windmills on the hill

a 15 minute recipe for bullshit

2008-06-18T12:19:00.002-04:00

When a usually good blogger produces a post that is unadulterated bullshit, my initial reaction is to suppose that someone has hijacked the blog in order to discredit the author. Unfortunately that does not seem to be the case when BCL attempts to refute Lawrence Solomon in under 15 minutes.

In his haste to win a minor skirmish in the Climate Wars, BCL has not only trips himself up, but has also served up a steaming pile of bullshit for his many loyal readers. Five more minutes of research would have consigned the post apparent to the discard pile, but when one senses an easy victory it's difficult to restrain the impulse to click the publish post button and yell victory.

Item 1. "soil scientist Cliff Ollier"

The tactic here is to reduce the subject's scientific credentials in order to portray him as unqualified. But as noted here the soil scientist is actually much more than just that;

Cliff Ollier, DSc., is Emeritus Professor and Research Fellow at
the University of Western Australia. He was formerly at A.N.U., U.N.E., Canberra
University, University of Papua New Guinea, and University of Melbourne . He has
worked all over the world as a geologist, geomorphologist and soil scientist. He
is the author of about ten books, several translated into foreign editions, and
over 300 publications.

The study of glaciers falls within the field of geology. By omitting Dr Ollier's full qualifications, BCL has rendered unto his readers a caricature for their amusement.

Item 2. "Here's Mr. Ollier describing what's impossible"

BCL goes on to selectively quote from the Solomon article the following;

The scenarios [of rapid melting]...stem from models divorced from the real
world. They rely on imaginary glaciers and ice sheets -- not on the actual
formations that exist in Greenland and Antarctica -- and demonstrate no
understanding of how glaciers flow.[...]
Ice sheets do not melt from the surface down -- only at the edges,' Prof.
Ollier explains. The modellers' mechanism that has 'meltwater lakes on the
surface finding their way down through cracks in the ice and lubricating the
bottom of the glacier is not compatible with accumulation of undisturbed snow
layers.'"

What he omits is of vital importance to understanding Dr Ollier's objection to the models in question.

the models rely "on the concept of an ice sheet sliding down an inclined plane
on a base lubricated by meltwater, which is itself increasing because of global
warming," Prof. Ollier explains. "In reality, the Greenland and Antarctic ice
sheets occupy deep basins, and cannot slide down a plane."

What he has done is set up a strawman for the coming refutation. It is not Dr Ollier's position that meltwater lakes don't leak out through cracks in the ice, it's that because the ice sheets are not on an inclined plane, they cannot slide down into the ocean lubricated by the meltwater.

Item 3. "And here's an account by real glaciologists of the impossible happening just this April"

The article cited can be read here. It's not long but it does contain some interesting information which is relevant to Dr Ollier's argument. That's where an extra 5 minutes of research would have proved useful. BCL only quotes one small part in order to beat the stuffing out of the strawman he constructed.

A report in today's Science describes how researchers recorded the drainage of
one such lake in Greenland. The lake was roughly 5.6 km2, but drained completely
in less than an hour and a half. The lake's contents rapidly made their way down
to the bottom of the ice sheet, 980 m below the surface. During this period, the
average drainage rate was 8700 m3/s. For reference, the average flow rate for
Niagara Falls is only 5700 m3/s.

Well, there's more and it tends to support Dr Ollier's argument rather than refute it. While the team noted movement in the ice sheet after the lake drained,

The study found that, while the water lubricating the base of the ice sheet
caused seasonal speedups of its motion on the order of 50 to 100 percent, the
speedup of outlet glaciers, where the ice sheet drains into the ocean, was only
about 15 percent. While other factors are causing outlet glaciers to speed up,
lubrication of the base doesn't seem to be the main cause.

They also found that the phenomena is quite common. Which poses the question that if this phenomena is common and has been occurring on for many years, why has there been no significant melting of the ice sheets? Could it be that the models are wrong just as Dr Ollier has pointed out?

