South OC Real Estate Tracker

South OC home stats: Party on?

2009-12-07T05:13:00.000-08:00

The OC Register reported some fairly rosy housing data over the weekend. In short, OC median home price was up for the 22 business days ending Nov. 12, the median price bumped up a bit while sales continued to be up year-over-year.

Comparisons to last fall are difficult. Remember what was going on last year? Financial meltdown ring a bell? Still, there is an undeniable feeling that many expect the market has already been on the mend last year. Here are the numbers ... you decide what you think!

Friday closed sales report

2009-12-04T05:29:00.000-08:00

Another Friday, another closed sales report. Here's a sampling of some of the properties in South OC that have recently changed hands.

26701 Rio Bravo, Lake Forest 92630
Sales price: $430,000
Sales date: 11-27-2009
Previous sales price: $605,000
Previous sales date: 8-25-2006
Change (+/-): -$175,000
Size: 3 beds / 2 baths / 1,493 sq ft
Listing description snippet: "End of cul-de-sac location in gated community! Open floorplan with vaulted ceiling in living room and family room. Newly remodeled: new paint, new carpet. Light wood cabinets in kitchen; recessed lighting and tile flooring in kitchen and bathrooms; mirror closet doors in master bedroom; private backyard."

38 Silkwood, RSM 92688
Sales price: $420,000
Sales date: 11-24-2009
Previous sales price: $467,000
Previous sales date: 12-22-2003
Change (+/-): -$47,000
Size: 3 beds / 3 baths / 1,400 sq ft
Listing description snippet: "You must see this gorgeous corner lot home! It boasts of a gorgeous kitchen with italian granite counter tops, granite sink, beautiful cabinets, great size back yard, .5 bath down stairs, large master bedroom, custom decorating throughout!"

51 Westgate, Laguna Niguel 92677
Sales price: $820,000
Sales date: 11-28-2009
Previous sales price: $630,000
Previous sales date: 4-29-2002
Change (+/-): +$190,000
Size: 5 beds / 4 baths / 3,046 sq ft
Listing description snippet: Bring your check book!Remodeled and decorated...Ready to move right in!Extraordinary westgate cove at bear brand ranch!Small gated community beach close and perfect for your fussiest buyers!No expense spared!It starts at the curb!Landscaped beautifully, custom iron front doors! A real cooks kitchen with 5 burner gas cooktop,stainless dishwashing drawers,compactor and super awesome oven/microwave convection!

26755 Avenida Las Palmas, Dana Point 92624
Sales price: $580,000
Sales date: 12-2-2009
Previous sales price: $599,000
Previous sales date: 8-08-2003
Change (+/-): -$19,000
Size: 1,777 sq ft
Listing description snippet: "Beach close Duplex in desirable area of Capo Beach, ocean side of freeway. Front unit is 2 bedroom, 2 bath. Back unit is 1 bedroom, 1 bath. Ready to move in, units have been remodeled: kitchens, baths, windows, carpet, tile, paint. Cottage style living, no one above or below. High beam ceilings, private courtyard entry, nice landscaped yard. Each unit has one car garage and one driveway parking. Separate laundry room."

Auction style in Nellie Gail

2009-12-03T05:49:00.000-08:00

It's on! You've got just one chance to (literally) bid up this Nellie Gail property. Don't even look at the asking price...it's just the "suggested opening bid."

27642 Hidden Trail Road, 92653
Asking price: $1,995,000
Previous sales price: $1,600,000
Previous sales date: 8/25/09

Beds:	5
Baths:	4.5
Sq. Ft.:	7,082
$/Sq. Ft.:	$282
Lot Size:	0.92 Acres
Property Type:	Residential, Single Family
Style:	Two Level, Other
View:	Canyon, City Lights, Mountain, Panoramic
Year Built:	1988
Community:	Laguna Hills
County:	Orange
MLS#:	P711507
Source:	SoCalMLS
Status:	Active
On Redfin:	14 days

From listing: AUCTION - $1,995,000 Suggested Opening Bid - See Remarks, Beautiful Custom Estate in Nellie Gail, Large 40,000sf Equestrian Lot in prime Nellie Gail neighborhood with panoramic views, gated entry, open floorplan, grand entrance with spiral staircase, large family room with full bar, gourmet kitchen, office/library on main floor, large master retreat with fireplace & private deck, backyard perfect for entertaining with pebble-coat pool, spa, built-in BBQ area, Marble fireplace, stained leaded glass windows, instant hot water in kitchen sink, (2) central vacuum systems

We wish we knew how much the current owner expects to pull once everything is done .... $2.1 million? $2.3? More?

One thing to note is this property went for $2.6 million at the peak in 2006. You don't suppose this property has magically appreciated back near there, do you?

Us either. We'll keep our eyes peeled to see what this one eventually goes for.

Back and forth

2009-11-30T23:07:00.000-08:00

South OC real estate made multiple headlines recently on the OC Register real estate blogs. First, Jon Lansner reports how the top five "hottest" mini markets are in South OC.

By "hot," the report refers to Steve Thomas' market time calculation. Thomas says that Ladera Ranch, Lake Forest, Portola Hills, Aliso Viejo and RSM - in that order - have the highest amount of demand relative to supply of homes for sale in OC.

We also know thanks to the excellent Mortgage Insider Blog, here are the top 6 areas with the highest percentage of distressed sales relative to total properties on the market: RSM, Anaheim, Portola Hills, Santa Ana, La Habra, Aliso Viejo.

