In-Between Hops

Lost for Weeks

2009-05-19T05:39:00.005-05:00

I've been trying to estimate in my head the impact of losing Rickie Weeks for the rest of the season. Spinning around the radio dial yesterday I heard the words "horrible" and "devastating loss." Clearly, losing Weeks is not good news for the Brewers. He was having an All-Star season and his improved play has obviously played a part in the Brewers success. On the other hand, losing Weeks does not all of the sudden turn the Brewers into the Washington Nationals. So what is the impact really?

I know there are formulas that turn every last statistic into wins and losses, and one could use those to calculate how many wins Rickie would generate over a replacement level player. That's not what I'm trying to do. I am trying to figure it out using only logic and common sense - sort of a cocktail napkin calculation. Suppose then that to start the discussion you say that losing Rickie Weeks will cost the Brewers five games in the standings this year. Is that a fair estimate?

Suppose that with a healthy and productive Rickie Weeks, the Brewers are a 90-win team. Suppose also that the Washington Nationals are a 60-win team. Forget for now that the Nationals have Ryan Zimmerman and Adam Dunn. Let's just think for them as a team of replacement level players, because even with Zimmerman and Dunn, that's basically what they are. That means that with a healthy and productive Weeks, the Brewers are 30 games better than the Nationals. To whom then do you attribute those 30 wins?

Well, if you say that Weeks is worth five, don't you have to say that Braun and Fielder are worth at least seven each? Trevor Hoffman and Yovanni Gallardo would also have to be worth seven. Right there with those five players we're up to 33 wins - without giving any credit at all to anyone else. It's safe to say then that the impact of losing Rickie Weeks is something less than five games in the standings. It's probably less than four because you run into the same math problems with that number too. In the end, I think three would be a good guess - that Rickie Weeks represents about one-tenth of the difference between the Brewers and the Washington Nationals.

I think we tend to overestimate the impact of any one player on a team. We look at the Brewers' record since Trevor Hoffman is off the DL and attribute all of that success to him. While some of it is, there have been a lot of other things happening May that weren't happening in April. It's not all Trevor Hoffman. Neither has it been all Rickie Weeks.

Now, the three games that the Brewers lose with Weeks may well mean the difference between making the playoffs or not. But with Weeks out, maybe Mat Gamel will come along and chip in a win or two. Maybe Manny Parra will chip in one. And of course maybe a lot of other bad things could happen too. The point is that if the Brewers fail to make the playoffs this year it will not be only because they lost Ricke Weeks.

30:30 Vision

2009-05-12T22:13:00.002-05:00

Over the off-season I argued that the Brewers had a reasonable chance to become the 12th team in Major League history to have four 30-home run hitters. After shooting my mouth off like that, I'm obviously going track it and point out the accuracy of my prediction at the most opportune times. Tonight is one of those times. The Brewers currently have four players who are on a 30 home run pace - Braun (39), Weeks (39), Fielder (34), and Cameron (34). J.J. Hardy (25) is just a tad off the pace. Corey Hart (15) and Bill Hall (15) could get back in the game with just a couple of long balls.

The Defense Rests

2009-05-09T23:20:00.003-05:00

In Saturday night's Brewers-Cubs game, there were 40 walks plus strikeouts - 20 on each side. Going back to 1970, I can only find five 9-inning games with more than that:

7/10/1997, Philadelphia at Florida - 45
5/4/1975, Houston at San Francisco - 43
4/17/1986, Texas at Milwaukee - 42
9/10/1998, St. Louis at Cincinnati - 41
9/18/1995, Florida at Philadelphia - 41

There were four other games with 40.

Halled Away

2009-05-04T17:39:00.002-05:00

Before tonight's game even starts. I'd like to go on the record to say that I don't agree with the switch of Bill Hall to left field. Just based on observation, it seems that Hall has saved a bunch of runs this year with his glove. This move, to me, weakens them defensively more than they would be hurt offensively by playing Duffy, a rather good fielder, in left. I hope the game isn't decided by a ground ball down the third base line that Bill Hall kicks around in the corner.

Substitutes

2009-05-02T06:13:00.005-05:00

I've noticed something a tiny bit odd about Ken Macha's lineup selection. So far this year, not counting Mike Rivera playing in place of Jason Kendall, on eight occasions Macha has sat one of the regular starters (Hall 2, Cameron 2, Hardy 2, Weeks 1, Hart 1) . Five of those eight times have been in games when Manny Parra is the starting pitcher. That's a bit disproportionate to what you would expect.

