From the Desk of the Poker Philosopher

Why is this old blog showing up?

2009-10-17T23:23:00.003-05:00

I'm not sure, and I'm working on fixing it. Until I do, you can find the current From the Desk of the Poker Philosopher at http://www.thinkingpoker.net/blog/ (ie the same address but with a lower-case "b" in the "blog" part). Thanks for your patience!

Andrew

The Blog, It Is A-Changin'

2009-07-03T00:51:00.003-05:00

My girlfriend's been working tremendously hard on a redesign of the Thinking Poker blog/website, and it's going to be going live tomorrow. By the time many of you read this post, it may be live already, in which case, don't panic- you're still in the right place!

If you happen to read this before the changeover, know that there could be some downtime/technical difficulty as we transition from Blogger to Wordpress. Hopefully there won't be any, but in any event, it will be well worth it. The new site design is amazing and about 1000 times better than this crap you've been looking at for the past 6 months.

Oh, and I'm playing the main event tomorrow, so remember to follow me at http://twitter.com/thinkingpoker. I'll keep you posted on my steadily rising chip count and all of the hopeless triple barrels I'm too disciplined to attempt. Positive thinking!

Guy Accidentally Busts Me

2009-07-01T18:28:00.002-05:00

We're about 3.5 hours into a 1K multi-table satellite for the WSOP main event. Blinds are 300/600/75. Short stack moves all in for 3600. Button doesn't realize there's someone all in ahead of him and says "call", planning to call just the blinds. I have 99 in the BB and a little under 10K in chips. I shoved, Button called with JQ. Short stack has 66 and Button ends up busting us both with a hand he didn't even mean to play.

I wonder if my better play isn't to call and shove any flop. I kind of doubt that Button was open limping any pocket pairs, so there's not much danger of chasing out the hands against which I have the best equity. He was pretty LAGgy though, so I wouldn't be surprised if he would play something like 87s or some other hand I've got in bad shape the same way. It might not matter too much in the grand scheme of things, but it probably would have won me this pot.

Ten-Twenty-Five Live

2009-07-01T09:59:00.003-05:00

I played about two hours of 10-25 NL at the Rio yesterday. The table wasn't full of spewmonkeys but I wasn't anticipating a lot of tough decisions. Mostly it was just a boring game. I say that, but I did actually bluff my entire $5K stack on my first hand.

Let me tell you another story first though. There was this wealthy Texan at the table who, when I first sat down, was on the phone placing sports bets. That's always a good sign. I later changed seats and ended up with him on my immediate left, meaning I was privy to the next two phone calls he made.

The first was to a woman named "Becky" whom he seemed to select somewhat arbitrarily from his address book. He hadn't seen her in a few months but turns out she was available for dinner on a few hours' notice.

His next call was a voicemail that I'll attempt to transcribe to the best of my memory: "Hey Jimmy, this is Dicky. Happy 20th birthday. That's a bit one. I'm sorry I won't be able to make it for your party tonight, I'm going to be tied up. I've got a little present for you, though- it's $50- you're mother will have that for you. You're growing into a fine young man. Hope you have fun."

Anyway, that big bluff I was talking about: I opened to $75 with AKs in late middle position and got 3-bet to $300 by a familiar-looking player on the button. I couldn't place where I'd seen him before, but he was young and serious-looking, which isn't a good sign. I assumed he was an internet pro whose face I'd randomly seen in a picture or something, but now that I think about it, I may actually have played with him at Foxwoods. It makes a huge difference which he is, but at the time, I was thinking internet, so anyway...

He 3-bets to $300, and I decided to make it $800 and fold to a 4-bet (he had me covered). He thinks for a while and calls. The flop comes down rags with two of my suit. I bet $1200, planning to unhappily call a shove. My hope was that he would just call and then I could shove the turn. That's exactly what happened. He tanked for a while but folded what was probably TT-QQ. I doubt anyone else at the table would make that fold, but then I wouldn't have 4-bet anyone else either.

So I made $2000 on my first hand, but I later misplayed a hand pretty badly and cost myself most of that profit. A new player had just joined the table, an older black man who seemed to be a regular in the Tunica games. He bought in deep enough to cover my nearly $7K stack.

I got AKs UTG+1 and raised to $75. Only the new guy called out of his BB. The flop came 862 and gave me my flush draw. He checked, I bet $125, and he raised to $400. I called. The turn was an off-suit 3, he checked, I bet $525, and he raised to $2000. I folded.

My turn bet is just atrocious. With less showdown value, it might be OK, like if I had a ten-high flush draw or something. But even then, I'm primarily relying on bluffing him off of bluffs, which assumes he's capable of check-raise bluffing the flop against an unknown early position raiser. With AK, I beat his bluffs anyway, so there's little value in betting and risking getting blown off a strong draw.

I ended up nearly dead even on the session and didn't play any other interesting pots.

