Patience and Thought

The disconnect between science and the public

2009-07-10T11:41:00.000-07:00

The disconnect between someone in a given professional field, familiar with the topics of discussion around the water cooler, and those who are on the outside, are fairly universal.

Electricians know about electrical wiring protocols, I do not.

Car mechanics know about engine hose manufacturer types, I do not.

However, the overarching field of science effects the quality of life of a very large section of western society; from medicine to computers, science helps us to both build tools, and how best to apply those tools.

Thus, the suppression of scientific data when it goes against a pre-determined political or social mindset, effects everyone one of us, inside or outside the profession.

It is therefore worry some that the normal divide between scientist and non-scientist extends to the stories about political pressure placed on scientists during the Bush Administrations 8-year tenure. Threats of firing, edited reports, and more, are both alleged and admitted to have occurred; and yet only a fraction of the general public is even aware of it!
http://people-press.org/report/?pageid=1549

Patience

2009-04-01T10:12:00.000-07:00

Lots of action going on in the government at the moment. Lots of projects, lots of experiments. I'm not educated enough on the items at hand to really have a serious opinion about the details of these plans, so I won't jump at a guess.

Doing nothing will likely result in the markets correcting themselves, likely at a great cost to many who had nothing to do with this situation. Possibly, if things were actually as bad as some thought 6 months ago, at the cost of the modern economy itself. Some form of Keynesian government spending seems to be a good idea - investment which will pay for itself down the line is 100% a good idea.

However, many people, Germany in particular, are very concerned about hyper inflation from the Fed printing money to pay for this work; and given Germany's experience between the world wars, they have every right to be concerned. They know the dangers of trying to simply print your way out of debt.

The US Dollar may be entrenched enough to survive a massive increase in available notes through sheer inertia, but if too much money is printed, the US dollar can plummet in value just like any other currency.

So, while I still support demand-side stimulus, I am going to be patient to see how this all plays out. Hopefully, there will be caution along with the action.

Obama Begins the Process of Fixing Gov't Accounting

2009-02-25T08:49:00.000-08:00

At the cost of looking like he is increasing the deficit by an additional $70 million dollars, President Obama has banned certain accounting tricks, started by the Carter Administration but brought to an art form during the last Bush presidency. In particular, the AMT is going to see an overhaul, bringing its account in line with its reality.

This is a great step forward in fixing our overall economic crisis: properly recognizing our debts.
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/02/20/us/politics/20budget.html?_r=2&partner=rss&emc=rss

Congressional Budget Office sees Overall Growth due to Stimulus

2009-02-24T08:22:00.000-08:00

From the Feb 11 Congressional Budget Office, an independent group the oversees gov't actions and proposals:

"Taking all of the short- and long-run effects into account, CBO estimates that the
legislation implies an increase in GDP relative to the agency’s baseline forecast of
between 1.4 percent and 3.8 percent by the fourth quarter of 2009, between 1.1 percent and 3.3 percent by the fourth quarter of 2010, between 0.4 percent and 1.3 percent by the fourth quarter of 2011, and declining amounts in later years (see Table 1). Beyond 2014, the legislation is estimated to reduce GDP by between zero and 0.2 percent....

Correspondingly, the legislation would increase employment by 0.8 million to 2.3
million by the fourth quarter of 2009, by 1.2 million to 3.6 million by the fourth quarter of 2010, by 0.6 million to 1.9 million by the fourth quarter of 2011, and by declining numbers in later years. The effect on employment is never estimated to be negative, despite lower GDP in later years, because CBO expects that the U.S. labor market will be at nearly full employment in the long run. The reduction in GDP is therefore estimated to be reflected in lower wages rather than lower employment, as workers will be less productive because the capital stock is smaller."
http://www.cbo.gov/ftpdocs/99xx/doc9987/Gregg_Year-by-Year_Stimulus.pdf

The last sentence of each paragraph is critical, and is what is being taken out of context all over the place. In both cases, the CBO is saying that in the long-term, the effects of the stimulus will taper off to eventually be effectively unnoticeable; that in the long-run, the economy will recover from this downturn on its own.

Assuming that we are not actually facing the leading edge of a complete failure of western society right now, that should be a given.

