016
"Viewership Losses in the 3rd Hour of Raw"
2 Comments -
Covering RAW from 9/1/14 to 6/6/16. I see Heath Slater has no match on LAST MATCH.
How about his victory over Seth Rollins on 4/8/14?
Now, I wonder if the calculation is correct for all the other superstars mentioned.
3:00 PM
I assume this is facetious because the period covered is only sept 2014 onwards.
3:06 PM