There will be zero fall-out, because there can be no "outrage" here. No one can argue, with a straight face, that China has violated any legal or moral commitments by destroying one of her own satellites.
Your perception of the importance of the US missile defense program is also significantly off-target.
The cost of building additional ICBMs and nuclear devices is absolutely trivial. The expensive aspect of these systems are R&D, not production. But there are numerous available designs... not just existing nuclear ICBMs, but newer CZ rockets constantly refined as part of the civilian space program.
China has total confidence in its ability to maintain a nuclear deterrent, which is precisely why political/international/military relations with the US remain very positive.
Thanks for your comment. Dr. Lewis's dismay at the physical aspects of the test--turning a satellite into a giant pile of space mulch that will interfere with working satellites and fall to earth at inopportune moments--is certainly understandable, even if I disagree with him concerning the opportunity for space demilitarization that he believes the Chinese are throwing away.
Thanks for pointing out that China has new and improved ICBM designs in the can that it could put into production in short order.
However, as to your point of China's "total confidence" in its deterrent, it seems to me that ambiguity is at the heart of any deterrent program: one side always has to keep the other guy wondering about how good his countermeasures are. And the fact that China is willing to spend the financial, technological, and diplomatic capital on an ASAT program implies that it is somewhat concened about BMD and feels its deterrent could use a little beefing up.
Doesn't the US have a "space dominance" policy that is a Monroe doctrine of sorts for space? That is the US will prevent other countries from acquiring or challenging US superiority in space? This move by the commie's clearly challenges this doctrine and it's time to put this policy into action and impose sanctions on China. The Chinese economy will sink in 2 months without the US market. 1 billion protests will break out because of this idiotic act by the commies.
9:44 PM
Comment deleted
This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.
don vo... and how fast will our economy sink when China decides to demand payment on all those loans we owe them, plus interest? Also, who is going to manufacture all our cheap stuff without China?
Chinese/American relations is a 500 pound weight held up by two people at once. Neither can let go, but both are trying to see who can shift more weight onto the other man's shoulders. Blind faith in American exceptionalism has no value here.
The real goal of the chinese test is to prepare itself against an US participation in the defense of Taiwan.
The US military plans rely heavily on the existing satellite networks. Without them, tacitcal and strategic decisions will be made in a dense fog and may very well deprive the US the confidence it needs to enter into direct combat with China over Taiwan.
Another point the chinese is making is to "show off" it's cards. By adding another "card" in it's hand, it will be able to use it as a mean of negotiating a potential test ban on missle defense and anti-satellite weapons. By combining the 2 issues, China will have at least some leverage in promoting and negotiating an international bad on missle defense in space based systems.
The notion that this test was intended to create a sort of reset is entirely plausible, save for the fact that Chinese leaders must have calculated that Cheney and even Rice would never go for it.
Still, I doubt that China has abandoned the possiblity of any space treaty.
As you note, not a bad day for the missile defense appropriators.
cheap vibram five fingers ?Monster Beats Lebron supplied are ample and experience additional pleasure and comfort as possible
Monster Beats Diddy Beats Might it be that they spend small money, but really free mind?Following medical benefits of without athletic shoes running, the popularity associated with expensive fivefingers really get the gospel to those who require their liberite nervous
vibrams 5 fingers The idea that our foot without shoes using rubber soles, everyone has evolved over the long term
Vibram Five Fingers Speed 3 decades ago has been found, however it is applicable in the modern day world
Beats by medical professional dre - In the dojos of artists plus producers to fix the position for a very long time as well as the sound is perfect
ehicles Department spokeswoman Patricia Klinger said this company features due to the fact cleared up the actual warnings plus the scenario seemed to be sealed Cheap Air Max Shoes Corporation spokesperson Alan Jeffers explained there was zero primary association amongst people problems and also the direction failureThe organization previously downplayed statements from state as air jordan clearance well as government authorities of which harm through the pour has been distribute over many mile after mileOhydratesLAUREL, MontIJUANA, The philipines (AP) United states holidaymakers Air Max Shoes on an yearly Come early july Four reef fishing vacation were plunged into your Beach connected with California during the evening after a display storm air jordan shoes upended his or her vessel, killing at least one OughoutOhydrates He / she offered this oyster tasting, saying to Kate "this is where you controlnet Air Jordan assessments this legitimateness of movie star weibos and contains certified this Radiohead weibo since trueAnthony Fast, coverage analyzer while using Natural Means Safety Local authority Air Jordan Cheap or council, mentioned the belief that Exxon Mobil's Silvertip series ended up being apparently throughout submission having federal government guidelines underscores that those guidelines ought Cheap Nike Air Max to be heightened
I’m glad to have found this post as it’s such an interesting one having very informative thoughts. Thank you for this post. As the largest national distributor of artificial grass supplier, focuses on quality and technology for all of its products. Our synthetic grass products are sold and distributed on a large nationwide scale to supply the rising requests for turf. With this growing demand for our products, Wholesale Turf is always seeking new quality turf specialists who desire a superior product to compliment their installation process.
