Sportszilla and the Jabber Jocks

The End, and a New Beginning

2006-09-04T12:18:00.000-04:00

Today marks the final day of Sportszilla, at least on Blogger. Starting tomorrow, we're moving to a brand new website, www.sportszillablog.com, on a new server and with new content managing software. It will rpovide for a smoother, more enjoyable experience and will allow us to do a whole bunch of new and exciting things. For the time being, this site will serve as the archive of past Sportszilla goodness, but no new content will be published here.

Tomorrow we'll launch the new site with our NFL previews, and move on from there. Please join us in the future...and the future is now!

Below is a press release about the new site:

My name is Zachary Geballe, as some of you may know. As others of you may know, I run a sports weblog (blog) called Sportszilla and the Jabber Jocks. What I doubt any of you know is that Tuesday, September 5th, marks a whole new era for Sportszilla, and for me.

The launch of our new site, which can be found at www.sportszillablog.com, will coincide with our extensive NFL previews. From there, we’ll still be running the same great content that perhaps attracted you to Sportszilla in the first place.

I founded Sportszilla in November of 2004, which means we’re creeping up on a two-year anniversary. In my first post ever, I said “So, here’s my attempt at encapsulating the world of sports, at least from my point of view.” Yes, I know, a typically grandiose statement to make, but one that I still think holds true. From the beginning, I saw Sportszilla as an antidote, or at least an alternative, to sites like ESPN.com and the other lumbering behemoths of online sports writing. Of course, when I did this, there were few other places on could turn for regular, high-quality sportswriting. Today, nearly two years later, the Internet is littered with sports blogs, some good, some bad, and some that only lasted four posts.

Over the last 21 months, I’ve been fortunate enough to be able to add five excellent writers to the Sportszilla team, all of whom I’m also fortunate enough to call my friends. Ben Valentine, David Arnott, Bryan Koch, Imtiaz (T-Bone) Mussa, and John Schmeelk have provided excellent insight, analysis, and fun (plus a lot of soccer coverage from T-Bone) to the site. Sportszilla would never have become what it is today without all their hard work.

As we get ready to usher in the new era, a few things need to be said. The goal of Sportszilla was, is, and always will be to provide top-notch sports writing free of the typical clichés and inanities that plague newspapers and web sites. We have the luxury of being outside the corporate structure, so we can say what we truly think without fear of advertiser reprisal or loss of access. We’re also committed to helping grow the sports blogging community. I read about a dozen blogs on a daily basis and have visited hundreds more from time to time: long gone are the days when a few media outlets horded information and analysis, parceling it out in meager and unreadable doses; we can now function as sports fans without ever needing to subscribe to ESPN Insider or deal with some of the knuckleheads who write for other major websites.

So to those of you who are my friends and family, I invite you to check out the new site, which once again can be found at www.sportszillablog.com. For those of you who are in the sports blogging world, I too invite you to visit the new site (often), and more than that to link to it (if you so choose). One of the great things about the community of sports bloggers is that there’s a great sense of camaraderie, not competition, surrounding it.

Please feel free to contact me with any questions, comments, concerns, or fantasy football tips (my draft is tonight).

Assault on .500: Double Your Fun

2006-09-04T02:56:00.000-04:00

And the Yankees and Red Sox thought they had it tough.

Between Saturday and Sunday, the Philadelphia Phillies and Atlanta Braves played four games courtesy of a back to back double dip. Thankfully for the two teams they happened in September, where extra arms were available. Both days the teams split.

Meanwhile the story continues to be Ryan Howard who slugged three home runs today in game one, bringing his total up to 52 on the year. However you can read about baseball’s rising star anywhere nowadays. But this is one of the few places on the internet where you also get the flip side.

And that flip side went 1-6 with 2 walks and two runs scored in the series. With the back to back double headers, Phillies manager Charlie Manuel elected to give Jose Hernandez a pair of starts at 3B in the night caps. However Nunez found his way into the Saturday one anyway, going 0-1. Overall in 246 ABs (269 PA) this brings his splits to:

.199/.269/.256/.525

Since Jose Hernandez did play and the rosters have expanded, it’s certainly possible Nunez begins to lose ABs. On the other hand Hernandez would have to distinguish himself and he seems rather unlikely to do that considering he’s got a 696 OPS to this point. Nunez has also show a decent ability to walk which might be a reason he’s still around. Thus, the Nunez show probably will continue, as he strives towards the .500 OPS mark.

To be fair, one of the big reasons Nunez is likely still in the lineup has to do with Ryan Howard’s emergence. Many times managers will believe they can carry a below average regular when they have an MVP candidate tearing the cover off the ball higher in the lineup. It may not be the right rationale, but you see it frequently around baseball. So thanks to Howard and to some extent Chase Utley, Nunez gets to post an .525 OPS and still play every day.

Finally in a somewhat unrelated note, Howard no doubt deserves MVP consideration at this point. But in a story that should be getting a far more press than it has, take a look at the wild card standings as baseball hits Labor Day:

Padres 70-66 __

Phillies 69-68 1.5 GB

Marlins 68-68 2

Reds 68-69 2.5

Giants 68-69 2.5

Astros 67-70 3.5

That’s right… the Florida Marlins, team of the 14 million dollar payroll, is just two games back of the wild card. And so while Howard (1.043) should be getting MVP press, Miguel Cabrera (1.002 OPS) should be getting that and then some. Remember, Cabrera plays 3B for a team that has arguably the best pitcher’s park in baseball. And if that team makes the post season this year, there’s no question Cabrera, clearly the best offensive weapon in a mediocre lineup, deserves the award.

Heck he might deserve some consideration if they miss it by a couple of games.

College Madness: The Preseason Top 10

2006-09-01T03:37:00.000-04:00

Strike up the marching band because it’s that time of year again. College football has returned.

The season opened up Thursday, though no one of real note was in action. The real fun begins this weekend culminating in a game which could go a long way to deciding a conference; Florida State v. Miami on Labor Day night. As usual we can expect plenty of twists, turns and plenty of BCS controversy by the last week in October. And while most college football top tens are useless at this point in the season since most are just going off scouting reports, last year’s team and school rep, I decided to honor the start of the 2006 campaign with a top 10 of my own.

However, I didn’t rank the teams on who I thought was the best. Instead I ranked them based on where I thought they’d finish. Some might quibble with for example, where I put the West Virginia Mountaineers. However their schedule is a joke and as a result, they shouldn’t lose any more than one game. If you go undefeated you’ve got a shot at the National Title game.

In any case here’s my top 10. Feel free to chastise me all you like.

#1- Ohio State: I hate the Buckeyes, but I love QB Troy Smith as a college player. He destroyed a Notre Dame defense even more than Vince Young lit up USC. If Tressel sticks with him, they’re going to be hard to beat. The defense has questions after losing players like LBs AJ Hawk and Bobby Carpenter to the draft but Ohio State is never short of replacements. They might struggle early, but figure the offense does enough to win them games. It almost did last year. Remember if Smith is on the field for that whole game against Texas, it’s Ohio State in Pasadena, not the Longhorns.

#2- Miami: This year people are starting them off low; some even think that Florida State is better. Don’t buy into the hype. The Canes were young last year and had some growing up to do. A tough schedule is an issue, circle Florida State and at Louisville as season making games, but last year this team had the talent to beat anyone on any given Saturday, including USC or Texas. This year they’ll bring it all together. Or Larry Coker will have to find himself a new job.

#3- West Virginia: HB Steve Slaton gets much of the talk but QB Pat White has all the makings of a scary college QB; if he can learn to throw the ball efficiently. With a joke schedule, all the Mountaineers have to do is beat Louisville. Not as easy as it sounds though; Louisville will be good and the game is in their place. Of course, they beat a heavily favored Georgia, in the Georgia Dome so they can win on the road.

#4- Texas: They have loads of talent as usual, but people need to realize how important Vince Young was last year. The guy put up 400 yards against the top ranked team in the national championship game. That’s 400 yards by himself! There’s no way Texas can replace that type of player in one season. They’ll be helped by a weak Big 12, but against a top team, they’re toast.

#5-LSU: I never liked the SEC, but over the last two years I’ve had to admit it’s the best conference without question in college football. While most of the others run one or two deep tops, there at least four teams in the SEC that can beat you on any given day. LSU had to overcome a great deal of difficulty last year after first losing their coach to the NFL and then Hurricane Katrina. Despite that, they went 11-2. This year they’ll have to make without players like HB Joseph Addai, who has left for the NFL but like many top programs, that just opens up spots for talented underclassmen (Justin Vincent?). QB JaMarcus Russell will likely be the key to their offense. They probably have the most talent in the SEC. But in with their grueling in conference schedule, they’ll need every bit of it.

#6-USC: Remember when the Trojans lost Carson Palmer to the NFL a few years back? People wondered how they’d manage. Well… they did… somehow. Not saying that John David Booty will be the next great USC QB, but everyone always talks about how deep they are at the position. It’s impossible to replace Reggie Bush and LenDale White but the Trojans still have their talented WR core, so they can always let it fly early on while finding their feature back. Plus they don’t figure to face much of a challenge until an October date with Arizona State and that’s at home. Their opener against Arkansas on the road might be dicey, but one figures the talent will win out there. Their losses on the O-Line will hurt them in a big spot down the road, possibly in a bowl game. But they should be in the top ten the whole year.

#7- Notre Dame: The beginning of their schedule is a nightmare; the end a joke. If they can get through only losing one of their first four, they’ll be fine. Watch out for that last game at USC… those young players will be veterans by the time that game rolls around. Brady Quinn has to show he can do it against a real team before I consider him Heisman quality. Where was he against the Buckeyes in the Fiesta Bowl? Oh yeah and that defense still can’t stop anyone good.

#8- Louisville: It’s all about QB Brian Brohm. This is a solid team that can win the Big East and make a BCS bowl if Brohm is over his knee injury from last year. He’s supposedly ahead of schedule, which is a good sign for the Cardinals. Their season comes down to two games; both at home; Miami and West Virginia. Also they must be careful with the Pittsburgh Panthers late in the season, as they are on the road for that one. And with the Panthers’ easy schedule, they figure to be in the hunt for a Big East title.

#9- Auburn: The SEC strikes again. The Tigers lost three significant players off their offense in 2005. In a tough SEC that was going to doom them. This year they can make a run, though the conference is the reason why they probably aren’t a legit national title contender. Let’s face it, it’s better to play one tough opponent and lose none than play four and lose two.

#10- Oregon Ducks: They went 10-2 last year and were snubbed from the BCS game. This year the Pac-10 is very much up for grabs with the USC losses and the Ducks should be considered very much in the mix. After losing last year’s #1 QB Kellen Clemens to injury, they went undefeated until a late fourth quarter loss to Oklahoma in the Holliday Bowl, so one figures their signal calling position should be secure. It could well repeat as a two QB rotation like last year, but again, it did work out well. The defense is a concern, but it wasn’t exactly good last year either and the team was 10-2. They figure to climb the polls slowly, as this school never gets any respect.

So as you might guess, I’m a believer in an Ohio State/Miami Fiesta Bowl; aka the rematch of 2002. Of course that is too perfect, so it’ll probably end up being Ohio State and Florida, two teams I absolutely can’t stand.

Oh well, we’ll see. As college football fans well know, in this short 11-12 game season, anything can happen.

And it probably will.

Assault on .500: Done Swatting the Nats

2006-09-01T02:30:00.000-04:00

If the Philadelphia Phillies played the Washington Nationals every night, Abraham Nunez would be an all star.

Okay maybe not an all star, but a pretty solid contributor.

Thursday Nunez went 2 for 5 with a run scored, while overall posting a 5 for 13 in this series with an RBI, intentional walk and a whopping five runs scored! As I wrote a few days back, Nunez just owns Washington. Unfortunately for him, the Phillies don’t see the Nats again until the last week of September. Thus, he can’t expect a nice stat boost from their lousy rotation anytime soon.

So as it stands now, his splits through 261 plate appearances are:

.200/.266/.258/.524.

He is now tied OPS wise with Homer Bush’s 2000 after starting the series at .508. I’d say he had a pretty solid three days.

So we have a dead heat as we head into the final month of baseball. Will he pull a Cristian Guzman and post an .850 OPS the rest of the way? (No joke, that’s what Guzman hit the final month of 2005) Or will he continue his way towards history?

Up next, four games at Citizen’s Bank with the Braves. This of course might actually be good for Nunez, since these aren’t your daddy’s Braves. They can score a ton, but can’t pitch to save their lives. (Which is why their playoff chances are essentially dead) For the record, Nunez has an of OPS of .551 in 17 ABs this year, so a greater improvement might be on the way. Bush’s lousy 2000 might be safe.

Finally, I direct you to a post done by Chris over at the blog “I’ve Made a Huge Tiny Mistake,” where he writes a Philly fan’s reaction to Nunez being intentionally walked Wednesday night. It’s definitely a good read, as his recap of that eighth inning and the ninth shows why it was in fact, a horrible decision. (Contrary to what I wrote yesterday, but I must have been flush with his three hit performance the night before) So check it out.

Until tomorrow, keep it up Abraham… or not.

Assault on .500: Quick Nightly Update

2006-08-31T03:04:00.000-04:00

Some random baseball thoughts today, but of course we start with the watch.

I won’t spend too much time on this, since while I think it is interesting to follow, it can get tiring very quickly. Tonight Abraham Nunez went 0-3 with an RBI and intentional walk. The Nats decided they’d rather face pitcher Cole Hamels than Nunez. For the record, Hamels has splits of .121/.250/.121/.371. That means that Hamels reached base just .014 percent less than Nunez in his plate appearances this year! (He’s walked six times and struck out 18, that’s pretty good for a pitcher). But since Hamels hasn’t gotten anything other than a single to this point, it was the right move.

Overall that saved his night from being a complete disaster OBP wise, though that of course does nothing for his slugging.

So to recap, Nunez now at official 235 ABs (256 overall),and has a line of:

.196/.264/.255/.519

To be the worst player of the decade, he’ll need to top Homer Bush’s 2000 splits of:

.215/.271/.253/.524

Keep it here as the watch continues.

Other baseball notes:

-I live in NY, so I don’t read the Boston papers. But I gather it’s only a matter of time before some idiot sportswriter starts screaming “curses” again with this latest string of Red Sox injuries. Manny goes down to leg problems, Ortiz has to be hospitalized twice in two weeks, Jason Varitek, Trot Nixon and Willy Mo Pena are out, their rotation is permanently D/L’d and now young pitcher Jon Lester is undergoing numerous medical tests, including some for cancer. Oh and the Red Sox are toast in the American League playoff race and it’s not even September 1st.

Just a passing mention on Ortiz. It’s ironic how his hospitalization a few weeks back caused by “stress” was not made more of. Lord knows if Alex Rodriguez had undergone the same situation, everyone in baseball would be snickering at the poor guy. With Big Papi, nobody says a word, because he’s so “clutch.”

This isn’t meant an insult; I'm just making a point. What do you think would happen if A-Rod was hospitalized because of “stress?”

-Mark Mulder is likely done for the year after tests revealed “fraying” at in his rotator cuff. Not to be cruel, but this is a blessing for the Cardinals. Mulder had been completely ineffective since his return from the DL both in the majors AND minors. Anthony Reyes hasn’t been great so far, but he’s been a major league pitcher. It may be awhile before Mulder re-enters that category considering the problems he’s dealt with for three years.

By the way, think the Cardinals would love to have Dan Haren and Kiko Calero back right about now?

-I’ll get around to a closer look soon enough, but the NL MVP race has become extremely interesting. Albert Pujols has seen his OPS lead on Carlos Beltran shrunk down to .065 and since Beltran plays a very good centerfield, he now has a very legitimate case for the award if the season ended today. Also throwing their hats into the race are Ryan Howard and Miguel Cabrera, who’s actually been in it the whole time but no one’s noticed. Lance Berkman quietly is second in the NL in OPS. Handicapping the race quickly:

Pujols: Best hitter in the league. But plays first.

Beltran: Not Pujols OPS but at a pitcher’s park, great centerfielder.

Berkman: Great hitter, but plays plenty of first. That hurts his value.

Howard: Plays the same position as Pujols. Also plays in Citizen’s Bank.

Cabrera: Plays in the best pitcher’s park, plays third, team’s out of it.

As I said, I’ll get a bit more in depth soon enough. But it should be an interesting September for those baseball fans who care about the hardware handed out at the end of each season.