I don't know if that's enough yet to call it a trend or if it has any significance. I don't know if it has anything to do with the fact that Parra is 0-4 or that the Brewers are 0-5 when he starts. I was just something I noticed and thought I'd go count. I'll keep any eye on it and see if it continues.

Still Here

2009-05-02T06:06:00.002-05:00

I know there are a small handful of people still checking in. I'm still here. I've been busy creating a new online database system for my fantasy baseball league and working on a couple of rather involved baseball research studies, which together have been consuming about 95% of the 12 hours a day I feel I can devote to baseball. The database system is in place and working fine. That should free up a little more time for In-Between Hops.

I Want Barack Obama to Fail

2009-03-04T15:40:00.005-06:00

Rush Limbaugh opened a hornet's nets just before the Presidential Inauguration by proclaiming that he wanted Barack Obama to fail. Many in the media took the comments to mean that he wanted the economy to fail and wanted America to fail. Limbaugh reiterated that it was not the case that he wanted the country to fail - only that he wanted Obama to fail in furthering his political agenda. And so they've been bickering back and forth ever since.

I was arguing this very point today with a friend of mine and offered up the following analogy which I think clarifies Limbaugh's position. Suppose that it were reported in the media one day that Doug Melvin were in negotiations with Barry Bonds' agent for him to sign a contract with the Brewers. Some Brewers fan would welcome the news with open arms. Afterall, these are the Brewers, this is Doug Melvin, they have drunk the Kool-Aid and agree with anything that Doug Melvin and the Brewers do just because they are Doug Melvin and the Brewers. They never question. Never second guess. It's a violation of their fan-hood to disagree with anything the Brewers do.

You on the other hand, are a thinking fan. You feel that signing Bonds would be ruinous to the Brewers. You feel he would be a distraction, a disruption, and isn't that good of a ballplayer anymore. He would take playing time away from a younger, developing player and cause disharmony in the clubhouse.

So, do you want Doug Melvin to fail?

Yes. You want him to fail in his attempt to sign Bonds. But that doesn't mean that you necessarily want other things he attempts to fail (unless he's thinking of signing Roger Clemens too.) It certainly doesn't mean that you want the Brewers team or organization to fail. To say that you want Doug Melvin to fail does not mean you are no longer a fan of the Brewers. Quite the opposite. You recognize that there is a distinct difference between wishing for an entity to succeed and wishing for the person running that entity to get whatever he wants. You also have enough conviction to not sit idly by while someone is flushing an organization you love down the sewer under the guise of leadership.

Isn't baseball great? It casts light on everything.

A-Roid

2009-02-21T20:05:00.005-06:00

I need to give credit to poster Chris at Bill James online for this suggestion, but it's a great point.

Bud Selig is clearly very upset about Alex Rodriguez' admitting steroid use. So much so that he suggested considering reinstating Hank Aaron as the home run champ. Why now and not two years ago when Bonds broke the record? You see, A-Rod held a very important card in Bud Selig's legacy. He was ultimately going to be the solution to the conundrum of Barry Bonds. Bonds as home run champ does not sit right with anyone. But Rodriguez was quickly approaching and likely would have passed Bonds' mark in a few years. Had he been 'clean' that would have, in an odd way, exonerated Selig for the whole steroid mess. Now, no matter what, Selig will go to his grave with a steroid user as the home run champ - the record that the man in baseball he admired most once held. Pretty heavy stuff.

Macha vs. Kendall - Round 2

2009-02-17T07:16:00.004-06:00

Back when Ken Macha was hired, I commented that I had a negative initial reaction because of an apparent history of bad blood between him and his players. One of the players from whom he took a verbal right hook was Jason Kendall.

"I don't want Billy to take heat for this [Macha's firing] because this is what needed to happen''

Well, now Macha has not so elegantly informed Jason Kendall, via the media, that his playing time is going to be cut this year.

“That would keep Jason fresh so that when we get to crunch time, he’s got some gas left,” said Macha. “I could see him getting at least one day off a week. He’s not going to be happy about it. That’s just too bad.”

"That's just too bad."?!?!? No word from Kendall yet. We'll see if he swings back.

I'm telling you, I don't like it. There are a lot of pouters on this team. A manager who's this cold to the players has got to be enough of an a-hole to back it up and Macha doesn't seem to be. I'm worried this isn't going to work.

Buy Low

2009-02-06T10:29:00.002-06:00

It would seem that right now would be the ideal time for the Brewers to sign Ben Sheets. Crazy? Think it through. With Sheets unable to pitch, the Brewers hold all of the cards. If any other team signs him, even to a multi-year deal, they will give up draft picks before he even throws a pitch. Nobody is going to do that. The Brewers obviously wouldn't give up picks by signing him so they have least to lose.

