Mwankole Kumushi Kulishani

Prof Clive Chirwa - Power or Influence?

2008-05-06T21:28:00.008-05:00

In the play "Kafuti the brazen serpent" by Zambia’s acclaimed playwright Mulenga Kapwepwe, Kafuti the main character asks the age old question – which is best power or influence?

I imagine Zambia's Presidential aspirant Prof Chirwa has mused over this question too, would his influence on participants in Zambia’s political system yield more benefit or does he need to be the principal power to effect the change average Zambians so desperately need?

In the play Kafuti finds herself inclined to choose influence, for she reasons- influence the ability or clout to persuade others to get things done without the direct responsibilities of titular power as in the case of the American Enterprise or Oprah is far more enduring and beneficial than the transient power of a political title.

Political power would, readily avail Prof Chirwa the potential to allocate resources, make and enforce decisions but even Presidential authority relies on the power of persuasion and influence to rally important and effective players for government to deliver benefits to the public. More importantly, to gain political power he must first, persuade and influence the Zambian electorate to vote him into office.

In their books Robert L. Dilenschneider’s ‘Power and influence’ and Rudy Giuliani’s ‘Leadership’ both stress that seizing the power of governmental organizations and using it appropriately differs greatly in contrast to private sector companies.
Giuliani offers the following advice;

i) prepare relentlessly for the day you become boss
ii) Under promise then over deliver.
iii) Surround yourself with good and effective performers.

Rudy Giuliani who recently lost the Republican Party nomination might have been the greatest beneficiary of his own advice, had he prepared relentlessly for the Presidential campaign, sharpened his promises and surrounded himself with good people he might have gained the ultimate power of leader of the free world.

Yet, Giuliani has now devoted his efforts to influencing government policy through his lobby firm Giuliani Partners. Think tanks like American Enterprise and lobbyists have become more brazen and effective in influencing government policy, it now appears political power has lost some of it’s clout.
In a way Giuliani’s case illustrates the influence versus power dynamic, does power guarantee influence or is influence that gives way to power? Like the chicken and the egg, the two are interdependent; therefore it is folly to attempt or seek a political career/power without influence.
Would Prof Chirwa therefore, be more effective and beneficial to the average Zambians by creating a policy influencing think tank or lobby firm that would influence the Zambian government to allocate resources more effectively, to make and enforce decisions that are pro poor?.
Prof Chirwa has vast aviation technology expertise and has formed important relationships with leading global companies, investment firms and leaders, he would use this influence (which is widely unrecognized in Zambia) on these players to derive benefit for Zambians.

Presidential office may provide the ultimate power to get things done, however it also confers absolute responsibility. The probability of Prof Chirwa’s international influence been enhanced by political office is significant but also real is the possibility that it may be scared.

Prof Chirwa must therefore weigh heavily, whether he prefers influence or power over Zambia’s current political system, I would that he would choose influence!

Mugabe's cronies completely lose it!

2008-04-28T03:32:00.006-05:00

It has been speculated that Hitler may have suffered from a mirage of psychological issues, he was an ideologue with unshakable convictions........ He did not use language for the purpose of interaction with others, but only for the purpose of dominating others. He endlessly engaged in long-winded and pedantic speeches, with "illogical arguments full of crude comparisons and cheap allusions.

As in the case of Hiltler, I find that Mugabe's direct reports, especially the army chief are pandering to the whims of a mentally ill man.

Much worse how do these policemen beat up their fellow countrymen for voting against Mugabe, during the day and go back to their homes at night, in the very neighbourhood where the people they beat up live?

BarryBearak.

New York Times correspondent Barry Bearak, who was jailed earlier this month in Zimbabwe where he was reporting on the country's elections, has a lengthy piece in Sunday's Times about his experience. Bearak was released on bail a few days after being taken into custody, for, as he writes in his Times piece, the crime of "committing journalism:
I had never been arrested before and the prospect of prison in Zimbabwe, one of the poorest, most repressive places on earth, seemed especially forbidding: the squalor, the teeming cells, the possibility of beatings. But I told myself what I'd repeatedly taught my two children: Life is a collection of experiences. You savor the good, you learn from the bad.

I was being charged with the crime of "committing journalism." One of my captors, Detective Inspector Dani Rangwani, described the offense to me as something despicable, almost hissing the words: "You've been gathering, processing and disseminating the news." NYTimes.

Zimbabweans driven beyond despair.

2008-04-21T03:42:00.004-05:00

ALONG THE SOUTH AFRICA-ZIMBABWE BORDER — Sarah Ngewerume was driven to the river by despair.
Seeing South African military truck, two women, with their babies, fled back to Zimbabwe after trying to cross into South Africa.

More than 1,000 people cross the border from Zimbabwe into South Africa every day.

She said she had seen gangs loyal to Zimbabwe’s longtime president, Robert Mugabe, beating people — some to death — in the dusty roads of her village. She said Mugabe loyalists were sweeping the countryside with chunks of wood in their hands, demanding to see party identification cards and methodically hunting down opposition supporters.
“It was terrifying,” said Ms. Ngewerume, a 49-year-old former shopkeeper.

Mariella Furrer for The New York Times

It has been said the strength and morality of a nation, is revealed by the fate and circumstance of the weakest among them.

I therefore must ask - Is there indeed, no conscience nor sense of a higher purpose among the men of Zimbabwe?

How be it that this sad fate of women and babies, fails to arouse the valor of any man in Zimbabwe?

How can the fate of an 84 yr old man be more important than the future, of millions of Zimbabwe's children?