Excellent post. We have found that discussing things like this within a group provides better results. American Finance Solutions provides merchant cash advances programs to help businesses obtain enough capital to ensure success.
11:26 PM
Apparently the delicate sensors of the arms control fraternity picked up a frisson—a shudder of excitement—from the Forum on Space and Defense in Colorado Springs.
The rumor is that the Chinese government destroyed one of its own obsolete satellites, identified as FY-1C, in a test of an ASAT—anti-satellite weapon.
Dr. Jeffrey Lewis of Arms Control Wonk is not pleased:
If China has conducted an ASAT test, this is extremely bad. I had been hoping that the Bush Administration would push for a ban on anti-satellite testing, either in the form of a code of conduct. The Bush folks, however, have been fond of saying that wasn’t necessary, because “there is no arms race in space.”
Well, we have one now, instigated by an incredibly short-sighted Chinese government. (I suspect this test will have also created a massive debris problem).
The United States and other space-faring states should demarche the Chinese government for what is a stupid, clumsy and short-sighted decision.
Although this idiotic move by the Chinese government will demonstrate why we don’t want hit-to-kill ASAT testing in orbit—that will be a long-term recognition. In the short-term, the Chinese will simply not be credible partners in efforts to keep space peaceful. Moreover, other countries could follow suit with their own anti-satellite programs, including the United States.
This is a very disappointing day.
For deep, reasoned analysis of Chinese motives and priorities, we will apparently have to wait for the publication of Dr. Lewis’s forthcoming Minimum Means of Reprisal.
China Matters, on the other hand, will provide some non-specialist shoot-from-the-hip spitballing.
2006 has apparently been a very good year for the U.S. missile defense initiative, even if the over-the-top boo-yahing of Martin Sieff, UPI’s cheerleader-in-chief for missile defense systems and the people who love them, is discounted.
The Department of Defense has shed the Rumsfeldian incubus of reckless cost-cutting, and development and testing has been returned to the sober-sided, meticulous pocket protector crowd. As a result, the tests are actually working and the multi-billion dollar military-industrial gravy train will keep on rolling along.
Spurred by the North Korean missile contretemps, the neoconservative Abe government has put missile defense on the front burner. It’s talking about setting up a joint U.S. Japan ballistic defense facility in Nagasaki, as a counter to all-purpose bugbear Kim Jung Il and, in the future, China.
India is developing its own missile defense system and, in a development sure to warm Chinese hearts, is also working on an ICBM with " the potential range to hit any target in China”.
Conversely, it’s been a bad year for China and its rickety deterrent force of a couple dozen ICBMs.
It’s long been suspected by me, some guy at FAS, and the Chinese themselves that the mission of the burgeoning missile defense infrastructure in Alaska is probably not to stop a hail of ICBMs from Kim Jung Il’s grandson when the system reaches full capability mid-century.
Probably, the whole Missile Defense thing is an effort to knock down the (relatively) strongest leg of the shaky Chinese nuclear deterrent triad, its ICBMs.
And that means China is left without a credible riposte to U.S. use of tactical nuclear weapons to forestall an invasion of Taiwan.
Now, I suppose the Chinese could try to restore their ICBM deterrent by building a bunch of newer, better missiles, something the rest of the world would regard as destabilizing even if the Chinese themselves considered it restabilizing.
Or the Chinese could try to level the playing field by clearing the skies over China of the US satellites the missile defense system will rely on to get the whole early warning and response ball rolling.
