Do you believe that the North Korean Navy is as capable in submarine warfare as the Kriegsmarine was in 1939?. Because in October of that year the U-47 sneaked into Scapa Flow, sunk HMS Royal Oak and then sneaked back out again. If it was a submarine-fired torpedo that sunk the Cheonan, then the operation was one of the greatest feats of submarine warfare ever. Given the advances in ASW and the location (some of the most heavily monitored waters in the world), the sinking of the Cheonan was probably an even greater feat than the sinking of HMS Royal Oak. So why isn't Kim Jong-il proclaiming to the high heavens how great his navy is?
Could it be that it wasn't actually a North Korean submarine that launched the torpedo?
Was it "friendly fire" by a South Korean ship or submarine? I doubt it was a US sub, because Americans can't be relied on to keep a secret.
Was it a "pop-up" torpedo? One that lies on the seabed until it or a remote sensor detects a suitable target. Have the North Koreans developed and positioned such weapons and one went off by accident?
Was it a truck-launched long-range homing torpedo? The location where the Cheonan sank is about ten miles from North Korea and the Japanese WW2 Long Lance torpedo had a range of twenty five miles.
I don't know but it makes me wonder if the US Navy is still so confidant of being able to keep the Straits of Hormuz open without a land invasion of Iran.
U.S. Navy Admiral Thomas Eccles, described by Arirang as the "US representative on the Cheonan Investigation Team" (Eccles, like other JIG team members, is not identified in the 5-page report), provided this reply when asked in English the following question: "I was wondering what the other nations' representatives' specific roles in terms of investigation, and how do you analyze the final assessment."
Eccles: "The international team in close cooperation with the Republic of Korea Joint investigative group worked both in a collaborative way, very closely together, and also employing our separate tools and methods so we were able, before the torpedo debris was found, to analyze the evidence with experts, eyewitness and calculated and analytical methods, in all of those, we found an agreement, both within the Republic of Korea and all of the international team."
If this comment is accurate, Eccles is saying the international team, including the U.S. representatives, did not work with the torpedo evidence. Rather, they completed their investigation before the torpedo debris was found. The second section of the 5-page document describing North Korean responsibility for the Cheonan’s sinking rests heavily on the torpedo evidence. Since the international team did not have access to the torpedo debris, we can only conjecture on the basis for its findings. In the end, it seems the international team merely rubber stamped a South Korean conclusion of North Korean guilt.
But since Sweden was not one of the rubber stamping countries, possibly because it dissented from the guilty finding, the MCITF may have been contrived to bypass Swedish objections and at the same time preserve an aura of international impartiality.
Eccles conveys the impression that South Korea was in charge of the final phase of the JIG investigation. That final phase includes the discovery of the torpedo parts, the analysis of those parts (which includes the alleged North Korean Hangul marking) and, presumably, the write-up of the second section of the 5-page statement that charges North Korea with responsibility for the Cheonan's sinking.
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State auditors Friday accused Gen. Lee Sang-eui, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS), of being absent from the defense ministry's main command and control center on the night of March 26 when a South Korean Navy ship sank in the West Sea.
The JCS chief is also suspected of pretending that he was present at the control center throughout the night using a falsified document, according to officials at the Board of Audit and Inspection (BAI).
...
On Thursday, the BAI recommended the Ministry of National Defense punish 25 ranking military personnel, including Gen. Lee, for mishandling the North's attack on the Cheonan.
Lee slept at his office while under the influence of alcohol before showing up at the control center at 5 a.m. the next day, a BAI official said.
On March 26, Lee allegedly drank several shots of whiskey at a dinner with some 30 military officers in Daejeon, after holding a meeting with them on military preparedness.
Lee arrived at the headquarters of the Ministry of National Defense in Seoul, about one and a half hours after the incident was reported, the auditor said.
The Board of Audit and Inspection on Thursday said there is no very good reason to believe that the Sokcho, the nearest warship to the scene of the sinking of the ill-fated corvette Cheonan, fired at a flock of birds rather than a submarine on the day the Cheonan sank in the West Sea.
The military said the Sokcho had initially thought its target was a North Korean submarine fleeing after attacking the Cheonan and fired 135 shots with 76-mm cannon. However, the military claimed close investigation of the radar tracking device revealed that the shape sailors saw was a flock of birds.
The BAI's assessment is apparently based on testimony of sailors that the Second Naval Command ordered them to change their stories. The Sokcho initially reported to the Second Naval Command that sailors saw what appeared to be a new type of North Korean submarine, but the command ordered officers to change their testimony to a flock of birds in a briefing to the Joint Chiefs of Staff on March 27.
The BAI pointed out that military regulations ban speculation, addition or omission in initial reports to higher authorities. "Even during the audit, officers on the Sokcho did not change their opinion that it was a submarine and insisted that the radar tracking device did not show the image that could seen as a flock of birds," a BAI official said. "It is hard to understand how the change was made in reporting procedure."
He added the board believes the command acted out of fear of punishment over failing to take proper action in the initial stages after the sinking.
I'm not saying the South Korean response was pathetic.