To borrow from Mathew Arnold's "Dover beach" -

How can a nation- that lay before us like a land of dreams, So various, so beautiful, so new,

Hath really neither joy, nor love, nor light, Nor certitude, nor peace, nor help for pain;

And now Zimbabweans are before us, as on a darkling plain Swept with confused alarms of struggle and flight, Where ignorant armies clash by night.

Post-election Zimbabwe and it's impact on the Region.

2008-04-02T13:13:00.001-05:00

With official Presidential results from last Saturday's elections still unclear, Zimbaweans are looking at a very long walk to recovery from the political, economic and social upheaval of the Mugabe years.
That Zanu-PF still maintains a considerable number of seats in Parliament will make it particularly hard to reach consensus on future economic and political reforms needed to put Zimbabwe on a new path.

The US and the World financial institutions are currently pre-occupied with averting a US and global economy recesion, whatever the form and nature of the new Zimbabwe government, it will certainly find it hard to raise funding for economic and social recovery.

As Afghanistan's post taliban government has learnt there is a vast and increasing gap between pledged and actual funding received .

Zimbabwe's parliament results show no clean break from the past because Zanu-PF maintains more than a third of parliamentary seats, this though a result of a democratic process, may actually prove the people's worst enemy. The degree of Zimbabwe's current economic and political troubles require a government with a sound and convincing mandate, to adress. Whatever ambitious economic or political reform programs MDC has will require the cooperation of the Zanu-PF members of parliament to pass; a real challenge given the level of animosity between them.

This also gives Mugabe, though he lost the Presidential vote, leverage to negotiate an exit on his terms; as in the Kenya situation, Zimbabweans may be looking at a bitter complex of a government of the new and the old.

Because of this long walk to recovery, countries in the region, especially South Africa may still have to put up Zimbabweans crawling through their border fences for a breath of fresh air and a chance at real money.

Zimbabwe Independent results center show MDC lead.

2008-04-01T16:12:00.000-05:00

Presidential	Constituency

PRESIDENTIAL RESULTS
Morgan Tsvangirai	1,036,939	50%
Robert Mugabe	895,717	43%
Simba Makoni	148, 887	7%

Seats

MDC

53%

ZANU-PF

42%

MUT/IND

Constituencies reported 192 (91%) - Zimbabwe Independent Results centre.

The last throes of the rigger!

2008-04-01T11:58:00.000-05:00

Nothing could be more telling of the degree of greedy and tyrany that has consumed Robert Mugabe as his desperate attempts to delay and rig Presidential results through his diehard cronies at ZEC, in the face of defeat.

This disgraced and senile tyrant who has stretched the tolerance of the people of Zimbabwe to breaking point, has neither the presence of mind nor the sense to discern the end of his hold on events, now unfolding in Zimbabwe.

He can have himself another day or a few more hours of sleep in the cocoon he has conjured up but the reality is the heads of security agencies will have to salute and yield to the will of the people of Zimbabwe.

"How they are rigging the election at this very moment
Mugabe's spies are using a simple but effective technique to rob Tsvangirai of victory - and not be caught doing it
Harare, Zimbabwe, Tuesday, April 1, 5.0 pm
Sources within the fearsome Central Intelligence Agency (CIO) have told me this afternoon that the Zimbabwe security chiefs, who nearly came to blows yesterday, have reached a compromise - and instructed the CIO to finally fix this election in Mugabe's favour.
The CIO's task is to falsify the voting figures in a way that appears to give logical and expected results, and thus becomes unchallengeable. With the eyes of the world on this election, the power men know that any fraud has to be virtually undetectable.
The technique was explained to me by my source, who told me it is being put into effect at this moment. This is how it works.
In the case of the race for the position of President, votes are being stolen from Tsvangirai. The votes have to be credited to another candidate, to keep voting numbers correct. But they are not being given to Mugabe. They go instead to Simba Makoni.
Why? Because there are some areas - Bulawayo is a good example - where Zanu-PF parliamentary candidates have made such a poor showing that any extra votes recorded there for Mugabe, the party leader, would seem illogical, and rightly condemned as evidence of rigging.
But by diminishing Tsvangirai's vote total and giving the difference to Makoni, Mugabe gains overall, and no-one will query the higher total for Makoni, who in any case was expected to do better than he has.
If this technique is applied across the nation, it will certainly be sufficiently effective to either give Mugabe an overall victory, or at least ensure a runoff.
Virtually the same technique is being applied to fix the parliamentary elections. Only in this case votes are taken from the candidates of the Tsvangirai faction of the MDC, and added to the totals of candidates from the smaller faction led by Arthur Mutambara.
Once again it is Zanu-PF that benefits by cutting down the votes for the Tsvangirai candidates, and giving the seats to the Mutambara faction.
The plan can be seen working already in the so-called official results. The Mutambara faction failed dismally in early returns, but has recently mysteriously gained ground against the Tsvangirai faction, and now commands, for instance, five seats in Matabeleland.
That's the joint plan to fix these elections, put as simply as I can. Those who wonder why the results are being held back and released so slowly need wonder no more." (Zimbabwe Today.)

The end of disgrace and tyrany in Zimbabwe?

2008-03-30T11:23:00.000-05:00

Morgan Tsvangirai, garnered 67 percent of the 30 percent of votes so far counted, Secretary General Tendai Biti said in an interview today from Harare, Zimbabwe's capital. The MDC leads in Mashonaland Central province and won a majority in the province of Masvingo, both strongholds of Mugabe's Zimbabwe African National Union-Patriotic Front party, he said.

