Tour Outsider

John Deere Classic

2009-07-08T15:14:00.002-06:00

The US PGA Tour heads to the mid-west to play the John Deere Classic. IT is the last tournament on the US PGA Tour circuit before the next major (the British Open). The winner of the John Deere gets a chance to play in the British Open if they are not already in the field of the British Open. So there is some added incentive for players in the John Deere field.

Rank	Player	CLi
1	Kenny Perry	1.90
2	Jeffrey Overton	14.60
3	John Senden	14.90
4	Woody Austin	18.50
5	Steve Stricker	19.15
6	Heath Slocum	21.70
7	Nathan Green	22.05
8	Greg Chalmers	22.20
9	Kevin Sutherland	22.50
10	Jason Dufner	23.85
11	Jason Bohn	24.45
12	Cameron Beckman	24.95
13	David Toms	25.35
14	Casey Wittenberg	26.35
15	Lucas Glover	26.65

Kenny Perry is a clear favorite this week. His CLi figure is 1.90 (which is low) and the next closest is 14.60 (which is a big difference between players). So I would be foolish to not pick Perry to play well this week [ hopefully I won't be eating those words).

I am going to skip Overton. He has played well in this event. However, I just don't get the feeling he is going to stay in the field (i.e. a WD possibly). I am then going to pick the next 4 players in the CLi rankings: Senden, Austin, Stricker and Slocum.

Below are my 5 picks for the John Deere Classic:

Rank	Player	CLi
1	Kenny Perry	1.90
2	John Senden	14.90
3	Woody Austin	18.50
4	Steve Stricker	19.15
5	Heath Slocum	21.70

AT&T National

2009-06-30T10:15:00.002-06:00

After a sabbatical last week due to traveling, I am back at posting my picks for the current week's tournament.

The US PGA Tour heads to the Washington D.C. this week to play Tiger's tournament: AT&T National.

Rank	Player	CLi
1	Jim Furyk	6.20
2	Tiger Woods	6.35
3	Anthony Kim	7.90
4	Jeffrey Overton	12.10
5	Robert Allenby	12.80
6	Hunter Mahan	13.60
7	Michael Allen	15.45
8	John Senden	20.90
9	Bo Van Pelt	21.15
10	Vijay Singh	21.50
11	Paul Goydos	21.55
12	Nick O'Hern	21.75
13	Davis Love III	22.70
14	Alexander Cejka	27.35
15	Steve Marino	28.05

I am going go with the top 3 players in the CLi rankings: Furyk, Woods, and Kim. Then I am going to skip Overton and pick Allenby and Mahan.

Below are my 5 picks for the AT&T National:

Rank	Player	CLi
1	Jim Furyk	6.20
2	Tiger Woods	6.35
3	Anthony Kim	7.90
4	Robert Allenby	12.80
5	Hunter Mahan	13.60

Travelers Championship

2009-06-25T05:21:00.002-06:00

I have been traveling and in meetings most of this week. So I have not been able to run the CLi calculation and think about my picks. Thus, I will not be posting any picks this week for the Travelers Championship.

U.S. Open

2009-06-15T20:20:00.002-06:00

This week the US PGA Tour heads to Bethpage - Black in New York to play the 2nd major of the year: the U.S. Open.

Rank	Player		CLi
1		Tiger Woods	4.20
2		Jim Furyk	4.40
3		Tim Clark	9.70
4		Steve Stricker	9.80
5		David Toms	10.60
6		Phil Mickelson	16.60
7		Vijay Singh	20.30
8		Paul Casey	23.20
9		Geoff Ogilvy	23.90
10		Justin Leonard	24.00
11		Ian Poulter	25.00
12		Mike Weir	26.10
13		Kenny Perry	27.30
14		Sean O'Hair	28.40
15		Thomas Levet	29.70

I am going go with the top 3 players in the CLi rankings: Woods, Furyk, and Clark. Then I am going to skip Stricker, pick Toms, skip Mickelson. and pick Singh.