I don’t think that the Chinese will start plunking US satellites as they pass overhead.
This test may be more in the nature of a calculated outrage—like the North Korean nuclear test—an attempt to reset the agenda and an announce that the status quo ante is no longer acceptable and China’s new pretensions and priorities as a world and space power must be accommodated.
Maybe the Chinese will even promote the idea of sovereign skies—that a country has the right to control what satellites cross its borders and compromise its security, no matter how high up—especially since the United States, keen to protect its perceived technological advantages, has scorned a treaty to keep missile defense systems out of space.
China, of course, has been acutely aware of America’s dominance in eye in the sky matters and is always looking for ways counter the US advantage—such as using Russian SAMs to shoot down the U2s we sent over China with Taiwanese pilots in the 1960s.
Maybe now they are setting their sights higher and, in a piece of spacewar kungfu, challenge us using our very own U.S. National Space Policy, authorized by President Bush on August 31, 2006, against us.
The policy is the usual piece of unilateral, militarized, pre-emptive chest thumping we’ve come to expect from the Bush administration, but in this case it may be a fatal bit of overreach.
Instead of strengthening the American position in space by placing our space interests beyond international interference, it could open the door for other powers to assert their right to order their corner of space as they see fit.
The money quotes:
The United States rejects any claims by any nation over outer space or celestial bodies...and rejects any limitations on the fundamental right of the United States to operate in and acquire data from space;
The United States considers space systems to have the rights of passage through and operations in space without interference. Consistent with this principle, the United States will view purposeful interference with its space systems as an infringement on its rights;
The United States considers space capabilities...vital to its national interests. Consistent with this policy, the United States will reserve its rights, capabilities, and freedom of action in space; dissuade or deter others from either impeding those rights or developing capabilities intended to do so; take those actions necessary to protect its space capabilities; respond to interference; and deny, if necessary, adversaries the use of space capabilities hostile to U.S. national interests;
The trouble is in the last paragraph. It goes well beyond “freedom of the cosmos”--a formulation pretty difficult to attack-- to a pretty bald unilateral assertion of U.S. space hegemony.
And it’s nakedly based on a narrow concept of U.S. national interest, rather than the status of World War II victor and guarantor of a new world order that gives us a spot on the U.N. Security Council, or benevolent nuclear elder and dispenser of goodies to the atomic have-nots that underlies our dominant role in the NPT.
Our privileges in space are as freshly minted, brash, suspect, and untested as the Bush administration that proclaimed them.
Just the thing to raise the hackles at Zhongnanhai, particularly as it sees China becoming enmeshed in a web of satellites, ships, subs, and missile defenses meant to eliminate its strategic deterrent.
Maybe now, with Bush at his weakest, is the time for China to challenge the President’s unilateral formulation and declare that “facts in the sky” demonstrate that China has the right and ability to protect itself from the satellite vanguards of the U.S. ballistic missile defense.
Beijing may abandon hopes of any multilateral treaty to demilitarize space.
Instead, broad-spectrum pursuit of its own security—including ASAT defenses and the assertion of the right to deploy and use them--and bilateral negotiations from a position of increased strength would form the core of a new Chinese space doctrine.
It will be interesting to see what fall-out—physically, militarily, and diplomatically--the destruction of FY-1C will bring.
"China Wants a Piece of the Sky"
21 Comments -
There will be zero fall-out, because there can be no "outrage" here. No one can argue, with a straight face, that China has violated any legal or moral commitments by destroying one of her own satellites.
Your perception of the importance of the US missile defense program is also significantly off-target.
The cost of building additional ICBMs and nuclear devices is absolutely trivial. The expensive aspect of these systems are R&D, not production. But there are numerous available designs... not just existing nuclear ICBMs, but newer CZ rockets constantly refined as part of the civilian space program.
China has total confidence in its ability to maintain a nuclear deterrent, which is precisely why political/international/military relations with the US remain very positive.
10:35 AM
Thanks for your comment. Dr. Lewis's dismay at the physical aspects of the test--turning a satellite into a giant pile of space mulch that will interfere with working satellites and fall to earth at inopportune moments--is certainly understandable, even if I disagree with him concerning the opportunity for space demilitarization that he believes the Chinese are throwing away.