``This is just an example of what we're getting from every province,'' Biti said. ``Barring a miracle, Mugabe can't win.'' Bloomberg

Robert Mugabe may have played a vital role in the liberation of Zimbabwe, but what people will remmember about him, is the ruin he has brought to a people and a nation that was like a city on a hill. Zimbabwe was the bread basket of southern Africa, it's schools, hospitals even roads were the evy of the region, now Zimbabweans are crawling through razor wire to escape the mess Mugabe has unleashed.
Those that claim that forcebly grabbing land from white farmers was a patriotic and noble thing, need to realise Mugabe only played this self destructive move to foster his grip on power and to prolong his overdue stay in power. His poor choices and policies over the years had already put Zimbabwe on the path to this ruin, the land issue was meant to divert people's attention.

He is indeed a disgrace to the memory of the many that fought and died for the emancipation of Zimbabwe. That fight was to ensure a better destiny for Zimbabweans not 100,000% inflation, not empty shelves, not unemployment, not police brutality and certainly not economic exile!

Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice on Sunday branded Zimbabwe's president a "disgrace" to his people and to Africa, and expressed concerns about verifying whether the country held free and fair elections.
Rice, in the Mideast for peace talks, made the harsh comments after voting Saturday in Zimbabwe that presented Robert Mugabe with the toughest challenge to his 28-year rule. The main opposition party on Sunday claimed an early lead; preliminary results were expected by Monday. AP

Zambian Governments begins resettling isolated populations.

2008-03-28T15:22:00.000-05:00

While watching ZNBC TV today, Kashikulu learnt with happiness that the Govt is resettling people living in areas that are remote and at a high risk of experiencing disaster to safe areas closer to public infrastructure. As I have discussed here, recent floods in Zambia have overwhelmed government’s disaster intervention capacity and the specific challenge of widely dispersed and remote population concentration in rural Zambia has made intervention extremely challenging and expensive.

The Disaster management program under the National Society program support plan 2008-9 had planned for a population size of only 100,000 for disaster intervention.
However the floods impacted more than 1.5 million with an estimated 300,000 people needing immediate intervention to relieve food, water and shelter needs.

The Zambian government has an ambitious program of reducing rural poverty from the current 68% level to 20% by 2030; however this and other long term goals can be achieved through a holistic approach to our current challenges.

The absence of specific population planning for both rural and urban areas is particularly troubling for me. There appears to be no long term plans for where the houses, schools, roads, hospitals or cemeteries for the projected population growth or the 40% expected to be lifted from the current 68% poverty quota.
The chaos associated with the expansion of the city of Lusaka is a poignant symptom of the failure to plan for the future. The city’s latest building boom Meanwood has houses at various paces of construction in the Chamba valley area without specific plans of how water and sanitation will be addressed by Lusaka water Company currently failing to ensure water supply to nearby Kaunda square township or electricity from ZESCO currently unable to supply uninterrupted electricity to the city.

The city has allowed unplanned residential areas to thrive for years and the consequence is a vast population living is squalor rife with crime and diseases like cholera with unmatched number of schools, clinics or roads.

And if failure to plan at community level brings forth such chaos in urban Lusaka,what calamity does failure to plan at family level bring forth in rural Zambia?
Early marriage, which sadly entraps the rural population in a vicious cycle of poverty; Kashikulu is glad Government has promised to prosecute parents that force their children into early marriages. However here as elsewhere, real impact can only be achieved by population planning and re-evaluating the impact of customary law. I have argued that some aspects customary law undermine our development goals by fostering early marriage and traditional roles over the education of boys and girls.

Obama’s policy trajectory on Africa more pragmatic.

2008-03-21T17:23:00.000-05:00

“But we have to look at Africa not just after a crisis happens; what are we doing with respect to trade opportunities with Africa? What are we doing in terms of investment in Africa? What are we doing to pay attention to Africa consistently with respect to our foreign policy? That has been what's missing in the White House. Our long-term security is going to depend on whether we're giving children in Sudan and Zimbabwe and in Kenya the same opportunities so that they have a stake in order as opposed to violence and chaos”. Barack Obama

In case you are wondering why Obama has gained prominence on this blog, Bill Richardson who endorsed Obama today, put it best; “you are once-in-a-lifetime leader and above all a President who brings this nation together”.

Beyond, holding the best for America’s domestic troubles and ending this war that has consumed the current administration, to the detriment of Africa’s long term needs, Obama may be the best for Africa too.

The current Bush administration’s policy towards Africa, the essential thrust of which is captured by the motto: ‘Forget the rhetoric and boost the geopolitics’. Has being a measured approach that includes the strategic imperative of cultivating strong links with Africa's leading regional powers, most notably Nigeria and South Africa, harkening back to the Nixon administration's strategy of relying on such powers to ensure regional stability; limited effort building upon the Clinton administration's success in promoting US trade and investment with African countries, with a special focus on oil-producing countries; and underscoring the need for Africans to ‘do more for themselves’ in the realm of conflict resolution, suggesting a low-profile Bush administration approach to involvement in either peacekeeping or peacemaking operations.

The Clinton administration on the other hand, attempted to deal with a complex array of challenging African issues -- security, conflict resolution, democratization, human rights, trade, AIDS, and the environment. Its agenda was more broad but deficient in depth and obligation. With limited interests at stake in the post-Cold War era, he perceived no compelling reason to rally the world community for a genuine African Renaissance. The result is a tendency toward activism without follow-through. The Clinton team reacted to immediate challenges but lacked an overarching policy framework for coping effectively with the continent's long-term problems of conflict, disease, and poverty.