What does it mean? It means there are demand for lower-priced properties in these areas because there are some there. It also means there are many more borrowers in trouble in these areas who may or may not be able to keep their homes. If not, then we wouldn't be surprised if there were enough buyers lining up to absorb the properties (read: first-time buyers and investors leading the charge to purchase livable properties at a discount relative to bubble prices) and push them through the system.

Turkey hangover

2009-11-27T11:28:00.000-08:00

Here's to hoping you had a great Thanksgiving. As we do on many Fridays, we're going to review some of the South OC properties that have recently sold.

922 Santa Ana St, Laguna Beach 92651
Sales price: $850,000
Sales date: 11-23-2009
Previous sales price: $1,365,000
Previous sales date: 3-14-2006
Change (+/-): -$615,000
Size: 3 beds / 3 baths / 2,000 sq ft
Listing description snippet: "Sunset catalina island ocean view! Gorgeous and spacious custom remodel! 2000 sq ft with 3 seperate bedrooms with 3 full remodeled baths! Travertine bath with soaking tub in master suite! Gourmet kitchen with island, granite counters, stainless steel appliances, wine refrigerator and more!"

27191 Calle Caballero, SJC 92675
Sales price: $345,000
Sales date: 11-20-2009
Previous sales price: $315,000
Previous sales date: 9-26-2003
Change (+/-): +$30,000
Size: 2 beds / 2 baths / 1,303 sq ft
Listing description snippet: "Wow _ you should see her now! Brand new flooring, new entry, notice the gorgeous front door, this has been so beautifully remodeled and your buyer will be delighted. Major remodel done a few years ago including granite counters, stainless steel appliances, oak cabinets, smooth ceilings and baths with tile and upgraded fixtures. New front door..."

8 La Salle, Ladera Ranch 92694
Sales price: $618,000 Sales date: 11-25-2009
Previous sales price: $503,000
Previous sales date: 5-14-2003
Change (+/-): +$115,000
Size: 4 beds / 3 baths / 2,300 sq ft
Listing description snippet: "Great, Quite Cul De Sac Location, no one behind. Walk to award winning schools, recreation, pools, clubhouse,tennis, walking trails. Mountain views from the back yard and master suite. Terrific floor plan. Large family room open to light and airy kitchen. Large living and dinning room. Pride of ownership shows with the recent remodel of wood floors and granite."

Happy Thanksgiving

2009-11-26T09:59:00.000-08:00

To everyone...have a great Thanksgiving holiday with your family and friends! We'll be back tomorrow with a new post.

2002 rollback in San Juan

2009-11-24T05:15:00.000-08:00

It's Thanksgiving week, so you might expect us to be all cliche and post about things we're thankful for. We just ... might ... do it.

We will do it. Phhhbt!

Here's to being thankful that insane bubble prices of yesteryear are being "corrected" by the market today...

29562 Westmont Ct, San Juan Capistrano, 92675
Asking price: $249,900
Bank price: $453,452
Back to bank date: 6/24/09

Beds:	2
Baths:	2
Sq. Ft.:	1,316
$/Sq. Ft.:	$190
Lot Size:	1,968 Sq. Ft.
Property Type:	Residential, Condominium
Style:	Two Level, Other
Year Built:	1974
Community:	San Juan North
County:	Orange
MLS#:	S595063
Source:	SoCalMLS
Status:	Active
On Redfin:	18 days

From listing: N/A

No real listing description and no additional pictures. Is there anything to know about this property beyond the physical basic features of the property and the bank's asking price?

As you can see, the bank took this property back a few months ago. Now, it's been listed at a price that is below the 2002 price of $289,500. Seven years of bubble appreciation is gone, and now it's time for this property to be flushed out of the system and picked up by the highest bidder.

Welcome to the reality of the market in 2009...be thankful it's no longer the 2005 real estate market if you're a buyer!

Weekend closed sales report

2009-11-21T11:18:00.000-08:00

Here's another look at a handful of South OC properties that have changed hands recently. As usual, note the posted sales price doesn't include any other side arrangements between the buyer and seller.

34 Paseo Vis, San Clemente 92673
Sales price: $415,000
Sales date: 11-19-2009
Last asking price: $399,900-$449,900
Previous sales price: $378,000
Previous sales date: 8/5/2009
Change between sales: +$37,000
Size: 3 beds / 3 baths / 1,650 sq ft
Listing description snippet: "Highly upgraded santalana townhome; no one above or below: corner unit. Hardwood floors in living room, dining room, kitchen and half bathroom, new carpet upstairs, new paint, gourmet kitchen with white cabinets stainless steel appliances, black granite countertop, huge pantry, recessed lighting; granite fireplace in living room, 9' ceilings downstairs and upstairs; wide baseboard; light and bright; private patio."

33742 Via De Agua, SJC 92675
Sales price: $625,000
Sales date: 11-17-2009
Last asking price: $640,000
Previous sales price: $642,322 (REO)
Previous sales date: 7/31/09
Size: 6 beds / 3 baths / 2,825 sq ft
Listing description snippet: San juan capistrano home that is close to beach access. Backs to a slope. Entry with marble floors, curved staircase, volume ceilings and skylight. New paint and carpet. Main floor bedroom or den.

