Arthur Frommer Online

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2008-10-01T11:32:00.001-04:00

The RSS feed for Arthur's blog will change from this:

http://www.frommers.com/blog/frommersblog.xml

To:
http://community.frommers.com/ver1.0/Blog/BlogRss?plckBlogId=Blog:3ec3ac40-db8a-4d10-a884-acf9ccad0879

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I'm taking a technology-related break for a few days

2008-09-18T15:59:00.000-04:00

Frommers.com is currently undergoing some changes that affect this blog, as well as the Travel Talk forums. In order for everything to hum along smoothly, I'm going to refrain from blogging for a few days. When I return, there will be a slightly different look to this blog, including the long-awaiting addition of your comments directly beneath each blog post. You're going to get a few more upgrades, too, but I'll get in trouble if I spill the beans ahead of time. Until I return, happy travels.

Because no one in Washington, D.C., is overseeing it, the proposed "Visit U.S.A." program is absurdly contradictory and self-defeating

2008-09-18T11:15:00.001-04:00

You are probably aware that foreign tourism to the United States has plummeted since September 11. While other foreign countries are enjoying regular and substantial increases in their incoming tourism, the U.S.A. is welcoming fewer tourists in 2008 than visited our country in 2000. Recently, a Senior Vice President of the Travel Industry Association testified before a congressional committee that the shortfall in incoming foreign tourism had cost America "46 million visitors, $140 billion in lost visitor spending, $23 billion in lost tax revenue ... and 340,000 jobs."

So what's being proposed? What's being proposed is an advertising budget to be funded by fees assessed upon foreign tourists coming to the United States! They -- the foreign visitors -- are to pay an extra penalty for the right to come here! In Shakespeare's language, it's a "comico-tragic" farce.

The legislation before Congress is the "Travel Promotion Act" establishing a fund of $100,000,000 for advertising the attractions of our country overseas. But because Congress has no intention of supplying those monies, the advertising fund is to come from private donations and "a modest fee on foreign travelers.

The idea behind this legislation is that the drop in foreign tourism is coming about because foreigners fail to appreciate the pleasures of visiting the U.S.A. They need to be told, for instance, that America is cheap to visit because of the weakness of the U.S. dollar. They don't know such things without seeing them in ads. They are unaware of our attractions.

In actual fact, the drop-off in foreign tourism has come about because the process of traveling here has become a grotesque nightmare for most foreigners, who must often wait months for an appointment to apply for a U.S. visa costing $131. Several months ago, I wrote about meeting a young businesswoman in Panama who could not obtain a visa to visit her sister in California because, as a young single woman, she fits the profile of those who overstay their tourist visas. I wrote about other security obstacles discouraging such visits that won't prevent a single terrorist from coming here.

So what's the response of our security officials? Without objection from other branches of government, without the slightest input from the State Department or Commerce Department hoping to encourage tourism, the Department of Homeland Security is about to inaugurate an Electronic Authorization Program requiring of foreign visitors that they send us an e-mail several days before their scheduled arrival, outlining their plans and setting forth their reasons for being admitted. They must implore us to be let in. Only if they then get a favorable response can they proceed to make the trip! No one at Homeland Security has yet revealed whether they plan to hire tens of thousands of examiners to read those e-mails and send back their approvals. In actual fact, Michael Chertoff's associates probably haven't even thought of who is read the "Electronic Applications" and then issue "Electronic Authorizations."

It gets worse. The Department of Homeland Security is also proposing to require that foreign tourists submit to "biometric" tests (iris scans, fingerprints) upon leaving the U.S., for reasons too obscure to discuss. The airlines are claiming that this requirement will compel them to spend billions of dollars in administering the tests, which the Department of Homeland Security itself hasn't the slightest intention of doing.

So while Congress seeks to encourage incoming tourism, the Department of Homeland Security takes steps to discourage it. No one has been given the authority to reconcile those conflicting aims and reach reasonable compromises.

And if you think I am exaggerating the situation, then research these programs on Google and reach your own conclusions. Try the words "Travel Promotion Act" and try "Biometric Exit Procedures." You will find that I have under-stated the absurdity of what I've just described. Until new people come into the federal government to take care of these matters, the United States will never enjoy the healthy tourist industry that our weak dollar should, under normal circumstances, have long ago created.

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Some additional words about the penalty charged by easyJet and Ryanair for the use of credit cards

2008-09-17T15:50:00.000-04:00

As you'll note by looking at the responses to my earlier post on the subject, you incur a penalty of at least £4 ($8) per flight, £8 ($16) per round-trip flight, when you use a credit card to pay for a ticket on easyJet or Ryanair, but not if you use a debit card. Since the British airlines were always the first to impose these pesky charges (luggage charges, boarding charges, etc.), and were then copied by our own airlines, I have no doubt that our own U.S. airlines will move quick to impose similar fees on credit card users.