WSOP $5K 6-Max

2009-06-30T14:45:00.003-05:00

It was down to the wire whether I was going to play this, but I managed to cash my check about 10 minutes before the start of the tournament. I ran down to the registration and found a line out the door. It was moving quickly, though, and I managed to register and get to the table at 12:04. The tournament was actually late getting started, so I hadn't missed anything. In fact, I was the first one there. Apparently we were in an overflow room they'd just opened up.

The next player to arrive was a guy I instantly recognized as Shaun Deeb. Two European guys, at least one of whom seemed to be an aggro Scandi, gave us the four we needed to start.

While we were still 4-handed, blinds 50/100, Scandi opens for 250 UTG and Shaun makes it 700 on the button. I find AK in the SB and 4-bet to 2400 planning to puke if Shaun shoves. They both folded quickly, but still, you know it's a tough table when you're cold 4-betting in your second orbit.

Things got a bit better when an older guy joined and started limping into pots. Early on, he open limped his button vs my BB, Shaun folded, and I checked with A4o. The flop came A34, I checked, he bet 150, and I raised 550. He called. The turn brought a 2, not ideal, but it's not real likely he has a 5. I bet 800, and he folded.

Next orbit, limpy old guy limps in for 100, Shaun calls 100, I make it 550 with T9o on the CO. Old guy calls, Shaun folds. The flop comes KQJ. Guy checks, I bet 1000, he raises to 3000. Against a better player, I'd probably just shove now, but live fish don't work like that. They don't think as much as they should about their stack size relative to the pot, but they do get scared by all in bets. So I raise to 7400, he shoves, I call, he has AT. I don't draw out to the chop, so I'm busted within half an hour. Fun.

Imperial Palace Elevator Conversation

2009-06-30T11:09:00.003-05:00

For some reason, people in Vegas talk to strangers on the elevator, which is a total 180 from common elevator behavior anywhere else in the world. I think it has something to do with the general mood of the place combined with how crowded the elevators often are.

Usually it's just some lame joke about the crowds or something, but today, while I was waiting for the elevator at the luxurious Imperial Palace when a skinny man who looked to be in his early fifties walked over and pressed the button as well. "Mmm mmm mmm," he groaned, shaking his head at me in frustration.

There are about a million reasons why someone might be feeling that way in Vegas, so I just pursed my lips and snorted sympathetically.

"This my last trip with that woman," he told me. "We get home, I'm gettin' a divorce."

"Sorry to hear that."

"Mmm hmmm. She outta her goddamn mind. I mean she seriously crazy."

"Vegas can bring out the worst in people."

"Naw, man, this been goin' on. 53 years old and she a muthafuckin' streetwalkin' whore."

I sighed along with him as we boarded the elevator, then asked which floor he was going to. He told me, and I pressed the buttons for both of us.

"Up till now, you know, it was workin' out alright for me, but I can't take this shit no more. She is muthafuckin' nuts."

"A lot of them are."

He smiled a bit and laughed for the first time. "You got right, man."

My stop was first. "Best of luck to you," I told him.

"Alright, alright, I appreciate that. You too now," he answered as the doors closed behind me.

Hilarious 1K Single Table Satellite

2009-06-30T01:18:00.002-05:00

Most of the money I brought to Vegas came in the form of a cashier's check, which apparently needs to be verified by the bank before I can cash it, so I'm pretty much broke until tomorrow. What else to do than play a 1K Single Table Satellite for the WSOP, then? Those are always a hoot.

The table looks perfect: one wannabe hotshot guy about my age, one middle-aged Israeli, 7 middle-aged white guys. A few of them are talking about having played 10-20 tournaments in the series, but they all suck. The two slightly less terrible guys are on my immediate left, but whatever.

I don't play a hand for the first hour, they are all splashing around a little bit but no one's playing big pots. Blinds 100/200, I have a little less than the 4K starting stack. Action folds to me in SB with hotshot in the big. I open limp, he raises to 825, I shove, he moans and groans and tells me how tight I've been, eventually folding an Ace face up like it's the greatest play ever. I casually show him a deuce, and the table goes wild.

Next orbit folds to me in the small, I open to 1200 with TT, hotshot shoves A9, my hand holds up and he's crippled.

Next orbit it's 150/300 he shoves for 1100 UTG action folds to dude in SB who calls. I shove in 8K with KJ on my BB, SB folds and says he had 76s. I get there vs. 55 to eliminate hotshot in 10th.

Button makes a small raise, I shove JJ in SB, Isreali goes on and on about he has the best hand but he's gonna be conservative and folds 66 face up. I show my JJ cuz now I want some fold equity on my shoves.

We play for a while, nothing much happens, eventually Israeli is getting sort. At 300/600, he shoves from early position for 3600. Action folds to me in the BB and I actually have a bit of a decision with AT. He seems to "get it" a little more than the others and recently lost a pot so I call. He has A6 but hits his 6 on the turn. Board is TT76 so I've got 8 outs on river but can't get there. I pass him his chips with no whining/fanfare.

