WILD PITCH

Mailbag, July 5th, 2007

2007-07-12T14:08:00.000-07:00

Fantasy Fandom, July 5th, 2007
Contributed By: Ray Flowers of BaseballGuys.com

FANTASY MAILBAG

Quick question. If you had to make the call on the following deal, which side would you rather be on? Andrew Jones or Michael Cuddyer?
-- Shawn, Seattle

Who would have thought four months ago that this would be a valid question? Andruw Jones has been horrible almost from day 1 producing arguably the worst overall numbers of his career. Jones, hitting .201-14-48-38-3, has a massive 87 Ks in 83 games with a .176 average in day games and an identical .176 mark since May 1st, a span of 58 games. This is no longer a slump, it’s way beyond that. Jones owns career average of .263 but his unseemly .201 mark is simply atrocious. Though Jones is still on pace for 25+ HRs and 90+ RBIs, he averaged 46 HRs and 129 RBIs the past two seasons so his owners might be close to pulling back on a bottle of vodka to dull the pain. Less HRs, RBIs, runs scored (he is on pace for his worst total since 1997) and that average mark him as the modern day Rob Deer. How scary is that?

Michael Cuddyer on the other hand is enjoying a strong season (.280-9-51-55-3). Hitting 4th in the Twins lineup, Cuddyer is on pace for a second straight 100 RBI, 100 run season, something, shockingly, Jones hasn’t done sine 2000-01. Cuddyer currently has more runs (17), hits (22), RBIs (3) with a higher average (.079 points), OBP (.067 points), SLG% (.048 points) and OPS (.116) than Jones though amazingly Jones still holds the advantage in HRs (14 to 9). Regardless, Cuddyer has been the more consistent and overall stronger performer, so if it was me, I would prefer Cuddyer at this point since 83 games with a .201 average just scares the hell out of me.

I have Ken Griffey, Carlos Lee, Carl Crawford, and Corey Hart as my OFs and Rafael Furcal as my shortstop. I was offered a trade of J.J. Hardy for Crawford. My gut reaction is to say no, hoping that Furcal will actually start playing better. Should I try and get more for Crawford?
-- Jeff, Mesquite, TX.

You should absolutely ask for much, much more for Carl Crawford than J.J. Hardy no matter how strong your OF is. Crawford (.286-6-51-44-21) is a top-10 talent despite a less than superb first half. Still, he is on pace for a career-high in RBI (previously 81), and he should still steal 40+ bases by the time the season is complete. Those SBs are just too hard to give away when you consider the fact that unlike some other speedsters, Crawford contributes in other categories. Crawford has been cold at the plate of late but as recently as June 24th he was hitting .303, so don’t make the mistake of just looking at his overall batting average and being disappointed.

I have written about Hardy a couple of times this year, and just as common sense had predicted, he has slowed dramatically despite great overall numbers (.283-18-52-48-0). In another case of ‘don’t be fooled by overall numbers’, Hardy has only 3 HRs in his last 29 games and even worse just 6 RBIs in his last 23 outings. He is also hitting only just .233 over his last 23 games, so even though his overall numbers are tremendous, he hasn’t been worthy of starting for over a month. Hardy will be lucky to be a top-10 SS the rest of the way whereas Crawford could easily be a top-10 overall performer. Add to that the fact that Rafael Furcal has been slightly more valuable than Hardy since June 1st (.244-2-13-17-4) and that he, unlike Hardy, has been an all-star caliber talent for years, and you are better off going with Furcal at SS anyway. Go with your gut and pass on this offer.

SABERMETRIC ALLEY
Truth be told, there are quite a few metrics that may not be classified as “new” but might be new to the general reader. The reason for this is basically we only know that which we are exposed to. Each week we will look at one metric or idea that can be added to your “toolbox” of knowledge to help you capture your leagues championship crown through a simple explanation of what it measures.

COMPENENT ERA - DIFFERENCE
Last week we discussed Component ERA or ERC (see: http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2007/fantasy/06/29/fantasy.fandom/1.html). This week, we will build upon that discussion by talking about a concept that plays directly off the idea of ERC, and that is ERC Difference.

Just what is ERC Difference? Simply put it is the difference between the actual ERA and the ERC of a pitcher. By measuring the difference, we can find out which pitchers may be pitching “lucky” and which pitchers may have had poor luck thus far (of course there are many factors involved here, but for space reasons, let’s just go with the supposition that this statement is true). The pitchers who have been “lucky” could very easily see a correction in their ERA in the second half with the resulting number being higher. Conversely, those pitching in “poor luck” right now could see their ERA’s move down in the second half of the season.

There are 92 MLB pitchers who have thrown enough innings to qualify for the ERA title (1 IP per game, or 162 for a full season). These are the pitchers that we will review here. So let’s jump right in.

Chris Young has an ERA of 2.00, tied with Brad Penny for the best mark in baseball. Young’s ERC mark happens to be 2.08. That means that Young currently has an ERA that is 0.08 better than what ERC estimates that number should be. Here is the obvious equation that we are using:

ERC DIFFERENCE = ERA - ERC

Another way to say this would be to say that Young has been slightly “lucky” this season (.08 worth). So, any pitcher who has an ERA that is below his ERC mark could be considered a bit lucky. Here are those pitchers who have experienced the most “luck” according to ERC Difference through July 4th, and are candidates to see their ERA’s rise in the second half if their “luck” runs out.

ERA ERC DIFF.
Doug Davis 4.29 5.99 -1.70
Mike Maroth 5.08 6.36 -1.28
Zach Duke 5.79 6.94 -1.15
Livan Hernandez 4.54 5.55 -1.01
Chuck James 3.96 4.93 -.97
Scott Kazmir 4.28 5.09 -.81
Miguel Batista 4.63 5.31 -.68
Chad Gaudin 2.92 3.57 -.65
Matt Morris 3.25 3.86 -.61
David Wells 4.16 4.77 -.61

A quick look at this list should make you very nervous if these are names that are currently on your roster. Three of the pitchers might surprise you considering the fact that they all have ERA’s below 4.00 (Chuck James, Chad Gaudin and Matt Morris). The others, besides Scott Kazmir, are all borderline control type pitchers who you would have to figure might see some peaks and valleys over the course of a season.

However, this isn’t the end of the discussion. If you want to make ERC Difference even more relevant, it would be beneficial to place it in context. What do I mean by that? Well, even if Gaudin sees his ERA total even out in the second half and it approaches his current ERC mark of 3.57, his ERA would still be just 3.57 or 1.20 runs below the number the ERC mark of David Wells (4.77). However, wouldn’t you still rather have Gaudin in this scenario even if his ERA could adjust by a larger margin than Wells the rest of the way (-.65 compared to -.61) since Gaudin’s ERA will still be much lower than Wells’ mark if things hold? Let me illustrate with a clear example.

PITCHER A has a 1.00 ERA and improves by 10% to .90
PITCHER B has a 10.00 ERA and improves 10% to 9.00

PITCHER B improved by one full run whereas PITCHER A improved by only .10 a run making it appear like PITCHER B improved more. In reality, they both improved by the same 10% mark, it’s just that PITCHER B was so bad to start with that his 10% improvement seems greater without putting it in context. Therefore, we need to place the ERC Difference in context, and in order to do that we simple divide a pitcher’s ERA by his ERC mark.

David Wells = ERA/ ERC
= 4.16/4.77
ERC Difference = 0.87

Wells ERA is actually 13% lower than it should be signaling that a possible rise is in the cards if things “even out” (.87-1.00 = .-13 or 13% below average).

Simply put, if a pitcher has the exact ERA that he should according to ERC his adjusted ERC Difference mark, or ERC+, would be 1.00 (4.16/4.16 as an example). An ERC+ under 1.00 is poor meaning that the pitchers ERA could rise, while an ERC+ above 1.00 is good meaning that his ERA could go down if all other factors remain constant. Here are the pitchers who have been the luckiest so far and are solid bets to see their actual ERA’s rise in the second half.

ERA ERC ERC+
Doug Davis 4.29 5.99 .72
Mike Maroth 5.08 6.36 .80
Chuck James 3.96 4.93 .80
Chad Gaudin 2.92 3.57 .82
Livan Hernandez 4.54 5.55 .82
Brad Penny 2.00 2.41 .83
Zach Duke 5.79 6.94 .83
Scott Kazmir 4.28 5.09 .84
Matt Morris 3.25 3.86 .84
Gil Meche 3.26 3.78 .86

So what this chart shows us is that Livan Hernandez’s actual ERA is 18% lower than it should be according to ERC (.82-1.00 = 0.18) whereas Gaudin’s is also 18% lower despite the fact that his actual ERA is over a run and a half lower (2.92 compared to 4.54). Each pitcher’s ERA is 18% “better” than it should be but even if each pitchers ERA evens out, Livan Hernandez is certainly not the pitcher you want on your team considering the fact that his ERA could be almost two full runs higher than Gaudin (5.55 to 3.57).

Here are the pitchers who could see an improvement in their ERA in the second half if their luck improves (of course, this assumes that hey continue to pitch to the levels that they currently are).

ERA ERC ERC+
Jeremy Guthrie 2.63 1.89 1.39
Ted Lilly 3.84 2.86 1.34
Josh Beckett 3.38 2.62 1.29
Joe Blanton 3.09 2.43 1.27
Javier Vazquez 3.70 2.97 1.25
James Shields 3.76 3.04 1.24
Roy Halladay 4.27 3.51 1.22
Dave Bush 5.11 4.24 1.21
Aaron Harang 3.84 3.19 1.20
Kip Wells 6.06 5.07 1.20

In the end all we are doing here is predicting possible outcomes based on a very small amount of evidence so our “conclusions” could end up being off. In order to form a more sound opinion on a pitchers possible performance the rest of the season we will need more data. To this end, we will try to accumulate another piece of the puzzle next week.

SHORT HOPS

Did you know that Babe Ruth’s career HR total is actually 715 and not 714? The reason for this is that prior to 1920 a “walk off” home run, if it created a winning margin of more than one run, was credited only as whatever hit would have produced the wining run. Therefore, on July 8,1918, Babe Ruth’s “walk off” HR was only credited as a triple. However, his HR total still stands at 714 because MLB has decided to maintain the integrity of its records by allowing the ruling that was rendered to “stand” regardless of whether or not the rules were changed later.

Barry Bonds set the all-time single season HR record in 2001 with 73, but did you know that despite all those homers he still finished 12 extra-base hits behind Babe Ruth’s single season record of 119 set in 1921?

Often overlooked in a spectacular career was the fact that Hank Aaron had 15 different seasons with at least 100 runs, the most such seasons in history.

Known as a singles hitter by most casual fans, where you aware that Ty Cobb finished in the top-10 in OPS a record 20 times during his career (tied with Cap Anson)? In fact, his lifetime OPS of .945 is the 25th best of all-time for batters with at least 5000 plate appearances. To compare, Ken Griffey Jr. has an OPS of .932 despite out-homering Cobb 585 to 117.

Ray Flowers, a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association (FSWA) and the Society for American Baseball Research (SABR), can be reached with comments and questions at: fantasyfandom@yahoo.com. To read more of Ray’s work visit www.Baseballguys.com.

2006 SWIP LEADERS

2007-02-13T17:53:00.000-08:00

SWIP = (K- BB) / IP

To read the full article go to www.sportsgrumblings.com.

Here are the 2006 SWIP Leaders (min. 75 IP).

SWIP
1.16 J.J. Putz
1.07 Takashi Saito
0.99 Ben Sheets
0.93 Francisco Liriano
0.91 Brad Lidge
0.85 Johan Santana
0.84 Jonathan Broxton
0.77 Scott Kazmir
0.76 Curt Schilling
0.76 Jake Peavy
0.74 Pedro Martínez
0.73 Cole Hamels
0.70 Bob Howry
0.69 Mike Mussina
0.69 Francisco Cordero
0.68 Scot Shields
0.68 Aaron Harang
0.67 John Smoltz
0.67 Adam Wainwright
0.66 C.C. Sabathia
0.66 Joel Zumaya
0.64 Jeremy Bonderman
0.64 Roger Clemens
0.64 Kevin Gregg
0.64 Brett Myers
0.64 Chris Carpenter
0.63 Orlando Hernández
0.63 Javier Vázquez
0.61 Dave Bush
0.61 Scott Linebrink
0.61 Félix Hernández
0.61 Jimmy Gobble
0.60 Boof Bonser
0.59 Joaquín Benoit
0.59 Dan Haren
0.59 Mariano Rivera
0.59 Jered Weaver
0.58 A.J. Burnett
0.58 Roy Oswalt
0.57 Chris Capuano
0.55 Scott Baker
0.55 Jesse Crain
0.55 Jon Rauch
0.55 Scott Proctor
0.55 Randy Johnson
0.55 Matt Capps
0.54 Brandon Webb
0.54 John Lackey
0.53 Chris Young
0.53 James Shields
0.52 Erik Bedard
0.52 Aaron Heilman
0.51 Rich Hill
0.51 Kelvim Escobar
0.51 Ian Snell
0.50 Andy Pettitte
0.50 Scott Olsen
0.50 Bronson Arroyo
0.50 Brad Penny
0.48 Kevin Millwood
0.48 Matt Cain
0.48 Darren Oliver
0.47 Jason Schmidt
0.45 Shawn Camp
0.45 Jon Lieber
0.45 Héctor Carrasco
0.45 Roy Halladay
0.45 Anthony Reyes
0.44 Carlos Zambrano
0.44 Byung-Hyun Kim
0.44 Geoff Geary
0.43 Ted Lilly
0.43 Juan Cruz
0.43 Vicente Padilla
0.43 Brandon McCarthy
0.42 Claudio Vargas
0.42 Todd Coffey
0.42 John Maine
0.42 Cory Lidle
0.42 Kyle Lohse
0.42 Brett Tomko
0.41 Ricky Nolasco
0.41 Josh Johnson
0.41 Ryan Dempster
0.41 Josh Beckett
0.41 Rodrigo López
0.40 José Contreras
0.40 Scott Downs
0.40 Freddy García
0.40 Odalis Pérez
0.39 Elmer Dessens
0.39 Gil Meche
0.38 Elizardo Ramírez
0.38 Greg Maddux
0.38 Taylor Buchholz
0.38 Chan Ho Park
0.38 Brandon Claussen
0.37 Chuck James
0.37 Esteban Loaiza
0.36 Ryan Madson
0.36 Salomón Torres
0.36 Daniel Cabrera
0.35 Bruce Chen
0.35 Cliff Lee
0.35 Josh Hancock
0.35 Jeff Weaver
0.35 Tom Glavine
0.35 Ervin Santana
0.35 David Wells
0.34 Dontrelle Willis
0.34 Shaun Marcum
0.34 Justin Verlander
0.34 Víctor Santos
0.34 Jon Garland
0.34 Nate Robertson
0.32 Adam Loewen
0.32 Chad Qualls
0.31 Eric Milton
0.31 Brad Radke
0.31 Derek Lowe
0.30 Oscar Villarreal
0.30 Oliver Pérez
0.30 Fernando Nieve
0.30 Enrique González
0.30 Jorge Sosa
0.29 Zach Miner
0.28 Tim Hudson
0.28 Doug Davis
0.28 Paul Byrd
0.28 Tim Wakefield
0.28 Roberto Novoa
0.27 Jamie Moyer
0.27 Jason Jennings
0.26 Ron Villone
0.26 Aaron Sele
0.26 Matt Morris
0.26 Wandy Rodríguez
0.26 Jarrod Washburn
0.26 Jake Westbrook
0.25 Luke Hudson
0.25 Woody Williams
0.25 Joe Blanton
0.25 Clay Hensley
0.25 Mark Buehrle
0.24 Casey Janssen
0.24 Jeff Francis
0.24 Barry Zito
0.23 Liván Hernández
0.23 Zach Duke
0.23 Anibal Sánchez
0.22 Mark Hendrickson
0.21 Tony Armas
0.21 Carlos Silva
0.21 Ramón Ortiz
0.21 Jon Lester
0.20 Paul Maholm
0.20 Jae Seo
0.19 Jaret Wright
0.19 Casey Fossum
0.19 Josh Fogg
0.18 Jeff Suppan
0.18 Kenny Rogers
0.18 Noah Lowry
0.17 John Thomson
0.17 Aaron Cook
0.17 Jeremy Sowers
0.17 Jason Johnson
0.16 Jorge De La Rosa
0.16 Kris Benson
0.16 Brian Moehler
0.16 Mark Mulder
0.15 Tomo Ohka
0.15 Kameron Loe
0.14 Sean Marshall
0.14 Sidney Ponson
0.14 Joel Piñeiro
0.13 Mike O'Connor
0.13 Ryan Franklin
0.13 Ruddy Lugo
0.13 Miguel Batista
0.12 Jake Woods
0.12 Pedro Astacio
0.12 Tim Corcoran
0.12 Julián Tavárez
0.11 John Koronka
0.11 Chien-Ming Wang
0.11 Jason Marquis
0.10 Gustavo Chacín
0.10 Jamey Wright
0.08 Horacio Ramírez
0.08 Mark Redman
0.07 Brad Halsey
0.05 Mike Thompson
0.05 Todd Wellemeyer
0.02 Runelvys Hernández
0.01 Chad Billingsley
0.01 Steve Trachsel
0.00 Brad Hennessey
0.00 Carlos Marmol
(0.01) Kirk Saarloos
(0.01) Shawn Chacón
(0.03) Scott Elarton
(0.07) Jeremy Affeldt
(0.09) Seth McClung

2007 KEEPERS

2006-09-21T21:50:00.000-07:00

THE PAYOFF PITCH Radio Show Notes
September 22, 2006
Contributed By: Ray Flowers

LISTEN LIVE, EVERY FRIDAY, 2-3 PM, EST
OR
CATCH THE SHOW ON PODCAST @ iTUNES

1. 2007 KEEPER MADNESS - OUTFIELDERS
(First Year)

1 Delmon Young (.356-3-10-12-2) – 20/20 as soon as next year?
2 Nick Markakis (.296-16-60-69-2) - .325-14-39-40 in 62 second-half games.
3 Chris Duncan (.304-18-38-53-0 in 247 AB) – Big-time power, also plays 1B.
4 Andre Eithier (.314-11-54-50-5 in 382 AB) – Slumped in second half, still well over .300.
5 Melky Cabrera (.286-7-49-73-12) – Quietly put up a strong rookie year.
6 Jason Kubel (.247-8-26-23-2) – Next year could easily hit .275-20-75.
7 Luke Scott (.382-8-30-24-2 in 170 AB) – Hasn’t stopped hitting since called up.
8 Chris Young, ARI (.250-2-9-8-2 in 60 AB) – All-around talent is breath taking.

