Black and Blue: A Dodgers Blog

The Dodgers Should Know Better

2009-01-15T11:45:00.000-08:00

Back in the day when Guillermo Mota was taking steroids with Eric Gagne and either doing the 7'th or 8'th inning, I really liked the guy. I'll even go so far as admitting I was sad to see him traded. The regret that I had didn't last long. He started sucking almost immediately and then the truth came out that he was using PED's. He just bounces around from team to team sucking as a reliever.

Well, for some reason the dodgers think they can rehabilitate him. And for some reason they thought spending 2.3-2.8 million on this guy was a good idea. What irks me most is they just let Beimel walk. While his performance declined (I believe because of misuse by Torre) he is a far more valuable pitcher than Mota could hope to be short of shooting up again. Heck, the two and a half to three million dollars would have been better gambled on Saito's elbow. Got the point that I don't like this signing yet?

Oh, and today the dodgers empty the garbage, disposing of Andruw Jones by releasing him if they haven't scrounged a deal like one scrounges for loose change in the couch for a Del Taco run. Wonder when it will be made official.

I'm out...

Finally!

2009-01-08T09:45:00.000-08:00

This offseason the Boston red sox is like the awkward fat kid at the birthday pool party. You saw him in his swim trunks, but he kept slowly pacing around the pool, and you kept wondering when he was going to jump in. The red sox finally made their splash into the free agent market by signing Rocco Baldelli, a guy who's name, look, and state of origin all scream new england. The biggest part of the splash that hit the pretty girls pretending to get a tan over their orange spraypaint was the surprise swoop up and grab of John Smoltz. Wow. I don't think anyone saw that coming. If it's rotation depth and insurance against Buccholz and Masterson painfully bellyflopping at the mlb level, they now have it. They now have Beckett, Dice-K, Lester, Wakefield, Penny, and now Smoltz, with Buccholz and Masterson waiting in the wings for their chance.

I think part of me is overreacting because this is just another low risk contract to an injured pitcher that may or may not be permanently damaged goods. Smoltz is extremely old. You do have to take into account that the 4 or 5 years he closed saved a bit on the odometer in his arm. I think he'll be healthy.

Baldelli is another question mark. I'm sure he'll be at least an adequate fourth outfielder, but what if J.D. Drew performs one of his disappearing acts with some obscure injury? In my opinion, the sox might have been better served grabbing the groveling Jay Payton for the "sure thing" in the fourth outfielder market. But Baldelli could have huge upside if his health really can be kept under control enough for him to play full time or nearly full time. I think that's a reasonable risk to take. It seems that's all the red sox have done so far is bet money on injury risks. At least one of the gambles will pay off to make up for the ones that don't. For example the sox give 5 million each to Smoltz and Penny. If one of them pitches well, that's still 10 million for a good performing pitcher, which while not a coup, is still a better value than signing Jon Garland his 12 million to pitch league average plus or minus a little and having to commit 3 or 4 years to him. They both will have incentives in the deal so you would have to add 3-5 million to the 10 million, but still that equals about what you'd pay a free agent, except the red sox are only on the hook for one year.

These signings don't always work out, though. The dodgers tried a reclamation project on Randy Wolf. It pretty much failed and he was the only guy brought in so situated. If they'd signed 3 guys like that would it be worth it? You also have to take into account NRI guys like Takashi Saito latch on and have an impact, which makes up in part on money wasted on injured players, but it's a crapshoot. Why does this seem to work with pitchers but not for, let's say, center fielders?

I like the idea, I don't know if it's been done before, in this mass-signing of rehabbers hoping one or two turn out to make up for the ones that fail. I wonder if that's even the strategy the red sox are employing. Maybe they're just scrambling around, but I doubt it because it seems ridiculous that free agents wouldn't want to play for Boston since they are a winning team year after year. I'm not a sox fan, but I'm still shocked that Teixeira signed with the yankees. It still makes no sense for me with all the old people on the yanks to clog up first base. Maybe the yankees are just prepared to release guys like Matsui and eat their contracts a la L.A. and Andruw Jones. What I also don't understand is why the sox wouldn't at least attempt to keep Lowe away from the yankees by at least pretending to have interest in him. Don't think the yankees won't go bat shit crazy and add Lowe once he gets pissed enough with the Mets lowballing him to bolt and sign for less than his 16 million price tag. The media may have maligned him on the way out, but they can rehab his image for his homecoming with a line of crap about him cleaning up his personal life and straightening up after the rude awakening of the sox not wanting him back when he was previously a free agent.

o.k. I've rambled enough for today...oh wait, I forgot to mention the dodgers lost out on Trevor Hoffman. Yawn. It's o.k. It might have been a nice treat at 4-5 million with incentives, but a closer isn't really on the shopping list this offseason.

Only 9 More Days of Andruw Jones! Start the Countdown!

2009-01-06T08:27:00.000-08:00

I hesitated about posting again about Andruw even though a few more things were made clear about that whole contract restructuring thing because I wanted everything to be made clear before going on and on speculating on the various scenarios regarding a player I'd rather not think that much about. So now we know the deadline bartered for in the restructuring requires the dodgers to trade or release him by the 15'th and that his 22.1 million bucks has been spread over 6 years. According to Cot's, he gets no interest on the deferred money. That's about 3.7 mil/year? I'm surprised about the no interest part. Now onto sox-related faire.

Puck is none too happy the sox were linked to Saito in the press. She was unhappy when the dodgers didn't even offer Beimel arbitration, also. Proctor? She's glad he's gone. She understands the concept of not paying relievers lots of money because of the uncertainty in them being able to reproduce their production, and about the dodgers needing to make room for their younger pitchers, but she doesn't care. Since the sox are interested in Saito, I'll link and blab a bit about his arm. Apparently he suffered a torn ligament in his elbow last season and instead of having Tommy John surgery he had stem cells injected into it, rested two months, and had back at it (it's only a flesh wound!) near the end of the season with mixed results. So yeah, his elbow is a mess and he's 38. I can understand not gambling 2-3 million all guaranteed for that. If it weren't the sox interested in him, I'm sure the whole thing about his elbow would be in the second sentence, but huge deference is given to the red sox organization's ability to judge talent and work with injuries. If that sounded bitter, it was lol. I really hope they kind of work something out with him. Speaking of old closers, Trevor is being all buddy-buddy with the brewers, and with Moorad et al buying the padres, there's talk of him re-signing with San Diego.

