Mets Tailgate

We've Moved - To Amazin' Avenue

2009-03-01T21:33:00.004-05:00

I've joined the staff at Amazin' Avenue, and will be writing over there from now on. It's a saber-friendly blog, and my posts there will be the same as what I've been writing at Mets Tailgate. AA is unique because readers can post their own articles, and the comments section after each post is user-friendly. I will still be writing a weekly column at Mets Geek, and the archives of past posts will be here. Thanks for reading, and hopefully you'll continue to read my stuff at Amazin' Avenue. You can tell which posts are mine by my username "JamesK." Here are some of my favorite posts at Mets Tailgate:

MLB Network atleast has good taste in music

2009-02-28T18:05:00.002-05:00

My last post criticized the MLB Network's on-air analysis, but the theme song for the network's "30 Teams in 30 Days" is excellent. It's "C'mon C'mon" by the Von Bondies, which is also the theme song of one of my favorite shows "Rescue Me." The actual program is decent, as it previews a major league team with interviews and analysis. The Mets version aired this past Tuesday, but you can re-watch it here pretty soon.

In other news, Johan Santana is experiencing some elbow stiffness. It's too early to panic about this, but it's definitely troublesome. Hopefully the Mets handle this better than they did Ryan Church's concussion problems last season.

High Comedy from the MLB Network

2009-02-25T23:34:00.004-05:00

The first two minutes are an informative look at Baseball Prospectus’s PECOTA projection system. The rest descends into standard former-player-turned-analyst idiocy. If this was an SNL skit, it would be genius. (via BtB)

The money quotes:
Harold Reynolds - “Stats are ridiculous!”
Barry Larkin – “You might be hitting .215, but there’s a quality .215 that does not get translated into the stats” – what?

Talented NL East Shortstops

2009-02-25T07:21:00.002-05:00

Over at Amazin' Avenue, I posted about the five excellent starting shortstops in the NL East. They are Hanley Ramirez, Jose Reyes, Jimmy Rollins, Yunel Escobar, and Cristian Guzman. Ramirez, Reyes, and Rollins were the three best in baseball in 2008, and it should stay that way in 2009.

In the post, I suggest that maybe Reyes's running game has hurt his stamina and is partly to blame for his fading down the stretch each of the last two seasons. Combine his running with never taking days off and playing a grueling position, and it might be smart to limit his stolen bases a bit this season. Sounds like blasphemy, but with a little more energy maybe he could avoid the annual September swoon.

Mets Geek column: A Guide to Mets Blogs

2009-02-24T12:35:00.003-05:00

Check out my latest Mets Geek column, where I gave a quick rundown of the best Mets blogs out there. It's not an exhaustive list, and feel free to comment at Mets Geek or here about any that have been omitted. In the meantime, enjoy this bizarre picture of John Maine and Duaner Sanchez taken during photo day. (via The 'Ropolitans)

Georgetown vs. St. John's to open Citi Field

2009-02-23T14:51:00.002-05:00

A college baseball game between Georgetown and St. John's will be the first game played at Citi Field, on Sunday, March 29th, according to mlb.com. Tickets are just $5 and go on sale Monday, March 2nd. I plan to be in attendance, as it is a cheap way to get an early look at Citi Field, and also because Georgetown is my alma mater. The Hoya basketball team will almost certainly not be alive in the NCAA Tournament (NIT?) that late in March, so I won't be missing any potential games.

Players who will regress or bounce back in 2009

2009-02-21T13:29:00.006-05:00

Using statistical indicators like FIP, LD%, BABIP, and xBABIP I compiled a list of players who I think will regress in 2009 compared to 2008, and who will improve or bounce back in 2009. I included players from all teams, not just the Mets.

Links: Interview, Grading the Offseason, Evans to 2B, and Dusty Baker hilarity

2009-02-19T22:59:00.004-05:00

Some links to check out while wondering if the 17 lbs. Marlon Anderson lost this offseason will improve his 2008 OPS+ of 40:

1) I did an interview with Brian Joura at Mets Online about the 2009 Mets outlook. I answered questions about the Mets injury worries, whether the bullpen is as good as it seems, lineup formation and my prediction for the Mets W-L record. Brian also writes for Fangraphs and his work at both sites is highly recommended.

2) Sam at Amazin' Avenue grades the Mets offseason by looking at the projected WAR ("wins above replacement") of the players acquired and lost. It's a better approach for evaluating the offseason then the dozens of other subjective "report cards" by analysts like Jon Heyman. Heyman rated the Phillies offseason at #1, mainly because they locked up Cole Hamels and Ryan Howard to multi-year deals. That's all well and good, but their only major addition was Raul Ibanez, who they grossly overpaid.