But here's Catch 22. If you use a debit card to avoid these charges, you are then unprotected if the airline goes belly-up and you lose the advance payment for your flight. Only a credit card payment is protected by the credit card companies, not one done by debit card. So paying the $16 becomes a form of travel insurance against that sad result.

There is, of course, no real possibility that easyJet or Ryanair will go bellyup. Just as there was no real possibility that Bear Stearns, Lehman Brothers, or AIG would ever encounter financial problems.

A big U.S. tour operator has resumed operating well-priced packages to Egypt, including trans-Atlantic air and a 3-night Nile cruise

2008-09-17T11:01:00.000-04:00

Colossi of Memnon
Originally uploaded by mharjo

On the late afternoon of the day in 1977 when Egyptian leader Anwar Sadat surprised the world by announcing he was going to Israel to address the Israeli Knesset, the first step in negotiation of a peace treaty between Egypt and Israel, I went running out to Kennedy Airport without even a suitcase to board a flight to Cairo. I was then a tour operator and it was obvious that tourism to Egypt was about to explode. On arrival in Cairo, I rushed to the Mena House Oberoi Hotel next to the Pyramids, met with its manager, signed a hastily-drafted contract for the use of 80 rooms a night in a modern and just-finished annex to that historic hotel, and left his office with a signed agreement (the key to bringing more tourists to a hotel-jammed city) just minutes before several European tour operators arrived at the Oberoi seeking the same rooms -- too late! To someone who was then a tour operator, this was the equivalent of a home run.

My company, Arthur Frommer International, Inc., began within days to operate a "back-to-back" weekly charter program to Cairo, and continued operating that program for nearly three years. On numerous follow-up trips to Egypt, I had an opportunity to experience for myself the wonders of Egypt. It is a destination that comes as close as any other to being an absolutely indispensable visit for any mentally-alive person. The Pyramids and the Sphinx, the Archaeological Museum in downtown Cairo (with relics of Tut), the Nile and the glories of "Upper Egypt" (Luxor and Aswan, Abu Simbel, The Valley of the Kings, Valley of the Nobles) -- and the fun of being in a country whose population is well disposed to tourists and has been receiving them for hundreds of years -- are all a thrilling travel opportunity.

It is thus with sadness that I saw the drop-off in American tourism to Egypt, starting in the late 1990s in the wake of major terrorist attacks upon tourists. While American tourism came to a halt, European tourism to Egypt continued and grew. Literally millions of European and other Middle Eastern tourists continue to visit Egypt each year, and regard the visit as one of the memorable highlights of their travel life. They also find that the cost of visiting Egypt is extremely reasonable -- the price structure is low.

There are growing indications that after several years of improved security within the country, that Americans in large numbers are beginning to return to Egypt -- and they definitely should. The biggest proof of that return is the publication this past month of a catalog of reasonably-priced air-and-land packages to Egypt by the long-established Central Holidays (tel. 800/935-5000 or 201/228-5200; www.centralholidays.com), one of the nation's largest tour companies. And although their average tour (spending seven nights in Egypt) in high-season winter of 2008-09 will cost around $2,400 per person, that price is not only for round-trip air between New York and Cairo, four nights in five-star Cairo hotels (Le Meridien Pyramids for 3 nights and Sonesta Heliopolos for 1 night), air transportation within Egypt from Cairo to Aswan and back from Luxor to Cairo, and a 3-night cruise on the Nile with all-inclusive arrangements (comfortable cabins, all meals, all daily sightseeing), as well as transfers and sightseeing in Cairo.

Considering that this package takes you to Upper Egypt after a thorough exposure to Cairo, and then places you a cruiseship with all the amenities and features of a Nile cruise (including daily shore excursions to the remains of ancient Egypt), and considering as well that it includes round-trip non-stop trans-Atlantic airfare to Egypt, it is fairly priced, affording you a comprehensive visit and a once-in-a-lifetime experience. Though you'll have to scare up $2,000-or-so, you'll spend very little in addition to that sum.

Egypt is worth it; this is one of the greatest of all travel experiences.

Were you aware that the two major cut-rate carriers of Europe charge a hefty fee for paying with a credit card?

2008-09-16T14:48:00.000-04:00

You may think you've heard everything about the fees and penalties that cost-cutting airlines in Europe charge their passengers (for checking luggage, for boarding the airplane ahead of others, and so on). But hardly anyone in the U.S. press has revealed that famous easyJet charges 2.5% of the total ticket price to people who pay by credit card (with a minimum charge of £4, about $8, per flight, or $16 round-trip). Ryanair also charges £4 ($8) per flight. (Let's hope the accountants at United Airlines don't learn, or we'll all be paying the same). So how do you take advantage of those low, low fares on easyJet and Ryanair? You show up for the flight with a small backpack, never checking a single piece of luggage, and pay for the flight in cash.

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The owner of China Spree Travel has asked to present arguments for choosing his company for your tour of China. Why not?

