Marginal Utility

Dear Mad, You and Danny Don't Exist.

2008-07-03T12:32:00.003-05:00

Via Roy, I discover that the San Francisco of Victor David Hanson's, er, mind consists of:

smartly dressed yuppies, wealthy gays... What is missing are school children, middle class couples with strollers, and any sense the city has a vibrant foundation of working-class, successful families of all races and backgrounds...

My wife's relatives work in San Francisco and live in Albany, but they're doctors and lawyers. (Though—sorry, Julie, Howard, and Mike—not many would confuse most of them with being "smartly dressed" in the VDH sense of the phrase.)

So I guess Mad at EoB doesn't exist, since VDH's SF "reminds [him] of H.G.l Wels Eloi and Morlocks," and I've never seen her wear as much eye shadow as Yvette Mimieux in this film (though it's possible that Sarcasm Girl can stay).

More Proof Bud Selig is an Idiot

2008-06-29T10:14:00.000-05:00

As if any more were needed.

Finally, an Obama bumper sticker I can support

2008-06-27T10:39:00.003-05:00

Via Bitch (whose site really needs an RSS feed), an Obama bumper sticker that is realistic and positive.

Buy it here; contributions go to Tom's favorite candidate.

Angelica Sings!

2008-06-26T12:40:00.001-05:00

For those unfamiliar with Battlepanda, here's an atypical introduction.

All You Zombies...

2008-06-23T15:54:00.005-05:00

They are heavily discussed at EoB. (Most recently here.) Now, Zombies have made it into The Economists' [sic] Voice:

The problem with this assumption is that there is a significant amount of spam that is currently being sent via "zombie" computers...Should the owners of these zombie bots then be made liable for their contribution to the worldwide spam problem?

Sounds like a good idea. But YOU may be (running) a Zombie:

Perhaps, the responsibility of maintaining a sound firewall lies on the owner of the machine. But, even if we do make the owner legally liable, what good would it do? The subtleties of security technology lie beyond the average user of the Internet.[emphasis mine]

I think I prefer Steve's version.

Lim, Jamus Jerome (2008) "Letter: Zombies May Mean Attention Bonds Will Not Cure Spam," The Economists' Voice: Vol. 5 : Iss. 2, Article 5. Available at: http://www.bepress.com/ev/vol5/iss2/art5

Flashing Back to the 1930s

2008-06-21T18:52:00.002-05:00

Via Mochi-tsuki, as I gradually return to life between multi-day medical tests.

I got an 8. Surely someone can do better.

As a 1930s husband, I am
Very Poor (Failure)

Take the test!

Defining "uprooted"

2008-06-11T13:16:00.002-05:00

It rained and stormed a bit yesterday.

After speaking with my insurance company, I am told the following:

This is considered an "Act of G-d" (clearly, the OT version of same)
Since the damage is almost all on my neighbor's property (their fence, their swing set, their garage), it's not covered under my policy.
Since my policy doesn't cover "land," that big mud puddle that used to have a tree in it is also not covered.
Since it's an AoG, there is no point in filing a "liability claim" to cover damage to my neighbor's property.

We're inclined to believe that my neighbor's insurance company will agree with this assessment.

I suspect many homeowners are about to find out that their insurance policy does not do all that they thought it would.

(Cross-posted from Angry Bear)

Ruining Our Reputation as a Family Blog

2008-06-10T18:36:00.003-05:00

Spam e-mail heading that is wrong on so many levels: "Downloadable porno DVD's for free"

My Windows machine certainly doesn't have the capability of downloading DVDs. Maybe it's something to do with that new IPhone 2.0?

By the way, I can now say that a GPS allows you to drive around in a city as if you were a native. Except for those times when it waits until you're two car-lengths from the left turn and in the far right lane, at which point you just have to remember that having New Jersey plates is good for something.

Hiatusville

2008-06-10T16:04:00.002-05:00

This should be no surprise to regular visitors, but my work and non-work activities preclude contributing to more than one blog at a time. So please come on over to Angry Bear if you don't already do so; I'm trying to post more-or-less regularly over there (see here, here, and here for recent offerings).

To combat link-rot, if nothing else, this site isn't going anywhere, and pictures of the kids will occasionally appear on my Flickr page. Have a great summer!

Making a Non-Issue into a Problem

2008-06-01T16:34:00.003-05:00

(The Other Jim[my]) Webb? Nunn?

I've said consistently that the only VP candidate who will cause my absentee ballot to be lost is Sibelius, but I had assumed that the Democratic leadership was sane. (All right, SonOfaBirch could make me lose the ballot, too, but that's because at that point I would assume their goal was to lose as many states as possible.)

When the Republicans had an of-age deserter as their candidate, they paired him with—an of-age evader.