The Assault on .500: The Worst Hitters of the Last Six Years

2006-08-30T01:05:00.000-04:00

Tuesday night Abraham Nunez must have partied like the Phillies had just won game seven of the World Series.

The struggling third baseman was back in the starting lineup for the Phillies tonight even though his OPS was rapidly approaching the wrong side of .500. Well, he rewarded his manager’s confidence with three hits and two runs scored in five at bats. That takes his splits all the way up to:
.198/.264/.259/.523.

With just three hits in one game, all singles, he raised his OPS fifteen points from .508. What a night.

As a side note, you’d probably guess that it would have been Nunez first three hit night of the season right? Nope. It was his third. He did it at the end of April against the team he first came up with, the Pittsburgh Pirates, and a little over two weeks ago, this time against the Washington Nationals. Oh and who were the Phillies playing tonight?

The Washington Nationals.

In fact heading into tonight’s game, he had a .733 OPS against the Nats this season. With some quick math here, I calculate his splits against them are: .280/.379/.480/.859. That’s eight hundred and fifty nine in 25 ABs this year.

Ladies and gentlemen, Abraham Nunez owns the Nationals.

If baseball commissioner Bud Selig still wanted to contract this team, he probably could give no better reason than the one right there.

In any case, with his robust performance tonight, Nunez has now fallen to neck and neck in the race to be the worst player in baseball so far this decade. Since 2000, the lowest OPS a player with 300 plate appearances has put up is .524, done by Homer Bush in the year 2000. Bush was a Yankee prospect who found his way to Toronto in the Roger Clemens trade and never panned out. I still remember friends of mine in high school telling he how good he was. Little did I know back then that he would currently hold the title of “worst season of the decade.”

Now there’s a slight caveat with that; I originally said I was going to do 250 plate appearances, since Nunez is actually at that point now. The leader for that is Jermaine Dye, who managed an astronomically low .514 OPS in 221 ABs in 2003. But the problem is 221 seems a bit low. Consider that if Nunez was cut tomorrow, that would mean he would qualify despite starting for just one month. I feel as though that would cheapen what this crop of players has actually accomplished, so we’ll keep it to 300 plate appearances.

Without further adieu, excluding Nunez, the top ten worst players OPS wise since 2000:

10. 2003- Tony Womack: D-Backs/Cubs/Rockies, SS, 349 AB .226/.251/.307/.558

9. 2005- Tony Womack: Yankees: 2B/CF, 329 AB, .249/.276/.280/.556

8. 2002- Caesar Izturis: Dodgers, SS, 439 AB, .232/.253/.303/.556

7.2003- Brandon Phillips: Indians, 2B, 370 AB, .208/.242/.311/.553

6. 2002- Chris Truby: Tigers, 3B, 382 AB, .215/.238/.314/.552

5. 2001- Jack Wilson: Pirates, SS, 390 AB, .223/.255/.295/.550

4. 2000- Alex Gonzalez: Marlins, SS, 385 AB, .200/.229/.319/.548

3. 2002- Ron Belliard: Brewers, 2B, 289 AB, .211/.257/.287/.544

2. 2002- Einer Diaz: Indians, C, 320 AB, .206/.258/.284/.542

1. 2000- Homer Bush: Blue Jays, 2B, 297 AB, .215/.271/.253/.524

Quite a cast of characters. Some interesting things about that list:

-Tony Womack appears twice which is amazing because both seasons happened on the wrong side of 30. And in both times, he was back in the majors the year following, with the Cardinals in 2004, and then the Reds and Cubs this season. As if these teams couldn’t take a hint. Because he makes it up here twice, Womack has a serious argument for being the worst player of the decade to this point.

-So Einer Diaz’s 2002 ranks as the second worst for any player this decade. The Indians got smart and dumped him that offseason to Texas along with Ryan Drese in a trade. Who did Texas give up for that black hole of talent?

Travis Hafner.

I might have to take my list of the worst trades of the last five years back. Hafner for a guy who was coming off a historically bad season equals a historically bad trade.

So take heart Phillies fans. If you can deal Nunez this offseason you might get a potential MVP back!

- Cristian Guzman’s 2005 didn’t make it… and didn’t come close. His .574 OPS is just way too good for the likes of these players.

-The Alex Gonzalez who ranks fourth is the one who plays in Boston, not the one who originally signed with the Phillies this year and then retired. So no, the Phillies did not have the chance to employ two of the worst players of the last six years in the same infield.

-Of the ten (well nine) players listed there, six… that’s two thirds, played in the big leagues this year. And it’s possible Diaz does when the rosters expand in September. Only Bush and Truby are guaranteed not to play this season. So Nunez will probably find himself back in the big leagues next year… and quite possibly for years to come.

-The Cubs get special notice because they not only acquired Womack during his miserable 2003 but brought him back this year after his miserable 2005, after he was already released by the Reds earlier in the season. They also have Izturis currently on roster after dealing Greg Maddux for him. He’s got a .570 OPS in 179 ABs this year with a .559 mark for the Cubbies since the trade. He’s improved mightily in those four years.

-The Indians also get some special props as well, since they employed three guys, Diaz, Belliard and Brandon Phillips during or after their awful seasons. But unlike the Cubs they get off the hook because they turned Diaz into Hafner.

-The only player on that list who was over 30 during their miserable seasons is Womack. That’s significant because it suggests the teams gave these guys longer leashes because they were expected to grow into their roles. Of course the truth is the only one who might have is Belliard, who had some 750+ OPS years mixed in. The rest all stunk, with some mediocrity thrown the way of Jack Wilson in Pittsburgh.

If Nunez manages does manage to finish the year with over 300 PA and a sub .550 OPS, he would become the oldest player this decade to do that. Quite an accomplishment, as most guys who fail at the plate so prolifically at the age of 30 or over end up getting DFA’d. Unless your name is Tony Womack of course.

So the road will not be easy for Nunez the rest of the way. He’ll need nights like this followed by five or six games of no hits or walks if he wants to make a serious run at Homer Bush’s 2000. If he just stinks overall, the Phillies will find someone who can play better, since he doesn’t have youth on his side as a defense.

Coincidently, the Phillies finish up the season at Florida. Why is that important?

If Nunez maintained his current OPS through 300 plate appearances (he now has 252) he would just beat out Bush’s 2000 by .001 of a point.

Now that’s what I call a close election.

Update: The Assault on .500

2006-08-29T01:16:00.000-04:00

Today was a big day for the Phillies. They had split the first two games with the Mets, and could have found themselves just a half game out of the wild card with a victory today. But they were going to need runs, as they were up against the NL’s most potent lineup with Jamie Moyer, who’s “ageless wonder” status only applies at Safeco Field. So what would that slugging third baseman Abraham Nunez contribute today?

0-3 with a BB.

Well at least he walked… right? His current line now stands at:

.189/.257/.251/.508- down from .511 on Saturday. (Rain out Sunday)

Creeping ever closer to .500. It would have dropped even further but Mets’ starter John Maine had to go mess things up by walking him with one out in the seventh inning and the Mets up 7-2. As punishment, Mets manager Willie Randolph immediately went out to the mound and yanked Maine from the game. A demotion might follow. (All kidding aside, Maine was at 108 pitches. It was the right move.)

But for those who want to see the “assault on .500” succeed for notoriety’s sake (or for comedic purposes), never fear. Nunez struck out to end the game.

As an anonymous reader points out, Nunez has actually played well, for his own standards anyway, over the last month. He actually had at .609 OPS in the month of August heading into a Monday’s game after a .572 month of July. August was the first full month he was a regular, so maybe there is a hope for him to be terrible rather than the absolute worst in baseball.

Up next the Phillies head to RFK, which has actually played favorable to hitters this year. With that awful Nats’ staff, Nunez might be able to get that OPS up a little more.

Coming up next time, in addition to seeing what Nunez has done for the night, we’ll also see how he stacks up against the worst OPS guys of the last five years with a minimum of 250 plate appearances.

So until next time, the watch continues.

The Watch

2006-08-28T03:38:00.000-04:00

Sometimes in sports a player gets near something momentous and people begin to take notice. Updates are streamed in nightly, your local news carries it even though the guy is across the country. Heck your own team’s broadcasters are mentioning it during scoreboard updates.

For example, you might remember such things from the home run races in baseball over the last ten years. Whenever Mark McGwire came to the plate, stations would either cut away to show his AB or tell you how it ended. His nightly line was posted at the top of every sports website. Or for a more recent example, see the hoopla over Chase Utley’s hit streak. (or currently, Willy Taveras’)

Well Sportszilla is getting into the action as well. But for the other end of the spectrum. Instead, we’ll be keep track of a foray into futility as we proudly present:

“The Abraham Nunez Watch: One Man’s Quest to Post an OPS Below .500 While Staying In the Starting Lineup.”

Recently, I’ve been blasting the fact Nunez has an OPS in the .500’s, which is not only miserable for a regular, but down right awful for a third baseman. And to top it off he plays at Citizen’s Bank Ballpark, an excellent place for hitters. When I first mentioned him, Nunez had an OPS at .535. The next time he came up it was at .530. And now where does the Phillies’ third baseman reside?

.192/.257/.254/.511

.511. Five hundred and freaking eleven. And that’s amazing for a few reasons:

Reason one: How the hell can a major league player post a number that low in 224 ABs? It’s actually very hard to do because the only way a player gets that many ABs with such awful splits is if he’s got tremendous upside. In other words an all star caliber player or top prospect on a lousy team. But if a guy has that much talent, then there’s no way he’ll play that badly.

Nunez is none of those, since he’s 30 and has never been good. And the Phillies are in playoff contention, just one game back of the wild card. More in this later.

Reason two: He’s walked 19 times this year. Why would anyone walk him… ever? The pitcher is pretty much as likely to hurt you.

Reason three: How is he still the every day third baseman for a team in playoff contention? Young players with his numbers would have been shipped down to the minors already and most probably would have been dumped at AA. But Nunez is 30, so since he really has no upside, a guy like him should be released. I mean there is almost no way the Phillies could start someone worse at third. In the thick of a playoff race, how can anyone justify him being placed out there?

Reason four: According to ESPN, Nunez is owned by 53.6% of NL only leagues compared to 0.0% in regular ones. Even more incredibly, that NL number increased by 16.8% in the last week.

This is why NL/AL only leagues aren’t any fun. Any league where over half the owners are compelled to own the worst regular in baseball is not a league worth being a part of.

So the questions are, can Nunez continue his assault on .500 and somehow manage to maintain his job? Keep it here for all the updates.

Hey home run races come around nowadays, what, once every five years? What Nunez is trying to accomplish… well that’s something that you just don’t see everyday.

Not even in Kansas City.

How Can You Pinch Hit for So Taguchi?

2006-08-25T03:33:00.000-04:00

How sweep it is.

If the Mets vs. Cardinals series at Shea Stadium this week was supposed to be a preview of things to come in the postseason, then the fans of the Amazins’ can sit back and let a broad smile form across their face. If this series showed anything, it showed the National League this:

The top of the class has room for one only.

Of course, regular season glory is worth nothing but the price of admission to the Show that is October baseball. What you do then is what defines a team and how it will be remembered. The three game sweep the Mets just completed over the St. Louis Cardinals sends a message, it makes a statement and yes, clearly illustrates how the upper echelon of NL Teams are divided. But it doesn’t give you entry to the World Series; it just increases the pressure on you to get there.

But that being said, we learned a bit about the Cardinals in this series, and for the finale of such an important regular season set of games, I felt I should go out to Shea. Or, I actually found someone who was willing to go. My high school buddy Patrick Lee is a pseudo Mets fan, one of those people who “love NY” and thus claim to pull for both teams. Needless to say, I’m always skeptical of that and my fears would prove valid early on.

After a quick stop in Flushing for some high quality Lucia’s Pizza, (right off the last stop on the 7 Train on Roosevelt Avenue, best pizza I’ve ever had, and Sportszilla endorsed!) we headed over to Shea. After parking by my grandmother’s apartment building on 113th street, since there’s no way anyone wants to pay 10 bucks for parking, Pat gets out and puts on…

A Yankees cap.

Now, anyone who reads me consistently knows I’m a Mets fan and have the reputation as the #1 Yankee hater in these parts. So you can imagine my dismay to see that the person I’m going with puts on their cap as I’m about to enter the holy house that is Shea Stadium. (Holy house is strong but it’s the only park I’ve ever known) Plus from my own experiences and those of others, I know Mets fans don’t like Yankee fans flaunting it in their house. Unfortunately, flaunt is Pat’s middle name.

Plus with my corn rows not in, I had a huge fro preventing my Mets hat from fitting on my head. Finally, I was wearing a navy colored shirt, making me look like the perfect accessory to a Yankees fan. Oh yes… it was going to be fun, I thought.

So with some dread, at least in my case, we walked on over to Shea in the midst of a rain storm. It had nearly abated by the time we got to the game, so it would only be a half hour delay until baseball. The classic pitching battle… Jason Marquis against Dave Williams. And by classic, I mean classically bad.

Well Marquis does have 13 wins. So what if he’s statistically the worst pitcher in the NL, right? It’s a shame Tom Glavine had to miss his start Tuesday, then the Mets could have thrown Steve Trachsel in this game! The worst two pitchers in the NL matched up in a battle for the NL lead in wins. But nope, Tommy G had to go and get a blood clot in his shoulder, forcing the Mets to move everyone up a day. So instead we get Dave Williams, who might be bad, but hasn’t been for as long as the aforementioned duo.

That had me thinking, what’s the worst pitcher and worst hitter I could see facing one another. The goal; create a horrific “Black Hole of Utter Suckage” which die hard baseball fans would grimace at upon seeing the match up, yet have to watch just to see who sucked less. Marquis was the obvious nominee for NL starting pitcher, and the regular who came to mind quickly was the Phillies’ Abraham Nunez of the .530 OPS (It's actually gotten worse since Tuesday!). Overall, it would probably be Nunez and Royals starter Scott Elarton, who did nothing but give up runs until a shoulder injury put him out for the season.

Nominees for the “Black Hole of Utter Suckage” are appreciated, and you can throw out any pitcher/batter combination, not just starters. (However no pitchers as hitters)

Meanwhile Pat’s Yankee hat didn’t exactly draw the ire of Mets fans as I had suspected it would. He showed it off to Yankee fans passing by, but that was about it. Guess the rain delay had weeded out the obnoxious blowhards, who probably don’t have the patience to sit one of those out.

Anyway there was a game after all, and it started amazingly enough without a run being scored in the 1st inning. You’d figure that was helped by the Cardinals batting So Taguchi in the two hole right? Well, he promptly doubled. The man I really came to see, Albert Pujols, smoked a ball off Williams to deep left that Pat and I both thought was long gone. But instead, Endy Chavez caught it at the edge of the warning track.

As a side note, one of the many that will be appearing in this, when I mentioned that I’ve heard many women think So Taguchi is good looking, Pat was shocked. His response; and this is completely verbatim:

“What the hell? He’s a 37 year old man who looks like a 15 year old girl.”

Back to the game. Dave Williams was your typical soft tossing lefty, with a video game-ish slow curve. Seriously; he was tossing it in a 64 mph. What was even weirder was that his fastball topped out at 87 and his change up frequently came in at 81. So there was no real difference between either pitch. Outside of the curve, he really had nothing. And yet the Cardinals top hitters struggled against him all night. Proves once again in one game anything is possible.

The Mets put the first two men on against Marquis, so I was figuring a four spot in the first was guaranteed. Then Carlos Beltran popped out and Carlos Delgado grounded into a double play, much to dismay of Pat’s fantasy team. But he said he’s downright abusing his league anyway. I’m not surprised… someone in his league just dealt Pujols and Mike Mussina for Chipper Jones and Bobby Jenks, two weeks after dealing Jason Giambi for Brad Lidge. That's horrid, I mean would you deal Jeremy Giambi for Lidge now... or two weeks ago? Still I could use some tips, my team is in second to last in the league me and the rest of the Sportszilla writers are in. To make matters more embarrassing, my co-owner and I are dropping like a stone. Unfortunately, none would take Lidge off our hands for Giambi. If it wasn’t for the fact Bryan’s team is falling even faster, we’d be guaranteed the number one pick next year.

However if you’d like tips on how to dominate a league, send your questions to John Schmeelk. He’s currently running away with ours.

In the second inning Shawn Green in his new #20 Mets’ jersey came to the plate with the fans chanting his name. It seems Lastings Milledge has made many enemies at Shea already this year. They’re probably just jealous he didn’t slap their hands.

