tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7965585998403674176.post-18677377797829488212008-05-05T23:08:00.005-04:002008-05-08T18:31:05.798-04:00I spend a good deal of time on this site looking at odds, and trying to determine whether they're worth betting on or not. Sometimes this is pretty difficult, trying to incorporate all kinds of different factors, and make necessary adjustments.<br /><br />Sometimes it's really, really easy.<br /><br />The Greek has posted odds on the NBA Draft lottery. No, not the NBA Draft- the <span style="font-style: italic;">lottery</span>. Like, which ping pong ball will pop up. It's not very hard to figure out what these odds should be-the chances for each team are listed <a href="http://www.realgm.com/src_lottosim.php">here</a>.<br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="http://bp1.blogger.com/_Xtn5bp8dZEg/SCN-YpACGAI/AAAAAAAABag/r0_jTY-LpQs/s1600-h/draftlottery.bmp"><img style="margin: 0px auto 10px; display: block; text-align: center; cursor: pointer;" src="http://bp1.blogger.com/_Xtn5bp8dZEg/SCN-YpACGAI/AAAAAAAABag/r0_jTY-LpQs/s400/draftlottery.bmp" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5198137356703635458" border="0" /></a>If you bet on these, you have a problem.<br /><br />Shockingly, there is no value in these. It'd be pretty amusing if there was- if the oddsmakers screwed up and put the Heat at +1750 or something. Alas, no.<br /><br />Unless...remember <a href="http://sports.aol.com/fanhouse/2007/04/19/bill-simmons-1985-draft-lottery-conspiracy-theories/">this</a>? For anyone who throws these conspiracy theories around, this is your time. Oh, Stern is going to give the Knicks Beasley to get their franchise back on track? Okay, then put $300 down on them at +800.<br /><br />What would be really funny would be if any of these odds changed. We'd have to assume that someone maxed them out, and The Greek didn't want to put themselves at too much risk on a silly prop. I'd like to interview anyone who actually bets significant money on these, and figure out what their reasoning is.Vegas Watchhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02353166004125421683noreply@blogger.com