2008-09-16T10:44:00.001-04:00

Just before I went on stage to deliver a travel lecture at the Adventure Travel Expo this past Saturday in Seattle, I was approached by Wilson Wu, president of China Spree (tel. 866/652-5656; www.chinaspree.com), the Washington-state competitor to such better-known names as China Focus, Pacific Delight, Champion Holidays, and Ritz Tours. And Mr. Wu, in the most engaging manner possible, proceeded to deliver some persuasive recommendations for his company.

Because such up-and-coming, "we-try-harder" companies like China Spree lack the resources to advertise heavily, Mr. Wu asked me whether he could compose a statement of his company's strengths for appearance in this blog.

And because we've had good reactions from readers who have traveled to China with China Spree (and also because it always helps to present the bigger companies with healthy competition), I readily agreed. I don't endorse the knocks he delivers to some of the others, and I've had to heavily condense what turned out to be an impassioned and lengthy screed, but in the firm belief that a vibrant marketplace of competing companies is good for everyone, I've allowed China Spree to address you as follows (in a totally free-of-charge statement, like everything else in our text):

It was a great pleasure to meet you in person. Over 60% of China Spree customers come from the references of previous travelers, and at least half of them have learned about China Spree from Frommers.com

Unlike a number of other companies that offer cheap China tours for cheap prices, China Spree offers First Class China Travel at Bargain Prices. We never sacrifice quality for the lowest pricing.

That's why China Spree Tours feature nice hotels with central location. We all know what the hotel location means for a traveler. I usually travel to China about four time a year to inspect the hotels we use for China Spree tours, to ensure these hotels meet these standard.

Chinese are good at building new hotels but not good at maintain them. Besides China hotel star-rating is very confusing -- that is why many tour operators take advantage of that. The fact is that foreign travelers never know what kind of hotel they will end up with until they check in. So, they have to rely largely on the tour company who picks the hotels for them. China Spree avoids substandard hotels at all cost. My principle is that if I don't want to stay at that hotel myself, I would never put my clients there.

China Spree tours are dynamic trips for active travelers. Our tours have more included features (tours, evening shows, and special meals) than any of my competitors on the market.

China Spree is dedicated to small group travel. Our average group size is between 10-16 people. The maximum size is about 20 people. From a purely practical standpoint, smaller groups can also go to places and enjoy special events that are simply inaccessible to the larger ones.

China Spree Culture Insight Programs particularly focus on cultural exposure and people-to-people interactions. In Beijing, we have Hutong tour on Pedi-cabs that include family hosted lunch. In Xian, we visit the Yao Dong (cave dwellings) and a local primary school. In Tibet, China Spree tours visit a Tibetan family home and a local Tibetan hospital, etc.

I totally agree with you regarding the poor quality of group meals in China [AF: I had complained to him about this]. I had been working in China for over 10 years as a tour manager, escorting American tours for over 250 days a year for multiple U.S. tour companies, so I feel the same way as you do for the group meals. I knew, experienced repeatedly, and therefore determined to make changes if I operate my own tours. So over the years, I have been working on improvement of the quality and variety of group meals for China Spree tours. The real problem of the group meals for foreign visitors is the repetition of the same dishes over and over again. You might still remember how many time the 'sweet and sour pork' repeated in your group meals. With China Spree, the restaurants are only allowed to serve the dishes which represent local flavours of the region the tour visits.

Please take a look at our 2009 China tour. Also please refer to our specials here. Our popular 14-Day China's Best Treasures tour covers not only the must-see sites such as Beijing, Xian, Guilin, Suzhou and Shanghai but also includes an off-the-beaten-path hiking tour to the "Dragon Spine Terraces" in Longsheng.

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Austria, which sparked an international boycott when it brought a neo-Nazi into its government, is on the brink of repeating history

2008-09-15T16:34:00.000-04:00

Ahead of our own election on November 4, Austria will go to the polls on September 28 to elect a new parliament. And none other than Joerg Haider, a near-certified neo-Nazi and noted Austrian racist, will be offering himself as a candidate for Prime Minister of that nation. (He's the man who congratulated members of the World War II S.S. on their adherence to principle, and talked about the enlightened employment policies of the Third Reich).

When Haider was taken into the Austrian government several years ago by a weak-minded right-wing party, numerous nations of the European Union embarked on a boycott of all things Austrian, including travel to Austria and use of Austrian Airlines. We'll all be carefully watching that election, and begging our Austrian friends to give us no reason for resumption of a similar travel ban.

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Now we've seen everything: a 12-night re-positioning cruise for only $33 a day!

2008-09-15T13:41:00.000-04:00

It's a one-day sale over at Online Vacation Center (tel. 800/780-9002; www.onlinevacationcenter.com), expiring at 8pm on Tuesday, September 16. But if you'll call by then, and book by then, you'll be able to snare an inside cabin on Royal Caribbean's big Navigator of the Seas, making an ocean-crossing from Barcelona to Ft. Lauderdale, leaving Barcelona on Monday, November 10, twelve nights in all, for only $339 per person ($33 a day). I can't remember a lower price ever for an ocean cruise on a top-rated ship.