Barack Obama believes that strengthening weak states at risk of collapse, economic meltdown or public health crises strengthens America's security. Obama will double U.S. spending on foreign aid to $50 billion a year by 2012.
It is this trajectory of policy, that is more pragmatic, not only focusing on Africa when a crisis arises or when US interests are in danger. Obama ties US long term security goals to affording children growing up in Africa, better opportunities for life in the global world.

Traditionally republicans are less generous with people development programs that democrats but Obama has already written a law signed in 2006 that provided $52 million in US assistance to help stabilize the Congo, and he worked to approve $20 million for the African Union peacekeeping mission. Obama also worked with Sam Brownback (R-Kans.), writing an op-ed in the Washington Post criticizing the Bush administration's failure to stop genocide in Darfur.

He will help developing countries invest in sustainable democracies and demand more accountability in return. Obama will establish a $2 billion Global Education Fund to eliminate the global education deficit. He will reduce the debt of developing nations and better coordinate trade and development policies. (source Obama campaign).

Aftermath of Obama speech on Race.

2008-03-19T12:28:00.000-05:00

It is indeed a historic and important speech, no one has ever dared verbalized the pain of both black and white Americans as they both grapple with the legacy of slavery and segregation.
Until the element of race suddenly gained traction Obama appeared unstoppable. In the days leading to the Ohio primary Hillary‘s campaign launched a smear strategy in which everything was thrown at Obama including the Kitchen sink.
Instead of his hopeful and coalition building tone of his speeches, Obama has been forced to explain his dress code in Kenya, the Ferraro assertion that his candidacy is only succeeding because of affirmative action and the ultimate knockout or as many now believe was the moment the kitchen sink hit was publicizing of his pastor’s controversial remarks.

The genius of this speech is that Obama rolls up all the bad stuff and with an understanding of the core of the issues that is rare in Washington; he repackaged it all into a speech that appeals to America’s better angels to look beyond his color and come together to change America and secure a more perfect union for her children.

The setting could not have been perfect, Pennsylvania where the Governor Ed. Rendell a key Clinton backer said there are some whites here who will not vote for a black man.

However, university of Pennsylvania Political Science Professor Rogers M. Smith said this after the speech – “Pennsylvania is one of the places where Obama had to be careful not to appear to be "dissing" the black church, particularly outspoken clerical leaders, while he nonetheless did have to distance himself from the despair about white Americans and American progress that he discerned in some of Wright's sermons. The focus on Wright's comments and Obama's stance toward them was not helpful to him here, so it was risky but also wise to address the issue head on as he did,"

And for those still cringing at Rev Wright horrible words and are still reluctant to cut Obama some slack for attending his church Rev Huckabee a former republic candidates offers this.

"[Y]ou can't hold the candidate responsible for everything that people around him may say or do," Huckabee says. "It's interesting to me that there are some people on the left who are having to be very uncomfortable with what ... Wright said, when they all were all over a Jerry Falwell, or anyone on the right who said things that they found very awkward and uncomfortable, years ago. Many times those were statements lifted out of the context of a larger sermon. Sermons, after all, are rarely written word for word by pastors like Rev. Wright, who are delivering them extemporaneously, and caught up in the emotion of the moment. There are things that sometimes get said, that if you put them on paper and looked at them in print, you'd say 'Well, I didn't mean to say it quite like that.'"

Later, he defended Wright's anger, too:

"As easy as it is for those of us who are white to look back and say 'That's a terrible statement!' ... I grew up in a very segregated South. And I think that you have to cut some slack -- and I'm gonna be probably the only conservative in America who's gonna say something like this, but I'm just tellin' you -- we've gotta cut some slack to people who grew up being called names...

Obama addresses race.

2008-03-18T16:39:00.000-05:00

Keith Olbermann Slams Clinton on Ferraro

2008-03-12T22:05:00.000-05:00

Tonight, as promised, Keith Olbermann attacked Senator Hillary Clinton in a ten-minute "Special Comment," saying that he was not endorsing Barack Obama but that "events insist" that he speak and stand against her "tepid response" to the controversial remarks of Geraldine Ferraro wherein she said that Obama wouldn't have been as successful if he were not black. Last night Olbermann decried the statements as "clearly racist"; tonight, he followed up with a doozy in which he accused her of "campaigning as if Barack Obama were the Democrat and you were the Republican." In so doing, said Olbermann — in letting the opportunity to forcefully oppose Ferraro's comments pass her by — Olbermann said that Clinton had "missed a critical opportunity to do what was right." Huffington Post.

"http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/22425001/vp/23601329#23601329"

Obama vs the Tide of Race and the Establishment!

2008-03-11T20:18:00.000-05:00

Obama has just been projected winner of today's Mississipi primary, however the focus tonight as has been since men and women of African descent, sought equal standing and opportunity in these the United States of America is on race and status quo.

In the Democratic race, Mississippi voters were strongly polarized by race, even more than in most other states that voted this year. Seven in 10 whites voted for Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton, while 9 in 10 blacks voted for Sen. Barack Obama. Clinton won among both white women, a group she normally carries, and white men, a key swing group in this campaign. Clinton's margin among whites is about even with her largest margin among the group to date, which was in neighboring Alabama. Obama's margin among blacks was his second best showing with the group, after his home state of Illinois. About half of the voters in the Democratic primary were black.... AP

Ferraro.

Geraldine Ferraro Hillary Clinton's Finance chairperson told the Daily Breeze of Torrance, Calif.: "If Obama was a white man, he would not be in this position. And if he was a woman (of any color) he would not be in this position. He happens to be very lucky to be who he is. And the country is caught up in the concept."