Green smoked a ball, but Ron Belliard (who apparently thinks he’s “thugness incarnate”, just look at his pic) forgot he’s a miserable defensive second baseman and made a leaping grab. He flipped the ball back to Pujols to double up a stunned David Wright. Maybe it wouldn’t be the Mets night.

Then in the third, they remembered who was pitching.

Williams led off the inning by working a long at bat. I actually lost count of how many pitches Marquis threw to him; which is a very bad sign when the opposing pitcher is up. Williams was eventually called out on strikes, but things got a lot hotter for Marquis. After Jose Reyes singled again and then stole second, Paul LoDuca tripled him home with some help from Preston Wilson kicking the ball around in the corner like he was auditioning for US Soccer. Uh Preston, the World Cup was in June. Beltran and Delgado both walked which brought up Wright. The third baseman hit a deep fly to right, but Wilson caught it at the warning track. LoDuca scored to give the Mets a 2-0 lead. Finally Green endeared himself to Mets fans some more by singling home Beltran. 3-0 Mets.

Dave Williams then proceeded to hand the Cardinals two runs back in the fifth. After giving up a single to Aaron Miles, he gave up a long shot into the Cardinals bullpen to… wait for it… Gary Bennett. The Redbirds’ back up catcher was near the Mendoza line with one homer before that shot. It’s never easy is it?

Unless Jason Marquis is pitching.

This time, after a LoDuca infield single, Carlos Delgado proved his worth to Pat’s fantasy team and crushed a Marquis pitch past the Mets’ bullpen in rightfield. 450 feet was the estimated distance. The power is back. Whatever was affecting Delgado from May- July seems to be gone now and he’s smoking the ball again. If he’s on his game, the Mets are going to have the most formidable 3-5 in the NL.

We head to seventh, when the game was won/lost, depending on which team you’re talking about. After Aaron Miles singled again against Williams, Scott Spiezio, the most useless player in baseball last year, doubled. That put runners on second and third with one out. It also brought the soft tossing lefty’s night to an end as Willie Randolph went to Roberto Hernandez. Ron Belliard was up, So Taguchi was in the on deck circle and Pujols was in the hole. Lefty Pedro Feliciano was up in the pen, as Pat correctly pointed out, for Jim Edmonds and Chris Duncan, neither of whom were in the starting lineup. That had to be it, since the Cards didn’t have a lefty in the lineup.

Since I’m well aware of Tony LaRussa’s love affair with guys who shouldn’t be starting yet are, I responded with:

“HOW CAN YOU PINCH HIT FOR SO TAGUCHI???” (Yes, I mockingly yelled it)

Well Hernandez got Belliard on a foul pop out and thus denied him eventual entry into the Thug Mansion. That brought up the key spot in the game. That chap Albert was in the on deck circle as the potential go ahead run. He had seven RBI just two nights ago. You want someone who will keep the inning alive. You want your best up. Thus, Edmonds was getting his batting helmet right? Duncan had to be listening to his daddy about the ins and outs of Roberto Hernandez’s motion.

Nope. LaRussa apparently agrees the idea it is impossible to pinch hit for So Taguchi… a 37 year old defensive outfielder. Brilliant managing again Tony.

Hernandez got Taguchi on strikes. Pujols would lead off the next inning, a threat to give the Cardinals nothing but one run when they were down by three. And finally in a twist of ridiculous irony, what does LaRussa do?

He then immediately double switches Taguchi out of the game for Spezio!

You can’t make this stuff up. You just can’t.

I was all looking forward to making a lot of jokes about “Enter Sandman” when Billy Wagner would come into the game in the ninth, except it never happened. When the Mets scored a run in the 8th, it made it a four run game, so Randolph decided against using Wagner. Instead we got Guillermo Mota, who looks a lot like disgraced former Baseball Tonight analyst Harold Reynolds. At least I think he does.

Mota got the first two Cardinals out. That brought up Chris Duncan as the pinch hitter, a full two innings too late. Maybe Tony was hoping for a do-over or something. Well Mota struck him out to end it. To quote Matt Vasgersian in MLB ’06: The Show:

“St. Louis; Good Night.”

Up next come the Phillies, who just might knock the Cardinals out of the postseason if the Redbirds aren’t careful. The resurgent Phils are just 1.0 back of the Reds for the Wild Card and just 2.5 back of St. Louis should Cincinnati take the NL Central. Tony LaRussa better be careful, if he keeps handing games away by pitching an ineffective Mark Mulder and Jason Marquis along with putting up So Taguchi in big spots, the Cards might not gain admittance to the Show come October. Thankfully, the Mets look to be pretty much there, and that is half the battle.

And so, no pun intended, I leave you with this, the biggest thing I learned Thursday night:

“How can you pinch hit for So Taguchi?”

“You don’t, unless you’re actually trying to win a ball game.”

A Team of Cartoonish Proportions

2006-08-24T01:13:00.000-04:00

My all-time favorite Simpsons episode is Homer at the Bat, mostly because it combines two of my loves, baseball and the Simpsons. Oh, and Ken Griffey, Jr. is in it. Today, I came to a somewhat-painful realization. The 2006 baseball season may, for all intents and purposes, be over. Thanks to an ever-expanding payroll (and a set of rules which allow for unlimited spending), Brian Cashman has assembled the most fearsome lineup I've ever seen outside of the Springfield Nuclear Plant. If Hideki Matsui and Gary Sheffield make it back into the lineup by the start of the post-season, the Yankees can run out this lineup every single day (stats through games of 8/22):

CF - Damon: .298/.369/.512/.881
SS - Jeter: .336/.413/.470/.883
RF - Abreu: .301/.441.459/.900
1B - Giambi: .262/.419/.602/1.020
3B - Rodriguez: .287/.389/.506/.895
DH - Sheffield (05): .291/.379/.512/.891
LF - Matsui (05): .305/.367/.496/.863
C - Posada: .270/.368/.463/.831
2B - Cano: .326/.355/.479/.834

Yes, that's right, a lineup where every hitter has an OPS above .831. There are only 32 hitters in the American league with an OPS over .831. It's a team that will not only hit the ball, and hit it hard, but a lineup that will make pitchers work. Even some of the best offensive teams of recent memory (1995 Indians, 1996 Mariners, 1998 Yankees, 2004 Red Sox) had at least one, if not more, hole in their lineup (Tony Pena/Omar Vizquel, Russ Davis, Chad Curtis, Pokey Reese/Doug Mientkeiwicz/Gabe Kapler). This Yankee team, on the other hand, has none.

But wait, you'll say, Matsui and Sheffield are on the DL. True. But Matsui should be back in a few weeks, giving him plenty of time to get in shape for the postseason. Granted, Sheffield is a bit further away. But even if he doesn't make it back, Melky Cabrera is hitting .287/.361/.412/.774. Not staggering, sure. But a .774 OPS is still above average, and while he may not be as good as Sheffield, he's still far from a "hole" in the lineup.

Talking this over with the unrepentant Yankee-hater Ben, he mentioned that he thought the Mets lineup was nearly as good. While the Mets lineup is very strong, you can see it's nowhere near the level of the Yankees:

SS - Reyes: .290/.346/.477/.823
C - Lo Duca: .311/.352/.415/.767
CF - Beltran: .288/.388/.628/1.016
1B - Delgado: .258/.356/.536/.891
3B - Wright: .299/.373/.522/.895
2B – Valentin: .285/.338/.497/.834
RF – Green: .283/.349/.429/.778
LF – Floyd: .245/.330/.416/.746

Sure, Carlos Beltran is having a monster season, and Reyes, Wright, and Delgado are tough outs. Hell, Jose Valentin is having a totally unexpected resurgance. But still, there are three guys in the lineup who have significantly lower OPS numbers than anyone in the Yankees lineup.

But the Yankees have been stacked in previous years and haven't won the World Series, you say. Well, that might be true. But first of all, they came damn close in 2003 and 2004. Second of all, neither team had an offense nearly as good as this one. Ok, fine, you might say. Still, all it takes is good pitching, and you can beat the Yankees, especially in a short series. I'll give you that Johan Santana and a healthy Francisco Liriano is not the first-round matchup the Yankees are hoping for. But first Liriano would have to get back off the DL (well, first the Twins would have to make the playoffs). An Athletics team with Dan Haren, Barry Zito, and a healthy Rich Harden would also perhaps cause problems, except Harden is an even bigger question mark than Liriano and the Yankees have owned Zito. Plus, there's no guarantee that Oakland could generate any offense, even against a fairly non-descript Yankee pitching staff.

Ah, the pitching: it's what wins you games in October (or so the conventional wisdom goes). Well, The Yankees may not have a great staff. They might not even have a good one. But it should be more than enough to get them their 27th title. Mike Mussina is still quite effective, Chien Ming Wang is a good starter no matter what Ben thinks, and Randy Johnson has pitched better in the last month. Plus, Mariano Rivera is still the best reliever in baseball history (especially once the postseason rolls around) and while the rest of the pen is nothing special, it's good enough.

Teams like Boston and Chicago (AL) will be unable to overcome their putrid pitching to make a real run at the World Series, but the lineup the Yankees have assembled is too powerful, too patient, and too deep to come up short. Sure, anything can happen: injuries, slumps, trips to the Springfield Mystery Spot. But much like Mr. Burns' team of ringers, the 2006 Yankees are a team that can not lose.

Trading Day

2006-08-23T03:38:00.000-04:00

I noticed quite a few deals went down today across the sports world and since I’ve been writing about nothing but baseball recently, it was a good opportunity to change gears. Well somewhat anyway, there’s plenty of baseball here too. But the NFL and NBA find their way into this column. So to recap the deals:

The Mets acquired OF Shawn Green from the Diamondbacks for LHP Evan MacLane.

The Phillies acquired IF Jose Hernandez from the Pirates for cash.

In the NBA, the Pacers acquired F Al Harrington and C John Edwards from the Atlanta Hawks for a 1st round pick.

In the NFL, Falcons, Broncos and Redskins made a three way swap. The Broncos sent WR Ashlie Lelie to the Falcons, who sent HB TJ Duckett to the Skins, who sent a third round pick to the Broncos.

Got all that? I neglected to mention a swap Green Bay did with Cleveland for two inconsequential players who will probably never see the field in any meaningful action this year.

Of course at Sportszilla, we’re not about just listing trades. If we post it, we’re going to analyze it. So fasten your seatbelts as we jump across sports to get to the nitty gritty, emphasis on “gritty.” (More on that later). And since I’m writing this, you know I have to begin with the Mets. Sorry non Mets fans, if you’re not interested, just skip past and check out the other deals. To be fair, it was the biggest baseball trade of the day…

New York Mets received Shawn Green and cash from the Arizona Diamondbacks for LHP Evan MacLane.

The Mets get an upgrade from Lastings Milledge in Green, but with splits of .283/.348/.429/.777 in a hitter’s park in Arizona, it isn’t as if the Mets just added a difference maker’s bat. Green represents an average outfielder at this point. Then again, the Mets really don’t need much more than that; they’ve already got three top flight offensive players in their lineup. And at six million next year Green isn’t a bad player to have, especially since Cliff Floyd will likely be allowed to walk in free agency.

The D’Backs get salary relief. They seemed determined to dump Green, and in exchange for picking up half the remaining contract, get a mediocre prospect in MacLane. If the 23 year old lefty couldn’t find his way into the Mets rotation this year, he likely never would. He had a 3.86 ERA in 121.1 IP at AAA with a 67/35 K/BB ratio. Despite a decent ERA, he currently he stands behind Brian Bannister, Mike Pelfrey, Oliver Perez, Phillip Humber and probably even Aaron Heilman on the Mets rotation depth chart. So he was expendable. But in Arizona, where the pitching after Brandon Webb is a giant question mark, he could be useful.

Phillies get IF Jose Hernandez from the Pirates for cash

Jose Hernandez has two claims to fame in my book. First, he would have easily shattered the single season strikeout record with the Brewers in 2002 if not for the fact he was essentially benched the last three weeks of the season to prevent that from happening. Secondly, he was the player the Pirates got back for Arimas Ramirez and Kenny Lofton. Great trade, eh?

This season 37 year old Hernandez has splits of .267/.328/.350/.678. At third base. Brilliant.

But it gets better. He’s actually an upgrade over Abraham Nunez, the Phillies current place holder there has splits of .208/.267/.268/.535. That’s in a hitter’s park… at third base. Just in comparison, last year my favorite whipping boy was Cristian Guzman of the Nationals. He managed splits of .219/.260/.314/.574… in the most extreme pitcher’s park in baseball… at shortstop.

To sum up, the Phillies have been starting possibly the worst regular baseball has seen in some time at third base, an offensive position. So yeah, this is one of those rare, rare times where picking up a 37 year old corner infielder with a .678 OPS is actually a good move.

As a side note, ESPN lists Nunez as “Abraham O. Nunez.” I’ll leave you to make as many jokes about that middle initial as you see fit.

The Pacers pick up F Al Harrington and C John Edwards from the Atlanta Hawks in exchange for a 2007 1st round draft pick

I guess the Pacers figure they’ll be out of the lottery now. Not sure how this makes them that much better. Harrington is a solid player; 18.6 points last year and 6.9 rebounds per game. I will not make a political joke here about Mr. Edwards… or a joke about talking to dead people… or even a joke about the religious history of this country (for all you history majors out there).

Maybe I’m missing something here, and since Larry Bird is considered to be an excellent general manager, it’s certainly possible. But how can you give up a first rounder when your team could easily miss the playoffs this year considering you’re overhauling the whole roster. And again, Harrington is a solid player, but worth a first round pick? I mean he averaged less points per game than Wally Szczerbiak, Ricky Davis and put up just .4 points per game more than the man he replaces, Peja Stojakovic. Would you trade a first for any of those players?

Good move for the Hawks meanwhile. They’re whole team is made up of small forwards, so to get an extra first rounder for one of them will help down the road.

Falcons get Ashlie Lelie, Redskins get TJ Duckett, Broncos get a 2007 3rd round pick from Redskins

Peerless Price didn’t work out so now the Falcons will try again with a talented speed wideout who’s had limited success in the NFL. This time they gave up less, as Duckett is a part time player. If Lelie pans out he’ll have far more of an effect on the team than Duckett ever could. Now will Michael Vick be able to get him the ball?

Guess Clinton Portis’ injury is serious. That’s the only reason I can see the Skins for picking up Duckett for a third round pick, a pretty steep price in today’s NFL. If Portis is coming back soon, then this is a waste, since part time backs aren’t that hard to find. Either way, this isn’t a good sign for the Skins.

With Javon Walker and Rod Smith, there was no need to keep the disgruntled Lelie around anymore in Denver. He never panned out to his first round billing, but a third round pick at this stage isn’t a terrible haul for the Broncos.

By the way, to the Skins have some sort of agreement with Denver that they must find a way to ship a draft pick to them every year? Actually, I think they also have one with the Jets as well, since I believe they gave their 2007 second rounder up to move up in that round this year.

So that’s the trade round up. But I’ll leave you with a few more passing thoughts on a some miscellaneous subjects:

-NL MVP voting- Pujols 7, Beltran 2:

Seven is the total number of RBI phat Albert had tonight against John Maine, all coming on the strength of a three run homer in the fourth and a grand slam one inning later. The problem? It’s the Cardinals’ general one in a nutshell.

Staked to a 7-1 lead, Jeff Weaver promptly gave four back in the bottom of the inning , surrendering a grand slam to Carlos Delgado. (His 400th career hr) Then after the Mets scored a run in the sixth, Carlos Beltran hit a two run, game winning homer of closer Jason Isringhausen in the ninth to seal the comeback victory.

When Chris Carpenter isn’t pitching Albert Pujols is the Cardinals lone weapon. Carlos Beltran is a big one for the Mets, but there are plenty of guys to pick him up if he has problems early on. If Pujols didn’t hit those bombs off Maine, the Cardinals likely lose big. That isn’t to say Beltran isn’t deserving of the award, but as of right now, I’d give it to Pujols.

-DFA'd Diaz Likely Done

Alliteration is fun. Anyway, Mini Manny aien’t that no more. Since a decent ’05 campaign where he posted a .795 OPS in 280 ABs, Diaz has fallen off the map. This year at AAA his line was .224/.276/.330/.606. For a corner outfielder. That’s just horrendous. When Michael Tucker got the recall over Diaz after Cliff Floyd’s recent DL stint, the writing was on the wall.

Still just 24, Diaz deserves a shot to play with someone. A change of scenery could help. Why wouldn’t someone like the Pirates or Royals roll the dice with him? It would be relatively shocking if he made it through waivers. In all likelihood, his days as a Met are done.