"They can't touch the Senate...we're safe (nyaa, nyaa)"

2008-02-07T19:03:00.000-05:00

Liberal Senator Sharon Carstairs reveals why the Senate needs to be reformed (at 31:58).

Tough TIFF

2007-09-13T18:22:00.000-04:00

I'm not really much of a film buff so I rarely get around to seeing any of the films at TIFF. But I do read about them.

So here is this film called Reservation Road which has inspired some political musings by the director and members of the cast (Mark Ruffalo, Joaquin Phoenix, Jennifer Connelly and Mira Sorvino).

Ruffalo and Phoenix came armed with bright orange plastic bracelets that Ruffalo
said were symbolic to opposition of war in Iraq and urged everyone to visit www.theworldcan'twaittodriveoutthebushregime.com

Don't these people read my blog?! Don't they realize that Maoists fashion statements are just soooo yesteryear?

Congratulations

2007-06-18T22:46:00.001-04:00

Today my little sister Jennifer was called to the Bar. To say I'm proud would be a bit understatement.

Well done Jenn.

Not in the news

2007-04-26T20:15:00.000-04:00

A story about Afghanistan that wasn't carried by the press. With appropriate commentary of course;

Breaking faith with those who count upon our assistance and protection - not to
mention those who have laid down their lives for Canada and Afghanistan - is not
a "Canadian value." It would be positively cruel to abandon the Afghan people
when they've already started down the road to freedom and prosperity as these
runners have in Kandahar.

I too concur.

A night with the Stooges

2007-04-05T19:20:00.000-04:00

The Stooges D.C. concert will be broadcast at midnight tonight on NPR.

on the other hand

2007-03-10T15:17:00.001-05:00

Sometimes I have trouble choosing between the real thing

2007-03-10T15:16:00.001-05:00

and the trick

just saying

2007-03-08T16:21:00.000-05:00

I'd rather listen to the real Rolling Stones than the faux Beatles.

Getting in touch with your inner stupidity

2007-02-26T19:40:00.000-05:00

The essence of being a Stooge.

(ht. Keith)

The Fly to sing

2007-02-18T23:45:00.000-05:00

David Cronenberg is going to be transforming his film The Fly into an opera with the help of composer Howard Shore and writer/librettist David Henry Hwang. This is a film I found compelling and it just might do well as an opera. Then again it just might flop. Opera is a complex art form and getting all of the elements to work together is a daunting task.

The Fly" will be an "unprecedented addition to the operatic repertoire. Any
commission of an opera is a gamble, as has been proven throughout music
history," Domingo added. "There is no scientific formula for commissioning, only
one's instinct when one listens to a composer's already existing works."

The two companies involved are the Los Angeles Opera and the Theatre du Chatelet in Paris with the debut scheduled for Paris on July 1 2008 and Los Angeles in Sept 2008. According to the Globe and Mail, Cronenberg first approched the COC

But COC general director Richard Bradshaw said in an interview yesterday that
after discussions with the duo in the fall of 2005, he begged off the project
and told them: “Go to Domingo.”
“Basically, I said, ‘Sounds terrific' –
Howard showed me some of the music for the idea of what he wanted to do – ‘but
the only thing is, guys, is that I'm not even in your league for commissioning
fees.'
David Cronenberg and I have talked for a bit about doing something,”
Mr. Bradshaw noted, “but the main thing is, I said, ‘Go to L.A.; go to Domingo.'
Which they did.”

Although there might be a COC production in the summer of 2009 eight performances a week seems a bit much.

More, here, here and here.

Los Angeles Opera press release.

The Fly Opera website

The conspiratorial mind

2007-02-17T17:34:00.000-05:00

Take the test.

26-50
Your responses indicate that you have a medium level of belief in
conspiracy theories. You may well be quite trusting of your close friends,
partners, those you work with and others but sometimes cannot be sure of all of
them all of the time. You may also feel that your voice in terms of wider
political decisions is rarely heard or acted upon, perhaps because government
and big business is more concerned with their own interests than with those of
the average person.

Six down three to go

2007-02-17T00:43:00.000-05:00

We are two thirds of the way through our run of Faust and although the audiences are appreciative the critics haven't been impressed. Some of them could spend some time reading the program notes first before getting all distressed about the staging.