From Barcelona, the Navigator goes to Cartagena, Spain, then spends two days simply at sea on its way to Ponte Delgada in the Azores, and then sails on for six full days simply on the south Atlantic to Nassau, Bahamas. It then plows on to Ft. Lauderdale, arriving in Florida at 7am on November 22.

Want the most restful interlude of your life? Twelve days of simply lolling about, gazing at the sea, and eating six meals a day? For only $33 a day (plus a one-way airfare to Barcelona)? Call by tomorrow night, and you'll embark on what may well be the cheapest glamorous cruise ever offered.

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Can anyone tell us about their experience with a Verizon loaner phone on their trips overseas?

2008-09-15T12:05:00.000-04:00

From all over, I'm receiving messages that more and more Verizon offices will now make loaner phones available to their customers traveling overseas (normal Verizon phones don't usually work overseas). Is this true? And is the price a reasonable one that competes with the several, overseas-applicable cell phone rental companies?

Confirmation of this new, possible service will create a strong additional reason for using Verizon, as many people will swear that the company's domestic service -- that works from almost all areas of the U.S., even mountain valleys -- is superior to many others. Have any of our readers requested and received a loaner phone on the eve of a trip abroad? And how much did you pay for its use?

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I'm intrigued by -- but withholding judgment about -- Roomorama

2008-09-12T16:12:00.000-04:00

Heard about Roomorama? (www.roomorama.com) On it, apartment owners can rent out their spare rooms (or empty places) using its system. It's like VRBO, I guess, except its focus isn't giant vacation homes -- it's neighborhoody places to stay. And it's called a peer to peer site, which just means that it connects renters with customers, and doesn't otherwise get involved.

The exchange of money, though, happens through its website, not offline. What's more, the transfer of funds only goes through once you've checked in and approved what you see. (There's an 8 percent transaction fee.)

This is a jaunty and rather informal site that seems to be directed at young travelers. It claims to know how modern, young people travel because it not only has a thoughtful blog about local life where it started (New York City, at blog.roomorama.com), and also has a Facebook page.

And by the way, the site seems to be limited, initially, to finding rooms in New York, Boston, Chicago, and Toronto.

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And still they come: Lots of air-and-land packages to China at rock-bottom rates. How can you possibly fail to go?

2008-09-12T13:54:00.000-04:00

China 2008
Uploaded by daveterry

I have often talked about the nine-night tours of China operated by San Francisco's China Focus ( www.chinafocustravel.com), which go to Beijing, Shanghai, and three smaller Chinese cities -- and I still regard those packages as leading the field. Their one drawback is that they don't go to Xian (to see the stupefying terra cotta warriors). Xian needs to reached by a rather expensive air trip from Beijing, which is probably why China Focus doesn't include it.

But just recently, Friendly Planet (tel. 800/555-5765; www.friendlyplanet.com) has introduced its own low-cost air-and-land package to China, and it does include Xian. So if you're determined to get a quick glimpse of all three popular cities, here's your chance. Friendly Planet's deal is available both by advance purchase for January travel and last-minute for November travel. It's an eight-night trip that, as I've noted, does the classic China: Beijing, Xian, and Shanghai, including trans-Pacific airfare, fuel surcharges, breakfasts, hotels, and some lunches for $1,399. (And one of the January departures is just $1,299.) It must be booked by October 22 no matter which departure is chosen.

Note the various optional events thrown into the itinerary (duck dinner, Panda zoo, dance performance, etc.) at an extra charge. I'd pass them all up and do my own thing, since taxis are so cheap in China ($1.50 to $3 for long rides).

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The swankiest of all the Club Meds is now offering autumn weeks for $999, including airfare from Ft. Lauderdale

2008-09-12T11:31:00.000-04:00

Of all the Club Meds in the western hemisphere, the Club Med Columbus Isle in the Bahamas was designed to be the poshest of them all. From the beginning, its rates have been higher than all others, and its appeal was unashamedly towards the upper crust of vacationers. That's why its current cry for help is so revealing of how slow things are in the world of tropical vacations.

On departures through October 18, club Med Columbus Isle will charge you only $999 per person (based on double occupancy) for a seven-night vacation of everything -- meals, drinks, entertainment, transfers -- including round-trip airfare from Ft. Lauderdale. They will also arrange connecting flights into and out of Ft. Lauderdale for slightly more. Divide the price by 7 and you're paying only $142 a night for room, three meals, unlimited drinks, unlimited non-mechanized sea sports, entertainment and more, in a comfortable room with all amenities.

To book, call tel. 800/CLUB MED or go to www.clubmed.us.