Mainstream America, may portray a perception of equal opportunity for all. The truth, however is, that perception is only possible by regulation and enforcement of equal opportunity legislation. There is still in most aspects of American life, an auto restraint on people color. That preset limit, of how far African Americans can go in corporate America, journalism, academia and politics.
When a person of color attempts to scale beyond the preset limit of progression, the matter of race suddenly gains significant traction. Then it does not matter the level of schooling, the goodness of character or record of achievement one has, the color of skin becomes a major restraint against progression.
The current generation of Americans may be more accepting of a diverse and multi cutural America, but those little kids in the photos from America's dark past, that witnessed the abuse and suppression of African Americans are still active participants, in the sphere of American life. It is especially these blighted aging white Americans that threaten the rise of Obama.
In Pennslyvania an upcoming primary, some have blazenly declared they would never vote for a black man.
Without refering to my own experience in this the land that Ronald Reagan called "a city on a shining hill", land of liberty; Kashikulu observes with a heavy heart that it may be to the hand of time and the grace of heart to turn a leaf on matter of race.

The Dark side of Mwanawasa?

2008-02-13T13:10:00.000-06:00

The following comment, is on BBC talking point have your say discussing “Are poor deals crippling your country”

Added: Wednesday, 13 February, 2008, 12:26 GMT 12:26 UK

African leaders could avoid catastrophic deals if only they could deter themselves from getting involved in business deals for the sake of tips. Like in Zambia we have witnessed a situation where the president got involved with a bank run by a close business associate to procure oil without following tender procedures. Insurance contracts for all the government ministries have been given to the same guy. Almost all the government ministries have shifted their accounts to the same chap's bank. Hon George Mpombo, Masaiti source BBC

Is this a case of a Minister trying to out the corruption in the current presidency or might this be George Mpombo’s double?

Former President FJT has made similar claims in the recent past and I know Mr. Rajan Mahtani Finance Bank founder, has given unprecedented monetary support to MMD which may have influenced a decision to move GRZ accounts to the bank.

It’s been said that a lie will travel half way around the world while the truth is still putting on her shoes, I truly hope there is no lies being peddled in that comment.

The Irony of Mwanawasa the corruption terminator being overtly involved in the worst form, is too grave to stomach. Albeit in a world of stranger ironies, we have seen the likes of Evangelical leader Rev. Ted Haggard and former republican congressman Mark Foley in the US, breathe fire and brimstone in the light of day against gays only to embrace the lifestyle in the dark.

But what fate would Mwanawasa expect to face, after parading the king maker FJT’s underwear and shoes before courts and cameras in his brazen attempt, to convict FTJ of the same crime?

Mwanawasa is already rigged with poor health, but this would not earn him any sympathies against the wrath his culpability might, rouse. The fate of Saddam and Hitler may have met a few tears among the core of their diehard fans, but this Mwanawasa was unpopular when he, became President. He has had to assuage people’s dislike and lack of faith in a man, most thought was at least half brain dead, how could he now, betray their reluctant faith in his fight against corruption.

I would say, if the claims in the comment are indeed those of one George Mpombo, the same man that recently knelt before Mwanawasa;he has no diehard fans but more sad still, the people of Zambia have no friend, no help nor leader in government.

My abiding faith in the Bright side of Mwanawasa!

2008-02-09T12:14:00.000-06:00

My past criticism and/or praise of our most learned President has always been rooted in the abiding hope that good education especially the study of Law, will always give birth in the bearer, that insatiable desire to right injustice, to do what is moral, to advance the general welfare of men, among other virtues. Albeit a good education does not necessarily preclude someone from being evil, nor does lack of education prevent one, from doing good.
Indeed, at height of the multi party movement in early 90’s Mwanawasa’ effective use of the injunction clause in our laws did a lot good for the movement. And perhaps as a testimony to his good conscience, he resigned from Chiluba’s corrupt administration.
Since becoming President he has fought corruption with brazen vigor, there is now growing confidence in a public service delivery system that was once openly corrupt.
His recent surge in efforts to leave Zambians, a good constitution is admirable, though he should not have waited till his final term (A good chef must be first to taste his own cooking).
He has also tried to inspire Zambians to do more, to be more productive…. Whatever became of the winter maize project?
It is however, this recent move to bring in more ordinary Zambians in the mining equation, that rekindles my faith in the bright side of Mwanawasa. Nothing has given me as much grief as the marginalization of ordinary Zambians as far benefits from mining are concerned. It has always been a limited elite, in collusion with foreigners that have derived the most benefit from mining, especially gemstones mining. Those that were privy to, mining exploration data got licenses for interest areas and have kept this information and the tremendous benefit from the sell of Zambian gemstones out of public domain. Zambian emeralds account for 20% of global gemstone sells; this is why Kashikulu would like to give three cheers to our most learned president for this statement –

…There are more than 380 gemstone mine owners and over 80 other small scale mining license holders with accumulated unpaid area charges in excess of K10 billion contrary to the law," he said.
President Mwanawasa called on the defaulters to clear the area charges adding that the new mining cadastre system, which will be opened to the public soon after March 31st, 2008, will not accommodate and recognize holders of mining rights who are not compliant with the Mines and Minerals Act.
Government is determined to open up the Zambian landscape to investors.
"We are cancelling licenses not complying with the Mines and Minerals Act regardless of whether the defaulters are holders of large scale or small scale mining rights. This will be done before the new mining cadastre system opens to the public after 31st March, 2008," he said
On the fiscal regulatory reforms for the mining sector President Mwanawasa said there will be no discrimination between owners of the old privatized mines and the new investors... Zambia Daily Mail.