Wednesday's performance was notable for a sudden change of conductors after intermission. It seems the TSO had scheduled a program of Debussy/Stravinsky that same evening to be conducted by Valery Gergiev. But Gergiev was delayed because of weather. Because he is familiar with the Debussy pieces, our conductor for Faust, Yannick Nézet-Séguin became the replacement for Gergiev in the second half of that program. He also just happens to be replacing Gergiev as music director for the Rotterdam Philharmonic later this year. All at the ripe old age of 31.

His replacement for the second half was the COC's assistant conductor Steven Philcox who prefers a noticeably uptempo pace. Making my brief moment onstage even shorter. The scene I'm referring to is shown here. All that's visible of me is the upper left portion of my head and legs. I'm one of the four soldiers carrying Wagner (Peter McGillivray). Unfortunately there are no pictures of the Kermese scene available so you'll have make do with what I have.

My Comedia costume

The view from the mask

My battered visage

Excitement

2006-12-29T18:21:00.000-05:00

I confess to experiencing a giddy feeling knowing that the Butcher of Baghdad is apparently mere hours away from execution. Although I oppose the death penalty I also acknowledge that a more deserving person is hard to find.

Let him swing.

Reaching for a record

2006-12-05T20:32:00.000-05:00

Warren Hill is the student who stumbled across a one of a kind acetate of an early version of the Velvet Underground and Nico at a yard sale in New York City. For a measly $0.75. Now he's auctioning it on ebay, where the current bid is US $126,204.00.

Which must be some kind of record, eh?

Scary

2006-11-08T01:05:00.000-05:00

I haven't had a chance to read the Vanity Fair article that is stirring up the neoconservatives. However I noticed the photo of Richard Perle and it floored me because I'd seen a similar one before. This is the most unfortunate choice of poses by a man who already had a serious image problem.

Here's the photo of Perle,

Compare it to a photo of Joseph Goebbles taken in 1933 by Alfred 'Eisie' Eisenstaedt.

Scares the bejeezes out me.

Siegfried group photo

2006-10-20T17:28:00.000-04:00

*Note: the socks did not make it to the stage

The end of the Cycle

2006-10-03T20:11:00.000-04:00

The Ring Cycle ended on Sunday evening with a full company bow. At least 300 people crowded on stage to mark the end of a truly amazing event. I'm fortunate to have been a part of it.

My side project came almost to completion. I filled the program book with at least 250 autographs of those who took part. All of the cast signed, minus a few understudies, and 94 of the orchestra (out of 104 or 106 depending who you ask). Plus 3 of the directors, all of the stage managers and most of the costume and make-up crews. All I really missed were the choreographers and lighting designers. And Tim Albery.

The elephant and castle

2006-09-25T01:26:00.000-04:00

I'm currently reading Robert Massie's excellent biography Peter the Great: His life and world. One essential feature of a good biographer is the ability to interest the reader in more than just the subject of the book. Massie has this talent in abundance as he consistently enlivens the story of Peter's reign by giving colourful descriptions of the personalities who interacted with Peter throughout the period.

One such character is the rather unremarkable person of king George I of England (king from 1714-1727). King George is mentioned in Peter's story because he played a complicated role in the final years of the Great Northern War, using his position as king of England to further the interests of his native state of Hannover. His machinations did not work out quite as well as he had hoped.

But that main point is really beside the point as far as this post is concerned. As Massie briefly describes the character of king George something quite interesting pops out of the page. It seems that George did not like the English (who reciprocated in kind) and tried to spend as little time in England as possible. On those occasions when he had to be in London, he invariably brought along his two favourite mistresses which produced a great deal of mirth from Londoners. Because one was tall, skinny and ugly and the other was short, fat and ugly the pair were jokingly refered to as the elephant and castle.

Now there is an area in London that is called The Elephant and Castle possibly named after a pub first established around 1760 but destroyed by German bombs in 1942 (cannot possibly have been a V2), although there is no real concensus on the origins of the phrase. The Cutler's Company guild seems to be the first real mention of it followed by its use on guinea coins including some struck during the George I era. Its use as a joke however, seems to have been forgotten. Too bad.

