Comments on Crash Landing: Caplan Notes Flaw in Bayesian Updating Theory

Game is a life; you know that life is also a game,...

2008-12-24T00:14:00.000-05:00

Game is a life; you know that life is also a game, right? We need aoc gold to play the game. Playing game is an amusement for everyone to play. We can find fun from cheap aoc gold. This is a funny world, different from the past, aoc money is a good way for you to enjoy the life. We can make conan gold in the game. We also can buy age of conan gold

We offer WoW power leveling,World of Warcraft powe...

2008-12-23T03:05:00.000-05:00

Welcome to wow gold our wow Gold and wow power le...

2008-11-10T19:29:00.000-05:00

Welcome to wow gold our wow Gold and wow power leveling store. We wow gold are specilized, wow power leveling professional and reliable wow power leveling website for wow power leveling selling and wow gold service. By the World of Warcraft gold same token,we offer wow power leveling the best WoW service wow power leveling for our long-term and wow powerleveling loyal customers. wow powerleveling You will find wow powerleveling the benefits and value powerleveling we created powerleveling different from other sites. As to most people, power leveling they are unwilling to power leveling spend most of wow power leveling the time wow gold grinding money Rolex for mounts or rolex replica repair when replica rolex they can purchase Watches Rolex what they Rolex Watches are badly need. The Watch Rolex only way is to look Rolex Watch for the best place rs gold to buy cheap WOW gold. Yes! You find it here! Our WoW Gold supplying service has already accumulated a high reputation and credibility. We have plenty of Gold suppliers, which will guarantee our delivery instant. Actually, we have been getting Runescape Gold tons of postive feedbacks from our loyal RuneScape Money customers who really appreciate our service.

warhammer gold warhammer money warhammer accounts ...

2008-10-20T23:25:00.000-04:00

warhammer gold warhammer money warhammer accounts tibia money tibia gold tibia item runescape accounts buy runescape accounts runescape money runescape gold runescape gp runescape power leveling runescape powerleveling cheap rs2 powerleveling runescape equipment buy rs equipment runescape runes cheap rs2 runes runescape logs cheap rs2 logs runescape items buy runescape items runescape quest point rs2 quest point cheap runescape questpoint runescape gold runescape items runescape power leveling runescape money runescape gold buy runescape gold buy runescape money runescape items runescape accounts runescape gp runescape accounts runescape money runescape power leveling runescape powerleveling tibia gold dofus kamas buy dofus kamas wow power leveling wow powerleveling runescape questpoint rs2 questpoint Warcraft PowerLeveling Warcraft Power Leveling World of Warcraft PowerLeveling World of Warcraft Power Leveling Hellgate money Hellgate gold buy runescape logs buy rs2 items cheap runescape items Hellgate London gold Guild Wars Gold buy Guild Wars Gold runescape items rs2 accounts cheap rs2 equipments lotro gold buy lotro gold buy runescape money buy runescape gold buy runescape runes lotro gold buy lotro gold runescape money runescape gold cheap rs2 powerleveling eve isk eve online isk buy runescape power leveling rs2 power leveling tibia gold tibia item runescape accounts Fiesta Silver Fiesta Gold Scions of Fate Gold Hellgate Palladium Hellgate London Palladium SOF Gold Age Of Conan Gold AOC Gold ArchLord gold tibia money tibia gold runescape accounts runescape gold cheap rs2 powerleveling buy ArchLord gold DDO Plat Dungeons and Dragons Online Plat

Gene said:[I]t's really best you leave this sort o...

2008-06-22T21:30:00.000-04:00

Gene said:

[I]t's really best you leave this sort of thing to the experts, OK?

My prior assumption was that I was cockier than you.

I may have to update.

Oh, and anonymous, it's really best you leave this...

2008-06-22T18:01:00.000-04:00

Oh, and anonymous, it's really best you leave this sort of thing to the experts, OK?

I don't get what you think I'm mistaken about. (Oh...

2008-06-22T17:38:00.000-04:00

I don't get what you think I'm mistaken about. (Oh, and I read "directly" about Bayesian updating and studied it with experts at LSE -- one of the top rational choice schools in the world.) Should the "posterior" be arrived at through Bayesian updating or not? If it is, and the prior assigned to quantum mechanics was 0, then the posterior will be 0 also. Do you disagree with that?

Maybe what you're getting at is that I "misused" prior as coming in after the data -- but that was my point -- the scientists DON'T do Bayesian updating, and instead, effectively, set new priors.

Gene, Kind of a mistake here. Scientists see the d...

2008-06-22T17:27:00.000-04:00

Gene,
Kind of a mistake here. Scientists see the data and they get a POSTERIOR, not a prior. Priors and posteriors are probability measures on parameter (or model) space. So, with the new data, the posterior would assign a much lower probability to the Newtonian model continuing to be true. And this new posterior is used for all future predictions, which would give a much higher probability of these quantum effects.

If you're looking for densities on event space, usually they'd be predictive densities, prior predictive or posterior predictive. Given the prior of believing that there is a high probability of Newtonian mechanics begin true, all of the quantum phenomena are unlikely to be believed as being possible, that part is true.

I don't see the problem.

Best to leave these things to experts or try to read from them directly. Have you read any books on the philosophy of probability? I'll think you'll see that Bayesian theory, either subjectivist (a la de Finetti) or objectivist (a la Jeffreys and Jaynes) is relatively sound when confronted with these sorts of minor attacks.

Just curious, do you guys follow the Overcoming Bi...

2008-06-21T18:58:00.000-04:00

Just curious, do you guys follow the Overcoming Bias blog? Eliezer Yudkowsky writes a lot about Bayesian reasoning; it'd be fun to watch him and Gene argue.

Yes, Jacob, you have hit upon another problem with...

2008-06-20T22:57:00.000-04:00

Yes, Jacob, you have hit upon another problem with this Bayesian updating model, and that is why I put "start out" in quotes -- somehow, there is supposed to exist some virginal moment when one is "assigning" probabilities to outcomes or theories in the absence of any prior evidence, and, of course, such a moment can never exist.

Instead, what really occurs is a continual updating of one's "priors" which were never really "prior" in the first place, but always were formed on the basis of existing evidence.

I don't understand what it means to assign probabi...

2008-06-20T22:42:00.000-04:00

I don't understand what it means to assign probabilities like this to begin with. Don't you need a repeating (or at least repeatable) process for probabilities to be meaningful?

Yes, I can say things like "I think Obama has a 60 % change of winning" but isn't this just a way of communicating subjective strength of uncertainty? It's not like we can ever re-run history and see whether in fact, out of 100 elections Obama wins 60 of them. How can we speak scientifically of probabilities if we never have a way of determining whether the probability assigned was "right"?

These probabilities seem to me like saying "I like vanilla ice cream twice as much as chocolate". Just because you can say that, and it communicates something to someone else, does not mean that we should take it too literally.