Magandenomics 101 – How far does $3.6 Billion go!

2008-01-26T07:33:00.000-06:00

As the wheels of the global economy, grind growth to a near halt under the weight of a slump triggered by the US sub prime mortgage crisis and high oil prices, there is debate among economists on how to jump start economic activity. Whether to implement trickle down policies that give tax breaks/other incentives to the wealthy with the hope that their quest for more wealth, will motivate them to invest more; or the trickle up policies that give monetary incentives such as tax refunds, grants, food stamps etc to the poor and middle class with the expectation that their propensity to spend will create more demand leading to more productivity in the economy.

Given the size and rigidity of the Zambian economy, this year’s national budget of 13.76 trillion kwacha reflects Mr. Magande’s attempt at making the most of both the trickle down and trickle up approach to unlock Resources for Economic Empowerment and Wealth Creation.
Reducing VAT by 1.5% may have the effect of giving some relief to both the consumers and producers putting 21.6 billion at their disposal but does this go far enough?

On the other hand, new tax measures for the mining sector which include corporate tax at 30 per cent, mineral royalty at three per cent and a variable profit of up to 15 per cent on taxable income will increase government revenue.
However might government’s continued borrowing of 1.2% of the national budget from BOZ possibly keep interest rates at uneconomic rate and erode gains from reduced VAT.

The revised Pay As You Earn (PAYE) increases the non-taxable monthly threshold income from K500, 000 to K600, 000 while those getting over K4 million per month will be paying 35 per cent instead of the previous 30 per cent effective April 1, 2008. This is another attempt at trickle up and ZK100, 000 or $26 may go some distance but is it enough to achieve a significant impact on increasing productivity in the economy.
In other aspects of the national budget Mr. Magande promised ZK 120 billion for a Citizens' Economic Empowerment Fund, however do these measures go far enough to uplift the majority of Zambians who have had no real opportunity for economic empowerment?

With unemployment over 70%, the only real relief/empowerment for these people in this year’s budget maybe the VAT reduction and this economic empowerment fund. Mr. Magande needs to do more to create jobs and more private enterprise.

Indeed, ZK 13.76 trillion or $3.6 billion maybe a small piece of cloth for our ever bloated national suit, this is essentially why am glad, Mr. Magande is learning to cut with a little bit more precision and care.

O that we might see!

2008-01-22T22:11:00.000-06:00

It’s only Zambians who can make a difference, not foreigners. But we need to have good projects to capitalize on these resources that we have. If we fail, we run the risk that others will come. And this risk around Lusaka is very apparent. Why is it that foreigners are flocking to this country in large numbers if there is nothing to be gained? I think that is the warning signal. These people coming have seen that the opportunities are there. So let us seize these opportunities ourselves before we lose what we have.' Caleb Fundanga

As I read this most poignant statement of the Zambian condition, I can indeed, envision Zambians waking up in 50 or less years to find themselves a population without means or recourse against increasing poverty.
If that is a possible future fate, what does our past look like? When westerners, first came to the land without a name, at the time over a hundred years ago; they found then as Equinox, Vedanta and others have now, a land indeed that flows with milk and honey, whose indigenous people lacked then, as now the clarity of vision to fully appreciate or exploit the wealth or opportunity before them.
Confronted with cotton clothing, new crops, horse drawn wagons etc our ancestors by assimilation enhanced some aspects of life as they had it known for generations primarily because they could see that western culture had developed the means for a better way of life. However, there appears then as now, a failure to directly see in Zambia’s abundant natural resources the real and present potential to enhance our personal lives.
I have discussed before, how a young Abe Galuni came to Northern Rhodesia penniless, yet in less than forty years he owned more land than is owned by the entire Zambian population in present day city of Lusaka (residential areas). Foreigners own more and benefit from precious stone mines than ordinary Zambians.

How can indigenous people who have lived in Mapatizya, Chama, and Mushili fail to see and recognize the potential to enhance their personal lives, gemstones in these areas have?

A friend of mine once said perhaps if one (1) million Zambians were put on plane and sent to a city like New York US, to live there for six months then flown back to Zambia, maybe then we would have a revolution!
Is that what it might take to give sight to the multitudes living in abject poverty in a land, Caleb says is so God favored and lucky or might we be blind still as in the story of –

An Old Woman having lost the use of her eyes, called in a Physician to heal them, and made this bargain with him in the presence of witnesses: that if he should cure her blindness, he should receive from her a sum of money; but if her infirmity remained, she should give him nothing. This agreement being made, the Physician, time after time, applied his salve to her eyes, and on every visit took something away, stealing all her property little by little. And when he had got all she had, he healed her and demanded the promised payment. The Old Woman, when she recovered her sight and saw none of her goods in her house, would give him nothing. The Physician insisted on his claim, and. as she still refused, summoned her before the Judge. The Old Woman, standing up in the Court, argued: "This man here speaks the truth in what he says; for I did promise to give him a sum of money if I should recover my sight: but if I continued blind, I was to give him nothing. Now he declares that I am healed. I on the contrary affirm that I am still blind; for when I lost the use of my eyes, I saw in my house various chattels and valuable goods: but now, though he swears I am cured of my blindness, I am not able to see a single thing in it.

The Long-lasting fallout of Shock & Awe – Lumwana Mine.

2008-01-15T16:25:00.000-06:00

Shock and Awe is a term recently invigorated by the Bush administration’s initial military strategy in Iraq. The term defines the show of great strength and the rapid dominance that will

"Impose this overwhelming level of Shock and Awe against an adversary on an immediate or sufficiently timely basis to paralyze its will to carry on . . . to seize control of the environment and paralyze or so overload an adversary's perceptions and understanding of events that the enemy would be incapable of resistance at the tactical and strategic levels."