2. 2007 KEEPER MADNESS - PITCHERS
STARTERS (First or second year)

1 Felix Hernandez (11-14, 4.68 ERA, 165 K, 1.39 WHIP in 179 IP) – Dominant in spurts, needs consistency.
2 Jered Weaver (11-2, 2.15, 96, 1.00 in 108.2 IP) – Never let up, is it stuff or deception?
3 Matt Cain (13-10, 3.99, 168, 1.25 in 178 IP) – 2.80 ERA, 1.11 WHIP with 88 K in 86.2 second half IP.
4 Scott Olsen (12-8, 3.87, 156, 1.27 in 172 IP) – Almost a K per IP.
5 Justin Verlander (16-9, 3.63, 121, 1.32 in 181 IP) – 4.61 ERA, 1.55 WHIP in second half.
6 Ian Snell (14-10, 4.67, 166, 1.45 in 181 IP) – Almost a K per IP, shot at 15 wins.
7 Annibal Sanchez (8-3, 2.90, 65, 1.15 in 102.1 IP) – No-hitter will drive up price.
8 Chuck James (10-4, 3.62, 80, 1.24 in 107 IP) – 6-2 with a 2.73 ERA last two months.

RELIEVERS (First or second year)
1 Huston Street (4-4, 2.88, 61, 0.99 with 35 SV in 65.2 IP) – Only his second season.
2 Jonathan Papelbon (4-2, 0.92, 75, 0.78 with 35 SV in 68.1 IP) – Will he start next year?
3 Chris Ray (3-4, 2.90, 49, 1.13 with 32 SV in 62 IP) – Quiet but effective in 2nd year.
4 Joel Zumaya (6-3, 2.00, 91, 1.18 with 1 SV in 76.1 IP) – Gas, gas and more gas.
5 Adam Wainwright (2-1, 2.92, 66, 1.10 with 1 SV in 71 IP) – 2007 closer for Cards?
6 Takashi Saito (5-2, 2.25, 95, 0.92 with 19 SV in 72 IP) – Will he close next year?
7 Taylor Tankersley (2-1, 2.95, 43, 1.42 with 3 SV in 36.2 IP) – If Borowski moves, does Tank close?
8 Cal Merideth (5-1, 0.82, 31, 0.73 in 43. 2 IP) – Better ERA and WHIP than Papelbon.

3. 2007 KEEPER MADNESS - INFIELDERS

CATCHER
1 Joe Mauer (.344-11-79-81-8) – No way he repeats…right?
2 Victor Martinez (.315-16-87-75-0) - .300 hitting catchers, there are only 2 guaranteed.
3 Brian McCann (.326-21-80-56-2) – More than just that Roger Clemens HR.
4 Michael Barrett (.307-16-53-54-0) – Missed time with fight, injury.
5 Johnny Estrada (.306-11-70-43-0) – Great bounce back from 2005 struggles (.261-4-39).
Others: Russell Martin (.285-10-59-59-10) – Will he keep stealing?
Kenji Johjima (.295-17-71-57-3) – Tremendous first season.
Ronny Paulino (.318-6-53-36-0) – More power, less average next year?

FIRST BASE
1 Albert Pujols (.328-46-128-112-6) – Best all-around hitter…period.
2 Ryan Howard (.312-57-140-101-0) – Ungodly power, what about an encore?
3 Lance Berkman (.312-41-122-88-3) – Also quals. at 1B, tremendous overall hitter.
4 Justin Morneau (.325-33-125-92) – Little chance he repeats the average.
5 Mark Teixeira (.270-28-98-90-2) ) – 30 Hr, 100 RBI still isn’t that bad is it?
Others: Conor Jackson (.285-13-71-68-1 in 446 AB) – Too much discipline to fail.
Adam Lind (.375-1-5-6-0) – Hit a combined .330-24-89-63-30 with a .950 OPS
James Loney (.261-1-8-16-1) – Hit .380-8-67-64-9 in 98 games at AAA

SECOND BASE
1 Chase Utley (.300-29-92-120-13) – Best at 2B, no questions remain.
2 Rickie Weeks (.279-8-34-73-19) – 20/20 possibility with health.
3 Brian Roberts (.290-9-52-79-35) – Less power, more speed.
4 Robinson Cano (.339-11-71-55-4) – Can he win a batting title?
5 Dan Uggla (.287-26-89-103-6) – The new Jeff Kent?
Others: Kaz Matsui (.252-2-21-26-7) – Hitting .338-1-14-16-5 in 22 games w/Rockies.
Howie Kendrick (.270-3-25-21-6) - .360 hitter in minor league career. Will also qual. at 1B next year.
Chris Burke (.282-9-40-54-11) – Will Biggio be back?
Josh Barfield (.283-12-55-67-19) – Outstanding rookie season.

SHORTSTOP
1 Jose Reyes (.299-19-77-119-57) – Best fantasy player in the game?
2 Derek Jeter (.339-14-95-110-32) – Best season in years.
3 Jimmy Rollins (.275-22-73-116-36) – Just a small step below Reyes.
4 Miguel Tejada (.327-22-94-95-6) – Never stops hitting regardless of teams record.
5 Michael Young (.315-14-95-89-7) – 200 hits four straight seasons.
Others: Freddy Sanchez (.346-6-82-84-3) – Also quals at 3B, has 19 GP at 2B.
Stephen Drew (.315-4-21-22-2 in 178 AB) – Full-time job is his next season.
Hanley Ramirez (.285-13-53-112-50) – Who woulda thunk it?

THIRD BASE
1 Arod (.284-34-116-106-16) – Still the best.
2 Miguel Cabrera (.338-25-110-108-9) Moves ahead of Wright with his average.
3 David Wright (.307-24-110-90-20) – Almost identical to last year (.306-27-102-99-17).
4 Garrett Atkins (.328-27-114-108-3) – Did you realize he was that good?
5 Aramis Ramirez (.291-35-111-87-2) – Huge second half: .332-19-59-47 in 65 games.
Others: Ryan Zimmerman (.283-19-99-81-11) – 100 RBIs as a rookie?
Esteban German (.342-3-29-39-7 in 240 AB) – Also OF, why didn’t Royals play him more?
BJ Upton (.246-0-7-17-10 in 142 AB) – 2nd overall in 2002, needs to field better 12 E in 40 games.

4. RAY’s NOTES - Fantasy Factoid, How About That?
Michael Young has 206 hits this year, his fourth straight season with over 200. Since 1940 only three other batters have accomplished this feat four years in a row: Wade Boggs (7 years), Ichiro Suzuki (six) and Kirby Puckett (four).

Ray Flowers, a member of SABR and the Fantasy Sports Writers Association can be reached with comments/questions or suggestions at: ray@fantasybaseball.com.

Baseball Mailbag - August 17th

2006-08-19T12:39:00.000-07:00

Contributed By: Ray Flowers

I'm in a 16-team keeper league in which each team keeps 5 players. I need help deciding on which 5 out of the following to keep: Albert Pujols, Jose Reyes, Carlos Lee, Grady Sizemore, Chad Tracy, Jon Papelbon, Ervin Santana, Jason Schmidt, and Brandon Webb. Any suggestions?
-- Ross, Chicago, IL

Here are the players in order that I would protect them.

1- Albert Pujols (.332-35-93-88-5). No reason need be given.
2- Jose Reyes (.299-14-59-98-49). Could end up the top fantasy earner this season because of the steals.
3- Grady Sizemore (.303-18-55-97-18). In a down year for the Tribe, Sizemore has not disappointed improving his AVG/OBP/SLG/OPS.
4- Carlos Lee (.294-30-89-77-14). Seven straight years of at least 24 HR and 80 RBIs, Lee has recorded at least 99 RBI the past three years.
5- ???

Chad Tracy is a fine hitter (.280-15-64-69-4), but he will only qualify at 3B next year, and he certainly hasn’t taken the next step this season. Papelbon (0.90 ERA, 0.75 WHIP, 31 SV) has been spectacular but the possibility of his returning to the starting rotation coupled with his relative lack of experience would lead me to shy away. E. Santana is intriguing but his career ERA is still 4.49, and it doesn’t figure to be helped by the American League. Jason Schmidt has had a very solid bounce-back season in San Francisco (3.00 ERA,1.18 WHIP, 140 K), but he is a free-agent rumored to be heading to Seattle this offseason, and I don’t generally think the AL is a good place to be for a SP. That leaves us with Brandon Webb, the man I would protect as the 5th guy on your keeper list. Webb has been great all year going 13-4 with a 2.77 ERA, 1.15 WHIP and a stupendous 4.17 K/BB ratio. In fact, Webb has 31 BB in 24 starts this year and other than a rough month of June (0-3, 5.08 ERA, 1.51 WHIP) has been “the man” all year in Arizona. That power sinker can be flat out dominating, and that’s what you want in a keeper.

I’m an need of runs and RBIs and in order to find that I’m looking to deal Carlos Delgado and Coco Crisp for Ichiro (I have Adrian Gonzalez at 1B). I would probably drop a spot or two in HRs, but think I could make up for it in SBs and maybe runs with this deal. What do you think?
-- Joe

First things first, I would be very happy to obtain Ichiro (.324-6-37-79-34) in any deal. Second, you might be able to pull off this deal if you point out the fact that Ichiro has been horrific in August (.194-0-2 in 14 games). Perhaps his owner will panic and want to move him. Funny thing with Ichiro is that he also “struggled” in April, maybe he hates months that start with “A”, hitting .287. This means that from May-July he hit .360, and there is no reason to think he couldn’t match that number the rest of the way. Plus, that speed would likely help you move up in the SB category as you suggested.

As far as giving up Delgado you certainly are in good shape at 1B since Gonzalez has come on so unbelievably strong of late. Since June 1st, in 65 games, Gonzalez has hit .332-15-40, numbers that surpass what Delgado has done since the same date (.245-11-40). Of course, with 26 HR and 74 RBI this season Delgado is very close to his 10th straight season of 30 HR and 90 RBIs, so you would be giving up a consistent power source, but I wouldn’t have a problem with this part of the trade at this point of the season.

The other player you would be giving up is Coco Crisp (.277-6-24-48-16). Crisp has played well since the all-star break hitting .291 with 8 SBs, but really, he is nothing more than a 3rd of 4th OF whereas Ichiro is a fantasy stud. With Gonzalez to cover Delgado, and Ichiro to replace Crisp, this trade makes total sense to me.

I'm in a keeper league and my friend sent me an offer: he is offering me C. Quentin, L. Berkman and E. Bedard for my G. Sizemore. Is this the deal of the century or should I keep Sizemore due to the keeper league status?
--J-K, Orange, CA

This IS the deal of the century. I spoke of Sizemore above, and while I love that guy for what he has done as well as the potential he still has to fulfill, let’s get serious for a minute here. Quentin, a first round draft pick in 2003, is a potential stud who is playing very well in his first exposure to the majors (.250-4-17-91- in 24 games). He has played so well in fact that there are rumors that the D’Backs are still interested in moving Shawn Green through the waiver-wire process to open up a full-time spot for Quentin. He may not be an all-star in the near future, but Quentin will definitely be a quality major league OF. The other OF you would be getting is Lance Berkman who, besides qualifying at OF and 1B for next season, is challenging for the NL MVP this year (.319-32-100-67-1). Sure he doesn’t have the speed of Sizemore, but his average will match the Cleveland outfielders and his power numbers will absolutely dwarf Grady’s.

Bedard has solid overall numbers on the season (12-8, 3.81 ERA, 125 K, 1.31 WHIP), but as we have discussed here previously in this column, he has been superb of late going 7-4 with a 2.55 ERA, 89 K an a 1.06 WHIP in his last 88.1 IP. Quentin and Berkman would be enough for me to deal Sizemore at this point. Considering the fact that Bedard is being thrown in you should immediately accept this offer and hope your league doesn’t veto the deal.

If you needed to fill an OF position and these were the best free agent guys available, who would you choose: E. Byrnes, C. Blake, J. Jones, S. Green, M. Thames, M. DeRosa?
--Mathew

Well, let’s go through them.

Byrnes (.281-19-50-63-17) has been a great 5x5 performer this year as a late round grab, but he has started to really flail in August hitting .218 though he does have 4 HR in 13 games. During his career, from August 1st on, Byrnes has hit .233-13-54-82-19 in 587 ABs. While those SBs are nice that batting average is not.

Blake has had a bounce-back season of his own (.310-16-51-45-6), though he has now been injured multiple times. Currently on the DL cause of an ankle injury, Blake is out for a couple of more weeks. Combine that with the recent play of Ryan Garko (.333-2-8 in 9 games) and Shin-Soo Choo (.317-2-15-7) and Blake’s playing time could be limited even when he returns.

Jacque Jones has solid overall numbers (.277-20-59-49-6) but his play of late has been lacking to say the least since he has produced merely a .204 batting average in 30 games since the all-star break.

Shawn Green is losing some playing time to Carlos Quentin (as mentioned above), and while Green has decent numbers (.281-10-49-56-4), his power has virtually disappeared with only 2 HR in his last 37 games.

Marcus Thames has totally fallen off the map since the all-star break hitting just .176 in 22 games.

All this leaves us with the obvious choice here, Mark DeRosa, who has turned out to be this year’s super-sub (DeRosa has played in 49 games as an OF, 26 as a 2B, 6 as a SS and 1 as a 1B). If that flexibility isn’t enough of an endorsement, how about his offensive numbers of .331-12-61-64-3. It is unfathomable to me how DeRosa is a free-agent in any league at this point of the season, especially after his 15 RBI week last week. Since the all-star break DeRosa has hit .331-8-32 in 31 games, so he is a must pickup if he is still available.

Ray Flowers, a member of SABR and the Fantasy Sports Writers Association can be reached with comments/questions or suggestions at: ray@fantasybaseball.com. Also don’t forget to listen to his fantasy baseball radio show at www.fantasybaseball.com, where you can call in for live advice, on Friday’s from 2-3 PM EST.

August Factoids

2006-08-19T12:24:00.000-07:00

Contributed By: Ray Flowers

1. Known as “Iron Man” because of his rubber arm, Joe McGinnity should have been known as “Wild Man” in 1900 when he set a single season record of 41 hit batters.

2. Known as a singles hitter by most most casual fans, where you aware that Ty Cobb finished in the 10 in OPS a record 20 times during his career (tied with Cap Anson)?