Suppose they sign Sheets now for a 2-year deal - maybe $2M this year and an incentive laden deal for 2010. They would settle the dispute over who pays for his surgery and avoid any PR fallout. They would potentially have him back for a pennant run in September and they would have him under contract in 2010, when they could either trade him or earn back the free agent draft picks. Sure, it's a roll of the dice, but it has a big upside.

Who knows - maybe they could bring him back next year as the closer. That might be a role better suited for his fragile body.

Solving the SP Shortage

2009-02-05T18:00:00.001-06:00

Last season the Brewers went into spring training with eight pitchers considered contenders for the starting rotation. The talk was all about who makes it and with whom you must part ways. Times were good.

This year all the talk is about whether the Brewers can afford to sign another starter. Or more accurately, whether they can afford not to. They go into the season with only two true veteran starters and one of those two on the fringe of acceptability. The fifth starter, Seth McClung, really isn't a starter and really never was. The top two in the rotation are very young and very susceptible to being overworked. It is becoming apparent that the payroll will not support another MLB caliber pitcher. What's a team to do?

The In-Between Hops Plan:

A four man rotation: Gallardo, Parra, Bush, and Suppan
Limit the starters to 5 IP per start - no exceptions
Pick 3 relievers - Villanueva, McClung, and Riske would probably do - to pitch three inning stints - the 6th through 8th innings of every game - on a regular rotation
A closer for the 9th - Hoffman
Four or five extra relievers for various miscellaneous and mop-up roles

Let me pick this apart. Item 1: Any four-man rotation looks better on paper than the same four guys and a marginal fifth starter.

Item 2: They key to avoiding overwork - and this is key - would be to limit the starters to five innings per start; no if's, and's or but's. You take them out even if they're throwing a no-hitter. This is about the season; not about a single game. They're probably going to give up a hit next inning anyway. You get them out of the game while there's still some gas in the tank rather than wait until they run dry. You do it with your car. You do it with your starting pitchers. It will make for a shorter recovery period for their next start in four days.

There are 162 games in a season. Suppose that in two of those games, because of double headers or whatever, you use a spot starter. That leaves 160 games, divided four ways - 40 starts each. With a strict five inning limit, the cap on the number of innings from any starter would be 200. Most likely it would be less because they won't always make it to the fifth, will miss a start here or there, or the schedule dictates that you use a spot starter more than twice. That brings them all in around 180 innings; probably a decent workload.

The starters will still get most of their wins - (valuable things to have when salary negotiation time come around) - because they are pitching through the fifth inning. The couple they'd lose by leaving games early would be made up for by the eight extra starts each would get.

Item 3: This strategy would create a new role for three relievers. They would each pitch (or hope to pitch) a three inning stint every third day on a regular rotating schedule. They would know which days they are pitching and could prepare for the games both mentally and physically in much the same way a starter would. Because they would each only pitch in one game of a three-game series, the opposition would not have the luxury of seeing them twice. (And in fact, would have to scout and prepare for seeing a significant number of innings from six different pitchers, not just three.) Three innings every third day works out to 162 innings on the season at most. Probably 120-130 would be realistic. Seth McClung and Carlos Villanueva seem fully suited for a role like this. This role could also be used as a transition to and from the starting rotation or to and from the bottom of the bullpen. I'm thinking Chris Capuano here. Jeff Suppan if he struggles. Mitch Stetter if he pitches well.

Item 4: No change in the closer's role. You still have Hoffman for the ninth.

Item 5: These are your mop up guys. You bring them in in the 4th or 5th if the starter struggles, in the 7th or 8th if the middle relievers struggle, or at the end of the game to clean up a mess.

The beauty of this plan is that every pitcher on the staff would have a clearly defined role. You would have an automatic system to limit Gallardo's and Parra's innings, yet get eight extra starts out of each of them. The workloads of the relievers would be spaced out much more evenly over the course of the season. You would have three pitchers at the ready to jump into the starter's role if needed with very little change in preparation or workload, and four pitchers at the ready to jump into one of the middle relief roles. There would be a lot less throwing up in the bullpen (old Jerry Coleman joke). With clearly defined roles, there would be very few wasted warm-ups. The games would go faster with fewer pitching changes. Finally there's economics. An extra middle reliever to fill the spot opposite McClung and Villanueva would costs much less than an extra starter. Everybody wins.