The GDP numbers do suggest that in the mid-term, we may actually see a 0.0 to 0.2 percent decrease in annual GDP (which, according to other sources, would even out by 2019), but they are *not* saying that the stimulus will "cause a reduction in our economy" as a whole, despite what some senators and journalists are currently claiming.

In the end, the report suggests that in exchange for a combined 2.9 - 8.4% GDP increase over the baseline forecast for the next 3 years along with increased employment in the millions, we may see a <1% decrease in total GDP spread over the years between 2014 and 2019.

Attendence to Religious Service, not deviotion to faith, predicts suicide bombing

2009-02-24T07:08:00.000-08:00

Adding more evidence to the idea that regular organized religious attendance - at a church, synagogue, mosque or temple - is as much about social unity than anything else, a three-pronged study shows a strong correlation between suicide bombing and attendance to religious services; no correlation found between suicide bombing and religious devotion, as measured by daily (personal) prayer.

http://scienceblogs.com/notrocketscience/2009/02/attendance_at_religious_services_but_not_religious_devotion.php

The Mother of all Bailouts?

2009-02-06T09:21:00.001-08:00

Start with this post sent to me via the Populist America newsletter:
http://www.populistamerica.com/the_mother_of_all_bailouts

My response to the author can be found in the comments; I've reproduced it here. His questions are in bold, my responses are in normal font.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

As mentioned above, if not having enough dollars is the problem, why not have the government give each person a million bucks? Would that fix everything?

No, because by simply increasing the number of dollars, you decrease the inherent value of each individual dollar. The dollar is not wealth, it is a tool for moving wealth. *Work* creates new wealth.

If increasing spending fixes an economy, how about if we all stand in a long line, and everyone hand $20 to the person next to them? How about $1,000? Would that fix everything? (Or, if gifts aren’t good enough, everyone could buy his neighbor’s shoes for $1,000. Wouldn’t all that “spending” save the day?)

This is a misleading question. The economy *is* spending, by definition; but more importantly, it is spending on new effort that creates. By simply trading money for no work, we gain nothing – again, the dollar is a tool for trading, not wealth itself. If we all give each other $20, we waste everyone’s time. If we all make *new* shoes, and *then* pass around $20 in exchange for them, we have an economy.

If it helps the economy to redistribute wealth, how about if the government takes away all existing wealth and divides it up equally, 300,000,000 ways? Would that fix everything?

Also a misleading question. Redistributing wealth is not inherently beneficial to a society, especially when that redistribution is not in line with individual effort. However, reducing the overall income gap *is* beneficial to society. The more top-heavy a society gets, with the upper-upper class holding more and more of the money, the more unstable it gets.

A healthy middle class is a healthy and stable nation, a large economy, and an improved quality of life for the nation as a whole. A weak or non-existent middle class results in a smaller economy, a lowered quality of life for the nation as a whole, and subsequently results in an unstable nation.

Effectively, what it comes down to is this: Money in circulation for trade of goods and services is a stabilizing force for society. Money held out of circulation is a destabilizing force, as is is not doing any work other than to foment jealousy.

If the problem is lack of jobs, how about if the government gives a job to anyone who wants one, paying them $50 an hour to carry empty boxes around in circles? Would that fix everything?

Again, this is misleading; suggesting that the only solutions being put forward are communist. Money is not wealth. If we want to pay people to do work, there is lots of *actual* work that needs to be done. There is no reason to start paying for box-carrying when we have infrastructure, medicine, farming, research, etc that needs doing.

If a lack of credit is the problem, how about if the government gives everyone a new, federal credit card with a $1,000,000 line of credit? Would that fix everything?

No. We have too much debt in general; and we’re going to have a rough time over the next few months as we reduce the debt in circulation to come closer to a safe ratio to the actual money in existence. I’m not much of a fan of 1:11 lending; 1:33 lending was insane, and we’re paying the price for it.

If “corporate greed” is the problem, how about if government outlaws making profits, forcing companies to sell things at prices that would just make them break even? Would that fix everything?

This is a specious argument; there is a vast gap between “lax regulation” and “outlaw all business”. Smart regulation is a necessary part of any market; or do you think that monopoly laws should be eliminated? What about workplace safety regulations? Food quality control?

CRA not the cause of Subprime meltdown.