3. No one would be surprised to hear that Hank Aaron and Babe Ruth hold the all-time record with 18 seasons finishing in the leagues top 10 in HR. However, would you be surprised if you found out they were tied at 18 with a third man? Would you have guessed that man was Mel Ott?

4. Robin Roberts is a Hall of Famer, so isn’t it a bit surprising to hear that he holds the all-time record with 10 separate seasons in which he finished in the top 10 in the league in loses (tied with Early Wynn who went 300-244)? He did manage to finish his career with a 286-245 record.

5. From 1968-76 Tom Seaver struck out at least 200 batters per season. Why is that significant? Well, those 9 straight years of 200+ Ks is the longest streak in baseball history.

6. From 1908-1919 Walter Johnson had an ERA under 2.50 in every single season (a ML record 12 straight seasons). His ERA during those 12 years was 1.64.

7. From 1910-1916 Walter Johnson had an ERA below 2.00 in every season (a ML record 7 straight seasons). His ERA during those seven years was 1.56.

8. From 1903-1914 all Christy Mathewson did was win (327 Wins, 133 Loses), an average season of 27-11. In fact, he won at least 20 games in each of those 12 seasons to set the record for most consecutive 20 win seasons.

9. From 1992-2004, Barry Bonds hit at least 30 HRs in every season, a record 13 straight. During that span, Bonds averaged 47 per season.

10. Would it surprise you to learn that the record for consecutive 30 save seasons is only 8 by Trevor Hoffman (1995-2002)?

11. In 1912, Chief Wilson hit a major league record 36 triples (the 2005 ML leader, Jose Reyes, had 17). Almost as shocking as the overall number is the fact that Wilson’s second best mark in triples in a season was only 14.

12. 1931 was a good year for doubles as Earl Webb set an all-time single season record with 67. During the rest of his career, Webb’s second best mark was a paltry 30 in 1930.

13. In 1982 Rickey Henderson set a single season record with 130 SB. What is less known is that Henderson also set the all-time single season caught stealing mark that year when he was nabbed 42 times.

14. Miller Huggins fashioned himself as a basestealer stealing 20 or more bases on nine occasions. However he was the most discerning of runners. In 1914 he stole 32 bases but was caught 36 times.

15. Barry Bonds set a ML record with 120 Intentional Base on Balls in 2004. He also has the 2nd and 3rd best seasons as well (68, 61). The highest non-Bonds mark? Willie McCovey’s 45 in 1969.

16. Because he rarely takes a took a walk, Jose Reyes made a whopping 536 Outs in 2005, the 4th highest mark in baseball history (Omar Moreno had 560 Outs in 1980).

17. In 1993 Lenny Dykstra was the leadoff man for the Philadelphia Phillies batting .305-19-66-143-37. During that season he came to the plate 773 times, a major league record.

18. To say that fielders, techniques and equipment have improved over the years would be an understatement. In 2005 Edgar Renteria lead the majors with 30 errors, well off the all-time single season mark of 122 held by Herman Long (1889) and Billy Shindle (1890).

JULY FACTOIDS---HOW ABOUT THAT?

2006-08-02T09:16:00.000-07:00

1. In 1942, 41-year-old pitcher Ted Lyons starts 20 games, and hurls 20 complete games (14-6, 2.10 ERA). At the end of the season he joined the Marines.

2. Did you know that 1929 was the first year that players wore numbers on their jerseys? The team that came up with the idea? The Yankees of course (though in a twist, the Yankees game was rained out on opening day, so technically the first team to wear numbers in a game were the Cleveland Indians).

3. Five perfect games have been turned into no-hitters by errors: Walter Johnson (July 1, 1920), Bill McCahan (September 3, 1947), Dick Bosman (July 19, 1974), Jerry Reuss (June 27, 1980) and Terry Mulholland (August 15, 1990).

4. Did you know that Grover Cleveland Alexander has the record for most pitching Triple Crowns with four (W, K, ERA)?

5. Did you know that there have been two team with four starters who won 20 games in one season? Most people know of the 1971 Orioles with McNally (21 wins), Dobson, Cuellar and Palmer (20), but don’t forget the other team to have done so, the 1920 White Sox (Faber 23, L.Williams 22 and Cicotte and Kerr who won 21 each).

6. Did you know that there was once a man who pitched two complete games in one day? His name was “Iron” Joe McGinnity (apropos name huh) who accomplished the feat on August 1 1903 when he pitched both ends of a doubleheader for the NY Giants. Oh yeah…he won both games; 4-1 and 5-2.

7. Did you know that on June 23, 1917, Ernie Shore pitched a perfect game in relief of Babe Ruth (yes that Babe Ruth, when he was still a pitcher). Ruth walked the first batter of the game, then argued with the umpire, was ejected, assaulted the umpire, and was replaced by Shore. Immediately the runner tried to steal 2nd and was thrown out. Shore then retired 26 straight batters to complete the no-hitter (however the perfect game was lost because of the lead off walk). For the story see the Chicago Daily Tribune, June 24, 1917, p.A2.

8. Did you know on September 10, 1995, Greg Harris, a mustached journeyman pitcher, threw both right and left handed in the same game? He wasn’t the first pitcher to do this, Tony Mullane also accomplished the feat twice in 1892-1983.

9. Did you know that on June 12, 1970, Pirates pitcher Dock Eillis threw a no-hitter while he was wired on LSD?

10. Did you know that Joe Dimmagio’s 56 game hitting streak, the all time MLB record, wasn’t a career high? In fact, Joe D. hit in 61 straight games for the San Francisco Seals of the PCL league in 1933.

11. Did you know that the record for RBI in a game is 12, accomplished twice, once by Jim Bottomley (9-16-24) and the other time by Mark Whiten (9-7-93)?

12. Did you know Joe Sewell was the best contact hitter in major league history? He had 114 K’s…in his career…Sammy Sosa struck out 143 times in 2004! In fact, Sewell had those 114 K’s in 7,182 at bats, or one every 62.6 at bats.

13. Did you know that for one week Frank Howard was the best hitter ever? During the week of May 12-18, 1968, Howard managed to hit 10 HR over 6 games in only 20 at bats.

14. Did you know that 2 batting titles have been won by players who hit zero HR? Zack Wheat hit .335 in 1918, while Rod Carew hit .318 in 1972, but neither could manage a HR.

15. Did you know that Vince Coleman set the all time record for consecutive SB? From September 18, 1988 to July26, 1989, Coleman stole 50 consecutive bases without being caught.

16. Did you know that Norm Cash owes something to Beethoven? During what would become a Nolan Ryan no-hitter on July 15, 1973, Norm Cash, realizing the futility of trying to hit Ryan, brought not a bat to the plate, but a piano leg! He was ordered to return to the dugout to procure a bat prior to be allowed to hit.

17. Did you know that the worst team of all time wasn’t the 1962 Mets or the 2003 Tigers? The worst team of all time were the 1899 Cleveland Spiders of the NL. After losing 40 of their final 41 games, the Spiders finished the season with a 20-134 record.

18. Did you know that on October 9, 1920 Rube Marquard was arrested by an undercover police officer for scalping World Series tickets…for a game his own team was playing in!

19. Did you know that Babe Ruth’s career HR total is actually 715 and not 714? The reason for this is that prior to 1920, a “walk off” home run, if it created a winning margin of more than one run, was credited only as whatever hit would have produced the wining run. Therefore, on July 8,1918, Babe Ruth’s “walk off” HR was only credited as a triple. (His record still stands at 714 because MLB has decided to maintain the integrity of its records by allowing the ruling that was rendered to “stand” regardless of whether or not the rules were changed later.

20. The following pitcher actually threw no-hitters in games that they actually lost: Ken Johnson, (4/23/1964, Hou v Cin, 0-1, 9IP), Steve Barber (8 2/3 IP) Stu Miller (4/3/1967, Bal v Det, 1-2, 1/3 IP), Andy Hawkins (7/1/1990, NYY @ ChW, 0-4, 8IP), Matt Young (4/12/1992, Oak @ Cle, 1-2, 8IP).

21. Did you know that the longest relief outing in history was 18.1 innings by Zip Zabel of the Cubs on June 17, 1915? He got the win 4 to 3 after entering the game with two outs in the 1st inning.

22. How good was Babe Ruth? In the following years Ruth more than DOUBLED his next closest pursuer in HR: 1919 (29 to Cravath’s 12), 1920 (54 to Sisler’s 19), 1921 (59 to K.Williams and Meusal’s 24) and 1926 (47 to Hack Wilson’s 21).

23. In 2004 against his former team the Mets, Armadno Benitez had 11 saves, an all-time record vs. one team (13.1 IP, 1 ER, 12 K, 0.68 ERA, 0.30 WHIP, .091 BAA).

24. Russ Christopher is the only pitcher in ML history to have an ERA under 4 (3.82), a BB/9IP of over 5 (5.40) and a Win% below .300 (4-13 for a .235 Win%)..

25. There have only been three 3B whoever played who produced a single season of at least .325-40-100. They are Al Rosen (.336-43-135 in 1953), Ken Caminiti (.326-40-130 in 1996) and Adrian Beltre (.334-48-121 in 2004).

26. Everyone knows that Ichiro set the all-time single season hit record in 2004 with 262, but how many of you are aware that he also set the all-time single season record for singles that year with 225?

27. Barry Bonds set the all-time single season HR record in 2001 with 73, but did you know that despite all those homers he still finished 12 extra-base hits behind Babe Ruth’s single season record of 119 set in 1921?

28. When Barry Bonds set an all-time season record with 232 BB in 2004 he reached base 376 times…the second highest mark in history to the 379 times Babe Ruth reached base in 1923.

29. In 1917 Ray Chapman set an all-time single season record with 67 sacrifice hits…guess you would want him bunting in the 9th inning of a tie game.

30. In 1972 Nolan Ryan set a single season record by allowing only 5.26 hits per 9 IP.

31. In 2001 Randy Johnson set a single season record by averaging 13.4 K per 9 IP.

Mailbag Questions: July 28th

2006-07-27T18:56:00.001-07:00

MAILBAG – Week 17
Contributed By: Ray Flowers of www.FantasyBaseball.com

In my keeper league, I was offered Vladimir Guerrero for Grady Sizemore, should I accept it? I really like Sizemore and he's still only 23, but is Vlad too good to pass on?
-- A.J., Colorado Springs, CO

Wow, this is huge trade in a keeper league. Since I don’t know the rules of your keeper league, I will work under the assumption that your league allows you to keep either player for three years. Let’s start with Sizemore who was a stud last year going 20/20 with 111 runs while hitting .289. This season, Sizemore has slightly increased his average (.307), power (16 HR) and SB rate (15). More impressively, Sizemore is on pace to score 133 runs this year, a monster number, partly because he has upped his OBP almost .040 points from last season (.386). And as you mentioned, Sizemore is 23-years-old, so, as they say, the sky’s the limit with this guy. But what about Vlad?

With Vlad the most important number is 30. In 7 of the last 8 years he has hit at least 30 HRs and knocked in 100 runs. Come to think of it, Vlad has also scored at least 95 runs in 7 of the last 8 years as well (in 2003 he injured his back but still hit .330-25-79, not a bad “off” year huh?). In addition, Vlad owns a career average of .323, not to mention a career OPS of .970. Sizemore might hit .323 one day, but the chance of him producing even a single season of .970 is far from certain. To summarize, in 7 of the past 8 seasons Vlad has hit at least .305-32-108-95, numbers that Sizemore might be hard-pressed to ever match in a single season. Sure he will steal more bases than Vlad at his age, but is that enough of an incentive to count on him over Vlad? Oh yeah, I forgot to mention the most important “30” of them all for Vlad; he is only 30-years-old.

As much potential as Sizemore shows, hitters like Vlad come along once every 20 years. I would do this deal if I were in your shoes, even with the age discrepancy, which as we have seen isn’t all that great. Vlad’s overall game is just too much when combined with his amazing consistency and that fact that he is only 30-years-old.

I know that Kenny Rogers stinks in the second half, and with his performance this week (7 ER, 2 outs), I need to pick up a SP off waivers. Who would you recommend out of Gil Meche, Matt Morris and John Garland?
-- Kenny

Meche (9-5, 4.19 ERA, 106 K, 1.37 WHIP) had been on a solid streak of 7 games in 9 starts allowing 2 or fewer ERs. Of course, he isn’t that good, and he got lit up the other night (7 ER) to end that steak. Meche has talent, no dispute here with that, but it has simply never translated to consistent big-league success (career 4.61 ERA, 1.43 WHIP). Meche had a 1.60 ERA and 1.07 WHIP in June, fantastic numbers, but those numbers skyrocket to a 5.15 ERA and 1.48 WHIP in the other three months of the season, closely approximating his career numbers. He isn’t a long-term answer. Morris (8-8, 4.82 ERA, 75 K, 1.36 WHIP), like Meche, was great in June (3-1, 2.19 ERA, 1.19 WHIP) and has been pretty terrible the rest of the time (5-7, 5.86 ERA, 1.43 WHIP). Morris isn’t the answer here either.

That leaves us with last year’s darling, Garland (10-3, 4.78 ERA, 63 K, 1.36 WHIP). On the surface the numbers of all three of these pitchers are very similar. However, we have shown that Morris and Meche are really the products of their righteous June performances. Garland on the other hand has gotten better as the season has worn on going 6-1 with a 3.25 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP since June 1st. Sure, Garland will probably post fewer Ks than the other two hurlers, but with his recent hot trend, combined with the fact that he is on the strongest team in the White Sox (that is if they start winning again), the best bet at this point is Garland.

I was wondering what you thought of this trade offered to me. I get: Corey Patterson and Austin Kearns. I give up: Ryan Howard. I have Morneau at 1B, Howard has been my UT, and my current OF is S. Green, G. Matthews, Carlos Lee and D. Roberts. Your thoughts?
-- James, Brookfield, IL

I could see the need to improve your OF here, I would agree with that assessment. However, I wouldn’t suggest accepting this offer. With Morneau at 1B and Howard at UT, who is better than you in your league at those two spots? Howard (.282-32-80-51-0) has been great, though that is not to say I don’t have concerns about him considering he is second in baseball with 110 Ks and his batting average has gone down every month this season. Howard also has only 40 BB on the season, 33 less than Adam Dunn, the only man with more K’s than Howard this year (115). In addition, Howard has the worst GB/FB ratio (1.35) of any of he top 37 HR hitters in baseball, so there should still be some concern with Howard despite all the bombs he hits.

The two OFs you would be getting come with their own concerns. Patterson (.282-10-37-48-32) has been an amazing find this season, especially with those career-high tying 32 SBs. However, every player in the majors who has at least 15 SBs this year has an OBP better than Patterson’s .315 mark, so you have to figure he will either need to improve his OBP or he will simply begin to fall off in SBs (he has only 2 SBs in 19 July games). The reason is that he gets on base so infrequently that he has to steal a base around 50% of the time that he reaches first base. Also, Patterson still struggles against lefties hitting .220 against them in 85 ABs, so there is always a chance he will start to lose playing time in that situation.

Kearns (.268-17-51-56-8) has finally been injury free and with 45 ABs will record his first 400 AB season in the major leagues. The 8 SBs are nice, but his other numbers really aren’t that interesting to me nor should they be to you if you are going to be counting on him the rest of the way. Kearns’ batting average has gone down every month this year, and he is hitting just .200 since his trade to the Nationals. And therein lies another issue, his new situation in Washington. Besides moving from a great power-hitting park (Cincinnati) to one in the lower third of the league, the Nationals lineup is a mess. Alfonso Soriano will likely be traded and Jose Guillen is out for the year with TJ surgery, so depending on who they pick up at the deadline, it might just be Kearns, Nick Johnson and Ryan Zimmerman in the middle of that lineup, and that threesome isn’t scaring anyone. So if his injury history wasn’t enough of a concern for you, his playing situation should be. Pass on this deal.

I have a handful of players that I've been shuffling in and out of my line-up that I know have talent, but just haven't produced in several weeks or more (guys like JD Drew, F. Lopez, A. Kearns, C. Shelton, and K. Youkilis). I want to be patient because it is such a long season, but what should I do with these guys? Should I pick up someone like J. Barfield, S. Drew, J. Hermida, or C. Quentin?
-- Jason, North Brunswick, NJ

The age-old question of when is enough, enough? Let’s review all the guys you mentioned, and I will give you some quick thoughts on each.