This pot constitutes about 20% of the chips in play, but I'm still the chipleader even after losing it. I make a small CO raise with 99, SB shoves, naturally I call, but he has AQ and wins the flip.

Now I'm short, and a few hands later I shove 43s for 5x or so. Israeli goes on and on about he's gonna play to win and shoves over the top with KJo in the CO. He's ahead unimproved through the turn, then I bang a 3 on the river and he gets pissed, even though I'm in way better shape than he was with A6 and it's a smaller pot. I don't say a word, and eventually a few of his buddies come over and he recounts the story for them about the guy who goes all in with 4-high. I just shake my head.

Some other crap happened, I won some pots with pre-flop raises/shoves (and pots were tremendous at this point), I lost another flip to the Israeli, my AKs loses to 55, and then blinds are 600/1200. Israeli opens to 3000, guy to his left shoves 6400 total, Israel thinks for a while, which is funny in its own right, and finally folds!

There was also a hand, not involving Isreali, where the Button shoves for like 4BB, the SB reshoves 6BB, and the BB folds AQ face-up.

Action folds to me on Button, I shove 7BB or so with K9, Israeli wakes up with JJ in SB and holds up. Now I've got 1800 total, so there's no such thing as fold equity. I fold 73 and 72, and then I post the BB for 2/3 of my stack. CO shoves, I call blind, he flips K7, I have 74. Lovely. His hand holds, and I go out in 6th.

Focking Marcel Luske

2009-06-29T04:20:00.004-05:00

Edit: As I was drifting off to sleep last night, it occurred to me that I should have titled this post "Loosey Luske". In my defense, it was 3AM and I'd been playing Stud/8 for 8 hours, so my creative juices were a bit stymied.

Early in level 7, the Flying Dutchman joins our table, upside-down sunglasses and all. Almost immediately, he takes half my stack.

Action folds to me in middle position. I've got 8(72), hardly a premium hand, but there's nothing but junk behind me: two Queens, Marcel with a Jack, and an 8 on the bring-in. I raise, Marcel calls with the J, everyone else folds.

On 4th, I catch an A, Marcel catches a 4. I bet, he calls. Odds are good he's got a pair of Jacks (though maybe I should expect him to 3-bet that more often than call?), but I've got outs to both halves of the pot plus the A is a scare card.

On 5th, I brick, and Marcel catches a 3. I bet, he calls.

On 6th, I pair my 8, he catches 2. I bet, he raises. That was unexpected. I think for a while and can't figure what he has. A5 suited with the Jack seems most likely, or maybe rolled-up Jacks that he's been slowplaying. Somewhat less likely are 65 suited with the J or a smaller pair in the hole that's since made trips. I seriously consider folding but decide to call.

Thankfully I brick the river and check-fold. The guy on my right asks Marcel to show the suited A5. Marcel shows A5, but only the 5 is suited to the J. Obviously not a standard call on 3rd, but Marcel's almost certainly a better S/8 player than I am, so I don't want to write it off as an error. Possibly he put me on a steal and had a plan to take it away later if he didn't go runner runner runner perfect.

I could have sworn that they'd said we were only playing 7 levels, but there indeed 8, and I busted about halfway through the last level. I got it in on 5th with four to a low and a pair of Aces against an open pair of 7's and what turned out to be Kings up. They both made full houses on the river, and I missed my low.

David Sklansky's Home Invaded

2009-06-27T08:59:00.002-05:00

Legendary 2+2 poker author David Sklansky was recently the victim of a home invasion robbery committed by what appeared to be several armed individuals. According to the local NBC affiliate,

"'The guy burst into the bedroom, it was dark but I did see what appeared to be a gun,'" home invasion victim David Sklansky recalls.

Sklansky was asleep in his bedroom when two men broke into his home near Wigwam and Bermuda shortly after 3 am Thursday morning."

Thankfully, no one was hurt. Sklansky's cool-headed (some might say robotic) personality surely helped in that regard:

"'During the time he was there, my main focus was to make sure that he didn't think that I was panicking or that I would do something silly,'" Sklansky explains. "'The advice is the same as in a poker game; you try and figure out what the other guy is thinking and then act accordingly. I can imagine if he was doing this same robbery with someone who didn't' behave the way I did it could have turned out terribly.'"

I think it's particularly funny that the article doesn't in any way explain Sklansky's involvement with poker, so I'm sure that quote comes across as bizarre to those who don't know who he is.

Based on his forum posts, Sklansky seems to be taking it remarkably well, though in characteristically oddball fashion:

"I have no personal animosity toward these guys. They used the absolute lowest level of force necessary to accomplish their purposes. In one of my books I wrote that there is not enough difference in the punishment of criminals who harm victims and those who don't, using Steve Wynn's daughter's kidnapping as an example. I'm not going to change my mind just because I am now one of those victims. In this case I doubt they will be caught anyway since I never saw them and they let the other person in the house sleep through it!