6 Luna Ct, Ladera Ranch 92694
Sales price: $699,000
Sales date: 11-17-2009
Last asking price: $699,000
Previous sales price: $660,000
Previous sales date: $660,000
Change (+/-): +$39,000
Size: 4 beds / 3 baths / 2,200 sq ft
Listing description snippet: "PREMIUM LARGE CORNER LOT! This beautiful home is situated on one of the largest lots in the Tether Moon development. Extremely open floor plan with vaulted ceilings throughout living room, dining room and entry way"

30512 N Hampton Rd, Laguna Niguel 92677
Sales price: $575,000
Sales date: 11-17-2009
Last asking price: $565,000
Previous sales price: $572,000 (not the back to the bank price)
Previous sales date: 12/23/02
Change (+/-): +$3,000
Size: 3 beds / 3 baths / 2,415 sq ft
Listing description snippet: "Single loaded cul-de-sac street with area view! Double door entry. New carpet. Some replaced windows. Living Room with vaulted ceilings and fireplace. Kitchen has replaced counters and wood floors. Main floor den or 4th bedroom. Master bedroom with view deck and upgraded Master bathroom. "
*Property was an REO

Deep cut in Talega

2009-11-19T07:00:00.000-08:00

Nothing says true wealth like the ability to slash a full "average" house's worth ($557k) off of your asking price and still have a $1.9 million listing. Either that or blind greed before for listing your property for more than $500k above what it should have been before.

We report, you decide...

22 Corte Vizcaya, San Clemente 92673
Asking price: $1,898,000
Previous sales price: $2,505,000
Previous sales date: 11/10/05

Beds:	5
Baths:	6.5
Sq. Ft.:	5,500
$/Sq. Ft.:	$345
Lot Size:	0.32 Acres
Property Type:	Residential, Single Family
Style:	Two Level, Mediterranean, Tuscan
View:	Golf Course, Hills, Faces Northwest
Year Built:	2001
Community:	Talega
County:	Orange
MLS#:	L31401
Source:	SoCalMLS
Status:	Active
On Redfin:	8 days

From listing: Previously listed for $2,455,000 - now reduced by $557,000!!! Tremendous value!!! Located on a cul-de-sac street just above the 5th tee of Telega Golf Course, view and exposure are southerly. Tuscan style: motor court entry lined with olve trees, rosemary. .. vine covered walls, stone and wood pergolas, rustic wood garage doors with iron hardware. Home theater/screening room that evokes a by-gone Hollywood era. State-of-the-art security surveillance system. Architectural features: Massive iron & glass front door, travertine and aged walnut plank floors, custom dark wood wainscoting, baseboards, double-crown and waffled wood ceilings, built-in bureaus/shelves, fresco walls & ceilings. .. Uncommon attention to detail and craftsmanship one would expect in only the finest coastal estate.

Too bad they can't spell "Talega" in the listing...as in "Telega Golf Course." We will, however, give them credit for setting the scene fairly well with the listing description. And we think the theater is sweet.

But what about the price? If you were the owner, and you felt you realistically needed to drop the asking price from your previous attempt to sell by more than $500k, would you be embarrassed at all at how poorly you (or your agent, though the owner is technically responsible for final approval in terms of price) perceived the value of this property the first time around? As a buyer with a large wad of cash, would you be less willing to deal with these owners because you think they were out of touch?

Either way, if this property sells it will be for a whole lot less than the previous bubble price - $607,000 less that is, not including any sales costs.

October Home Stats

2009-11-18T07:16:00.000-08:00

Here's a look at the latest DataQuick stats for the month of October, published recently by the OC Register.

Call the landscaper first

2009-11-16T05:12:00.000-08:00

How would you like to buy an unlandscaped short sale property in Ladera Ranch? Once you spend the money putting in the yard, it would cost you about what it sold for new in 2006! Sounds fishy to us...

44 Christopher St, 92694
Asking price: $900,000
Previous sales price: $1,050,500
Previous sales date: 10/5/06

Beds:	4
Baths:	3
Sq. Ft.:	-
Lot Size:	8,600 Sq. Ft.
Property Type:	Residential, Single Family
Style:	Two Level
Year Built:	2006
Community:	Ladera Ranch
County:	Orange
MLS#:	I09119715
Source:	MRMLS
Status:	Active
On Redfin:	5 days

From listing: Beautiful home with many upgrades. Marble upgrades throughout, granite countertops and top quality carpet. Backyard is not landsaped. Master bedroom and laundry room are downstairs.

This listing has no business being a million-dollar listing...from the one outside photo to the uninspired listing description. We're sure there's a reason to the lack of effort (and there could be many of them) but we won't speculate.

We will, however, wonder out loud if this house in its current state has any business being price anywhere near $900k - that's about a 14% discount off the peak. How about you rent a 3,800 sq ft house also in Ladera Ranch with the same number of bedrooms and bathrooms for $4,450 a month?

You couldn't even make an honest comparison between the two, considering our subject property is currently unfit for comfortable living because of the lack of landscaping. But if we were to assume that our subject is really worth $4,450 a month to a renter, then a generous GRM of 180 yields a target value of $801,000 - assuming, of course, the house is finished and ready to roll.

Friday closed sales report

2009-11-13T07:06:00.000-08:00

Hey, if the Real Housewives short sale mansion can make it to escrow, then these properties can make it all the way to closing! Here's our regular look at some of the properties that have closed recently. Remember, sales price does not necessarily include any other deals/incentives the buyer and seller may also have worked out.

41 Hinterland Way, Ladera Ranch 92694
Sales price: $295,000
Sales date: 11-10-2009
Previous sales price: $695,000
Previous sales date: 12-03-2007
Change (+/-): -$400,000
Size: 2 beds / 3 baths / 1,350 sq ft
Listing description snippet: "Gorgeous & upgraded home with 2 car attached garage.This beautiful home offers: large living room w/a cozy fireplace,built-in entertainment center & a ceiling fan.Laminated wood flooring throughout downstairs.Large kitchen with upgraded cabinets & appliances. Plantation shutters throughout downstairs. Large master bedroom with a balcony."

