tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7680263095949557836.post-35777477912057799592008-03-11T10:30:00.003Z2008-03-11T16:31:54.288Z<span class="postbody">So how can Hillary win? These are the scenarios I can think of in order of best outcome to worst. </span><ul><li><span class="postbody"> She can win more pledged delegates. Based on current polling that path will close on the May 20th primaries in Oregon and Kentucky. </span></li><li><span class="postbody"> Next up is Obama implodes ala Vitter, Craig or Spitzer. This is what super delegates are for. </span></li><li><span class="postbody"> Now we're in dodgy territory. This is the "will of the voters" argument. Popular votes, primary votes and primary popular votes. In addition to this being a hard argument to sell, the numbers don't back it up. </span></li><li><span class="postbody"> An even worse variation on "the will of the voters" is only counting voters if they live in big states or in blue states. Discounting voters based on ideology or geography. </span></li><li><span class="postbody"> Lastly there's super delegate arm twisting. </span></li></ul><span class="postbody"> The downside is that in addition to being in the order of best to worst outcomes, they're also in order from least to most plausible. Clinton is working to win this cycle - not to be veep and not to run again in 2012 (she'll never win a caucus again). So the Clinton campaign is actively pursuing all of these strategies. <span style="font-weight: bold;">Update:</span> <a href="http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/3/11/8502/52487">Another take on this.</a> </span>Jabberhawkiehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12596438879408721606noreply@blogger.com