Now back to Andruw. Despite my happiness that Andruw will be gone soon, and the fact that it seems the dodgers' GM has seemed to have gotten better at his job, I can't help but think this move comes back to haunt them deep in a pennant race near the deadline in the next 3 seasons or so. It would be the dodgers luck that Andruw's 3.7 million (guesstimating based on Cot's and what I've read) would be the cash that prevents the dodgers from adding payroll while in a pennant race. They may still make the move, but it will be Casey Blake style (giving away good prospects with even better names like Carlos Santana just to get the other side to pay salary). One of those moves will be what really irks me 3-4 years or so removed from the trade when said prospect is a budding star or phenom for another team. Santana specifically may make me want to spit by the end of the '09 season.

Guess There Was Already Some Scratching Going On

2009-01-01T19:50:00.001-08:00

This goes to show how little imagination and how Forrest I feel two hours or so after making that last post. I guess I am about three steps behind the dodgers front office. I was watching MLBTV and then Leiter, Larkin, and Reynolds start talking about Manny and then Jones.

So apparently Boras, Andruw, Manny and the dodgers are trying to work out money and contracts that would end up with Manny a dodger and Andruw Jones not-a-dodger. How this would work out makes me feel about as smart as Pedro Guerrero (who's lawyer defended him on a drug charge by stating poor Pedro's IQ was 72 and was essentially too dumb to have participated in the drug offenses he was charged with). The deferred buyout thing sounds feasible but that still doesn't save the dodgers any money or make a trade scenario work without the dodgers still basically sending money to whichever team gets him...they just defer how long before Jones gets his money while still playing for another team. I think I just need to let this one play out instead of overthinking what sounds to be an extremely complicated transaction.

Scratch Boras' Back, Maybe He'll Scratch Yours

2009-01-01T17:18:00.001-08:00

I couldn't have imagined the offseason going as it has. I really thought Sabathia was above taking a boatload of cash to head to the evil empire. I was wrong. I also thought the dodgers and Manny were a match made in some strange hell. I think I'm still right on that. So, a lot of Boras clients are having trouble with the market Boras thought he could establish for them because he scared skiddish owners away from even talking to him. The dodgers are a beneficiary of some crazy luck in regards to this with Manny Ramirez. If the dodgers were smart and the McCourts opened up their wallet a little more, they could be the team to beat just by bailing out Boras a bit. Here's my evil plan.

The dodgers coax out a quicker resolution with Manny at 2 years 46 million with a 3'rd year team option for another 23 in exchange for some true bidding on the dodgers part for Boras client Derek Lowe. Derek, Boras, and the dodgers all know Derek hates L.A (really bad infield defenses coupled with worse offense will kill the numbers of a pitcher even as talented as Lowe is). Dodgers would love to have him back (it's the truth). Lowe would float it out there that he would reconsider the dodgers if the price were right. Dodgers proceed to get "serious" in negotiations for Lowe. Numbers get floated to the press. All of a sudden New York mets fans are sounding as impatient as a lot of dodger fans are right now about Manny. The hot stove pressure cooker squeezes a few more million a year (I think he deserves it myself) out of the Mets and it's a win-win for everyone (except maybe Oliver Perez).

What if the plan fails and the mets just work out something with Oliver Perez instead? Well, that's still a win-win as far as the dodgers are concerned. They can still afford Lowe. Their payroll is still under last year's. Jeff Kent (9 mill) Nomar (8.5 million) Lowe (10 mill) Penny (8.5 mill) all came off the books. They even saved money re-signing Furcal (about 3 a year). They're 39 million under where they were last year in terms of just FA leaving. 23 million to Manny still leaves 14-15 million to give to Lowe easily. That would wrap up the dodgers offseason and leave it with a rotation of:

Lowe

Billingsley

Kuroda

Kershaw

McDonald/Stults/Elbert/Kuo/Circus Vargas/NRI

the lineup will look decent with:

Furcal ss

Martin c

Ethier rf

Manny lf

Kemp cf

Loney 1b

Blake 3b

DeWitt 2b

The lineup is just hard to predict because guys like Kemp, Ethier, and Loney aren't really clearly defined as hitters yet and all saw time hitting ahead of Manny or as #3-4-or5 hitters. Torre moved the kids all over the place and I don't see why he wouldn't do that this year until someone breaks out and goes on a streak that becomes the new "them" as a hitter.

There's a lot improved about that new team. DeWitt full time at second owns Kent and his very limited range. A healthy Furcal covers a lot of ground (but then throws a few away with that rifle of his). I'm mixed on my take on Blake's defense but you have to figure what Blake can't get to to his left, Furcal will get to his right. Loney has good defense over at first. Maybe Martin will play more within himself this season and his defense will go back to what it used to be, especially with throwing out baserunners. Hate to say this but if Torre falls out of love with Blake DeWitt, at least they have Loretta there as a backup as they go through the usual suspects...I mean prospect middle infielders. Hard to say how DeWitt is going to turn out as he didn't show any power, but then again he was hardly pitched to in the number 8 hole. He dutifully took his walks most of the time.

The outfield may be in a bit of transition, so it might even out. Kemp doesn't look totally comfortable in center, but he's going to have to play there the majority of the time under this scenario and will most likely get better. Ethier has gunned down enough people to have a rep to not run on him. Jones should solidly improve the outfield defense when Kemp, Ethier, or Manny are on a day off. Pierre is alright in center but you have to worry about people running on his arm. Both kids will lose a day or so a week to Pierre and Jones. I'm sure Manny will love that the surplus of outfielders gives him a great excuse to rest his knees at least once or twice a week as well. That just might work out except for the fact that without Manny this team offensively isn't much to be scared of until one or two of the kids breaks out. The defense should be alright. Manny didn't look that bad in left at dodger stadium. I think his defense is ever so slightly underrated because he plays defense smart despite being extremely slow.

