I'm Betting On The Redd

That was the week....

2009-03-13T17:33:00.002Z

It's Friday again, and the end of an important week in the National Hunt calendar. The Grand Annual Chase has just finished, to bring the curtain down on another Cheltenham Festival. The highlight for me was to see Kauto Star reclaim his Gold Cup crown earlier today. I honestly did not think he would do it, and he made history by doing so, so one has to tip the old hat in respect. It was good to see Denman also back to form when finishing runner-up. Trainer of the week, obviously Paul Nicholls. And a record-breaking seven wins for Ruby Walsh puts him at the top of the jockey tree.

Daily members were given five bets to back at The Festival, and we enjoyed two winners in Wichita Lineman at 5/1 on Tuesday, and Chapoturgeon yesterday at 8/1

We didn't lay any horses at Cheltenham, which is par for the course as the races are typically very competitive and prices generally too high.

The VIP members had mixed results: on Tuesday we saw Celestial Halo finish 2nd in the Champion Hurdle by just a neck at 17/2 each way, followed on Wednesday by Petit Robin 3rd in the Queen Mother Champion Chase at 12/1 each way. Kasbah Bliss was a disappointing loser yesterday in the World Hurdle, and Star De Mohaison was the last of the finishers today in the Gold Cup.

These are the results for the week ending Friday 13th March:

Back-to-win bets
15 bets and 4 winners at 7/1, 6/1, 10/3, and 8/1
13 points profit

Lay-to-lose bets
4 bets and 4 winners
7 points profit

February newsletter

2009-03-05T08:59:00.002Z

The latest issue of my newsletter is now available to view online. The February edition includes a full summary of my results for February, an interview with Henry McAnenly, details of The Perfect punter Tipping Service, and much more....

CLICK HERE to read the February Newsletter

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Perfect Punter Tipping

2009-03-03T15:14:00.002Z

Sportsworld have just launched the Perfect Punter tipping service that looks very impressive.

You can read more by following the link below:

CLICK HERE to read about the Perfect Punter tipping service

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ReddRacing.co.uk web site down

2009-02-19T11:01:00.002Z

Morning everyone,

It's 11.00am and the web site appears to be offline temporarily. So here are todays selections:

Back to win:

Hunt 220 Lepido at 6/1
Ayr 310 More Like It at 5/1
Hunt 430 Rocky Ryan at 9/4

Lay to lose:

Hntg 01:50 Ravello Bay(3) at 8/11
Hntg 03:25 Son Of Flicka(3) at 11/4

Good luck if playing today

Quick On The Draw

2009-02-18T15:28:00.002Z

A new product has been launched at SportsWorld. It is a backing system by Steve Carter named "Quick On The Draw".

CLICK HERE for full details of "Quick On The Draw"

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Just Jaffa runs out of juice

2009-01-26T17:17:00.001Z

Ludlow, 1:10
BRUSLINI looked inexperienced when joint-favourite at Newbury on his hurdle debut after an absence this month, should put in a more polished performance here and looks the one to beat. The main form dangers are Moment Present and Tayarat, although the fairly useful Flat performer Torphichen would be very interesting if supported on his hurdle debut for a new yard.
Back to win - Bruslini Result: 2nd

Kempton, 2:05
LODGE LANE passed his first test over fences without much fuss and, to cement his position as a leading candidate for the RSA Chase at Cheltenham in March, he really needs to follow up. Au Courant, a complete unknown quantity, may give him most to think about.
Back to win - Lodge Lane Result: unpl

Ludlow, 2:20
MOONLIGHT MUSIC stepped up significantly on her previous form when narrowly beaten in gruelling conditions last time and may be able to defy a 7lb rise. The main dangers are Shes No Muppet and Ruby Crown, with Shiny Thing and Markila worth a look in the betting.
Back to win - Moonlight Music Result: unpl

Kempton, 2:40
Buffalo Bob and Lennox Gardens are novices that deserve a second look but Bob Buckler is enjoying a cracking month and his CLYFFE HANGER is interesting on the back of an encouraging return to action behind a well-handicapped winner at Exeter, where he would have collared Wychwoods Legend for second in another stride or two.
Back to win - Clyffe Hanger Result: 2nd