"There's a Basic Disagreement About Corey's Value"

2009-02-03T18:40:00.004-06:00

Corey Hart appears to be heading to a salary arbitration hearing. The Brewers are offering $2.7M while Hart is asking for $3.8M. Here may be a key piece of evidence:

	Curtis Granderson	Corey Hart
	2004-2007	2004-2008
Yrs	4	5
AB	1395	1412
R	232	203
H	390	391
2B	76	93
3B	36	18
HR	50	55
RBI	162	212
BB	131	86
K	366	278
BA	0.280	0.277
OBP	0.343	0.323
SLG	0.493	0.485
SB	35	53
2009 Salary	$3.5M

Granderson's salary is part of a 5-year deal that tops out at $13M in 2013.

A key part of arbitration hearings is a comparison to similar players. Add this to the fact that the Brewers had a record attendance last year and made the playoffs - also contributing factors. I think Doug Melvin might be in some trouble on this one.

Here's another interesting comparison:

	Andre Either	Corey Hart
	2006-2008	2004-2008
Yrs	3	5
AB	1368	1412
R	190	203
H	409	391
2B	90	93
3B	14	18
HR	44	55
RBI	196	212
BB	139	86
K	233	278
BA	0.299	0.277
OBP	0.364	0.323
SLG	0.482	0.485
SB	11	53

Either is also arbitration eligible for the first time. He is asking for $3.75M; the Dodgers are offering $2.65M - numbers eerily similar to Hart's case. Either's arbitration hearing is February 17 - the day before Hart's. If the Dodgers win, expect a last minute settlement. If Either wins, the Brewers are sunk.

A Case For 30-30-30-30-(30?)

2009-01-23T19:02:00.002-06:00

Eleven teams in the history of baseball have had four 30 home run hitters in a season. The first were the 1977 LA Dodgers when Steve Garvey (33), Reggie Smith (32), Roy Cey (30) and Dusty Baker (30) all hit the once magic number. The other ten times have occurred since 1995, with the 2006 Chicago White Sox (Jermaine Dye 44, Jim Thome 42, Paul Konnerko 35, and Joe Crede 30) being the most recent. The Colorado Rockies account for four of those times when in 1995, 96, 97 and 99, four of their players reached the 30 home run mark.

The 2009 Brewers have a chance to add their name to that list.

THE GIMME'S

Fine. You can never just assume that any play is going to hit 30 home runs, but Ryan Braun and Prince Fielder are about as close as you come. They each turn 25 in May and are clearly on the uphill parts of their careers. Both hitting 40 home runs seems much more likely than either one of them falling short of 30.

PLAUSIBLE

J.J. Hardy hit 24 last year and 26 the year before. At 26 years old he should be entering his most productive seasons. Padding last year's number seems more likely than not.

Mike Cameron hit 25 home runs in 120 games last season. That's a 30 home run pace. He reached 30 with the Mets in 2004 and twice got into the 20's in his two seasons before joining The Crew in a very tough park in San Diego. In a full season in Miller Park, it's not unthinkable that he could toy with 30.

POTENTIAL

Corey Hart had 14 home runs at the mid-way point of last season. He tailed off misserably and memorably at the end of the year, but at 27 years old should also have some bounce back in his numbers. Between the last half of 2007 and the first half of 2008 he hit 28 round trippers. It's not unthinkable that he could put together two solid halfs. (In his career, Hart has hit almost a third of his home runs in the month of June.)

So there's five. You want another? Add Rickie Weeks. He still has too much potential to think he could never do it. Also remember that Bill Hall is only two seasons removed from a 35 home run campaign.

If you assume the following probabilities of each of the Brewers' hitters reaching 30 or more home runs in the 2009 season:

Fielder - 80%
Braun - 80%
Hardy - 50%
Cameron - 40%
Hart - 25%
Weeks - 15%
Hall - 5%

then there is (according to a mathematical model I created) a 30% chance that the Brewers will have four 30 home run hitters, and a 7% chance that they will break the Major League record with five.

In researching this, I discovered that the Florida Marlins are also well positioned to challenge this record. Look at their top five home runs hitters from last year:

Hanley Ramirez - 33 HRs in 2008/25 yrs old in 2009
Mike Jacobs - 32/28
Dan Uggla - 32/29
Jorge Cantu - 29/27
Cody Ross - 22/28

They don't have the big boppers like Braun and Fielder, but they've got a bunch of guys who are right there.

Show Him The Money

2009-01-20T19:49:00.003-06:00

I'm rather surprised at the $8 million arbitration figure submitted by Scott Boras on behalf of Prince Fielder. I thought they would go higher than that - maybe as high as $10 million given the Brewers' playoff appearance and record attendance last year.