2008-10-07T14:20:00.000-07:00

"As Barry Ritholtz notes in this fine rant, the CRA didn't force mortgage companies to offer loans for no money down, or to throw underwriting standards out the window, or to encourage mortgage brokers to aggressively seek out new markets. Nor did the CRA force the credit-rating agencies to slap high-grade ratings on packages of subprime debt."
http://www.slate.com/id/2201641

The CRA, Community Reorganization Act, helped create the less-so but still-profitable subprime lending market to minorities in 1977. It remained stable for nearly 20 years. In 1995, Clinton altered the act to allow for slightly riskier loans – Bear Sterns (note, not covered by CRA regulations anyway) lead the way in using this law change to aggressively enter this market. From 1997 to 2002, the subprime rate rose to and stabilized at about 10% of the overall market. In 2000 Phil Gramm, one of the John McCain’s chief economic advisers wrote the Securities Modernization Act, which introduced Default Credit Swaps – insurance on loans that wasn’t called insurance so that it wouldn’t be regulated, and responsible for trillions of dollars of the current problem. In 2002, Clinton’s changes were up for review, but Bush did not review them. From what I can find, he didn’t act on the review period at all.

In 2003, Bush noted that Fannie and Freddie’s subprime loans were getting to be too large of their overall holdings, and tried to get oversight of the two entities moved from congress to the Treasury Department. This action failed, no doubt because handing over more power to the Executive branch in 2003 was not likely to happen. This action did not do anything about the public mortgage marketplace, just the FM’s.

In 2005 the Bush administration, via the Office of Comptroller of Currency enforced for the first time, a 1860’s law which allows federal oversight of banks to supersede state-level regulation. All 50 state AG’s and all 50 state Banking Commissioners objected to this action, which prevented state-level regulations from being enforced. Also, the CRA was amended to only apply as it had previously to banks with assets >$1B, instead of all banks with assets greater than $250M as it had previously, and allowed mortgage banks to leverage themselves beyond the 10% threshold that had previously been in place (Lehman Bros was at 33/1 when it fell over). At this point, subprime lending increased from ~10% of the mortgage market to ~25% as of the beginning of this year.

More than half of subprime mortgages were made by institutions either not covered by the CRA (independent mortgage brokers) or only partially covered (bank subsidiaries), and 40% of all home purchases in 2006 were not primary residences – a record number.

Large Majority of Economists Support Obama's Economic Plan

2008-10-04T13:06:00.001-07:00

In a follow-up to the previous post, The Economist reports significant favor for Obama's plan among respondents to a poll of economists nationwide.

This graph says it all:

From The Economist:
"Examining America's Presidential Candidates
http://www.economist.com/world/unitedstates/displaystory.cfm?story_id=12342127

Economists Favor Obama

2008-09-16T09:59:00.000-07:00

Right-leaning Libertarian cartoonist Scott Adams, creator of the tech-office strip Dilbert, has commissioned a survey of economists to determine which candidate the classic super-geeks favored with regard to long-term economic benefits and other social issues.

Obama came out on top in nearly every category, and even though the sample was heavily democratic, that's only because apparently, most economists are democrats, nationwide.

That last bit's news to me, too.

http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/09/16/dilbert.economy/index.html

BPA (chemical in many plastics) Slows Brain

2008-09-04T13:49:00.000-07:00

http://www.treehugger.com/files/2008/09/bpa-makes-you-stupid.php

"It dramatically impairs the formation of synapses in the regions of the brain important to learning," biomedical science professor Neil MacLusky [of the University of Guelph] said.

Nalgene, maker of super-tough water bottles for recreational use, recently began selling BPA-free bottles, I recommend them.
http://www.nalgenechoice.com/

Obama to make VP part of the Government again

2008-08-20T13:44:00.000-07:00

Obama has promised to make his VP part of the executive branch of the government - not an undefined fourth branch, as created by VP Cheney in avoiding punishment for his questionable if not outright illegal activities. A VP that's part of the Executive branch - as the office had previously been since the 1700's.

It's sad that I'm excited by the idea of a president that actually wants to follow the constitution, but that's where we stand.

*sigh*

http://www.thetimes.co.za/News/Article.aspx?id=826159

The state of cheap laptops

2008-08-11T07:51:00.000-07:00

The idea was this: provide for poor schools all the books they didn't have. Math, History, Language.

But it was not an easy task. How do you get hundreds of text books, weighing thousands of pounds, to the far reaches of the world? And what did you do when the information in them became outdated?