Ludlow, 2:55
FLIGHT COMMAND won in good style under todays rider last time and may be able to shrug off a 9lb higher mark. Chickapeakray and Antonius Caesar are feared most.
Back to win - Flight Command Result: unpl

Ludlow, 3:30
Atlantic Coast, Ballycarney and Faneuil Hall get weight from the previous winners, but it should take a fairly useful performance to beat the 132-rated TRAGIC REALM. Hunters Ploy is also hard to rule out.
Back to win - Tragic Realm Result: unpl

Kempton, 3:50
Pop Ahead may be able to build on his Leicester success if proving as effective back on softer ground, while Nemetan should be on the premises, but there are reasons to believe that JUST JAFFA is going to be best caught fresh and any market confidence would be particularly significant on his reappearance.
Back to win - Just Jaffa Result: unpl

Thursday horse racing summary

2009-01-22T16:34:00.001Z

Warwick, 2:10
RUSSIAN FLAG has no apparent attitude problems despite a recent bout of seconditis and on two occasions he's possibly just been outstayed over slightly further. His form looks solid enough and he gets the verdict over Mongorno and Amble Forge.
Back to win - Russian Flag Result: 3rd

Warwick, 2:40
Assuming he will jump more efficiently this time and reproduce his best form, RING THE BOSS looks the one to beat. Oh Crick still has a bit to prove regarding the trip/ground, though should be the main danger if he copes, with The Vicar having something to find despite receiving weight but no concerns with the conditions.
Back to win - Ring The Boss Result: WON

Warwick, 3:10
HEATHCLIFF unbeaten in two starts since joining Richard Lee, is taken to overcome another hike in the weights as he still hasn't had many chances at this sort of trip in handicap company and should have more to offer. Caipiroska, who scored in a canter when last seen over hurdles, is one to watch closely in the betting on his reappearance.
Back to win - Heathcliffe Result: WON

Warwick, 3:40
The progressive pair OSCAR JACK and Whitewater Dash stand out. Preference is for the former who wouldn't need to improve much on his latest impressive Taunton win to defy a penalty.
Back to win - Oscar Jack Result: 3rd

I'm having such a good time, I'm having a ball

2009-01-21T22:40:00.001Z

Musselburgh, 1:30
Elzahann has a brighter future than most here but she'll do well to give weight to the very capable DON'T STOP ME NOW, who boasts very solid win and placed form round here and hasn't finished improving yet.
Back to win - Don't Stop Me Now Result: WON

Musselburgh, 2:30
Market support behind Irish runner Commit To Memory would be significant but one that appeals more is capable Flat performer CASUAL AFFAIR, who made a nice impression on his hurdling debut here and has more to offer.
Back to win - Casual Affair Result: unplaced

Musselburgh, 4:00
Interesting to see how the market speaks about the likes of Alvarado, Hunters Belt and Nodforms Violet, but NOW THIS IT, Miss Keck and Red Onion all have solid placed bumper form to their name already. The Irish raider acquitted himself well against a decent Howard Johnson rival on his debut over C&D and gets the vote.
Back to win - Now This Is It Result: unplaced

Tuesday horse racing summary

2009-01-20T22:00:00.001Z

Southwell, 1:30
Bobski is best in on official ratings but with doubts about both his attitude and effectiveness on the surface, preference is for BLUE CHARM, who has held his form well during a busy spell this winter.
Back to win - Blue Charm Result: non-runner

Sedgefield, 2:20
Solid recent form is thin on the ground so IT'S BERTIE looks good having run well over hurdles and fences at Catterick in December, probably bumping into a well-handicapped rival on the latest occasion. Barton Sun would be competitive if rediscovering his touch, while Cooldine Lad is another to bear in mind with blinkers applied for the first time.
Back to win - It's Bertie Result: 2nd

Southwell, 2:30
Nightjar is respected as he tries to defend his unbeaten record on Fibresand, whilst it's too soon to be writing off Internationaldebut, but MAJURO's recent efforts look very solid and he looks sure to go well again.
Back to win - Majuro Result: No bet, advised price not available

Southwell, 4:00
Not easy to pin down quite what Cause For Applause achieved when running away with a C&D seller on New Year's Day and preference is for PAINT SPLASH, who was very strong at the finish when taking what looked a stronger 7f seller last month and has more to offer over this trip. Shifting Gold is better than he showed here last time and it will be interesting to see if the market expects a more prominent finish with Jamie Spencer booked today.
Back to win - Paint Splash Result: non-runner