Why would anyone pretend that a younger-than-the-draft candidate needs a 70-year-old former Coast Guard Reservist to shore up his bona fides against a 72-year-old who advocates for perpetual war?

The Canadian Rock - Science Fiction Connection

2008-05-28T12:08:00.002-05:00

Many years ago, before many of you were born, there were two guys from Winnipeg named Randy Bachman and Fred Turner.

They wanted a name for their band, and with all of the folk-rocky duets of the time (Seals & Crofts, Loggins & Messina, etc.), they weren't about to be Bachman & Turner, since they played loud. (Or, perhaps, loudly, if we're leaving off the presumption of "music.")

So they were in a drug store or something one day and saw a magazine about Trucks. BIG Trucks. LOUD trucks.

The magazine was called Overdrive, and a band name that will live in infamy was born.

The current editor of Overdrive magazine, per the introduction to his story in Wizards, is Andy Duncan.

Just thought you might want to know.

Finally, an Obama-supporter reason I wholeheartedly endorse

2008-05-27T16:07:00.003-05:00

Dr. Black has a Deep Thought to make his television work better.

Meanwhile, Mark Thoma makes an endorsement that should be obvious.

Those Evil Venezuelans

2008-05-26T18:15:00.004-05:00

Don't let anyone ever again tell you that Conservatives support "free trade":

London’s Tory mayor, Boris Johnson, today announced that he was scrapping a discounted oil agreement with Venezuela that provides half price bus fares for London ’s poorest citizens. Fares for those on Income Support are expected to double by the end of year, causing serious financial hardship for 80,000 Londoners who had taken advantage of the scheme....

The agreement, which was negotiated by Johnson’s predecessor, Ken Livingstone, bartered London's strategic advice on city planning for cheap Venezuelan oil.

This is precisely the type of agreement you want to make in free trade: rent out your expertise (a non-rival, public good) for a discount on a commodity that allows you to raise the marginal utility to your population of its government services.

Which is also what Venezuela has been doing with its oil revenues:

Venezuela’s socialist president, Hugo Chavez, has used the proceeds from record oil revenues to roll out free health and education services across the country. Incomes for the poorest 60% of Venezuelans have risen by 130% in real terms, according to surveys conducted for the Venezuelan American Chamber of Commerce.

Now you can argue, as some are prone to do, that making life marginally easier for the poorer members of your society is not a path to growth. But that's an entirely different argument than "we should charge our poorest members of society more."

Isn't it?

Columbia College Class of 1983 member accepts Vice Presidency

2008-05-26T12:45:00.003-05:00

No, not that one.

This one.

Jesse Walker (h/t Jim Henley), who can rationalize that Bob Barr was a good choice, is not happy:

But given the number of party activists who are wary of the former congressman, and given Barr's deficiencies on several issues, it would have made sense to round off the ticket with a more hardcore libertarian....Instead the delegates opted for another member of the party's conservative wing. Worse yet, the conservative they picked was Wayne Allyn Root, a man with the deportment of a Ronco pitchman with a squirrel in his pants.

They must think they're the Republican Party of eight years ago.

Why I Don't Believe People Have all of the Information about their Diets

2008-05-25T19:57:00.001-05:00

Economic Logic always makes a point arguing that externalities should be taxed. (See, for instance, here.) The counterargument, of course, is that if you're going to try to discourage behavior, people have to know what behavior you are trying to discourage before they can stop it.

For instance, if you don't know the full calorie count of that Combo—10-piece Chicken McNuggets (420), Medium French Fries (380), Medium Coca-Cola(r) (210); total 1,010 calories, or more than half the calories of a "normal" (2,000 calorie) diet—the decision you make cannot be considered rational.

And how do we know that people don't have full information? Well, we know when divinecaroline (h/t Avram at Making Light) realizes that it's still necessary to publish an article such as Five Foods That Cause Anal Leakage.

How to Devalue Your Brand

2008-05-20T17:39:00.007-05:00

Greg Mankiw, clearly distracted by his former collaborator's wife having been denied a tenured position at Harvard, quotes Fred Bergsten in the WSJ, Instapundit-style:

By effectively killing "fast track" procedures that guarantee a yes-or-no vote on trade agreements within 90 days, lawmakers in Washington, led by House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, have destroyed the credibility of the U.S. as a reliable negotiating partner.

Which leads to the obvious conclusion: Republicans "destroyed the credibility of the U.S. in 1998 when they did the same thing to President Clinton.

Strangely, Greg Mankiw (Fortune, January 12, 1998) "knew better."

Policy and politics diverged again in the fast-track debate. Clinton was asking Congress for something all recent Presidents have had--the authority to negotiate trade deals that Congress would consider without amendment. This power is crucial if the President is to continue the multilateral process that over the past half-century has moved the world toward freer trade and greater prosperity.

