Comments on The Blog of Jeff Vail - Litigation, Resilient Systems, Risk Management, Sustainability: Georgia, the New Map, and Oil Pipelines

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Jeff:The oil routes across Georgia that have been ...

2008-08-19T11:14:00.000-06:00

Jeff:
The oil routes across Georgia that have been shutdown are not insignificant.

Why do you think there has not been a bigger response on world oil markets?

Yes, the U.S. summer driving season is winding down but still...

Interesting post and paper. When you look at the m...

2008-08-18T01:09:00.000-06:00

Interesting post and paper. When you look at the map the BTC takes, I wonder why there wasn't a bigger push diplomatically to deal with the issues preventing it from going through Armenia, rather than circumventing it. Maybe its b/c it was easier to get the Georgians on the West's side rather than the Armenians who have a better relationship w/ the Kremlin. I know the geopolitical issues between Yervan, Baku, and Ankara, run very deep, so do the Georgian ones.

I'm thinking of this nation-state vs market-state ...

2008-08-12T08:05:00.000-06:00

I'm thinking of this nation-state vs market-state dichotomy with respect to the Cobell Tribes decision today. It perverts the "rule of law".

Some of the article looks like fear mongering or h...

2008-08-11T19:40:00.000-06:00

Some of the article looks like fear mongering or hyperbole (and the link to Debka doesn't help their case), but several other reputable sources are confirming the naval buildup. I don't think that an increase in naval order of battle in the region necessarily presages action--it can also be explained by normal rotation schedules, exercises, etc. I don't have enough resolution on how common this level of presence is to say how unusual the current US force levels are. What I can say is that carriers aren't really the critical part of any potential conflict with Iran. If we take the most likely (in my opinion) military action, we wouldn't need any carriers at all to conduct an ongoing campaign of precision strikes--you'd want to look for EC-130H deployments, cancellation of B-2 presence at a scheduled exercise or appearance (because they don't need to forward deploy), or possibly B-52 forward deployment to Diego Garcia, among other possibilities. It's still all reading tea leaves. Carriers are, in my opinion, more of a liability than an asset in a potential conflict over the Strait of Hormuz, primarily because their strike capability is not the best at time-sensitive targeting, which is exactly what is most needed in a "keep the Strait open" scenario. They do represent a lot of airpower, but I don't see anything especially worrying yet. It's pretty common to surge carrier battle groups to various places--there have been numerous false alarms of this type over the past few years, so maybe I'm suffering from Carrier-buildup fatigue. We'll see what happens!

This post was linked on The Automatic Earth. Is it...

2008-08-11T12:12:00.000-06:00

This post was linked on The Automatic Earth. Is it true?

http://europebusines.blogspot.com/2008/08/massive-us-naval-armada-heads-for-iran.html