Comments on JeffVail.net - Law, Energy, Geopolitics, and Organizational Theory: Crash Course

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2009-06-09T20:28:56.877-06:00

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with respect to Zhou Haiming's comments about sola...

2008-07-12T23:19:00.000-06:00

with respect to Zhou Haiming's comments about solar panels requiring rare earths such as indium and gallium, both of which may be at peak, there should be some awareness of research carried on by various groups with regard to dye-sensitized solar cells which do not use rare earths, namely:
Scientists Create Breakthrough “Stable” Dye-Sensitized Solar Cells
http://www.nextenergynews.com/news08/next-energy-news6.30.08c.html
“Defective” Nanotubes Improve Dye-Sensitive Solar Cell Film by 10x:
http://www.nextenergynews.com/news08/next-energy-news6.18.08a.html
University Students Create Dye-Sensitized Solar Cells From Fruit:
http://www.nextenergynews.com/news1/next-energy-news5.14.08c.html

Comment from a Chinese netizen:I thingk we really ...

2008-07-08T11:25:00.000-06:00

Comment from a Chinese netizen:
I thingk we really should not put too much hope on those so called "alternativ energy".I do not think any of those alternative energy can operate without the aid of fossil fuel,even if some of them could produce postivie net-energy-output.Because all of those alternatvies are based on our currenty industrial complex and infrastructure.Yet our current industrial base and infrastructure is so intimately connected with fossil fuel,that if you want some stuff to be really independent of fossil fuel,you must be sure they can be designed ,manufactured ,transported and serviced without the aid of modern industry and infrastructure .
To illustrate the above point,I just want to make two example to show that even if an alternative energy can generate postive net-energy-output,it may still not be able to replace fossil fuel.
First,fossil fuel not only functions as fuel ,it also is vital to modern chemical industry.Trouble is,some petrochemicals are essential to the machinery equipment we use to colletc those alternative energy,be it wind,solar or something else.The most obvious example is plastic,we cannot produce plastic without fossil fuel,yet plastic acts as insulator for circuit.So without plastic ,which is made from fossil fuel,our ability to transmit and utilize electricity will be severely curtailed,if not destroyed altogether.Those alternative energy all produce electricity(except biomass,which hardly produces a postive net energy),and if we do not have enough plastic,we will really have trouble handling those electricity generated,and those alternatives will not be meaningful energy sources to us.
Second,our transportation system depends on fossil fuel,our trucks ships ,freighters and aircrafts all run on fossil fuel.They can in theory be electrified, but were they to run by electricity,the amount of energy needed would be formidable This is because electricity cannot be readily stored,so we must transform electricity to some form of energy that can be stored( e.g. by batteries) ,and energy loss is inherent in this process of transformation,as indicated by the law of thermodynamic.Since modern industry cannot function without modern transportation facility----raw materials and machine parts must literally travel half way around the globe to be assembled to become the final product ,the energy provided by those alternatives must suffice to power our current transportation system,after taking the energy loss inherent in the transformation process into account.I can think of no alternative energy that satisfies this criteria.Moreover, the building of transportation facilities that can operate without fossil fuel (assuming of cource that one can be built) also takes a lot of energy,so if we were sensible,we should really use the remaining fossil fuel to build it.But of course this is not happening, and even if it were happening,perhaps it would be too late, but now it is still worth a try.After fossil fuel production begin to fall drastically,we will not have enough energy to build a infrastructure which is independent of fossil fuel,and which nevertheless is a sine qua non for the production of things we hope to replace fossil fuel.
Some digression:
I recently found this blog searching informations about ERoEI of solar panels.But now I find solar panels cannot do, because many scarce metals it uses now also appear to peak.Indium and gallium,two elements which are essential to the production of semiconducts ,new generation solar panels (including solar panels produced by the much-touted nanosolar company) and control rods for nuclear reactors,now appear to have peaked,and may be depleted within 10 years.Unlike copper and iron,these elements are very rare in the earth crust,its amount used in a solar panel is also very tiny,as such it cannot be recycled.So,if we use them up,which seems pretty soon,we will not have materials to build solar panels,computer chips,nuclear reactors,et cetera.
Hence,the only reallistic alternative energy now seems to me to be nuclear fusion.Unfortuantely,it is very unlikely to materialize before the shortage fossil fuel causes serious crisis and social upheaval,which will make its developement and implementation all but impossible.

Zhou Haiming,Beijing,China

Hey Jeff,Any idea as to when we'll see another Rhi...

2008-06-26T16:34:00.000-06:00

Hey Jeff,

Any idea as to when we'll see another Rhizome-related post?

No one is a passive observer. Spend all your time ...

2008-06-15T03:06:00.000-06:00

No one is a passive observer.

