I compliment you on your willingness to go through...

2008-10-04T19:08:00.000-04:00

I compliment you on your willingness to go through what strikes me as a heroic set of mental gymnastics to understand McCain's newest strategy, such as it is.

I mean, look, there are something like 40 million ways to get to 269, so anyone can spend a long time conjuring up combinations of states. But when you actually starting looking at them in the current context, it becomes apparent that we're talking about real long shots.

One question I'd have concerns the balance between the ground game and TV advertising. 538.com has had some very interesting material about how McCain is strong in Minnesota because he's outspent Obama 3:1 there, but notes that in opportunity cost terms that has been a very expensive tactic.

538.com also has an utterly fascinating story about the moribund McCain ground operations. It leads me to wonder where McCain's money has gone. What's their balance between advertising and ground game?

This leads directly to the Michigan withdrawal. My understanding is that McCain sent his ground team from Michigan to Indiana in response to unexpected Obama efficacy there. But it occurs to me that this doesn't matter so much from a McCain perspective, because the real impact of leaving Michigan is the ability to shift advertising dollars.

It seems to me that, from what I've been reading, Pennsylvania is a lost cause. I am also quite skeptical concerning New Hampshire, which just showed two polls at 10%-12% for Obama. I don't know what McCain is smoking to think they can win there.

As there's not much of a Republican apparatus left in New Hampshire due to an ongoing local meltdown, it would seem that winning there would require an advertising push. But the New Hampshire media market is deadly expensive because you reach most of NH from Boston. All that for 4 EVs? I don't think so.

So that leaves them with Florida and Virginia, or so it would seem. I wonder what ad markets you use to reach these places; how expensive they are; and whether it isn't a little late to shift there anyway.

Finally, there is the issue of McCain's message. If the Washington Post is to be believed, McCain is planning to go negative with attacks on Ayers and Rezko, etc. I'm flabbergasted by that, given those results from the dial meters showing negative reactions to attacks during the last two debates.

I think the next two presidential debates are McCain's last chance, and for the life of me I just can't fathom a strategy of using them as attack platforms. McCain looks terrible when he's on the attack. I have to think that he's playing to his base in a desperate move to keep people from not showing up altogether.

It's fascinating to watch McCain's options dwindle to nothing.

Comments on Race to 270: McCain strategy

I compliment you on your willingness to go through...