Monday horse racing summary

2009-01-19T22:08:00.000Z

Wolverhampton, 3:30
Royal Encore is going to put her head in front at some stage and this looks a good opportunity, but it could be worth chancing BROUHAHA on his first start for his new stable.
Back to win - Brouhaha Result: WON

Hereford, 3:50
Catch The Stars must be monitored for market confidence and Cornerback is considered with vast improvement likely from her chasing debut but ANNIE'S ANSWER was a useful hurdler and should have good prospects of a winning bow over fences if she's fluent at the obstacles.
Back to win - Annie's Answer Result: unplaced

Friday horse racing summary

2009-01-16T23:26:00.001Z

Chepstow, 1:00
The betting should give an idea of expectations for hurdling newcomers Hollow Star and Prince Geeno, but CAST CADA has done enough to suggest he can win a race like this and could prove the best each-way solution.
Back to win - Cast Cada Result: unplaced
Lay to lose - Hollow Star Result: LOST

Catterick, 1:10
Several to consider and while Osolomio sets a reasonable standard, it might be worth chancing that REEL CHARMER takes to chasing at the first time of asking.
Lay to lose - Osolomio Result: LOST

Catterick, 3:55
There isn't much between National Heritage and Young Buddy on recent Newcastle form but, while both are entitled to improve, they are taken on with TWENTYNINEBLACK. Alan Swinbank has a tremendous strike-rate both in bumpers and at this course and his runner showed more than enough on his debut when chasing home a previous winner to suggest he should go close in this company.
Back to win - Twentynineblack Result: unplaced

Package fails to deliver

2009-01-15T16:56:00.002Z

Ludlow, 1:10
A decent seller with nine runners having an official mark of 100 or greater. SUN QUEST took a long time to get off the mark but clicked at the first time of asking for his new yard and can follow up, possibly at the main expense of Mad Professor.
Back to win - Sun Quest Result: No bet, value price not achieved

Ludlow, 1:40
Khyber Kim, with 9lb in hand on official hurdles ratings, is the obvious starting point but the stable form remains a cause for concern and he is taken on with ISN'T THAT LUCKY, who has the advantage of chasing experience.
Back to win - Isn't That Lucky Result: unplaced

Taunton, 2:20
BASEBALL TED is going the right way as a chaser and could well prove hard to catch at this level. Oscar Jack and Michigan D'Isop complete the shortlist.
Back to win - Baseball Ted Result: 2nd

Taunton, 2:50
Both Big Eared Fran and Paddys Honour are interesting but the two previous hurdling winners set a strong standard and this may lie between them. Preference is for BUSKER ROYAL, whose handicap form looks solid.
Back to win - Busker Royal Result: 3rd

Taunton, 3:50
Far too many "ifs and buts" to be confident about the outcome but if FINE BY ME is none the worse for his tumble a couple of months ago, he could prove the answer.
Back to win - Fine By Me Result: unplaced

Ludlow, 4:10
It may be worth giving another chance to ACORDEON, who has shown plenty of ability in two starts despite being a beaten favourite both times and who runs here in preference to a host of near-at-hand engagements over hurdles. Nicky Henderson has won this race three times since 2002. Double Dash, Scrum V and Scandal are the pick of the opposition.
Back to win - Acordeon Result: 2nd

Wednesday horse racing summary

2009-01-14T23:18:00.001Z

Newcastle, 12:30
It is a worry that NATURALLY INSPIRED disappointed on her only previous run on softish ground, but a lack of stamina over a longer trip might have been to blame and she's given the benefit of the doubt in a very poor race. Twilight Dawn is respected having at least won a race on the Flat, while given the quality of opposition any confidence behind Stormy Waters would be significant.
Back to win - Naturally Inspired Result: Meeting adandoned

Newbury, 12:50
MOUNT HELICON was a tad disappointing when turned over here in November but expect that experience to have brought him on and today's easier surface is probably a good thing, too. The team behind Bruslini won this with Detroit City three years ago and any market confidence behind the French import would need to be taken seriously, a comment that also applies to Optimus Maximus, representing another powerful yard.
Back to win - Mount Helicon Result: 3rd