J.D. Drew (.281-9-54-47-2) – Tremendous talent, always injured. Tough to count on.
Felipe Lopez (.265-10-34-60-25) – Terrific SB total but hitting only .241 since June 1st and now on a much less potent offensive team in Washington.
Austin Kearns – See my comments above.
Chris Shelton (.272-16-44-46-1) – Has worse numbers this year than last. Should have been cut 2 months ago. Since May 1st: .252-6-24-29 in 250 ABs.
Kevin Youkilis (.296-11-47-69-5) – Hitting only .232 with a .672 OPS in 82 July ABs.

As for the free agents.

Josh Barfield (.299-5-31-44-15) – One of the leagues hottest hitters in July: .438-1-9-12-6.
Stephen Drew (.282-0-2-3-1) – Craig Counsell is still at least 2 weeks away (ribs).
Jeremy Hermida (.303-4-18-26-4) – No one has noticed, but hitting .327 since June 1st.
Carlos Quentin (.357-3-7-5-1) – One of the D’backs top prospects. The D’backs are exploring a trade of either Shawn Green or Luis Gonzalez to open up a full-time spot for Quentin.

Ray Flowers, a member of SABR and the Fantasy Sports Writers Association can be reached with comments/questions or suggestions at: ray@fantasybaseball.com. Also don’t forget to listen to his fantasy baseball radio show at www.fantasybaseball.com, where you can call in for live advice, on Friday’s from 2-3 PM EST.

Mailbag Questions: July 28th

2006-07-27T18:56:00.000-07:00

First- Half All-Stars

2006-07-13T09:44:00.000-07:00

Contributed By: Ray Flowers of www.FantasyBaseball.com

With the all-star break wrapping up, I thought it would be appropriate to skip the mailbag this week and to spend some time detailing my first-half all-stars. Now these al-star lists are all over the place, so you’re probably sick of reading them, so I thought I would tweak things a bit. My all-star list is not a rendering of the best players in fantasy baseball. My list is a rendering of the out-of-nowhere all-stars of the first half. You know, the guys who you were “forced” to draft in the 23rd round of your draft because there was no one left. The guy who you grabbed because he played for your home team. Or the guy you drafted because he bares a slight resemblance to you and your significant other thought he was cute. Basically, these are the players that no one predicted much success for entering the 2006 season, but as we look back on the first half these guys have been difference makers.

First-Half, Out of Nowhere, All-Stars

1B Kevin Youkilis, BOS (.297-10-43-60-5)
The “Greek God of Walks”, as dubbed by A’s GM Billy Beane, has 55 BB through 88 games leading to a .407 OBP, the 15th best mark in baseball. Because of his ability to get on base, Youkilis has spent the majority of the season in the Red Sox leadoff spot and has scored 60 runs, the 23rd highest mark in baseball. Not bad for a guy with 287 career at-bats entering the season

2B Brandon Phillips, CIN (.306-7-44-42-16)
Don’t lie, you didn’t even have him on your draft list did you (I didn’t)? Phillips wasn’t even on a major league roster at the start of the season, though after his 17 RBIs in 7 games in April, someone surely picked him up. After 22 RBIs in April, he has just 22 in his last 218 at-bats, but his overall numbers are still stellar, especially that .306 average and those 16 SBs which are golden coming from a waiver-wire pickup.

3B Freddy Sanchez, PIT (.358-5-49-50-1)
As I wrote last week, this guy has been flat out amazing. He has suited up for 54 games at 3B, 14 at SS and 7 at 2B (he also played 58 games at 2B last year). Sanchez is hitting .3581, just barely behind Nomar Garciaparra’s .3582 for the NL lead.

SS Jamey Carroll, COL (.324-3-19-46-5)
I could have listed Orlando Cabrera who is coming off a streak of reaching base in 63 straight games (the longest streak since 1960), but Cabrera was drafted in most leagues whereas Carroll, I would venture, wasn’t drafted in a single 12-team mixed league in the country. Carroll is hitting .404 against lefties in 57 at-bats, and is hitting an equally impressive .383 at home in Coors Field.

C Josh Bard, SD (.369-5-20-17-0)
Bard was nothing more than an after thought this year. After only 7 games in Boston where he unsuccessfully attempted to catch Tim Wakefield, Bard was sent back to San Diego in a trade for Doug Mirabelli. Bard has hit like crazy when he has been in the lineup even posting a .997 OPS in limited appearances (130 ABs). Mike Redman is also worthy of mention here since he is hitting .357, meaning that Twins catchers are hitting a combined .372 (Joe Mauer is hitting .378).

OF Alexis Rios, TOR (.330-15-53-46-9)
Rios already has a career-high in HR, and is working on career bests in AVG/OBP/SLG/OPS. In particular, the OPS improvement really jumps off the page. In his career prior to this season his OPS was .711, while this year it’s .968. His leg injury makes his status for the rest of the way highly uncertain, but that doesn’t effect his spectacular performance thus far.

OF Gary Matthews Jr., TEX (.328-10-47-47-5)
Matthews has never hit over .276, knocked in more than 55 runs or scored more than 72 in a season. He is on pace to destroy all of those totals this year. The big difference for Matthews has been playing time as he is on pace for his first 500 AB season. It’s worth noting that Matthews entered the season with a career OBP of .327, and his batting average this season is .328 (with a .374 OBP).

OF Reed Johnson, TOR (.365-4-21-52-8)
Only 23 men who have ever played have scored over 100 runs in fewer than 425 at-bats, and Johnson is on pace to be the 24th this season. Johnson is hitting .333 vs. lefties, .394 vs. righties and .388 since June 1st. So tell me, why he isn’t in the lineup every day?

SP Bronson Arroyo, CIN (9-6, 3.12 ERA, 1.18 WHIP with 98 K in 130 IP)
Arroyo went from being a 5th starter/long reliever in Boston to a hitters paradise in Cincinnati and he has somehow excelled. Arroyo has been bombed his last two starts giving up 11 runs in 11.1 IP, not to mention 21 baserunners, but overall his numbers are fantastic. Arroyo is 6th in the NL in ERA, 7th in WHIP and 11th in K, all of this from a pitcher with a career 4.59 ERA and 1.36 WHIP entering 2006.

SP Justin Verlander, DET (10-4, 3.01 ERA, 69 K, 1.17 WHIP)
Verlander threw career-high 129.2 innings last season so his 110.2 first half innings are a slight concern. However, Verlander’s performance thus far has been brilliant with the 3rd best win total in the AL, the 5th best ERA and the 10th best WHIP. While he does own a decent 2.09 K/BB ratio, how is it that a guy who consistently throws over 95 mph averages only 5.6 K/9IP?

SP Brad Penny, LAD (10-2, 2.91 ERA, 82 K, 1.21 WHIP)
Penny is always an injury risk and because of those injuries he won only 16 games the past two years. Penny is healthy this year, and now he even started the all-star game. Penny hasn’t thrown 200 innings since 2001, he has thrown 108.1 innings thus far, and his WHIP over his last 295.2 IP is a solid 1.25.

SP Kenny Rogers, DET (11-3, 3.85 ERA, 65 K, 1.19 WHIP)
Uh, this one makes no sense at all. Well it sort of does. Rogers is strong in the first half, he is 22-7 with a 3.39 ERA and 1.28 WHIP over the last two years, before he collapses in the second half (10-10, 5.11 ERA, 1.57 WHIP). Will the trend continue this year?

SP Tom Glavine, Mets (11-2, 3.48 ERA, 82 K, 1.32 WHIP in 119 IP)
Glavine enters the break with 11 wins after his previous three relatively unsuccessful seasons in NY when he earned 9,11 and 13 wins. Glavine also has 82 Ks after averaging 99 the past three season’s, a strange development for a 40-year-old. Glavine has slowed tremendously in his last 46 IP with a 4.89 ERA and 1.67 despite a 3-0 record.

RP Darren Oliver, NYM (3-0, 2.15 ERA, 36 K, 0.97 WHIP in 50.1 IP)
Olive is one of the reasons the Mets are where they are, and NO ONE would have predicted that. This is a man who entered the season with a career ERA of 5.07 and a WHIP of 1.54 not to mention the fact that he didn’t even pitch in the major leagues last year. The only way he was drafted this year was if someone was related or they thought he was good-looking.

RP Takashi Saito, LAD (3-2, 2.14 ERA, 57 K, 0.86 WHIP with 8 SV in 42 IP)
Pitching in middle relief before being elevated to the closers role for the Dodgers, Saito has been a revelation. With a 5.2 K/BB ratio and a .172 BAA, Saito has been flat out dominant. If you remove the 5 earned runs he gave up in 1.2 IP on May 2nd and 4th his season ERA would be 1.12.

RP Jonathan Papelbon, BOS (2-1, 0.59 ERA, 47 K, 0.72 WHIP with 26 SV in 46 IP)
Papelbon has moved from being the 5th/6th starter in the Red Sox rotation to become the most dominant closer in baseball. Of all pitchers who have ever stepped on a major league hill the record for lowest ERA ever recorded in a single season by a pitcher with over 70 IP is 0.61 by Dennis Eckersley in 1990, a mark that Papelbon is currently challenging.

RP Akinori Otsuka, TEX (2-3, 2.13 ERA, 30 K, 0.92 WHIP with 17 SV in 38 IP)
After producing a decent follow up to his excellent rookie season for San Diego last year, Otsuka moved to the AL to pitch in an extreme hitters park in Texas. After Francisco Cordero struggled, Otsuka has stepped into the closers role and been amazingly efficient for the Rangers. Not bad for a player who most likely was on waivers at the start of the season.

RP J.J. Putz, SEA (1-0, 2.11 ERA, 58 K, 0.77 WHIP with 16 SV in 42.2 IP)
Thought to be no more than the 3rd option in the Mariners bullpen at the start of the season (behind Eddie Guardado and Rafael Soriano), Putz would likely be “the” story out of the bullpen if not for Papelbon. With 58 K and only 7 K, Putz has an unearthly 8.3 K/BB ratio while averaging 12.2 K per 9 IP. What does a guy need to do to make the all-star team?

Ray Flowers, a member of SABR and the Fantasy Sports Writers Association can be reached with comments/questions or suggestions at: ray@fantasybaseball.com. Also don’t forget to listen to his fantasy baseball radio show at www.fantasybaseball.com, where you can call in for live advice, on Friday’s from 2-3 PM EST.

Fantasy Factoids for June

2006-06-29T10:08:00.000-07:00

***To read the Fantasy Factoid on a daily basis visit FantasyBaseball.com, scroll down on the homepage and look for the Fantasy Factoid button.

JUNE
June 29, 1990: The only time in major league history that two pitchers hurled no-hitters on the same day. Dave Stewart no-hit the Blue Jays while Fernando Valenzuela no-hit the St. Louis Cardinals.

June 2, 1990: Randy Johnson pitches the first no-hitter in Mariners history in a 2-0 win over the Tigers.

June 3, 1932: Lou Gehrig hits 4 consecutive HRs (a fifth dies on the warning track).

June 4, 1916: In a PCL game between San Francisco and Oakland, Bill Prough pitches 10 hitless innings. In fact, he pitched 17 innings on the day without allowing a single run (he gave up 4 hits and Oakland ended up winning in 18 innings).

June 5, 1966: After a 5 for 5 day, Willie Stargell had a streak of nine straight hits over two days.

June6, 1999: Roger Clemens earns a loss against the Mets 7-2 as he loses his first decision after 20 consective wins.

June 7, 1944: Amidst his MVP season (he went 29-9 on the season), pitcher Hal Newhouser walks 9 men in 6 innings on the hill to lose 3-1 to the White Sox.

June 8, 1982: Dodger minor leaguer Sid Fernandez notched his third game of the season with at least 16 Ks. He also happened to pitch his second no-hitter of the year on this date.

June 9th, 1935: The Cardinals become the 10th team in major league history to score in every inning during a 13-2 victory over the Cubs.

June 10, 1996: Tim Wakefield, working on 2 days rest, allows 16 hits in an 8-2 Red Sox victory. Oh yeah, he happened to throw 162 pitches too.

June 11, 1999 Miguel Tejada hits 3 HRs making him just the 10 SS in history to do so.

June 12, 1916: A skinny pitcher steps to the plate and hits a PH homer, the first HR of his career. That pitcher was named Babe Ruth.

June 13, 1921: Umpires, for the first time, rub up game balls with special “dirt”. At that time it was supplied by A’s coach Lena Blackburne’s New Jersey farm.

June 14, 1952: Warren Spahn ties a NL record with an 18 K performance in a 3-1 loss to the Cubs. Spahn pitched 15 innings on that day.

June 15, 1998: Sammy Sosa hits three HRs in a 6-5 win over the Brewers to give him 15 HR in a 16 game span.

June 16, 1996: Mel Allen, the man who coined the phrase used to name this column, dies at age 83.

June 17, 1962: In a season to forget for the Mets, Marv Thornberry hit a triple in an 8-7 loss. Actually, his hit didn’t end up being a triple, it ended up being a single because he actually missed both second AND third base on his way around the bases.

June 18, 1941: The Giants and Pirates game is stopped in the 4th inning, not because of rain, but so that the patrons could listen to a broadcast of a boxing title fight between Billy Conn and Joe Louis.

June 19, 1927: Paul Wagner’s 23 hitting streak ends, a streak which included an NL record 14 straight games with and extra-base hit (he hit .380 with 131 RBI on the season).

June 20, 1929: Mel Ott finished with 151 RBI on the season, aided by the 3 RBIs he had on this date, giving him an RBI in 11 straight games (27 total during that span).

21. June 21, 1901: Harley “Doc” Parker surrenders 26 hits and 21 runs in his only game pitched in the 20th century for an ERA of 15.75 and a WHIP of 3.50.

June 22, 1932: The NL, following the custom established by the AL in 1929, finally mandates all player jerseys to require numbers.

June 23, 1964: Charlie Lau ties a major league record by earning two pinch hits in the same inning, the 8th, in a 9-8 victory for Baltimore over the Yankees.

June 24, 1993: After never having a multi-homer game in his entire life, Giants 2B Robby Thompson has his second straight 2 HR game during a 17-2 victory over the Rockies.

June 25, 1928: Freddie Lindstrom beats out 9 hits in a doubleheader against Philadelphia to tie a major league record.

June 26, 1966: For his second straight start, Sandy Koufax records a streak of seven consecutive strikeouts within a game.

June 27, 1977: With two homeruns in the 6th inning, Willie McCovey becomes the first NL player to have hit two HR in the same inning on two separate occasions.

June 28, 1939: Talk about power, the NY Yankees hit a total of 13 HR in a doubleheader against the A’s, a major league record, led by three each from Joe Dimaggio, Babe Dahlgren and Joe Gordon.

June 29, 1909: Walter Johnson gave up a HR to Ray Demmit. What makes that so interesting? Well, it’s the first HR Johnson allowed since his major league debut…in 1907.

June 30, 1996: Eric Young steals six bases in Colorado’s 16-15 win to tie a major league record.

MAILBAG, June 21st, 2006

2006-06-21T13:51:00.000-07:00

MAILBAG – Week 12
Contributed By: Ray Flowers of www.FantasyBaseball.com

OK, it's official. My first round draft choice was Mark Teixeira and he's stinking up the joint (relatively speaking). What's wrong with him?
-- Jake, Saratoga Springs, NY

Don’t worry Jake, I have received about 20 emails like this one in the past couple of weeks, so let’s address what’s going on with “Tex.”

Yes, Teixeira’s lack of power is disturbing, and no one seems to know why the HRs have suddenly dried up. Tex (.281-6-39-38) currently has a .435 SLG%, well off the .568 mark he posted the past two seasons. Tex also averaged 41 HR the past two seasons and he is currently on pace for only 14 this season, a paltry number that would be just barely more than half his career-worst total of 26 set in his rookie season. Tex is also on pace to drive in just 89 runs after knocking in an average of 128 the last two years. As has been expressed by the many letters I have received, some quite colorful I might add, this type of production from a first-round draft pick can be crippling to a fantasy team.

However, there are a few signs that you should not despair, well, at least not lose hope. Prior to the 2006 season, Tex had 361 K and 184 BB, meaning that he averaged 1.94 K per BB. Despite his struggles this year, Tex has greatly improved that ratio to 1.47 (56 K, 38 BB), so he is making better contact than he has in the past. In addition his batting average of .281 is almost spot on his career mark of .282, so he hasn’t lost anything there as well. Taking this comparison one step further, Tex has a .366 OBP in 2006, so do you want to guess what his career mark is? Try .362. So in the end Tex is making better drawing more walks, striking out fewer times, batting for the same average and getting on base at the same rate he always has which leads me to believe that in time, the HRs will return as well.

