Share With Siva

2008-07-03T10:15:00.002+05:30

Square off long positions.Trend is BEARISH.

2008-07-03T09:35:00.007+05:30

Asian Market shows down Trend.Oil price above $144/bbl.

National Aluminium, Maruti and HPCL may decline.

Sensex Today

2008-07-02T09:11:00.004+05:30

US Market ends upwards. Asian market show mixed trend.
Indian market is likely to be volatile. expect BGR , RIL and IT stocks may survive the bearish move.Airlines stocks look bearish due to hike in ATF price.

Bearish Trend

2008-07-01T09:38:00.002+05:30

India's Trade deficit, External debt as well as Inflation rate have steeply increased.High oil price to cost India $60 billion.
So be cautious of continuance of BEARISHH TREND in general during this entire week.

Inflation -highest of last 13 years

2008-06-27T14:40:00.002+05:30

INFLATION reached 11.42 and oil price $139. Hence Banks,Real Estate ,oil companies etc; will have BEARISH trend. Cairne India will be BULLISH. OIL PRICE IS EXPECTED TO GO UP FURTHER. IF SO PRICE OF CAIRNE ALSO WILL GO UP,ESPECIALLY BECAUSE OF THE POSITIVE NEWS ABOUT THE SPEEDY LAYING OF THE PIPELINE

2008-06-26T14:08:00.001+05:30

IT,Fertilizer & Bank stocks move up.
Power,Auto & Real Estate stocks moves down.
Keep the above aspects in mind while doing Day trading

Today at 13.33hrs

2008-06-26T13:33:00.006+05:30

Govt decided to link Phosphorous & Potash to IPP
Also incentive for producing DAP as an end product.
The above steps are positive for FERTILIZER Companies.
BUY,BUY Chambal,Deepak , & Madrass Fertilizers.

Ghcl enters in to joint venture in a big way.scrip moves up.
Mindas also go for joint venture.

Long Term buy

2008-06-26T11:58:00.001+05:30

Adhunik Metals go for expansion. It is a good buy @ Rs116-120/
for 6-12 months period

Day Trade

2008-06-20T10:10:00.003+05:30

Inflation as on Jun 7 reaches 9.93% Vs8.75% earlier.

Beware of long positions .Sensex &Bank stocks are likely to move negative

Day Trade

2008-06-20T09:44:00.004+05:30

Inflation rate is likely to increase further..Great Offshore bags order worth $15M.
Ran Baxy, below Rs 530/ is very good for positional buy.

Bata opens >200 new shops.Expect uptrend for the scrip.

Day Trade

2008-06-19T09:34:00.000+05:30

Expect to open negative and with initial bearish Trend

2008-06-06T10:01:00.000+05:30

Book profit in Cairn India.

MDs of Govt PSUs-Expenditure on-

2008-06-03T07:33:00.003+05:30

The split up on the monthly expenses a Govt PSU has to bear towards itsManaging Director , taking in to account of the various expenses that are incurred can be given as below;
Monthly expenses(approximate & varies from PSU to PSU)

Item Description (in Rs)

*Salary 50000/
*House Rent 9000/
*Telephone-office 7000/
* do -Residence 4000/
* do -Mobile 3000/
*Car(interest,depreciation,etc ) 12000/
*Diesel 8000/
*Driver 10000/
*journals,etc 1000/
*TechnicalAssistant 17000/
*steno 11000/
*Peon/attender 7000/
*Expense on OfficeRoom,A/Cs,etc. 7000/
*MedicalExpense 4000/
*EntertainmentExpense 3000/
*Tour(Plane&TrainFare,HotelRent,TA,DA,Taxi,etc) 15000/

TOTAL/month 165,000/

TOTAL/Year Rs19,80000/

If the same MD holds the charge of PSUs, the nature & function of which are similar and comparable, there can have substantial saving on expenses referred to above.

For example THE following 3 Govt PSUs can be managed by one MD;
*Handicrafts Development Corporation
* Kerala State Artisan Devpt Corporation,
*Kerala State Palmyra welfare Corporation.

Govt PSUs;Selection of MDs

2008-06-01T10:12:00.007+05:30

The other day I read in the newspapers that the number of PSUs running profitably has increased to 27 out of 44. Of course this is encouraging. Further the Industries Minister said that he was optimistic of converting the remaining PSUs also to profit making ones in a year or two.

FROM MY EXPERIENCE as the Chief Executive of Govt PSUs for 15 years since 1990, let me express my views that are helpful to make this desire a reality.

The Govt should appoint only Management Experts, with proven success in running similar organizations and that too for a reasonably long period, say 3-5 years. He should be a man of dedication, vision as well as excellent HR with employees, vendours, dealers /customers as well as Govt authorities. He should have the will and courage to boldly implement the decision taken within the time frame. He should be successful in designating the right officials as Heads of major Departments such as Personnel, Finance, Marketing, Materials, Production and Research and should entrust them with proper authority and responsibility to run their respective Departments successfully and to fulfill the mission and commitment .They should also train, guide and encourage the personnel working under them with the objective of improving their skill and knowledge.