Meanwhile if this is being read by the robbers or someone who knows them I would request that they mail me those few things (photos, etc) that are of no value to them but are to me."

Early reports indicate that the parrot is unharmed.

Imperial Palace, Here I Come!

2009-06-26T21:38:00.003-05:00

So apparently Vegas isn't quite as dead as I thought and waiting until the day before my arrival to make hotel arrangements was not wise. The Rio is booked solid until Tuesday, so I'm spending my first three nights at the good old Imperial Palace. I stayed there last year, and honestly, I expected worse. Hopefully I didn't just get an abnormally non-crappy room.

Quick little Twitter update/clarification (sorry I am just learning how to use this): you don't actually have to have a Twitter account to get updates. Just go to http://twitter.com/thinkingpoker and you can you see my most recent Tweets.

I'll be using that for occasional chip count updates and reports on important hands, but I'll still try to post more substantive stuff on the blog as time permits. It shouldn't be a problem through the first few days of the main event, but should I make it to Day 3, I'll have a lot less free time from then on out.

Wish me luck!

2009-06-25T06:16:00.002-05:00

This was one of the more interesting hands from a heads up match I played as part of a Poker Savvy Plus video. I think it illustrates at several different points how position and a solid read on an opponent enables you to navigate a tricky situation.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $2.00 BB (2 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Hero (Button) ($427.50)
SB ($260)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 2, 2
Hero bets $6, SB calls $4

Flop: ($12) K, 7, 5 (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $8, SB raises to $24, Hero calls $16

Turn: ($60) 7 (2 players)
SB bets $42, Hero calls $42

River: ($144) 8 (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $105, 1 fold

Total pot: $144 | Rake: $0.50

Results:
Hero didn't show 2, 2 (nothing).
Outcome: Hero won $143.50

My opponent was not super-aggressive, but he did seem to be capable of check-raise bluffing some flops, and this was a good one for it. I think his check-raising range on the flop is good top pairs and better, draws (of which there are very few), and bluffs. He would have check-called a weaker pair or Ace-high type of hand. An underpair actually has very poor equity against that range, and if Villain were a trickier player, I think I'd have to fold the flop.

In this case, though, I felt I had a good handle on his turn tendencies. In particular, I didn't think he would follow up on his bluffs very often, allowing me to take my hand to showdown if it was best. That's a very important consideration when you're bluff-catching on early streets: even if you do have the best hand, will you be able to show it down or will you often get bluffed off it before the river?

I'd also seen that he was capable of betting again with a good top pair when the board paired on the turn. Thus, despite my read that he wouldn't often fire a second bluff, I thought he was more likely to have one pair (well, two pair technically, but you know what I mean) than trips or better when he bet the turn. There were just so few sevens/sets in his flop range that I thought bluffs and Kings were the majority of his turn range.

Obviously deuces are not in good shape against that range, particularly not with a pair on the board. At this point, I am not calling with the intention to showdown my hand. Rather, I'm floating the turn, expecting that Villain will check-fold often on the river. Although I'll sometimes be bluffing with the best hand, I also believe that I get him off of his top pair hands.

Basically, there's no reason why he would check a strong hand on the river. If he likes his hand, he'll shove. With a medium-strength hand like top pair moderate kicker, I think he'll check expecting me to check back very often. When I do bet, it's very hard for him to put me on something worse than a good K. I'd have to have been floating him twice to show up with a bluff on the river.

Article Requests

2009-06-22T09:24:00.002-05:00

I've recently received a few requests for old articles of mine that appeared in the 2+2 Magazine. First off, let me apologize that my archive is so out of date. The revamping of the website has proved far more complicated than anticipated, but it is nearly finished now. When it launches, it will contain an up-to-date archive of all my strategy articles and book reviews. Until then, you're free to e-mail requests for specific articles to me at foucault82(at)yahoo(dot)com. As long as the volume doesn't get overwhelming, I'm generally able to reply very quickly, though there may be some delay while I'm in Las Vegas the next few weeks. Thanks to everyone who's interested in reading these, it's very flattering!

WSOPWSOP

2009-06-22T00:14:00.003-05:00

Though I haven't played as many WSOP satellites this year as I did in years past, restricting myself only to those with $500+ buy-ins, I managed by yesterday to spend enough on satellites that I could have just bought in direct and paid myself the bonus money that comes with the FTP and Stars packages. Naturally, I hadn't yet won a seat.

Today, though, I played three satellites and won two of them! One was on Stars and one was, for the first time in my career, on FTP. The Stars sponsorship package sucks this year, and I haven't looked into FTP's but I doubt it's much better, so I'll probably go without and hope to negotiate something if I go deep.

