Promises Made

Irony?

2007-11-25T14:40:00.000-05:00

Who among us thought that W would probably think more about the president of Pakistan than any other leader during his terms in office? I am sure Andy Hiller never fantasized his question would be so relevant. CNN certainly had no clue.

Who is Travis Patriquin?

2007-10-23T00:38:00.001-04:00

We should all know.

Discrimination is wrong ... except when it is for the greater good

2007-10-16T11:36:00.000-04:00

It is illegal to discriminate by age in the EU, except when it is not. An EU court rules that it is fine to enforce a mandatory retirement age in order to save the pension system... So much for human rights and freedoms.

Older Early Retirement

2007-09-04T15:47:00.000-04:00

This paper argues for raising the early retirement age for Social Security to 63.5 from 62 in order to extend the typical working life. A core argument in it is that only 10 percent of workers would be negatively affected by being unable to work during those extra 18 months. What the paper does not consider is how many will die before they will be able to collect. Death is, of course, a boon to social security since it saves 100 percent of payments in those cases.

After looking around the internet, it would appear that about 1.5 percent of 62 year olds will die by the time they are 63.5.

Why Not?

2007-09-04T10:08:00.001-04:00

Get a roommate? Why not?

WSJ on Home Prices

2007-09-04T09:16:00.000-04:00

The Wall Street Journal has an popular take on over-priced California homes. It seems there a couple ways a home's value can be derived -- replacement cost (the cost to build the house and buy the land) and economic value of the rents (the potential rental income minus operating costs divided by the expected return sought). By my calculations, housing is expensive by both measures today.

Michael Yon ...

2007-08-27T13:57:00.000-04:00

"Al Qaeda promised them everything under the baking sun, yet al Qaeda killed people who smoked—and Iraqis like to smoke."

Hertzberg Blogs ...

2007-08-27T13:21:00.000-04:00

But no comments here.

NYer Giuliani Time ...

2007-08-27T12:57:00.001-04:00

Despite pages of analysis, this article fails to discuss the electoral college (EC) math that would seem to make Rudy Giuliani a formidable candidate. My instincts sense that Rudy's real difference from other Republicans is that he could upset the electoral college apple cart win a head-to-head race against Hillary in New York. (This April poll puts Clinton ahead by 14 points -- but I have heard of others that are different).

Rudy's EC strength: Puts New York (31 EVs), New Jersey (17 EVs) and Connecticut (7 EVs) back into play. If he picks up those states, that swings 55 electoral votes -- or about one-fifth of what Kerry picked up.

Rudy's EC weakness: If he does not carry those states, he runs a real risk of losing states such as Iowa and New Mexico and perhaps more.

A Rudy/Hillary finals could also serve to lance the venomous partisan boil that has been building for a while now -- after all, Americans of all stripes can agree on the fact that they resent and despise New Yorkers.

Markets Work -- Even in New Jersey.

2006-08-24T09:49:00.000-04:00

An amazing story out of New Jersey picked up in the New York Times ... it seems that insurance rates are coming down now that regulators are standing aside and letting the market work. In the past, politicians had forced insurers to make up losses in high loss areas such as Newark through increased rates in the suburbs (redistribution at its finest).

Of course, the insurers responded by not picking up the phone when calls came from Newark, so the bad drivers could not buy insurance and the people in the suburbs were gauged, so they bought less. That, of course, meant a smaller insurance pool and the start of a downward spiral.

Things hit bottom three years ago and regulators finally threw in the towel, opening the market and letting insurers set rates by their own formulas.

Miracle of miracles, even the bad drivers in Newark are paying less than they were before in some cases.

Kerry in need of "relativism refresher"

2006-08-17T12:44:00.000-04:00

John Kerry's last mailer contained this gem.

"If the Bush administration could plan and execute the war on terror as well as it executes its shameless pre-election fear-mongering, we'd all be a lot safer."

If Bush's opponents were as organized and intelligent as the terrorists in planning and executing their fight, perhaps they would have won the last presidential election...

Juba the Sniper is Dutch?

2006-08-17T10:41:00.000-04:00

There is (was?) sniper(s) on the loose in Baghdad going by the name of "Juba" who filmed himself sniping at (and presumably killing) American soldiers. It seems that in July 2005 he failed to finish off one of his targets -- Pfc. Stephen Tschiderer -- and was captured by U.S. soldiers (video).

