SMU Election Project

Obama's Daughters on Hannah Montana?

2008-11-12T09:20:00.000-08:00

Seriously? Add it on to the celebrity status of the Obama family. In an interview with Access Hollywood, Billy Ray Cyrus spoke of his extended invitation for Malia, 10, and Sasha, 7, to appear on an April episode, the UK Telegraph reports.

Obama has said in recent interviews that his daughters were big fans of the show. However, Barack and Michelle have made an enormous effort to keep the girls out of the media. Should be interesting to see how this shakes out.

Patriotic Man Flies Flag Upside-Down in Protest

2008-11-10T08:10:00.000-08:00

In Arlington, TX, Patrick O'Toole flew his American flag upside down beneath a solid black flag. O'Toole has proudly raised and lowered his American flag since 9/11. In protest to Obama's win, this has stirred up the entire neighborhood. Neighbor Sharon Garner said, "I just don't think its American. We have children in our neighborhood, and I'm sure their parents have to explain to them why that flag is hanging like that."

When asked by a WFAA reporter, O'Toole defended his action by saying "The black flag is because our country is dying. It's never been as divided as it is right now. And the upside down American flag is because our country is in distress." O'Toole, who is a Navy veteran, further explains that the black flag has absolutely nothing to do with race.

O'Toole stands behind is action and will continue to fly his flags as he sees fit. This is ultimately a free speech issue. His neighbors can ask him to take it down, however he seems pretty set in his beliefs on this.

Video Clip:

http://www.wfaa.com/video/?nvid=301731&shu=1

Get your papers!

2008-11-06T18:54:00.000-08:00

Print news publications did not predict the overwhelming desire for a piece of history and printed proof that Obama is the President Elect. Newsstands were empty mid-day on Wednesday and now copies of the various newspapers are being sold for as much as 200 dollars on e-bay. One man in Baltimore snagged 90 copies at once, reports the International Herald Tribune. Most front pages have a gigantic photo of Obama and a short headline about change, plays on his campaign slogans, history or victory. Above is a collage from the Chicago Sun Times.

You can check out nearly all the newspapers headlines of Obama's victory here.

Even with the internet immortalizing just about everything that goes on in this country from the high school break up to the peaceful transition of power, the value of a printed paper is not lost on Americans

Here are some other front pages from Wednesday. Each of these headlines emphasize the historic victory of our nation's first black president.

Election Day Forecasting

2008-11-04T09:34:00.000-08:00

The weather might have an effect on voter turnout thus affecting the numbers at the polls. An upper level trough has brought snow to the mountains in the western portion of the U.S. In Virginia and North Carolina, where polls show both candidates in a virtual dead heat, rainy and windy weather will combat with voters there.

The rest of the U.S. doesn't look so bad with moderate temperatures appropriate for this time of year across the board. What possible effects this will have on the election is yet to be seen, but certainly Virginia and North Carolina will feel the effects if nothing else.

As if the bad weather in Virginia weren't enough, there have been reports of problems with the voting machines. In Richmond Virginia, a breakdown of the electronic voting machines "led to a three-and-a-half hour wait to vote".

The FINAL count....One day to go!

2008-11-03T23:02:00.001-08:00

As we have analyzed each state over the course of the past few months, our class calls the race for Obama-Biden with 321 electoral votes to McCain-Palin's 217.

The swing states were called as follows:

Obama: Nevada, Colorado, New Mexico, Minnesota, Iowa, Indiana, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Virginia
McCain: Missouri, North Carolina, and Florida

Maine was called 3 electoral votes for Obama and 1 for McCain.

We will be keeping a close eye on the battleground states, especially looking at the number of voters who turn out at the polls.

Continuing the attacks: Palin on Obama and Coal

2008-11-02T21:49:00.001-08:00

While speaking in Ohio today, Palin attacked Obama for a recording by the San Francisco Chronicle in an interview with Obama in January. Palin said, “This interview was given to San Francisco folks many, many months ago. You should have known about this, so that you would have better decision-making information as you go into the voting booth.”

Race continues to look different from 2004

2008-11-01T14:33:00.000-07:00

Obama has purchased ad time in Arizona, John McCain's home turf. The Obama campaign has said that the ad will be positive, rather than critical of McCain, in an effort not to offend any voters in the state. In Arizona, polls show that the race has been tightening but is very unlikely to tip to Obama's favor before Election Day. So what's with the ad buy? Obama campaign manager David Plouffe says that with a Democratic governor and an increasingly influential Hispanic population, Arizona is worth a try (and after all, they can afford it).