6 Serenity Lane, Laguna Niguel 92677
Sales price: $650,000
Sales date: 11-8-2009
Previous sales price: $759,000
Previous sales date: 12-28-2004
Change: -$109,000
Size: 4 beds / 3 baths / 2,093 sq ft
Listing description snippet: "What a setting!! This lovely home has such a nice setting from the street. Situated on a private large lot with beautiful curb appeal and lots of privacy. No one across the street..Just a lush landscaped greenbelt."

26446 Paseo Carmel, SJC 92675
Sales price: $139,900
Sales date: 11-1-2009
Previous sales price: $340,000
Previous sales date: 6-21-2005
Change: -$200,100
Size: 2 beds / 1 baths / 897 sq ft
Listing description snippet: "Investors dream. Lovely town home style condo with no one above. New kitchen and bath, all new appliances and cabinets, bathroom totally remodeled. All new paint and carpet. Recessed lighting/crown molding in kitchen. Built-ins, walk-in closet, pedestal sink, enclosed covered pati0. Association pool, parks, playground. In the heart of san juan capistrano, easy access to freeway, beaches, parks, mission, amtrak, schools, restaurants, shopping."
Blogger's note: This is a 59% discount off the bubble sales price (this was an REO)

3 Avenida Brio, San Clemente 92673
Sales price: $365,500
Sales date: 10-31-2009
Previous sales price: $319,000
Previous sales date: 9-13-2002
Change: +$46,500
Size: 2 beds / 2 baths / 1,367 sq ft
Listing description snippet: "This is a regular sale!!! Not a short-sale & can easily close without dealing with banks, negotiators or asset managers!!! Wonderful location at the end of the cul de sac overlooking a tree-lined greenbelt! Light & bright open floor plan with warm wood laminate flooring, custom maple cabinetry, custom paint, upstairs separate laundry rooom, 2 full baths, oversized 2 car attached garage with direct access!"

Lots of lookers in Ladera

2009-11-11T07:04:00.000-08:00

This Ladera Ranch property is one of the most-viewed OC listings on Redfin. Why? It's a "celebrity" listing, of course! You may know the saga of Tamra Barney. This is her house.

If you wanted to make an offer, you may be a bit late to the party considering it's in the backup offers stage.

3 Pointe Circle, 92694
Asking price: $1,149,000
Previous sales price: $1,320,500
Previous sales date: 9/8/05

Beds:	5
Baths:	5.5
Sq. Ft.:	4,300
$/Sq. Ft.:	$267
Lot Size:	8,937 Sq. Ft.
Property Type:	Residential, Single Family
Style:	Two Level, Tuscan
View:	Hills, Mountain
Year Built:	2005
Community:	Ladera Ranch
County:	Orange
MLS#:	S583289
Source:	CARETS
Status:	Backup Offers Accepted
On Redfin:	108 days

From listing: Highly Upgraded Tuscan Home! One of the most desirable locations within the gated community of Covenant Hills. 5 bedrooms all with full bathrooms, Office with built-in bookcase, Loft, Master Bedroom retreat, Hardwood floors with custom stone inlay. Large gourmet kitchen opens to family room and is complete with granite counters, upgraded appliances, island and breakfast nook. The yard is an entertainer's dream with a saltwater pool, spa with waterfall, built-in and covered grill with prep area, bar, fireplace, firepit and incredible landscaping! You will love the details, including crown molding and rustic wood beams! This is a MUST SEE!

Thanks to a nifty new feature on Redfin, we can see that the Coto Housing Blog already talked about this property. Where is this? Right on the listing. Very cool...

We also noticed this declaration on all Redfin listings that are short sales: "This home is flagged as a short sale. We're sorry, we don't tour or write offers on short sales because of the slim chance that you'll get the home. " How very negative of them. Or truthful.

We like Ladera, but it always brings us back to this dilemma: If you had, say, $1.149 million to spend, and you were comparing this Ladera Ranch property to one in Newport Coast with ocean views, which one would you take? We'd still lean towards the ocean, even though you're getting significantly less space than in Ladera.

Down and Out in Lake Forest

2009-11-09T05:41:00.000-08:00

This Lake Forest property was once sold for almost $700,000. Now, it's a vacant REO that's seen better days. The street name is fairly appropriate for this one considering its sorry state....

22271 Cripple Creek, 92630
Asking price: $440,550
Previous sales price: $675,000
Previous sales date: 12/6/05

Beds:	4
Baths:	1.75
Sq. Ft.:	1,674
$/Sq. Ft.:	$263
Lot Size:	6,600 Sq. Ft.
Property Type:	Residential, Single Family
Style:	One Level, Ranch
Year Built:	1979
Community:	Lake Forest North
County:	Orange
MLS#:	S595068
Source:	CARETS
Status:	Active
On Redfin:	3 days

From listing: Great Value! End of the cul-de-sac, single level home with four bedrooms. Kitchen has a breakfast area. The living and dining rooms are combined. Two car garage with a driveway. The house needs someone to come in and bring it back to its former glory.

As you can see, this house previously sold for $675,000. If you were to put 20% down in 2005 (chuckle), and you got a 5% interest rate with a 30-year fixed-rate loan (chuckle again), your monthly mortgage payment would have been $2,899. There's also the little matter of having $135,000 laying around as a 20% downpayment.