Wow. I spent way too much time pondering a pretend team.

Circus Vargas! Circus Vargas!

2008-12-31T09:21:00.000-08:00

Dodgers signed journeyman pitcher Claudio Vargas no doubt as veteran insurance for their rotation should young arms falter. I'm ok with this as the guy is nearly league average in limited innings and he gets paid no more than 1 and a half million to do it. This is a lot better than signing people like Brett Tomko for 4 million and have him pitching the 7'th inning down the stretch because he didn't work out as a starter. It's been pretty expensive, but it seems Colletti is getting better at his job. Or maybe his assistant GMs are able to give him more input. /shrugs. I dunno.

Red Sox Sign Penny

2008-12-31T07:53:00.000-08:00

How to come to your own take would be to read a bunch of the articles linked to in his rotoworld news page.

My take: Red Sox got a good deal. I thought Penny was worth the option. The dodgers didn't. Ken Gurnick, the guy that follows the dodgers for the mlb.com family of sites hinted that the dodgers don't like his attitude (he was kinda sour grapes during the playoffs), his work ethic (I think this is the main reason), and I'm going to have to assume his injuries factor in there somewhere.

But enough about my uninformed opinions, let's get to Penny's history with the dodgers. He came over in a trade with the marlins. He was supposed to be flipped to Arizona with others for Randy Johnson but GM Paul DePodesta backed out of that trade with the diamondbacks and yankees. Harsh words were flung around about never dealing with the dodgers again lalala.
Yankees and Arizona worked out a trade later without the dodgers.

Penny started a few times after being acquired before having to be dl'd with what was at first just a mysterious arm injury that ended up being a pinched nerve. They rested him and then put him back out there but he still was ineffective and bothered by the nerve. He finally had it cut in the offseason and was fine after that. He's had a problem with his shoulder being sore like almost every pitcher does, but I believe he's never had anyone fooling around in there (except to ensure he hadn't torn a labrum or rotator cuff when they weren't sure what was wrong with his arm yet).

The thing that bothered me the most about him medically was an la times or a dodgers mailbag article (can't find it) where he complained about his back. Look at his pre and post all star game splits year-by-year. Penny typically starts off like a very dominant pitcher (and gets into the all star game) and then completely disappears the rest of the season all Jekyll and Hyde style. He said that some of his problems were due to pain in his back that didn't allow him to throw the split fingered fastball that he used to use as his out pitch (Penny throws a 4& 2 seamer, what used to be a looping curve that's now almost a slurve, a weak change up, and used to throw a splitter). So he started pitching to contact (watch the lowered k/9) with mixed results.

Another rap on him was the bitching you and your father do about Dice-K. Penny, could hit 100 pitches before getting through the fifth inning. That was another reason he chose to try to pitch to contact a season or two ago. So even if he's completely healthy don't expect him to go deep into games, as he misses few bats.

Penny got knocked around badly this year. It was hard to watch. People keep talking about his last appearance in the all star game as a reliever throwing 99 mph. That's all well and good, but when he was throwing 95+ as a starter, he would still get hit and hit hard. Reason he was is because his pitches had zero movement because (in my opinion) he was trying to protect his back. Now to tie this in with the rumor dropped in a dodgers mailbag article about why Penny's option wasn't picked up. Gurnick hinted that the dodgers weren't happy about his work ethic. I'm thinking that was in part due to his back. He has a bit of a gut but he wasn't hungry-hungry hippo looking like Sidney Ponson.

This leads me to believe there is next to nothing wrong with Penny's arm/shoulder--at least a kind of problem that stops him from throwing the ball extremely hard. He was throwing 95 in the start before he was put on the disabled list. He was throwing 98-99 before coming off the disabled list but had to be put right back on two starts later and stayed there for good. The guy never lost velocity, which you would expect if your shoulder is bothering you. The doctors found scar tissue in the shoulder on MRI that may be impinging his rotator cuff--that's the closest thing to defining the shoulder problem that I can find.

Right after that the organization put it out there that they might not pick up his option if he continued to have problems with the shoulder, with the article about being unhappy with his work ethic not coming out until November. All pitchers deal with some level of soreness, but it doesn't usually kill half your season. ***(go to rotoworld.com and look at the articles linked to in his player information page because I'm going mostly on memory)***

I believe It's primarily his back, and Penny's got to be the guy motivated enough to do the exercise it takes to keep those muscles strong back there so he can throw his breaking pitches for strikes again so guys aren't just sitting on his fastball (yes, that's what people did because it was that straight). All this talk about the Red Sox shoulder program is a great match for Penny is a bunch of hogwash homerism that tries to find genius in every move the red sox make. I'm sure the sox rehab program and people are great, but Penny probably doesn't have shoulder problems (at least the kind I'm used to seeing where the guy goes out there and throws 88 mph when he usually sits at 92-93), and if he does it's not doing anything to his velocity.

I think I've repeated myself through here enough times to almost want to check if some guy named William who's last name starts with a B might really be my biological father. To offset all the smack I just did about Penny, he is a fierce competitor. I wouldn't be surprised that the recent derailment of his career/earning potential might be just what was needed to restore his work ethic if that is indeed the problem. Add in that he's only their 3'rd or 4'th best pitcher in terms of talent where he was used to being called the ace or at worst a #2 in L.A. Penny, when healthy, is a dominant pitcher who should've won a C.Y. already. All he needs are his breaking pitches to work and movement on his 2 seamer and he's set to pitch very well, even in the A.L. beast. He's a bargain for the sox at 5+ million. I wish he would've been willing to do the work to be the best he could be as a dodger, but I can also see why he didn't (bad defenses, high turnover, being the "top dog" already on the team, oh yeah, and poor ass run support). Good luck with that, Biz.

I Might Have to Post This On My Wall

2008-12-31T07:01:00.000-08:00

There must be a pig flying somewhere. There also should be a small glacier somewhere in hell. Scott Boras came crawling back. My jaw dropped. I'm not so sure Colletti's voice was raspy from laryngitis or if he was trying to make sure he didn't bust out laughing to the reporter. This is really the best case scenario for the dodgers after exploring the other options. With Adrian Beltre, Boras steered his client away from L.A. without a chance to match an offer and never a chance to meet with Boras' client.