"It's enough in the realm of possibility that we want to put a little extra effort in the end," Plouffe said. "We're just going to give it a go in the last three or four days and see how close we can get it."

It could also be meant to throw the McCain campaign further off course in the last days of the election - McCain was seemingly prompted to appear in Arizona after Obama made the buy.

The Obama campaign is also venturing into Georgia and aiming for a possible victory based on the support from the youth and from black voters. Obama is also working hard for support in Colorado, Nevada, and Missouri, all of which Bush won comfortably in 2004. Ultimately, this is shaping up to be an election very unlike the last two. States that were once assumed to be easy grabs for McCain, red states that Bush won in 2000 and 2004, have become very uncertain for the Republican candidate. On the other end, McCain is making inroads in Pennsylvania and New Hampshire, two states which voted Democratic in 2004.

Where will the candidates be for the final days?

2008-10-31T09:39:00.000-07:00

MSNBC's First Read tracks the campaign trail for the final days...

Saturday, November 1st
Obama: Nevada, Colorado, and Missouri
McCain: Virginia and Pennsylvania

Sunday, November 2nd
Obama: Ohio
McCain: New Hampshire

Monday, November 3rd:
Obama: Florida, North Carolina, and Virginia
McCain: 6 states including Nevada and Arizona

Obama's infomercial: A good call?

2008-10-31T09:33:00.000-07:00

MSNBC's First Thoughts took a look at whether the campaigns money was well spent on Obama's 30 minute advertisement. They reported that almost 34 million people watched the ad. To put that in perspective, the NY Times reported Obama's 34 million viewers is more than the number of Americans that watched the World Series game that followed it, and also the finale of last season's American Idol. To break it down by networks that people tuned into for watching the ad: NBC had about 10 million, CBS had 8.6 million viewers, and FOX had 1 million viewers. From the numbers, it looks as though the Obama camp made a good decision on the ad buy.

Anti-Obama Carnival

2008-10-30T09:35:00.001-07:00

McCain comments on Obama's 30 minute ad

2008-10-30T09:30:00.000-07:00

John McCain's interview with Larry King ran last night right after Obama's notorious 30 minute ad. As reported on CNN.com today, Here is what McCain had to say about the ad and Obama's spending in general:

King: Sen. Obama had a 30-minute ad buy tonight. It ran right before we went on the air. Does that make it hard for you, the amount of money being spent against you?

McCain: Frankly, what's disturbing about it is that he signed a piece of paper back when he was a long shot candidate. And he signed it, said I won't -- I will take public financing for the presidential campaign if John McCain will. I mean, it's a living document.

He didn't tell the American people the truth. And then twice he looked into the camera when he was in debate with Sen. Clinton and said, "I'll sit down and negotiate with John McCain before I decide on public financing."

Well, he didn't tell the American people the truth. He never had any -- I'm still waiting for the call.

Not a traditional Halloween display

2008-10-28T17:09:00.000-07:00

Over the past few days, with only a week left in the campaign, there has been an assassination plot revealed for Obama and now a controversial McCain/Palin Halloween display. These obviously offensive, scary, and hateful displays and plots are concrete examples of just how deep this election has gone.

Assassination plot broken up

2008-10-27T18:46:00.000-07:00

What effect will the assassination plot on Obama have on the election next week?

Are you Joe the Plumber?

2008-10-27T17:30:00.001-07:00

The interview that has everyone talking

2008-10-27T17:20:00.000-07:00

Budget matters

2008-10-27T10:52:00.000-07:00

I was not a huge fan of so much being made of Governor Palin's wardrobe, but last night I came to a realization that made it a little more relevant.

Palin's wardrobe cost about $150,000, and she has been campaigning for about two months, let's say 60 days. 150,000 divided by 60 is $2,500--her daily wardrobe budget.

Divide that by 24 and that's $104.17--Sarah Palin's hourly wardrobe budget.

The clothes will be donated according to the campaign, but when some charities can feed people thanksgiving dinners for less than $2 and others can feed dozens of starving people in Africa for 20 bucks, I have trouble with that justification.

I wish we could focus on the issues, but with the economy as the main topic this fall, maybe this is an issue to consider.