Currently, if you were to put 20% down and got an interest rate of 5%, your mortgage payment would be about $1,892 per month. You would "only" have to come up with $88,110 for a downpayment. Chump change!

Assuming the property sells for the current asking price, it represents a 35% decline in value in about 4 years. A few years ago, that would have seemed unfathomable. Today, it's not too surprising.

Friday closed sales report

2009-11-06T05:01:00.000-08:00

Here's a check of some properties that recently sold in South OC. By the way, if you're into Redfin and its abundance of real estate info like all the rest of us, did you know they're now posting recently sold properties (pics and all)? Assuming, that is, that their Web site recovered from all its technical issues this morning.

Let's take a look...

515 Reed St., Laguna Beach 92651
Sales price: $1,262,500
Sales date: 10-30-2009
Previous sales price: $1,239,000
Previous sales date: 10-02-2006
Change (+/-): +$23,500
Size: 2 beds / 1 baths
Listing description snippet: "Rare flat lot zoned for 2 units near the heart of downtown Laguna Village. Large parcel with street frontage and alley frontage so two separate homes would each have excellent access and parking options. Currently has an adorable vintage cottage with detached garage, so live in or have rental income while developing."

90 Matisse Circle, Aliso Viejo 92656
Sales price: $430,000
Sales date: 11-4-2009
Previous sales price: $555,000
Previous sales date: 6-16-2004
Change (+/-): -$125,000 Size: 3 beds / 3 baths / 1,465 sq ft
Listing description snippet: "Spacious floor plan, highly upgraded & model perfect! Awesome floor plan offering a huge living room with soaring cathedral ceilings, fireplace and separate dining room. Stunning kitchen with new designer granite countertops, stainless steel appliances including a brand new oven & microwave, high end bosch dishwasher, stainless steel sink, recessed lighting and breakfast bar. Powder room with upgraded granite countertop and brushed nickel faucet."

28661 Abantes, Laguna Niguel 92677
Sales price: $755,000
Sales date: 10-26-2009
Previous sales price: $1,275,000
Previous sales date: 4-19-2007
Change (+/-): -$520,000 Size: 4 beds / 3 baths / 3,010 sq ft
Listing description snippet: (REO) "Spacious home with lovely upgrades. Move right in! Remodeled Kitchen with Viking Stove, cherry cabinets, granite counter. Remodeled Master bathroom with spa tub, travertine flooring, fabulous Shower and custom built-ins. All closets feature custom organizers. Premier location with the gated community of Rolling Hills."

27 Calle Verdadero, San Clemente 92673
Sales price: $590,000
Sales date: 10-31-2009 Previous sales price: $809,500
Previous sales date: 12-20-2004
Change (+/-): -$219,500
Size: 4 beds / 3 baths / 2,400 sq ft
Listing description snippet: "Gorgeous Talega Home w/ tons of upgrades-4 BR & 3 Baths (One BR & Bath Down). An Elegant Master w/ Walk-in Closets, dual sinks, Separate tub & shower, Upstairs Laundry w/ Sink & Window. Custom Upgrades incl, Wrought Iron & Wood Bannister, Magnificant Cherrywood Floors..."

Smoking hot South OC markets

2009-11-05T05:26:00.000-08:00

Photo credit: Jordan Larrigan

South OC makes up four of the five "hottest" markets, according to the math of Steve Thomas. That was the headline on the OC Register real estate blog recently. Those mini markets are Foothill Ranch (1.0 months of supply), Aliso Viejo (1.0 months of supply), Lake Forest (1.1 months of supply) and Dove Canyon (1.3 months of supply).

On the other end of the spectrum we have luxury markets where there are fewer buyers, and hence, properties take longer to move. Laguna Beach was second slowest (8.5 months), lagging only CdM. Coto also made that list, ranking fifth "worst" with a market time of 7.4 months.

The more we think about the real estate market recently, the more it makes us scratch our heads. You probably heard that the movement for extending the homebuying tax credit is moving forward. And, maybe you also read about how the Fed is still keeping interest rates near zilch to help prop up the economy. With the government and other agencies working so hard to prop up housing, will true fundamentals ever return?

Nothing's changed in Laguna

2009-11-03T05:46:00.000-08:00

This Laguna Beach listing is an interesting commentary - the seller believes that a house that was "totally rebuilt" at the peak of the market should command the same price as was spent then, sans post-bubble pricing adjustment.

23 Emerald Bay, 92651
Asking price: $4,800,000

Beds:	3
Baths:	2.75
Sq. Ft.:	2,711
$/Sq. Ft.:	$1,771
Lot Size:	6,200 Sq. Ft.
Property Type:	Residential, Single Family
Style:	Two Level, Mediterranean
View:	Coastline, Ocean, Panoramic, Park/Green Belt, Water, White Water
Year Built:	2006
Community:	North Laguna
County:	Orange
MLS#:	L30699
Source:	CARETS
Status:	Active
On Redfin:	77 days

From listing: House totally rebuilt in 2006. Very nice. View looks directly at Emerald Bay beach and the ocean. View cannot be blocked. Total house square footage including decks and garage is 3389 per plans.

Leave it to Emerald Bay to kick the housing bubble. There is some serious wealth in this area, but we're not sure how you would make the argument that this property is obviously worth $4.8 million while this one should be $4.5 million. At these kind of dollar amounts, it's really all about personal preference. You can expect that all the houses at this price to be nice and have nice views.