I'm wondering if the Brewers didn't think they same thing and submitted $6 million thinking they might settle at $8 million. Once the figures were submitted, Doug Melvin sure seemed to perk up about the prospects of settling with Fielder and avoiding a hearing. I'll guess that they settle at $7.4 - $7.5 million. That's a deal for a player of Fielder's skill and youth.

Hells Bells

2009-01-08T17:30:00.009-06:00

Let me start by saying that having Trevor Hoffman as the Brewers' closer is much better than having Jeff Suppan like I suggested in my last post. That "off the wall" comment was just that. Desperate times called for desperate measures. But with Hoffman here, these are no longer desperate times.

Hoffman's signing is worlds better that Eric Gagne last year. He's much cheaper and much more dependable. Some have looked at Hoffman's 3.77 ERA last year and called it evidence of a decline. Not so. There has been very little appreciable change in Hoffman's skill stats over the course of his career. His stats last year were really no different than his career norms:

(click on graph for larger view)

I am not at all bothered by this being only a 1-year deal with no club option. If he pitches well, he will like it here and want to come back. And if not...

Thinking Outside the Box

2009-01-04T18:00:00.005-06:00

A. How about Jeff Suppan as the Brewers closer?
Baseball Reference.com splits pitchers' stats by high, medium, and low leverage situations. Basically high leverage situations are more game critical than medium, which are more game critical than low. Suppan pitched rather well in high leverage situations in 2008 - exactly those that the closer faces.

	BA	OBP	SLG
High Leverage	0.244	0.268	0.370
Medium Leverage	0.292	0.372	0.464
Low Leverage	0.328	0.388	0.556

His career numbers also show the same pattern, although not as dramatic.

	BA	OBP	SLG
High Leverage	0.272	0.322	0.403
Medium Leverage	0.276	0.339	0.447
Low Leverage	0.292	0.350	0.476

There have been all kinds of starter-to-closer pitchers who have had great success making the transition. Maybe the switch would be just what Suppan needs to salvage the last part of his career and fill a big need in the bullpen. I've got to believe that Carlos Villanueva would be just as good as Suppan as the fifth starter.

B. Shouldn't the Brewers at least inquire about Manny Ramirez?
If there was money to go after CC Sabathia with the thinking being that you make a run at a championship now, the same logic should be used with Ramirez. Imagine Ryan Braun, Prince Fielder, and Manny Ramirez batting 3-4-5 in the order. That would make up for a lot of deficiencies in pitching. Ramirez' stock seems to have come down somewhat. Why not make a run while Prince Fielder is still around? Corey Hart would obviously be the odd man out, but the way he finished last year you've got to wonder if he's going to end up being any better than Brady Clark.

Call to Arms

2009-01-02T21:08:00.002-06:00

Happy New Year everyone.

As the calendar turns and free agent pitchers are being signed one-by-one, I'm starting to wonder what Doug Melvin's plan is for putting together a pitching staff. Between Sabathia, Sheets, Torres, Shouse, Mota, Gagne, Taverez, Turnbow, and Zach Jackson the Brewers have lost 581 innings pitched - 40% of their team total. So far they have bought in Jorge Julio and R.J. Swindle who combined for 34 innings last year.

So who is goint to pitch all the other innings? Gallardo could pick up maybe 160 over last year's total - if he stays healthy. The returning pitchers could match last year's numbers - if they stay healthy. Without any injuries, the Brewers are still about a full starter and 3 or 4 relievers short of a full load. Add an injury or two, which is inevitable, and this team could be looking long, long season.

Time to get busy, Doug.

Got Melk?

2008-12-11T20:10:00.005-06:00

The on again, off again Mike Cameron for Melky Cabrera trade apears to be on again and may go down on Friday. I think this is a good trade for the Brewers. Mekly Cabrera is sort of the Yankees' Rickie Weeks - ton of potential but hasn't shown much yet. But he's only 24 years old. He would be the youngest starter on the Brewers. Three years from now, when Cabrera is hitting his prime, Cameron will be hitting the door.

BaseballReference lists the 10 most similar players to Cabrera through age 23:

Nine of those ten (save Sebring) had far better careers than what Mike Cameron has got left.

Number seven conjures up images of Bob Betts announcing "Melk-y-y-y-y-y-y-y C-a-a-a-a-brera-a-a-a-a-a-a."

My Clam

2008-12-08T20:41:00.004-06:00

The Brewers are apparently close to signing Mike Lamb. It would set up an obvious platoon at third base with Bill Hall.