It is hard for me not to pick Stricker as I am a University of Illinois alumni. However, I am not sure how he will hold up at Bethpage - Black.

I am skipping Mickelson because he has too much on his mind with his wife dealing with cancer. It is hard to play in a major, much less any pro golf tournament, with such a large issue on one's mind.

I hope both Stricker and Mickelson play well even though I didn't pick them. I hope they prove me wrong.

Below are my 5 picks for the U.S. Open:

Rank	Player		CLi
1		Tiger Woods	4.20
2		Jim Furyk	4.40
3		Tim Clark	9.70
4		David Toms	10.60
5		Vijay Singh	20.30

St. Jude Classic

2009-06-10T16:56:00.003-06:00

This week the US PGA Tour heads to Nashville for a U.S. Open tournament warm up to play the St. Jude Classic.

Rank	Player		CLi
1		Justin Leonard	3.10
2		David Toms	7.90
3		Woody Austin	9.90
4		Brian Gay	11.40
5		Fredrik Jacobson	16.25
6		Stephen Ames	17.40
7		Bob Estes	18.30
8		Scott Verplank	18.40
9		Jeff Maggert	18.60
10		Tim Clark	19.00
11		John Senden	19.45
12		Ben Crane	24.55
13		Tim Herron	25.10
14		J.J. Henry	26.85
15		Michael Letzig	27.40

I am going to stick with the top 4 players in the CLi rankings: Leonard, Toms, Austin, and Gay. Then I will skip down to Estes for my 5th pick. Estes is a long shot as he has been off the radar chart for the past several years. However, he has steadily been playing better over the past 12 months. Hopefully, he will take advantage of a course that he plays well on this week to keep his improvement moving forward. If he plays well, then it won't look like I am picking someone from my native state of Texas only because he is from Texas....hmmmm.

Below are my 5 picks for the St. Jude Classic:

Rank	Player		CLi
1		Justin Leonard	3.10
2		David Toms	7.90
3		Woody Austin	9.90
4		Brian Gay	11.40
7		Bob Estes	18.30

Memorial Tournament

2009-06-03T13:58:00.002-06:00

This week the US PGA Tour travels to Ohio to play the Memorial Tournament -- my former boss' tournament.

Rank	Player		CLi
1		Tiger Woods	7.55
2		Zach Johnson	9.80
3		Kenny Perry	9.90
4		Jim Furyk	14.50
5		Fredrik Jacobson	14.60
6		Sean O'Hair	14.90
7		Ted Purdy	21.10
8		Luke Donald	21.25
9		Matt Kuchar	21.25
10		Vijay Singh	21.85
11		Paul Casey	22.05
12		Scott McCarron	22.45
13		John Mallinger	23.55
14		Jerry Kelly	25.70
15		Geoff Ogilvy	27.20

I am going to stick with the top 4 players in the CLi rankings: Woods, Johnson, Perry, and Furyk. Then I will skip down to Donald for my 5th pick.

Below are my 5 picks for the Memorial Tournament:

Rank	Player		CLi
1		Tiger Woods	7.55
2		Zach Johnson	9.80
3		Kenny Perry	9.90
4		Jim Furyk	14.50
5		Luke Donald	21.25

Crowne Plaza Invitational at Colonial

2009-05-26T09:09:00.002-06:00

This week the US PGA Tour stays in Texas for a 3rd week in a row to play the Crowne Plaza Invitational at Colonial in Fort Worth.

Rank	Player		CLi
1		Tim Clark	8.10
2		Rory Sabbatini	8.55
3		Jim Furyk	13.60
4		Ian Poulter	14.75
5		Kenny Perry	15.25
6		David Toms	16.80
7		Ben Crane	17.30
8		Zach Johnson	17.35
9		Jeff Maggert	17.75
10		Charlie Wi	17.95
11		Steve Marino	18.50
12		Stephen Ames	18.60
13		Paul Goydos	22.40
14		Justin Leonard	22.75
15		Sean O'Hair	23.10

I am going to stick with the top 3 players in the CLi rankings: Clark, Sabbatini, and Furyk. Then I will skip Poulter. He missed the cut last week at the Nelson and am not sure of his confidence after missing the cut. Then I will pick the next two players in the list: Perry and Toms.