3) Mets Fever noticed that Nick Evans is listed as 3rd on the Mets depth chart at 2nd base, per mets.com. It's an interesting possibility, because it seems Evans doesn't have a position. He isn't a good enough hitter to be valuable at 1B, and his OF defense is suspect.

4) Beyond the Boxscore announced the winner of their graph contest, and it's hilarious. It's a flowchart which takes you into the mind Dusty Baker. Fans of the late FireJoeMorgan know how terrible Baker's baseball analysis is and will especially appreciate it. But anyone who's heard Dusty announce a game and mention "clogging the basepaths" can have a laugh as well.

Evaluating Mets Baserunning

2009-02-19T07:26:00.002-05:00

I wrote an evaluation of the 2008 Mets non-stolen base/caught stealing baserunning at Amazin' Avenue. Using Baseball Prospectus's baserunning stats, we can see how many runs above or below average a player contributes by advancing on groundouts, flyouts, hits, passed balls and wild pitches. Surprise surprise, in 2008 Jose Reyes was the best baserunner on the Mets, and also the best in the National League. David Wright was the worst baserunner on the Mets in 2008.

Mets Geek column: Fun with lineups

2009-02-17T20:50:00.004-05:00

Check out my latest Mets Geek column, where I try to create the optimal Mets lineup based on a couple statistically based methods of lineup construction. No matter what the lineup is, I can say with certainty that it makes no sense for Luis Castillo to bat 2nd. Here's my lineup:

Jose Reyes
David Wright
Carlos Delgado
Carlos Beltran
Daniel Murphy/Fernando Tatis
Ryan Church
Luis Castillo
Brian Schneider
Pitcher

Catcher A vs. Catcher B vs. Catcher C

2009-02-16T23:27:00.007-05:00

Let's compare the following 30+ year-old catchers anonymously, before revealing their names:

2008
Catcher A: 429 PA's, .276/.319/.394, 87 OPS+, 7 HR, threw out 32% of runners stealing
Catcher B: 384 PA's, .257/.339/.367, 87 OPS+, 9 HR, threw out 33% of runners stealing
Catcher C: 157 PA's, .245/.312/.441, 96 OPS+, 7 HR, threw out 22% of runners stealing

Projected 2009
Catcher A: .268/.303/.394, 10 HR
Catcher B: .247/.328/.360, 8 HR
Catcher C: .249/.318/.442, 13 HR

A few hints, which should give away who they are. Catcher A is a future Hall of Famer and current free agent, who has expressed an interest in playing for the Mets. Catchers B and C are currently on the Mets, and their contracts expire after 2009.

Catcher A is Ivan Rodriguez, Catcher B is Brian Schneider, and Catcher C is Ramon Castro. They're all pretty similar as the numbers suggest. What's the point? That there's no need to sign Rodriguez, unless it's for a very cheap and Castro and his $2.5 million contract can be traded. The chances of the Mets signing Rodriguez seems remote anyway, but this shows that he wouldn't be any kind of significant upgrade over the current situation.

Mets sign Livan Hernanez as deep insurance for the rotation

2009-02-15T00:43:00.009-05:00

The Mets signed El Duque's half brother Livan Hernandez to a $1 million minor league contract, with another $1 million in incentives. Hopefully he won't have a chance to meet those incentives, as the 2009 Mets will be in trouble if Livan logs any significant innings pitched. His K/9 plummeted to 3.35 in 2009, and he posted the 13th worst FIP in baseball for pitchers with 150+ IP. If he made a few more starts last year he may have given up 300 hits. Yikes. However, he is an innings eater and has a rubber arm. It pays to have insurance for this rotation, given the various concerns for John Maine, Mike Pelfrey, and Freddy Garcia. All in all, not a bad signing by Omar Minaya considering the price.

Links: Beltran, Mets prospects, more steroids, and Dugout Central

2009-02-14T02:45:00.004-05:00

Some links to check out while celebrating Brett Favre's retirement:

1) Ted Berg at SNY reminds Met fans that Carlos Beltran is still awesome. And he backs it up with objective statistics. Berg also tells us why the Phillies bullpen should regress is 2009.

2) Mike Newman at Mets Geek tells us where the top Mets prospects will be playing in 2009. To be honest, I don't have a vast knowledge of the Mets minor league system, so this is a pretty good read.

3) A quote from Bill James on the steroid situation in baseball (via the venerable Joe Posnanski):

In 36 words:
1) Baseball allowed a situation to develop in which it was in the self-interest of players to use steroids.
2) Now we are very angry with people because they did what the system rewarded them for doing.