According to stats on Baseball Reference, the most similar Major League play to Mike Lamb is interestingly, Gabe Kapler:

Kapler:
946 G, 72 HR, .273 BA, 340 RBI
Born 8/31/75 in Hollywood, CA

Lamb:
936 G, 69 HR, .277 BA, 345 RBI
Born 8/9/75 in West Covina, CA - about 15 mi east of Hollywood

Wow. Plus, Lamb is a left handed bat. Probably not a bad signing.

Heirs Apparent

2008-11-08T14:43:00.003-06:00

I guess Willie Randolph's interview with Doug Melvin was a little more than a politically correct gesture. Congratulations to him on being named the new bench coach. He's a smart baseball guy and will be a valuable addition.

Ken Macha won't be looking over his shoulder or anything this season, will he? Now if we can just Hire Bob Brenly as the bullpen coach.

Macha-ry

2008-10-30T17:56:00.011-05:00

My initial reaction to the hiring of Ken Macha is negative. I think Bob Brenly would have been a better choice. It's also my feeling that if I think that, I ought to say something about it now if I want to reserve the right to complain about him when I think complaining is due. So here I am. I do not like the choice of Ken Macha as the next Brewers' manager. Here's why:

1. Macha, for the most part, was a puppet to Billy Beane. He said in an interview that he had no say whatsoever as to the personnel makeup of the team. It's pretty commonly known who was calling the shots during his time in Oakland. So, while Macha has four year's experience and two playoff appearances, it's tough to judge exactly what kind of manager he will be, or more accurately how his presence on the team will help or hurt.

2. Macha's managing style, if he has one, was similar to that of Ned Yost - sit back and wait for the home run. Using stats from the 2007 Bill James Handbook, I calculated Macha's use of various strategy techniques compared to his AL counterparts for the 2006 season - his last in Oakland. The numbers show are a ratio of Macha's total and the average of all other managers in the league.

Lineups Used	1.067
% starters having a platoon advantage	1.001
Pinch hitters used	0.656
Pinch runners used	0.929
Defensive substitutions	0.645
Quick hooks for starting pitchers	0.963
Slow hooks for starting pitchers	1.170
120+ pitches by starting pitcher	2.963
Relievers used on consecutive days	1.229
Long (>1 IP) saves	1.026
Relief pitchers used	1.014
Stolen base attempts	0.629
Sacrific attempts	0.642
Runner moving with the pitch	0.636
Intentional walks	1.277
Pitch outs	0.932

Macha did not use a lot of pinch hitters or defensive substitutions. He also made far less than average use of stolen bases, sacrifices, and the hit and run. He pretty much filled out the lineup card and let them play. (In Macha's defense, this is also Billy Beane's style.)

As for his handling of the pitching staff, again he tends to stay with his starters longer than average and in 2006 led the AL in number of times allowing his starter to reach the 120 pitch mark.

These things give me deja vu.

3. Macha was not popular with his players (and one of them plays here now). I ran across these two articles from the San Francisco Chronicle that were written around the time of Macha's firing in Oakland:

Disconnected - GM Again Cuts Ties With Macha

"The whole thing was a weird situation for me because ever since he came here, we had a pretty good relationship, but over the last couple years, I could see things unfold, and I kept hearing things,'' Chavez said. "He's always been very open and communicative with me, and with some other players, that wasn't true. I heard some things that were kind of disturbing. I think there are going to be a lot of guys who are happy about this.''

"I felt like he didn't protect me,'' Zito said.

"When I got injured, I felt disrespected,'' Kotsay said.

"I don't want Billy to take heat for this [Macha's firing] because this is what needed to happen,'' Kendall said. "If Billy is comfortable with it, we're behind Billy. Maybe Billy saw the same thing the players saw. If Billy gets blasted in the media, it's ridiculous. Billy's going to get a lashing, and he shouldn't.''

YES - *JASON* Kendall said that. **OUR** Jason Kendall.

'Hurt" By Players' Comments, Macha Tells His Side of the Story

"I'm on the field (before games) everyday. I'm on the airplane with them. In my office with the door open," Macha said. "If anyone wants to talk to me about something, I'll give them an answer. Maybe people didn't want to hear the answers I was going to give them, and maybe that's why they didn't want to come in. But I was available."

I'm sorry, but didn't we just fire this same guy?