Now if I could only learn to sing

2006-09-23T13:31:00.000-04:00

Which Wagner Opera Do You Belong In?

Der Ring des Nibelungen

Your world is a heroic drama of how the mythic struggle
between Power and Love can find peace
only in self-abnegation.
(Whew!)
Take this quiz!

Quizilla |
Join

| Make A Quiz | More Quizzes | Grab Code

Ht: Bookworm

First Run

2006-09-18T15:26:00.000-04:00

Yesterday's performance of Gotterdammerung completed the first ever run of Wagner's Ring Cycle. The performances have been very well received, although there was some dissatisfaction with the creative teams for Die Walkure and Gotterdammerung, it was generally overwhelmed by the applause. There's always going to be someone who complains.

The Pavlo Hunka drama resolved itself in a way that surprised me. Since I was not involved in Rheingold, I wasn't close enough to events to really get a clear picture. Either he took himself out or he was fired; no one really knows for certain. His departure at the last minute left a void in the cast that was ably filled by John Fanning in Rheingold and Peteris Eglitis subsequently.

However there is speculation and rumour that Peteris will be replaced for the next two runs of the Cycle. 'Cause we need more drama, goddammerint!!!

Der walk-off is das rumour

2006-09-11T16:17:00.000-04:00

Writing in yesterday's Star, classical music columnist John Terauds reports on rumours of Pavlo Hunka's 'indisposition'.

But before I plunge into the rumour mill let me correct a couple of inaccuracies in the article. Pavlo did not sing the part of Hunding in Die Walkure(the COC website says otherwise but that appears to be an error), Phillip Ens has been singing the part throughout rehearsals and did so during Wednesday's dress (it would be pretty difficult for the same singer to do both roles since Wotan kills Hunding). Nor did Pavlo walk-off at the dress rehearsal. He finished ActII but did not return for ActIII. So Peteris Eglitis stepped into the role and returned as the Wanderer in Friday's Siegfried dress. He played the part in the previous runs of both productions as did Pavlo.

I haven't actually seen or heard much of Pavlo during rehearsals. Wotan does not appear in ActI of Die Walkure and most of our tech rehearsals for Siegfried have not included the singers. Its only been during dress rehearsals that we have all been on stage together regularly. And it was during one of the rehearsals for Die Walkure when Pavlo faltered in ActII and during ActIII he only acted the part, the singing was done from offstage.

What exactly happened last Wednesday is purely conjecture. An indisposition said the announcer. Which really covers quite a few possibilities. But quitting altogether? I doubt it.

What's so funny (part 4)

2006-09-08T00:57:00.000-04:00

Restating the obvious

Overheard on the Antiques Roadshow

Appraiser: This is a fine and unique piece which at auction I would expect would go for between $6,000 to $8,000.

Person: Wow, I didn't know that.

Tagged!

2006-09-01T00:39:00.000-04:00

Via Robert.

1. One book that changed your life-Don Quixote

2. One book that you've read more than once-Don Quixote

3. One book that you'd want on a desert island-Don Quixote

4. One book that made you laugh-Don Quixote

5. One book that made you cry-Don Quixote

6. One book you wish you had written-Dr Faustus

7. One book you wish had never been written-The Da Vinci Code

8. One book you're currently reading-Several books on Wagner and the Ring Cycle.

9. One book you have been meaning to read-Ulysses

10. Five people to tag-Keith, Don Quixote, Johann, InstaPunk and Christopher Edey.

@#$!%*&!!!

2006-08-13T16:50:00.000-04:00

Its been a frustrating couple of weeks. First I missed the Mission of Burma show becuase I mixed up the date of the show, then I missed the Sonic Youth show because for the first time in recent memory they decided to finish up before 11pm. I suppose I could have skipped the Siegfried rehersal, but my previous experiences with Sonic youth concerts suggested they would not go on stage before 11pm. And now the bad luck continues with my computer crashing.