Newcastle, 1:00
Nine De Sivola is proving frustrating in his quest for a first chasing win and could meet his match in the shape of the unexposed BOLD RANSOM who shaped really well on his chasing debut and will relish the return to further.
Back to win - Bold Ransom Result: Meeting abandoned

Newbury, 1:20
PLANET OF SOUND impressed here over Christmas and looks the solid option even though this race, assuming more of his rivals give their running, should be much tougher. Five of the others need to be taken seriously, with Greenbridge feared most.
Back to win - Planet Of Sound Result: WON

Tuesday horse racing summary

2009-01-13T17:08:00.001Z

Folkestone, 1:20
DOCTORED stormed clear in an amateur riders handicap over C&D last time and may be able to defy an 8lb rise. The main dangers look to be Prophete De Guye and Atahuelpa, although it would be no surprise if Drizzi got much closer to the selection than he did last time.
Back to win - Doctored Result: 3rd

Folkestone, 1:50
Look out for a better effort from Amir El Jabal, who ran much his best race over fences back from a break on last season's chasing debut when still in front when falling at the last in a Huntingdon handicap chase. However, preference is for LAHARNA, who won this year's renewal of that same Huntingdon race last time and, with a 6lb rise fair enough, will have very strong claims if reproducing that form in a lesser race here. Encouragingly, Laharna ran a good race in one previous run here too.
Back to win - Laharna Result: unplaced

Folkestone, 2:20
A handful of interesting runners, though couldn't be confident about the outcome with much depending on how the hurdles newcomers jump and how much improvement some of the lightly raced ones find. Psi and hurdles newcomers Ronaldo des Mottes and Gofannon are well worth considering but tentative preference is for SILK AFFAIR, quite decent on the Flat (including on soft) and who ran with some promise on last month's hurdles debut at Kempton.
Back to win - Silk Affair Result: no bet, value price not available

Monday horse racing summary

2009-01-12T22:41:00.001Z

Fakenham, 1:20
Carrickboy is an interesting prospect but not many fall into the same category in what looks an ordinary maiden and HAVENSTONE, with some good handicap form on the board, is hard to get away from.
Back to win - Havenstone Result: 3rd

Fakenham, 2:20
Rockiteer has the experience but is beginning to disappoint and may need to pull his socks up to repel some potential improvers. GABRESELASSIE, who should benefit for coming back in trip on better ground, gets a tentative nod ahead of Princeful and Vacario.
Back to win - Gabreselassie Result: 2nd

Wolverhampton, 2:40
Hard to get too carried away with some of these and AUTUMN MORNING, who won well here last month and who has run with credit in two subsequent starts, can make up for a slightly unfortunate effort here on Wednesday.
Back to win - Autumn Morning Result: unplaced

Friday horse racing summary

2009-01-09T21:28:00.001Z

Lingfield, 12:30
It looks like there may be jumps racing from Kelso today, but unfortunately I still find nothing I fancy backing. On the all-weather surface at Lingfield the first race is a 5f handicap. NICKEL SILVER has strong claims to the race, having won recently at Wolverhampton. However, Lingfield is a different surface and he has never raced here before, and I think that the price is much too short to back the horse, in a sprint handicap. So the value is to oppose him.
Lay to lose - Nickel Silver Result: Won

Kelso, 12:40
Not surprisingly the going is heavy after a period of snow and frost. This race is a novice hurdle over 2m. SIGNALMAN is the forecast favourite and certainly has the form to win the race. However, he is giving away 7lbs to all his rivals, and that may prove too much in the testing ground, so I am going to oppose him.
Lay to lose - Signalman Result: Meeting abandoned

Kelso, 1:40
This is a class 2 handicap hurdle over 2m. ISSAQUAH will be sent off the short priced favourite having won five of his seven starts. However, today he steps up in class, and is carrying an extra 13lbs since his last run. That is an awful lot of extra weight to carry in heavy going, and he will need to answer some big questions to win this afternoon.
Lay to lose - Issaquah Result: Meeting abandoned

Wolverhampton, 2:35
This is a lowly class 6 seller over 1m 1f on the all-weather. AHLAWY has won only three times in thirty runs, and has not got his nose in front since the summer of 2007, yet he is favourite for this race. Admittedly he is dropped in grade to compete today, but I don't see this as a reason he should be favourite, and in my opinion the value lies in laying bets against him to lose.
Lay to lose - Ahlawy Result: Won