Though it is now old news, this is the first I have heard of Juba. What is most interesting is that he appears to be of Dutch citizenship and was born in Morocco. Still, I guess he was a hero to some Iraqi's and that his DVDs are a hot item on the Iraqi streets.

The Dutch Juba was wounded and captured in a van outfitted with mattresses four soundproofing, according to various Web sites. Apparantly the attacks are still continuing.

Why No Attacks Since 9/11?

2006-08-13T12:37:00.000-04:00

Despite daily bombings in Iraq, train bombings in England, Spain and India, rocketing of Israelm, bombings of Indonesia, there have been no organized terrorist attacks in the past five years on U.S. soil Why not? Eleanor Clift has the answer on this week's McLaughlin Group:

The fact that they haven't attacked for the past five years is not because President Bush is keeping us safer; it is because they are really methodically plotting something and they do not want to do something that is anti-climatic.

That's right Eleanor. I can see the weekly planning meeting now:

Meeting Leader: "C'mon people. We need good ideas! Who has one ... and Ali, the meeting to poison the watermellon at the IBM corporate picnic was a good one, but not big enough. We need to think bigger!

Assembled group gives blank stares, all look down at table.

ML: O.K. People, sometime and place next week, but bring ideas!

Yeah, that's the reason. Keep thinking hard Eleanor.

Eliot the Zealot

2006-05-31T19:15:00.000-04:00

Just wanted to use the headline before someone else did. Listening to his "Day One" speech sparked the the thought and brought forth all my memories of his zealotry over the past half decade. Funny thing is, Teddy Roosevelt the child was more frightened of monstrous "zeals" than anything else ... and Eliot thinks he is the reincarnation of Teddy.

Don't Know Much About History

2005-12-13T09:41:00.000-05:00

Did John Murtha fail history?

Murtha offered a rebuttal to Bush's comparison to the American experience. "If they'd have kept the French here after 1776 . . . we'd have thrown them out," he said. "And that's what I say about what's happening in Iraq right now. The Iraqis are not against democracy. They're against our occupation."

As anyone who stayed awake in class should know, it was Gates' victory overy Burgoyne at Saratoga (obviously that battled was fought after the July, 1776 Declaration) that convinced the French they should support us. They landed in Newport, Rhode Island in 1778.

I am always shocked that our elected Representative know so little about the country and its past. And that applies to all parties.

Village Voice Has Half the Story

2005-12-05T15:21:00.000-05:00

Interesting take on 401(k) plans and pensions in the Village Voice. The article notes that people lost up to one third of their accounts in the Nasdaq crash. What it leaves out is that the stock market has regained most of its losses (Dow from 11k to 7.2k back to 10.8k today). People who continued to contribute to their plan probably have a gain because they bought more shares at lower prices than at the 11k level which the Dow only touched briefly.

The article also bemoans the loss of "guaranteed" monthly pension checks. Funny, but those arguing for DB plans and Social Security never seem to ask what the cost of that monthly check is. You know, if you are so disposed you can use your 401(k) balance to buy one or more annuities (those monthly guaranteed checks). No one is stopping you from doing so.

The problem with DB plans for many people is that they do not stay in one job long enough to vest in a significant benefit. At least with a 401(k) plan you can consistently build your retirement savings from job to job without having to start over.

Even Clinton-administration refugee like Alicia Munnell admits that the expected benefit under the two types of plans will, on average, be the same, though an individual's mileage may very (see her book). People who stay in one job for life will be better off in a DB plan, those who move around will benefit best from a 401(k).

Oh yes, you can also choose to take your DB plan balance as a lump sum if you so choose; that would be like, you know, a 401(k) plan.

Bloomberg Goes to the Dogs

2005-12-05T11:44:00.000-05:00

It looks like Hizzoner has found some new constituents ...

Workers Paradise ... Yeah Right

2005-12-05T11:09:00.000-05:00

What happens when you cap gas prices? It looks like employees will steal the gas. And then you have to call out the army...

Brilliant!

2005-11-28T19:35:00.000-05:00

This is brilliant!

NPR Biased?

2005-11-28T13:35:00.000-05:00

How hard is it to be fair? Over the weekend I heard an interesting "letters from listeners" segment on NPR. One listener was respondeding to what I guess was a debate between two Iraq veterans about the war in which the pro-Bush policy veteran argued that the "million" deaths in Vietnam following our pull out could be repeated in Iraq if we leave.