Major Endorsements from Major Newspapers are Filtering In

2008-10-27T09:14:00.000-07:00

As the race winds down to the last 8 days, major newspapers across the U.S. are making known who they support for the presidency. Barack Obama leads the endorsement race with 170 endorsements to John McCain's tally of 69.

"Not included in the tally below are Friday's major endorsements for Obama from the Hartford Courant and St. Petersburg Times, and his Saturday or Sunday nods from the Providence Journal, Anchorage Daily News, Des Moines Register, Fort Worth Star-Telegram, Times-Picayune of New Orleans, Newark's Star-Ledger and Bergen Record in New Jersey, Baltimore Sun, Rochester Democrat & Chronicle, Albany Times-Union and others. McCain picked up the Cincinnati Enquirer and Arizona Republic on Saturday, and smaller papers."

There have been 38 papers that have switched to Obama from Bush in 2004 and only four flipping to McCain. Here are the latest endorsements by state.

(B) = Bush; (K) = Kerry; (N) = No Endorsement

BARACK OBAMA
134 daily newspapers total (not updated this weekend)
More than 15 million daily circulation total

ALABAMA (1)
Tuscaloosa News (K): 32,768

CALIFORNIA (26)
The Argus (Fremont) (K): 26,749
Contra Costa Times (Walnut Creek) (K): 183,086
Daily Breeze (Torrance) (B): 66,599
Daily News (Los Angeles) (K): 137,344
Daily Review (Hayward) (K): 30,704
The Fresno Bee (K): 150,334
Inland Valley Daily Bulletin (Ontario) (B): 53,903
La Opinion (Los Angeles) (K): 114,892
Long Beach Press Telegram (B): 85,595
Los Angeles Times (N): 773,884
Marin Independent-Journal (K): 31,909
Merced Sun Star (K): 15,015
The Modesto Bee (K): 78,001
The Monterey County Herald (K): 28,933
Oakland Tribune (K): 96,535
Pasadena Star-News (B): 27,894
San Gabriel Valley Tribune (B): 40,051
San Mateo Daily Journal: 14,800
The (Stockton) Record (B): 57,486
The Sacramento Bee (K): 288,755
San Bernardino Sun (B): 54,315
San Francisco Chronicle (K): 370,345
San Jose Mercury News (K): 234,772
San Mateo County Times (K): 25,982
Santa Cruz Sentinel (K): 23,290
Tri-Valley Herald (B): 29,759

COLORADO (9)
Aspen Daily News (K): 12,500
The Aurora Sentinel (K): 46,000
Boulder Camera (K): 28,994
Cortez Journal (K): 6,700
The Denver Post (B): 225,193
The Durango Herald (K): 8,870
Gunnison Country Times (N): 4,000
Ouray County Plaindealer (K): 3,000
>>> Vail Daily: 10,525

CONNECTICUT (1)
New Haven Register (B): 72,613

DELAWARE (1)
>>>The News Journal (Wilmington) (K): 110,171

DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA (1)
The Washington Post (K): 673,180

FLORIDA (6)
Daytona Beach News-Journal (K): 99,627
Miami Herald (K): 240,223
Naples Daily-News (B): 66,272
Orlando Sentinel (K): 227,593
The Palm Beach Post (K): 164,474
Sarasota Herald-Tribune (K): 114,904

GEORGIA (1)
Atlanta Journal-Constitution (K): 326,907

HAWAII (1)
Honolulu Star-Bulletin (K): 64,305

IDAHO (1)
Idaho Statesman (K): 61,927

ILLINOIS (6)
Chicago Tribune (B): 541,663
Chicago Sun-Times (K): 312,274
Daily Herald (Arlington) (K): 143,152
>>> Lake County News-Sun (Waukegan) (B): 16,899
Rockford Register Star (K): 55,913
Southwest News-Herald (K): 9,300

INDIANA (2)
The Journal Gazette (Fort Wayne) (K): 64,304
Palladium-Item (Richmond) (B): 15,453

IOWA (3)
The Hawk Eye (Burlington) (K): 18,921
Mason City Globe Gazette (B): 17,666
The Storm Lake Times (K): 3,200

KENTUCKY (2)
>>> The Ledger Independent (Maysville)
Lexington Herald-Leader (K):109,624

MAINE (2)
Bangor Daily News (K): 55,627
Brunswick Times-Record (K): 9,317

MASSACHUSETTS (3)
The Boston Globe (K): 350,605
North Adams Transcript: 5,949
The Standard-Times (New Bedford) (K): 30,306