Kelso, 2:40
This is a class 4 novice hurdle over 2m 6f. MOSCOW CATCH will be the favourite at around even money. He is stepping up in trip, and in the testing clay ground here at Kelso, and with the stiff uphill finish, this will require real staying qualities. He is too short to back, and I am going to lay bets against him.
Lay to lose - Moscow Catch Result: Meeting abandoned

Thursday horse racing summary

2009-01-08T20:37:00.001Z

Southwell, 1:20
Its been six days now since we had a jumps meeting because of the cold snap. Two more relatively low grade meetings on the all weather today, and I haven't been able to identify any opportunities to back a horse to win. But low grade racing often throws up good opportunities to lay horses to lose. This first race under the microscope is a class 5 maiden race over 1m 3f. Wing Diva is the forecast favourite but this morning MUSASHI is top of the market. He is still a maiden in his second season and after 8 races, and I don't see any reason why today will be his day.
Lay to lose - Musashi Result: Lost

Southwell, 1:50
This is a class 6 sprint handicap over 5f. HALAAK is the favourite for the race, but I am going to oppose him. He is strong in the market based on his comfortable win two runs ago. But that was a race for 2 year olds only and today he is mixing it with older and stronger horses. He also steps back to the shortest trip, and is unproven over this distance.
Lay to lose - Halaak Result: Won

Great Leighs, 1:55
This is another sprint handicap, this time a class 5 affair. SILVANUS is a short priced favourite considering he has yet to win in handicap company. His only win to date was a maiden race, so he has only beaten horses that had never won themselves. He has good claims on this race, but the price is too short compared to his realistic chances of winning, so in my opinion the value lies in opposing him.
Lay to lose - Silvanus Result: Lost

Southwell, 3:20
Another handicap race to finish, this time over 7f. Old faithful WHITBARROW lines up this afternoon and is favourite this morning, yet hasn't put his head in front for a dozen races and more than a year. He has not won over 7f.
Lay to lose - Whitbarrow Result: Lost

Tuesday horse racing summary

2009-01-06T20:50:00.000Z

Southwell, 1:10
This is a class 6 handicap race over a mile. RUN FREE comes to the track off of two wins in quick succession. However, he has been penalised another 5lbs since the latest run, and also steps up in trip today. I think he is too short and I shall be opposing him.
Lay to lose - Run Free Result: Lost

Monday horse racing summary

2009-01-05T17:44:00.001Z

Wolverhampton, 2:10
With the two National Hunt cards wiped out by the artic weather today, we are afforded entertainment by the all-weather meetings at Lingfield and Wolverhampton. The card at Wolves kicks off with a class 5 handicap over 6f for fillies only. This type of race is tends to produce surprises. It is low level fare, for fillies who can be unreliable at the best of times, and over a fairly short trip. In sprint races, any disadvantage from the draw, or a slow start, or getting boxed in, means the jockey has less time to regain the advantage. And so I am going to oppose the forecast favourite TRIPLE AXEL whose price seems a little short and offers better value to lay in my opinion.
Lay to lose - Triple Axel Result: Meeting abandoned

Lingfield, 2:15
Another low level handicap, again contested over 6f. FANTASY FIGHTER is priced at 2/1 which suggests he has a one-in-three chance of winning. However, I think there are five other horses with claims on this race, and so I rate the chance of Fantasy Fighter more like one-in-six and so he should be priced around 5/1 In which case, I prefer to lay him to lose as his price is too short compared to his actual chance of winning.
Lay to lose - Fantasy Fighter Result: Lost

Wolverhampton, 2:40
This time a class 6 selling race run over a mile distance. Golden Bishop is the forecast favourite, but also likely to be near the top of the betting is REDARSENE The horse has returned just one win in eleven starts, and the fact that he is entered in such a low level race suggests a lack of confidence. Although he has won in handicap company that was six months ago so I don't see why he should be such a short price, and I shall oppose him today.
Lay to lose - Redarsene Result: Meeting abandoned

Lingfield, 2:45
This race is a class 5 handicap over 6f. Hellbender is the forecast favourite but my preference is for ROMANTIC QUEEN She comes here off the back of a win over the distance, and looks fairly treated so she should go close.
Back to win - Romantic Queen Result: unplaced