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Ever been invited to an art auction on a cruise ship? It's a bad idea and you know it

2008-09-11T16:12:00.002-04:00

Among the less savory practices on cruise ships are art auctions for the sale of paintings and prints to passengers, many of them inexperienced with how art auctions work. One tip-off to the character of these questionable events is the free booze -- typically a table of cocktails and wine -- offered before and during the auction; tipsy cruisers get excited about the prospect of scoring a deal, and buy a painting for multiples of its true value. There have been recent newspaper articles about lawsuits brought against the seagoing art houses for foisting inflated, misrepresented works on ignorant travelers.

The definitive expose is by Jason Cochran, a really fine travel writer, in a recent post on the website www.walletpop.com. I think you'll be intrigued to read that some of the cruise lines have apparently pressured the art houses conducting these sales into allowing passengers to return their purchases for refunds. It's about time.

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A lot of travelers are buying those new "passport cards" for convenience, and not for economy

2008-09-11T12:24:00.003-04:00

Earlier this year, I wrote of the decision by the State Department to issue new "passport cards" for about $45 (less for kids) per, instead of the booklet-like standard passports costing $97 apiece. The point, as I understood it then, was to save money for large families needing passports. Passport cards perform all the functions of a standard passport -- they are official acknowledgments of your identity and citizenship -- but are good only for land and sea crossings of U.S. borders, and not for flights coming into our country.

Turns out that a great many people are now purchasing these cards -- about the size of a standard drivers' license -- because of the ease with which they can be carried about. They fit easily into a wallet, and don't take up the space needed for a standard, booklet-like passport. You tend to lose them less.

Travel writer Jason Cochran (who has authored or co-authored three Pauline Frommer's guidebooks) has described all the pros and cons of the new passport cards in a blog post at www.walletpop.com.

Simply remember that you cannot use a passport card for entering the U.S. by air. It's a smart purchase only for persons making a great many border crossings by car or cruise ship.

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Here's a reduced-price, 12-night Mediterranean cruise this coming fall and winter, on which they'll fly you to and from the Mediterranean

2008-09-10T12:52:00.003-04:00

barcelona in gaudi buildings
Uploaded by dudrinovman

To give you some idea of the lengths to which the cruise industry is presently going (apparently because of the slow travel season), I have to cite another promotion of Norwegian Cruise Line. For two Mediterranean departures from Barcelona on November 30, 2008 and January 25, 2009, on a fascinating itinerary (the ship goes to Rome, Athens, Ephesus (Turkey), Alexandria (Egypt), and Valletta, Malta, before returning to Barcelona, 12 nights in all, the line has decided to throw in free trans-Atlantic airfare for bargain-hunting passengers. And thus the price for a balcony cabin for this 12-night cruise is $1,999 per person, including round-trip air fare to and from Barcelona from either San Francisco, Newark, Philadelphia, New York, Boston, or Washington, D.C. For $200 more, they'll fly you from Miami, Chicago, Atlanta, Dallas, or Los Angeles.

Since the value of that airfare is at least $1,000 (and possibly far more), you're paying less than $999 for 12 nights at sea in the glorious Mediterranean -- and in an outside balcony cabin, to boot. Transfers to and from the ship are also included, and the stay in Egpyt is overnight, permitting you quite comfortably to visit Cairo, the Pyramids, and the Sphinx.

As with all deals of this sort, the airfare-included-cruise can be booked at this price not from the cruise line, but from Online Vacation Center, which you reach by dialing tel. 800/329-9002 or visiting www.onlinevacationcenter.com. It's obvious that the demand for a winter cruise of the Mediterranean isn't strong enough to fill the ship at normal rates.

But then, the demand for all such travel products is fairly weak at the moment. It's a buyer's market out there.

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The travel sales are increasing in intensity, and in the depth of their discounts. Some examples:

2008-09-09T15:56:00.001-04:00

From all over, I'm hearing stories about the current slowness of the travel season. And some of these reports are from people high up in the cruise and airline industry. Some examples:

$67 a day on an upscale ship. It isn't news to hear about a price of $339 on a five-night cruise out of Miami, from popularly-priced companies like Carnival, Norwegian, or Royal Caribbean. But when that price is offered by an upscale line, like on the very upscale Celebrity Century, that very definitely is news.

On its 5-night sailings from Miami scheduled for December 15, 2008, and for January 3, 2009, the Celebrity Century, a premium ship, is permitting cruise brokers to sell its inside cabins for $339 per person (the December 15 sailing) and $359 (the January 3 sailing). You can get those rates by calling America's Vacation Center at tel. 888/420-1035.

$399 round-trip to Italy. And need I remind you about the three-day airfare sale that begins tomorrow, Wednesday, unloading round-trips between New York and Rome, Naples, Palermo, or Bologna for $399 per person, including fuel surcharge? You dial tel. 800/459-0581 to reach Eurofly for those rates, but not earlier than Wednesday morning.

Yesterday's bail-out of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac may have raised spirits on the stock exchange, but the same confidence -- quite obviously -- hasn't yet spread to the travel industry.

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Now we've seen everything. Heard about the latest ploy to sell tickets on the airlines?