The Lumwana mine project may not be a military maneuver, however its design and execution smacks of the shock and awe strategy.
After acquiring financing that the mine managing director Hurry Michael calls

“ the largest debt finance package in Africa, five international financial institutions from different countries which include South Africa, United Kingdom, Germany, Australia and Canada have agreed to lend us US$584 million for the development of the project," Post Zambia ( I think this is an overstatement, there are bigger debt package by the Chinese and others).

Equinox the foreign owners dominate the land and copper deposits in Lumwana by a hundred percent and have brought in the largest means to extract the copper.

Michael says Lumwana mine would be among the largest copper mines in the world as evidenced by the equipment that would be used at the mine.
This mine will have the largest mills and to run these mills we will need 18 mega watts of power to run each mill, three times power consumption of the of Solwezi.

In the face of this huge display of shock and awe by Equinox, Solwezi district commissioner Albert Chifita and the local people, indeed have much to be fearful of -

"The Kabwe scenario would not be repeated in Solwezi, as you may be aware that the closure of Kabwe mine in June, 1994 brought the economy of the town to its knees and everything in the area changed drastically." ALbert Chifita

The poor are at some risk of not participating in the economic opportunities of mining while bearing many of the costs as well as risks that result from the introduction of a mine in an undeveloped area such as Lumwana.

Chifita explains that government knows that minerals are wasting assets and cannot be relied upon forever adding that government was trying to diversify the economy by emphasizing on agriculture and tourism as a mode of diversification.

Mr. Chifita may be a noble pragmatist in hoping the local people should look into agriculture and tourism as the long term economic activity for the area; however the sheer scale of this mining activity in the area ensures that this remains as the current and future counterpoint of the local economy.
Agriculture, Tourism and other economic activity may thrive during the lifespan of the mine but will they withstand the absence of the multitudes that have been drawn to the area by this huge short term mining activity?

The region lies vulnerable to fallout of shock and awe - the choice of quick profit over sustainable progress.
The rapid construction, commencement of mining and associated population increase does not allow the local to plan or develop sufficient capacity to ensure long lasting benefits from this interaction. Instead the more immediate and transient demands of accommodation and consumables like food, shops etc have boomed.
Because of scale it is usually beyond the capacity of local businesses to meet the demand of high cost business needs like equipment and recurring business needs; hence supply of these needs is outsourced, giving the real business opportunities to outsiders.

Despite Mr. Michael’s pronouncements of good intent that measures will be in place to protect people and the environment from the negative effects and risks of large scale mining, the local people must always be mindful that the implementers of shock and awe have little attachment to local causes and always preclude themselves from legal liability of environmental disasters such as accidental river pollution.

Unless the Zambian government or the local administration take bold and decisive measures to regain dominance –

i) In regulating the framework of business activity between the mine and local economy and ensure local businesses are not marginalized.
ii) Regulate and enforce environmental safety standards now and post mining period.
iii) Local land administration - zoning and property taxes collection to ensure local population also access utilities water, energy.
iv) Support local capacity to develop agriculture, tourism and craft/art through grants and resource personnel.

The people of Lumwana may yet find themselves as the Broken Hill people without copper or a mainstay economy in forty years.

Mwanawasa - King or President?

2008-01-04T16:04:00.000-06:00

Mwanawasa’s recent statement regarding Prof Clive Chirwa’s intention, to contest the MMD presidency are a sad reflection of the infancy of democratic governance in Zambia.

"Now, let me give a timely warning to people who have been outside. They have been outside living in a foreign environment. They come back to the country and think that we are all foolish; we are all incapable of providing leadership and now they are God sent people,". Mwanawasa.

Does a Zambian citizen lose the rights and privileges of the constitution just because one lives abroad for a period of time?

Might this, also be a symptom of a culture or perhaps politicians, still evolving from the traditional administrative structure of chiefs to the constitutional structure of political leadership elected by universal suffrage.
Of course, there is nothing wrong with an incumbent President endorsing a preferred successor, however in the Zambian scenario, it is the personal ownership of the Presidency that Mwanawasa and Chiluba before seem to claim and enforce that sparks grave concern.
This suck up to me, kneel before me, acknowledge my slightest gesture or movement and by all means ask my permission mentality, is what I as Prof Chirwa find unpalatable.
This mindset sadly, also underscores the reason Mwanawasa and others before him seem to play games with the constitution review process.
What will become of King Mwanawasa’s ego and need for patronage, if the Zambian constitution limits the overreaching powers of the current presidency?

Of course I do not advocate disrespect of the President; on the contrary I believe the office of President is owed no more respect than prescribed by the Zambian constitution.
The Zambian people through several constitution review commissions have stated the need to reduce the executive authority of the president. We need to end the reign of this era, in which a President’s personal views or preference are deemed supreme to the constitution, such that grown men like George Mpombo and Tentamashima are so willing to sacrifice their dignity to the point of kneel or die.

Our national constitution must prescribe and guarantee,

i) Equal standing of all Zambians everywhere - men and women in the bill of rights.

ii) Appropriate due authority and autonomy to key institutions like the electoral commission.

iii) And most importantly prescribe the limit of presidential authority.

I pray that the NCC currently engaged in the review of our constitution will adopt these key recommendations- perhaps then we can see an end to the marginalization of the electorate especially women and Zambian citizens abroad, ineffective institutions and the abuse of presidential authority!

Merry Christmas and Goodwill to all!