The concept was to give, instead of 5 pound books, one 3 pound laptop - low powered (with hand-crank and solar options so that it would even work in areas with no electric grid), rugged (water resistant and sand resistant), with a connection to the internet (and it's thousands, no, thanks to Google, millions of books) - and sell it for $100.

The idea from one Nicholas Negroponte from MIT was ground breaking. And with a cadre of volunteers, he delivered. Using a low-powered AMD Geode processor, a free Linux-based Operating System, and a fantastic screen that worked out in the sunlight, the OLPC (One Laptop Per Child) XO laptop was born.

Right out of the gate it sold fast, to schools in South America and Africa. Unfortunately, as orders for the XO computer started pouring in, businesses suddenly realized that Negroponte was right - there was a large untapped worldwide market for low-cost computers. And that was the projects undoing.
http://technology.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/tech_and_web/article4472654.ece

Today, there are a number of entrants into the low-end laptop market. While Intel's post-OLPC project, the Classmate PC, was gobbling up marketshare around the world thanks to the slightly stronger hardware and the great power of Intel's marketing arm, Asus's Eee PC came out of the gates like a bull - their small, standard component laptop sold for $300 to anyone who wanted it (OLPC and Intel were selling only to schools), and the public ate them up.
http://www.pcconnection.com/IPA/Shop/Product/Search.htm?term=asus%20eee&DefSort=Y&searchFilter=ALL

Acer has also entered the low-cost laptop recently, relying on Intel's Atom low-powered processor.
http://arstechnica.com/reviews/hardware/atom-nano-review.ars

The result is a good competitor to the EeePC, with a bit more power for just a bit more money:
http://www.pcconnection.com/IPA/Shop/Product/Detail.htm?sku=8708409

OLPC is most likely dead, though the technology may live in in other projects; Mr Negroponte's idea certainly changed the landscape of low-cost computing. Sadly for the school children of the world, the lowest-cost computing system - also the one built with harsher environments in mind - will not be a part.

The Year of Living Biblically

2008-07-21T13:56:00.000-07:00

What happens when an agnostic follows all the rules of the Bible for one year? He finds that belief isn't a requirement for sacredness to be useful.

http://www.ted.com/index.php/talks/a_j_jacobs_year_of_living_biblically.html

Lifestyle may effect genes, too

2008-06-17T15:29:00.000-07:00

No, we're not talking about a return to the Lamarkian theory of evolution. By exercising, reducing stress, and changing diet, a number of men with prostate cancer have seen drastic changes in gene activation - most notably in genes that are involved in cancerous growth.

A larger study needs to be undertaken to eliminate the effects of chance on the results, but it is a very promising result! Eat your carrots, kids!

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/25201082

Laffer Curves and Tax cuts

2008-06-11T14:06:00.000-07:00

McCain’s idea that reducing the tax rate increases overall government revenue due to increased business growth is based largely on the idea of the high-income Laffer curve - if you tax everyone 100%, then no one will work to make money since they don’t get to keep it. Therefore, reducing taxes will increase business, and therefore will increase tax revenue. Makes sense!

However, the same argument can be made for 0% taxation – business might be huge, but the government gets nothing unless you raise taxes.

The end result here is that just like everything else, there is at least one optimal solution somewhere in the middle of the extreme cases – most likely somewhere tending toward the lower quarter mark (~25%), where people grumble, but still go to work everyday.

Austan Goolsbee - Obama's chief economic adviser agrees (or agreed, as this paper is from 1999):

“This paper has used evidence from seven different tax changes since 1922 to examine the evidence in support of the high-income Laffer curve and the New Tax Responsiveness Literature. While that work emphasizes the potential importance of behavioral responses to marginal tax rates, the results in this paper suggest that the evidence on which those conclusions are based—evidence from the 1980s—is atypical in the historical experience. Using the same methods that NTR authors have used for the 1980s, the elasticities of taxable income calculated for other tax changes seem to be much more modest with several indistinguishable from zero. This is true in the aggregate cross-sectional tax return data as well as in panel data on executive compensation. The largest estimates of the taxable income elasticity from all of the previous historical periods is lower than the smallest estimates of the elasticity in the literature based on the 1980s. Given the importance of the behavioral response to taxation, it is my hope that this will stimulate further research on the topic using data outside of conventional tax returns in the 1980s and 1990s.