Thanks for pointing out that China has new and improved ICBM designs in the can that it could put into production in short order.
However, as to your point of China's "total confidence" in its deterrent, it seems to me that ambiguity is at the heart of any deterrent program: one side always has to keep the other guy wondering about how good his countermeasures are. And the fact that China is willing to spend the financial, technological, and diplomatic capital on an ASAT program implies that it is somewhat concened about BMD and feels its deterrent could use a little beefing up.
2:14 PM
Doesn't the US have a "space dominance" policy that is a Monroe doctrine of sorts for space? That is the US will prevent other countries from acquiring or challenging US superiority in space? This move by the commie's clearly challenges this doctrine and it's time to put this policy into action and impose sanctions on China. The Chinese economy will sink in 2 months without the US market. 1 billion protests will break out because of this idiotic act by the commies.
9:44 PM
This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.
9:53 PM
don vo...
and how fast will our economy sink when China decides to demand payment on all those loans we owe them, plus interest? Also, who is going to manufacture all our cheap stuff without China?
Chinese/American relations is a 500 pound weight held up by two people at once. Neither can let go, but both are trying to see who can shift more weight onto the other man's shoulders. Blind faith in American exceptionalism has no value here.
6:25 AM
Wait a minute, I thought we (the USA) were the only ones in the world allowed to do stuff like this??!!
www.minor-ripper.blogspot.com
7:16 AM
The real goal of the chinese test is to prepare itself against an US participation in the defense of Taiwan.
The US military plans rely heavily on the existing satellite networks. Without them, tacitcal and strategic decisions will be made in a dense fog and may very well deprive the US the confidence it needs to enter into direct combat with China over Taiwan.
Another point the chinese is making is to "show off" it's cards. By adding another "card" in it's hand, it will be able to use it as a mean of negotiating a potential test ban on missle defense and anti-satellite weapons.
By combining the 2 issues, China will have at least some leverage in promoting and negotiating an international bad on missle defense in space based systems.
12:50 PM
The notion that this test was intended to create a sort of reset is entirely plausible, save for the fact that Chinese leaders must have calculated that Cheney and even Rice would never go for it.
Still, I doubt that China has abandoned the possiblity of any space treaty.
As you note, not a bad day for the missile defense appropriators.
www.chinaredux.com
5:32 PM
網頁設計,網頁設計公司,最新消息,訪客留言,網站導覽
情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品
色情遊戲,寄情築園小遊戲,情色文學,一葉情貼圖片區,情人視訊網,辣妹視訊,情色交友,成人論壇,情色論壇,愛情公寓,情色,舊情人,情色貼圖,色情聊天室,色情小說,做愛,做愛影片,性愛
免費視訊聊天室,aio交友愛情館,愛情公寓,一葉情貼圖片區,情色貼圖,情色文學,色情聊天室,情色小說,情色電影,情色論壇,成人論壇,辣妹視訊,視訊聊天室,情色視訊,免費視訊,免費視訊聊天,視訊交友網,視訊聊天室,視訊美女,視訊交友,視訊交友90739,UT聊天室,聊天室,豆豆聊天室,尋夢園聊天室,聊天室尋夢園,080聊天室,080苗栗人聊天室,女同志聊天室,上班族聊天室,小高聊天室
AV,AV女優
視訊,影音視訊聊天室,視訊交友
視訊,影音視訊聊天室,視訊聊天室,視訊交友,視訊聊天,視訊美女,視訊辣妹,免費視訊聊天室
自慰器,自慰器
5:31 AM
艾葳酒店經紀提供專業的酒店經紀,酒店上班,酒店打工、兼職、酒店相關知識等酒店相關產業服務,想加入這行業的水水們請找專業又有保障的艾葳酒店經紀公司!