I take much glee in seeing Boras' mouth stuffed with crow.

Bizut, I had read that comment the day after you posted it, but I read it in my email instead of on the blog, forgotten about it, but here's along the lines of what I was thinking after having read it: You should still like/follow the red sox. They have home grown talent right now. They are a big market team so expect a few (or more) in-prime superstar free agents. They kinda have no choice with Lowell because third baseman are/were hard to find, and the red sox did well to pick him up (he was kinda garbage around the time of the trade...he was salary dumpage). They really should let Varitek skip into a forced retirement as a lesson to Boras and any other vet that thinks they can ransom the sox. But anyway, shouldn't you be happy that the red sox lost out on him (it's probably which team you lost him to rather than losing Teix) but still. I think the sox are in a great position. They have resources, but they also have a front office that (most of the time, anyways) is great at finding deals/bargains/overperformers in any section of whatever big box retailer they are in...even the deals that require a lot of capital (Dice-K), or prospects (Beckett, I think the red sox have still done okay without a real shortstop). The yanks don't look for and sign your Wakefield type guy to a huge deal of a contract and keep him around because it's smart, they go for broke. They are the king kong of the baseball franchise world, they only use brute force. Yanks have Damon in left/DH while the red sox have Ellsbury.

Don't worry, Bizut, the sox aren't dumb, which is more than I can say about the yanks. They may have signed CC, Burnett, and Teixeira, but they have too many old guys for 1 DH spot, a crowded outfield that's going to be bad defensively. If I were facing the yankees I would try my best to hit it up the middle because Jeter and Cano can't field. They suck defensively at catcher with or without Posada. First base is clogged up now so Girardi is going to piss off a lot of players by not giving them the amount of playing time they're used to.

So, the sox may have their problems, but the yankees still have theirs in a bunch of bad contracts they can't dump on anyone else because nobody else could afford those contracts when they were handed out to begin with and all the owners are "apparently" brok (I don't believe that, it's just a great excuse to keep salaries from going even higher, except that the yankees don't want to play along). When Mark Teixeira is a 35 year old DH that looks a lot more like Greg Luzinski you won't be so down on the sox. The sox could've used Teixeira, but they don't need him (as long as Lowell holds up).

I totally forgot to post this

2008-12-23T13:50:00.000-08:00

I forgot to post about this but my other half went to a company christmas party about a week and a half ago. Afterwards she went to this bar and won the v.i.p. treatment on a couch to watch this glam metal rock tribute band. In the audience was former padres relief pitcher Clay Hensley (cnicknamed 'The Claw' because of his sidearm delivery) and padres 5'th outfielder Paul McAnulty. Puck said they walked right by her and her work friends and that they looked like normal guys except for being a bit too old to be sporting the jock look. She became aware that there were Z list celebs when the band announced to the audience that 'The Claw' had signed a contract with the astros. So Puck scooped out all the reporters in telling me that Hensley was on the astros. So I chuckled when I read the reported deal on rotoworld.com a week and a half later.

Yanks Come Out Of Nowhere and Sign Teixeira

2008-12-23T13:03:00.001-08:00

The original rumors didn't surprise me because the yanks are rumored to be after anyone and everyone. This signing is good for the yankees as it puts a new, young, slugger in his prime in the heart of an ever aging yankees lineup. Who do the yanks bat third, Teixeira or Rodriguez? Who knows? They both have that unclutch reputation.

Now on to the part my audience of one wants to read This signing to me was more of just a snaking a player from the Red Sox to keep them down than an effort to make their team better. They had plenty of players that can hit to DH or play first. In fact, with all the old players they have it would make sense to keep first base open. This does however help the team New York ends up dumping Melky, Nady (if they think his '08 was a fluke and sell high, but they won't be able to trade him once they agree on a contract for months) or Damon on, as they have no leverage. Maybe the yanks are going to give a long look to that prospect Brett Gardner. The team needs a real center fielder because Swisher is a corner, and kind of mediocre at that (for the yankees). I wouldn't be surprsed if he's dealt and they go after Baldelli so that they have a guy they won't take up a huge amount of at-bats to keep all the outfielders happy. I wonder what happens to Wilson Betemit because of this. He stands to lose playing time as well.

This hurts the sox. The sox had the opportunity to sign a star first baseman in his prime which would have moved Youkilis to third baseman so the team wouldn't be totally reliant upon the aging Mike Lowell who's production faltered in '08. The missed opportunity of trading Lowell while he still has value is what hurts the most. They could have gotten a lot for him. So this offseason ends up looking like the last few years in that the sox need a shortstop (if they don't believe in Lowrie) and a center fielder (if they don't believe in Ellsbury, which I'm sure they still do) so all they really need is pitching, and the best pitcher is gone. Right now they've got:

Beckett
Dice-K
Lester
Wakefield--If no starter is signed, he's going to see his innings increase and I don't think that's a good thing.
Buccholz--As a non-sox fan I'm not sold on Buccholz and I don't think the sox give him much of a leash.
Masterson-I'm not sure how the sox feel about him as a starter. They can't load 200 innings on him after he pitched about 150 between the minors and the big club. So he might be the ideal 5'th starter candidate.
Here's what's left:

Derek Lowe-----Probably the best pitcher left. Has been a great pitcher since the sox let him go.Will be worth the 14-16mil.
Paul Byrd-------Average, durable pitcher. Great 5'th starter for a good team like the sox.
Bartolo Colon----Don't think the sox want to tempt fate by adding him as a 5'th starter/swingman
Elmer Dessens---Capable swingman/long reliever in small doses
Jon Garland-----He's just like Paul Byrd, an average to slightly above average pitcher that is durable. Decent 5'th starter type
Randy Johnson---He wouldn't want to play for the sox. He likes the west coast too much. He's pulling a David Wells.
Braden Looper---Not sold on him as a starter, might as well sign Byrd or Garland
Pedro---------That would be sweet, but he's too brittle and might not bounce back. He can't do over 150 innings.
Brad Penny------If he got pissed off enough to lose weight & work on his back he could be the best value signing.
Oliver Perez-----Too inconsistent for losing a draft pick over.
Andy Pettitte----He'd be ok as a 5'th starter, but his ego demands 15 million dollars, and he's a yankee. He's not an option.
Curt Schilling----Screw him. Too old, too big a mouth, and too much of an injury. Let him play his video games.
Ben Sheets------Great pitcher with an even greater injury risk.
Randy Wolf-----Might be a nice idea but probably gets hammered in that park and division--plus he gets hurt.