I'm in a 12-team h2h league. My pitching staff is very solid: Peavy, Schmidt, C. Zambrano, Contreras, B Myers, Oswalt, Street, Colon & Cliff Lee and I have been offered a trade of David Wright (I have Chipper Jones at 3B). My question is who do I trade for Wright, Contreras or Schmidt?
-- Pete, South Jersey

Pete, I’m gonna go against what the majority of people’s knee jerk reactions would be and say you should trade Jose Contreras despite his amazing start (7-0, 2.96 ERA, 60 K, 1.05 WHIP). Before you call in the men with the straight jacket, here me out.

(1) Contreras is, counting last season’s playoffs, 21-3 in his last 24 decisions. Is anyone really that good?
(2) In 2006 Contreras is averaging 6.35 K per 9 IP. Last season, that number was 6.78.
(3) Prior to 2006, Contreras had a 1.99 K/BB ratio. This season, that number is way up to 2.73, a substantial improvement. Will it continue especially since his K rate is down?
(4) This year his groundball to flyball ratio is 1.31, which is statistically an insignificant improvement over his 1.22 career mark.
(5) His batting average against on balls in play this year .235. Last year it was only slightly worse at .251.

So basically, if you look a little more in depth at the numbers, Contreras is essentially duplicating his level of production last year in numerous areas except for the fact that he is walking way fewer hitters (2.33 per 9 IP this year, 3.81 per 9 previously) while also striking our less. Does that sound like a recipe for his current level of domination? It sure doesn’t to me, especially when you add in one last number, 34, the “reported” age of Cuban defector Contreras. Even if it is his real age, 34 is pretty late in ones career to all of sudden find a new level of control while losing ones ability to dominate hitters with the strikeout. Plus, the law of averages say he wont go 16-0, which is his current pace, so I would trade him in a second to pick up David Wright (.330-15-55-45-10), the best all-around 3B in the fantasy game as of today.

Ray, would do you think of this trade of Chris Young for Brian Roberts? Our league counts K/9 and total Ks so I think Young is valuable but is he pitching over his head? Can Roberts stay healthy and keep swiping all those bags?
-- Andrew, Dallas, Texas

Since I don’t know the makeup of your team, I will just have to deal with these two players as if they were in their own universe with no other factors influencing our decision. Chris Young (6-3, 3.27 ERA, 75 K, 1.10 WHIP) has been a revelation for the Padres, but his success was not unexpected. Young moved from the AL to the NL, a big help to all pitchers of the world, but of even more significance was the fact that he moved from the AL park that gave up the most runs in 2005 to join the Padres who’s stadium, PETCO Park, was the most difficult NL park to score a run in last season compared to the league average. What is slightly surprising however is the fact that Young has already surrendered 14 HRs on the year after allowing only 19 last season. This is surprising because Young moved from the second easiest park in baseball to homer in (Arlington) to the most difficult one (PETCO), which means the numbers should be reversed from where they are.

Young has been unconscious in June posting a 1.42 ERA and 0.89 WHIP while holding batters to a .154 batting average, so of course, he has been pitching over his head recently. In fact, I should mention a few other points here that are noteworthy. (1) In his career Young has a 2.98 K/BB ratio, and this year that number is just 2.42. (2) Despite 75 K, his K per 9 IP of 7.9 is just barely above his 7.3 mark for his career. (3) Young has a ratio of 2.46 BB per 9 IP his first two years in the league and that number is up to 3.27 this year. So while his ratios look impressive, there are some signs that he is currently seeing better results than his peripheral numbers suggest he should be.

Roberts (.308-0-25-32-17) has been viewed as a bust by some because they were expecting a repeat of last season’s power numbers (18 HR, 73 RBI). Roberts, who suffered a shoulder injury at the end of last season that required surgery, has never been a power hitter as evidenced by his 12 HRs in 1502 ABs prior to the 2005 season. This season the real hurdle for Roberts has been a troublesome groin, and injury that he has apparently overcome considering the fact he has 8 SB in 19 June games. Roberts game is speed, and if healthy and batting at the top of the Orioles lineup, there is no reason not to expect the SBs to keep coming. Since the all-star break of the 2004 season Roberts has hit .307 in 1,064 ABs, so he should also be able to maintain that average as well which would lead me to say that of these two players, I would rather have Roberts on my roster in the second half.

I was offered Alex Rodriguez for Scott Rolen and Roy Oswalt. My other SPs are: J. Schmidt, A. Cook, J. Westbrook, Jamey Wright, D. Lowe and M. Batista. Should I accept?
-- John

John, based on your pitching staff I don’t think this trade makes much sense for you to accept. Schmidt (6-3, 2.84 ERA, 88 K, 1.09 WHIP) is an ace-like pitcher, but the rest of your rotation, if you were to trade Oswalt, is a hit-and-miss bunch of bottom of the rotation type guys who have a propensity, at one time or another, to give up a ton of hits and for that matter, runs. In fact, depending on the type of league you are in, I wouldn’t be surprised to find Cook, Wright and Batista on the waiver wire right now, so this is definitely not an area of strength on your team.

Rolen is hitting .343 on the year and he has been carrying the Cardinals with Albert Pujols out. Rolen is hitting an amazing .390 with 18 RBIs in 16 games in June, numbers that dwarf the struggling Arod’s in June (.220-2-7). However, you know the old adage of sell high and buy low, so now would be the perfect time to lure the Arod owner in with an offer of Rolen. I would say that if you can make the deal for Arod with Rolen and any of your other pitchers besides Oswalt or Schmidt I would do it. In fact, I would probably trade Rolen and any two of those other pitchers on your staff for Arod since you can assuredly pick up someone off your waiver wire to approximate the performances of those third tier pitchers you currently have.

Ray Flowers, a member of SABR and the Fantasy Sports Writers Association can be reached with comments/questions or suggestions at: ray@fantasybaseball.com. Also don’t forget to listen to his fantasy baseball radio show at www.fantasybaseball.com, where you can call in for live advice, on Friday’s from 2-3 PM EST.

Production, First Basemen

2006-06-14T20:35:00.000-07:00

Contributed By: Ray Flowers

Each week, for the next eight weeks on Wednesday, I will survey 6 players from each position whose performance is worthy of discussion. I will survey two players at the position who have failed to meet expectations, two who have greatly exceeded the numbers that were anticipated for them and then two players that are worthy of special attention the rest of the season. Some of the names on the list might be the reason that you are in 8th place in your league, while others whom you chose in the 22nd round of your draft might be the reason you currently sit in first place.

UNDER PERFORMING
Todd Helton (.277-4-18-26 in 155 AB)
Pace: .277-14-62-89-0 with a .861 OPS
Anything below .300 is pretty poor for a hitter with a lifetime .335 average. Of course, Helton was on the DL for a couple of weeks attempting to recover from an intestinal illness that had him in the hospital for a few days. Maybe I’m crazy, but this has to be temporary right? If you remove the month of May (.233-3-9), quite possibly the worst month of his last 7 seasons, he has hit .338 in 65 April and June ABs, right were you would expect him to be. Helton, a career .295 hitter on the road, is hitting a measly .241 this year outside of Coors. For that matter, his career .373 average at home is down to .316 as well. The bottom line is that even if the power is lacking, Helton hits .349 in his career in the second half with a 1.066 OPS, and every month of the season left he has hit at least .324 in his career. This may be the last time you can get him on the cheap.

Mark Teixeira (.299-6-30-33-0 in 221 AB)
Pace: .299-17-87-95-0 with a .859 OPS
This spot could of easily have been taken by Richie Sexson (.214-8-36-22-0) of the Mariners, but considering he was 4th to 6th round draft pick in most leagues, it made more sense to go with “Tex” who was a unanimous first round pick this season. After an amazing season of .301-43-144, Tex is on pace to have the worst power season of his career (his career-lows are 26 HR, 84 RBI). After hitting .334 with 30 HR at Ameriquest Field in 2005, Tex has bit but .252 with 4 HR this year in Texas. He has been hot of late hitting a scalding .414 in his last 11 games with 2 HR and 8 RBIs, but 6 HR and 30 RBI overall are a pathetic total for this proud slugger. Waiver wire pickup Brandon Phillips has 5 HR and 33 RBIs, and he plays second base! Teixeira is too talented not to pick it up, but he is gonna have to really hustle just to reach 30 HR and 100 RBI, totals that were a “given” at the start of the year.

OVER PERFORMING
Ben Broussard (.361-8-29-29-0 in 147 AB)
Pace: .361-25-90-90 with a .977 OPS
OK, let me offer some perspective here. Here are Broussard’s career-highs: .275-19-82-59 with a .858 OPS. So what in that line supports what he is doing thus far? Nothing is right. Let’s take a look at his three-year average: of .260-17-68-56 with a .795 OPS. In his career prior to 2006, Ben was a career .263 hitter vs. right handers (1112 ABs), but this year in that situation he has morphed into the second coming of Rogers Hornsby hitting .402 in 122 ABs. Broussard is also hitting .422 at home, .418 at night and .556 in June (10 for 18). There’s an awful long way to fall for a career .261 hitter who happens to be hitting .421 with RISP, so be careful about your expectations the rest of the way. Let’s hope he keeps it going, but if I were a betting man, I’m putting all my money, except for bus fare and enough money to buy some nachos, against this production continuing.

Kevin Youkilis (.317-7-27-42-3 202 AB)
Pace: .317-21-83-128-9 with a 936 OPS
Batting leadoff sure aided Youkilis’ numbers in the runs department, but now that Coco Crisp has returned from injury, Youkilis has been relocated at the bottom of the order which may help his RBI totals slightly, but his days of scoring almost a run per game are over. Youkilis has murdered Orioles pitching this year (.448-1-6) so much so that if you remove those 29 ABs from his ledger, his average drops all the way down to .295 on the season. It’s hard to take away from what he has done thus far, because in truth, he has been great. However, he entered 2006 hitting .265-8-44 in 287 ABs, so his improvement thus far has been sizable and one that doesn’t figure to continue. Only Derrek Lee, Albert Pujols, Travis Hafner, David Ortiz, mark Teixeira and Carlos Delgado amongst first basemen hit .300 with 20 HR, 80 RBI and 100 runs scored last year, and Youkilis’ name surely doesn’t belong anywhere near those names despite the pace he has currently set.

TWO TO WATCH
Shae Hillenbrand (.344-9-28-30-0 in 183 AB)
Pace: .344-28-87-94 with a .937 OPS
Guess who leads all 1B eligible players in average right now? That’s right. For a little perspective however, here are what Hillenbrand’s numbers looked like on June 1st last season: .320-6-26-37. Of course, this early season hitter faded to finish at a still respectable .291-18-82-91 line in 2005, but it just goes to show you that the hot start that Hillenbrand usually begins the season with always fades. A career .303 hitter in the first half, Hillenbrand slumps to .277 in the second, still a solid number, but because of his relative lack of power he is best served as being a CI or a UT in a deep mixed league. Keep that in mind before you get too giddy with his start, though he does still have the potential to hit .320-20-80 this year, so don’t totally discount him moving forward.

Chris Shelton (.293-11-28-26-0 in 191 AB)
Pace: .293-32-81-75 with a .908 OPS
I wrote an Impact Report earlier this year in which I pulled out my crystal ball and predicted a .290-29-95 season for Shelton (it was published on April 16th when he was hitting .571-7-14 in 9 games. See: APRIL 16th, Impact Report: Chris Shleton). At this point his pace has him right about on those marks, so why are people disappointed with his play? The simple answer is expectations. In his career before 2006, Shelton hit .288-22-74 in 162 games (524 ABs), so what he is on pace to do this year is slightly better than that. How could that make anyone upset or disappointed? The only way I could see that occurring is if you picked him up in a trade after the season began because if you missed his April (.326-10-20-17), you have gotten virtually nothing from your 1B position (.263-1-8-9 in 99 ABs). He started off unconscious, recently he has been horrible, but overall, a.290/30 HR pace from your 1B who was likely a waiver wire or late round pick should leave you with nothing to complain about.

CATCHERS REVEW

2006-06-05T15:30:00.000-07:00

PRODUCTION - THE CATCHERS
Contributed By: Ray Flowers

FANTASYBASEBALL.COM

Each week, for the next eight weeks on Wednesday, I will survey 6 players from each position whose performance is worthy of discussion. I will survey two players at the position who have failed to meet expectations, two who have greatly exceeded the numbers that were anticipated for them and then two players that are worthy of special attention the rest of the season. Some of the names on the list might be the reason that you are in 8th place in your league, while others whom you chose in the 22nd round of your draft might be the reason you currently sit in first place.

UNDER PERFORMING

Jason Kendall (.265-0-12-12-2 in 136 AB)
Pace: .265-0-45-45-8
OK, so Kendall isn’t the hitter he once was (career .301), but who would of thought he wouldn’t hit a HR for 14 seasons (well it isn’t really that bad, but he hasn’t hit one for the A’s in 737 ABs). So let’s see. Kendall no longer appears capable of even putting up 5 HR and he apparently can’t hit for average any longer either (.270 average for the A’s in those 737 ABs). Even worse is the fact that he is on pace for only 45 runs scored when he has average 80 the past three years. In addition, Kendall has never scored fewer than 59 runs in any of the 8 seasons in his career when he has amassed at least 450 ABs, so he has a ways to go to meet even the meager expectations most of his owners had for him this year. One note of possible encouragement: Kendall is a better second half hitter in his career with a .306 average (vs. 297 in the first half) and .800 OPS (.775) after the all-star game.

Jason Varitek (.239-5-24-22-1 in 142 AB)
Pace: .239-18-89-81-4
This one is more about perception than anything else. Sure Varitek is a career .271 hitter, so that average must, and should, improve as the season progresses (he has hit at least .266 in each of the last 5 seasons). While most C tend to wear down as the season moves along, Varitek’s second half “fade” is really pretty minor (in his career he has hit .275 with a .816 OPS in the first half, with second half numbers of .264/.785). While his average is lagging, the 89 RBIs and he 81 Runs he is on pace to produce this year would both be career-highs. So don’t make the mistake of thinking he is really having a poor season except in the batting average category where he is, cause he is actually doing pretty darn well otherwise.

OVER PERFORMING

Mike Redmond (.417-0-8-4 in 48 AB)
Pace: .417-0-77-38
In April Redmond hit .375 and then he has upped that mark to a ridiculous .458 in May. Further proof of his amazing start can be seen in his home/road splits: .417 average with a .942 OPS at home in 24 ABs, .417 with a .962 OPS on the road in 24 ABs. Need some more numbers? How about a .500 average vs. lefties (22 ABs) and a .346 mark vs. righties (26 ABs). How about a .429 average indoors and a .400 average outside. Now before you totally dismiss his start, you should realize that Redmond is a career .291 hitter, so he should continue to have some value even when his unbelievably hot start ceases.

Josh Bard (.361-5-14-11-0 in 61 AB)
Pace: .361-27-76-60
After an average start this year which included a .278 average with zero RBIs in 18 April ABs, Bard has blown up in May (.395-5-14-9). Obviously he is the number two option in San Diego behind Mike Piazza, but Piazza has been struggling a bit overall (.256-7-18-12), though he too has really hit well in May (.317-4-12 in 62 ABs). Bard’s playing time will be erratic and no matter how well he hits he doesn’t figure to supplant Piazza behind the dish this year. Entering 2006 Bard was a career .238 hitter with 13 HR an 61 RBIs in 485 career ABs so he should continue to be a solid hitter and worthy of a secondary catcher’s role on most rosters even if he continues to serve as Piazza’s backup.

TWO TO WATCH

Greg Zahn (.333-5-16-9-0 in 78 AB)
Pace: .333-28-91-51
I for one, was fairly certain that Zahn would not be able to duplicate his 2005 numbers (.251-11-61-61). First off, the Jays acquired Bengie Molina so there was every reason to think Zaun wouldn’t see much time wearing the tools of ignorance (Molina is hitting .285-4-14-13 in 130 ABs this year). Second, Zaun entered the year as a 35-year-old C, and that is not a good age to be when you pull on the shin guards. Third, Zahn’s 2005 season was a career year in his 12th season, not exactly something that gave me the warm and fuzzies. Flash forward to May 30th, and Zaun is exceeding the pace he established last year. Now I will make this statement: if Zaun reaches his projected totals this year, I will physically eat a baseball, that’s how certain I am that his current production is a total fluke. However, it doesn’t negate what he has done, and there is still a chance that he could match last years power numbers while improving his batting average. On the downside, June has been the worst month of his career as a hitter with a .216 average in 477 ABs, so there is a good chance his slide toward mediocrity is about ready to begin.