2008-09-09T11:49:00.000-04:00

It was the ancient Greeks, I believe, who first said: "Whom the Gods would destroy, they first turn mad." The Associated Press has just released a story whose opening words are:

JetBlue Airways Corp. is auctioning off more than 300 round-trip flights and six vacation packages this week on eBay, with opening bids set between 5 and 10 cents.

You can get the details at www.jetblue.com/ebay.

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Those smug claims that oil will remain at its current peak of production through the year 2035 are, undoubtedly, pure fairytales

2008-09-08T16:14:00.000-04:00

On Friday of last week, I wrote about a vital book called Transport Revolutions which states, among other things, that world oil production will peak no later than four years from now, in 2012, and will then decline by at least 1% a year, with devastating consequences to our travel industry, a business heavily dependent on the internal combustion engine for cars, buses and airplanes.

And that production will decline despite all the possible new oil fields, all the other efforts to increase the extraction of liquid oil.

Immediately, a reader proceeded to taunt me by citing predictions of the U.S. Geological Survey that worldwide oil production will not begin to decline until 2035.

It so happens that the authors of Transport Revolutions have devoted considerable attention, a great many pages, to refuting the politicized attempts by organizations similar to those U.S. government agencies that present the rosiest possible picture about the future supplies of oil. They rank such predictions among the similar government forecasts that global warming was nonsense or the Kyoto treaty unnecessary.

They point out that the predictions about oil, by U.S. and other government agencies, have been based on wholly fictitious claims by various foreign countries -- especially those in the Middle East -- about the size of their oil reserves. "It's hard to avoid the conclusion", they write (page 130):

... that much reporting of oil reserves may be for political or other reasons and may not reflect closely what could be made available ... Several ... members of OPEC reported dramatically higher levels of oil reserves in the late 1980s, apparently jockeying for OPEC production quotas. They were led by Kuwait, which raised its reported reserves from 64 to 90 bb [billion barrels] in 1985. Kuwait may now be leading a move to more realistic reporting. Early in 2006, a document was reported to have been circulated within the Kuwait Oil Company to the effect that the country's reserves are only about half the official total.

Of greater significance is the ongoing questioning of Saudi Arabia's reserves, amounting to a quarter of the world's total ... [T]he real number is hidden in obscurity ... and could well be only half of what is currently reported

I spoke by phone this past weekend with Anthony Perl, one of the authors of Transport Revolutions. He was acerbic about the U.S. Geological Survey and pointed out that individual members of that organization have themselves placed their careers at risk by publishing denials of the Survey's conclusions. He strongly hinted that the U.S.G.S. is politically motivated, and wryly mentioned that countries importing the greatest amount of oil are those which publish the highest estimates of oil reserves, while those countries that have lessened their dependence on foreign oil have published more accurate and lesser estimates of worldwide reserves; that dictatorships in the Middle East are also notorious for over-estimating their oil reserves.

This is not a political issue, not a question of democrats versus republicans. Perl mentioned to me such people as oilman Matthew R. Simmons of Simmons & Co., International, a staunch Republican, who has led in drawing attention to the imminent peaking of oil production and the absolute necessity of creating alternative forms of energy. If you will read the many speeches and urgent articles by Simmons, you will find predictions far more dire than those in Transport Revolutions. And you will find statements like: "Too much of our current oil supplies come from old giant fields which are now in decline and deepwater fields which peak fast and decline faster."

So I remain impressed by Transport Revolutions' careful and conservative choice of 2012 as the date when worldwide oil production will peak and thereafter decline. That prediction is a wake-up call, a warning that we must quickly and massively adopt measures that will encourage alternative sources of power, primarily from electricity. And this is a travel issue, not simply a national issue, and one that will have a direct impact on our ability to continue visiting the world.

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Have I got an airfare sale for you! Round-trip between the U.S. and Italy for $399 per person -- including fuel surcharge!

2008-09-08T11:21:00.003-04:00

Riomaggiorre, one of the towns of the Cinque Terra, in Italy
Uploaded by joe.routon

My source is a totally reliable tipster, a notorious leaker of absolutely accurate info, the travel equivalent of the infamous Bob Novak, Matthew Drudge, or National Enquirer. He's a person close to the powers-that-be at Eurofly, the Italian carrier that flies between New York and Rome, Naples, Palermo, and Bologna. And he has assured me that this blog has the exclusive, an honest-to-goodness scoop. No other newspaper, internet site or blog will get word about this extraordinary bonanza until Wednesday, September 10.

And like a proud journalist, champion of the First Amendment, tight-lipped reporter, I'll go to jail -- I'll serve time -- before revealing the name of my source. He's a completely vetted, authoritative spreader of travel secrets. And his news is this:

If you phone Eurofly no earlier than Wednesday, September 10, you'll discover that on the three days from Wednesday through Friday of this week, September 10 to 12, Eurofly will be selling round-trip flights in September and October between New York and either Rome, Naples, Palermo, or Bologna, for the exceptional price of only $399 per person, including fuel surcharge. In other words, while other people are paying $1,100 and more, plus fuel surcharge, to fly between the U.S. and Italy, you'll be paying only $399, including fuel surcharge.

