Betting in the blood

Summer break

2008-04-23T19:25:00.003+01:00

Due in ever increasing time restraints and a rapidly mobile 9 month old daughter, I've decided to stop updating BITB (Betting in the Blood) until the start of next season at the earliest.

It's sad to sign off on a losing month, but I hope everyone who has followed me in the past 6 months has enjoyed the journey. It's not over and I'll continue to bet, but at the moment I just can't justify the time needed to make the blog as good as I'd like.

Goodbye for now readers and stay lucky.

Bet 85: £100 DONCASTER to beat Leyton Orient @ Evens

2008-04-21T20:31:00.002+01:00

Running balance: £1,780.95

Post script: Not the fairy tale ending I had envisaged. Doncaster only managed a 1-1 draw and I'm back where I started on Friday morning. Shame really, as I had thought this was a standout bet, Orient has seemed to have given up for the season and Doncaster still had a chance for 2nd and automatic promotion.

Remarkably, this was the first ever game I had selected at Evens.

Bet 84: £100 LEWES to beat Dorchester @ 3/10

2008-04-19T09:06:00.005+01:00

Am actually going to this game today (ok, I'll admit this had a small part in the decision..........) and a win today and Lewes will win the Blue Square South and promotion to the Conference proper.

Dorchester also need a win, anything else and they are relegated. This should play into Lewes' hands, and I can see a comfortable win. Gone with Sporting Bet, the only outfit who were better than 1/4.

Going to have one further bet today, but I'll place this via Betfair Mobile after I've read the Racing Post on the train.

Running balance: £1,880.95

Post script: Well, I can tell you that the 2-0 final scoreline was no way as easy as it sounds. The first half was absoletly dreadful, Lewes are no where near the standard of the Blue Square Premier, and it was only because Dorchester was even more dire that they got anything out of the game. So two from two Saturday, now for that third game I discussed.........

Bet 83: £100 ARSENAL to beat Reading @ 4/11

2008-04-19T08:56:00.004+01:00

Arsenal are due to give someone a real kicking, and I fear it will be Reading this afternoon. Although the title has gone and they are now out of Europe, Arsenal have been playing well and were very unlucky not to beat United last weekend.

Gone with Paddy Power for the first time today, hoping for the luck of the Irish!!

Running balance: £1,850.59

Post script: As expected, Arsenal ran out very comfortable winners. A score line of 4 or 5-nil would probably have been more of a fair reflection.

Bet 82: £100 BURTON to draw or beat Stevenage @ 4/11

2008-04-18T21:59:00.003+01:00

Running balance: £1,814.59

Post script: Completed the Monolopy challenge in London today, I'm sure we've done it in a record time. Anyway, decided to lay Stevenage in this evenings game as they are hopelessly out of form, yet I wasn't sure of Burton's attacking intent, a draw wouldn't have been a bad result for them.

In the end Burton eased to a 3-0 win, so that's really helped my monthly winning average.

Bet 81: £100 CHELSEA to beat Everton @ 23/20

2008-04-17T21:41:00.007+01:00

Firstly, I apologise for again posting a main bet after the event. It's a strange thing but I have no confidence at the moment and it seems everything I put up here before kick-off goes pear shaped. I can guarantee everyone who reads this blog, that integrity for me is key to everything I do. I have and will continue to post losing bets if they happen (I think the last one was way back on Bet 27). Again, I placed this wager with Betfair. I like just asking for the odds in the morning and hoping to get matched at some point during the day.

Running balance: £1,779.44

Post script: A huge bet in terms of the months progress, a win has seen my losses reduce to only a touch over £100, a very recoverable situation. A defeat and I'm over £300 down and buried.

I thought Chelsea controlled the first half and deservedly took the lead just before half time. Second half Chelsea were again content to sit on the 1-0 lead, and in the end I turned off the TV and viewed the game via the fast forward facility on Sky Plus.

Bet 80: £100 WEYMOUTH to beat Droyslden @ 4/7

2008-04-16T20:30:00.003+01:00

Running balance: £1,663.54

Post script: Good bounce back from the Chelski disaster, although, as per normal this month, it was very tight at 2-1. This month it seems to be one step forward and then two back, but I'm really hopeful that I can still turn a profit. Although I'm really wanting to back anything at all at the moment, today I found nothing that I could classify as easy, and therefore have passed.

Bet 78: £100 CHELSEA to beat Wigan @ 1/4

2008-04-13T22:09:00.004+01:00

I can't see Chelski slipping up here (they may struggle away to Everton on Thursday, but that's another matter), although I've been burnt by Wigan before (Bet 30). Went with Boyle Sports for this one, the only bookie still offering the 1/4 price. I wonder how long that will last? (As I write this I see Boyle Sport have now gone 1/5, so they must have taken enough damage at 1/4).