-Jets Set the Bar- Low

Gang Green picked up Niners half back Kevan Barlow this week in exchange for a mid round draft pick. Why? I guess the Jets are banking on a change of scenery and a better offensive team (no matter how bad the Jets look the Niners are much worse) will help Barlow resemble the guy who averaged 5.1 YPC in 2003. Still the Jets were better off gambling on one of their young guys, or just waiting until next year. I mean it’s not like this team is going to be contending for anything this season.

It's also looking more and more certain Curtis Martin's playing days are over. And that's a disappointment, considering how he went out.

-Judging “Heart”

I promised you "gritty" and I deliver. It's link time. Clark Judge apparently thinks the Vikings are very smart for replacing the extremely talented Daunte Culpepper for a “proven winner” in Brad Johnson. You know, akin to Tom Brady. Don’t laugh people: I’m dead serious. Just click the link and look at the title.

Apparently we’re all wrong. Talent doesn’t win championships. It’s scrappiness, grit and heart. Give me Brad Johnson, Ed McCaffery, David Eckstein, Brian Scalabrine and Darren Erstad and dammit, I’ll win you a World Series, Super Bowl, Stanley Cup and NBA Championship… all in the same year. And forget the World Cup, they’d dominate over teams like Brazil and Argentina! Because we all know white “heart” triumphs over minority “talent”.

Anyone rolls their eyes, try to remember the last minority athlete who ever got identified as “scrappy and/or gritty.” Also remember this:

You can’t spell “scrappy” without, well, everything after the “s”.

-Fight Night: Toronto

Speaking of scraps, who’s going to the be next Blue Jay to get into it with skipper John Gibbons? Vernon Wells? Lyle Overbay? Troy Glaus? Maybe BJ Ryan. But really there’s only one guy I want to see have it out with the literally embattled manager.

Doc Halladay. I can see the headlines now: Showdown at the OK Corral. Bring your own six shooter John; I hear Doc fires those pellets with pinpoint accuracy.

That’s two historical references in one column. Good sign if you’re writing a paper, bad for a sports site. So on that note, I think it’s time to end it for now. Until next time:

May the Abraham Nunez/Jose Hernandez platoon produce a .600 OPS at 3rd base… in a hitter’s park.

Now if they only had hustle and grit, those Phillies would be alright.

Uber Mashing

2006-08-22T01:18:00.000-04:00

People are seeing red in Boston these days, but not in a good way.

Not since 2004 has there been an embarrassment as complete as the thorough beat down the Yankees put on the Red Sox this weekend, sweeping a five game set. The Red Sox imploded in just about everyway possible and going out with a whimper as their only consistent player in this series, Manny Ramirez, left Monday’s 2-1 loss in the fifth inning with an injury.

In response to this, and the inevitable questions and criticisms which will be hurled his way, Red Sox G.M. Theo Epstein said he cannot create an “uber” team every year and that the Sox must also look towards the future rather than focus squarely on the present. It was no doubt a shot at the Yankees’ payroll, and while it was said not to be an excuse, of course it is.

But does that make it any less legitimate? Well that warrants further review.

Even I, who made light of the fact the Sox have the second highest payroll in baseball on Friday, have to realize that the difference between the Yankees ($198,662,180) and Boston ($120,100,524) is 78 million dollars. That roughly equates to the difference between the Red Sox and Colorado Rockies($40,791,000), who have the fourth lowest payroll in baseball. The Sox and Kansas City Royals ($47,294,000) are actually closer payroll wise than the Sox and the Yankees. If Kansas City cried foul with the current economics of the game, we’d all agree with them. So if the Sox are actually further behind the Yankees than the Royals are to them, then is Epstein wrong in using that as an excuse?

Joseph Pawlikowski from the Sporting Brews posed a fair question to me in the comments to Free Baseball III on the matter;

…For the past few years, the argument has been that money can't buy championships. The Yankees have spent upwards of $200 million, and it hasn't won them anything past the ALCS. And people take great joy in that.

But now that they're poised for a World Series, everyone is crying foul about payroll, saying that the Yankees are buying a championship.

So which is it?…

My response was basically that the Yankees payroll doesn’t guarantee victory. In fact nothing can guarantee that in a short series, other than one team forfeiting. But it gives them a large advantage because that payroll allows them into the postseason every year. But I realize that explanation isn’t really enough. Teams can spend more than everyone else and still stink right?

Well here’s where the Yankees beat everyone, including the Red Sox. They spent so much it is actually near impossible for them to fail in reaching the postseason. Look at this season for example.

The Yankees lose Hideki Matsui and Gary Sheffield to injury. Two 100 RBI plus guys, gone. What are the Yankees to do? Well they play guys like Melky Cabrera and Bernie Williams, which is fine. But they still have four top five players (at their position) in their lineup. A-Rod having a down year? No problem. Jeter, Damon, Giambi and even Posada can pick him up. Randy Johnson getting real old, real fast? Those offensive juggernauts will score five and a half runs a game for him. Finally, pretty much equal in run differential to the offensive heavy Sox and Blue Jays($71,915,000)? Go out and buy another bat, and get the other team so desperate to dump salary, they throw in an arm to help your beleaguered staff as well.

Look for a moment at the A’s.($62,332,054) Eric Chavez is hurt and as a result, having a down year. Bobby Crosby is struggling, as is Mark Ellis. They’ve gotten plus production from Nick Swisher and Frank Thomas, but that’s not enough to overcome their losses offensively, so they struggle on that end. Mind you, they still have 71 wins, but a large part of that is because of a ridiculous domination of the Mariners which defies conventional logic.

Back to the Red Sox. When they lost Matt Clement and Tim Wakefield to injury, what were they to do? Trade for someone? That was likely impossible without destroying their farm system, which of course was already ravaged by the acquisition of Josh Beckett. Or, do as the Yankees do; acquire a salary dump. That’s fine if you’ve got payroll to burn. But with the David Ortiz extension pushing an already stretched budget, who’s the say the Sox can afford it? Not Epstein.

Now the Sox are far from blameless. They gambled on making Jonathan Papelbon the closer, figuring their rotation was deep enough. They were wrong. A reliever would have been much easier to acquire than a starter, and the Sox would likely look much better with Papelbon in the rotation and say, Bob Wickman closing things out in the ninth. They traded for Beckett, who has gotten bombed like no other but these things happen. Yankee fans will remember the Jeff Weaver disaster fondly, or rather, not fondly at all.

But don’t forget, the Yankees’ pitching isn’t why they’re winning. The Sox hit Chien Ming Wang Friday afternoon, pounded Sidney Ponson Friday night and Johnson Saturday. They hit Mike Mussina before he departed with an injury Sunday night, and only struggled for offense Monday, when they didn’t have Ramirez in the lineup for half the game. The Sox offense however, is just three or so men deep; Ramirez, Ortiz and Kevin Youkilis. Mark Loretta’s a nice player, but a table setter, not a run producer. Eric Hinske is extremely streaky (and has just arrived). Coco Crisp is overrated.

If the Sox had an equivalent payroll to the Yankees and were able to acquire Bobby Abreu and Corey Lidle, would things have been different? Furthermore if the Sox could afford to pay Johnny Damon upwards of 14 million when he’s slowed down in center and can’t run the bases anymore in three years, would things be the same as they are now? Those are three players who might have been Red Sox if all things were equal. But they’re not.

The only team, on paper, which has a lineup comparably as deep as the Yankees’ (but not as good), is the Mets. ($100,901,805) But the Amazins’ lucked out; they have two offensive stars making the major league minimum this year, in addition to guys like Carlos Beltran, Carlos Delgado, and when healthy, Cliff Floyd. That allows them to afford the likes of Billy Wagner and Delgado, or even Pedro Martinez and Beltran from the off season two years ago.

If Jose Reyes and David Wright were making over 10 million each, at least one and likely two of those aforementioned hired guns wouldn’t be here now. And you could forget any talk about Barry Zito in the upcoming off season.

And again, the Mets probably could have had Abreu if they had eaten his salary for next year. But that would have hindered their plans to get a pitcher this winter, so they’ll have to live or die with Lastings Milledge/ Endy Chavez in right field this year.

And so we come back to the Red Sox and Theo Epstein once more. Does his argument against the “uber” team seem like sour grapes now? Of course. Does it seem hypocritical? Yep. But is he wrong? Again, remember this:

The difference between the Yankees and Red Sox right now, according to ESPN.com- $78,561,656

The difference between the Red Sox and the Royals right now, according to ESPN.com- $72,806,524

So, you tell me.

Oliver Twist

2006-08-20T05:45:00.000-04:00

Tonight at AAA Norfolk, 25 year old lefty Oliver Perez posted a line of:

7 IP, 1 H, 2 BB, 11 K, 0 ER, 94 pitches, 59 strikes.

Why is this important? Because of the news breaking late Saturday night/early Sunday morning: ESPN reports Tom Glavine has an unknown ailment in his shoulder which is causing numbness in his pitching hand. What this injury will do to the lefty’s season is unknown at this point because they’re not quite sure what he has.

In the short term, Brian Bannister should be recalled once his rehab stint is finished this week. In the long term, especially if Pedro Martinez is out for any length of time, the call may go to Perez, especially after putting together back to back solid performances for Norfolk.

So to Perez, Bannister, Orlando Hernandez, Steve Trachsel and John Maine; the fight for a spot in the postseason might have just become a bit more wide open. And for the Mets, their chances for the World Series just grew a bit murkier as well.

Out of those candidates, none look all that appealing. But there’s no question the one with the highest upside is Perez. With two encouraging starts underneath his belt, the Mets would be wise to give him a look, if not now then in September. (They could use Glavine’s roster spot to stick him on the postseason roster if Glavine is out for the year). It’s a long shot, but wouldn’t it be quite a twist if that Perez, who by most accounts was acquired just to be traded for Scott Linebrink before that deal fell through, became the guy who saved the Mets rotation?

Stranger things have happened.

Free Baseball III: Friday Night Sights

2006-08-19T02:29:00.000-04:00

Author’s note: To any Yankee fans, you might want to disregard parts of this, which will seem like a long winded rant on them. It’s not all about them, but large chunks of it are. I suppose you can just take issue with me at the end, but again, you have been warned….

As usual, it’s Friday night and I’m catching up the baseball scoreboard instead of going out. Not that I have anywhere to go. Long Island is a dull place, best suited for people with kids to look after. Since that’s not me, I’m pretty much bored silly out here. So what else is there to do but write, especially after I’ve already played three games of MLB 06’?

Up next are the some observations from looking at the scoreboard tonight. Naturally since I’m in New York, it’s Yankees/Red Sox first.

Game 1: Yankees 12- Red Sox 4
Game 2- Yankees 14- Red Sox 11

-It’s hard to call a team three and a half back with over a month to go done, but mark it down: Boston is toast. They cannot pitch and no help is on the way. While I do believe Josh Beckett will turn it around, I have far less faith in Jon Lester. Tim Wakefield is a question mark due to injury, Matt Clement has to deal with injuries and ineffectiveness while David Wells is old. Real old. I’m not a believer in momentum, but the Sox just got swept in a double header where Chien Ming Wang was giving up flyballs like nobody’s business and Sidney Ponson was the starter in Game 2. Why? Because somehow they managed to find starters worse than that, something not even the Orioles and Devil Rays could do. Boston, you need pitching to compete. But none’s available anymore. You are done.

This, by the way, is why Jonathan Papelbon is infinitely more useful as a starter. He didn’t pitch in either game of this double header. Why? Because he’s reliant on his team to get him a lead to protect and they couldn’t do that. If Papelbon were in the rotation, then he’d be guaranteed to see the Yankees in this series in a meaningful situation. He probably will see the Bombers everntually, but there’s no guarantee it’s in a save situation, where he’s actually valuable. He’s the Sox best answer to their pitching woes. Unfortunately, it’s way too late in the season to stretch him out.

Oh and finally, since this series is everywhere, maybe now people can realize that while David Ortiz is an excellent player, he’s no Manny Ramirez.

-Meanwhile, the Yankee offense rocks. It’s the best group money can buy and certainly weeds the mediocre pitchers from the good quickly. How on earth do you stop Damon/ Jeter/ Abreu/ A-Rod/ Giambi/ Posada and *grimace* Cano? The lowest OPS in that bunch belongs to Posada at .822. Overall, the lowest one in their everyday lineup is either Bernie Williams at .747 or Craig Wilson at .745. Their worst hitters are essentially OPSing .750.

Of course I have to do this because it really is “bought” in everyway imaginable:

Damon 13 mil
Jeter 20.6 mil
A-Rod 25.68 mil
Abreu 13.6 mil
Giambi 20.42 mil
Posada 12 mil

That equals 105.3 million in those hitters alone. That doesn’t include Sheffield and Matsui, who are both making well over ten million.

For the record, there is one team in all of baseball with an entire payroll more than that; the Red Sox. (So don’t feel too bad for them) But six ninths of the Yankees’ lineup makes more than an entire Mets team that has to pay Carlos Beltran, Carlos Delgado, Pedro Martinez, Billy Wagner and Tom Glavine! Three guys on that Yankees’ list make more individually than the Marlins entire team does.

Yankee fans don’t want to hear it and it might sound like sour grapes, but this is a disgrace. There is no other sport where one team has this much of an advantage, with the possible exception of Chelsea in the EPL. The Yankees are not well run in terms of evaluating players, they just buy their championships. By the way, I know it’s been said, but the Yankees lineup with those guys minus Abreu was 91.7 million, which is still more than 20 teams’ entire payroll. Seriously, the only people who thought the Yankees were doing it with feel goods players like Melky Cabrera and Andy Phillips are people who live in New York.

Anyway Yankee fans, enjoy it. The division is yours. While the rest of us might complain about that astronomical payroll, that’s not your concern. Just don’t wonder why everyone is cheering for the Yankees go down in the postseason.

Game 1: Royals 7- A’s 1
Game 2: Royals 5- A’s 3

-There’s a reason the AL West doesn’t have a clear favorite; because none of the teams are very good. The A’s just got swept in a doubleheader by the Royals… the freaking Royals! Now I understand it was Joe Blanton and Esteban Loiaza, which is scraping the bottom of the barrel for Oakland, but I mean come on. It’s the Royals! And the worst part for the A’s is that both Justin Duchsherer and Huston Street gave it up in game two. They’ll still probably win the West because the rest of the teams stink. And of course they’re the team no one wants to face in the first round because it’s entirely possible Barry Zito and Danny Haren shut you down in games one and two putting you behind the eight ball.

Of course if you beat one of them, you’re basically home free.

Still the Mariners have to be wondering what things would be like if they could actually win a game against Oakland. Aw heck, let’s check up on them while we’re at it.

Angels 3- Mariners 0

-Next year some fantasy owner is going to take Jered Weaver in the first six rounds of his/her draft and end up shocked when he posts a 4.50 ERA. Don’t get me wrong, he’s a solid young pitcher. But he’s got a GB/FB ratio of .64 and has surrendered just four homers in 78.1 IP. That’s a rate of .45/9. Can you say “utterly unsustainable?”

Meanwhile his opponent tonight was young Felix Hernandez, who lost again. He’s got a 4.50 ERA. But don’t sell yet. He’s going to be a great one. I’d take him high in my fantasy draft next year, but Zach has him. It’s a keeper league and he’s not letting him go. Why is the King destined for better things than Weaver? Because his K/9 is better (8.27/9 vs. 7.47) and while his K/BB is less (2.62 to 3.25) Hernandez’s GB/FB ratio is 2.25 meaning he gives up far less fly balls. And ground balls don’t leave the yard. Yet despite that, his homer rate is over twice as high as Weaver’s at 1.09.

I don’t think they would, but if I were a general manager I would call the Mariners and see what they wanted for the kid. Maybe they’d be down on him after a “so-so” season. I’d pretty much do it for anyone on my roster, so long as they were not producing at the big league level under the age of 25. (Makes it rather moot otherwise) It’s a long shot, but this is a team that employed Carl Everett for over half the baseball season.

Giants 7- Dodgers 3

-Speaking of terrible western divisions, the National League aien’t too pretty out there either. The Dodgers lose game one to the resurgent Giants (winners of five straight), who last week were falling apart at the seams. Two weeks ago, that was the Dodgers collapsing. Everyone in the NL West is a series of hot and cold streaks. The Phillies would fit in perfectly there. Some people call it exciting baseball. I call it mediocrity, AKA, the bottom rung of playoff teams in the NBA’s Eastern Conference.