Another major problem faced in Govt PSUs is that out of 100 decisions to be taken precedence and written guidelines may allow the Management to take decision on ,say for 20 cases, Govt on ,say, another 20 cases (such as pay revision, additional manpower requirement ,etc.).With regard to the remaining 60 aspects even if it would be OK for the Management to take decision the MD would choose the easier and safer path of seeking Govt approval so as to avoid any future complaint –may be by Unions, anonymous letters, Govt queries, etc. The probability of getting a positive reply in time from the Govt is very remote. The officials in the Govt are likely to send queries on the subject seeking clarifications .Sometimes the concerned Dept may forward it to other Depts such as Planning or Legal or Finance. What to say this labyrinth of sacrosanct procedure will ultimately result in not taking the right Decision at the right time.

Another reason for many MDs to be afraid of taking bold decisions that are good for the company is the fear that even if 99 out of 100 decisions they take are good for the organization and result in substantial saving the MD will be answerable to queries of Finance wing of secretariat, statutory auditors, etc on taking a decision that might have resulted in a financial loss which may, even though be less than 1% oh the overall gain the Organization achieved by the successful implementation of the other 99 decisions.

Let me narrate an incidence. In early 2002, while I was the MD of a cattle feed Company we got an offer for 2000MT of soybean of the required quality. The rate offered was only Rs 9000/ per MT if we buy the entire quantity offered, ie;:2000MT .But this would meet our requirement for around 7 months and our normal order quantity was 200/300Mt.The Quality manager assured the shelf life to be not less than 9 months and the Finance Manager said that average loss on storage of material for additional 6 months would be 2.5% max. Based on previous 2 year’s price charts, and other relevant factors such as expected demand in China in the coming 6 months, expected world production during 2002,etc our Purchase Committee envisaged a minimum gain of 20% on the bulk purchase and we bought 2000Mt. To our luck the price went up to Rs 13000/ to Rs 16000/ during the succeeding months and the company saved millions. However in case the price came down, say, Even by Rs10/ per MT and there by resulted in an overall loss of few lakh rupees the MD and the Purchase committee would have been crucified.

May 29-Day trade

2008-05-29T09:35:00.002+05:30

Today I am eying on making some profit by day trading Chambal Fertilizer & Tata Chemicals.I intend to buy 200 numbers each if opens with positive trend .and 200 more if the price and demand curves shows upward trend . Most important thing is to square off in case the trend reverse by max 1-1.5%. If trend is upwards modify Stop loss at !% lower rate.

May27th: Today’s advice to share Traders

2008-05-26T23:58:00.004+05:30

"Cut your losses to minimum and
Let your profits to reap high"

Let me explain this plan with an example:
From the routine sources of data you gather you expect the price of scrip A to increase today. Your trading target quantity is between 100 &400.Let the opening @ is Rs300/ and the ratio between Total Buyers (TB) &Total Sellers (TS) is moving upwards. As the @ increases you buy 100 nos.@ Rs301/, 100 more @ Rs 303/ and a 3rd lot at 305/. Now suppose the price goes further up to 309/ and then starts declining. At 307 you sell all the 300 nos you bought. Your gross profit is Rs 1200/.
Suppose you buy 100 nos @Rs301/ and then, contrary to your expectation, price starts declining. In such an unexpected situation, when the @ declines to 299, instead of buying the 2nd lot , you must square off the 100 numbers you already bought and thus restrict the loss to Rs200/.

may26th-Day Trade

2008-05-26T08:42:00.001+05:30

If the sensex opens with bearish trend I expect the price of Federal Bank to go down

2008-05-23T11:06:00.000+05:30

Sorry the scrip I intended is UNITEDSPIRIT and not Unitech

2008-05-23T11:03:00.000+05:30

Observe unitech which shows an upward trend increasing demand

2008-05-23T10:55:00.000+05:30

Watch sugar stocks.Govt likely to withdraw export subsidy for sugar

May23rd

2008-05-23T10:12:00.001+05:30

Now I am seeing the movie Psycho in the HBO channel. I cannot forget the night I saw the film many years back at the Sreekumar Theatre in Trivandrum. I was just 15 years old and was staying at the University College Hostel. I went to see the movie along with my friend Padmarajan and his brother Padma Dharan who were staying in my hostel. Every inmate was provided single room in the hostel. However that night we were very much afraid to sleep alone and all three of us slept in the room of Padmadharan.

Padmarajan, later on, became a very famous author and film director. Since we said goodbye to the University Hostel in 1962 I met him coincidentally at the Trivandrum Airport in 1980. We used the journey time to refresh the memoires of our College days. From Chennai Airport he gave me a lift to Hotel Savera where I was scheduled to stay.

Padmarajan left us in 1991. On Jan23rd,1991 Padmarajan, along with Niteesh, the hero of his latest movie “Njan Gandharvan” went to a Theatre in Calicut to see that film, Came back to the hotel and went to sleep in the same room. .Alas, that midnight he left us for ever.

For Day Traders - May 23rd 08

2008-05-23T09:51:00.001+05:30

Today, watch the scrips ABB and IOB, the value of which are likely to fall.

May22.Tata Tea:Trend at 10.40

2008-05-22T10:37:00.003+05:30

I expect @ to go up from 955.20 to 963/

May22: Momentum Trade

2008-05-22T10:23:00.000+05:30

May22nd: momentum trade

Day Trade:May21st

2008-05-21T09:45:00.003+05:30

May21st

I expect the market to open with a BEARISH TREND.Stricter norms to get loan may adversely affect Auto ,especially Tractor, sector