A good friend of mine is returning to the UK tomorrow from Australia, and I'm off for a curry and a few pints, so I'll have to get score updates via the 'net on my mobile phone me thinks.

Running balance: £1,608.41

Post script: I can take no positives from this game at all, aside from the fact that Manchester United should win the Premier League now and win me back a little money.

Bet 77: £100 MAN UTD to win Premier League '07/'08 @ 19/50

2008-04-13T22:02:00.003+01:00

My first long term (well, there's not really that long left this season, but never mind) wager was placed prior to United's win against Arsenal with Australian firm Centrebet. This price is now available at 2/11.

I'll place this into the monthly P&L of the month in which the bet is settled (more likely to be May).

Weekend review; learning from school boy errors

2008-04-13T19:16:00.004+01:00

Running balance: £1,708.41

Right, I never like dissecting a losing session, let alone when it includes my worst ever daily loss. Well, as I write this, I'm feeling slightly lucky. Even though from 5 settled bets this weekend, I won 2 and lost 3 and am down £155.13. That is because Manchester Utd pulled off one of the biggest smash and grab performances I've seen this season against Arsenal, and instead of potentially being down £338.46 over the two days, I'm only down the aforementioned £155 and change. That result also saved me from the embarrassment of losing 3 consecutive £100 bets for the first time. Hat's off Arsenal, you gave a remarkable display despite being cruelly defeated in the week. You have to remember that a lot of the pre-season talk was of Spurs taking Arsenal's "Big 4" spot, and it being the end of an era with Henry departing to Spain. If Arsenal's notoriously tight board can find it in themselves to spend on one or two key players in the summer, I think they can challenge more seriously next year.

The real error of this weekend was obviously selecting 5 games yesterday, and not just the one as I usually do. It's gone against all the success I've had in the last couple of months and I quickly realised this was an error as soon as the games kicked off yesterday. Over the next couple of months, I'm going back to picking the one, strongest bet every day.

Ironically, if I had put this into place yesterday, I would have been ok, as the Palace v Scunthorpe game was the one I had felt most confident with (that's an honest admission, Neil Warnock knows how to get out of this division).

Looking at the three games I lost, there was two distinct errors I made:

1. With the Hull City and Southend selections, I made the mistake of putting too much emphasis on the home teams form only. Both these teams had been on fire of recent and both had moved into the play-offs after being in mid-table for most of the season. However both were playing teams who were showing a good bit of form themselves in QPR and Northampton. But I had dismissed this as they were both also in a position where they had nothing to play for, in regards to either promotion or relegation. Sadly it seems that both the home teams suffered with end of season nerves, whilst the away teams had creative license, as they were free from such pressure.

I realised this twenty minutes into Soccer Saturday, when both Hull and Southend were 0-1 down and struggling. Still, its good to pick this up now, as over the course of the next couple of months, this will be a key ingredient of many of the games I look at.

2. The Cambridge defeat was arguably down to a little bit of the above, with Stafford already down and little to play for. The key difference was that Stafford had lost 5 or 6 in a row and were in no form at all. The main error I made here was I made too much of Stafford's lack of form, and not enough on how Cambridge had been playing. If I had, I would have seen that, aside from their last 2 games, Cambridge had only got 1 point from a previous 12, and had lost recently to the woeful Farsley Celtic.

Having said that, I still think that Cambridge should have comfortably won this, so I wasn't surprised about Cambridge manager Jimmy Quinn stating after the game that he was disgusted with such an abject performance.

So, there we have it. Despite all the above and the three figure loss, I still think I have enough time to turn this around in the remainder of the month, so let's go onwards and upwards. Less greed, more research and focus on one selection a day.

Bet 74: £100 MAN UTD to beat Arsenal @ 5/6

2008-04-13T10:15:00.002+01:00

This bet replaces the original Bet 74, which was postponed yesterday. I will do a review of yesterday's disaster a bit later, when I have a bit more time.

Today's bet has gone with William Hill, and I fully expect a well rested Utd to blow away a spent Arsenal team.

Bet 76: £100 SOUTHEND to beat Northampton @ 3/4

2008-04-11T22:16:00.003+01:00

Final Saturday selection see me take on Southend, who have really been motoring in the last few months. They will be at full strength and are great value to beat a Northampton team who are just too far off to think about the play-offs. Gone with Sporting Bet for this bet, one of five bookies whom I remain unbeaten with.