I take that back. Similes like that are best saved for Bill Simmons, and I model myself on trying to avoid being like him.

Brewers 3- Astros 2

-I could get into Brad Lidge, but I won’t. There’s been enough negativity around here. So instead I’ll just say this:

Bill Hall- 27 homers. Who saw that one coming? He could be the next Alfonso Soriano.

Twins 7- Chi Sox 3

-If you want a feel good story, look up the Minnesota Twins. They were left for dead at the start of June and rallied behind Francisco Liriano to shoot up into playoff contention. Then when Liriano went down to injury, many, myself included, again figured they were toast. And yet it’s the 19th of August and the Twinkies are 71-50 and just one game back of the Chi Sox for the Wild Card lead.

And for all those people who are calling for Derek Jeter to be MVP (sorry, but I know that’s going to be argued for after his bases clearing double in the second game of that doubleheader), please check out Joe Mauer. The Twins catcher has an OPS of .954. Jeter has a mark of .887. (heading into tonight) Mauer is one of the best defensive catchers in the game. Jeter at short is average at best. Oh and Mauer’s entire team’s payroll is 63.81 million. Not that either one should be MVP but please, tell me who’s more valuable to his team?

-The Chi Sox are like the Red Sox, all hitting, no pitching. They also have their best arm sitting in the pen, Brandon McCarthy, but he’s being blocked by something I like to call “veteran obstinace.”

That’s when a manager refuses to give a young player a chance because the veteran is more experienced. Never mind Mark Buehrle’s getting bombed on a routine basis, Freddie Garcia hasn’t had a good season since 2001 and four runs in six innings qualifies as a good start for Javier Vasquez these days. They’re veterans dammit so Ozzie Guillen believes in them more than Brandon McCarthy! “Hey Jon Garland never loses. So what if it’s because we score 6.55 runs a game for him? And who knows? If Javy Vasquez didn’t pitch so poorly, we’d never be able to motivate ourselves to score 8.13 runs per game for him!” Yep, got to stick with the proven guns Ozzie. Just disregard that these vets are pitching the Sox right out of the postseason.

Ah veteran obstinace, coming to a manager near you, very soon. (If it hasn’t already)

And of course I have to mention the Amazins:

Mets 6- Rockies 3

Steve Trachsel won his 12th game tonight. He surrendered 3 runs in seven innings, so this qualifies as a good start for him. (Even if he did allow an RBI single by the opposing pitcher) Meanwhile Byung Hyun Kim didn’t do anything to help his road totals- six runs allowed tonight. I know the Mets are pretty much assured a playoff spot, but you don’t feel safe until you’re actually in the postseason.

I also am a little disappointed the Mets have decided to use Dave Williams instead of Oliver Perez this Saturday. I know it’s one start, but part of me wonders what would have happened if Perez came up and threw six innings, allowing a pair of runs while striking out eight. Maybe he’d be the answer to the Mets’ rotation woes. At this point you just throw it all against the wall and see what sticks. What have you got to lose?

Well this concludes this random stream of consciousness for the evening. Hope you enjoyed this edition for “Free Baseball” with the next installment coming whenever one of us at Sportszilla gets too much time on their hands, which in my case, might be tomorrow.

For those that liked this, check out the precursors: Free Baseball and Free Baseball II: The Doubleheader.

Sportszilla's Premiership Preview

2006-08-19T02:00:00.000-04:00

The 2006-2007 Premiership season starts today. Chelsea will be trying to make it three championships in a row. Manchester United, Liverpool, and Arsenal will try to catch them. Reading, Sheffield United, and Watford have been promoted from the Championship while we bid adieu to West Brom, Birmingham City, and Sunderland.

Now instead of previewing each and every team, I thought I would just run through the major headlines of the offseason and point out some things out to keep an eye on.

Big Transfers
Michael Ballack to Chelsea
You can go ahead and say it’s not fair but just like the Yankees, Chelsea outspend everyone. Ballack’s contract was up at Bayern Munich and Chelsea brought him in with a big contract that pays him six figures a week (in British pounds). The midfielder will be expected to be a ball winner, make some nice passes, dribble, and score a few goals. Ballack is more than up to the task as he will pair up with Frank Lampard.

Andriy Shevchenko to Chelsea
Don’t worry, they had to pay AC Milan £30 million for his services. The one thing Mourinho had yet to get is a legitimate goalscorer. Serie A is considered to be a league that is predicated on defense. Shevchenko managed to score over 30 goals last season. I think Mourinho has got his man.

Michael Carrick to Manchester United
This was all about business for Tottenham Hotspur. They bought Carrick from West Ham for £2.5 million two years ago. They sold him to Manchester United for potentially £18 million. Carrick will be the best passer United have had since David Beckham. If he can stay healthy, he will be a force in United’s midfield.

Tomas Rosicky to Arsenal
American soccer fans will remember the goal he scored in the World Cup for the Czechs. Shadowed by Pavel Nedved on the international stage, Rosicky is a sensational playmaker who will look to supply Thierry Henry with plenty of assists. The Czech will replace Robert Pires who left for Spain.

Dimitar Berbatov to Tottenham Hotspur
Spurs are UEFA Cup bound this season and need some extra goalscoring punch to accompany Jermain Defoe and Robbie Keane. The Bulgarian hitman is just as good at scoring goals as he is getting his teammates involved. He had a terrific preseason and Spurs hope he can carry it into the season.

Dirk Kuyt to Liverpool
In a move that happened on Friday, Liverpool signed the Dutch striker from Feyenoord for £9 million. Rafael Benitez has had trouble finding a legitimate striker ever since he let Michael Owen go to Real Madrid. With Cisse and Morientes gone, it’s up to Kuyt and fellow newcomer Craig Bellamy to pick up the scoring burden.

Big Storylines
Glazer’s Got Company
Malcom Glazer and his family are not the only ones to own both an NFL team and a Premiership team. Cleveland Browns owner Randy Lerner bought the team from Doug Ellis. While Glazer’s takeover was considered rather unpopular with United fans, Lerner’s purchase of the team was celebrated. Ellis fell out of favor with Villa fans and any new owner who was going to show a commitment to winning would be welcomed. Lerner hopes to get that done.

Is Sir Alex on the Hotseat?
Manchester United has not won the Premiership since 2003. They didn’t make it out of the Champions League group stages last year. They only managed to win the Carling Cup last season and had to use the first choice lineup to do so. There are many who believe that Ferguson’s time is up and that he should have retired a few years ago. The Glazers could really make their stamp on the team if they do replace Sir Alex.

Arsenal’s New Home
Say goodbye to the crappy surrounding that was Highbury (I’ve been there, it’s wasn’t a very good stadium) and say hello to the 60,000 seat Emirates Stadium. Arsenal finally has a stadium that matches their stature as one of England’s best clubs but is it possible that the players will miss their cozy surroundings? We’ll see.

Still a Busy Transfer Market
This just in, defender Khalid Boulahrouz has just joined Chelsea from Hamburg. Expect some big names to move before the September 1 deadline. Ashley Cole has been held out of the Arsenal starting lineup in today’s match because many expect a move to Chelsea to be in the works. Defender William Gallas saw the team hand Michael Ballack his number 13 jersey and the signing of Boulahrouz might seal his exit. Manchester United still wants another central midfielder and the new name is Owen Hargreaves who is apparently eager to join United from Bayern Munich. However, the German champs lost Ballack in the offseason and want to hold on to him. That may mean that Villarreal’s Marcos Senna could be Old Trafford bound. And Arsenal winger Jose Antonio Reyes may still be heading to Real Madrid after he made it clear he wants to leave London for the Spanish capital.

The New Managers
Martin O’Neill (Aston Villa)
Before Ellis sold the team to Lerner, Villa hit the jackpot by securing the services of Martin O’Neill. He was away from the game last season tending to his wife. Before that, he was the man at Celtic, leading them to SPL titles. He is an excellent motivator and will look to rejuvenate an Aston Villa team that grew tired of David O’Leary. Take this into consideration when thinking about how good O’Neill is. He was the favorite a few years ago to be Sir Alex Ferguson’s heir at Manchester United.

Gareth Southgate (Middlesbrough)
It’s a classic case of club legend becoming the manager. Southgate was a great central defender for Boro but does he really know anything about managing? He will be given a massive learning curve. There is also going to be plenty of pressure on him when you consider who he is replacing. Steve McClaren left the Riverside to become the next England manager. And boy did he have a nice debut thrashing Greece 4-0. Maybe David Beckham’s England career is really over…

Iain Dowie (Charlton Athletic)
Alan Curbishley decided he couldn’t do much more with the small budget club and left. Iain Dowie inspired Crystal Palace and brought them up to the Premiership for two seasons before they got relegated. Charlton management hopes he can do the same thing with this club.

New Teams on the Block
Reading (Won the Championship)
It’s safe to say that Reading dominated the Championship last season. They won the title by 16 points and scored 99 goals as a team. The death sentence of many promoted teams is that they don’t score enough goals. The team doesn’t have a standout goalscorer so they will have to do it as a team. It should be noted that the past two Championship winners (Norwich and Sunderland) both went straight back down after one season. Americans Marcus Hahnemann and Bobby Convey will have a big say in Reading’s survival hopes.

Sheffield United (Finished 2nd in the Championship)
Neil Warnock’s side has gained a reputation of not being very easy to beat. Without much for a goalscoring force, that could mean plenty of 0-0 draws. They didn’t sign a legit scorer in the offseason and that could spell trouble for Blades.

Watford (Finished 3rd in the Championship and won the play-off
At the start of last season, many expected Watford to be in Division One this season. Instead, Adrian Boothroyd’s side finished third and beat Leeds United in the play-off to earn their ticket back to the Premiership. They have a forward in Marlon King who scored 22 goals last season helped Watford earn promotion. They will turn to him again. Young goalkeeper Ben Foster was Watford’s starter last season and is back this season. He is technically Manchester United property but was loaned out to the club last season in hopes of him getting some experience. He did and now will play in the Premiership.

Predictions
The Premiership
20. Sheffield United
19. Watford
18. Fulham
17. Reading
16. Wigan
15. Portsmouth
14. Charlton Athletic
13. Bolton
12. Manchester City
11. Newcastle United
10. Middlesbrough
9. West Ham United
8. Aston Villa
7. Blackburn
6. Everton
5. Arsenal
4. Tottenham
3. Liverpool
2. Manchester United
1. Chelsea

The F.A. Cup
Manchester United

The Carling Cup
West Ham United

And remember, if some of the big name players get a little tired toward the end of the season, it's because of the World Cup. They didn't get enough rest so fatigue will be a factor.

Atrocious Sports Writing at It’s Worst

2006-08-18T15:50:00.000-04:00

It’s rare here that I’ll actually take potshots at writers unless they really infuriate me. I mean I’ve written probably an average of 2-3 posts per week here at Sportszilla and the likes of Scott Miller only grave my keyboard when they really piss me off, which equates to about five or six times in the last four months.

But Bill Plaschke, you’ve taken it to a new level.

I’ve mentioned the LA sportswriters and their stupidity before, when I absolutely ripped the Dodgers a new one for firing Paul DePodesta. It was writers like Plaschke that got DePodesta canned, all because he traded away Paul LoDuca the “heart and soul of the Dodgers” for Brad Penny. Basically people hated DePodesta because he got a talented pitcher for a mediocre catcher who was a “good guy.” Well now Penny is the Dodgers best pitcher and the “good guy” LoDuca is sleeping around with 19 year old girls. How does that trade look now?

In any case, Plaschke hates guys who evaluate players by statistics and seems to have a love affair with old scouts as is apparent in this piece that was torn to shreds by the boys at Fire Joe Morgan. It is one of the WORST pieces of journalism I’ve ever read and I say that without hesitation. Scott Miller is my favorite writer to rip in these parts, but this is a million times worse than anything he could possibly throw out there. It’s a condescending piece of garbage that essentially says “You stats guys are all wrong because this old scout figured out Andre Either is a good player!” Also “Paul DePodesta will never be Ned Coletti because he was a YOUNG guy who didn’t listen to scouts!.” (Really, I think part of the problem for DePo was that he was so young.) I won’t critique the whole piece, since FJM did such an excellent job, but I’ll share with you in my opinion, the worst section.

He was on the phone, and it sounded as if he was crying.

"You're writing something about an old fella like me?" said Al LaMacchia.

He's 85, and he's been scouting for 51 years, and he can't believe anybody still cares.

I tell him I am writing the story because the Dodgers still care.

For the first time since Fred Claire was their last world championship general manager, the Dodgers are listening to their older scouts again.

They are reading reports scrawled in aging penmanship. They are evaluating players based on dusted-off instincts.

Ned Colletti's new administration is still using computers, but they also value guys who have no idea how to turn one on.

"I trust my eyes," LaMacchia said. "Been good enough so far."

Colletti trusted LaMacchia's recommendation at last year's winter meetings in Dallas, and the Dodgers are in first place in August, and that is no coincidence.

Okay where to start? Plaschke makes it seem like he’s this heroic reporter who’s telling the story of guy who the cruel world left behind. It’s so melodramatic and just plain, excuse my language, CRAP, that I actually want to vomit. Simpsons fans will remember an episode where Bart becomes a reporter and to show Lisa up, starts doing melodramatic “people” stories. How about this comparison?

“You're writing something about an old fella like me?” said Al LaMacchia.

He's 85, and he's been scouting for 51 years, and he can't believe anybody still cares.

I tell him I’m writing the story because the Dodgers still care.

And the Bart quote:

“Of forgotten veterans. Their guns are quiet now. Their helmets lost, or pawned. And yet here they are, making flags out of old clothes. Sure, they may not have the right number of stripes. And the colors are all wrong. And some purists will tell you the American flag doesn't contain the word "Jordache". But you know, if they run this up the flagpole, I'll salute.”

One is for comedic purposes, the other, someone got paid to write seriously. Disgusting, just disgusting.

But like I said, Plaschke’s true message comes through after, when he takes shots at modern baseball, guys who uses stats and computers. You know horrid statistics like “on base percentage” or “slugging percentage.” God forbid anyone should look at strikeouts per nine innings! The world is falling! Save the children… you know, if they actually believe in looking in player’s eyes and knowing from that if he can play the game.

The Dodgers are in first place because the NL West is complete garbage. If they were in any other division, they’d settling for the Wild Card. And what great deals has Coletti made outside of the Bradley deal? (and it’s far too early to tell if Either will be great.)

Let see, Jae Seo for Duaner Sanchez. Not a bad trade in fairness because Seo with an ERA in the low 4.00’s is cheap and serviceable and relievers can be found easily. Except he traded Seo for Mark Hendrickson, who is just awful. How about Ceasar Izturis for Maddux? I didn’t think it mattered, but Izturis is an overpaid middle infielder. Most G.M.s make that swap. Two months of Julio Lugo for Guzman? By all accounts that trade looks to be a bad one. He got Wilson Betemit from the Braves, but I could tell you that was a great trade for the Dodgers and I’m just 23! And get this, I know how to turn on a computer!

Oh no, I guess my opinion on Betemit is useless then.

He’ll never see this most likely, but Plaschke, you are a disgrace to sportswriters everywhere and young people who want to be sportswriters. Your stories are so cruddy my college journalism professors would have given you a “C”, if they were feeling generous. An average sports fan can tear this to shreds. And for a die hard like me, this isn’t even worth the paper I use to… well you know the rest.

Read the whole column if you’re in a mood to be aggravated. But I feel as though the FJM guys need to spend more time on this guy. Or maybe I’ll get around to creating a site entitled; “Fire Bill Plaschke Now.”

Emphasis on Now.

Finding the Saviors Down the Stretch

2006-08-18T02:56:00.000-04:00

As usual it’s the dog days of August and around Major League baseball the critique of nearly all the contenders is the same.

“They just don’t have enough starting pitching to make you feel comfortable.”

But now we’re past the July 31st deadline and the only guys getting through waivers are overpaid and not very good. So the top teams are going to have to do battle with what they have; meaning those hurlers are going to have to step up in a big way soon.

Now it’s one thing to say “a team needs to pitch better” but it’s never as simple as that. If it were, pitchers’ wouldn’t be worth their multi million dollar contracts and guys like Rick Peterson and Leo Mazzone would be out of jobs. So instead of going team by team and saying that that group needs to turn it on, this list identifies guys who have the track record or potential to step up and be the key performer down the stretch. Since we’re going alphabetically, we start in Boston.