I think you'll agree that for flights in September and October, when the weather in Italy is balmy and serene, that $399 is a world's wonder -- it justifies making a trip that you might not otherwise have considered.

So get ready to spring. The Eurofly number is tel. 800/459-0581. And the three-day sale will probably -- but not necessarily -- go up on the Eurofly website (www.euroflyusa.com), too (starting Wednesday, September 10).

Three days only in which to book: September 10 through 12. For travel at any time in September and October -- in other words, for the next 45-or-so days. $399 round-trip, with no fuel surcharge.

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In Miami and Miami Beach, the rental of condos has become a buyer's market (to put it mildly)

2008-09-05T16:35:00.000-04:00

If you were in Miami and Miami Beach in 2004 through early 2006, you saw a forest of construction cranes lining the horizon. Financed in part by capital from South Americans rushing to move their savings into safety, financed in part by unsophisticated U.S. speculators (like a distant relative of mine) seeking a killing, dozens of high-rise condos were built not simply along the beach but in nondescript inner areas of the south Florida city miles away from the water.

In one of those winters, Roberta and I rented a condo for two weeks from a Latin American woman of modest means who had bought the apartment, sight unseen, from an ad in one of her local newspapers. Frantic to get her money out of South America, she was told she could cover maintenance costs with rental income. No one told her that Miami Beach's "season" ran for less than four months a year and that no market existed for condo rentals in the eight other spring, summer and fall months. (She subsequently lost the apartment to bankruptcy).

Well, the real estate bubble burst, especially in Florida, Arizona, and other sun belt locations. And people awoke to find that Miami and Miami Beach, in particular, had far more condos -- glamorous, high-rise condos with balconies and splashy lobbies -- than the market warranted. Numerous condos went through bankruptcy, others were halted mid-construction, still others are renting their apartments at fire-sale prices.

I spoke yesterday by phone with a Floridian real estate agent who told me the condo bargains were extraordinary for the coming winter months. Surprisingly, he was especially keen on the use of Homeaway.com and VRBO.com for the short-term rental of bargain-priced condos at cut-rates -- without using an agent! He said the situation was almost as bad (for the owners) in vacation homes of Orlando, Florida, where too many special communities of rental properties were developed and homes are desperately looking for short-term rentals. One such two-bedroom home in an Orlando neighborhood is presently being offered for $65 a night.

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"Transport Revolutions" is an important new book for every person interested in the future of travel

2008-09-05T12:39:00.002-04:00

If you are at all interested in travel -- if you think it important to read about travel, think about travel, write about or discuss travel -- then you must also concern yourself with questions of energy. Travel is made possible by cars, buses, trains and planes, and those tools of transportation are propelled almost entirely by oil.

An important book of our time is a just-published work by two Canadian professors, Richard Gilbert and Anthony Perl, called Transport Revolutions: Moving People and Freight Without Oil. It makes some urgent and -- to some -- frightening predictions about what will be required to allow persons to continue to travel (or move about) just short years from now.

Transport Revolutions is published by Earthscan of London, and is available, among other places, at Amazon.com. It is a scholarly and heavily documented work, but written with fervor and urgency. It is currently being discussed and reviewed by both scholars and politicians all over the world, because it is an objective and factual picture of the consequence of relying on oil and the internal combustion engine for our future travel needs.

In Vancouver last month, I had lunch with one of its co-authors, Anthony Perl (Professor of Political Science at Simon Fraser University), and I have been carefully reading the book in all the weeks since. In future posts I will be discussing various points it makes, but for now I'd like to introduce one (out of many) of its leading propositions.

According to Transport Revolutions, the worldwide production of petroleum -- conventional oil, heavy oil (from tar sands), natural gas, deepwater oil, polar oil, oil from the continental shelf, and natural gas, in other words, the total production of all petroleum liquids -- will peak no later than 2012 and will thereafter decline at a rate of at least 1% a year. And this is taking into account all the possible future discoveries of additional oil fields, all the secondary recoveries of oil, all the technological advances in extracting heavy oils, every possible favorable expansion of petroleum production. No matter how much additional drilling is done, the finite supplies of oil are such that production will peak -- at the latest -- just four years from now.

To repeat: the world is depleting the finite supply of oil at such a rate as to cause production to peak in just four short years and thereafter to decline rapidly.

A reduction rate of 1% per year, according to them, is devastating, and will cause radical dislocations in humankind's ability to use the internal combustion engine as the major means of moving about. Our ability to travel by car, bus, ship or plane will be gravely affected, and we will be forced to reduce the use of internal combustion engines in favor of new inventions for which we can only pray, like efficient motors operated by electricity (if such motors can be developed).

Electrical means of transport are the only salvation, and only if they are developed can people continue to travel (or move about) in the numbers that travel today. Enormous resources must thus be devoted to developing such new methods, including taxpayer-financed funds .