Jason LaRue (.197-3-9-7-0 in 71 AB)
Pace: .197-18-54-42
LaRue started the season on the DL after having minor knee surgery, and Javier Valentin, last years hitting hero in Cincinnati, was thrust into the lineup with generally poor results (.230-1-6-11 in 74 ABs). Basically, to this point of the season, neither C has distinguished himself on the offensive side of the game. However, LaRue is still on pace to have his fifth straight season of at least 12 HR and 50 RBIs, numbers that don’t sound too special until you realize that only three major league catchers have reached those numbers in each of the last 4 seasons; Ivan Rodriguez, Jorge Posada and Jason LaRue. In his career, LaRue has better numbers in the second half in AVG/OBP/SLG/OPS, and while his average isn’t great, he is a career .242 hitter overall so he surely has room to improve there as well.

Fantasy Baseball Mailbag, May 19

2006-05-19T10:15:00.000-07:00

MAILBAG – Week 7
Contributed By: Ray Flowers of FantasyBaseball.com

I have a trade offer of Furcal and Zito for Ordonez and Glavine. I currently have Peralta at SS but the back of my rotation is a bit spotty (Bush, Juan Cruz and the injured Bartolo Colon). My OF consists of Ordonez, Crawford, Hawpe and Rios. Would you make this trade under these circumstances?
--Phillip, Poland

I wrote about my thoughts regarding Furcal last week, and he has really turned things on of late with 13 hits in his last 40 ABs for a .325 average. The other player on this side of the trade is Barry Zito, and while he is 3-3, he still has a 3.27 ERA and a 1.20 WHIP. Zito has held batters to a .214 batting average, good for second in the AL, continuing a career long trend of dominating hitters (.227 BAA for his career). Even more impressive about his start this year is the fact that Zito followed a career-long trend of April struggles (5.93 ERA, 1.24 WHIP this year, compared to his career numbers of 5.04 ERA, 1.39 WHIP), only to pull an amazing rebound in May: 0.65 ERA, 1.16 WHIP in 4 starts.

Magglio Ordonez (.298-10-26-23) has had a great rebound to an injury filled past two years. Despite all his injuries, Ordonez performance on the field in 2004-05 was still pretty solid except for a bit of a downturn in his power: .298-17-83-70 in 507 ABs. How quickly people have forgotten that from 1999-2002 Ordonez hit at least 30 HR with 110 RBIs each year. Combine that power with the fact that Ordonez owns a career .306 average, and you a hell of a player if healthy. Glavine (6-2, 2.43 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, 47 K in 59.1 IP) has been out of his mind so far this season. Glavine has 8 quality starts (6 IP, 3 ER or less) in 9 trips to the hill, but even more impressive is his 7.1 K per 9 IP ratio. Why is this impressive? Well, Glavine has a career K per 9 IP mark of 5.4 and hasn’t had a ratio over 7 since 1994. Glavine is also holding batters to a .210 average, he hasn’t held batters to less than a .240 average since 1998, so he’s pitching as if he is 29-years-old. Bottom line is that 39-year-olds that throw 84 mph can’t be this good, so a fall is imminent, especially when you compare his performance thus far to what he has done the past three years.

I agree with you that your rotation could use some help, but because you already have Peralta at SS and the fact that your OF depth is minimal and would be greatly compromised with the loss of Ordonez, I think in your case it would be wise to turn this trade offer down even though in a vacuum I would rather have Furcal and Zito.

I’m in a 10-team league. Do you think Hanley Ramirez can keep up is run production? If so, is it worth dropping Bobby Crosby to pick him up?
-- Scott, Washington, IN

To tell you the truth, I’m shocked he has held on this long. The fact that he is still on waivers proves the point that others in your league are rightly concerned as well. There was a lot of talk in the offseason that Ramirez (.331-2-16-35-11) might earn a spot in Boston’s lineup before he was traded to Florida, but most of the talk focused on his glove and not his bat. Ramirez, only 22-years-old, does own a career .302 minor league average, but he hit only .271-6-52-66-26 in AA last season, hardly numbers that would lead you to think he would be the second best fantasy SS in the NL at this point (behind Felipe Lopez). Ramirez is currently on pace to hit .333-9-72-153-45, a season that no SS in history has ever attained, so no, he will absolutely not continue to keep up his current level of production (the only player ever to reach all of those numbers in one year was Hugh Duffy in 1894). That being said he will continue to have value because of his SB potential, but his batting average could take a huge tumble, and those runs will dry up as well, meaning that he is a huge gamble the rest of the way.

As for Crosby (.228-5-15-16-1), he has traditionally been a bit of a slow starter with a career average of .240 in April and May before heating up in June to hit .337, his best total in any month. Crosby has struggled with injuries yet again this year, so its difficult to know what to expect long-term. In 2005 he did improve in AVG/OBP/SLG/OPS over his rookie year, so it would appear that he is heading in the right direction. At this point I wouldn’t dump the struggling Crosby to pick up Ramirez, especially since Ramirez performance will likely decline with his recently injured shoulder.

My OF is Chad Tracy, Xavier Nady and Gary Sheffield. Now with Sheffield on the DL I really need a big bat. I received on offer in which I give up A-rod and get back Troy Glaus and Carlos Lee would you do the trade?
-- Judah, Toronto Ontario

Well these sure are some “big bats.” Traditional wisdom would say you don’t trade the best fantasy performer of the past 10 years, especially when he plays 3B. However, this is an intriguing offer worthy of consideration.

As if I need to mention numbers with Arod (.273-9-29-33-4) I will mention just this one fact: over the last 8 years he has hit at least 36 HR with 106 RBIs and 110 Runs every year. Troy Glaus (.265-12-32-34-1), the power-hitting 3B of the Blue Jays, does provide big power when healthy (he was hit on the elbow and removed from the game on Tuesday). Glaus has had at least 29 HR and 79 RBI every year he has had 500 or more ABs, but Glaus has never had a single season of 36 HR, 106 RBI and 110 Runs, while Arod has done it 8 straight years. Throw in the fact that Glaus has a career average of .254 and the fact that he has played fewer than 100 games in two of the last three seasons and you can see you would be losing a tremendous amount at 3B.

But this is a two-player offer, and that second played, Carlos Lee, is a fantastic hitter in his own right. Lee (.297-15-33-30-3) has hit at least 24 HR with 80 RBIs the past six seasons and has upped those numbers with three straight seasons of at least 31 HR and 99 RBIs heading into 2006. Over the last three years he has also averaged 14 SBs per season as well, marking him as one of the top 10-15 OFs as far as all-around fantasy impact.

Would I make this trade? No. Is it a horrible move to make if you were to accept it? No.

My brother and I differ in our opinions of Scott Kazmir, specifically as to when, and not if, he will perform at a Cy Young type level. His walks are down this year, and only his control has held him previously. I think he can give Johan Santana a run for #1 SP in the AL this year, what do you think?
-- Brandon Tampa, FL

As much as I like Kazmir (6-2, 2.73 ERA, 1.38 WHIP) he belongs nowhere near Santana unless they happen to be standing next to one another on the outfield warning track while they are running windsprints prior to a game. Kazmir has indeed done a better job of keeping his balls over the plate, but he still has 20 BB in 56 IP (3.2 per 9 IP) and is allowing batters to hit .264 off him this year (compared to a .250 average coming into the season). On the plus side Kazmir has 56 K in 56 IP to give him strikeout per inning to go give him a solid 2.8 K:BB ratio.

To compare, Santana has a 4.6 K:BB ratio the past 3 years (he has upped the mark to 5.4 this year), well beyond what Kazmir is doing. Kazmir does have a light chance to rival Santana in K per 9 IP (9.0 for Kazmir, 10.3 for Santana), but while Santana has a career WHIP of 1.13, Kazmir has but a single month in his two plus seasons in which he has bettered that number (he has a 1.12 mark in three starts in May). Kazmir is 13-4 since the all-star break last year, Santana is 13-6, so there is a definite chance that we are witnessing Kazmir turn the proverbial corner, but I need more than 4 months to think he can even hold Santana’s jock. Check back with me in October, I will bet the answer to your question will be clear then, and it will be wait until next year.

Ray Flowers, a member of SABR and the Fantasy Sports Writers Association can be reached with comments/questions or suggestions at: ray@fantasybaseball.com. Also don’t forget to listen to his fantasy baseball radio show at www.fantasybaseball.com, where you can call in for live advice, on Friday’s from 2-3 PM EST.

Stolen Base Runs

2006-02-21T13:22:00.000-08:00

To read the full-story see: STOLEN BASE RUNS

Pete Palmer’s Linear Weights, akin to Bill James Win Shares, attempts to measure a players overall ability by taking into account everything the player does in all phases of the game including; pitching, hitting, fielding and baserunning. Stolen Base Runs is the base running component of the formula, an it is the focus of this article (to see a full description of the massive formula used for Linear Weights, see TOTAL BASEBALL, 8th Edition, pp.2668, 2670, 2673-4. One other note; Linear Weights has now been renamed Total Player Wins).

Historically the numbers used in Palmer’s formula were .30 for SB and -.60 for CS, but subsequent research has determined that .22 for SB and -.45 for CS is more accurate, so therefore the numbers that I will use in this study.

([.22*SB] – [.45*CS])

Here are the expnaded 2005 SB Runs leaders for MLB (all players with 5+ SB).

Name SB RUNS
Carl Crawford 6.52
José Reyes 6.45
Jimmy Rollins 6.32
Chone Figgins 5.99
Alfonso Soriano 5.70
Rafael Furcal 5.62
Juan Pierre 4.89
Jason Bay 4.17
Orlando Cabrera 3.72
Tony Womack 3.69
Ichiro Suzuki 3.66
Julio Lugo 3.63
Johnny Damon 3.51
Kenny Lofton 3.49
Ryan Freel 3.42
Bobby Abreu 2.77
Scott Podsednik 2.63
Reggie Sanders 2.63
Willie Bloomquist 2.63
Albert Pujols 2.62
Craig Counsell 2.57
Willy Taveras 2.53
Joe Mauer 2.41
Mike Cameron 2.41
Vladimir Guerrero 2.41
Damian Jackson 2.40
Rickie Weeks 2.40
Adam Kennedy 2.38
Nook Logan 2.36
Chase Utley 2.17
Marcus Giles 2.17
Joey Gathright 2.15
Craig Biggio 1.97
Derrek Lee 1.95
Álex Rodríguez 1.92
Torii Hunter 1.91
Omar Infante 1.76
Emil Brown 1.75
Cliff Floyd 1.74
Matt Holliday 1.73
Jayson Werth 1.52
Russ Adams 1.52
So Taguchi 1.52
Miguel Cairo 1.51
Royce Clayton 1.51
Adam Everett 1.47
Brian Roberts 1.44
Eric Chávez 1.32
Damon Hollins 1.31
Gary Sheffield 1.30
Héctor Luna 1.30
Cory Sullivan 1.29
Aaron Rowand 1.27
Bill Hall 1.26
Jason Repko 1.10
Khalil Greene 1.10
Orlando Hudson 1.09
Pete Orr 1.09
Pete Orr 1.09
David Newhan 1.08
Gary Matthews Jr. 1.08
Carlos Lee 1.06
Jacque Jones 1.06
Corey Patterson 1.05
Tadahito Iguchi 1.05
Carlos Beltrán 1.04
John McDonald 0.87
Kazuo Matsui 0.87
Marlon Anderson 0.87
Milton Bradley 0.87
Darin Erstad 0.85
Willie Harris 0.85
Derek Jeter 0.83
Omar Vizquel 0.78
Bubba Crosby 0.65
Chipper Jones 0.65
Marlon Byrd 0.65
Miguel Tejada 0.65
Moisés Alou 0.65
Shea Hillenbrand 0.65
Álex Cora 0.64
Eric Bruntlett 0.64
Eric Byrnes 0.64
Mark Teahen 0.64
Miguel Olivo 0.64
Tony Graffanino 0.64
Aaron Boone 0.63
Junior Spivey 0.63
Maicer Izturis 0.63
Antonio Pérez 0.62
Jermaine Dye 0.62
Brian Giles 0.61
Coco Crisp 0.60
David Wright 0.59
Bernie Castro 0.42
Jason Lane 0.42
Jeff Kent 0.42
Víctor Díaz 0.42
Craig Monroe 0.41
Jason Kendall 0.41
Vernon Wells 0.41
Jason Ellison 0.38
Grady Sizemore 0.34
Marco Scutaro 0.20
Michael Young 0.20
Trent Durrington 0.20
Iván Rodríguez 0.19
Jack Wilson 0.19
Édgar Rentería 0.18
Raúl Ibañez 0.18
Lew Ford 0.16
Felipe López 0.15
Ray Durham -0.03
Eric Hinske -0.04
Mark Loretta -0.04
Neifi Pérez -0.04
Rob Mackowiak -0.04
Shawn Green -0.04
Shawn Green -0.04
Steve Finley -0.04
Pablo Ozuna -0.07
Matt Lawton -0.09
Álex González -0.25
Andruw Jones -0.25
Brad Ausmus -0.25
David Dellucci -0.25
Larry Bigbie -0.25
Cristian Guzmán -0.26
Melvin Mora -0.26
Travis Lee -0.26
Jonny Gomes -0.27
Chris Burke -0.28
Jeff DaVanon -0.28
Luis Matos -0.31
Dave Roberts -0.34
Clint Barmes -0.48
Álex Sánchez -0.49
Jeromy Burnitz -0.70
Ángel Berroa -0.71
Shannon Stewart -0.71
Nick Punto -0.74
Randy Winn -0.77
Juan Encarnación -0.93
Mark Grudzielanek -0.94
Luis Castillo -0.95
Álex Ríos -0.97
David DeJesús -1.15
Jim Edmonds -1.15
Mark Kotsay -1.15
Brandon Inge -1.16
Eric Young -1.16
David Eckstein -1.18
Preston Wilson -1.38
Aubrey Huff -1.39
Reed Johnson -1.60
Morgan Ensberg -1.83
César Izturis -1.84
Jerry Hairston Jr. -2.29
Jeremy Reed -2.31
Brad Wilkerson -2.74
Brady Clark -3.65

2006 FANTASY BASEBALL GUIDE

2006-02-08T08:48:00.000-08:00

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2005 MVP Voting

2005-10-13T13:10:00.000-07:00

***This story can also be read at www.fantasybaseball.com.

One Man’s MVP Ballot
Contributed By: Ray Flowers

OK, so MLB isn’t knocking my door down looking for my thoughts in the 2005 MVP races, but that never stopped me before. Here is my MVP ballot, one that I hope makes sense to all of you even if you don’t necessarily agree with my conclusions.

AL MVP

Candidates: David Ortiz, Alex Rodriguez and Manny Ramirez

DAVID ORTIZ (.300-47-148-119-1)“Big Papi” is widely regarded as the heart and soul of the Red Sox. Seemingly always coming through with a clutch hit Ortiz lead the AL in RBI, was 2 nd in HR and 3 rd in Runs. One huge negative against him is that he played only 10 games at 1B this year.

ALEX RODRIGUEZ (.321-48-130-124-21)
The leader of the Yankees offense, Arod bounced back after his worst full-season last year setting an all-time Yankees record for HR by a right hander in 2005 (46 by Joe D. was the old mark). Arod led the AL in HR, was 2 nd in AVG and finished 4 th in RBI. Arod is also in line to win a Gold Glove this year with an excellent defensive season in the books.

MANNY RAMIREZ (.292-45-144-112-1)
Often overlooked with the Big Papi fervor in Boston, Manny had his 2 nd consecutive 40 HR 130 RBI season and 4 th of his career (ties Ken Griffey Jr. and Sammy Sosa for most such seasons amongst active players). Finished 2 nd to teammate Ortiz in RBI, was 3rd in HR, and 7 th in Runs in the AL.

ANALYSIS

Let’s compare the three men in the following offensive categories:

AVG-HR-RBI-Runs-SB-OBP-SLG-OPS

Ortiz – .300-47-148-119-1 with .397/.604/1.001

Arod – .321-48-130-124-21 with .421/.610/1.031

Ramirez – .292-45-144-112-1 with .388/.594/.982

Listed below is each man’s ranking amongst AL hitters.