I'm too tired to think through all the hands I played, but here's one moderately neat one against the most active player at the table:

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $615+$35 Tournament, 700/1400 Blinds 175 Ante (8 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

BB (t28911)
UTG (t42460)
UTG+1 (t47562)
MP1 (t40961)
Hero (MP2) (t41997)
CO (t37399)
Button (t32798)
SB (t55403)

Hero's M: 12.00

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with Q, 7
3 folds, Hero bets t2888, 3 folds, BB calls t1488

Flop: (t7876) 2, J, 9 (2 players)
BB bets t3800, Hero raises to t8888, 1 fold

Total pot: t15476

Yeah, I'm representing a really narrow range, but what's he gonna do about it? Three-bet jam on me with air on the bubble of a satellite? I don't think he ever leads out here with a strong hand. For one thing, he's jamming anything that makes top pair good kicker or better pre-flop except for J9 (doubt he calls J2 or 92). If he has a draw or any pair, particularly at this stage of the tournament, he'd definitely prefer to be the one shoving in (ie by check-shoving) than the one calling by leading out to induce a shove from me.

How Twitter is Changing the World of Professional Poker

2009-06-20T10:44:00.002-05:00

Yesterday's New York Times ran an article about how poker players are using Twitter. I can't say it's particularly thorough and insightful, in fact it seems to be based almost entirely on an interview with Joe Sebok of Poker Road, it's neat to see our little world getting some mainstream attention.

As reporter Marshall Kirkpatrick notes, "Big name players are Tweeting but small timers at the big show are too. Traditional poker reporting didn't shed much light on the experiences of amateurs, but Sebok says those players on the margins can now tell their families and friends to check Twitter for play by play accounts of their experiences in Vegas."

As it happens, I myself will be Tweeting from the WSOP on @thinkingpoker. So follow along!

I Hate Good Players

2009-06-19T21:44:00.003-05:00

Full Tilt Poker, $40/$80 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 5 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter

SB: $34,593
Hero (BB): $22,437
UTG: $19,010
CO: $22,366
BTN: $8,180

Pre-Flop: 8 6 dealt to Hero (BB)
3 folds, SB raises to $320, Hero calls $240

Flop: ($640) 5 4 5 (2 Players)
SB bets $420, Hero calls $420

Turn: ($1,480) A (2 Players)
SB checks, Hero bets $666, SB calls $666

River: ($2,812) K (2 Players)
SB checks, Hero checks

Results: $2,812 Pot ($3 Rake)
SB showed 9 Q (a pair of Fives) and WON $2,809 (+$1,403 NET)
Hero showed 8 6 (a pair of Fives) and LOST (-$1,406 NET)

This isn't really all that fancy or anything, and obviously my range on the turn is quite wide, but a lot of people just aren't capable of check-calling down with Q-high. I'm glad I didn't bluff the river, because I'm pretty sure he would have called.

WSOP Plans

2009-06-18T10:39:00.002-05:00

Sorry for the recent lack of updates, but I haven't been playing all that much. Since I'll be in Vegas soon and devoting myself to poker nearly 24/7, I'm trying to get some other stuff done right now.

Speaking of Vegas, thanks to everyone who's asked what my plans are. I'm heading out there on the 27th and plan to play the $1500 Stud/8 tournament on the 28th. Should I somehow manage not to final table that, I'll play the $5000 6-max NLHE event on the 30th, then Day of the Main Event on July 3. That's likely to be it for major tournaments, as I do want to play some cash games and maybe a few of those juicy juicy satellites. I also want to meet/hang out with some people, so if you're going to be in Vegas during that time, by all means let me know (foucault82 (at) yahoo (dot) com) so we can grab a drink or something.

Also, while I'll continue to post daily updates here, I'm also going to try Tweating my chip counts and such during the tournaments. I know, I know, Twitter is largely a toolish thing to do, but it seems pretty ideal for poker tournament updates. You can follow me on @thinkingpoker.

Wish me luck!

I Am Adorable

2009-06-14T19:41:00.003-05:00

I didn't have any kind of read that dude was gonna spaz out like this, but it's the kind of thing that happens when you make strange bets:

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $10.00 BB (5 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Button ($885)
SB ($2165)
Hero (BB) ($2458)
UTG ($2519)
MP ($835)

Preflop: Hero is BB with A, K
2 folds, Button bets $30, 1 fold, Hero raises to $111, Button calls $81

Flop: ($227) 5, 5, K (2 players)
Hero bets $166, Button calls $166

Turn: ($559) 6 (2 players)
Hero bets $111, Button raises to $608 (All-In), Hero calls $497

River: ($1775) 9 (2 players, 1 all-in)

Total pot: $1775 | Rake: $3

Results:
Button had 9, J (two pair, nines and fives).
Hero had A, K (two pair, Kings and fives).
Outcome: Hero won $1772

Quantifying the Value of Position

2009-06-13T21:51:00.003-05:00

Even though I'm too sloppy/lazy/uneducated to work out the details of complicated problems, I'm quite interested in the mathematics of poker. I feel like I do have a broad grasp of the game theory that underlies many situations and can use that to aid in my decision-making. Recently, I've been curious about how to quantify exactly the value of seemingly abstract concepts like position and implied odds. I think I may have come upon a sketch of how to work some of it out, though I doubt I'll ever follow up on it.