MICHIGAN (3)
Detroit Free Press (K): 308,944
Michigan Chronicle (Detroit) (N): 31,872
The Muskegon Chronicle (K): 41,114

MINNESOTA (1)
St. Cloud Times (K): 25,868

MISSOURI (3)
Columbia Daily Tribune (K): 18,131
The Kansas City Star (K): 252,785
St. Louis Post-Dispatch (K): 255,057

NEVADA (1)
Las Vegas Sun (K): 174,341

NEW HAMPSHIRE (2)
Concord Monitor (K): 19,885
Nashua Telegraph (K): 24,272

NEW JERSEY (1)
Asbury Park Press (Neptune) (B): 140,882

NEW MEXICO (2)
Las Cruces Sun-News (B): 21,341
Santa Fe New Mexican (K): 25,249

NEW YORK (4)
Buffalo News (K): 178,365
Daily News (B): 703,137
The Daily Star (Oneonta) (K): 14,391
el Diario (K): 53,856
The New York Times (K)

NORTH CAROLINA (5)
Asheville Citizen-Times (K): 50,160
The Daily Reflector (Greenville) (K): 21,703
Durham Herald-Sun (N): 32,845
News & Observer (Raleigh) (K): 176,083
Wilmington Star-News (K): 47,620

OHIO (9)
Akron Beacon-Journal (K): 119,929
The Blade (Toledo) (K): 119,901
Dayton Daily News (K): 116,690
Hamilton Journal-News (B): 19,432
Middletown Journal: 17,285
The Repository (Canton) (B): 65,789
The Times-Reporter (New Philadelphia) (B): 22,428
Springfield News-Sun (K): 24,684
The Plain Dealer (Cleveland) (N): 330,280

OKLAHOMA
Muskogee Phoenix (K)

OREGON (7)
>>> Corvallis Gazette-Times: 12,092
The Daily Astorian (Astoria) (K): 8,263
Mail Tribune (Medford) (K): 30,349
The Oregonian (Portland) (K): 304,399
Register-Guard (Eugene) (K): 67,400
Statesman-Journal (Salem) (K): 47,152
Yamhill Valley News-Register (McMinnville) (B): 10,921

PENNSYLVANIA (5)
The Daily Item (Sunbury) (N): 24,879
The Express-Times (Easton) (B): 44,561
>>>Philadelphia Daily News (K)
Philadelphia Inquirer (K): 334,150
Pittsburgh Post-Gazette (K): 214,374

TENNESSEE (3)
Chattanooga Times (K): 71,716
The Commercial Appeal (Memphis) (K): 146,961
The (Nashville) Tennessean (K): 161,131

TEXAS (5)
Austin American-Statesman (B): 170,309
The Eagle (Bryan-College Station): 21,654
Houston Chronicle (B): 494,131
Longview News-Journal (K): 27,590
The Lufkin Daily News (K): 12,225

UTAH (1)
The Salt Lake Tribune (B): 121,699

VERMONT (1)
Burlington Free Press (K): 41,901

VIRGINIA (1)
Falls Church News-Press (K): 30,500

WASHINGTON (8)
The Columbian (B): 44,623
The News Tribune (Tacoma) (K): 111,778
The Olympian (Olympia) (K): 30,755
Seattle Post-Intelligencer (K): 129,563
The Seattle Times (K): 220,883
Tri-City Herald (K): 40,830
Walla Walla Union-Bulletin (K): 13,624
Yakima Herald-Republic (B): 38,077

WEST VIRGINIA (2)
The Charleston Gazette (K): 48,061
Huntington Herald-Dispatch (K): 27,463

WISCONSIN (3)
The Capital Times (Madison) (K): 16,335
>>> Stevens Point Journal
Wisconsin State Journal (Madison) (B): 87,930

JOHN McCAIN
52 daily newspapers total
More than 4,139,700 daily circulation total

CALIFORNIA (5)
Bakersfield Californian (B) 59,433
Napa Valley Register (B): 16,283
Riverside Press-Enterprise (B): 164,189
The San Francisco Examiner (B): 80,000
San Diego Union-Tribune (B): 288,669

COLORADO (4)
Mountain Valley News (Cedaredge): 2,000
The Daily Sentinel (Grand Junction) (B): 31,349
The Pueblo Chieftain (B): 49,169
Daily Times-Call (Longmont) (B): 21,127