4) Dugout Central is a blog which features about a dozen or so writers posting 2-3 pieces a day about various baseball topics. I am not too impressed by the discourse and conclusions drawn by their writers, but writer Tyler Hissey has been churning out some really great stuff over there. Here are a couple solid posts:

- "Mets Overpay for Perez"
- "With Dunn and Abreu Signing, the Phillies' Ibanez Deal That Much Worse"
- "Bowden: Spending for Spending's Sake"

Here are some less-than-stellar pieces at Dugout Central by writers other than Tyler. Unfortunately for them these are the norm rather than the exception:

- "J.P. Ricciardi is MLB's Worst General Managers"
- "Nationals are Dunn-Wrong"
- "Vote: Worst MLB General Manager"

The value of throwing arms and turning double plays

2009-02-12T22:18:00.004-05:00

Fangraphs added new defensive stats this week which tell us how many runs an outfielder saves with his throwing arm and how many runs an infielder saves with his double play turning ability. Over the last few years, outfielders with the best throwing arm include Alfonso Soriano, Jeff Francouer, and Ichiro. The worst arms belong to Brian Giles, Juan Pierre, and old friend Shawn Green. Some of the best at turning double plays include Dan Uggla, Troy Glaus and Jose Reyes. Among the worst are Brian Roberts and Placido Polanco. Here's how many runs the 2009 Mets have saved over the last 3 seasons based on these stats:

David Wright is a strong fielder, but it appears he isn't too great at turning the double play. Jose Reyes had an overall down year in the field in 2008, but his double play runs make it look better. My perception was that Ryan Church had a solid throwing arm in 2008, and the numbers back it up. If he played a qualifying number of innings, he'd have had the 10th best arm in the National League. All that's missing from Fangraphs is a baserunning stat, although Baseball Prospectus has some pretty ones.

Should the Mets explore a trade with the Nationals for an OF?

2009-02-12T10:11:00.004-05:00

I posted at Amazin' Avenue about the surplus of OF's that the Nationals have after signing Adam Dunn. Apparently Dunn will play 1B for the Nats, but the following OF's, 5 of whom bat right-handed, will be on their roster or at least compete for a spot:

- Elijah Dukes
- Willie Harris
- Austin Kearns
- Lastings Milledge
- Wily Mo Pena
- Josh Willingham

Should the Mets look to trade for one of these players?

Links: Castillo, Valentin, Athletes = Rock Stars, and Ichiro pitching

2009-02-10T23:27:00.008-05:00

Some links to check out while wondering why JTIII's Hoyas have gone 3-8 since beating #1 UConn:

1) Rob at Amazin' Avenue wonders if Mets fans should be optimistic about Luis Castillo this season. His conclusion: yes. Castillo stunk in 2008, but he's been a valuable player throughout most of his career. I think it's feasible that he'll hit at a .275/.360/.350 clip. If he does, while playing serviceable defense, I'll be thrilled.

2) The Mets signed Jose Valentin to a minor league deal. Yes, the same Jose Valentin who hit 17 homers and was a nice surprise for the 2006 Mets. I have no problem with this signing, but it would be surprising to see him on the Opening Day roster. If Valentin logs a significant amount of plate appearances this season, the Mets might be in trouble.

3) I'm as sick of discussions about PED's as the next fan, but I really liked this from Tom Tango's blog (see response from Tango in the comments):

"The White American Male Adult (WAMA) thinks nothing of a rock star that is fueled by drugs. Indeed, even if the artist himself says that the drug improves his artistic qualities, this is seen as a good thing. You can take all the vices in the world, pump it into the body of a rock star, and if Sgt Pepper is the result, then the world will be at your feet."

A commenter countered by saying that this was a fallacy, i.e. rock stars are not competing against each other like pro athletes. Tango responded with this:

"The rock star / athlete is not a fallacy. Both are 'competing' against their peers. Rock stars are not subjected to daily competition, but they accumulate wealth in the same way as athletes: by performing better than their peers."

For whatever reason I was fascinated by this point. I've come full circle on this PED stuff. At first, I was like most fans - demonizing the players, hating Barry Bonds, Jason Giambi, etc. However, I really don't hate any of the pre-2004 juicers (punishments for failing steroid tests were only instituted in 2004). Anyone who gets caught now, well that's a different story. I have no sympathy. That is why Bonds, Roger Clemens (although Clemens still sucks at life) and Alex Rodriguez are still Hall of Fame worthy in my book, while Rafael Palmeiro is not.