That listener questioned the "million deaths" figure.

NPR's host told listeners that the news organization followed up with its own research into the matter and that though reports to the number of deaths differed depending on the source, "none" reached one million. That was it! The host then left me hanging. How many did die? 100,000? 500,000? 1? NPR gave no answer.

So, I started looking for the answer.

Wikepedia.org does not provide a count, though it does report that "The new unified Vietnamese government also took it upon themselves to punish the indigenous highland Montagnard tribes" and Between 1975 and 1978, the Vietnamese government carried out retributions against the highland tribes; imprisoning or executing nearly all prominent tribal leaders and confiscating fertile tribal lands for coffee plantations. Several human rights groups, including Human Rights Watch, has called this an act of genocide."

That source adds that more than 2 million "boat people" fled Vietnam after Saigon's fall (I have met some of those people personally, their stories are heartbreaking).

Still, no numbers here.

More looking turned up an article in the National Review by a Vietnamese article that was published just two years after the fall of Saigon. That source cited 300,000 Vietnamese sent to "reeducation camps" and as many as 20,000 suicides ... but it is a right wing source, so the search cannot end.

This source, which summarizes deaths from all wars pegs the figure at 430,000. Can't tell how credible it is though.

I guess 400,000 is less than 1 million. It is still an appalling figure though.

Deuce Four on the Silver Screen

2005-11-28T13:19:00.000-05:00

The talk on the right-wing blogs (such as Captain's Quarters) is that Bruce Willis is planning to film a movie based on the Mosul-based unit tracked by Michael Yon on his blog Left wing blogs (like Atrios) are saying "who cares?", but they are talking about it. TBogg openly wonders if the Willis will perform as badly as "The Great Raid" did at the box office.

Of course, it could do as well as this movie.

Personally, I am just hoping for a good flick ... the story on Yon's blog suggest that the potential is there.

Why I Hate Politicians

2005-10-04T13:19:00.000-04:00

This is from the AP. Makes perfect sense to me (not), satellite providers are exempt from the franchise tax primarily because they were founded after cable companies and only secondarily because they don't rely on the public infrastructure?

Cable industry wants tax on satellite subscribers
Consumers who receive satellite television service in Massachusetts would face a 5 percent tax under the terms of a proposed House bill, a move the cable TV industry is pushing because satellite providers such as DirecTV are competing with them for subscribers. The proposal, filed by Representative John Quinn, a Dartmouth Democrat, would levy the tax on both cable and satellite TV users, but wording in the bill -- written by the cable industry -- would then nullify the charge for cable subscribers because they already pay up to 5 percent in so-called franchise fees. Cities and towns have traditionally charged cable companies the fees to compensate a community for stringing wires and digging up roads to provide their service. Satellite companies have been spared the fees both because they came into existence after the fees were created and because their service does not rely on public infrastructure. (AP)

I hope John Quinn's constituents vote him out.

Refugees or Evacuees?

2005-09-08T10:54:00.000-04:00

The Brian Lehrer show on New York City's NPR affiliate has two guests who are debating the merits of using the word "refugee" or "evacuee" for those seeking shelter away from New Orleans. One of the guests is arguing that refugee is a word that carries negative connotations because it is typically used to describe non-white people suffering in third world countries. The other guests thinks both words are perfectly appropriate. I am wondering how much history we have forgotten. The French, Poles and others were described as refugees when they fled fighting in WWII ... it still seems to be a perfectly good (and unbiased word to me).

Watching the news the other day I did see a clip in which a black American said he was no damn refugee, he was an American. So perhaps the problem boils down to our self-image, Americans think of themselves as inherently different from others.

Rebuttal: Why are we ruled by these fools?

2005-08-25T10:45:00.000-04:00

For all of those who wonder "why are we ruled by these fools?" To paraphrase Peter Lynch, the best government to be ruled by is one that any fool can run, because someday a fool will run it.

Steroids, Sports and Hollywood

2005-08-04T16:08:00.000-04:00

Cafe Hayek weighs in on the Palmiero steroid scandal and sports. The post draws an interesting comparison to the use of plastic surgery in Hollywood but fails to ask an obvious question. How many Hollywood stars do you think take steroids? I would think that many of the male actors do so in order to maintain their looks. Ever wonder how Brad Pitt became so cut for Troy, or how Toby became Spidey?