We start with the "exploitability", the idea that there is something about how you play that an opponent could potentially take advantage of. Conversely, "unexploitable" means that there is nothing an opponent could do to take advantage of how you play. Importantly, unexploitably is not always the most profitable way to play. Often, you will do something exploitable in order to exploit something exploitable an opponent is doing.

Suppose that you hold AQ in the big blind in a $1/$2 NLHE game. The action folds to the SB, who open shoves for $20. If you know that this opponent will only shove JJ+ and AK, you can fold your AQ. Though itself exploitable, this fold exploits your opponent's excessively tight shoving range.

If you were to call with AQ, that would be less profitable than folding but it would also be unexploitable. In other words, there is nothing your opponent could do to take advantage of the fact that you are going to call with AQ, and in the long run you will make money, though not as much money, with a strategy that involves calling AQ. This is because the money you lose on the AQ call is more than made up for by all of the pots you win that your opponent could have picked up if he weren't playing so tight.

It's relatively simple to determine an optimal shoving range for the SB and then to determine how much you gain if the SB's shoving strategy is tighter than optimal. Take it a step back and suppose that it is the player on the Button with just $20 and shoving an overly tight range. Now it should be clear that both the SB and BB benefit by having their blinds stolen less often than would be optimal. The money that the Button loses in missed steals is shared by the players in the blinds. The situation is actually more complex for both, but I want to back up again to accentuate a point.

Put the very tight short stack in the CO. It is still possible, and indeed relatively simple, to determine an optimal shoving range for him. If he shoves more tightly than optimal, we can calculate exactly how much Expected Value he loses as a result. This EV must be shared by the Button, SB, and BB. We already know that the blinds' benefit primarily by having their live money stolen less often.

The Button, however, does not have any money in the pot, yet he too benefits from an overly tight CO. If we can calculate how much the blinds gain from the CO's mistake, then the difference between what the CO loses relative to an optimal shoving strategy and how much the blinds collectively gain will be the value of the button.

I suppose it would be the value of the Button assuming the other players all play optimally, such that it would change if the Button were more or less skillful than the blinds. Still, it seems like this could be a strategy for someone more mathematically inclined than myself to approximate the value of position.

Am I on to something or just tired?

Edit: I was just tired. After sleeping on this, I realized that the BB's EV is intrinsically dependent on that of the Button. In other words, the deeper the stacks are and the better Button plays, the more the Button is worth and the less the BB is worse. I was hoping to come at the Button backwards, treating the SB's and BB's EVs as roughly solvable quantities and using those to approximate the Button's EV as a variable. But we can't actually find the BB's EV without knowing the Button's EV, since most of the latter comes at the expense of the former. And the same problem exists for the SB.

A Critical Bet Sizing Tell

2009-06-10T19:53:00.002-05:00

Let me say up front that I do this whole "check and figure it out" thing entirely too often against good players, and I have to stop. That said, in this case something about his turn bet led me to conclude that I ought to call the river.

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $10.00 BB (6 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

BB ($2000.30)
Hero (UTG) ($2000)
MP ($1543.50)
CO ($1734.80)
Button ($2358.50)
SB ($2077.70)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with 5, A
Hero bets $33, 2 folds, Button raises to $106, 2 folds, Hero raises to $266, Button calls $160

Flop: ($556) 6, A, Q (2 players)
Hero checks, Button checks

Turn: ($556) 2 (2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets $290, Hero calls $290

River: ($1136) 4 (2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets $1801 (All-In), Hero calls $1442.50 (All-In)

Total pot: $4021 | Rake: $3

Results:
Button had 8, 9 (high card, Ace).
Hero had 5, A (one pair, Aces).
Outcome: Hero won $4018

Let me kick this one to you, dear readers. Can you figure out what it is about the sizing of his turn bet that led me to call his overbet shove on the river?

Nice River

2009-06-09T16:26:00.002-05:00

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $50.00 BB (6 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

BB ($9000.50)
UTG ($16025)
MP ($5309)
Hero (CO) ($10269)
Button ($10000)
SB ($10391)

Preflop: Hero is CO with A, J
2 folds, Hero bets $175, 1 fold, SB calls $150, 1 fold

Flop: ($400) J, 8, 9 (2 players)
SB checks, Hero checks

Turn: ($400) K (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $269, SB raises to $1025, Hero calls $756

River: ($2450) K (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $1669, 1 fold

Total pot: $2450 | Rake: $3

A big part of my reason for checking the flop is that I so rarely check back a flush draw, and this is one of the best flush draws to check (ie also having top pair to go along with it, so that the fold equity of a semi-bluff isn't worth much to you). This means that when the flush comes in on the turn, my opponent is going to think I can't have it.