4) Here is video of a 22 year-old Ichiro pitching in the 1996 NPB All-Star Game (via Neyer). He was throwing 90+ mph back then and apparently he's still got it. He may even pitch in the upcoming WBC:

Mets Geek column: The Mets in pop culture

2009-02-10T09:34:00.003-05:00

Check out my latest Mets Geek column, where I look at the Mets impact on pop culture. It's a long read, but I think it's worth it. Keith Hernandez's "Seinfeld" performance, Bernard Gilkey's "Men in Black" cameo and Darryl Strawberry's appearance on "The Simpsons" are covered. This was fun to write, as pop culture is my other major area of interest in addition to baseball.

Also, I promise no more A-Rod stuff.

Fun with win expectancy: May 28, 2008 - Mets 7, Marlins 6

2009-02-09T23:11:00.006-05:00

In many ways, the Mets-Marlins game on May 28, 2008 was typical of the '08 Mets. Oliver Perez struck out 7, but surrendered 3 home runs and walked 4. Jose Reyes was on base 3 out of 6 turns at-bat. In many ways, this game was not typical of the '08 Mets. Luis Castillo hit a home run (really?). Endy Chavez also went deep (to tie it in the 9th, as we can see in the graph). The bullpen gave up just 1 run in 6 innings, although that 1 was a 12th inning homer off Duaner Sanchez. What made this game stand out was Fernando Tatis's heroics in the bottom of the 12th. Down 7-6, With David Wright on 3rd and Carlos Beltran on 1st, Tatis hit a double into the leftfield corner to drive in 2 runs and win the game. This play added .54 win probability on its own, and was the first of many clutch hits Tatis would deliver in 2008. I was lucky enough to be in attendance at Shea for 3 of Tatis's 6 home field longballs, including one to tie it in the bottom of the 9th against the Cardinals in August. Let's hope he can keep it up in 2009, and fight the expected decline.

Mainstream media and bloggers react to A-Rod

2009-02-08T22:57:00.011-05:00

Smart, rational reactions:
Rob Neyer - My favorite
Tom Tango - 2nd favorite
Beyond the Boxscore
Mets Police
Shysterball
Boogiedown Baseball
Mets Tailgate - Genius
Mike's Mets
Phil Allard - Great job Phil pointing out what a piece of trash this Selena Roberts is. First Duke lax, now this.
FanGraphs
Anthony Rieber

Poor reactions:
Jay Mariotti - What a shock...
Joel Sherman
Jerry Brewer
Ken Davidoff
Bill Madden
Jayson Stark - Stark's outrageous headline: "A-Rod has destroyed game's history"
Ted Keith
Bill Madden - Again! And even sillier the 2nd time around.
Wallace Matthews - If you look up the definition of 'moron' in the dictionary...

I'll add more as I come across them. Noticing a trend here? It's pretty much just the traditional mainstream media sportswriters who are outraged over this. The progressive, rational bloggers/analysts have it right. Not that this is anything out of the norm when it comes to baseball analysis.

Projected Mets 2009 Roster: Heading Into Spring Training

2009-02-08T14:38:00.003-05:00

I've updated the projected Mets roster about once a month this offseason, so here is where it stands right before spring training begins. Remember this is what I think the Mets 2009 roster will look like - not what I want it to look like.

Rotation (5)
1 - Johan Santana
2 - Mike Pelfrey
3 - John Maine
4 - Oliver Perez
5 - Tim Redding/Freddy Garcia

Bullpen (7)
CL - Francisco Rodriguez
J.J. Putz
Pedro Feliciano
Brian Stokes
Sean Green
Duaner Sanchez
Tim Redding/Freddy Garcia

Starting Lineup (8)
Jose Reyes, SS
Carlos Beltran, CF
David Wright, 3B
Carlos Delgado, 1B
Fernando Tatis, LF
Ryan Church, RF
Brian Schneider, C
Luis Castillo, 2B

Bench (5)
Daniel Murphy, OF/2B
Jeremy Reed/Cory Sullivan, OF
Ramon Castro, C
Marlon Anderson, OF/1B/worthless
Alex Cora, 2B/SS

A-Rod allegedly tested positive for steroids: Who cares?

2009-02-07T20:12:00.008-05:00

Who cares? That's my two word take on this Alex Rodriguez nonsense. No one is shocked (except maybe Michael Kay and John Sterling) and I think we all realize that it is not possible to declare any player of the "steroid era" 100% PED free. Not Albert Pujols. Not Greg Maddux or Tom Glavine. Heck, not even Mike Piazza. It sucks that players broke the law, and I'm not happy about it. However, there is nothing less interesting than a discussion about steroids, Barry Bonds, Mark McGwire, BALCO, etc. Yet the media coverage of this garbage is, and will continue to be, neverending.