CONNECTICUT (1)
The Register Citizen (Torrington) (B): 8,217

DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA (1)
The Washington DC Examiner (N): 100,073

FLORIDA (4)
Bradenton Herald (K): 48,618
Cape Coral Daily Breeze: 2,015
Palatka Daily News: 11,000
Tampa Tribune: 220,522

IOWA (1)
The Messenger (Fort Dodge) (B): 16,355

MARYLAND (1)
The Baltimore Examiner (N): 50,000

MASSACHUSETTS (2)
Boston Herald (B): 182,350
The (Lowell) Sun (B): 44,439

MICHIGAN (1)
The Detroit News: 188,171

MINNESOTA (1)
The Journal (New Ulm) (B): 7,920

NEBRASKA (1)
>>> McCook Daily Gazette: 5,903

NEW HAMPSHIRE (2)
Foster’s Daily Democrat (B): 22,547
Union Leader (Manchester) (B): 51,782

NEW MEXICO (1)
Roswell Daily Record: 11,700

NEVADA (1)
Las Vegas Review-Journal (B): 174,341

NEW YORK (1)
New York Post (B): 702,488

NORTH DAKOTA (1)
Fargo Forum (B): 48,303

OHIO (2)
Columbus Dispatch (B): 199,524
The (Findlay) Courier (B): 22,319

OKLAHOMA (1)
Bartlesville Examiner-Enterprise: 18,400

OREGON (1)
Bend Bulletin (B): 32,455

PENNSYLVANIA (2)
Public Opinion (Chambersburg) (N): 16,679
The Sentinel (Lewistown) (B): 11,863

SOUTH CAROLINA (1)
>>> The State (Columbia) (B)

TENNESSEE (3)
The Chattanooga Free Press (B): 71,716
The Jackson Sun (K): 32,121
The Leaf-Chronicle (Clarksville) (B): 20,354

TEXAS (9)
Amarillo Globe-News (B): 44,764
Beaumont Enterprise (B): 45,684
Corpus Christi Caller-Times (K): 53,368
Dallas Morning News (B): 368,313
>>> Kerrville Daily Times: 8,971
The Lubbock Avalanche-Journal (B): 49,094
San Antonio Express-News (B): 225,447
Times Record News (Wichita Falls) (N): 28,888
Tyler Morning Telegraph: 35,598

VIRGINIA (3)
The Daily News Record (Harrisonburg): 30,908
Daily Press (Newport News) (K): 91,508
The Winchester Star (B): 20,218

WASHINGTON (1)
(Spokane) Spokesman-Review (B): 89,779

WEST VIRGINIA (1)
Wheeling News-Register (B): 12,821

WEEKLIES / COLLEGE

OBAMA (18)
Arkansas Times (Little Rock)
>>>The Bowdoin Orient (Bowdoin College)
The Chronicle (Duke University)
Cincinnati CityBeat
City Newspaper (Rochester, NY)
>>> EPG News
>>> Hoy
>>>Hunterdon Review (Clinton, NJ)
Independent Weekly (North Carolina)
>>> New York Observer
News-Register (McMinnville, OR)
>>> The Pacific Northwest Inlander (Spokane, WA)
>>> San Diego CityBeat
>>> Santa Barbara Independent (California)
Santa Monica Mirror (California)
>>>The Virginia Gazette (Williamsburg)
Windsor Beacon (Colorado)
>>> Metro Santa Cruz (California)

JOHN McCAIN (4)
The Garden City News (New York)
Lampasas Dispatch Record (Texas)
River Falls Journal (Wisconsin)
Wharton Journal-Spectator (Texas)

CHOOSING NOT TO ENDORSE (7)

>>> Abilene Reporter-News
Colorado Springs Gazette
>>> Fort Meyers News-Press
Mountain Home News (Idaho)
Springfield News-Leader
The Record Searchlight (California)
Waco Tribune Herald (Texas)

Will Obama say anything to win?

2008-10-23T10:09:00.000-07:00

The Associated Press reported this morning that as McCain travels on his campaign bus in Florida, he is making claims that Obama will tell the voters "anything to get elected". McCain said, "Thirteen days to go, and he changed his tax plan because the American people had learned the truth about it and they didn't like it. It's another example that he'll say anything to get elected."

With the campaign time narrowing, is this kind of talk by McCain going to make an impact on voters? According to Real Clear Politics, Obama leads McCain in Florida by only an average of 1 point. With such a close average in a key swing state, McCain may have to make bold statements like this to turn Florida red.