So, OK, I get the raise I wanted, which is probably a bluff but could be two pair or a set that's comfortable bloating the pot since I'll rarely have the flush. When I call, I don't know how often he'll continue bluffing. Rivers that pair the board are definitely going to be scary for him, though, as are diamonds, since my likely holding for calling is either set/two pair or a pair with a diamond.

Given that there are so many rivers that discourage bluffing, plus the fact that he may not continue bluffing anyway, plus the fact that his river bluff wouldn't be that big, I might be better off 3-betting the turn. I imagine he'll bluff less often, but when he does, it will have to be a far bigger amount than a river bluff would be. Plus, if he's check-raising for value, I can win a much bigger pot from him.

Change is Coming

2009-06-08T17:29:00.002-05:00

As a first step towards a larger blog/website revamping, I'm finally moving away from the awful Ipower company that's been hosting the blog. This should be a smooth transition that doesn't result in any downtime, but nothing with them has ever gone smoothly, so we'll see. If for some reason you do have trouble accessing the blog at some point this week, no worries- it should be back up shortly.

Thanks!

Final Tabled the Stars $300

2009-06-07T05:34:00.000-05:00

Maybe I haven't forgotten how to play tournaments altogether? I went into yesterdays' session resolved not to LAG off too many stacks in my tournaments, and while I didn't entirely keep that pledge, I did play a pretty disciplined game in the Stars $300. To wit:

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $300+$20 Tournament, 1250/2500 Blinds 250 Ante (6 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

MP (t127213)
Hero (CO) (t79552)
Button (t84040)
SB (t67653)
BB (t142860)
UTG (t76565)

Hero's M: 15.15

Preflop: Hero is CO with Q, Q
UTG bets t5575, 1 fold, Hero raises to t12222, 2 folds, BB raises to t32500, 2 folds

Total pot: t32769

UTG was by far the most active player at the table, and I'd been 3-betting him quite a bit on the final table bubble. Here I was going to fist-pump-snap-call if he shoved, but the cold 4-bet from the much tighter BB sent me packing without much thought.

Immediately after that hand, I was moved to the other table, where I made this slightly more questionable fold:

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $300+$20 Tournament, 1250/2500 Blinds 250 Ante (5 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

UTG (t226479)
MP (t160520)
Button (t42353)
SB (t213820)
Hero (BB) (t61025)

Hero's M: 12.21

Preflop: Hero is BB with 9, A
1 fold, MP calls t2500, 1 fold, SB calls t1250, Hero checks

Flop: (t8750) 9, 7, 8 (3 players)
SB checks, Hero checks, MP bets t7500, 1 fold, Hero folds

Total pot: t8750

This might be a bit too tight, but my thinking was that this guy's limp was a little suspicious to begin with (remember, I am brand new to the table, so no read), and I don't think he's potting it with just anything. In particular, I'm not sure how many worse pairs/weak draws are in his pre-flop limping range, and I don't think he's betting with air. Even if I am ahead of his betting range, I don't think I'm ahead of his range for calling a check-shove, and the hand will be tough to play if I just check-call. Maybe I should have led out?

Anyway, I went on to make the final table only to be eliminated in 9th when my 77 lost to AKs all in preflop.

Pot Odds!

2009-06-04T21:20:00.002-05:00

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $10.00 BB (6 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Button ($1000)
SB ($1195.75)
Hero (BB) ($2396)
UTG ($1232)
MP ($1679)
CO ($1052)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 9, 10
2 folds, CO bets $30, Button calls $30, SB calls $25, Hero raises to $150, CO raises to $300, 2 folds, Hero calls $150

Flop: ($660) 8, J, 4 (2 players)
Hero checks, CO checks

Turn: ($660) 6 (2 players)
Hero checks, CO checks

River: ($660) 4 (2 players)
Hero bets $111, 1 fold

Total pot: $660 | Rake: $3

I hope he wasn't planning on folding to a pre-flop shove. Even putting him on a very strong range, I don't want to fold getting 3.5:1. The flop is a tough decision. I surely fold to a shove, but I can't very well open shove myself. I'm probably just calling if I get the right odds and folding otherwise.

Shoving the turn is probably best. For some reason, I had a feeling he was trapping. I guess it was just that I thought he was really strong pre-flop.

On the river, I just wanted to have some fun. Obviously I don't need him to fold often at all for this to show a profit, plus it just puts a smile on your face when it works.

May

2009-06-04T06:53:00.003-05:00

May was a solid month, though a bit bittersweet because it started off phenomenally and then took a pretty sour turn. I can't complain about the bottom line, but let's see what kind of progress I'm making on my yearly goals.

Resolution One: Keep Grinding NLHE Cash Games

Goal 1: Earn $X in NLHE Cash Games

Still chugging along at not-quite-on-track-but-satisfied-nonetheless. I've played about 165K hands, which I'm happy about as well.