Major League Baseball and the MLB Players Association screwed up. They turned a blind eye to steroids in return for revenue created by the 1998 home run race and increase in offense that drew fans to the stadiums. That stinks. Since then, MLB has created stiff penalties for players caught using (see J.C. Romero), and generally tried hard to remove PED's from the game. So please, let's move on. Let's not waste our time talking about spineless unnamed sources divulging information about a supposed-to-be anonymous steroid test from 2003. Especially when pitchers and catchers report in a few days.

Graphs: Paul Lo Duca, Win % vs. Attendance, and Omar's roster building model

2009-02-07T00:08:00.009-05:00

Beyond the Boxscore is holding a "graph contest", encouraging readers to make informative, interesting, or funny baseball related graphs. I didn't officially enter these, but took a few minutes out of my day to make them:

Note: wOBA ("weighted on base average") is a great stat which weighs every possible outcome of a plate appearance to gauge offensive value. It also incorporates stolen bases and is weighted against league performance in a given season. In that regard it's similar to OPS+, although wOBA is not adjusted for park factors just yet. wOBA is on a similar scale to OBP: .310 sucks, .330 is about average, anything above .370 is really good. Read here for more.

I never realized how poor the Mets attendance was in their opening season. This next one is courtesty of samt at Amazin' Avenue. I love the use of a Venn Diagram.

Odalis Perez vs. Oliver Perez

2009-02-06T09:05:00.005-05:00

I read on MLBTradeRumors that free agent lefty pitcher Odalis Perez signed a minor league deal with the Nationals, his 2008 team. Earlier this offseason, I suggested the Mets atleast consider him. Look at the following numbers, and tell me what seems strange:

That's right - Oliver Perez will make about $11 million more than Odalis. In 2008, Odalis was slightly more valuable than Ollie and projects to have just slightly less value next year. For once, the Nationals may have executed a steal of a signing. I'm not saying that I'd rather have Odalis over Ollie (I wouldn't), but it's amazing how a good agent and big city cache can artificially drive up a player's value in the free agent market.

Links: Ollie's ice cream, Lederer vs. Heyman, 2008 Mets WAR, and HBO

2009-02-05T00:10:00.006-05:00

Some links to peruse while wondering if you too could put up 50 points vs. the Knicks:

1) David Lennon at Newsday relays to us the real reason Oliver Perez re-signed with the Mets:

"Another three years means seeing Oliver Perez munch on his favorite frozen snack -- Nutty Buddies, King Cones, whatever you call them -- during his postgame interviews. That was perhaps the biggest indication that there was no way Perez was signing with the Yankees, not as long as Joe Girardi keeps a padlock on the ice cream freezer."

He can buy the Nutty Buddie company for $36 million.

2) Rich Lederer at Baseball Analysts offers up a conspiracy theory about Jon Heyman's connection to superagent Scott Boras. Lederer thinks Boras feeds Heyman information about his clients in return for manipulation of the free agent market. I have to say, the evidence Lederer presents is compelling. I'd like to think even Heyman wouldn't be that big of a tool though.

3) I "post-dicted" the 2008 Mets W-L record at Amazin' Avenue, using the WAR ("wins above replacement") spreadsheet from Beyond the Boxscore. Read the post for more details, but WAR says the Mets were an 87 win team in 2008. In reality, they won 89. Pretty close right? WAR is not 100% infallible, but I think it's the best all-encompassing stat we have easy access to.

4) David at NY Sports Dog was invited to an early screening of a new HBO comedy with a baseball connection called "Eastbound & Down." It's produced by Will Ferrell and Adam McKay's production company and stars the hilarious Danny McBride, from "Pineapple Express" and "Tropic Thunder", so it's definitely worth a look. HBO has been surpassed by FX and AMC in producing original programming recently, so I hope for the channel's sake that this show is a hit.

Lowe/Fuentes vs. Perez/Rodriguez

2009-02-03T20:01:00.005-05:00

Derek Lowe and Brian Fuentes
Average annual value of contracts signed this offseason: $23.75 million
Total WAR (wins above replacement) from 2007-2008: 11.6

Oliver Perez and Francisco Rodriguez
Average annual value of contracts signed this offseason: $24.33 million
Total WAR (wins above replacement) from 2007-2008: 7.5

The listed contracts exclude any options. Lowe and Fuentes cost slightly less but are more valuable. OK, I promise I'm done playing Monday Morning Quarterback with this Ollie signing.