Comments on Crash Landing: Now I Know How Keynesians Felt in the 1970s

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Since 06, there has been a split in the hard money...

2008-03-25T14:54:00.000-04:00

Since 06, there has been a split in the hard money logosphere as to whether the US Fed has been loose or tight with the money supply.

Some like North and Shedlock claim M1 growth is flat therefore the US money supply is deflating.

Some cite MZM or M3 and claim money and credit are balooning therefore total US money supply is loose.

The former camp always sites the St. Louis Fed's adjusted monetary base chart.

I find it ironic that anti state economists can argue that the government cooks the books when it comes to CPI, the unemployment rate, GDP etc., but those same economists take money supply statistics provided by the Fed as accurate? How does one think the government lies about just about everything also believe the Fed's data?

RW: OK that is helpful. I guess I should first o...

2008-03-24T18:12:00.000-04:00

RW: OK that is helpful. I guess I should first of all look at the various components of M1. You're right, I was acting as if M1 = reserves, when it is more than that.

Gene,I'm not 100% sure what you mean. I am not ma...

2008-03-24T18:08:00.000-04:00

Gene,

I'm not 100% sure what you mean. I am not making a purely theoretical argument; I am using my "understanding" (Mises) to say that the demand for reserves increased since August, and that the supply of reserves has not increased. Then my theory tells me that the fed funds right should be higher than it was last summer. Yet it's lower.

So now I'm asking, what is wrong? Either the supply/demand curves didn't move the way I thought, or my deductive theory is invalid.

Actually, banks are aggressively sweeping funds fr...

2008-03-24T08:17:00.000-04:00

Actually, banks are aggressively sweeping funds from checking accounts to various time deposits which are a part of M2.

The reserve requirements are much less stringent on time deposits, thus giving banks greater flexibility.

Over the last 3 months M2 is up at annualized rate of over 10%.

History is not amenable to theoretical analysis, ...

2008-03-24T02:28:00.000-04:00

History is not amenable to theoretical analysis, but only to historical analysis.