艾葳酒店經紀是合法的公司、我們是不會跟水水簽任何的合約 ( 請放心 )，我們是不會強押水水辛苦工作的薪水，我們絕對不會對任何人公開水水的資料、工作環境高雅時尚，無業績壓力，無脫秀無喝酒壓力，高層次會員制客源，工作輕鬆。
一般的酒店經紀只會在水水們第一次上班和領薪水時出現而已，對水水們的上班安全一點保障都沒有！艾葳酒店經紀公司的水水們上班時全程媽咪作陪，不需擔心！只提供最優質的酒店上班環境、上班條件給水水們。
10:40 PM
Microsoft Office
Office 2010
Microsoft Office 2010
Office 2010 key
Office 2010 download
Office 2010 Professional
Microsoft outlook
Outlook 2010
Windows 7
Microsoft outlook 2010
1:32 AM
gulamin chat en kaliteli sohbet chat siteleri ve sohbet odaları olmaya aday canlı sohbet sitesidir. sohbet siteleri arasında lider olmaya devam ediyor.
Ayrıca ahmet kaya sitemizde sanatçıya ait albümler ve haberler bulunmaktadır. bedava sohbet etmek icin linklere tıklayınız.sohbet siteleri engüzel sohbet burda...
sohbet odası sohbet odası
7:49 AM
cheap vibram five fingers
?Monster Beats Lebron supplied are ample and experience additional pleasure and comfort as possible
Monster Beats Diddy Beats
Might it be that they spend small money, but really free mind?Following medical benefits of without athletic shoes running, the popularity associated with expensive fivefingers really get the gospel to those who require their liberite nervous
vibrams 5 fingers
The idea that our foot without shoes using rubber soles, everyone has evolved over the long term
Vibram Five Fingers Speed
3 decades ago has been found, however it is applicable in the modern day world
Beats by medical professional dre - In the dojos of artists plus producers to fix the position for a very long time as well as the sound is perfect
vibrams five fingers shoes
6:05 AM
thanks to admin new cars review, auto price, cars review, cars specs, informasi terbaru, berita terbaru, film terbaru
12:04 PM
ehicles Department spokeswoman Patricia Klinger said this company features due to the fact cleared up the actual warnings plus the scenario seemed to be sealed Cheap Air Max Shoes Corporation spokesperson Alan Jeffers explained there was zero primary association amongst people problems and also the direction failureThe organization previously downplayed statements from state as air jordan clearance well as government authorities of which harm through the pour has been distribute over many mile after mileOhydratesLAUREL, MontIJUANA, The philipines (AP) United states holidaymakers Air Max Shoes on an yearly Come early july Four reef fishing vacation were plunged into your Beach connected with California during the evening after a display storm air jordan shoes upended his or her vessel, killing at least one OughoutOhydrates He / she offered this oyster tasting, saying to Kate "this is where you controlnet Air Jordan assessments this legitimateness of movie star weibos and contains certified this Radiohead weibo since trueAnthony Fast, coverage analyzer while using Natural Means Safety Local authority Air Jordan Cheap or council, mentioned the belief that Exxon Mobil's Silvertip series ended up being apparently throughout submission having federal government guidelines underscores that those guidelines ought Cheap Nike Air Max to be heightened
8:17 PM
good blog, i like this, thx admin, please suport my post :D Peluang Bisnis Online Tanpa Ribet and Peluang Bisnis Online Tanpa Ribet
12:26 PM
air max 2009 men
air max 95 men
air max 90 men
ugg boots 5815
ugg boots 5825
air jordan 13
air jordan 11
11:30 PM
Hi.. Thanks for this awesome and useful post..
News Car Info Daily Health Tips Growing Houseplants
Dhandycraft Feminine Beauty
4:01 PM
thx to admin
Century 21 Broker Properti Jual Beli Sewa Rumah Indonesia
century 21,
jual beli properti,
century 21 broker properti,
Jual Beli Rumah,
Kontes Century 21 Broker Properti,
Jual Beli Sewa Rumah Indonesia,
Ajang Kontes SEO Century 21
7:44 AM
I’m glad to have found this post as it’s such an interesting one having very informative thoughts. Thank you for this post.
As the largest national distributor of artificial grass supplier, focuses on quality and technology for all of its products. Our synthetic grass products are sold and distributed on a large nationwide scale to supply the rising requests for turf. With this growing demand for our products, Wholesale Turf is always seeking new quality turf specialists who desire a superior product to compliment their installation process.
6:43 PM
Excellent post. We have found that discussing things like this within a group provides better results. American Finance Solutions provides merchant cash advances programs to help businesses obtain enough capital to ensure success.
11:26 PM