I think the audit is pathetic.
I'm willing to believe that a North Korean mini-sub shadowed by a full-sized sub sank the Cheonan, even though the attack occurred against a modern ASW corvette, allegedly offshore of a joint U.S.-ROK ASW base, in waters with currents so violent that half of the Cheonan wreck was swept almost four miles away before it hit the bottom.
I'm also willing to believe that the South Korean military had a less-than-slam-dunk evidentiary case, and wouldn't be above using what bent cops in the U.S. call a "throwdown piece"--pitching a North Korean torpedo screw in the ocean to put the onus on the NORKs.
I do not believe that, in the aftermath of the sinking of an ROK naval vessel that claimed 46 lives, the Second Naval Command would suppress the story that its ship had alertly shelled a retreating submarine and instead lie to their Joint Chiefs of Staff that they idiotically fired on a flock of birds.
The audit looks more like an effort to plug some embarrassing holes in the official narrative and provide some pre-emptive sunshine inoculation to some questionable actions--including the ROK military's apparently serial enthusiasm for falsifying crucial records.
Add to chain-of-custody issues rumors that the survivors of the Cheonan have been sequestered to keep them from talking to the press, and the fact that the fuel is continually added to "friendly fire" allegation by shifting stories on the status of the Foal Eagle joint US-ROK military exercise (I believe the most recent reports have operations going on 75 miles away--just over the horizon, darn it!-- on the night of the incident), the South Koreans do not have a particularly sweet-smelling dossier to hand over the UN Security Council.
I wonder if the ROK report on the Cheonan would stand up to intense, critical scrutiny--of the kind that Israel's assault on the Mavi Marmara would receive--at the UN Security Council.
Maybe that's why South Korea isn't asking for censure or condemnation and may just settle for a grumpy letter from the president of the UNSC--their case is far from airtight.
But it's easier to blame the Chinese for shielding North Korea at the UNSC.
"South Korean Clown College Now In Session on Cheonan Sinking"
14 Comments -
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Do you believe that the North Korean Navy is as capable in submarine warfare as the Kriegsmarine was in 1939?. Because in October of that year the U-47 sneaked into Scapa Flow, sunk HMS Royal Oak and then sneaked back out again. If it was a submarine-fired torpedo that sunk the Cheonan, then the operation was one of the greatest feats of submarine warfare ever. Given the advances in ASW and the location (some of the most heavily monitored waters in the world), the sinking of the Cheonan was probably an even greater feat than the sinking of HMS Royal Oak. So why isn't Kim Jong-il proclaiming to the high heavens how great his navy is?
Could it be that it wasn't actually a North Korean submarine that launched the torpedo?
Was it "friendly fire" by a South Korean ship or submarine? I doubt it was a US sub, because Americans can't be relied on to keep a secret.
Was it a "pop-up" torpedo? One that lies on the seabed until it or a remote sensor detects a suitable target. Have the North Koreans developed and positioned such weapons and one went off by accident?
Was it a truck-launched long-range homing torpedo? The location where the Cheonan sank is about ten miles from North Korea and the Japanese WW2 Long Lance torpedo had a range of twenty five miles.
I don't know but it makes me wonder if the US Navy is still so confidant of being able to keep the Straits of Hormuz open without a land invasion of Iran.
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U.S. Navy Admiral Thomas Eccles, described by Arirang as the "US representative on the Cheonan Investigation Team" (Eccles, like other JIG team members, is not identified in the 5-page report), provided this reply when asked in English the following question: "I was wondering what the other nations' representatives' specific roles in terms of investigation, and how do you analyze the final assessment."
Eccles: "The international team in close cooperation with the Republic of Korea Joint investigative group worked both in a collaborative way, very closely together, and also employing our separate tools and methods so we were able, before the torpedo debris was found, to analyze the evidence with experts, eyewitness and calculated and analytical methods, in all of those, we found an agreement, both within the Republic of Korea and all of the international team."
If this comment is accurate, Eccles is saying the international team, including the U.S. representatives, did not work with the torpedo evidence. Rather, they completed their investigation before the torpedo debris was found. The second section of the 5-page document describing North Korean responsibility for the Cheonan’s sinking rests heavily on the torpedo evidence. Since the international team did not have access to the torpedo debris, we can only conjecture on the basis for its findings. In the end, it seems the international team merely rubber stamped a South Korean conclusion of North Korean guilt.
But since Sweden was not one of the rubber stamping countries, possibly because it dissented from the guilty finding, the MCITF may have been contrived to bypass Swedish objections and at the same time preserve an aura of international impartiality.
Eccles conveys the impression that South Korea was in charge of the final phase of the JIG investigation. That final phase includes the discovery of the torpedo parts, the analysis of those parts (which includes the alleged North Korean Hangul marking) and, presumably, the write-up of the second section of the 5-page statement that charges North Korea with responsibility for the Cheonan's sinking.
http://japanfocus.org/-John-McGlynn/3372
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How curious, Japanese writing (blamed on a non working font)
http://english.donga.com/srv/service.php3?bicode=050000&biid=2010062293198
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