If I were the sox my strategy would be to sign someone that can keep Wakefield a 5'th starter or maybe even a spot starter until Masterson is ready to go full time. Also have to prepare for the certainty of injury to at least Beckett, the Diceman, and possibly Lester. That alone would be enough work for Masterson while still adding a new starter. There really isn't anyone out there that pitches markedly above average consistently and doesn't have any question marks except Lowe. If they want to replace the injury innings then they should just re-sign Byrd or sign Garland and push Wakefield back down to 5'th starter. Hopefully Buccholz remembers how to pitch sometime in '09 so he can get another look down the stretch.

All this said, the red sox staff without any additions is ready for prime time. When all you're trying to do is keep Wakefield a 5'th starter or spot starter you know you have a strong pitching staff. Adding someone is just either icing on the cake for a Lowe signing or the equivalent of adding another layer of frosting depth if a different starter is added. Not much to do with the pen either, but please leave Mike Timlin's arm out of it.

Furcalcations

2008-12-18T10:44:00.000-08:00

I guess that means the implications stemming from re-signing Furcal.

I guess you could conclude that next season's deadline trade bait would include a middle infielder out of Hu, Abreu, or DeJesus. This doesn't completely kill the chance of one of those playing their way into a job Blake DeWitt style, as Furcal will probably go through a DL stint next season at some point.

The dodgers aren't going "youth" as an excuse to slash payroll like the pads and d-backs. I was scared this was the case and that the pursuit of Furcal was halfhearted.This not being the case, I guess it's safe to bet the dodgers will try to add Manny or an alternative like Bobby Abreu and a pitcher.

A trade of Juan Pierre or Andruw Jones just got easier to pull off. Chances are it still doesn't happen, but now that the team has no holes except for a 5'th starter and a backup catcher, the dodgers are in a better position to match up with teams to dump the salary nightmares that are Jones and Pierre. Some team should want to take a chance on Jones as he's in his walk year and is already done interviews in the winter league talking about how he's lost weight and is getting his confidence back. The reds are a team that could use him. They could use Pierre too. The braves, white sox, florida, astros, brewers, royals...basically a lot of teams might want one or the other to varying degrees. Hopefully Pierre & Jones both showcase often enough and well next season to bolster interest.

The ability to trade for Jake Peavy just increased. The trio of middle infield prospects just got a bit more expendable. The padres need a real shortstop as right now they're targeting vet scrubs.

The leadoff role is taken care of.

The infield defense just got better. Plan B was the kids and Angel Berroa rotating. Despite the good D some may have, when you don't play everyday you're bound to make more mistakes in the field. This is important because Casey Blake doesn't seem to cover that much ground and DeWitt may not cover that much ground as a third baseman covering second. An unhurt Furcal covers lots of ground, you just have to watch out for the wild throws.

Torre is happier with his team. You can tell he loves Furcal. That might turn out to him hanging around longer before hanging them up as a manager.

Furcal Finally Makes Up His Damned Mind

2008-12-17T19:58:00.000-08:00

Yesterday, I kind of avoided a session of online Mario Kart Wii with family because I figured the story would break last night. It didn't. Mostly I haven't done Mario Kart online because I suck at it still. More so that it's been so long since I'd played. So I've played for an hour the last two days trying to get my bearings back on that game. Oh wait, I was supposed to be talking about Furcal's new deal with the dodgers... .

So it's either 30/3 years or 33/3 years. Three million of it is paid as a deferred signing bonus. There's a 600 PA vesting option for 12 million. 600 ab's would be hard but I'm not so sure 600 pa's is too difficult if you're batting leadoff and play at least 120 games. If the contract is for 30/3 them I'm mildly impressed. I just hope he stays healthy. If he does, he'll earn his contract and then some. I'm glad I don't have to wonder what the heck Furcal is doing today and the dodgers can move on with their offseason plans.

Oh yeah it's still sleeting/snowing here. Not just a dusting either. I was shocked at first, but now I'm just kinda pissed. I have pictures and I'll post them when I get around to it. We moved to not have to deal with this. They are supposed to de-ice the roads tonight (by that I'm assuming just the interstates and major highways).

More Anger Lobbed C.C.'s Way

2008-12-10T09:22:00.000-08:00

No, I'm not done yet. You will rue this day, C.C.! You will rue it when you wake up one morning and your team, if it can be called that (more like a bunch of mercenaries), is in last place, you're dating Madonna and the Steinbrenners are openly regretting your contract in the press the day after any start where you give up more than two runs. You will also read in the papers that it's your fault the team couldn't add offense when the yanks are failing to produce runs in a slump. When it gets you too down, just go to an ATM and check your balance. If it's worse than bad take out about 10 grand and jerk off on it, because God knows you're too fucking fat to roll around on it in bed without tearing most of the bills. Things could have been different, C.C. I thought you were different man, but you're just a buster! I wouldn't even try to visit Vallejo without bodyguards in the future if I were you.

O.K. I think I'm done now.

C.C., you stink, and I hate you!

--guess not

Why, C.C!?!? Whyyyyy!?!?!?!

2008-12-10T06:53:00.000-08:00

Screw the yanks. It's not fair. They shouldn't be allowed to have all the good pitching. They don't even deserve any of the decent free agent pitchers with all the old position players on the team. Why, C.C.!?! Why!?!?

/5 year old off.

This morning reminds me of when the angels got Vlad because the dodgers couldn't get the money together (or the approval of mlb) to offer Vlad Guerrero the contract they wanted, so he went to the angels. Dodgers can't get their crap together in time to give C.C. an offer when he tells someone to tell someone to give him one because he'd like to play there but nooooooooooooo!!!! /5year old off again. Not how I wanted to wake up this morning.