The Chronicles of Sarah Palin: The Elephant, The RNC, and The Wardrobe

2008-10-22T11:28:00.000-07:00

Every website I have visited for my daily political news is reporting the RNC's shopping spree for VP nominee, Sarah Palin. I have been thinking about what this means for her as a candidate and why we should care. Three main arguments arise as to why this was not a good move by the RNC and how it goes even deeper than her wardrobe.

First of all, Sarah Palin joined the McCain ticket as someone who is not a "Washington Insider". In introducing herself to the American voters she describes herself as a hockey mom with a husband that is a member of a union, school teachers for parents, and an average PTA mom. She talks about how she drives her truck to work and does not have a cook, unlike the other governors of Alaska have. Does this new $150,000 wardrobe provided by the RNC from places like Saks Fifth Avenue and Neiman Marcus stay in line with Palin's message as a candidate? I think not. Some may argue that this was needed because she is a woman, therefore requiring more than a man in the wardrobe and makeup department. However, I argue that this singles her out as a woman with varying treatment, another thing the McCain/Palin campaign has attacked people for doing.

Secondly, in the beginning of the campaign, through the conventions, and still today we have seen the media compare the wardrobes of potential First Lady's Michelle Obama and Cindy McCain. Michelle Obama has appealed to many voters for her Target shopping, as opposed to Cindy McCain's expensive taste. Cindy McCain was attacked after the RNC for her elaborate, although beautiful, Oscar de la Renta colorful suits. After seeing the scrutiny by the media of both of these women and their clothing and accessory choices, I wonder what exactly the RNC was thinking with Palin.

Another argument against the RNC's decision to spend this money is about the money and where it could best be spent. Obama's camp and the DNC have obviously trumped McCain and the RNC in advertising and GOTV efforts. The reason for this: money. While it is clear that McCain's acceptance of public funding has put him at a disadvantage in this department, the RNC spending $150,000 on Palin's wardrobe does not show that they are strategically thinking. Instead of spicing up Palin's wardrobe, that money could have been used for GOTV and gaining Republican support; something that is clearly needed in this close election.

Is this Presidential Race over?

2008-10-22T09:25:00.001-07:00

An article published online in the National Journal seems to think that the race for the Presidential Office is all but sealed up at this point in time. They point to six reasons why McCain will not succeed in his bid for the White House.

1. No candidate behind this far in the polls has surmounted a comeback, ever.

2. Early voting has brought in droves of people and "the more votes are cast early, the more voters are out of the pool for McCain."

3. The surge of Democratic party registrations in those states that require party affiliations will favor Obama.

4. Money. Obama is outspending McCain in advertising by margins of 3- and 4-1 and is gearing his dollars towards positive advertisements.

5. The "Bradley effect" hasn't happened in at least 15 years and the high voter turnout among African-Americans could offset it anyway.

6. "Obama is now leading in every state that Al Gore and John Kerry both won, including Michigan, Pennsylvania, Minnesota, and Wisconsin, and he is ahead in Iowa, New Hampshire, and New Mexico, the three states that went once but not twice for Democrats in 2000 and 2004. He is also ahead in Florida, Colorado, and Virginia. If that weren't enough (and it is), he's running basically even in Indiana, Missouri, Nevada, North Carolina, and Ohio, and even threatening in Montana, North Dakota and West Virginia."

The only thing that could possibly help McCain at this point in time is a deus ex machina, an unforeseen cataclysmic event that shifts the trajectory of this election. The stress of the election is showing in McCain's demeanor. McCain gave a speech in Pennsylvania in which he essentially agreed that Western Pennsylvania was racist. This of course is not the truth, but the mistake by McCain shows how tired he must be.

McCain has reportedly received an endorsement from al Qaeda. The endorsement, as the McCain camp states, is an attempt at reverse psychology, an attempt to sway voters in the U.S. to not vote for McCain. There may be a legitimate reason why al Qaeda would not want McCain in office, (his military record and accountability,) but with the data provided in the National Journal's article, it will be difficult for that to happen, with or without the endorsement.

The "Sleeping Giant" Has Awoken

2008-10-21T17:27:00.000-07:00

“Make no mistake about it,” Senator Barack Obama said while addressing the crowd on July 13 at the annual gathering of the National Council of La Raza, an organization aimed at promoting the rights of the Spanish-speaking American population, according to the Globe and Mail, a Canadian Newspaper. “The Latino community holds this election in your hands.”

