BP's 5-year PECOTA projection for Young was made last spring, when it looked like his career had completely flatlined. With 3.1 WARP1 this year, you could probably peg him for 2+ WARP for each of the next 2 years -- although you're still correct in the fact that he's not really worth $5 million per.
Excellent point. If I were a betting man, and I am not, I would still put him below 1.0 for 2009.
8/02/2007 11:17 AM
Joe and a few of his non-friends chatted Tuesday -- briefly, in Joe's case -- about the trade deadline. Let's waste everyone's time, shall we, Joe?
Kyle (MN): What are the chances that the red sox get Dye, and what would they give uo for him?
Joe Morgan: I have no idea what they'd have to give up for him, because I don't know which direction the White Sox are going in.
Ken Tremendous: Is that really the reason you have no idea what they'd have to give up for him? Or is it that you don't know the names of any minor league players in any team's system, and that you don't do any research at all, and have no idea what packages are being floated? Maybe that's it? Because everyone and his internet-accessible brother knew that the package had something to do with Wily Mo Pena and Craig Hansen.
Are they going to go with young players?
No. They want old, expensive, broken-down veterans. They're going to trade Dye for Mike Hampton, Mo Vaughn, Steve Sax, and Albert Belle.
They're still trying to feel their way through this season. They'll likely make their decision in the winter and try to make trades then.
You have no idea what you are talking about.
Joe Wilck (Farmville, VA): Hey Joe! How was Coopertown?
KT: If the Coopertown typo was intentional, kudos to Joe Wilck.
Joe Morgan: It was fabulous. It was the most-attended induction in the history of the ceremony. There are usually 25-30,000 people there, but there were 75,000 this weekend. Tony Gwynn and Cal Ripken both made very fine speeches.
For future reference, if you want Joe to answer a question, make it about the Hall of Fame Induction Ceremony. He can handle those.
Josh (Newport Beach): Do the Angels need to make a deal, or can the stand pat and realistically make the Series?
Joe Morgan: They would love to make a deal. They need one starting pitcher and a bat. They're not in a panic, though; they have a very good ballclub and have been in first most of the season. Another starter and hitter would solidify their claim to being a world championship team.
KT: Is there any less specific analysis than "They would like a good pitcher and a good hitter?" It is timeless, generic, and unhelpful. If Joe were an actual analyst -- and I am forced repeatedly to conclude that he is not -- he might have said something about Bill Stoneman's historic reluctance to make deadline deals. He might also cite the Angels' essential stand-still payroll-wise over the last four years, or the uncharacteristic weakness of the A's this year, or something. Instead, what ESPN pays him to say is: "They would like to get a good pitcher and a good hitter." Which is true of every single team, every single year. So, nice work.
Jeremy (NJ): Hey, Joe. Lost in all of the trade deadline talks is the fact that we could see Glavine win his 300th game, A-Rod become the youngest to 500 HRs, and Bonds tie Aaron's 755 HR record, all in the same night! If these 3 things all were to happen tonight, would it be the single biggest day in baseball history?
Joe Morgan: I don't know that it would be the biggest, because I wouldn't know how you would gauge it.
KT: You don't know. You have no idea. You can't tell. You can't say for sure. You don't like to guess. You don't know the details. You won't, you can't, you don't, you stink.
You'd have to ask Tim Kurkjian or someone like that that kind of question.
Ask someone else. Leave me alone. Stop asking me questions about baseball. Why do you even think I want to answer questions about baseball? Because I'm ESPN's #1 analyst and I am currently participating in a chat where people ask me questions about baseball and I answer them? That doesn't mean anything. Screw off.
It would definitely be a fabulous occurrence for one night.
There you go. Nice work.
Charlie (NYC): Joe, do you think that the Dmitri Young extension by the Nationals was a good move?
Joe Morgan: You have to keep talent if you're going to build, even if you're going to trade him later for value. He's been their best hitter, so yes, I think it was a good move.
KT: Fire this man. Immediately.
Dmeathook:
Age: 34 in October Career EqA: .283 Fat?: Yes Coming off a series of major injuries?: Yes Projected WARP in 2008: 0.9 Projected WARP in 2009: 0.4
Jeff (Iowa): Joe, should we all pitch in and buy Jose Canseco a ticket out of town?
Joe Morgan: Well, it depends on how you look at it. If Canseco hadn't written his original book, we wouldn't know about guys using steroids. It depends on if that's the right thing to do. It's not Congress that got us steroid testing, it's Canseco that got it to the forefront and Congress that pushed it the rest of the way. If you wanted to know what was happening, you have to give him credit for bringing it to the forefront; if not, you can be angry at him for messing up the images of some of the players. I personally think he did baseball a service because steroid use could have become rampant, with players doing permanent damage to their bodies. It gave us a chance to decide where we wanted to go with it.
KT: Most of this is fine. But I like that he says, "I personally think he did baseball a service because steroid use could have become rampant."
Yes. Thank god steroid use didn't become rampant in baseball. That was a close one.
1 Comment
Close this window Jump to comment formNeil points out:
BP's 5-year PECOTA projection for Young was made last spring, when it looked like his career had completely flatlined. With 3.1 WARP1 this year, you could probably peg him for 2+ WARP for each of the next 2 years -- although you're still correct in the fact that he's not really worth $5 million per.
Excellent point. If I were a betting man, and I am not, I would still put him below 1.0 for 2009.
8/02/2007 11:17 AM