Ortiz – .300 (14 th), 47 HR (2 nd), 148 RBI (1 st), 119 Runs (3 rd), .397 OBP (4 th), .604 SLG (2 nd), 1.001 OPS (3 rd)

Arod – .321 (2 nd), 48 HR (1 st), 130 RBI (4 th), 124 Runs (1 st), .421 OBP (2 nd), .610 SLG (1 st), 1.031 OPS (1 st)

Ramirez – .292 (22 nd),45 HR (3 rd), 144 (2 nd), 112 Runs (7 th), .388 OB (7 th), .594 SLG (4 th), .982 OPS (4 th)

If you add up those rankings, with the lowest number being the best, here is what you get:

Ortiz – 27
Arod – 12
Ramirez – 49

Much like Andruw Jones in the NL, Ortiz has been billed as the ultimate “clutch” performer this year, so let’s look at the numbers to see if that belief is supported by fact.

Ortiz
Runners on base: .315 with a 1.006 OPS
RISP: .352 with a 1.043 OPS
RISP with 2 Outs: .368 with a 1.226 OPS
* 289 AB with runners on base produced 119 RBI, or one RBI per 2.43 AB.

Arod
Runners on base: .305 with a .957 OPS
RISP: .290with a .894 OPS
RISP with 2 Outs: .302 with a .940 OPS
* 305 AB with runners on base produced 103 RBI, or one RBI per 2.96 AB.

Ramirez
Runners on base: .346- with a 1.182 OPS
RISP: .358 with a 1.244 OPS
RISP with 2 Outs: .301 with a 1.063 OPS
* 280 AB with runners on base produced 131 RBI, or one RBI per 2.14 AB.

Well, Ortiz sure was a clutch hitter, an a fantastic one at that, but look at his teammate Ramirez. Manny averaged an RBI every 2.14 AB with a runner on base!!! I know it might be taboo to say, but the best “clutch” hitter in Boston this year was the aloof LF Manny Ramirez and NOT Big Papi!

How about their September/October performance?

Otiz hit .321-11-30-20
Arod hit .330-8-25-26
Ramirez hit .309-12-29-21

One last area we need to cover, and that is defense. Arod will probably win the Gold Glove this year after committing only 12 errors all year. Manny, well he is a pure adventure out there playing the Green Monster, but at least he is out there. Ortiz played 1B in only 10 games this year, and I don’t care how good a hitter he was, he only played half of the game, and that just isn’t what an MVP should do (there are gloves for a reason). Plus, his hitting was almost exactly matched by Ramirez in every category including “clutch” hitting, so I just don’t see how the voting should lean toward Ortiz.

RESULTS

4. Travis Hafner. (.305-33-108-94-0 with a 1.003 OPS). Just like Ortiz, Hafner failed to play half the game appearing in but a single game this year in the field. Led the Indians late charge with 11 HR and 26 RBI in September.

3. David Ortiz. Teammates Ortiz and Ramirez will probably split some of the votes since they should be considered the 2 nd and 3 rd best hitters in the AL this year. Ortiz just can’t win the award, he doesn’t play defense. Even the often-lost Ramirez gives it a shot.

2. Manny Ramirez. Quietly just as productive as the man who gets all the publicity in BOS, is this the quietest 144 RBI ever? With the game on the line this is the Red Sox I would want at the plate, and the numbers support that view.

1. ARod. Undoubtedly the best all-around player in the game, this is the type of performance that should result from the largest contract in the game. If Arod doesn’t win the award this year, an I can’t believe I’m saying this since I despise the guy, he will have been robbed worse than that poor slob who Bill Gates stole the DOS operating system from all those years ago.

NL MVP

Candidates: Andruw Jones, Albert Pujols and Derrek Lee

ANDRUW JONES (.263-51-128-95-5)
Unquestionably the best defensive player under consideration, Jones posted career highs in HR and RBI this year leading the NL in both categories. Jones is often credited with leading an injury depleted Braves team to the playoffs, and while there is no disputing the fact that he was often protected by less than “seasoned” major league players, should this really be a deciding factor in the race?

ALBERT PUJOLS (.330-41-117-129-16)
Pujols lead the NL in Runs, was 2 nd in AVG and 3 rd in HR while leading all 1B in SB with 16 (his previous career high was 5). Much has been made of Jones leading a Braves team with little offensive help, but were the Cardinals really a better offensive team this year? I mean the last time I looked Scott Rolen played in only 56 games, Jim Edmonds had his worst season since coming to St. Louis, Reggie Sanders suffered multiple injures limiting him to only 93 games and Larry Walker could only be found in the trainers room for large portions of the season (100 games). Does that really give Pujols a “better” lineup hitting around him than Jones?

DERREK LEE (.335-46-107-120-15)
The talk of a Triple Crown died as the season progressed, but no Cub fan or fantasy owner of Lee could complain. Easily eclipsing his career highs of .282-32-98, Lee finished just a single hit away from his first 200 hit season (his previous career high was 168). Lee also played his usual stellar defense at 1B, but the Cubs dismal finish, in the mind of most, sunk his chances to win the award.

ANAYLSIS

Let’s compare the three men in the following offensive categories:

AVG-HR-RBI-Runs-SB-OBP-SLG-OPS

Jones - .263-51-128-95-5 with .347/.575/.922

Pujols - .330-41-117-129-16 with .430/.609/1.039

Lee - .335-46-107-120-15 with .418/.662/1.080

So despite leading the NL in HR and RBI Jones finishes last amongst our three in Slg% and over .100 points behind the other two in OPS! In fact, Jones .922 OPS was only the 12 th best in the NL, extremely unimpressive for an MVP candidate don’t you think (Lee led the NL and Pujols was 2 nd)? Another interesting fact is that Jones’ OBP of .347 is barely ahead of the other two men’s batting average… does that signify an MVP season?

Listed below is each man’s ranking amongst NL hitters.

Jones - .263 (50 th), 51 HR (1 st), 128 RBI (1 st), 95 Runs (15 th), .347 OBP (40 th), .575 Slg% (5 th), .922 OPS (12 th).

Pujols - .330 (2 nd), 41 HR (3 rd), 117 (2 nd), 129 Runs (1 st), .430 OBP (2 nd), .609 Slg% (2 nd), 1.039 OPS (2 nd).

Lee - .335 (1 st), 46 HR (2 nd), 107 (7 th), 120 Runs (2 nd), .418 OBP (4 th), .662 Slg% (1 st), 1.080 OPS (1 st).

If you add up those rankings, with the lowest number being the best, here is what you get:

Jones – 124
Pujols – 14
Lee – 18

Yikes is right.

The last point put out there by Jones supporters is that Andruw was “clutch” all year long which is why he lead the NL in RBI. Do the numbers really back that up?

Jones
Runners on base: .236 with a .823 OPS
RISP: .207 with a .721 OPS
RISP with 2 Outs: .244 with a .880 OPS
* 297 AB with runners on base and produced 96 RBI, or one RBI per 3.09AB.

Pujols
Runners on base: .313 with a 1.032 OPS
RISP: .329 with a 1.093 OPS
RISP with 2 Outs: .308 with a 1.113 OPS
* 272 AB with runners on base produced 96 RBI, or one RBI per 2.83 AB.

Lee
Runners on Base: .309 with a .995 OPS
RISP: .331 with a 1.133 OPS
RISP with 2 Outs: .308 with a 1.096 OPS
* 236 AB with runners on base produced 76 RBI, or one RBI per 3.11 AB.

So despite leading the NL in RBI Jones was actually the WORST “clutch” hitter amongst the group, and the only reason he had more RBI than the other two hitters was because he had more opportunities with runners on base!

RESULTS

3. Andruw Jones. Despite his defense, Jones finishes a distant 3 rd in any rational person’s MVP vote. If he finishes higher than that, I would seriously question the writers wisdom and whether or not the current system of voting should continue into the future.

2. Derrek Lee. Unfortunately his teams poor finish will distract slightly from his overall performance. Also, the fact that this was obviously his career year might cause some writers to devalue him versus Pujols mind-numbing consistency. This is really one of the closets MVP calls in recent memory. If he won, I really couldn’t put up a strong argument against him.

1. Albert Pujols. Has to be given a little bit of credit for leading his team to the division title. Also, in ALL 5 years of this man’s career he has hit at least .314, with at least 34 HR, with at least 117 RBI, with at least 112 Runs, with at least 185 hits with at least a .955 OPS. Get out to the ballpark to watch this man, in 15 years he will be considered one of the 10 best overall hitters who ever lived.

Ray Flowers, a member of SABR and FSWA, can be reached with comments/questions or suggestions at: ray@fantasybaseball.com.

AUGUST QUICK HITS

2005-08-11T15:08:00.000-07:00
1) August and September call-ups and how they usually fair, what the numbers historically are like for guys like Francoeur and Felix Hernandez.

Jeff Francoeur (.419-8-23-21 in 86 AB)
~ No one is this good.
~ In his 86 AB he has ZERO BB.
~ He was only hitting .275-13-62 in 84 games for the AA Mississippi Braves prior to his call-up this year.

Felix Hernandez, SP, Mariners – (9-4, 2.25, 100, 1.25 at AAA)
~ Best pitching prospect in the minors. Most often compared to Dwight Gooden.
~ Dominated w/o throwing his best pitch his slider (the team didn’t want him throwing it at his young age of 19).
~ Allowed only 62 hits in 88 IP this year (48 BB).
~ in 2 MLB starts: 1-1, 0.69 ERA, 0.77 WHIP and 10 K versus 2 BB in 13 IP.

2) Return of Nomar and Corey Patterson and their fantasy impacts

Corey Patterson (.231-11-24-37-12)
~ Hit .158 in his last 120 MLB AB.
~ Did hit .297 with a .366 OBP an a .505 Slg% in 24 minor league games after hitting only .214 in his first 73 AB.
~ He did go 20/20 last year and was on pace to do that again this year before demotion (only 9 guys went 20/20 in 2004).

NOMAR
~6 for 19 since he returned (.316).
~ A career .320 hitter with a .912 OPS.
~ Numbers last year + this: .289-10-47-60 in 391 AB.
~ Huge impact replacing Neifi Perez.

3) ATHLETICS
Since the ALL_STAR BREAK: 3.32 ERA, 1.17 WHIP
Zito+Harden+ Blanton = 11-3, 3.10 ERA, 1.09 WHIP.

HITTING
Mark Ellis (.310-3-31-38-1)
~ Since the break: .394-2-17-19.
~ In his last 39 games: .336-3-24-27

DAN JOHNSON (.317-10-31-37)
~ .353-6-13-19 in 24 games since the break.

ASTROS
~PITCHING STAFF: SINCE the BREAK : 2.48 ERA, 1.15 WHIP
~ Since the all-star break Clemens + Pettitte + Oswalt = 9-4, 1.70 ERA, 1.08 WHIP.

HITTING
Jason Lane (.257-17-50-40-6)
~ Since the break: .359-3-10-8 in 20 games

Morgan Ensberg (.295-31-87-68-6)
~ Since the break: .313-7-22 in 26 games.

4) CARLOS BELTRAN (.269-13-59-57-9)
~ Struggled all year especially in JUNE when he hits .198 in 101 AB.
~ In his CAREER after the all-star break
He hits .027 HIGHER (.297)
He has a .029 higher OBP (.367)
He has a .068 higher SLG (.524)
He has a .097 higher OPS
AND
He has stolen 11 more bases despite playing in 147 less 2nd half games!

The Rafael Palmiero Saga

2005-08-04T13:54:00.000-07:00
Prettymuch eveyone in the world has written thier opinion on this guy, and while I'm inlcined to believe someone is innocent until proven guilty, it sure doesn't look to good for this former boy scout.

I weighed in on the topic in two places this week.

(1) http://athomeplate.com/palmeirosteroid.shtml

In this piece 4 writers from the AHP staff gave thier views on Raffy's drug use. Here is a quote from my piece:

Giambi, Bonds, McGwire and Sammy Sosa might have used steroids but none of them was ever caught with their hand in the cookie jar. Palmeiro’s hand is so deep in the cookie jar that he has chocolate covering his whole body like Augustus Gloop, the child who falls into the chocolate river in Willy Wonka.

(2) http://www.fantasybaseball.com/modules/wfsection/article.php?articleid=280
(You can sign up for FREE to read this one and to have access to all www.fantasybaseball.com pieces).

In this piece, I examined whether or not, steroids or not, Palmeiro's record showed him to be a Hall of Famer. Suprisingly to most, I decided, based solely on his numbers, that is not worthy of the Hall. A snipet from that piece:

~ Palmeiro NEVER led the league in AVG, HR, RBI or OPS.
~ Palmeiro NEVER won the MVP, and in fact finished 5 th out of our five 1B in our review of MVP voting.
~ Palmeiro made only 4 all-star teams, the fewest out of the five 1B that we surveyed.
~ And the capper…despite an illustrious career that included a marvelous series of consistently good season, Palmeiro was NEVER the best 1B in his league for a single season in his career.

Those of you that are interested should be able to find all your Raffy info in these two selections.

Sports Illustrated Weekly Column

2005-05-20T16:08:00.000-07:00

Hello there everyone, and thanks for stopping by.

I have big news to report, well at least its some news, but whether or not it is big is another matter.

I have recently been fortunate enough to have been given a weekly column for SPORTS ILLUSTRATED. The weekly article is, of course, on fantasy baseball and can only be read exclusively on http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/fantasy/ for free. In this weekly cloumn I will be answering readers questions in regards to what trades they should and shouldn't make (it's a milbag column).

You can read this weeks column at:

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2005/fantasy/08/11/fantasy.mailbag/index.html

If you have any fantasy related questions please email them to me at:

ray@fantasybaseball.com

and if you send me something really worthwhile, you just might read your answer on SI.com!

ALSO>>>
Dont forget to tune it Fridays to hear yours truly and Craig Davis with our weekly fantasy show. The show is live on Fridays from 2PM- 3 PM EST. If you want to join us with a question, just go to www.fantasybaseball.com, link to the Radio Show Page (THE PAYOFF PITCH), and you can find the number to call in.

*** A special thanks to Ryan Houston of Fantasy Planet for helping to get me the gig (FP is the parent company for fantasybaseball.com).

Fantasy Trading Philosophies

2005-04-20T10:16:00.000-07:00
We've all seen it, some lopsided deal where someone moves a hot JULIO LUGO for a struggling ERIC CHAVEZ...and you think to yourself 'damn it, I wish I had made an offer.' So you put your thinking cap on and do just that, you start making offers. But to your surprise you get a series of nasty replies saying things like 'do you think I'm crazy' or 'why in the hell would I do that.' What gives?

The truth of the matter is people value players differently, and therein lies the problem. Some people play the hot hand, others pounce and try to buy the guy who is struggling so bad that his own mother may not let him in her house. My thoughts...

Buy LOW sell high. Dont go out and try to shoot for the moon and trade for BRIAN ROBERTS right now. Roberts is hitting .421 (2nd in the AL), 6 HR (2nd), 17 RBI (2nd), and dont fall off your seat, but he is leading the AL in OBP, SLG% and OPS!!!
(.516, .849, 1.365...numbers that wouldn't look out of place with Barry Bonds)

But is this 5 foot 9 sparkplug suddenly going to move from career highs of 5 HR and 53 RBI to 25 HR 100 RBI guy in the leadoff spot? Of course not, but he is on pace right now to blow away those numbers.

So here is where you pounce...I know this might sound crazy to some of you, but I would TRADE him right now. No ones value will ever be higher, and even is he finishes the year with a .300-18-75 line, that means he's only gonna hit .280-12-58 the rest of the year. Why not try an trade for ALFONSO SORIANO? Do you think he will go .280-12-58 the rest of the year? You bet your A.. he will.

I'd even recommend the same tactics with JEFF KENT who is also smoking hot (.353-4-13 with 17 runs). If Kent averages .290-25-100, numbers he's had for the last hundred or so years, that means he's a .280-21-87 guy the rest of the year. Why not trade him for Soriano? Heck, BRETT BOONE will probably produce those numbers the rest of the year.

So think about trading a guy who is on fire right now for someone you know will be there in the end, I bet the strategy works our for you when all is said and done.