Why Casey Blake Is So Important to the Dodgers Offseason

2008-12-08T19:15:00.000-08:00

I should try to sneak into the Bellagio, but I won't. But if I did and somehow managed to sneak into Ned Colletti's suite he would probably be babbling on about why he has to get a deal done with Blake. Stupid fan that I am would ask him why the heck is he bothering with bitch-ass Casey Blake when he could've answered C.C. this afternoon in the hallway with a shouting, "Yes! I want you to be a dodger too!"

Here's the answer...I think. Casey Blake plays third base. He's an average third baseman. Nobody really needs him because they have better...except of course the dodgers. The dodgers have hardly any infield with the mass exodus of free agents. Committed payroll is about 60 million for 2009. Shortstops and second baseman are so hot they are still mulling and in the case of Furcal outright rejecting offers. The calculation is that it's much easier to pay Mr. Mediocre to shore up third base, shift Blake DeWitt to second base, and allow young players to fight it out for shortstop if Furcal generates offers enough to leave the dodgers behind. Of course the market for Furcal may implode and he may come crawling back, but the dodgers can't afford to wait that out while Casey Blake signs elsewhere.

So the cost of waiting and the cost of filling the infield with a high priced second baseman and/or shortstop that a ton of other clubs are interested versus the cost of quickly and cheaply filling third baseman and then focusing on pitching and left field happens to make Casey freakin' Blake the linchpin for a successful dodgers offseason. Not signing Blake probably would make for a dodgers offseason without a competitive offer for Sabathia because they'd either spend too much time bidding over infielders that their money is too tight to make a competitive offer to Sabathia or they win protracted battles for O-dog and/or Rafael Furcal and be too broke to. Either way, Casey, you save the day.

Would Luis Castillo Be A Decent Fit?

2008-12-07T15:41:00.000-08:00

So according to some idiot that makes up and writes/reports rumors for a living for FOX, the mets really want to get rid of Luis Castillo. As you may or may not know, Castillo is signed until 2011 at 6 million per year. Just offhand I remember a few articles mentioning how the mets organization wasn't too thrilled with his work ethic and how well he maintains his body. Two big red flags. Looking at the numbers he's solid in getting on base. He's got a bit of speed left in him. He seems to either been injured or just benched because of the aforementioned unhappiness of the organization with him because his at bats are limited to just under 300. I believe his defensive rep isn't that great but that would probably still mean he's a tad better than Kent's defense last season.

On the other hand, Castillo has publicly begged not to be traded and has reportedly worked out like he should have been doing the last few years or so after he signed that deal with the mets. He could totally give up once traded or work even harder to show the mets they made a mistake in not sticking with him.

I'd want him except for that onerous contract. 6 million isn't that big to a big market team like the dodgers, but they have too many other mistakes on the books to take Castillo as a stopgap second baseman until the younger players sort themselves out. He would be the third hardest to trade member of the team behind Andruw Jones and Juan Pierre.

So as nice as it would be to stick Blake DeWitt at third base and abandon the sheep in wolves clothing that are the third base free agents, I think the dodgers should pass on a cheaply obtainable second baseman with a fugly contract.

Just imagine Frank McCourt calling the Suze Orman show during the 'Can I afford it?' segment and trying to justify adding a 6 million dollar second baseman. You managed to do that? You've got a better imagination than I do then.

Why the Dodgers Could Use Varitek

2008-12-07T13:35:00.000-08:00

Can't believe I'm writing a post titled this. I can't believe Varitek declined arbitration. I still wouldn't want him. Given the rumor that Varitek won't accept arbitration I have to predict he won't be going back to the sox and will go to the first team that will give him more than one year and more than 10 mil/per.

So why could the dodgers use him when there's plenty of teams without decent catchers like the Red Sox, Tigers, Phillies, Mets, Brewers, Reds, Blue Jays, Marlins, Pirates, and Royals (every team past the reds needs a catcher but won't be a player for Varitek because they either have no money or they suck too hard and are rebuilding, and nothing says rebuilding than signing a 36 year old free agent catcher to a multiyear contract)?

To make nice with Boras. Kinda like that article that talked about Varitek and Teixeira being packaged. Boras decides for most of his clients where they're going and then orchestrates a plan that ensures his clients get paid the most based on where/when/how/what they sign.

Varitek is going to have a tough time. A team with some money to throw around like the dodgers could help Boras out with one of his tougher cases. In return Boras could help the dodgers out in two ways that I'm aware of.

Help orchestrate a trade of Andruw Jones out of L.A.
Help the dodgers sign one or more of the following free agents: Manny, Teixeira, Lowe, Byung-Hyun Kim, Oliver Perez, and Joe Crede (unnecessary if Martin is moved to third)

These are both important to the dodgers. Depending on what the dodgers really want to do this offseason, clearing out Jones' payroll or winning the free agent lottery on Manny or Teixeira may be worth downgrading at catcher and limiting production at third by moving Russell Martin there. Clearing even most of Jones salary off the books might be what the dodgers need to be able to sign both Manny and Teixeira. Hopefully they leave one for another team and seriously talk to Sabathia if they have that much cash to use, but hey, it's not my money.

Russell Martin to third base removes the need to negotiate further with Casey Blake and keeps Blake DeWitt at second. Now if the dodgers hadn't traded away a great catching prospect in Carlos Santana there might never be a reason to move Martin back after Tek is gone.

Being the surprise recipients of Teixeira would allow the dodgers to trade Loney for a shortstop, or pitching help. I love Loney but he can't play anywhere else and Teixeira is in his prime and ready to anchor the dodger lineup for the next 4-5 years or so (too bad the bastared can't play third base...if Teixeira was still playing first with Hank Blalock's bobbling hands at third it's pretty safe to say Teix can't play third). Loney may only have 1 or 2 great years in him with 25-30 homers.