The Senator from Illinois was equally insistent on the potential for representation the Hispanic population in the United States holds in the 2008 Presidential election when speaking to a mostly Latino crowd of around 10,000 gatherers in the New Mexican town of Espanola on September 19, according to an article in London’s The Guardian, saying, “I want you to start voting your numbers. Start flexing your muscles.”

Senator Obama appears to be putting his money where his mouth is, spending more than $20 million campaign dollars on outreach to the Latino population nationwide, and with good reason according to recent statistics. The United States now bosts the second largest Hispanic population of any country in the world, trailing only Mexico. According to a study conducted by the Pew Hispanic Center in December of 2007, about 45.5 million Latinos live in the United States. One in eight people in this country comes from a Hispanic background. Last year, salsa outsold ketchup in US grocery stores as measured by revenues. The Hispanic population and their influence on American culture in general has undeniably become increasingly pronounced.

The implications for this in terms of voter constituency are rather complicated, however. Only 34 of the some 45 million Latinos estimated to be living in the US are doing so legally, and the Hispanic population is significantly younger than the national average, resulting in a dwindled voter pool accounting for only about 6 or 7 percent of the total vote in the November election.

“But despite these modest numbers, Hispanics loom as a potential ‘swing vote’ in next years’ presidential race…because they are strategically located on the 2008 Electoral College map,” concludes the December 2007 Pew Center report.

The numbers support this finding. In the “swing states” of New Mexico, Florida, Nevada, and Colorado, Latinos constitute a much larger percentage of the eligible electorate than they do nationally (37 percent, 14 percent, 12 percent and 12 percent, respectively.) These states represent a cumulative 46 electoral votes up for grabs, demonstrating the growing importance of the Latino vote in the election as a whole.

Senator Obama is not the only presidential candidate attempting to reach out to the Hispanic community. Republicans and Democrats alike appear to have recognized that the voting demographic long-referred to as “the sleeping giant” by political analysts in this country has been stirred. Though historically U.S. Hispanics have tended to side with Democrats, George W. Bush’s emphasis on conservative family values appealed to this largely religious population, aided by his attempts to reach a consensus on immigration reform, helping him garner 40 percent of the Latino vote according to exit polls in the 2004 election. Political analysts have speculated that Senator John McCain must surpass this number in the Latino population in order to win the general election. If this proves true, things aren’t looking great for the Republican party.

While both candidates appear to have pros and cons for Latinos, Hispanic registered voters supported Obama over McCain by a 66 percent to 23 percent margin in a nationwide survey conducted by the Pew center in June and July of this year. The survey found that Latino voters have moved acutely toward the Democratic camp in the past two years, reversing gains made by the GOP earlier in the decade.

Senator Obama trailed Senator Hillary Clinton 4-to-1 among Latinos nationally (68% to 17%) in the Democratic primaries as late as February, according to a poll conducted by CNN. It has been widely suggested that this may have been due to tensions felt between the Latino and African-American communities as both struggle to claw their way up from the poverty and poor living conditions affecting many minorities in this country.
A local Republican chairman in northern New Mexico was forced to resign in September after giving the following statement to a BBC reporter: “Hispanics came here as conquerors. African-Americans came here as slaves. Hispanics consider themselves above blacks. They won’t vote for a black president.”

The remark was met with general upheaval in the media and in the public in New Mexico as Hispanic leaders quickly came forward to discredit the idea. Gabriel Sanchez, a professor of political science at the University of New Mexico in Albuquerque, believes Hispanic voters are concerned with the same issues as all American voters, not with the racial advancement of one minority over another, according to the Guardian article.

“The million dollar question is whether it is race or the economy that is motivating Democratic Hispanics,” says Sanchez. “I would be shocked if race was the deciding factor, but you never know.”

An early June polling of 800 registered Latino voters in 21 states conducted in-part by political scientists at the University of Washington in Seattle showed Latino citizens ranking immigration- a matter uniquely tied to the Hispanic community- as the third most important issue influencing their vote in the 2008 election, trailing jobs and the economy and the war in Iraq. Graduation rates far below the national average and lack of affordable health insurance for middle and lower-class working families keep healthcare and education reform high on the priority list of issues in the Latino population.

New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson, the only Hispanic governor in the nation, supports Obama emphatically based on these issues, saying the Democratic candidate “has al the right positions” to appeal to the Latino community,according to a USA Today article, if he can win their trust.