4. Macha does not seem to have nearly the media savy that Bob Brenly does. Bob Brenly is in the media. He knows how to deal with people in the media. I think a lot of people underestimate the importance of this. Ned Yost was horrible in front of the camera. He often seemed uptight, aggitated, and defensive. This was, in my opinion, great cause of fans' displeasure with him despite the team's success. Ned too often made it seem like things were going poorly. People pick up on that.

I must confess that I have not seen a lot of Ken Macha press conferences, but I don't ever remember him wowwing me in the ones I have.

5. Macha's success and only experience was in the American League. Brenly's was in the National League. It might be easy to make too big a deal of this, but there are some differences. Joe Torre and Tony LaRussa have shown that a good manager can manage anywhere. We don't know yet though if Macha will ever have a seat in that class.

For what it's worth, I hope I'm wrong. I hope Ken Macha clicks with this team, they play well for him, and make the playoffs again next year. But if things start going sour and the captain starts losing control of the ship, you can be sure you will read about it on In-Between Hops.

CC Math

2008-10-28T20:31:00.000-05:00

Rumor is that the Brewers may to offer CC Sabathia a 4-year $100 million contract to stay in Milwaukee. The idea is that offering him more per year but for fewer years might get a deal done.

Doubters say that by taking such an offer he would probably be turning down and additional $50 million in guaranteed money that he could get by signing a 6-year deal somewhere else.

Look at this deal from the Brewers perspective. Suppose that every fan that walks in Miller Park spends on average $40. (I don't know what the exact figure is, but I think that's pretty close.) To pay Sabathia's salary, you would need 625,000 fans. To put it another way, suppose that if the Brewers signed Sabathia, they would equal last year's attendance figure of 3.1 million. Is it plausible that without Sabathia the attendance would dip to 2.5 million? I think it would be very reasonable to suspect that.

Now look at it from Sabathia's standpoint. He's not giving up $50 million. After four years, he'll still be playing ball and can still sign a contract with somebody else. Even if his production declines, you would assume that he would still be in the $10 million per year range at that point. Couple that with the fact that the Brewers' deal might be $3-4 million more now than he might get if he signed a longer deal elsewhere, he's really not risking all that much.

I think this deal would be a win-win and I would be very happy if it went down.

Suspension

2008-10-28T19:59:00.002-05:00

As I write this, about 8:00 p.m. Central time on Wednesday, it is not raining in Philadelphia - theoretically they could be playing. I'm sure the field is a mess and it's a wise decision to push the game back until Wednesday - which by the way is the day that Game 6 was scheduled to be played; the game that Major League baseball pushed back a half hour to accommodate Barack Obama's infomercial - but I digress.

The last two innings of last night's game should have never been played. Those weren't conditions suitable for a World Series. The reason the were played was of course was because they wanted to avoid the embarrassment of the game ending under a rain delay.

I think baseball should just change the rule to say that any game that starts will be finished. Period. All games will go nine innings. That way the umpires can call a game when they see fit without regard for the score. For the sake of the starting pitchers, I would like to see at least a one hour window of dry weather for a game to start, but in today's age of Doppler radar, anyone with an internet connection can predict that with pinpoint accuracy. As unfortunate as it is when a team loses a six inning, rain shortened game, it's equally unfortunate when a team builds up a five run lead in the first three innings only to have it wiped out by weather. Forget all of that. Just say that if the first pitch is thrown, the last one will be too.

Odds & Ends: Bob Brenly

2008-10-21T20:32:00.009-05:00

Brenly was the fourth manager in history to win a World Series in his first year managing - 2001 with the Diamondbacks.

In 2001, Brenly led the Major Leagues in most times keeping a starting pitcher in the game for 120+ pitches with 22. The next closest manager that year had 10. He had Curt Schilling and Randy Johnson on that team, but still.

When Brenly was fired in 2004, the Diamondbacks record was 29-50; a .367 W/L percentage. Al Pedrique took over for the rest of that season and remarkably the team got much worse, going 22-61 the rest of the way; a .265 percentage. Perhaps Brenly wasn't the problem.

Robin Yount was Brenly's bench coach in 2004. Yount resigned after Brenly was fired out of respect for him. I wonder if Brenly gets the Brewers job if he would talk Yount into returning in that role. Maybe he would even find a place for Dale Sveum.

On September 13, 2008, two days before Ned Yost was fired, Brenly signed a four year contract extension to continue as a color commentator for the Cubs.

Brenly has a son Michael who is a catcher in the Cubs organization.

In addition to his broadcasting gigs, Brenly worked for three years as a coach in San Francisco under Dusty Baker.

During his playing career, Brenly was managed by Frank Robinson and Roger Craig for three full seasons each.