Goal 2: Earn Supernova status on PokerStars

I'm on track anyway, having maintained by Platinum status for the month, but I'd really like to win a Poker Stars WSOP satellite for the cash overlay and the 100K VPPs.

Resolution Two: Diversify My Income Streams

Goal 3: Monetize This Blog

The WordPress upgrade I promised way back when is finally under serious development, thanks to minimal effort from myself and considerable work on the part of my girlfriend.

Goal 4: Get Back Into Coaching

I finished up the first group seminar and was very happy with how it went. All three participants have told me they were as well, and one of them has already arranged some individual sessions.

I'm not going to start another group seminar before the WSOP, but I am open to taking on a few new individual students. Cost for individual lessons is $250/hour. I probably won't run another group seminar until after the WSOP, but when I do, cost will likely be $100/student/hour. I generally aim to work with students for 5-10 hours over the course of a few weeks, and the lessons are designed to run very efficiently. There's a lot of content packed into every session, ensuring you a ton of value for your money.

I'd say my target audience is cash game players currently playing smaller stakes (50NL-400NL) who want to transition into bigger games. I can help you think about your game in a new way, identify leaks, and deal with the tough spots with which the more difficult opponents at higher stakes will surely confront you.

Hit me up at foucault82 (at) yahoo (dot) com if you're interested. Tell me a little about yourself, what you currently play, and what your goals are. Of course I'm happy to answer any questions as well.

Goal 5: Market My Writing

Well, select articles are now available in Finnish, which is pretty cool. Not much else to report, though.

Resolution Three: Improve My NLHE Skills

Goal 6: Use Poker Tracker More Effectively

I'm currently enjoying my free trial of Hold 'Em Manager. I feel like a total traitor for saying this, because I've long been a huge fan of Poker Tracker, and their support is out-of-this-world. That's not a trivial thing when dealing with database issues.

I must admit, though, that HEM seems to have much better functionality. I like their HUD, I like their filters and reports, and I like their graphs. I'm probably going to buy the full version and convert.

Goal 7: Finish the Year with a 4BB/100 Win-Rate at 5/10 NL.

My overall win-rate right now is 1.83 BB/100. More impressive, though, is that it's at 7 BB/100 over 17K hands at 25/50 and 8 BB/100 over 34K hands at 10/20.

Surprisingly, I'm barely breaking even over 100K hands at 5/10. I'm guessing that's some combination of game selection and luck, which have both been considerably better at the higher stakes.

Goal 8: Play 50,000 Hands of Heads Up NLHE

I only played about 2000 hands this month, but for the year I'm at almost 10BB/100 over 22K hands. I'm hoping that a recent policy change at Full Tilt Poker will make it easier to find action going forward:

"Due to increasing complaints of players occupying many tables alone, Full Tilt Poker will be introducing limitations on the number of heads-up cash games that a player can be sitting at while waiting for an opponent.

Effective immediately, a player is permitted to wait at only one table for each betting level and game type, and at most four tables in total.

For example, you may sit and wait for an opponent at $5-10 NL Hold'em, $5-10 PL Hold'em, $10-20 NL Hold'em, and $10-20 PL Hold'em, but you may not sit and wait at more than one table of any one type, and not more than four tables in total.

The limitations only apply to the practice of occupying many tables while waiting. If you are actively playing at a heads-up table, you may then begin waiting at another table of the same type. There is no restriction on the number of tables you may play (other than the normal limitations on active games)."

When I first received an e-mail from FTP with the subject line "Notification of Seating Limit Policy", my heart skipped a beat. I feared this might be some doomsday e-mail telling me I couldn't play more than four tables or something. Instead, it turns out to address a practice that majorly pisses me off, which is a bunch of regulars sitting alone at four or more heads up tables and refusing to play anyone but fish.

When I'm looking for a game, it's incredibly annoying to have to scroll through 60 open tables filled with the same 10 players who I know won't play with me hoping to find a single name I don't recognize. And of course since I refused to stoop to that level of douchery, the odds of a fish choosing to sit at my one open table were considerably lower. But that all ends today, woohoo!

Dani "Ansky" Stern Finishes Fourth in the WSOP 40K!

2009-06-01T22:29:00.003-05:00

Congratulations to Poker Savvy's Dani "Ansky" Stern, who finished fourth for better than half a million dollars in the special $40K NLHE WSOP anniversary event. I'm ashamed to say that I didn't even realize he was at the final table. I'd looked at an article about the final table that didn't mention him and never looked into it any further.

The field featured 201 players, including most of the best in the world, and the final table definitely represented that. Dani had to tangle with the likes of Ted Forrest, Greg Raymer, Justin Bonomo, Alec Torelli, and former Poker Savvy pro Isaac Haxton, who finished second to eventual winner Vitaly Lunkin.

Congratulations Dani!