So five games in all tomorrow, depending on who wins, I may need 4 for a profit, I may need 3. Should be an exciting Soccer Saturday!!

Bet 75: £100 CAMBRIDGE UTD to beat Stafford @ 2/7

2008-04-11T21:06:00.002+01:00

Added to my existing 3 selections for Saturday with what I consider an extremely probable home win in the Blue Square Premier. Cambridge are currently in the play-off positions and face a Stafford team already relegated.

Despite my recent defeat using Skybet for the unsuccessful Bet 66, I'm going back for some more of the same to try and get some redemption.

Bet 74: £100 AIRDRIE to beat Cowdenbeath @ 8/13

2008-04-10T19:52:00.002+01:00

Another strange price here, Airdrie are very strong at the moment, having just turned over newly crowned champions Ross County in mid-week. Cowdenbeath are second from bottom and have never beaten Airdrie before.

Bet 365 also had the best odds for this game, 8/13, I expect that to come in before kick-off.

Bet 73: £100 CRYSTAL PALACE to beat Scunthorpe @ 8/13

2008-04-10T19:48:00.002+01:00

Palace hang onto the last play-off place by the skin of their teeth, but they impressed me a lot in their 2-1 away win at Stoke on Monday. Scunthorpe are all but relegated after starting the season with just promise.

8/13 was available at Bet 365 and I've gone with this outfit for the first time in this blog.

Bet 72: £100 HULL CITY to beat QPR at 4/5

2008-04-10T19:40:00.002+01:00

First of three bets for Saturday I've put on early to ensure I get the best prices. I will 2 out of the 3 to come in to make a small profit, but I'm very confident on each of them coming in.

Hull City have been on fire in the Championship in the last couple of months, especially at home, where they have beaten Watford and Southampton by a combined score of 8-0 in their last two games at the KC. QPR, whilst improved in the last few months, should be outgunned here.

Got 4/5 with William Hill for this one.

Other betting blog developments

2008-04-09T19:56:00.002+01:00

Its sad to have to report that a couple of my favourite blogs seem to have taken noticeable set backs in the last week or so.

The Gambler lost a large and unspecified amount on the US horses (I can't understand why anyone touches these personally, but the Gambler always seemed to do OK at it prior to this latest disaster) and has packed in the whole gambling business. In its place, he has decided to write his memoirs, which are very readable. I would recommend you take a look. He seems to have gone back with gambling as of last night, you can never keep a good man down.

The Betfair Loser also seems to have lost a packet and has taken a break. Despite the name, the Betfair Loser seemed to do quite well, I guess any gambler is only a few bad breaks away from ruin. I do hope that I can use the blogging forum to ensure that I try to keep a level head, its never nice to write about the bad times, although I find its a good way to learn quickly.

Bet 71: £100 STOCKPORT to beat Mansfield @ 4/6

2008-04-09T19:41:00.004+01:00

Stockport have been on fire in League 2 and are now only 3 points off an automatic promotion spot. With back to back games against MK Dons and Peterbrough, they will want to secure as many points as possible in the last few games to avoid a repeat of last season, where they missed out on a play-off spot on the last game.

Picked up a price of 1.69 on Betfair, since when it has come into 1.65. That's the sort of price move I'm comfortable with.

Running balance: £1,863.53

Post script: Well at 0-1 in the first half, I got a distinct sense of deja vu (is that how you spell that?) from the Farsley game last night, especially when Stockport levelled fairly quickly. One thing which flashed through my head at this point was that a defeat here would have left me in a very similar position to where I was after Suicidal Sunday back in February. Strangely enough this thought filled me with a biziarre sense of confidence. "I've been down and out before and got out of it, and I'm bloody well going to get out of it this month!"

In the end it was Stockport who got the winner, and as a result, I'm now only down £16 instead of the £180 abyss I was staring down. However I've been pissing up my £100 internet fund up the wall, so I'm really closer to a ton down to date. Let's hope for some more inspired selections at the weekend.

Bet 70: £100 FARSLEY CELTIC to beat Droylsden @ 4/6

2008-04-08T19:19:00.003+01:00

Celtic have just pulled away from the relegation zone following a superb away win at Torquay. They will want to consolidate this tonight against the league's bottom team who are winless away from home, before taking on more challenging fixtures later this month.

My only worry with this bet is that the 1.55 price on Betfair yesterday, was available at 1.7 this evening (which is the price I took). Does someone know something I don't?

Running balance: £1,797.98

Post script: Sadly, greed seems to have got the better of me yesterday. I was happy just to play the Chelsea game, which on its own would have put me back into profit. But no, I saw the price move on the Farsley game and jumped into that one as well. The Betfair "brain" is seldom wrong, and its seems the price move was a very good indicator that Farsley weren't as much of a cert as I had originally thought.