Assuming the property can be sold for the current asking price, it would mean the property has appreciated 422% in about a decade considering that it went for $920,000 in 1998. That's a rate of about 38% per year every year - pretty nice! Of course, the question is raised that if the house had not been totally rebuilt, it would not likely be worth the same amount today. So, if the sellers can find someone to pay their price, we would reason that they're coming out a winner.

Not so good in Laguna Hills

2009-11-02T08:20:00.001-08:00

Not only are a few arguing the market is past the bottom, they see what approaches double-digit appreciation by the summer. If the market as a whole went up almost 10%, and swept up this property with it, would you be willing to pay that much more for this Laguna Hills property?

24692 Julie Ave, 92653
Asking price: $649,000
Previous sales price: $395,000
Previous sales date: 8/14/00

Beds:	5
Baths:	2.75
Sq. Ft.:	2,900
$/Sq. Ft.:	$224
Lot Size:	8,125 Sq. Ft.
Property Type:	Residential, Single Family
Style:	Two Level, Modern
Year Built:	1978
Community:	Laguna Hills
County:	Orange
MLS#:	V09110998
Source:	CARETS
Status:	Active
On Redfin:	17 days

From listing: Very nice beautifully maintained home with open floorplan & high ceilings, set back from the street yet has a good size backyard w/ covered patio, grassy area & side patio. A gardener's delight, landscaped yard has brick trimmed planters on both sides of the house. Freshly painted inside & out. Main level has four bedrooms including a master suite, two baths, huge living rm, dining rm w/ french doors that opens to side patio, big cheerful kitchen with newly reglazed countertop, family rm w/ fireplace that opens to covered patio, yard & spa. Dont miss the spacious suite on the 2nd level accessed thru the door to the garage. It has a living rm, huge walk-in closet and a cozy bedrm, dressing area and bathrm. The garage has room for one car, partly used for stairway access, but driveway has parking area for at least 4 more cars, plus a covered carport big enough for a boat or RV. Truly a delightful home in a great convenient location to shops and freeway access.

This is one of those that we wouldn't really want to own at any price because the property just isn't our thing. The architecture and layout is dated, plus you back to a shopping center, which backs to the freeway. Yikes.

As Redfin says, the current owners have held this property for almost a decade and are now ready to move on. To be more precise, they've already moved on as you can see from the fact that the house is empty.

If one were to look at asking price per square foot, at $224 it doesn't seem too outrageous - considering the house is 2,900 square feet. But the price tag of nearly $650k for this 30-year-old house without many frills seems like a reach.

But, if there is the appreciation predicted by First American CoreLogic (referenced at the top of this post), this property could soon be well over $700k by summer. Chuckle.

Friday closed sales report

2009-10-30T05:15:00.000-07:00

We're back once again on this Halloween Eve with a sampling of just a few of the many South OC properties to recently change hands.

31952 Pleasant Glen Rd, Trabuco Canyon 92679
Sales price: $535,000
Sales date: 10-21-2009
Previous sales price: $442,000
Previous sales date: 6-10-2003
Profit/loss: +$93,000
Size: 3 beds / 3 baths / 1,700 sq ft
Listing description snippet: "Live the best of the orange county lifestyle in this beautiful home located in the wonderful community of robinson ranch. The highly upgraded 3 bedroom and 2 1/2 baths floorplan features a gourmet kitchen with granite, family room with an upgraded fireplace, soaring ceilings and many others upgrades that make this home truly turn-key."

123 Sklar St, Ladera Ranch 92694
Sales price: $376,500
Sales date: 10-26-2009
Previous sales price: $535,000
Previous sales date: 12-07-2005
Profit/loss: -$158,500
Size: 3 beds / 3 baths / 1,602 sq ft
Listing description snippet: N/A

7 Matinee Ct, Aliso Viejo 92656
Sales price: $359,900
Sales date: 10-22-2009
Previous sales price: $379,000
Previous sales date: 11-20-2003
Profit/loss: +$19,100
Size: 2 beds / 3 baths / 1,327 sq ft
Listing description snippet: N/A

25022 Wilkes Pl, Laguna Hills 92653
Sales price: $575,000
Sales date: 10-26-2009
Size: 4 beds / 3 baths / 2,442 sq ft
Listing description snippet: Remodeled view home on single loaded cul-de-sac. Kitchen w/granite counters and center island complete with stainless appliances. Master bedroom features retreat with fireplace. Large bedrooms and updated bathrooms.

Whacked out photos

2009-10-29T05:34:00.000-07:00

As we inch closer to Halloween, we'd like to share a couple "interesting" photos off the MLS with you. The photos are downright scary - at least as far as real estate listings go. Nobody's expecting Ansel Adams, but we do think it's realistic not to attach these kinds of photos to the listing...

From: 31578 CALLE LA PURISIMA #65, San Juan 92675. Great preview of some of the work I would have to do as a potential buyer.
From: 305 Via Presa, San Clemente 92672. So, we've established there is a window in the bathroom. Cool.
From: 136 Avenida Presidio #6, San Clemente 92672. Look, Ma! This photo tells us this place has doors and a closed closet door.
From: 14 Elk Grove, Laguna Niguel 92677. Nothing's wrong with this photo. We just think it's crazy what the stairs look like in this $6 million property.

Just don't get it

2009-10-28T05:23:00.000-07:00

There are a few things about this Ladera Ranch that leave us scratching our head. But, if Redfin says a buyer has been found and the property is in the accepting backup offers stage, we'll buy it. Figuratively, not literally.