Wolverhampton, 3:40
This is a class 5 maiden over 7f. Rebel City is the likely favourite but I am siding with DUKE OF NORMANDY who showed improvement on his last run, and should strip fitter today at a value price.
Back to win - Duke Of Normandy Result: Meeting abandoned

Bahia draws a Blanca

2008-12-30T19:06:00.002Z

Today's Analysis:
Taunton, 1:10
This is a class 3 novice hurdle for mares only and raced over 2m 3f, and today the going at Taunton is officially soft. Over Sixty will be the red hot favourite for this race, but at a prohibitively short price. I am going to play the odds in our favour and go for BAHIA BLANCA at a double figure price. She competed in a similar race earlier this month, and should have benefited from the run.
Verdict:
Back Bahaia Blanca at 12/1 (13.00) Result: unplaced

Taunton, 2:50
A class 4 handicap chase over 2m 7f. The forecast favourite is Iris's Prince but my preference is for the forecast second favourite ENROBLIM TROP He comes here off the back of a win under similar going at Folkestone at the beginning of the month.
Verdict:
Back Enroblim Trop at 9/2 (5.50) Result: unplaced

Taunton, 3:25
Bumper races are typically unreliable as betting heats, with little form history to draw upon. If you do decide to play, often it is useful to see how the market is shaping up before making any final decisions. Pepe Simo from the Paul Nicholls yard will probably be odds on favourite this afternoon, which is ridiculously short with so many unknowns in the field. Instead, I shall go for PIPE BANNER for a bit of value.
Verdict:
Back Pipe Banner at 11/4 (3.75) Result: 2nd

Monday horse racing summary

2008-12-29T16:09:00.003Z

Musselburgh, 12:10
This is a class 5 maiden hurdle run over 2m 4f and the going at Musselburgh today is described as good to firm. Broadway Star is the likely favourite but my preference is for FORTYSECOND STREET He has had a run in public to get used to the race day atmosphere, and he will have come on for that run, and Howard Johnson has a good record at this track.
Verdict:
Back Fortysecond Street at 5/2 (3.50) Result: WON at 11/4

Newbury, 12:30
A class 3 novice chase, and the going today at Newbury is described as good to soft. PLANET OF SOUND has won at this level over hurdles, and returned a solid performance in his chasing debut at Sandown last month.
Verdict:
Back Planet Of Sound at 2/1 (3.00) Result: WON at 13/8F

Musselburgh, 12:45
Snowy is likely to be sent off the favourite for this class 4 handicap chase over 3m. However, I think it may be worth siding with OH YAH DANCER from the Nicky Richards yard. He is well treated based on his hurdles form, and if he can take to fences he will be a contender at a decent price.
Verdict:
Back Oh Yah Dancer at 13/2 (7.50) Result: unplaced

Newbury, 1:35
Despite only five runners this chase promises to be very competitive. Gone To Lunch will probably start as favourite, but I am going to look elsewhere in the field for the winner. Trigger The Light is tempting but I am going for MR POINTMENT He finished runner up in a class 1 chase recently, so I'm hoping he can take this class 2 race this afternoon.
Verdict:
Back Mr Pointment at 7/2 (4.50) Result: 2nd at 3/1

Newbury, 2:10
This is a class 2 hurdle race over 2m. Dave's Dream will probably be the market choice but I am plumping for CHINA GOLD saddled by Alan King. He shaped well in a class 3 maiden race last time out, and although today's race represents a step up in class, Alan King knows how to ready his horses.
Verdict:
Back China Gold at 4/1 (5.00) Result: 2nd at 9/4

Newbury, 2:45
This is a Grade 1 novice hurdle over 2m 5f and looks to be between Diamond Harry and MASSASOIT The morning prices show the market is heavily in favour of Diamond Harry, and it looks like he will go off at odds on. I am going to take the resultant value as the price on Massasoit is pushed out.
Verdict:
Back Massasoit at 5/2 (3.50) Result: unplaced

Newbury, 3:15
This is a class 3 novices handicap chase over 2m 6f. The two that take my eye are Calusa Caldera and NORTH ISLAND and I shall nominate the latter because after winning his chasing debut he is well treated compared to his hurdle form.
Verdict:
Back North Island 7/1 (8.00) Result: unplaced 9/2