Although economists are united in support of free trade, opinion polls show the American public is more skeptical. The public's view is partly based on the false analogy that trade is like war--some countries must lose for others to win....

Because of the public's ambivalence--and the opposition of interest groups that fear foreign competition--fast track went down to defeat. This may put an end to the multilateral approach to opening up world trade. But it need not mean an end to the free-trade movement.*

Got it? If it's a Democratic Congress, then Pelosi is a "problem." If it's a Republican Congress doing the same thing, it's Through No Fault of Their Own.

And by not pointing out that he himself used to know better, Greg Mankiw destroys not Fred Bergsten's credibility, but his own.

Cross-posted to AngryBear, where Tom is on a roll.

UPDATE: Dani Rodrik gives the lie to the whole line of "reasoning.")

*Yes, I omitted Mankiw's framing issue (tomatoes), but if he really wants to claim George W. "Steel Tariffs" Bush was different, the only possible response is "Bring it on."

PSA: APL back to Active status

2008-05-18T13:54:00.003-05:00

Angry Pregnant Lawyer has returned to blogging (semi-)regularly.

Lots of posts about clipping coupons and other recession-fighting techniques (recession-talk seems to be a trend now), none of which discuss opportunity costs or retail loyalty cards.

Not that that's a bad thing.

One Great Thing about Blogging

2008-05-18T13:41:00.004-05:00

This has been said better than I, ad nauseam, by others but it always bears repeating: blogs prove to people that You Are Not Alone.

Case in Point: Ann Wilmer's blog Cake for Breakfast, in which she talks about caring for her mother, who is in the later stages of her life, and Alzheimer's.

I too wish she had started the blog sooner, but the elegiac ending—not to mention the notes on sources for help with Alzheimer's and, especially, for information on how to get help keeping parents at home with you—are not to be missed.

Hillary Jumps the Shark?

2008-05-16T14:52:00.002-05:00

As per the desires of the world, she attacks McCain without mentioning Obama:

"I believe saying no to the farm bill is saying no to rural America."

Bush and McCain both say the bill, which boosts farm subsidies and includes more money for food stamps, is fiscally irresponsible and too generous to wealthy corporate farmers.

"When Bear Stearns needed assistance, we stepped in with a $30 billion package. But when our farmers need help, all they get from Senator McCain and President Bush is a veto threat," Clinton said.

The $30 billion didn't help Bear Stearns (ask most of my former coworkers); it guarantees that the market remains stable while the Great Sucking Sound that is Bear fades.

And this is over the farm bill? The "Disgraceful" farm bill?

The bill includes the usual favors like the tax break for racehorse breeders pushed by Mitch McConnell of Kentucky, the Senate minority leader. But the greater and more embarrassing defect is that the bill perpetuates the old subsidies for agriculture at a time when the prices that farmers are getting for big row crops like corn, soybeans and wheat have never been better. Net farm income is up 50 percent [56% in the past two years, per the WSJ&,mdash;though it is on the Editorial page, and therefore needs a to be taken with a five-pound bag of salt].

The legislation preserves an indefensible program of direct payments amounting to about $5 billion a year that flow in good times and bad. It raises support levels for wheat and soybeans, while adding several new crops to the list in a way that will make it easier for farmers to raid the federal Treasury even when prices go up.

And this is, to be certain, a farm bill that targets the richest of the rich. From the WSJ:

A bigger scam is the new income limit to qualify for subsidies. Mr. Bush sought a $200,000 annual income cap, but Congress can't bring itself to go below $750,000. Even that is a farce, because it doesn't include loan programs and disaster payments, and it allows spouses to qualify for payments too. The White House and liberal reformers calculate that farm owners with clever accountants can have incomes of up to $2.5 million and still get a taxpayer handout.

I know Senior Managing Directors at Bear Stearns who didn't make $750K a year, let alone $2.5 million.

It's a good thing we have Barack Obama to speak against the bill, and for the "little people" who have financed his "grass roots" campaign.

Huh? Oh, wait.

"I applaud the Senate's passage today of the Farm Bill, which will provide America's hard-working farmers and ranchers with more support and more predictability."

"The bill places greater resources into renewable energy and conservation. And, during this time of rising food prices, the Farm Bill provides an additional $10 billion for critical nutrition programs. I am also pleased that the bill includes my proposal to help thousands of African-American farmers get their discrimination claims reviewed under the Pigford settlement."

(in best Emily Litella voice) Never mind.

Long-Term Housing

2008-05-14T13:41:00.009-05:00

I haven't done any hard searching yet, but after some desultory searching at Zipskinny, one thing stood out.

I was checking, basically, ZIP codes in which I've lived (19119, 47331, 07040, etc.).