15 Lanesboro Rd, 92694
Asking price: $675,000
Previous sales price: $560,000
Previous sales date: 5/28/03

Beds:	4
Baths:	3
Sq. Ft.:	2,768
$/Sq. Ft.:	$244
Lot Size:	5,859 Sq. Ft.
Property Type:	Residential, Single Family
Style:	Two Level, Spanish
View:	Has View
Year Built:	2003
Community:	Ladera Ranch
County:	Orange
MLS#:	S588256
Source:	CARETS
Status:	Backup Offers Accepted
On Redfin:	53 days

From listing: This Beautiful 4 Bedroom 3 Bathroom Home Is Ideally Located At The End Of A Cul-De-Sac In The Sterling Glen Tract Of Ladera Ranch. This Floor Plan Is Very Open And Has Many Windows And Doors That Offer Natural Light And Are Accented By Plantation Shutters. The Main Floor Bedroom Is Currently Being Used As An Office, However It Could Easily Be Used As The 4th Bedroom. The Large Master Suite Has A Joining Retreat Area That Could Be Converted To A 5th Bedroom If Needed. This Home Has Extensive Stone Flooring Throughout The First Level And Carpeting Up The Stairway And Into The Bedrooms. The Lush Trees And Vines In The Backyard Offer Much Privacy And Is Ideal For Entertaining Family And Friends.

We'll try to ignore the title case in the listing description if you will. At the top of this blog entry, we mentioned that a couple things with this listing confused us. In no particular order, they are:

Who in the name of Martha Stewart leaves a trailer parked in the driveway for your MLS photo?
Then, why would you make said photo with trailer the first image people see of the property?
It's generally understood that South OC real estate in general - particularly a bubble-happy pocket like Ladera Ranch - is barely clinging to 2003 pricing (at best). Why would you list your short sale property for $115,000 above the previous sales price?
As a buyer, would you jump in to buy a short sale at all?
Would you then agree to buy said short sale for well above the 2003 price?

In reality, our questions mean nothing because it appears a buyer and seller have successfully come together. Just another South OC pending sale.

Fright week begins!

2009-10-26T05:07:00.000-07:00

It's Halloween folks...you know what that means here in Southern California? It means a continuation of 80-plus degree weather and pine trees the same green color they were all year, of course!

Let's begin this week with something "scary" - at least to us. It's the prospect of paying $372 per square foot for this unremarkable-looking 2-bedroom house in Mission Viejo. Someone appears read to, considering it's in the backup offers accepted stage...

22802 La Quinta Drive, 92691
Asking price: $485,000

Beds:	2
Baths:	2
Sq. Ft.:	1,305
$/Sq. Ft.:	$372
Lot Size:	5,890 Sq. Ft.
Property Type:	Residential, Single Family
Style:	One Level, Contemporary
View:	Courtyard
Year Built:	1970
Community:	Mission Viejo North
County:	Orange
MLS#:	S586722
Source:	CARETS
Status:	Active
On Redfin:	63 days

From listing: COMPLETE CUSTOM REMODEL. .Over $150,000 in upgrades on this single story Beauty. Situated on an oversized corner lot in the heart of Mission Viejo, just down the street from Mission Viejo Lake, Seville Park, golfing & shopping. For starters, this home has a fabulous OPEN floorplan with no barrier wall between the living, dining & kitchen area + volume ceilings adding to the spaciousness. Gourmet Kitchen with every amenity a cook could ask for and then some. Granite slab counters & sinks, Gas cook top with Stainless Steel Range Hood, Custom made cabinetry & hardware with pullouts & easy glide drawers, built-in wine cooler, vegetable sink in center island with 2nd disposal. Master suite features dual closets (custom made doors), black-out shades & a luxurious master bath. OVERSIZED jetted jacuzzi tub, surrounded in Granite & custom stone/wall treatments. Step outside to a wonderful wrap around yard with custom inlaid pavers back, side, front & driveway, must see detailed pictures for more

We get the appeal of a remodeled house. But, you can get new construction in Laguna Niguel for less than $300 per square foot, we wonder whether - all things being equal - you would rather take an updated three decades old house or a totally new ... new one. Both have pluses or minuses, or course - and there's also the issue that there aren't even new houses in Laguna Niguel for this low of a price range.

We wonder just how bad this situation turned out for the current seller, considering the listing says there are more than $150,000 in upgrades, yet the 2004 sales price was $488,000 - a virtual wash. If we assume a sale for the full asking price, and only take into account $150,000 worth of upgrades, and also adjust for 6% in sales costs, this could be a loss of about $182,000.

Welcome to Lake Forest

2009-10-22T05:08:00.000-07:00

"WELCOME HOME TO THE CITY OF LAKE FOREST," the listing description shouts. We say, welcome home to your new bank-owned apart-condo. If there's any risk that the market will stay bottomed out and you'd be stuck living in this type of property for the next 7-10 years, is there any reason to jump in now?

20702 El Toro Rd #240, 92679
Asking price: $192,500
Previous sales price (bank): $222,304
Purchase date: 9/24/09

Beds:	2
Baths:	2
Sq. Ft.:	950
$/Sq. Ft.:	$203
Lot Size:	-
Property Type:	Condominium
Style:	Contemporary
Stories:	1
Floor:	2
View:	Greenbelt
Year Built:	1980
Community:	Lake Forest North
County:	Orange
MLS#:	U9004575
Source:	SoCalMLS
Status:	Active
On Redfin:	5 days

From listing: WELCOME HOME TO THE CITY OF LAKE FOREST. THIS MAY BE ONE OF THE BEST LOCATIONS IN THE CITY, AND WE THINK ONE OF THE BEST ASSOCIATIONS IN THE AREA. THE PROPERTY IS A TWO BEDROOM TWO BATHROOM CONDO THAT FEATURES CLOSE TO 950 SQUARE FEET OF INTERIOR LIVING SPACE. THE ASSOCIATION IS FANTASTIC, IT HAS WATER FEATURES RUNNING THROUGHOUT THE COMPLEX WHICH CREATE THE FEELING OF LIVING IN A MOUNTAIN RESORT. YOU WILL ENJOY THE H.O.A POOL, AND SPA, TENNIS AND BASKETBALL. SO COME HOME TO LAKE FOREST AND START TO ENJOY THE BEST OF ORANGE COUNTY TODAY.