At Ohio University, Brenly tied Mike Schmidt's single season home run record.

Once Brenly made 4 errors in a game at third bae but later went on to hit the game winning home run.

New Direction

2008-10-18T05:06:00.004-05:00

Hi again. I haven't written in a while. I've been very busy mostly, but after my attempt at poetry after the Ned Yost firing, a few people suggested that maybe blogging wasn't my thing. Now that I have taken a few weeks off, those same people are asking me to post again. Either 'you don't know what you've got 'till it's gone,' or 'careful what you wish for.'

Just a few random thoughts to get caught back up...

I was obviously happy that the Brewers snuck into the playoffs. Game 3 at Miller Park was the most electric I've ever witnessed there. I really don't think getting in had much to do with Ned Yost being gone, nor with Dale Sveum at the helm. It just happened (with a little help from the Mets.) If the Brewers had won one of those four games against the Phillies in September, Ned Yost probably wouldn't have been fired, the Brewers probably would gotten in the playoffs anyway, lost in the first round anyway, and might still be looking for a new manager anyway.

I'll talk more later about Sveum, but I wasn't thrilled with his managing style. Way to much bunting, and bunting for the sake of bunting. I don't like bunting. Ergo...

As I watched the series against the Phillies, it stuck me how much better the Brewers would have to be to be one of the elite teams in the league. The Phillies have them beat at almost every position. For the long haul, I'd take Ryan Braun, but for a single season there isn't much of a drop off in Pat Burell. As for the other two outfield spots, I'd take Jayson Werth or Shane Victorino over either Mike Cameron or Corey Hart without too much hesitation. Prince Fielder is good, but Ryan Howard is better. Second base isn't even close with Chase Utley. Shortstop is about a wash, and neither team has a third baseman or catcher to speak of. The Brewers had an edge in pitching with CC, but he showed up to the playoffs with not much gas left in his tank and that was all the Phills needed for a convincing win.

Back to Sveum. Doug Melvin made the right move. There a perception among lots of people that once a person has played here, or has lived here, or has had some other connection to the organization in the past, that they are much better than they really are. Ned Yost made a 6 year managing career riding this perception. Craig Counsell extended his career by at least two years on this. And it is the reason that a lot of people wanted Dale Sveum to be retained as the Brewers next manager. The only reason. I'm sure Dale Sveum is a great guy, but I think he would be in over his head managing the Brewers. This is a young team in desperate need of strong direction. There is a lot of young talent that properly molded could be turned into a championship caliber team. The job of managing the Brewers in 2009 will require a much different set of skills, priorities, and impatience than it has over the last six. Dale Sveum's greatest shortcoming may be that he worked too long for Ned Yost. The Brewers can't take a chance that some of that rubbed off. Sveum said "his heart was ripped out" when he heard the news that he didn't get the job. Suck it up. You get to be friends with Robin Yount.

Because he released Sveum, it's obvious that Doug Melvin has another candidate in mind. If I had to guess, I would say that would be Ken Macha. Macha is the guy that Doug Melvin wanted in 2003 before he took the A's job. His teams averaged 91 wins a season during his four years at the helm. His failure to win in the playoffs did him in. I ran across this blog: www.firemach.blogspot.com.

"As usual, you left in the starters just long enough to give up enough runs to lose."

"...you won't sit Kendall because he might get upset."

"This team could do nothing else in the offseason and win at least five more games next year just because you're not asleep in the goddamn dugout."

Deja vu?

If I were allowed to pick, knowing what little I do, I might select Bob Brenly as the next manager of the Brewers. Brenly led the Arizona Diamondbacks to a World Series championship in his first season managing although the makeup of that team, mostly aging veterans, was very different from the current Brewers squad. Still, it shows the ability to walk into and existing quality situation and take the team to the top. Brenly's wikipedia entry contains the following:

Bob Brenly's only curtain call in baseball occurred during a minor league game (teams and date unknown). Brenly's team was on the road, and the home team's fans designated him as the game's "Beer Batter," where if the player struck out, beer in the stadium would be sold at half price for the rest of the game. After Brenly struck out, the fans stood on their feet and cheered for him as he came back out from the dugout and acknowledged the crowd.

How can you not like that?

The most intriguing name to come up for the Brewers spot is Bobby Valentine.

Valentine has been managing in Japan since 2003. I would be curious to see what idiosyncrasies of the game he would bring back with him and how those would play out here. In Japan for example, the starting pitchers only pitch once a week. I'm not suggesting that he would do that here, but he would certainly have formed an opinion about it and it may have an influence on his managing style.