2007-12-25T06:13:00.000-06:00

This day is unprecedented in its ability to bring joy and good will to people everywhere in this vast world. We may not share in the same language, culture even belief but somehow the world on this day shares universal joy and goodwill.

No event is perhaps more poignant than that Christmas during the first world war when warring men ceased hostilities and met on the front line to share in the joy and goodwill of Christmas!

As on the next day after this event, hostilities and suffering continues in this world, we all share yet I and many will forget our universal troubles on this day.
I will embrace joy, hope and goodwill to all mankind.

Merry Christmas and have a prosperous new year!

State of despondence part 3 – How long before Zambia attains the age of enlightenment?

2007-12-17T17:12:00.000-06:00

The lack of rationality in the manner Zambians continue to view both their constitution and national resources might evoke the question – how long before our nation attains the age of enlightenment?
How long before the correlation between the individual and the state is widely appreciated?

There is perhaps no better demonstration of the popular expression “insanity is doing the same thing over and over yet expecting different results each time” than Zambia’s constitution review process. We have had the
i) Mvunga constitution review in 1991,
ii) Mwanakatwe constitution review in 1996,
iii) Late Lucy Sichone’s call for a constituent assembly,
iv) Mung’omba constitution review in 2003,
v) Levy Mwanawasa’s Indaba 2003
vi) And now National Constitution Conference.

I expect at this point, that an eminent citizen like John Mwanakatwe or Wila Mung’omba would spearhead an intellectual movement of the Enlightened and advocate reason as the primary basis of authority and straight talk to average Zambians to end this insanity!
We know what Zambians want and expect in their constitution, why should an authoritarian president continue to trample on the greater rights of common Zambians.

On the other hand, against the run of logic and rationality a matter deserving of at least one commission has received none and as a consequence theft, corruption and wanton exploitation of Zambia’s natural resources by foreign interests continues with average Zambians fighting over leftover crumbs.
A more telling example is this recent lament of
“Former Zambia Privatization Agency (ZPA) director James Matale says the destruction of the public enterprises during the Chiluba regime that accounted for over 80 per cent of economic activity was an act of unprecedented vandalism."It surpassed even the destructiveness of the definitive Attila the Hun. Zambia lost economic investments and assets accumulated over a period of 100 years," he says."A large proportion of the famous K7 billion debt was attributable to investments in assets and operations of the public enterprises. For instance, with the destruction of Zambia Airways, Zambia lost the entire stock of civil aviation technology that she had acquired over 30 years at a great cost. I think that, in the fullness of time, when all the numbers are finally tallied up and the last statements recorded, the Zambian privatisation programme will rank as the biggest fraud in economic history."So what went wrong with Zambia's privatisation programme?Matale offers a rare insight into this monster of a programme whose benefits some Zambians have been questioning over the years.Matale explains that the programme faced resistance and opposition from several critical stakeholders.He also explains that there was a deliberate effort by powerful business interests in the government to treat enterprises and assets lined up for privatisation as goods fallen from the back of a delivery truck.The donors too had their own invisible hand on the process.” Extract from Maravi

Also troubling is capitulation of men like James Matale and others like John Mwanakatwe, Alex Chikwanda, Wila Mung’omba, and Prof Mvunga and many other distinguished, well read and educated Zambians.

How can there be, such a disconnect to the affairs of nation?

I admire the courage of Prof Clive Chirwa; and understand his indignation with the status quo. However, like many well educated Zambians before him, that have held positions where they could have at least helped influence rationality in the minds of Zambians- I wonder!
Might he not be a lone voice pushing a nation stuck in a cultural drag with roots stemming from it's past?

The Third Term reinvented!

2007-12-12T15:54:00.000-06:00

The prospect of Bill Clinton who served two terms in the white house going back there if Hilary wins the next election, amounts to a third term in the minds of many Americans. There is mounting aversion to a growing trend of leaders who have had their time in office, crafting clever ways of retaining political power after their legitimate time in office expires.

This week against the current run of analysis, Putin has endorsed Dmitry Medvedev, first deputy prime minister and chairman of the state gas behemoth Gasprom, as his choice to follow him as president in March. If Medvedev does take power, can he keep it?
His decision to ask Putin to be his prime minister if he becomes president is a public recognition that his authority depends on Putin, and that he will be circumscribed by him.

In Pakistan all General Musharraf had to do extend his stay in office was change his manner of dressing. Western concerns have eased, despite a clamp down on political opponents, the judiciary and the press - under a new ordinance, unilaterally enacted by Mr. Musharraf, television journalists face up to three years in jail for broadcasting “anything which defames or brings into ridicule the head of state”.

President General Pervez Musharraf Wednesday relinquished the charge of Chief of the Army Staff - handed over the coveted post to General Ashfaq Parvez Kayani .

And what does all this mean for our African leaders who already have a traditional inclination to extending their stay in office?

Kashikulu hopes President Mbeki, if by some stroke of luck wins this month's conference that will decide who will lead the ANC going into 2009 national elections, will not pull up a Putin move as for Mugabe I truly hope he has not being following events in Moscow or Islamabad.

Hope in the face of HIV.

2007-12-01T18:35:00.000-06:00

When is a Picture worth a thousand words?
No words could ever convey the change on Silvia's face.
Vanity Fair sent photographer Antonin Kratochvil to Zambia in March this year, to do a before and after ARV story on HIV persons - in an effort to lobby for more funding, for cheaper drugs. The result could not have been more convincing!

On this World AIDS day, Kashikulu would like to encourage Zambians in Diaspora to continue supporting charity organizations like Red campaign , World Vision and others - it's amazing what $20 on your credit card every month can do!