On the positive side, it's good to see that a property like this appears to have quickly moved through the foreclosure pipeline and that it's going to probably be unloaded quickly to a new owner. Hopefully one that doesn't pay $368,000 for this shoebox.

To give you an idea of how crazy that is, we estimate your monthly housing expense at about $2,700 per month (after mortgage principle and interest, HOA dues and property taxes and before the mortgage interest deduction, assuming 3% down with an interest rate of 5% and no PMI). After the generous government benefits to owning, your total monthly cost of ownership would be somewhere around $1,950. Really, $1,950 to live in this place?! Well, if you actually bought the property when the previous owners did, you probably used an exotic loan product to lower the monthly cost.

What few rental properties we saw offered on the MLS in this city, at this size, seem to say this property is probably rentable at about $1,300-$1,400 per month. Our back-of-the-napkin calculation with a 160 GRM target for an owner-occupant tells us this property is "worth" about $200,000. So as you can see, we're at rental parity...if you would actually consider owning this as a long-term solution. We would argue the actual GRM should be much lower, or it should be an investor who purchases this and holds and rents.

Hitting the skids in Trabuco Canyon

2009-10-20T05:37:00.000-07:00

Buy a house in Trabuco Canyon at or just past the real estate market peak. Spend $130k in upgrades. Price $160k above what you paid for the property. What could go wrong?

20592 Sycamore Road, 92679
Asking price: $685,000
Previous sales price: $525,000
Previous sales date: 11/30/06

Beds:	3
Baths:	2
Sq. Ft.:	2,000
$/Sq. Ft.:	$342
Lot Size:	0.51 Acres
Property Type:	Single Family Residence
Style:	Contemporary
Stories:	2
View:	Trees/Woods
Year Built:	1954
Community:	Trabuco Canyon
County:	Orange
MLS#:	P690877
Source:	SoCalMLS
Status:	Active
On Redfin:	131 days

From listing: Over $130,000 spent in upgrades over the past 2 years-Spectacular-like a brand new home. Totally private 1/2 acre estate with tons on parking, rv access, garage w/small workshop, gated entrance w/impressive wrought iron fencing & room for at least 3 horses. Mature oaks & sycamores, creek & mountain view, reflection pond. All new dual paned windows, new wooden siding & fresh exterior paint, all new light wooden interior walls, mirrored wardrobe doors, recessed lighting, immaculate & clean. Family room enjoys granite wet bar, wood floors and a dramatic open beam ceiling, slider to patio & picture window with view of peaceful grounds. New kitchen with stainless dishwasher,refrig,microwave, gas stove, granite counters. Living/Dining Room has fabulous river rock fireplace, Spanish paver tiles. Master has separate office nook, private balcony w/mountain view, vaulted ceiling, huge bathroom w/claw-foot tub, walk-in closet. Public riding arena and trails down the street, 5 min to shopping.

This house sold for $343,500 and "only" went for around $200k more in 2006. As you can see, the current owner believes they have put enough work into the property to have it be worth even more today.

The fact that the property has been sitting on the market for four months with no price reductions says otherwise. If the property can be sold for the current asking price (not likely), and we were to subtract 6% for sales costs, the owner would be looking at a loss of about $11,000 - taking into account $130k spent on upgrades. In essence, they're looking to get out of this property for essentially breakeven.

Apart ... err.... condo REO in Aliso

2009-10-18T05:19:00.000-07:00

Do you remember when 2-bedroom apartments-turned condos went for nearly $350 per square foot in Aliso Viejo. Believe it!

23412 Pacific Park Unit 35h, 92656
Asking price: $309,900
Previous bank price: $355,200
Purchase date: 5/26/09

Beds:	2
Baths:	2
Sq. Ft.:	1,200
$/Sq. Ft.:	$258
Lot Size:	-
Property Type:	Condominium
Style:	Contemporary/Modern
Stories:	1
Floor:	2
Year Built:	2006
Community:	Aliso Viejo
County:	Orange
MLS#:	F1823093
Source:	SoCalMLS
Status:	Active
On Redfin:	4 days

From listing: REO/Bank Owned. 2 bedrooms 2 baths, central heat and air. Priced to sell fast. o This is a Fannie Mae HomePath property. o Purchase this property for as little as 3% down! o This property is approved for HomePath Mortgage Financing.

So all you have to do is put $9,297 down and you can buy this lovely REO condo using HomePath Mortage Financing. What is HomePath financing? Well, it includes "no mortgage insurance, no appraisal, low down payments, and contributions up to 6% of the purchase price."

Assuming you put just the 3% down, and you can get an interest rate of 4.75%, your payments would be around $1,565 per month. Of course, that's just the payment on the loan and is before association dues, mello roos, and lots of other home-related considerations. Check out the IHB for a nifty calculator.

It's hard to believe now, but this property sold for $419,000 just four years ago. Now, assuming the property will sell for its full asking price, it means the condo has shed 26% of its value.