(Note: All pro stats are from ESPN.com and minor league stats are from the Baseball Cube. )

Boston Red Sox: LHP Jon Lester

72.2 IP, 4.09 ERA, 1.56 WHIP, 6.69 K/9, 1.50 K/BB, 1.07 GB/FB, .283 Opp BA

I know what you’re saying; wait, hasn’t Lester been a great find for the Red Sox? I thought he already was one of the things going well. Well yes and no. Yes he’s got six wins and a respectable ERA, but unless he improves soon, that’s not going to last.

The problem lies in the fact his K/BB ratio is just too low for a relative fly ball pitcher in the American league. Sure if you can get away with walking a ton if you’re Brandon Webb and induce nearly four times as many groundballs as fly balls. You’re going to get lots of double plays. But not if you’re giving up flies. So unless Lester improves on his strikeout to walk ratio, he’ll join the rest of the Sox pitchers not named Curt Schilling who are getting shelled nightly.

The good news is that his minor league numbers indicate he’ll at least get that K rate up. His career minor league strikeout rate 8.66 per nine heading into this season and he struck out 43 in 46.2 innings at AAA this year. Of course he also walked 25, which is why Red Sox fans should be hoping for an increase in his strikeouts rather than a decline in his walks. If he can do that, then he should be able to get away with an ERA around 4.00. And on the Red Sox, that’s going to be enough to keep them in just about every game they play.

Red Sox Redux: RHP Josh Beckett

152.1 IP, 5.02 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 7.44 K/9, 2.52 K/BB, 1.10 GB/FB, .246 Opp BA

Okay, you want numbers that make no sense, see Mr. Beckett. Has he declined from last year? Sure, as his K/9 was 8.36 last year. But 7.44 is still solid and his K/BB is acceptable for a guy who’s basically a fly ball pitcher. What I didn’t list here is home runs allowed. Beckett has surrendered 31, that’s right 31. That’s more than he surrendered in the last two years (30 in 335.1 IP) combined! Translated that’s a rate of 1.84/9. He’s giving up almost two home runs a game.

There is no suitable explanation for this. Yes he’s moved from a fabulous NL pitcher’s park to a neutral AL park and his GB/FB has dropped from 1.25 to 1.10 but none of that is enough to see that much of an increase in home runs allowed. I’ve just got to believe Beckett has been about as unlucky as a major league pitcher can possibly be this year. Nothing else in his stat line warrants this type of an increase, so it’s got to be an anomaly.

My bet is that Beckett will turn it around. Such a rate, even this late in a season, by all rights should not be sustained by a pitcher as good as the 26 year old righty. If Lester can continue improve his K rates as well, the Red Sox could make a serious run at finally knocking the Yankees from their AL East perch. Of course, that all starts this weekend.

By the way, Beckett has surrendered just 8 of those 31 homers at Fenway, which is acceptable. Yet despite an OPS against of .633 at home, his ERA is still 4.13 there! Really, this is one case that makes you throw up your hands and say “what the #$*^”!

New York Mets: RHP John Maine

50.1 IP, 2.68 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 7.33 K/9, 2.93 K/BB, .92 GB/FB, .242 Opp BA

Until last month, the 25 year old Maine was nothing more than the “minor leaguer” acquired in the Kris Benson trade to many Mets fans. He had also been quickly forgotten about, seeing as many wrote the trade off as being a disaster after just one month of Jorge Julio. But given an opportunity by chance recently, Maine made the best of it, pitching a complete game shut out over the Houston Astros. Since then the numbers speak for themselves as he’s pitched himself into a permanent rotation spot. The question is, can keep this up long enough to make an impact for the Mets come October?

Maine’s K rate has been excellent so far and his minor league numbers suggest they’re no fluke. He averaged 9.56 K/9 in the minors, though I’m more inclined to look at his two AAA seasons where he averaged 7.90 and 7.78 strikeouts per nine. His home run rate so far is 1.25, which I think is a little high, though he is a fly ball pitcher. In the minors the highest rate he had was at AAA at .91/9, so his homers allowed should come down a little. His Opp BA has been solid and he hasn’t walked many which is why his ERA has survived such a high homer rate, but his WHIP will increase some.

The Mets don’t need John Maine to be an ace to get to the World Series. If he can be a solid #3, with an ERA in the mid to high 3.00’s, and then give them six innings allowing two or three runs in the playoffs, that should be good enough for the Mets to win his start. Considering the other options for game three involve the hit or miss Orlando Hernandez and the just plain awful Steve Trachsel, Maine is the best hope for the Mets in their quest to stabilize the rotation.

Philadelphia Phillies: LHP Cole Hamels

84.0 IP, 4.50 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 10.29 K/9, 3.00 K/BB, .90 GB/FB, .238 Opp BA

The mucho hyped Phillies pitching prospect struggled initially after his promotion to the bigs. Pre All Star Break, Hamels had worked 44.2 innings and while there was nothing wrong with his K rate (44 Ks), he walked far too many (24). As a fly ball pitcher, even with his stuff, striking out less than twice the numbers of batters you walk is a recipe for trouble.

But since the break, Hamels has been one of the best pitchers in the game. He’s thrown 39.1 innings and struck out a whopping 52. Even more impressive is the fact he’s walked just 8! That translates to an 11.90 K/9 and 6.50 K/BB. Like I said, one of the best in the game.

Hamels is just 22, and had just 42 innings of ball at any level above A ball before his promotion to Philadelphia this year. Another issue is fatigue; Hamels has never pitched more than 101 innings in any year, and that was back in 2003. But it’s hard not to like his stuff and his success to this point.

Brent Myers is a decent second starter. Jon Lieber at this point is probably a high end four. Cole Hamels can be an ace. He’ll need to be if the Phillies want to make the postseason.

San Diego Padres: RHP Jake Peavy

150.1 IP, 4.55 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 9.70 K/9, 3.52 K/BB, .94 GB/FB, .259 Opp BA

The Padres have survived this far because Chris Young has pitched beyond expectations. But for them to catch the Dodgers and make the playoffs they need the 25 year old Peavy to return to form. But from the looks of it, that isn’t far off.

Jake Peavy’s beenone of the best pitchers in the league peripherally and yet is the owner of a 4.55 ERA in a pitcher’s haven. For some reason Peavy’s surrendered 19 homers this year, one more than he gave up in 203 innings last year! Injuries could have been an excuse, if his K/9 wasn’t the best it’s ever been in his career. He’s walking more batters this year but a 3.52 strikeout to walk ratio is still excellent. Heck it’s better than what it was two years ago when he posted a 2.27 ERA. So like Beckett, figure that home rate will drop.

It looks like that the turnaround has started; he’s allowed nine runs in 33.1 innings over his last five starts. It may not be enough to get the Padres into the postseason as they’ll still need their offense to kick it into gear, but it all starts with Peavy. If he continues his improvement, then a division crown is possible. If he begins to struggle anew, the Padres can start looking ahead to 2007.

San Francisco Giants: RHP Matt Cain

136.0 IP, 4.70 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 8.47 K/9, 1.86 K/BB, .90 GB/FB, .236 Opp Ba

It’s a lot to ask a 21 year old rookie to be the backbone of your playoff drive, but behind Jason Schmidt, Cain is the most talented member of the Giants staff. Noah Lowry looked to be an emerging pitcher last year, but back injuries have stemmed his development, at least this season.

The problem with Cain so far is simple; walks. There’s nothing wrong with his K rate, Opp Ba or homer rate (.99). However, he’s the pitcher on this list I’m the least optimistic about in the short term. (Long term he’s the best talent outside of Jake Peavy. Yes even better than Hamels) Cain never has had good control in the minors; his career BB/9 was 3.74 with rates over 4.00 at AA and AAA. Power pitchers can turn it around and become studs, just look at Scott Kazmir. But consistency is hard to find.

Still, hot streaks are possible, so if Cain can start hitting the strike zone a bit more frequently, the Giants will be primed for a run of their own. And considering September is the time when divisional foes beat up on each other, they could make up plenty of ground in a short period of time.

St. Louis Cardinals: RHP Anthony Reyes

64.2 IP, 4.73 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, 6.12 K/9, 1.63 K/BB, .72 GB/FB, .246 Opp Ba

While the Cardinals might boast one of the best starters in the game come postseason in Chris Carpenter, the rest of their rotation leaves a lot to be desired. Mark Mulder has continued his decline into mediocrity (and worse), Jeff Suppan isn’t any good and Jason Marquis has been the worst starter in the National League this year. Angels’ castaway and perennial disappointment Jeff Weaver isn’t the answer. With Adam Wainwright stuck in the pen, the burden of saving the Cardinals’ staff falls upon young Anthony Reyes.

Things haven’t gotten off to the greatest of starts so far for the 24 year old as his 4.73 ERA does suggest. ERA isn’t always the best indicator, but in Reyes’ case, it’s a fair assessment. He’s strike out rate is okay while he’s walking far too many. He’s an extreme fly ball pitcher which has resulted in 12 Hrs.

Now it’s possible that Reyes continues to perform below average. But there is reason to believe he could turn it around. First of all even for an extreme flyball pitcher, his 1.67 Hr/9 rate is way too high. At AAA this year, his K rate was 8.24/9 while his K/BB was an exceptional 8.13! He posted a homer rate of 1.14 and a WHIP of .97. This isn’t to say his stats should translate exactly, but at the very least his control should improve. Combine that with a likely decrease in home runs surrendered and Reyes could become a solid pitcher very soon.

Right now Reyes still probably is the Cardinals second best starter, though not by much. If they have dreams of getting back to the World Series in St. Louis, Reyes needs to raise his game well above mediocrity of the rest of the Cardinals rotation.

(Update: The Cardinals signed Preston Wilson Friday and then proceeded to send Reyes down. This is is a move St.Louis will regret. Their pitching staff is atrocious and Reyes currently is at least as good as Suppan or Marquis. The fact is he could be better than them and at this point has nothing to gain from gettin AAA hitters out. Honestly, I'm not sure what the deal with Tony LaRussa's love affair with Jason Marquis is. Does Marquis have incriminating photos of him or something?)

So to fans of playoff teams, yes your rotation isn’t as deep as you want it to be. But help could be on the way. Will Josh Beckett find himself and become the pitcher that carried the Marlins to a WS crown in 2003? Could Matt Cain spark a Giants run akin to Jaret Wright with the Indians back in 1997?

Remember these names. These question marks now could be heroes in just a few short months.

(Note: Think I've missed someone? Feel I've shortchanged your favorite player? Let me know.)

Sportszilla's European Football Power Poll - August

2006-08-16T02:16:00.000-04:00

Each month, I will give you my ranking of the top ten teams in European football. I figure now would be the best time to give the first one. The German Bundesliga and French Ligue 1 are already underway and the English Premiership starts this weekend with the Italian Serie A and the Spanish Primera Liga just around the corner.

1. FC Barcelona (Primera Liga)
Won the Champions League and Primera Liga last season. Then, they buy Gudjohnsen, Zambrotta, and Thuram in the summer while only losing Larsson. And the last time we checked, Ronaldinho, Deco, Eto’o, and Messi are still there. All of this adds up to the boys from the Catalan capital making a strong run at defending both titles.

2. Chelsea (Premiership)
Jose Mourinho has only one obsession: Win the Champions League. To help with that, he buys Andriy Shevchenko from AC Milan and gets Michael Ballack on a free transfer. Ashley Cole may be on his way as well. How much is all of this costing Roman Abramovich? Don’t ask.

3. Inter Milan (Serie A)
No team benefited more from what happened to Juventus. Not only have they been named last year’s Serie A Champions but they also bought Zlatan Ibrahimovic and Patrick Vieira from the demoted club. They also acquired Hernan Crespo from Chelsea on a two year loan. All of these new arrivals have to motivate Adriano.

4. Real Madrid (Primera Liga)
It’s a new era in Madrid and with new president Ramon Calderon and manager Fabio Capello, came some new galacticos. Cannavaro and Emerson arrive from Juventus and Ruud van Nistelrooy signed from Manchester United. Jose Antonio Reyes could be signing from Arsenal before the August 31 deadline. Whether or not this team will have the necessary chemistry is of great debate but we do know that the fans will miss Zidane.

5. Manchester United (Premiership)
United enter the season with a massive chip on their shoulder. Only winning the Carling Cup and coming in second in the Premiership will not do for a club that has only known excellence since the Premiership formed. Losing van Nistelrooy’s goalscoring prowess hurts but Rooney and Saha can expect plenty of service from new midfielder Michael Carrick. Ballwinning midfielder Marcos Senna could join before the deadline.

6. Liverpool (Premiership)
Rafael Benitez has been tremendous since joining Liverpool in 2004. He shipped out the disappointing Cisse and replaced him with Craig Bellamy who has shown he can score in the Premiership. No matter how hard Chelsea try, Steven Gerrard and Xabi Alonso might be the best central midfield partnership in Europe.

7. Bayern Munich (Bundesliga)
Germany’s defending champions are back with a new forward in the form of Lukas Podolski who made a name for himself during the World Cup. Oliver Kahn may not have played a meaningful game in June but he is still a quality goalkeeper. Just how much the team misses Michael Ballack is the question.

8. Arsenal (Premiership)
Sol Campbell and Robert Pires are gone. Ashley Cole and Jose Antonio Reyes might be heading out. Getting Tomas Rosicky was a great addition by Arsene Wenger. Cesc Fabregas is a fantastic young midfielder but he is not the same type of player as Patrick Vieira who they still haven’t replaced. If Cole departs, the defense will not be good enough for Arsenal to compete at any high level. Also remember, Arsenal made the Champions League this season only because Tottenham Hotspur collapsed on the final day of the season.

9. Olympique Lyon (Ligue 1)
Former Liverpool boss Gerard Houllier went back to France and led Lyon to the top last season. Lyon has the most talented roster in France and should be considered a darkhorse in European competition. They are big fans of winger Franck Ribery and would love to add him to a midfield that is already loaded with internationals.

10. AC Milan (Serie A)
Thank the appeals process for bailing AC Milan out. They will be in the Champions League this season and have seen their point deficit cut. Thanks to that, they have managed to hold on to their players and avoid getting gutted. However, they have to find a way to score goals. Losing Shevchenko is going to hurt real bad.

Just Missing the Cut
Valencia (Primera Liga)
Hamburg SV (Bundesliga)
AS Roma (Serie A)
Porto (Portugal)
PSV Eindhoven (Eredivisie)

Respect the Pronk

2006-08-15T01:15:00.000-04:00

When people talk about the best designated hitter in baseball, one name immediately comes to mind; David Ortiz. It’s so much of a slam dunk, most people wouldn’t even have to think about it. It’s like a reflex now with everyone and everything telling you how great Ortiz is, some even exhaling him to Hall of Fame proportions.

The problem is that for a while now, there’s been a quiet but very legitimate argument that Ortiz is in fact overrated, stemming from the fact he isn’t even the best hitter on his own team. And now he's not not even the best player at his "position" anymore.

Well to all those like Bill Simmons who swear Ortiz is the second coming, please stop what you’re doing, get up and respect another DH by the name of Travis Hafner. The man who is known as Pronk is, believe it or not, the best designated hitter in baseball. Yes better than even the god-man Ortiz.

Why wouldn’t most people say that? Because most people don’t actually know how good Hafner is. Since he plays for a mediocre Indians team and not in a huge market like Boston, ESPN and others like them just doesn’t have time to cover him. In fact despite clubbing six grand slams this year (tying a major league record), he’s probably still the best player people don’t know about. How else can one justify the fact he’s been left off the All Star roster in the past two years while being a legitimate MVP candidate in both? Yes, Hafner was a candidate last year, in fact, just as worthy as Ortiz. Sacrilege, I know. But first, let’s start with the basics; their overall numbers from 2006.

Hafner: .303/.428/.640/1.068, 35 Hr, 104 RBI, 86 Runs, 28 2B, 84/97 BB/K

Ortiz: .285/.397/.621/.1.018, 41 Hr, 110 RBI, 86 Runs, 22 2B, 80/93 BB/K

Now this isn’t a blowout by any stretch of the imagination, but Hafter has a better average, better on base and better slugging than Ortiz. He has less homeruns but that’s lessened by his average and extra doubles, thus computing out to a higher slugging percentage than Big Papi. So, it’s hard to argue against Hafner based off these numbers. But wait, I can hear it now:

“Ortiz is clutch! Do you know how many big home runs he hits? Do you know how many walk off jobs he has?”