Though George W. Bush did well with Latino voters in 2004, the Republican party’s perceived mishandling of immigration reform in congress left the demographic feeling as though they were criminalized for being Hispanic, resulting in 70 percent Democrat Latino vote by the 2006 midterm elections, according to the Pew Report.

While Republican presidential nominee Senator John McCain once enjoyed renown in the Latin American community as a strong advocate of immigration reform, his back-tracking on the issue during his campaign to appease his conservative base has alienated many Hispanics-a demographic the Senator can’t afford to let slip any further.

“There’s been a real rebellion against the Republican party (on the issue of immigration)…They’ve been vilified in the media for three years and they don’t like it. McCain abdicated his position so instead of being seen as a champion, he’s a betrayer. It’s been a sea change,” according to Simon Rosenberg, director of NDN, a liberal think that focuses on Latino issues, in the Guardian article.

Ana Navarro, McCain's adviser on Hispanic affairs, concedes that the party’s support diminished among new Hispanic citizens because of some Republican lawmakers' remarks during the recent congressional debate over proposed immigration reforms, but says the McCain campaign is using Spanish-language ads to convince Hispanics that he has and will continue to fight for their cause.

Senator McCain has also recently endorsed a series of political ads, according to the Washington Times, that will run in areas with concentrated Latino populations vilifying Sen. Obama by linking him to anti-American tirades by Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez. While the effect these scare-tactics will have on the Hispanic voting population is yet unknown, it seems safe to conclude that Senator McCain will have to do more to win the confidence of the Latino community than airing ads in Spanish criticizing his opponent if he hopes to emerge from November 4 as the President of the United States.

Swing counties in swing states

2008-10-21T12:18:00.000-07:00

We often talk of the swing states, but the key to those states also have swing counties that should be closely looked at. Today Politico released polls in two swing counties in North Carolina and Nevada. According to these new polls, Obama has taken the lead in Wake County, North Carolina and Washoe County, Nevada. These are large gains for Obama due to the fact that they were counties won by President Bush in both previous elections. Politico highlighted that these two counties are suburban and exurban areas of the states, which Obama is doing very well in. These polls also showed that "Obama posts wide leads among female voters and independents, and holds even with McCain among male voters."

Where are they today?

2008-10-21T09:17:00.000-07:00

MSNBC's Political Calendar shows where the candidates are out on the campaign trail today, October 21st:

John McCain: Holds rallies in Bensalem, Harrisburg and Pittsburgh, Pa.

Barack Obama: Hosts a jobs summit in Lake Worth and a rally in Miami, Fla.

Sarah Palin: Holds rallies in Reno and Henderson, Nev.

Joe Biden: Holds a rally in Greeley and a community gathering in Commerce City, Co.

Michelle Obama: Holds a rally in Pensacola, Fla.

The double O's: Obama and Oprah

2008-10-21T08:35:00.001-07:00

At the beginning of Obama's emergence in the presidential race, Oprah Winfrey vocalized her support for him. As we have learned with Oprah's endorsements or disapproval of various things throughout her career, Oprah really can make or break a product, book, food, and possibly even the next person in the White House.

Today Drudge reported that Oprah has offered to help Obama with his half-hour advertisements that will begin on October 29th. According to Drudge, she has even offered her Chicago studio to Obama. It is unsure of the Obama campaigns response to her offers, but regardless Oprah's extremely vocal endorsement of him will be sure to make an impact on voters.

Do No Harm

2008-10-21T06:55:00.000-07:00

We’ve had the plumber, the six-pack and Biden. Joe is the buzzword in this election. Traditionally, the role of the Vice President is to "do no harm." Critics praised Gov. Palin and Sen. Biden for doing just that earlier in this month's VP Debate. But Joe, Joe, Joe…

When speaking at an event in Seattle Sunday evening, the Senator who is known for his loose lips reached new heights on the gaffs. He said, “Mark my words… It will not be six months before the world test Barack Obama like they did John Kennedy.” He goes on to say, “Watch we are going to have an international crisis, a generated crisis, to test the mettle of this guy… and he’s going to need help… to stand with him.”

Then comments took a bizarre turn. “Senator Obama won’t have the right response, and we know that because we’ve seen the wrong response from him over and over again during this campaign.”

Obama’s campaign spokesman used his favorite tactic to change the topic, “erratic and ideological Bush-McCain.” If I were him I would work with good old Joe to avoid situations like this.