The notion that governments could raise more money by cutting rates is, indeed, a glorious idea. It would permit a Pareto improvement of the most enjoyable kind. Unfortunately for all of us, the data from the historical record suggest that it is unlikely to be true at anything like today’s marginal tax rates. It seems that, for now at least, we will have to keep paying for our tax cuts the old fashioned way. “

You can read the full paper here: http://faculty.chicagogsb.edu/austan.goolsbee/research/laf.pdf

At Least Children Remember

2008-06-05T15:30:00.000-07:00

more info here: http://www.sfsf.com.au/econews/econews_story_severin_suziki.htm

Good Idea, Bad Idea

2008-06-03T12:17:00.001-07:00

Suppose there's a person in your office that you don't get along with. You have to work with them, however - you're not the boss in this situation, and you end up on a bunch of the same projects.

Do you
a) Avoid talking to the person no matter what.
b) Insult the person and hope they go away.
c) Tell them that they need to do everything your way, and if they don't like it, they can take a long jump off a short pier.
d) Discuss the problems you're having in an attempt to resolve the conflict or at least come to a professional understanding so that you can both get your work done.

If you picked D, then you're:
1) Not President Bush, John McCain or Hillary Clinton
2) In agreement with Barack Obama and more than 65% of the American public - including half of all Republicans.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/107617/Americans-Favor-President-Meeting-US-Enemies.aspx

MythBusters on Electric Vehicles

2008-05-19T14:07:00.000-07:00

While I've always wanted an electric vehicle - imagine never filling up again! - the range has always been a limiting factor. I can't afford to spend the money on a vehicle that prevents me from leaving right from work to drive to Virginia if suddenly needed.

Mine interests are common, but mostly I hear people complain about the performance of electric vehicles.- that they are slow.

The discovery Channel show MythBusters and Jay Leno would like to address that point:
http://www.popularmechanics.com/technology/transportation/4264025.html

Tough Enough.

2008-05-05T10:43:00.000-07:00

"...we don’t need a president who is tough enough to withstand the lies of his opponents. We need a president who is tough enough to tell the truth to the American people. Any one of the candidates can answer the Red Phone at 3 a.m. in the White House bedroom. I’m voting for the one who can talk straight to the American people on national TV — at 8 p.m. — from the White House East Room."

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/05/04/opinion/04friedman.html?em&ex=1210132800&en=86fe7eaa442ab3f2&ei=5087%0A

Obama asks Sec. State Rice for a Rule on Military use

2008-04-09T08:33:00.000-07:00

Jan 2005: Senator Obama asks Rice a question:

"Do we have a well-thought-through doctrine that we can present to the world that explains when we feel that military action is justified, and when it is not?"

Her answer is long, and comes down to, no, we do not.

To follow that response up, using Obama's words "...do you think...that the administration should be able to engage in ad-hock judgments?
"I understand that the world is complicated..., but right now, at least, it seems like it's a moving target for both the American people and the international community."

Cheesesteaks and the Lack of a National Language

2008-03-24T07:14:00.000-07:00

A good friend of mine sent my this link earlier today:

http://news.aol.com/story/_a/speak-english-signs-ok-at-philly-shop/20080320083809990001?ncid=NWS00010000000001
In short, a famous cheesesteak shop in Philadelphia put up signs saying that customers must order in English. The court ruling on the issue concluded that such a rule was legal.

This is not too surprising, given that Geno’s is a private business, they have the right to limit the customers that they serve, with certain exceptions (race, religion, etc.).

Requiring English is not going to violate discrimination laws in most cases because 1) anyone can learn English, and 2) there are many cultures that don’t speak English, so it is not discriminating against a single, clear minority.

However, it should be recognized that the US does not have a national language, and for a reason – unlike the European nations that our culture and government descended from, we have the freedom to choice our own language. If a group wants to speak Polish, and only talk to other people who speak Polish, and only serve customers who order in Polish, they can do so.

Of course, given the pervasiveness of English as the world language of trade and business, I think it’s a bad idea to *not* learn English. It’s also poor manners to move to another country and not attempt to learn the local culture and adhere to their rules while you are living there.