But while it is conceivable, barely conceivable, that electric cars, buses, streetcars, trains and even ships can take over our means of transport, air transportation presents problems that cannot be solved through the use of electric motors. (The authors suggest that the conversion of giant passenger cruise ships into transport vehicles may permit large numbers of people to continue traveling trans-Atlantic or inter-continental for an efficient and acceptable use of oil per person, provided they are willing to devote five days to the journey in each direction).

The above is an awkward condensation of simply one of the well-argued points in Transport Revolutions, and I hope to be more specific in future essays on the subject. Meantime, Transport Revolutions is an important book and the whole subject is something that all of us should ponder.

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Why it's happening is anyone's guess, but there's continuing good news on the currency front. We will all be watching this carefully

2008-09-04T15:54:00.001-04:00

In a surprising turn that's good news for us travelers, the U.S. dollar continues to gain against most foreign currencies (other than the Chinese Yuan). The Euro now costs only $1.43 and the British Pound only $1.77. Our dollar has also regained its edge against the Canadian and Mexican currencies and now buys C$1.06 and 10½ Mexican pesos.

The gain, of course, is still slight, and you won't really begin to feel the difference in your travels until the exchange rate becomes One Euro=$1.25 and the British Pound reduces to about $1.50. The possibility that this may happen is something we will all want to watch, by turning periodically to that best-of-all chart of currency rates: www.xe.com.

And we can dream, can't we? If the dollar eventually sells at par to the Euro (as it once did) and the British pound costs $1.25, then Britain and the Continent will again become a reasonably priced place for American vacation.

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Resorts in the Caribbean are also discounting their autumn rates -- down to levels rarely seen

2008-09-04T11:44:00.000-04:00

The same factors that have brought about a spate of unusual cruise discounts (a severe hurricane season, an economic slowdown) are also, apparently, affecting resorts in the Caribbean during the upcoming autumn months. Tropical hotels are hurting and willing to deal.

Jamaica leads the desperate pack, as packaged by the Jamaican ex-pats who run the long-in-business Atlas Vacations (reached at 800/634-1057 or www.atlasvacations.net; Note: the website only renders properly for PCs in Internet Explorer and barely displays on Macs). Their top rates are for departures on any date from now until December 8, for a six-night stay at the Fun Holiday Beach Resort, a beachfront hotel in Negril, Jamaica, including round-trip airfare to Jamaica from eight major cities (and from others on request). Total price, including airfare and hotel, is $464 per person from Miami, $476 from Orlando, $500 from Charlotte, $579 from New York, Baltimore or Philadelphia, $598 from Chicago, and $660 from Los Angeles. Departure taxes and airport taxes are additional; single supplement is $300.

How do those rates compare with a trans-Atlantic vacation during the same period? Well, starting November 1, the need to pay a hefty fuel surcharge brings the total cost of a six-night holiday in London, including round-trip airfare from New York, to over $900 per person (from a price leader like www.go-today.com). For more than $300 less, you enjoy the same six nights in Jamaica. The Caribbean, oddly enough, is today's low-cost destination, and $500-some-odd for a weeklong air-and-land package in the tropics is today a bargain.

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At last, there's some good news in travel (a strengthening of the U.S. dollar), but it's offset by bad news (the downfall of Zoom Airlines)

2008-09-03T15:14:00.001-04:00

The bad news first: That cost-cutting, trans-Atlantic, Canadian carrier, Zoom Airways, which also flew from several U.S. cities to London, went down the drain last weekend, stranding several hundred passengers in England. Its downfall means that a potent budget airline flying the Atlantic will no longer be exerting pressure on the other trans-Atlantic carriers to lower their rates. With the exception only of Eurofly, the Italian carrier flying to Rome, Naples, Bologna, and Palermo, there is no longer a cost-cutter charging less on flights to Europe. And the result of that loss of competition will obviously be a strengthening of airfares to Europe. I'm afraid we can expect even higher trans-Atlantic prices in the months ahead.

The good news is that there's been a small (8% to 10%) rise in the value of the U.S. dollar against the British Pound and the Euro (almost wholly unnoticed by the press). Whereas you used to pay $2 for a British pound, you now pay only $1.80. Whereas you used to pay $1.57 for a Euro, you now pay $1.45. Let us all be grateful for small favors.

But let us also be aware that by the time various money-changers add their fees to your exchange transaction, you'll still pay almost $2 for a Pound, and $1.55 for a Euro. And this slight improvement may be offset by the rise in airfares to which I've referred above. All our previous advice about reducing your other costs in Europe -- especially your costs for lodging -- remain valid. You simply have to live more modestly on your trips to Britain and the Continent to offset the still-weak position of the U.S. dollar (unless the improvement continues, for which let's hope).

(Incidentally, the insolvency of Zoom Airlines points up the advisability of always using a credit card to pay for your air tickets; persons who did that will recover their deposits made to Zoom; persons who didn't will lose the sum they paid.)

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