It initially sounds like such a bad idea, but if you really think about it what's so bad about a 15 homerish third baseman with great defense and gets on base? Martin's offense probably gets a boost resulting in Casey Blake numbers plus a higher .obp...Varitek, despite his decline isn't a total slouch at catcher with his 13 homers and could have another bounce back year before he's toast. He's gone from semi-elite to serviceable.

If cozying up to Scott Boras ends up netting Mark Teixeira or trading Andruw Jones for anything of value while not eating more than 20% of his salary, then it was probably more than worth the downgrade at catcher and moving Martin. If it only helps us talk Lowe back into re-signing I'd be pretty torn about it. Netting Oliver Perez in free agency would be quite a nice throw-in.

Anyways, I dislike Scott Boras very much and if I were a GM I would avoid his clients as much as possible. I don't think the dodgers can help Boras out of his client's hole this time. There's just too many teams with good, young catchers to want to sign Varitek so even a false bidding war with leaked dodgers negotiations and offers flooding the hot stove wouldn't work. Varitek is going to have to wait a long time before teams start showing interest. Even the promise of help with other clients can't induce such a bizarre signing with money drying up in the middle of a recession/depression. If I had to guess it'd be the Tigers if he wants to stay in the AL or the Phillies if he goes to the NL. O.K....I predict Phillies.

What I Thought 5 Months Ago and What I Think I Know Now

2008-11-10T13:44:00.000-08:00

I wrote this draft on 6-15-08...everything in ()'s is my 11-10-08 editorial on it:

I've emotionally held onto the ridiculous theory that semi-elite players on big market teams are more likely to be apathetic after they've gotten that big payday they've worked so hard for earlier in their career to earn and then proceed to shut themselves down over every little boo-boo and play more conservatively to prevent injuries.

(Not sure this really applies to Andruw, he just sucked. I think he tried not to suck but it was more mental than physical after a while. In '08 this wasn't true of Schmidt although it was another wasted season. Kent and Nomar spent stretches on the DL but it was more out of age and prior injuries, not being a prima donna).

This belief is not true (not so sure now) although my mind goes there when my team performs badly (but not when the team is on a roll). I guess because it's more convenient than to face the reality that certain players don't perform to their level or the team as a unit seems not to perform well together despite the talent level and price tag of the team assembled (I think this is true still).

Much easier to believe than the theory that no matter how well a team is constructed and how big of a budget your favorite team happens to have to spend, there are just too many variables and too many ways to get hurt in baseball for any particular team to be a sure thing, for any player, much less players, to all be consistent enough at the same time for a fan to ever be happy. I think fans, like the players, must deal with the uncertainties in the game in similar ways. One is to be persistently optimistic in the face of losing streaks and somewhat stoic when the team just keeps winning ball games. The season is a marathon and try not to get too high or too low attitude many ballplayers have. The other way is to demand the impossible from yourself and your teammates. Your team should always win and anything less than that shouldn't be tolerated, blame for the problem should be identified, and corrected as soon as possible.

I guess there might even be an in-between way to deal with this (this idea never panned out into a comprehensible middle ground).

Let's look at that winning Marlins roster. The pitching staff is anchored by 34 year old Mark Hendrickson, former dodger pitching scapegoat. The outfield sports former scapegoat Luis Gonzalez. The team just traded away one of their best young hitters in Miguel Cabrerra for prospects (they also seemed to do pretty well for themselves by trading away the D-Train before he exploded). Despite trading away the young core of their club and signing an over the hill left fielder to be their starter, they're above .500. Who knew? (Who shoulda knew this team couldn't keep it together?)

(Funny, looking back now that totally didn't last)

The Rays, also above .500 are more true to the team via farm system approach. They traded away a bunch of outfielders only to have the they thought was one of the keepers only to have him go to the DL because of a freak dna disorder. They sport a bunch of pitchers that wouldn't crack the dodgers rotation. They chose to go with a "proven" closer in the 38 year old Percival instead of sticking any one of the number of arms they have with the responsibility.

(Not so surprising, the Rays were for real)

But what if these teams don't continue to play above .500? Can you just then give these teams the same old excuse that they have to trade away their talent due to budget restraints and have no chance against the big budget teams? But when big market teams lose it's because they gamble starting jobs and lots of money at a free agents who inevitably fail to perform adequately and tie up the budget so the team cannot get the "better bet" free agents, a.k.a the free agent gambles that end up paying off on other teams. Do you keep the players hungry by not locking them up even though it's more expensive to do so? Do you lock them up and then deal them for extra return on your extra players?

(I still don't know, but I'll keep paying attention to how the Rays do/have done things).

Dodgers Decline Penny's Option

2008-11-05T15:16:00.000-08:00

So I guess his arm really is toast. They bought him out for 2 million. In a league where really crappy pitchers earn a lot of money, you'd figure Brad Penny would be worth 9 million bucks for 2009. Well, the move frees up money to go after C.C. and that Junichi Tazawa guy only to lose out to the Yankees. I predicted they'd pick up the option and trade him but I guess the dodgers didn't see that working out either (maybe his arm is that bad that other teams would balk once they saw medical reports). Penny will be a type B free agent when he files for free agency so the dodgers would get a sandwich pick for him signing elsewhere without having to worry about offering him arbitration.

Wonder what's going on with Peavy? I think I read that he has added more teams he would be willing to be traded to, but when I read it it really wasn't that at all. Padres need to drum up the market and need more teams (or the illusion of it) to do that. I would kind of worry about the angels except that their payroll is already kind of huge.

Not going to follow Manny contract stuff because with Boras, it's going to last until mid-late offseason. I have no desire to go insane a la Dice-K watch and A-Rod's telenovela when he shook down the yankees for additional money.

Back to the Offseason Doings of the Dodgers

2008-10-20T09:04:00.000-07:00

The biggest potential story floating around is the public hawking of pitcher Jake Peavy to the league. They say they want pitching. Check. They say they want middle infielders. double check. Would Peavy accept a trade to L.A.? Triple check. The dodgers have a bunch of middle infield prospects. There's Chin-Lung Hu. There's Tony Abreu. There's Blake DeWitt. There's Ivan DeJesus Jr.. There are some even younger players that are more projects like Don Mattingley's son, Preston.