But law and morals only overlap so far – there should not be a law requiring English, just like there should not be a law require that you happily accept a business owner who refuses to take orders in the language that you happen to speak. In a free society, these are cultural and social issues – they shouldn’t have to become legal ones.

Obama Drops Politics for Fairness

2008-03-20T07:24:00.000-07:00

The story - John McCain was not born in the US, and can't be president.

Maybe. Depending on who you ask, the Panama Canal Zone was not US territory when John McCain was born there. He is therefore, by the words of the Constitution, not a natively born citizen, and cannot be president.

In the wake of the announcement, all of his opponents called for him to step down, and allow Mike Huckabee to fill his role as the leading Republican candidate.

Oh, wait, that didn't happen? Instead of being petty, and using a loophole to dismantle his major rival, Obama is currently co-sponsoring a bill to ensure that McCain's debatable status as Presidential candidate is clarified? That he is playing politics on the basis of merits and honor?

http://blog.washingtonpost.com/the-trail/2008/02/29/obama_backs_law_to_ensure_mcca.html

The McCain Delta

2008-03-11T06:43:00.000-07:00

When matched up against McCain, both Obama and Clinton would win at this time. However, Clinton would hold a small margin, which Obama would win by a solid amount.

http://politicalinquirer.com/2008/03/07/clinton-vs-mccain-obama-vs-mccain/

This is Just Cool

2008-03-07T06:30:00.000-08:00

The Briggs-Rauscher reaction is known as an oscillating chemical reaction. According to Wikipedia: “the freshly prepared colorless solution slowly turns an amber color, suddenly changing to a very dark blue. This slowly fades to colorless and the process repeats, about ten times in the most popular formulation, before ending as a dark blue liquid smelling strongly of iodine.” The reason this occurs is that the first reaction causes certain chemicals to be released in to the liquid, which then, in turn, spark a second reaction, and the process repeats itself until exhausted.
http://listverse.com/science/top-10-amazing-chemical-reactions/

Imbalance of Powers

2008-03-03T07:46:00.000-08:00

US Attorney General Mike Mukasey has, not surprisingly, refused to enforce two congressional subpoenas, or the contempt citations that followed (due to the failure by two Bush administration member's to comply).

The problem here is this: you may have done nothing wrong, but you still have to show up for court. You can plead the 5^th or shout "Executive Privilege" all you want once you are there, but you’re not allowed to simply refuse to show up. To claim that executive privilege means the President or his staff don't need to even bother to appear before the congress is to suggest that the legislative branch has no power over the executive.

The obvious logic problem there is that Mukasey is refusing to investigate whether a crime occurred, and refusing to help the congress investigate whether a crime occurred, because Bush told him that everything that happened was lawful. Using an only slightly modified Nixonian logic, Mukasey is claiming: “If the President does it in order to fulfill his obligation to protect the nation, then it’s legal.” Bush has often publicly confused his oath of office in this way numerous times now - forgetting that his oath is to uphold the constitution.

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/03/01/us/01contempt.html?_r=2&sq=attorney%20general&st=nyt&adxnnl=1&oref=slogin&scp=7&adxnnlx=1204518210-qAPkoVmjWyMnlVuTb5Gvpg&oref=slogin

re-posted for those who don't have NYTimes accounts. Sorry for the copyright violation, full attribution provided:

No Investigation of 2 Bush Aides

By THE ASSOCIATED PRESS

Published: March 1, 2008

WASHINGTON (AP) — Attorney General Michael B. Mukasey on Friday rejected referring the House’s contempt citations against President Bush’s chief of staff and former counsel to a federal grand jury. Mr. Mukasey said they had committed no crime.

Mr. Mukasey said the chief of staff, Joshua B. Bolten, and the former counsel, Harriet E. Miers, were right in refusing to provide Congress with White House documents or to testify about the firings of federal prosecutors.

“The department will not bring the Congressional contempt citations before a grand jury or take any other action to prosecute Mr. Bolten or Ms. Miers,” Mr. Mukasey wrote to the House speaker, Nancy Pelosi.

The House voted two weeks ago to cite Mr. Bolten and Ms. Miers for contempt and to seek a grand jury investigation.

Ms. Pelosi requested the grand jury investigation on Thursday. She said the House would file a civil suit seeking enforcement of the contempt citations if federal prosecutors declined to seek misdemeanor charges against Mr. Bolten and Ms. Miers.