Of course, those same people probably didn’t bother to look at Travis Hafner’s numbers with runners in scoring position this season. So far, Pronk’s OPS with RISP is 1.198 in 117 ABs. Ortiz has been excellent again, as his .993 mark with RISP (in 128 ABs) shows. But that does not compare to Hafner this year.

“You’re missing the point. Look at who’s better when the game’s on the line. It’s clearly Ortiz. Come on, I’ll take those clutch numbers over Hafner’s 50 point advantage in OPS any day of the week and twice on Sunday. You Moneyball stat freaks are all the same.”

Well in Ortiz’s 67 ABs in close and late spots this year, he’s pretty darn good. His OPS stands at 1.254. Hafner on the other hand is just horrible in his 51 ABs. His OPS is just 1.225 with an on base percentage of .500. You see, that’s what will happen when Manny Ramirez is not batting behind you. Hafner has walked 11 times in those spots while Ortiz, in 16 more ABs, has walked 10 times.

When pitchers fall behind Ortiz, they can’t simply walk the guy. They have to come in because of the Hall of Famer standing in the on deck circle. Victor Martinez is a good player, but he’s nowhere near Manny Ramirez. Forget their careers for a moment where it’s not even close. This season Ramirez is an MVP candidate, with an OPS just behind Hafner at 1.060. Victor Martinez is excellent for a catcher, but an .849 mark isn’t going to send shivers down a managers spine. So, who would you rather pitch to, Travis Hafner or Victor Martinez?

Yeah… I thought so.

And heck, who would you rather pitch to? Ortiz (1.018 OPS) or Ramirez (1.060 OPS)?

Speaking of “twice on Sunday” by the way, Hafner had the game winning hits in both ends of Cleveland’s doubleheader sweep of the Royals on Saturday. How’s that for clutch?

“Okay, this is a breakout season for Hafner. But Papi’s been doing this since 2003. You’ve got to give it to him based on consistency.”

Fair argument, but Hafner’s been doing it since 2004. And remember Ortiz is one year older. In fact, their careers look quite similar in terms of the arch with Pronk reaching the level of "superstardom" (at least numbers wise) a year earlier age wise. Ortiz had an OPS of .983 in 2004, Hafner .993. In 2005, a year where many feel Papi had the MVP crown stolen by Alex Rodriguez, the Red Sox DH had an OPS of 1.001. Hafner’s mark was 1.003, which essentially makes their production last year equivalent. Of course Hafner had less RBI last year, but that had more to do with the number of opportunities each player got. Hafner had 138 ABs with RISP in 2005, Ortiz 162, and Hafner even out OPSed Ortiz in those spots 1.071 to 1.042.

Where Ortiz does have it over Hafner is close and late last year, where he OPSed 1.293 in 78 ABs, which is sick. Hafner’s mark was only 1.001 in 70 ABs. Interestingly enough however, Hafner’s OBP was .444, 144 points higher than his batting average. Ortiz was .447, 101 points higher than his batting average. Since the two have pretty similar batting eyes, this suggests Hafner was seeing far less to hit than Ortiz. Once again the “Manny Ramirez factor” rears its head.

So to review, this season Travis Hafner is as good as or better than Ortiz in pretty much every category. Last season, Hafner was as good as or better than Ortiz in almost every category. (And to those who scream about RBI, I refer you to the RISP numbers once again.) Forget what your mind or memory tells you, the truth says otherwise.

Travis Hafner should be the most feared designated hitter in the American League. Big Papi shouldn’t feel bad. There’s no shame in being second. Meanwhile it’s time people realized how good Hafner really is. I know, Bill Simmons can claim he’s Roy Hobbs-esque!

Maybe then he’ll actually be able to make an All Star team.

Welcome to Splitsville

2006-08-14T01:24:00.000-04:00

Player evaluation is a funny thing.

For example, you trade for a player from say, the Texas Rangers. He’s a stud, smacking 25-30 homers a year and driving in close to 100 runs. Then he moves to your park and suddenly flat lines; becoming a below average offensive player for your team. You’re left hold the bag, and you have no idea why.

The reason is because he played in a launching pad. His home stats dramatically inflated his numbers so that teams overlooked his lousy .611 OPS away from home.

Now to be fair, Hank Blalock is still a Texas Ranger and actually has done far better on the road this year. He’s gotten that OPS up to .746, though that’s still below average looking at third basemen this year. Thus should a team attempt to trade for a Ranger like Blalock, they need to remember the player’s home stats help inflate his totals. Such a practice has become common place when looking at Colorado Rockies, though ironically the pendulum appears to have swung completely in the opposite direction in that case.

Today we take a look at five guys who have performed drastically different at home and away this year. In doing so we’ll try to decipher which performance is closer to reality and which one looks like a fluke. As with most splits, the truth usually lies somewhere in the middle, however, to which side of the middle can mean the difference between a respectable 4.20 ERA and 4.70 one.

But despite the ERA example, we’ll start with a hitter. In fact this guy probably has seen the greatest fluctuation between home and road performances this season, at least for position players. And where his success has come is the main reason he may well be an underrated player by his team’s fans.

(Stats are from ESPN.com and through Saturday, August 12th)

Carlos Beltran, CF, New York Mets:

Away: .347/.426/.779/1.205, 199 AB, 22 Hr, 70 RBI, 46 R, 27/36 K/BB

Home: .220/.349/.462/.810, 186 AB, 11 HR, 28 RBI, 40 R, 37/37 K/BB

Far and away the best player in baseball this year away from Shea Stadium, Carlos Beltran has been your average centerfielder OPS wise at home this year. General thought says it’s mental and that Beltran is just pressing to impress the Shea faithful. But his K/BB suggests the opposite; Beltran has been more patient at home than the road having walked exactly as much as he’s K’d at Shea. Despite this, he’s hitting for an average which is 127 points lower than on the road and for far less power. That leads me to believe the problem is two fold; small sample size and Shea Stadium itself.

One would expect Beltran’s numbers to drastically improve at Shea in the final two months because there seems to be nothing wrong with his approach. On the other hand, his road numbers will probably continue to exceed his home numbers since Shea is a pitcher’s park. Currently, the Mets’ home ranks third to last for hitters, depressing homers by an .880 factor. (in other words a ratio of .88/1 home run ratio for Shea versus and neutral park) Bottom line; Beltran’s likely never going to be as good at home as he is on the road. But he should improve at home while slowing down somewhat on the road. Look for him to be in the thick of the NL MVP race the rest of the way.

Chien Ming Wang, SP, New York Yankees:

Away: 5.16 ERA, 66.1 IP, 24/20 K/BB, .321 Opp BA, 5 Hr

Home: 2.66 ERA, 94.2 IP, 25/21 K/BB, .227 Opp BA, 4 Hr

Chien Ming Wang is probably the most hotly debated player at Sportszilla, so much so that it seems as though Bryan and I are seeing two different pitchers here. Turns out, we are. Possessing absolutely the weirdest splits of anyone on here, Wang has been an ace at home and spot starter quality on the road. Why is this so strange? Because in Wang’s case, they defy reason.

Wang’s peripherals are the same home and away. Okay, we know with him that doesn’t tell the whole story because of his ability to induce the ground ball out. The problem is that Wang has a 3.43 GB/FB ratio on the road, with a lower 3.18 mark at home. Yet for some reason, he’s got opponents hitting just .227 off him at Yankee Stadium, while getting swatted to the tune of a .321 Opp BA on the road. Yankee Stadium has played pitcher friendly this year (23rd overall), but since Wang induces so many ground balls, that shouldn’t matter. A ground ball should be the same in most places, outside of artificial turf fields. But he’s had one good and one mediocre start on those.

Since the biggest difference for Wang lies in Opp BA and correspondingly on batting average on balls put in play (BABIP), we should look to see what number is closest to league average. His road BABIP .339 is versus a mark at home of .235. Unfortunately, that doesn’t give us much help because both are equidistant from the league average (.290 is roughly what BABIP should be). Wang isn’t a 5.16 ERA guy, but he’s no 2.27 guy either. Figure it balances out for an ERA in the low to mid 4.00’s (a number which Bryan probably still will take me to task for) especially since his Hr rate near .60/9 is likely unsustainable. But with the Yankees offense, that’s should be just fine.

Kevin Millwood, SP, Texas Rangers:

Away: 3.46 ERA, 80.2 IP, 63/14 K/BB, .278 Opp BA, 8 Hr

Home: 6.28 ERA, 67.1 IP, 33/24 K/BB, .305 Opp BA, 7 Hr

Unlike Wang, Millwood’s woes at home look easy to figure out. He’s walking more people while striking fewer out at the launching pad in Arlington. While his Opp BABIP is almost identical home (.326) and away (.328), since Millwood is getting more balls put in play against him at home, he’s giving up more hits. With the increase in base runners due to poorer control, that equates to a much higher ERA despite not having a much higher Hr/9 rate at home.

The perplexing thing about Millwood is to why he’s striking out less people and walking more in Arlington. Mental issues are hard to use as a justification for anything, since you can’t know what a player is thinking but that is the only satisfactory answer here. You could suggest other things like a better batters’ eye in Arlington, but that doesn’t explain why his BABIP is similar home and away. But then if this is in Millwood’s head and it’s as clear as looking at these stats, why hasn’t someone on Texas alerted him to that fact?

Millwood seems curable, but if this is mental, then there’s no guarantee he’s going to get better. The Rangers need to hope he does however; he’s in the first season of a five year deal, 60 million deal.

Byung Hyun Kim, SP, Colorado Rockies

Away: 6.85 ERA, 47.1 IP, 39/19 K/BB, .337 Opp BA, 8 Hr

Home: 2.75 ERA, 59.0 IP, 47/21 K/BB, .249 Opp BA, 3 Hr

Gah? I know Coors Field is playing close to neutral this year but this is ridiculous. For some reason Kim has been a very good pitcher at home and absolute garbage on the road. Coors is still allows more homers than your average park and Kim is a neutral pitcher, so it isn’t as if his homer rate is being depressed at home by some unholy ball doctoring. However he’s given up just three homers in 59 innings which equates to a rate of .46/9. That’s not going to last. Meanwhile his 1.52 rate on the road looks way too high. But what’s the deal with that Opp BA, especially when Kim isn’t striking out that many more batters per inning at home (8.06) than on the road (7.42).

Like Wang, this looks to be the case of two extremes. While Kim’s opp BA may not increase that drastically at home, his homer rate should. Meanwhile on the road the homer rate should fall a little, while his opp BA should fall a great deal. Overall Kim should have an ERA’s in the mid to low 4.00’s. Despite many notions and that horrific road ERA, he can be a serviceable major league starter in the league, a fourth starter type.

Vernon Wells, CF, Toronto Blue Jays

Away: .298/.365/.457/.822, 208 AB, 6 Hr, 29 RBI, 23 R, 22/33 K/BB

Home: .341/.391/.707/1.099, 229 AB, 21 Hr, 54 RBI, 43 R, 20/33 K/BB

Vernon Wells is not quite the anti Beltran, but he’s close. Wells has been hitting better at home consistently since 2004. That year he posted splits of .298/.371/.549/.920 at home while going .249/.306/.402/.708 on the road. Last season it was more of the same; at home Wells went .291/.346/.500/.846 versus a .248/.295/.428/.723 mark on the road. So at the very least one can say Wells is consistent at producing in Toronto.

But then it isn’t the average which is so amazing in the Wells’ splits. After all, if he has been a better hitter at home over the last three years and he’s a better hitter overall this season, then it stands to reason his home numbers would increase. But a .707 slugging percentage? Where did that come from? 147 in 2004 and 72 in 2005 are decent differences and something that can happen over the course of 230 ABs. But in 2006 the difference is 250 points! Even for an anomaly that’s high. So what’s caused this home power spike?

The Rogers Centre (formerly Skydome) plays close to neutral overall, but it’s been surrendering homers at a 1.38/1 ratio this year, which is second to Camden Yards. It’s hard to believe even with this increase Wells’ surge is solely the result of that, but it might well be. Consider that Troy Glaus has an .973 OPS at home and .853 mark on the road. That isn’t a terrible difference until you look at slugging. On the road, the third baseman has slugged .464 which is solid. But at home he’s slugged a phenomenal .622. That’s a 158 point difference. Lyle Overbay is slugging 203 points higher. Alex Rios’ mark is 112 points more at home. Isolated, we’d take these as flukes. But together it’s clear the Rogers Centre is inflating its power hitters’ numbers. Since this is the case, it’s hard to make an argument against Wells continuing his strong play this year, since it looks as though his average and on base splits reflect his career norms.

So opponents take note. Vernon Wells at home is an MVP candidate. On the road, he’s a solid player, but not one that’s going to kill you on a consistent basis.

There you have it; five players who have been seemingly feast or famine depending on where you face them. But as shown here that doesn’t mean all splits are created equal. Though Carlos Beltran is struggling now at Shea now, reason suggests he’s still the Met you want to avoid most when facing them, not David Wright or Carlos Delgado. And much like Hank Blalock last year, Vernon Wells is a guy who you can pitch to in big spots when he’s on the road. While it may not seem like much, pennant races and playoff games which can come down to one decision it can make all the difference.

Ladewski Out on Strikes

2006-08-11T15:16:00.000-04:00

Good read here over at at the Sporting Brews where Joseph Pawlikowski takes some rips Fire Joe Morgan style on Chicago writer Paul Ladewski. Ladweski blames the White Sox pitching woes on QuesTec, which if you didn’t know, has been a popular excuse for pitchers over the last few years. See Tom Glavine circa 2003 for further reference. Also you can google “Curt Schilling” “punch” and “QuesTec” Anyway, check it out.

When Sports Fail

2006-08-11T00:19:00.000-04:00

The recent news about disgraced former Ohio State running back Maurice Clarett has generated a number of different reactions. Some folks have expressed a fair amount of glee, while others have wondered what went wrong. In the end, the only question I see worth asking is "what can the decline and fall of Maurice Clarett tell us about sports, and America?"

Three and a half years ago he was completing one of the most breathtaking freshman seasons in college football history, capping it with a game-winning touchdown run in double overtime of the national championship game. Today, his future in football seems non-existant, and he'll have to struggle mightily to avoid a significant jail term. Along the way he's lobbed serious allegations at OSU, taken the NFL all the way to the Supreme Court, and proved that not all running backs can succeed in Denver.

Clarett's problems begin in a social setting in which professional athletics are seen as one of the few ways out of a lifetime of crime and poverty for many young black men. Couple that with the explotive nature of youth athletics, and you have a scenario in which a preternaturally talented young man such as Clarett learned quickly that as long as he kept scoring touchdowns he could get away with just about anything, whether it was in middle school, high school, or college. People would give him money, clothes, cars, and whatever else he wanted just to say that they were near him. Given that kind of treatment, are we surprised when Clarett (or many other star athletes) turn out to be less than stable?

I'm currently reading the fascinating book The Ticket Out: Darryl Strawberry and the Boys of Crenshaw, which details Strawberry's high school baseball team, perhaps the greatest collection of baseball talent in American high school history. For Strawberry (and his teammates), baseball was the golden ticket out of the ghetto: for Clarett, it was football. We've seen what the perks of being a star athlete did to Strawberry, and we're seeing the same forces at work in Clarett.

This isn't meant to exonerate Clarett. Ultimately, his choices, his behavior is his responsibility. But that doesn't mean that we shouldn't try to learn from his failures, to try and understand and prevent them. The first step is to create an environment surrounding youth sports which teaches kids that just because they can hit a ball farther, or run faster, or jump higher then their competition, it doesn't mean they know how to be a sucessful person. Besides, most high school stars don't ever make it to the professional ranks. Unfortunately, with all the money in pro sports there will always be kids (and parents) who have unreasonable expectations, and sleazy boosters, coaches, and others who will take advantage of that desperation.

The other step is to make sure that sports, and other long-shot careers (like music/acting/whatever) don't seem like the only way that poor kids can achieve. Again, this is a broad, idealistic suggestion, and I realize it. But the important thing to realize out of Maurice Clarett's life is that he's not some freakish anomoly...he's just self-destructed in public because he used to be really good at carrying the football. Until we as a society see that people like him are the products of our ignorance, our intolerance, and our apathy, we'll continue to see our current and former stars fall apart. While it might seem entertaining, it's mostly just sad.