Spend all your time dreaming of a crash and that's what you will get.

What it really means is you want a crash.
I don't know if it can work out that crash obsessed people can get their wish without making everyone else have it to. That would be nice though. People who want a crash really bad can get their wish and everyone else can move on with their lives.

Its probably related to some type of critical mass thing though. But anyway, waiting around for it and doing nothing, or maybe building a bunker, while obsessively thinking about it is the least constructive thing to do.

But there is a noosphere that effects reality. How people see reality effects life on Earth. Its tangible thing.

I guess this is more for Theo... I think it's impo...

2008-06-12T21:52:00.000-06:00

I guess this is more for Theo... I think it's important to remember that hope is a luxury, and progress is an idea. China is currently putting in a coal-burning power plant every three days, and is one of the most polluted countries in the world. I don't think Green is around any corners for them.

Why don't you think a crash is possible? I guess it's always a tough job predicting the future (I've done a pretty bad job of it during my life) but it seems like a decent bet, maybe a 15 to 1.

Thanks, Zach

I generally concur with Theo Musher, I only disagr...

2008-06-10T02:56:00.000-06:00

I generally concur with Theo Musher, I only disagree with him with regards to China beating us to a greener lifestyle.

One of the big mistakes many peak oil theorists make is assuming that our economic well-being somehow depends on our oil consumption. But the fact is that a huge amount of oil consumption in our country is largely unessential.

As prices rise, behavior changes, demand shrinks somewhat. It will go in waves, but slowly people will buy increasingly efficient vehicles, move closer to where they work, and make a number of other choices.

Many have fretted over all the SUVs sold in the 1990s, describing us as "Up a cul-de-sac in a concrete SUV without gas." But the fact is that we are not. Automobiles have an incredibly short service life; in 5-10 years the average MPG of the average vehicle can increase enormously.

Doom and gloom scenarios are always based on a notion of thinking that is deeply deterministic, insisting that A leads to B leads to C, with seemingly no appreciation that there are a lot of people out there who are considerably more clever than we are. Simply put, a reduction in the flow of oil will not lead to a commensurate reduction in wealth.

For all of these reasons and more, I think what we will witness what appears to be a slow transition into increased urbanism and efficiency.

But there will be pain. Pain is nature's way of telling us to do something different. And we will. Until the next pain arises.

Here is a "worst case scenario"1. Nobody starts an...

2008-06-09T23:05:00.000-06:00

Here is a "worst case scenario"

1. Nobody starts any Green tech start ups related to alternative energy like "nanosolar" All graduates with engineering degrees, simply decide not to.

2. Everyone decides not to have food co-ops. All organic farmers quit and get jobs flipping burgers. "Slow food" becomes dead.

3. No architects or architectural students persue "new Urbanism" "environmental design" "sustainable development" etc. They all decide to build strip malls instead.

4. All entrapreneurs, bussinesses, corporations give up on all green ideas. Like using recycled materials, "service and flow" and "cradle to cradle deign" etc.

5. All building contractors give up on developing "brownfeilds." using low VOC materials. They all decide to only pollute and exploit even if the "triple bottom line" is more profitible.

6. The public in general stops caring about the environment or social issues. All funding for non profit organizations ends.

Animal Planet and National Geographic explorer go off the air and are replaced with "Beverly Hillbillies" reruns.

7. Bad things happen because of all of the above but no one anywhewere in the world sees these bad things as an opportunity for positive change. No one has the capacity for initiative or ingenuity.

I guess I'm a "Roddenberry" now. But anyway, I don...

2008-06-09T10:27:00.000-06:00

I guess I'm a "Roddenberry" now. But anyway, I don't think its inevitable that there will be any type of crash.

I think its more likely that entrapreneurs are going to get rich, building big housing developments of more energy efficient sustainable housing, then the liklihood of people making their own homes into bunkers.

I also think its quite likely that China and then the developing world will overtake the West in the designing of Green and sustainable high standard of living.

But in a way, it comes down to having a degree of faith. But I mean, how much faith does it take to believe a tadpole will eventually become a frog rather than simply dying as a tadpole?

I mean sure some tadpoles die but eventually most become frogs.

Humanity is in the tadpole stage.

Thanks, I've fixed the link, somehow I managed to ...

2008-06-09T07:43:00.000-06:00

Thanks, I've fixed the link, somehow I managed to get an extra address lumped in there.

In case my error dissuaded anyone from visiting that site, it's a very interesting and brief .pdf on annualized passive solar heating...

Jeff,The link to Don Stevens' annualized solar sto...

2008-06-09T06:47:00.000-06:00

Jeff,

The link to Don Stevens' annualized solar storage info. leads to a 404.