2004 AVERAGE GAME SCORE SEASON

2005-03-10T22:34:00.000-08:00
2004 AGSS

R. Johnson, Ari 64.92
J. Santana, Min 64.56
B. Sheets, Mil 62.68
J. Schmidt, SF 62.03
O. Perez, Pit 61.20
J. Peavy, SD 59.69
R. Clemens, Hou 59.57
C. Schilling, Bos 59.42
C. Zambrano, ChC 59.20
C. Pavano, Fla 57.18
P. Martinez, Bos 56.52
L. Hernandez, Mon 56.17
C. Carpenter, StL 56.14
R. Oswalt, Hou 55.69
F. Garcia, CWS/Sea 55.68
M. Clement, ChC 55.40
O. Perez, LA 55.28
K. Escobar, Ana 54.38
D. Davis, Mil 54.23
J. Wright, Atl 54.21
J. Westbrook, Cle 54.18
A. Leiter, NYM 53.94
B. Radke, Min 53.86
T. Lilly, Tor 53.27
T. Hudson, Oak 53.20
R. Harden, Oak 53.11
M. Buehrle, CWS 52.76
G. Maddux, ChC 52.59
D. Wells, SD 52.37
J. Weaver, LA 52.18
T. Glavine, NYM 52.14
C. Sabathia, Cle 52.10
J. Lima, LA 51.94
B. Arroyo, Bos 51.94
J. Marquis, StL 51.33
J. Thomson, Atl 51.17
B. Webb, Ari 50.83
W. Williams, StL 50.82
J. Bonderman, Det 50.66
K. Benson, NYM/Pit 50.60
M. Mulder, Oak 50.43
D. Willis, Fla 50.41
B. Tomko, SF 50.13
R. Ortiz, Atl 50.13
B. Zito, Oak 49.97
A. Eaton, SD 49.87
E. Milton, Phi 49.85
P. Wilson, Cin 49.74
J. Vazquez, NYY 49.69
S. Trachsel, NYM 49.68
J. Suppan, StL 49.45
M. Morris, StL 49.22
B. Lawrence, SD 49.09
J. Lackey, Ana 48.96
B. Colon, Ana 48.55
J. Lieber, NYY 48.49
M. Maroth, Det 48.48
N. Robertson, Det 48.45
R. Drese, Tex 48.37
C. Lidle, Cin/Phi 47.81
J. Garland, CWS 47.76
K. Ishii, LA 47.71
M. Hampton, Atl 47.23
T. Wakefield, Bos 47.16
J. Contreras, CWS/NYY 46.83
C. Lee, Cle 46.76
M. Batista, Tor 46.75
C. Silva, Min 46.73
K. Rogers, Tex 46.70
R. Franklin, Sea 46.58
J. Moyer, Sea 46.55
J. Fogg, Pit 46.40
J. Johnson, Det 46.19
M. Redman, Oak 46.16
M. Hendrickson, TB 45.79
B. Myers, Phi 45.23
K. Rueter, SF 44.29
S. Ponson, Bal 44.07
I. Valdez, SD/Fla 43.87
J. Jennings, Col 43.79
E. Loaiza, CWS/NYY 43.74
S. Estes, Col 43.41
K. Lohse, Min 43.15
D. May, KC 43.13
D. Lowe, Bos 42.10
B. Anderson, KC 40.42

FORMULA

AGSS = (GS x50) + 2(IP after the 4th) + Outs + K – 4(ER) – 2 (UER) - BB

STEP I
You begin with the GS total of a pitcher. Matt Clement started 30 games

STEP II
The next step in the process is take the GS total and multiple that number by 50 (since the original GMSC starts out with a baseline of 50).

Clement 30 GS x 50 = 1500 which equals our GMSC Points for the Season.

STEP III
For the IP after the 4th inning you would figure out the total like this:
2 [IP - (GS x 4)]
Clement pitched 181 innings.
2 [181 – (30 X 4)]
2 [181-120]
2[61] = 122
122 points for IP after the 4th inning for the equation.

STEP IV
Simply figure the pitchers GMSC for the entire season.

Clement: 543 Outs/190 K/155 Hits/74 ER/ 79 Runs (therefore 5 UER)/77 BB

Clement = 1500 + Outs + 2(IP after the 4th) + K – 2(hits) – 4(ER) – 2 (UER) – BB
= (1500 + 543 + 122 + 190) – 2(155) – 4(74) – 2(5) – 77
= 2355 – 310 – 296 – 10 – 77
= 2355 – 693
= 1662

STEP V
You then take the final number from Step IV and divide that by the Games Started total in order to arrive out our final score…our AVERAGE GAME SCORE SEASON (AGSS).

Clement: 1662 / GS 30

AGSS = 55.40

What AGSS says is that for each start Clement made in 2004, his average Game Score was 55.40.

2004 TERA Leaders (Triple ERA)

2005-03-10T15:22:00.000-08:00
(Based on 162 IP)

Player, Team TERA
R. Johnson, Ari 2.29
J. Santana, Min 2.56
B. Sheets, Mil 2.61
J. Schmidt, SF 2.87
J. Peavy, SD 2.89
R. Clemens, Hou 2.97
C. Schilling, Bos 3.08
O. Perez, Pit 3.16
C. Zambrano, ChC 3.21
C. Pavano, Fla 3.22
J. Wright, Atl 3.30
R. Oswalt, Hou 3.41
B. Radke, Min 3.50
T. Hudson, Oak 3.53
D. Davis, Mil 3.53
C. Carpenter, StL 3.55
O. Perez, LA 3.58
F. Garcia, CWS/Sea 3.64
D. Wells, SD 3.66
P. Martinez, Bos 3.66
J. Westbrook, Cle 3.68
L. Hernandez, Mon 3.72
T. Glavine, NYM 3.77
R. Harden, Oak 3.78
K. Escobar, Ana 3.80
M. Clement, ChC 3.84
B. Arroyo, Bos 3.86
J. Thomson, Atl 3.90
J. Weaver, LA 3.90
A. Leiter, NYM 3.91
K. Benson, NYM/Pit 3.94
M. Buehrle, CWS 4.04
B. Tomko, SF 4.06
G. Maddux, ChC 4.07
D. Willis, Fla 4.08
B. Webb, Ari 4.10
W. Williams, StL 4.11
C. Sabathia, Cle 4.11
J. Lieber, NYY 4.13
T. Lilly, Tor 4.16
R. Drese, Tex 4.25
A. Eaton, SD 4.33
J. Marquis, StL 4.34
J. Bonderman, Det 4.35
B. Lawrence, SD 4.36
S. Trachsel, NYM 4.37
J. Lackey, Ana 4.39
J. Lima, LA 4.43
M. Mulder, Oak 4.46
J. Suppan, StL 4.47
B. Zito, Oak 4.49
M. Maroth, Det 4.49
M. Hampton, Atl 4.49
R. Ortiz, Atl 4.53
C. Silva, Min 4.53
P. Wilson, Cin 4.55
C. Lidle, Cin/Phi 4.59
M. Hendrickson, TB 4.60
J. Vazquez, NYY 4.63
J. Fogg, Pit 4.64
M. Morris, StL 4.65
J. Johnson, Det 4.67
N. Robertson, Det 4.70
K. Rogers, Tex 4.75
E. Milton, Phi 4.85
B. Colon, Ana 4.87
K. Ishii, LA 4.87
T. Wakefield, Bos 4.89
J. Garland, CWS 4.90
M. Batista, Tor 4.92
K. Rueter, SF 4.93
M. Redman, Oak 4.99
D. Lowe, Bos 5.04
S. Ponson, Bal 5.05
R. Franklin, Sea 5.08
C. Lee, Cle 5.22
J. Contreras, CWS/NYY 5.26
B. Myers, Phi 5.26
J. Moyer, Sea 5.32
I. Valdez, SD/Fla 5.40
K. Lohse, Min 5.41
J. Jennings, Col 5.47
E. Loaiza, CWS/NYY 5.53
D. May, KC 5.57
S. Estes, Col 5.76
B. Anderson, KC 5.89

FORMULA

2004 ERA/ ERC /DIPS
Jason Schmidt 3.20 /2.37/ 3.03

So to get Schmidt’s TERA here is what the equation looks like.

Ex.

TERA = ERA + ERC + DIPS / 3
TERA = 3.20 + 2.37 + 3.03 / 3
TERA = 8.60 / 3
TERA = 2.866

So Jason Schmidt’s 2004 TERA is 2.87.

2004 DIPS ERA Leaders

2005-03-10T15:11:00.000-08:00
(Based on 162 IP)

Player, Team DIPS
R. Johnson, Ari 2.44
B. Sheets, Mil 2.75
J. Santana, Min 3.01
J. Schmidt, SF 3.03
J. Peavy, SD 3.21
R. Clemens, Hou 3.21
C. Schilling, Bos 3.22
R. Oswalt, Hou 3.27
J. Wright, Atl 3.4
O. Perez, Pit 3.5
C. Pavano, Fla 3.56
T. Hudson, Oak 3.6
P. Martinez, Bos 3.64
B. Radke, Min 3.66
C. Zambrano, ChC 3.68
D. Davis, Mil 3.71
F. Garcia, CWS/Sea 3.74
R. Harden, Oak 3.77
J. Lieber, NYY 3.79
K. Benson, NYM/Pit 3.8
K. Escobar, Ana 3.81
C. Carpenter, StL 3.88
B. Arroyo, Bos 3.88
J. Weaver, LA 3.91
J. Thomson, Atl 3.96
D. Wells, SD 4
D. Willis, Fla 4.01
L. Hernandez, Mon 4.05
M. Clement, ChC 4.06
J. Lackey, Ana 4.11
W. Williams, StL 4.16
J. Westbrook, Cle 4.19
R. Drese, Tex 4.21
M. Buehrle, CWS 4.23
O. Perez, LA 4.24
J. Bonderman, Det 4.24
A. Eaton, SD 4.27
T. Glavine, NYM 4.28
J. Johnson, Det 4.28
C. Sabathia, Cle 4.31
B. Tomko, SF 4.32
G. Maddux, ChC 4.33
D. Lowe, Bos 4.36
B. Webb, Ari 4.4
B. Lawrence, SD 4.43
M. Hampton, Atl 4.44
C. Silva, Min 4.48
K. Rogers, Tex 4.49
M. Hendrickson, TB 4.49
S. Ponson, Bal 4.52
B. Zito, Oak 4.53
N. Robertson, Det 4.53
C. Lidle, Cin/Phi 4.55
T. Lilly, Tor 4.56
M. Maroth, Det 4.59
J. Marquis, StL 4.61
M. Mulder, Oak 4.66
J. Fogg, Pit 4.68
J. Vazquez, NYY 4.74
P. Wilson, Cin 4.76
S. Trachsel, NYM 4.79
A. Leiter, NYM 4.84
R. Ortiz, Atl 4.84
J. Suppan, StL 4.86
C. Lee, Cle 4.91
J. Jennings, Col 4.91
M. Morris, StL 4.92
B. Colon, Ana 4.94
K. Lohse, Min 5.01
J. Lima, LA 5.03
M. Redman, Oak 5.04
K. Rueter, SF 5.06
T. Wakefield, Bos 5.06
B. Myers, Phi 5.1
M. Batista, Tor 5.11
E. Loaiza, CWS/NYY 5.16
D. May, KC 5.17
J. Contreras, CWS/NYY 5.22
E. Milton, Phi 5.23
J. Garland, CWS 5.24
R. Franklin, Sea 5.26
K. Ishii, LA 5.44
S. Estes, Col 5.57
J. Moyer, Sea 5.63
I. Valdez, SD/Fla 5.64
B. Anderson, KC 5.66

*** To download a spreadsheet to do your own DIPS calculations go to Larry Mahnken’s website (http://yankeefan.blogspot.com) and look for DIPS WORKSHEET on the left hand side.

DIPS D&D Version

Let’s use Jason Schmidt’s 20004 season again. Here are his totals:
IP H HR BB K
225 165 18 77 251

(IP*2.35) + (H*0.805) + (HR*10.76) + (BB*2.76) – (K*1.53)
_________________________________________________
(IP*0.712) + (H*.244) + (K*0.096) – (HR*0.244)

Yeah, and this is the simple version!

NUMERATOR
(225*2.35) + (165*.805) + (18*10.76) + (77*2.76) – (251*1.53)
528.75 + 132.825 + 193.68 + 212.52 – 384.03
1067.775 - 384.03
683.745

DENOMINATOR
(225*.712) + (165*.244) + (251*.096) – (18*.244)
160.2 + 40.26 + 24.096 – 4.392
224.556 - 4.392
220.164

6837.745 / 220.164
3.106
Therefore, Jason Schmidt’s DIPS, Down and Dirty style, was 3.11 in 2004 (just off his “longer” DIPS total of 3.03 listed in the story).

2004 COMPONENT ERA Leaders (ERC)

2005-03-10T14:54:00.000-08:00
2004 ERC LEADERS
(Based on 162 IP)

R. Johnson, Ari 1.83
J. Santana, Min 2.07
B. Sheets, Mil 2.37
J. Schmidt, SF 2.37
R. Clemens, Hou 2.73
C. Schilling, Bos 2.76
O. Perez, Pit 2.99
C. Pavano, Fla 3.10
J. Peavy, SD 3.19
J. Wright, Atl 3.21
C. Zambrano, ChC 3.21
D. Wells, SD 3.24
O. Perez, LA 3.26
C. Carpenter, StL 3.32
B. Radke, Min 3.36
F. Garcia, CWS/Sea 3.37
T. Glavine, NYM 3.43
P. Martinez, Bos 3.44
T. Hudson, Oak 3.45
R. Oswalt, Hou 3.46
J. Westbrook, Cle 3.46
D. Davis, Mil 3.49
L. Hernandez, Mon 3.52
R. Harden, Oak 3.58
K. Escobar, Ana 3.65
B. Arroyo, Bos 3.66
A. Leiter, NYM 3.69
K. Benson, NYM/Pit 3.72
M. Clement, ChC 3.78
J. Weaver, LA 3.79
B. Tomko, SF 3.82
T. Lilly, Tor 3.85
G. Maddux, ChC 3.87
C. Sabathia, Cle 3.91
J. Bonderman, Det 3.93
W. Williams, StL 3.99
M. Buehrle, CWS 4.00
J. Thomson, Atl 4.01
A. Eaton, SD 4.11
J. Lima, LA 4.19
D. Willis, Fla 4.21
J. Vazquez, NYY 4.23
J. Lieber, NYY 4.27
M. Mulder, Oak 4.28
M. Morris, StL 4.30
C. Lidle, Cin/Phi 4.32
B. Webb, Ari 4.32
S. Trachsel, NYM 4.32
R. Drese, Tex 4.33
J. Suppan, StL 4.38
J. Lackey, Ana 4.40
B. Zito, Oak 4.45
K. Ishii, LA 4.47
M. Hendrickson, TB 4.51
B. Lawrence, SD 4.53
P. Wilson, Cin 4.54
J. Garland, CWS 4.56
M. Maroth, Det 4.57
E. Milton, Phi 4.57
J. Fogg, Pit 4.59
J. Johnson, Det 4.60
R. Ortiz, Atl 4.61
B. Colon, Ana 4.65
N. Robertson, Det 4.66
J. Marquis, StL 4.70
T. Wakefield, Bos 4.74
M. Hampton, Atl 4.76
M. Batista, Tor 4.85
C. Silva, Min 4.89
K. Rueter, SF 4.99
K. Rogers, Tex 5.00
J. Contreras, CWS/NYY 5.06
R. Franklin, Sea 5.08
J. Moyer, Sea 5.13
B. Myers, Phi 5.17
M. Redman, Oak 5.23
C. Lee, Cle 5.31
D. Lowe, Bos 5.33
S. Ponson, Bal 5.34
I. Valdez, SD/Fla 5.38
S. Estes, Col 5.86
K. Lohse, Min 5.89
D. May, KC 5.94
J. Jennings, Col 5.99
B. Anderson, KC 6.36

In order to come up with ERC, a two-part equation is necessary.

A)
PTB = 0.89 x [(1.255 x (H-HR) + 4 x HR)] + 0.56 x (BB+HBP-IBB)
*PTB (Pitchers Total Base Estimate)

Let’s use Jason Schmidt’s 20004 season again. Here are his totals:
Hits HR BB IBB HBP BFP IP
165 18 77 3 3 907 225
*BFP = Batters Faced Pitchers (total batters against)

PTB = 0.89 x [1.255 x (165-18) + 4(18)] + 0.56 x (77+3-3)
PTB = 0.89 x [1.255 x (147)+72] + 0.56(77)
PTB = 0.89 x [184.485+72] + 43.12
PTB = 0.89 x [256.485] + 43.12
PTB = 228.272 + 43.12
PTB = 271.392

B)
ERC = [(H+BB+HBP) x PTB / (BFP x IP)] x 9 – 0.56

ERC = [(165+77+3) x 271.392 / (907 x 225)] x 9 – 0.56
ERC = [245 x 271.392 / 204075] x 9 – 0.56
ERC = [66491.04 / 204075] x 9 – 0.56
ERC = [.326] x 9 – 0.56
ERC = 2.934 – 0.56
ERC = 2.374

Therefore, Jason Schmidt’s ERC in 2004 was 2.37.