At a glance, you can tell that the middle one above is from the Midwest and the other two are East Coast. And, as David Brooks tells me, the soul of the Earth is different. More stable.

So here's my attempt at making a table:

ZIP Codes	City and State	Stability (same home 5+ years)
06880	Westport, CT	64.0%
19119	Philadelphia, PA	62.4%
44116	Rocky River, OH	61.0%
07040	Maplewood, NJ	60.0%
45385	Xenia, OH	58.8%
47331	Connersville, IN	57.5%
46544	Mishiwaka, IN	56.7%
43230	Gahanna, OH	50.4%
94706	Albany, CA	50.1%

Need to work on those border lines. (UPDATE: Ah, so they just don't show in Preview mode. No idea about all that white space, though.)

Judging by the data—which, as noted is a semi-random sample: ZIP codes in which I've lived, ZIP codes where relatives live, a Place of Legend* to which some old friends moved recently (Westport), and three Ohio cities that are suburbs of Cincinnati (Xenia), Columbus (Gahanna), and Cleveland (Rocky River; h/t Erin for that one being chosen)—it appears that most of those nice, stable Midwestern towns are less stable than the East Coast Dens of Iniquity.

I'll be waiting for David Brooks to apologize for every column he's written in the past eight years. Expect that will happen about the time he accepts one of those offers to actually provide accurate statistical analysis to him.

*Fortunately, since this is a family blog, the phrase "doing Westport" is not defined at The Usual Sources.

It took 11 Hours for Someone to Point out the Obvious

2008-05-12T21:34:00.003-05:00

Is Zubin Jelveh one of the economists advising Hillary Clinton, or was Tyler Cowen just giving him a pass?

If you're a married woman living in the New York City area, there's a better than 50 percent chance that you don't work, according to a recent analysis of Census data by economists affiliated with the St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank.

More specifically, only 49 percent of white high school-educated married women in their prime working ages were holding down jobs in the New York area as of the 2000 Census.

It was not until 6:04p.m.—eleven hours later—that "Cardinal Fang" noted:

What, so now only white women count as women?

Posted by: Cardinal Fang at May 9, 2008 6:04:19 PM

while Andrew Samwick perpetuates the meme.

I would have hoped that Felix would apologize that one of Portfolio's reporters swallowed this one whole, but it's been three days.

NOW I Can Use the R-Word

2008-05-12T19:23:00.002-05:00

Surely a hedge fund specializing in "adult industry investments" is either a sign of a recession or a sign of the Apocalypse.

(I'll be contemplating this at youporn.com [h/t Erin] for the rest of the day.*)

*Actually, I won't, and not just because I'm on a public computer. Too much Really Cool Stuff to read (all links gated; if anyone can find free links, e-mail me or post them in comments).

I Should Never Need to write about the idiocy of Economists talking about the Evils of the Minimum Wage Again

2008-05-11T17:10:00.003-05:00

Thank you, Kathy G, guesting at Crooked Timber.

Now, if only she would point out the spillover effects of rent control.

Waiting for Stephy

2008-05-11T14:55:00.003-05:00

During all the "gas tax holiday" contretemps last week, I kept asking if Obama had any plan, other than to sit there and let Johnny Mac run as a "populist."

The two responses were "Well, Obama said that the cut enacted in the Illinois legislature, of which about 60% went to consumer, did nothing to help the consumer" and "He wants to stop putting oil into the Strategic Petroleum Reserve."

I leave explaining the first to The Mendacity-Finding Duo of Greg Mankiw and Brad DeLong.

For the second, however, we now see (via Some Assembly Required), we find that stopping putting oil in the SPR is expected to do even less than the gas tax cut.

Waiting patiently for Stephanopoulos to ask Obama about that. (At least his response probably won't have all the economists in the blogsphere whining.)

Blogging Update

2008-05-11T07:21:00.000-05:00

In the off chance you were wondering why things are quiet here, it's because I've been blogging at the venerable Angry Bear for the last week — and expect to continue to do so until my co-bloggers take away the virtual keys. While I'd like to say that won't change things around here, a finite amount of time for blogging does mean that this site will be less frequently updated (by me) and focus more on matters of personal and/or local interest.

Meanwhile, if you haven't done so, please check out the week's activity at AB:

Defending, in part, the Consumer Price Index
On Chrysler's latest sales gimmick, extending fuel price hedging to the masses?
Looking at the link (or lack thereof) between tax policies and the housing bubble
Taking a whack at the Shadow Government Statistics alternative GDP series
Refereeing "Jane Galt"'s efforts to debunk Harvard bankruptcy expert Elizabeth Warren on the plight of the middle class
Finding new meanings of the term "bracket creep" on the Wall Street Journal's op-ed pages.