The title of this post is "When Sports Fail," and I mean that. Sports failed Maurice Clarett. Being a star running back didn't teach him how to deal with failure, or adversity, didn't teach him how to live his life. From a young age he was told how great he was, and in many ways he remains that teenager, unable to interact with the world around him in a measured, healthy way. But unlike most of us, who grew out of that mindset (because we realized that things wouldn't be handed to us on a silver platter), Clarett remained warped: he expected his NFL millions to be handed to him (even a year or two ahead of schedule). Again, his choices to violate NCAA regulations and to take the NFL to court are his responsibility. But there's a much more complex explanation than that he's crazy. He worshipped at the idol of sports, and he learned that if such a god exists, it's capricious at best.

Remembering the Old, Rewarding the New

2006-08-09T04:07:00.000-04:00

If you’ve been following the New York Mets over the last week then you’ve no doubt noticed an interesting dichotomy as the team takes one last look back at their most recent glories as they move forward with their present success.

We start with the old, as I was lucky enough to be in attendance for Mike Piazza’s first game back at Shea since departing as a free agent this last off season.

For Mets fans, Piazza was the icon of the successes of the late nineties, the man who came oh so close to delivering the franchise’s first title since 1986. He also was the greatest player the Mets have had in their franchise since Darryl Strawberry was belting balls out into the right field bullpen. Furthermore, Piazza was the first Hall of Fame player the Mets had in his prime since the days of Tom Seaver. In fact, outside of Seaver, Piazza is the only one.

Before the start of this one, the Mets honored Piazza with a video tribute which has become oh so customary to do. The fans ate it up, myself included. No doubt they wanted to relive some of those home runs and see them one last time. For me, there are four I’ll always remember.

The fourth; the homer that capped the 10 run inning against the Braves. It was a regular season game, but it was an unlikely comeback against a hated division foe. The third, the shot he hit off Steve Karsay when baseball returned to New York after September 11th 2001. This one needs no explanation. The second was the lighting bolt he hit off Ramiro Mendoza in a Mets/Yankee game at Shea in 1999. It just rocketed off his bat so quickly even on TV you knew it was gone when he hit it. Hell, Piazza even flipped the bat, showing up Mendoza, something he never did to pitchers. But it was instinct and reflex, he knew he crushed it. And he had; it struck the tent behind the left field bullpen. When a power hitter is impressed by a shot of his, you know it’s something. And the first, as I’ve written about before, was the laser he hit when a less glorious Met returned to Shea in 2001, that the infamous Mike Hampton.

The ovation didn’t cease until the first pitch and started again when Piazza entered the on deck circle in the first inning. Some applause, like my own, might have been for Mike Cameron, who was returning to Shea as well, but most figured to be for Hall of Famer. They had to hold it in for a little while; Steve Trachsel somehow retired the side in order. But when the second inning rolled around, things exploded.

When Piazza stepped to the plate, he received the ovation he deserved. The stadium rose again clapping loudly throughout the at bat. Chats of his name could be heard throughout. As the camera panned to him as he walked into the batters’ box, one could almost see the smirk on his face. Even the always cool, collected and business like Piazza could not resist it in the midst of such fan appreciation. As I watched on that jumbo-tron screen, I couldn’t help but think;

“Come on Mikey, smile. You’ve earned that right.”

But business went on. Trachsel retired him, and did so throughout the game. Piazza would reach on a single before eventually being lifted in the 8th inning on a double switch. After his last AB, the crowd gave their hero one last standing ovation. I’m not sure one night of cheers and applause can sum up the way Piazza brought Mets fans to their feet over the years, but if it is in fact possible, then the fans certainly succeeded Tuesday night.

But while memories of the fun that was 99-00 are nice, the future is bright around the Mets as well. And it got even brighter this week when the team extended the contracts of David Wright and Jose Reyes past their first few years of free agency.

Many have criticized these moves for different reasons. Some believe the Mets are taking a big chance on Reyes, who is just a year and a half removed from serious leg issues and has just one season worth of success at the major league level. In Wright’s case the concerns are two fold; first that he received a much larger deal in the end than Reyes and that the Mets at the end of the deal committed 15 million to a guy who has had two years in the big leagues.

First with Reyes; the reality is that he would have to suffer multiple leg injuries that knocked him out for substantial stretches for him not to eventually get a deal like this down the road. In fact the Mets will likely get a bargain. Even if Reyes doesn’t get better from what he is now, a .300 hitter who steals 60 bases, gets 20 triples and 30 doubles a year with around 14-15 homers, as an above average defensive shortstop, the kid would make seven to ten million easily. But conventional wisdom says that at 23, he will improve, as does the fact he’s gotten better every season in the bigs. So if Reyes does become a 20 homer, 35 double, 20 triple guy with the ability to swipe 50 bases a year, that alone with get him 10 million. If his defense does become Gold Glove caliber as well, then we’re talking 15 million or more. Does that sound crazy to you? Well look at this guys’ age 23 season.

.291/.370/.405/.775, 10 Hr, 116 runs, 70 RBI, 23 SB, 31 2B, 7 3B

Now Reyes’ projected for the whole season:

.294/.350/.470/.820, 16 Hr, 135 runs, 76 RBI, 70 SB, 31 2B, 19 3B

Those who know me well can probably guess who that first player’s line is. I simply could not resist a comparison to Derek Jeter. The Yankees’ shortstop’s age 22 season was light years better than Reyes’ but Reyes looks to have the edge just a year later. This leads into the prior point; outside of 1999 and 2006, Jeter’s never posted an OPS above 900. If Reyes improves just slightly offensively, then he can be the player Jeter was for the vast majority of his career. If Jeter can turn that into a 190 million dollar contract, then the nine million or so the Mets will be handing Reyes at the end of the deal looks like chump change in comparison. Of course, should Reyes improve even further, then it will look, appropriately, like a steal. And even if Reyes does fall apart physically, then the Mets will be on the hook for a big payout at the very end of the deal. They can handle a one year loss in that case. All and all, it’s a risk that they could easily afford.

A similar situation exists for Wright, though his contract is even harder to question. In his first two and a half years in the bigs Wright has career splits of .305/.385/.547/.907. He’s 23 now and like Reyes, has improved every year he’s been up with the Mets. His improvement hasn’t been as drastic, but that’s because he already was a solid player when he got to the big leagues. As a result, it’s only fair Wright gets a larger contract than Reyes. While I believe Reyes will end up being the most valuable of the two, the Mets are paying extra for the certainty Wright provides them. He’s done it longer and doesn’t have the injury history Reyes has, thus he can make 15 million in the last year of the deal. Heck, if Wright was 26 and had put up these numbers the last two years heading into free agency he’d probably get 14-15 million on the market this year.

The other aspect which people seem to overlook because the Mets are a big market team is the financial certainty this provides them. Reyes would have been arbitration eligible after this season and Wright after the next. For those who don’t know, that’s when a player and a team both submit figures on what the player will be paid for the upcoming season. Should the sides not agree or compromise, the two sides head to an arbitrator and he (or she) decides who “wins” arbitration. The player is paid what the winning side offered. Now arbitration happens very late in the off season, so a large arbitration award can really mess up a team’s salary structure.

The Mets have greater room for this than the Royals, but they’re not the Yankees with seemingly unlimited funds. It’s a lot harder to throw 15 million at Barry Zito when you’re shortstop might end up making seven million the next year and your third baseman nine million the season after that. What if both in two years had surpassed the 10 million dollar range? The Mets simply could not say for sure what Wright and Reyes could cost in the upcoming years and that no doubt would hinder their spending in the future.

In locking them up, the Mets know for sure what the two will be on the books for. With the way the deals are structured as back loaded contracts, it allows the team to spend money in the next few years on free agents, while not having to worry about paying the duo big bucks until after Carlos Delgado, Tom Glavine and Pedro Martinez are off the books. A solid move by GM Omar Minaya, one of his best of the season.

Tonight the Mets won 3-2 to spoil Mike Piazza’s return. The player of the game? David Wright, who scored the Mets’ first run and drove in the next two. Marquee Met of days past, meet the marquee Mets of the present and future as Jose Reyes singled while swiping two bags off the old backstop. And so, Tuesday night was symbolic of the change in the New York Mets, a change which can be summed up quite simply as;

Mike thanks for the memories. Met fans will never forget you.

David and Jose, Met fans can’t wait to see what heights you can take them to.

Two Sides of the Same Coin

2006-08-08T05:06:00.000-04:00

When cyclist Floyd Landis was revealed to have taken PEDs during his now tarnished Tour De France victory, many people expressed a feeling of sense and outrage. They were shocked that a man who had seemingly come from nowhere to become the heir to the mantle of the great Lance Armstrong had in fact, cheated. This despite the fact that anyone who has the most casual of interest in cycling, (and casual is probably an overstatement for most, like myself) should know this is a sport so wracked with PED use it makes baseball look clean. So why, despite the realities of the sport, were people surprised to find out Landis was just another cyclist who doped up?

Perhaps people do like to believe in innocent until proven guilty here in America. Well unless the person on trial is Barry Bonds anyway.

How else can justify the difference in public perception from Bonds to the man Landis was made out to be; Armstrong? Armstrong achieved something historical, winning the Tour de France seven times, something that even exceeds Bonds’ home run record in terms of implausibility. Now when wracked with questions over doping and drug use, Armstrong fervently denies as Bonds has. Yet, unlike Bonds, he’s not universally hated, despite their situations not being all that different.

Neither has submitted a positive test. And that likely will never happen in either case, with Armstrong retired and Bonds likely using untraceable (at least to MLB testing) substances. There is merely anecdotal and circumstantial evidence for both men. In Bonds case, it comes from reports of steroid side effects, such as back acne, while his head has also grown in size. In Armstrong’s case, there have been accusations by foreign newspapers but I guess we only accept reports from papers that are located in the Bay Area. However, perhaps more importantly, a telling indictment came at the beginning of this year’s Tour; when many top cyclists, including Jan Ulrich, Armstrong’s number one competitor, were barred from competing.

Why is this telling? Well in a sport that is filled with users, where leading cyclists die from heart attacks at 35, it is hard to believe that Armstrong was exempt from using while completely dominating his competition. Perhaps it could have been rationalized that doping was rampant among those that couldn’t hack it with Armstrong. But once Ulrich went down, it became clear that PEDs went far beyond the likes of your average rider trying to get to the big boys; those big boys were using too.

So you’ve got four choices here; Ulrich wasn’t using while he competed with Armstrong, Armstrong is superhuman, PEDs aren’t what they’re cracked up to be, or Armstrong was using just like the rest of them.

The first is unlikely; if Ulrich was the favorite this year with no Armstrong, why would he suddenly resort to using? It seems as though he’d have tried them before to beat Armstrong. The second reason is just as believable as Superman himself, or Spider-Man and Wolverine for that matter. They make for great movies, but not realistic sports stories. (Seriously, can you imagine Wolverine applying a tag at second base? Talk about getting spiked…) The third reason even more improbable than the second; with the highly developed science that is PED development and use nowadays, it’s doubtful these drugs aren’t helping the athletes perform.

So that just leaves choice four, which is the most likely scenario; Armstrong was using. Let’s look at this rationally. If the whole sport seems to be doping and one guy dominates the sport like no other for an unparalleled amount of time, would you think that guy is clean?

Or how about another example; a great baseball player goes from never hitting 50 homers in a season to suddenly hitting 70 in a sport where PEDs are running rampant. Think something is amiss?

The sad thing is that what Bonds did is actually far more common than what Armstrong did. Believe it or not, career years happen in baseball. There are guys who went from all stars to zeros over the course of one year plenty of times in the history of the game, and there will be plenty more like them to come. There are also scores of good players who for one year put up numbers far beyond what their norms were. That my friends, is called a career year. They happen in sports, and they’re not always the result of PEDs.

That isn’t to say Bonds didn’t use; the circumstantial evidence is all there. But it’s there with Armstrong as well. So again I ask, why do people forsake Bonds, yet cheer Armstrong?

It can’t be because of their charming personalities; while Bonds is a jerk, Armstrong is by all accounts no nice guy either. This is a guy who, once hitting stardom, divorced his wife and ended up with Sheryl Crow. Um… sound sketchy to you? That sounds a lot worse to me than being uppity with the press core, whom you owe nothing. And yes, I know there are other stories of Bonds being a jerk, but most people don’t know them. They only are aware about his antics with the media, which says little to nothing about his actual personality.

Could it be the fact Armstrong was a cancer survivor? Maybe, but while I hate to even go there, I must. When Jason Giambi reportedly ended up with a tumor, and then in the wake of his Grand Jury testimony, what did people say? It was the result of his using. No one knows for sure, but it’s possible. Armstrong competes in a sport where everyone dopes. Isn’t it possible that his cancer was caused by using?

It sounds harsh, but I can only shift through the facts handed to me. If the reason is good for Jason Giambi, then it’s good for Lance Armstrong. Heck, ask yourself, if Barry Bonds developed cancer, or had a heart attack tomorrow or five years from now, what would you say? That he was unlucky? That life is tragic and that your number could be called at any time? Sure, some might say that.

But I’m willing to gamble 98 percent of you would say “Well that’s what happens when you take steroids. More proof he used.” And perhaps what’s even more disturbing is that there are some who would smile with glee over the passing of this man who they never met once. They hate him and yet, they don’t know why.

The truth is, the more one looks at it, the stranger it becomes. If as much common sense supports Armstrong using as Bonds or Mark McGwire, then how come there aren’t scores of people screaming to put an asterisk next to those seven Tour victories? If Lance Armstrong were to suffer a relapse of his cancer, or have a heart attack, some would suspect PED use. But most would mourn the tragic loss of a man they never met once. They love him and yet, they don’t know why.

The reason? The media.

The media sold Armstrong as an American hero in every sense of the ideal. He overcame long odds, handed to him unjustly. Yet he not only goes on to triumph over his seemingly invincible foe, but then wins a race that has been dominated by Europeans for years. And then he does it again and again. Over and over he conquers over those foreigners, those non- Americans, showing what country is the greatest. He exemplifies that “never say die” American spirit, and in the process that “take no crap, we’ll beat the hell out of you because we’re a superpower” ability. And that is the gift wrapped image Armstrong is made out to be. He sells the image so well, things like dumping his family for a celebrity are overlooked. His denials of PED use are tacitly accepted as he is trotted out on talk shows where they lob softball questions and is allowed to host made for TV award shows.

Why do people go along with this? Because the underlying message the media has sent from the very beginning with Armstrong has been that Americans are superior to everyone else. The French hate him because they hate America and how we passed them culturally, economically and socially as a world power. The same with the rest of Europe. So when Armstrong basically tells the world, “Yeah, I’m able to beat all of these guys who are cheating with nothing but my own god given ability and hard core American work ethic” the world snickers. But Americans eat it up because they want to believe it. They want that message the media has sent them to be true.

Floyd Landis’ greatest crime wasn’t cheating, but tarnishing that image. He made Americans question that air of superiority, and because the media had linked Landis to Armstrong already, Americans could not help but question their icon as well. But Armstrong will survive, because the message is too powerful in this day and age to die.

Barry Bonds has no such message. He doesn’t represent mainstream America. He isn’t proving anything except that he is arguably the best baseball player of all time. There are underlying racial tones here as well, but I will not go into them now.

In short, despite evidence being essentially equal in both cases, one man is a hero and the another a villain in the court of public opinion.

That is what I call hypocrisy. I’m sure that’s what Barry Bonds would call “America.”

The sad thing is, after reflecting on this, I can’t say I disagree.

It's Finally Carson's Time

2006-08-05T22:31:00.000-04:00

-Thirteen years in the National Football League
-One Super Bowl (1986)
-Selected to play in nine Pro Bowls, including seven straight (1982-1988)
-All-Pro (first-team) 1981, 1984; (second-team) 1978, 1982, 1984, 1985, 1986
-All-NFC (first-team) 1978, 1979, 1981, 1982, 1986; (second-team) 1978, 1985

It’s about time that Harry Carson got inducted into the Pro Football Hall of Fame. Two years ago, after making the final 15 candidates for the sixth straight year but not being elected by a panel of sports writers, Carson asked to have his name withdrawn from consideration. It’s like being told that you’re good but not good enough when your resume obviously screams Hall of Fame worthy.

Now while I’m too young to remember seeing Carson, my dad said it time after time. “Harry Carson was the anchor of that great Giants defense. It’s because of his instincts and ability to make the tackle that allowed Lawrence Taylor to run all over the field and pressure the quarterback. Taylor might be considered the greatest linebacker of all time and the man who revolutionized the position but if Carson was not there to back him up, Parcells would have the put the leash on him and made him play in position.”

And now finally, the waiting has ended and today, Harry Carson joined football immortality in Canton.