Musselburgh, 3:30
This is a class 4 handicap hurdle over 2m. Kyber from the Jim Goldie yard will likely start as favourite, but I am looking further down the field at a horse called MASAFI saddled by Howard Johnson. He is dropping back in class today, and I think a race such as this is within his compass.
Verdict:
Back Masafi at 9/2 (5.50) Result: unplaced

Newbury, 3:50
Silver Blondin is the forecast favourite for the bumper, but my preference is for CHAPOLIMOSS ridden by Robert Thornton. The price seems good value to me for a horse from a yard that knows how to produce horses for National Hunt Flat races.
Verdict:
Back Chapolimoss at 7/1 (8.00) Result: unplaced

Sunday 21st December

2008-12-21T16:56:00.002Z

Carlisle, 12:50 Skippers Brig lines up for a class 3 novice chase over 2m 4f in heavy going. He won his chasing debut at this course last month, in similar conditions, so deserves his place at the top of the market. Verdict: Back at 9/4 (3.25) Result: Won at 15/8

Carlisle, 1:25 This is a handicap chase over 3m. Nelliedonethat is the likely favourite. He has yet to win over fences, and has been put up 3lbs since his latest run. I think the heavy going and the extra weight will prove too much for him. Verdict: Lay at 11/4 (3.75) Result: 2nd at 9/4JF

Carlisle, 1:55 Another handicap chase, this time over 3m 2f. Royal Mackintosh will probably be sent off the favourite. So far his winning form is a couple of class 4 chases in novice company, so a win today would represent a career best performance. I would be tempted to lay him to lose at a short enough price. Verdict: Lay at 6/4 (2.50) Result: Won at 13/8F

Carlisle, 2:25 This is another handicap chase, and this time for mares only. Rosie All Over will be a short priced favourite and considering she has not won in this level of company before, over hurdles nor fences, I think the value would be to oppose her. Verdict: Lay at evens (2.00) Result: Lost at 6/4F

Carlisle, 3:00 Deuteronomy contests this handicap chase over 2m 4f. He has the form in the book to win this kind of race so is worth a punt. Verdict: Back at 9/2 (5.50) Result: Lost at 7/2

Carlisle, 3:30 To conclude an afternoon of handicap chases, yet another handicap chase! Nicozetto won last time out, and can handle heavy going. I am a little concerned about the sharp trip, as he has been contesting races up at 3m of late. But he could prove good value. Verdict: Back at 6/1 (7.00) Result: Lost at 11/2

Account Bets:
Carlisle 3:00, Deuteronomy: back to win at 9/2 (5.50) or better
Carlisle 3:30, Nicozetto: back to win at 6/1 (7.00) or better

The Prize Lay

2008-12-03T12:43:00.002Z

Sportsworld have just released The Prize Lay a new laying system.

For more details visit the SportsWorld website at the link below:

CLICK HERE for more details on The Prize Lay system

I picked the right Charlie

2008-12-02T20:41:00.003Z

Another solid performance today, and just over 2 points profit to show for my efforts. My first selection didn't reach my advised price, so goes down as a 'no bet'. This was followed by a losing bet, but happily I finished the day with a winner at Southwell. You would be skint following Charles Parnell blindly, but he was back down to a winning mark today in a class 5 handicap. Today's race was particularly weak, and was never going to take a special horse to win, and at better than 3/1 I thought his price was representing good value. He followed up his recent second with a win today, and ensured I returned a profit for the day.

Profit so far this month: 10 points
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I'm definitely not Bleu

2008-12-01T17:30:00.003Z

A good start to a new month, with both the back-to-win account, and the lay-to-lose account returning a profit. This morning I suggested three horses we should back, and two of them duly went on to win. First up was Don't Be Bleu at Folkestone. Making his chasing debut, he had three wins at this level over hurdles, so I felt a price of 2/1 was ample if he could only translate his hurdling ability to fences. It was a good choice as he came home the winner. This was followed up by SingleB winning at Wolverhampton.

I proposed just the one lay bet today, namely the race favourite Dayia in the 3:40 race. The horse lost, and presented me with another 4 points profit.

Total profit so far this month: 8 points
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