But the padres also want pitching. Maybe the dodgers sell the padres on Broxton as an excuse to not pay Trevor Hoffman, which would cause the dodgers to come off slightly cheaper. One infielder and a reliever do not a Jake Peavy trade make, however. I think the dodgers would have to balk at Kershaw and Billingsley. Anyone else they have to consider. They'd probably like Elbert. I think they would really like McDonald because of his control type pitching. If they want even younger pitching that's a year or so away the dodgers have Bryan Morris still. The dodgers let so many good young pitchers go. It's a shame. I really liked Hanrahan but the nationals picked him up as a minor league free agent. The dodgers need to be a bit more aggresive in promoting pitching prospects so that pitchers aren't defecting because they feel the dodgers will never give them a chance on the big club.

I'd be very curious to see the padres scouting report on Hong-Chi Kuo. He doesn't count as young pitching, but the padres are the type of team that would take him and put him right into the starting rotation and ride him out. He's off and on as a starter (like any other starter) but he was mostly dominant as a reliever. He's still cheap, but not under control for as long as the pads probably would like. Still, he's ready to pitch now and with the team exploding, he's a good stopgap type of pitcher to have. Maybe they'd take him, but that still wouldn't be enough.

There's a few wildcards that may come into the mix. Padres still need a center fielder. They may take Pierre for two years as long as he's paid for, lowering the amount of prospects they net. Pierre isn't the type of guy the padres would like, but when you're blowing up the team, you just want a cheap, warm body that plays everyday. Pierre meets those requirements. Brad Penny might also be someone they could take on to keep fans happy as long as the dodgers pay most of his salary. I think they'd take Penny before Pierre. Penny at least has name recognition and the team line could be that the padres got a good starting pitcher plus 2 more pitching prospects and a new shortstop all in one fell swoop. Blow up team while still seeming to improve team.

My head is spinning with all the possibilities. I really don't know what will happen. Probably somebody I didn't take seriously enough to mention gets dealt. I'll scratch my head and stuff and then a few minutes later kinda sorta figure it out. I'm pretty sure about one thing though. Padres won't trade him to the braves. The braves aren't going to trade Jurjens. Peavy doesn't help the braves enough in the short term to make them a winner. The braves don't have enough good infielders to be trading them away.

Puck wasn't sure last night if she could cheer when Aybar hit that homer. She loved him as a 51 when he was in Vegas, before all of his personal problems began.

Doh :/

2008-10-19T20:41:00.000-07:00

I didn't think it would go down like that. I really thought their momentum would pull them through. I believed enough that I made light of the rays needing a chance to go to their first world series as a franchise. Garza was on. So was Lester. It was just a game of the fewest mistake pitches capitalized on by the other team.

Bud Selig cannot be happy with this matchup from a ratings standpoint.

Sorry, Biz

Imagining Chris Rock Joking About the Sox Rays Series

2008-10-19T13:44:00.000-07:00

Don't the red sox have enough rings already? Can't ya let the Rays get a little taste, just a little lick at their first world series win!? If the yankees are about to go through their 5-10 year sucky streak because their guys are just too damn old now; You've got Jeter--he old! You've got caveman Johnny Damon--he old! They had Roger Clemens just last year--He was pitching when Reagan was in office--He old! And a damned liar! The yankees are done for awhile. It's like when Tyson retired. You know his ass is going to come back someday, but you gotta entertain yourself in the meantime until he can get his act together enough to challenge you again.

If anything you're going to need to lose just to make the rivalry a little dramatic, right? You gotta trade a few guys down there to add some flavor to the new rival in the AL east, right? Maybe they'll sign Derek Lowe or something to make it interesting. At the very least you can give 'em some Coco! You don't need him!

I'm still rooting for the sox. But if the yankees are really done as an organization for 5 years or so, nothing would get red sox nation into overdrive then to lose in 7 to the rays. Heads would roll. It just underscores that the real world series happens in the ALCS rather than the actual world series title...and that the division is a lot less exciting when the yankees are down and out.

Go Sox

I Left Them For Bed in the 7'th

2008-10-17T07:08:00.000-07:00

I thought they were done. I left them for dead. I went to bed on them assured their season was done just like my team. Boy, was I wrong! The red sox scored a ton of runs, it hurts me to say that the J.D. Drew's stoic ass was clutch. Rays need to watch out now. The red sox may still end up losing, but at least they showed some fight.

What I'll Remember Most About the End of the Season

2008-10-16T11:39:00.000-07:00

is Jeff Kent striking out looking and arguing about it. If it was anyone else they'd have been tossed. It just exemplifies the kind of guy he is. He struck out twice. He struck out in a key situation with two runners on. He struck out looking. He had the situation in front of him that he always talks about, but he didn't produce. In the past Kent always had someone to blame for the team's failures, and it was never himself. It was younger players, or it was Milton Bradley, but never Kent. Now with failure seen right in the catcher's mitt we see the real Jeff Kent. Instead of professionally walking back to the dugout to beat himself up about it, he gave the ump an earful and threw down some equipment. If that's not ugly enough, come to find out in the paper that he just ditched the team once he found he was taken out of the game in a double switch. The game he talks versus what he does when things get hard is why I loathe Jeff Kent as a ball player. He's probably an o.k. guy, but that's not why I watch and follow the dodgers. It's the end of an era, the Jeff Kent era. I'm glad they won, but I'm also glad that's over.

Go Sox!

I'm Sure We're Both In Disbelief

2008-10-14T07:48:00.001-07:00

Your team lost. My team lost. Our teams both lost at home. Your team is now a bit bad off. My team's fate balances upon the edge of a blade, stray but a little and it will fail. At least you had the sweet mercy of not even getting to believe for a moment your team really had a chance. My team let the lead slip two times by bad, bad, bad, bad, bad, bullpen usage...

Home runs given up by relievers killed us. I was queasy when Torre brought in Cory Wade. I commented to Puck that, 'he's worked the last three games in mostly multiple innings...he's getting the Scott Proctor treatment and he's not going to be effective'.

Looks to be a rays phillies world series. How ugly does that sound?