The game itself was very even, and indeed the price I took wasn't representing good value at all, hopefully a lesson learnt.

Bet 69: £100 CHELSEA to beat Fenerbahce @ 3/10

2008-04-08T19:01:00.003+01:00

Have to admit that I fancied about 6 bets tonight, with Chelsea, Southend, MK Dons, Morecambe, Stockport and Farsley Celtic all looking good. Gone for two in the end, Chelski should have the fire power to blow away a Fenerbahce team who are very strong at home but struggle on their travels.

Plus I'm sure there will be a Chelsea v Liverpool Mk III in the CL Semi's. Got 1.32 with Betfair for the Blues, which will return a touch over £30 after commission.

Bet 68: £100 EVERTON to beat Derby @ 1/4

2008-04-06T17:05:00.006+01:00

Placed this whilst out with the family via the phone, but as blog integrity is key to me, I enclose a screen shot of the P&L after an unimpressive 1-0 win. Everton have been given a sight of 4th again when Liverpool only could take one point against Arsenal, and I was certain Moyes would have gotten his boys up for it. Derby are, well, how can I put this. Shite.

Took 1.28 with Betfair, which returned £26.60.

Running balance: £1,867.32

Bet 67: £100 CARLISLE to beat Yeovil @ 8/13

2008-04-05T11:44:00.004+01:00

I was going to go for Northwich today, but a brand new goalie for the home team, and the fact that I was slow out of the blocks getting a good price, means I'm going to pass. I'm going back to Carlisle, who have an incredible home record and are challenging for automatic promotion.

Whilst Carlisle tasted defeat in their last game midweek week against Nottingham Forest, they were very unlucky; hitting the post twice, dominating the game and then seeing Forest score twice on the counter. With a full strength team to choose from, I can't see Carlisle slipping up again.

Got a great price of 1.64 with Betfair (now only available at 1.61), which works out for around 8/13 after commission. The best anyone else could do was 4/7.

Running balance: £1,840.72

Post script: There's an old footballing cliche that over the course of the season, luck will even itself out. Well, I've had it even out over the course of 3 days. On Thursday, Exeter virtually camped inside Droylsden's penalty area without success. And today, I have to admit, I got very lucky, when Carlisle came from behind to beat Yeovil 2-1 with a 91st minute winner.

That's 2 games now I've won through a lasp gasp winner (the other being Bet 44 back in early Feb).

Bet 66: £100 EXETER to beat Droylsden @ 2/7

2008-04-02T10:36:00.003+01:00

Exeter are just 3 points off a play-off spot and will be going all out for a win here. Whilst Droylsden have actually improved of late, they only played on Tuesday and face a long trip down to Devon.

Running balance: £1,779.92

Post script: Well, it had to end eventually, and yesterday's 1-1 draw saw my run of wins come to a screeching halt. Exeter had 30 shots in the game, so I don't think it was a poor choice, you sometimes have games where the opposition's goal can become unbreachable. Exeter's goal only came about from the penalty spot.

What was more annoying was the timing of it, right at the start of the month leaving me in a £100 hole. At the end of March, such a loss would have easily been swallowed up, almost without notice. Just got to stay focused, pick one game at a time, and take a long term view of it all.

£120.08 to go until I reach £2,000

2008-04-02T10:02:00.002+01:00

If I can manage to get to £2,000, I will be moving up to £200 a bet. This will be a big jump, and its a shame its come so close to the end of the football season. I never like betting in August as it's hard to see where the strength is, and who is actaully a team to consistently back / oppose. It mean's that I will probably have to go for the Premiership Big 4, who I think are always overpriced by fearful bookies. The real value is further down the leagues, where there is not too much media attention.

I'm not too sure whether it will alter my betting patterns, at the moment my average odds taken is 1/2, and that's something which I'm happy with. What will happen for sure is that there will be bigger swings, both up and down.

A new month, some new changes........

2008-04-02T09:37:00.002+01:00

On the back of a highly successful March, I've decided to make an all important permanent change to my betting system. Last month I tried using the internet for the first time in order to get the best odds available. My main worry when using the net was that I'd lose value of what I was betting with. This hasn't been a problem to date, and as well as ensuring I get the best return possible, I have also managed to benefit from some free bets. What's also been good is the time saving. It does take a lot out of your day picking up money, taking it to the bank and then placing your next bet. With the internet its a much quicker process, and with odd comparison websites, you know straight away where you're going to get the best return.