Below are my 5 picks for the Crowne Plaza Invitational at Colonial:

Rank	Player		CLi
1		Tim Clark	8.10
2		Rory Sabbatini	8.55
3		Jim Furyk	13.60
4		Kenny Perry	15.25
5		David Toms	16.80

HP Byron Nelson Championship

2009-05-20T03:25:00.001-06:00

This week the US PGA Tour stays in Texas to play the HP Byron Nelson Championship in Irving (the Dallas-Fort Worth area).

Rank	Player		CLi
1		Ian Poulter	5.65
2		Ted Purdy	14.35
3		Charley Hoffman	15.00
4		Scott Verplank	17.40
5		Rory Sabbatini	17.85
6		Chad Campbell	20.70
7		Shigeki Maruyama	20.70
8		Phil Mickelson	21.40
9		Briny Baird	21.75
10		Steve Marino	22.35
11		Justin Leonard	24.85
12		Brian Davis	25.25
13		Shaun Micheel	25.80
14		Charlie Wi	27.50
15		Jonathan Byrd	27.60

I am going to pick Poulter as he seems to be a stand out in this tournament when looking at his CLi figure. He is the only player with a CLi figure under 10. Then I am going to skip Purdy, pick Hoffman, skip Verplank, pick Sabbatini, Campbell, skip Maruyama, and pick Mickelson.

Below are my 5 picks for the HP Byron Nelson Championship:

Rank	Player		CLi
1		Ian Poulter	5.65
2		Charley Hoffman	15.00
3		Rory Sabbatini	17.85
4		Chad Campbell	20.70
5		Phil Mickelson	21.40

Valero Texas Open

2009-05-12T06:43:00.001-06:00

This week the US PGA Tour heads to my native state, Texas, to play the Valero Texas Open.

Rank	Player		CLi
1		John Mallinger	11.80
2		Zach Johnson	15.75
3		Tim Clark	15.95
4		Charlie Wi	20.05
5		Justin Leonard	22.40
6		Brian Gay	23.55
7		Ted Purdy	26.60
8		Bob Estes	28.55
9		Daniel Chopra	29.40
10		Joe Ogilvie	29.70
11		Tim Wilkinson	31.15
12		Chad Campbell	31.30
13		Fredrik Jacobson	31.95
14		Charley Hoffman	35.95
15		Patrick Sheehan	36.80

None of the players have a CLi figure below 10. So there is no clear favorite in this tournament. This makes picking players more difficult.

I will stick with the first 3 players in the list. Then I will skip over Charlie Wi as I want to pick two Texans in the list: Justin Leonard (5th spot in the CLi rankings) and Chad Campbell (down the list, in the 12th spot)

Then I am going to go down the list to number 12 to pick the Texan, Chad Campbell.

Below are my 5 picks for Valero Texas Open:

Rank	Player		CLi
1		John Mallinger	11.80
2		Zach Johnson	15.75
3		Tim Clark	15.95
4		Justin Leonard	22.40
5		Chad Campbell	31.30

Note: The GolfInvestors site was taken down earlier this week (will reopen as http://golfsat.com sometime in the future). So there are no links to the site in this posting for the players or the tournament.

The PLAYERS Championship

2009-05-06T23:27:00.001-06:00

This week the US PGA Tour is playing what is calls its "5th Major": The PLAYERS Championship. It is played at the PGA Tour's headquarters in Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida on the famed TPC at Sawgrass course. The TPC at Sawgrass has the infamous island green on the 17th hole.

Rank	Player	CLi
1	Phil Mickelson	4.70
2	Kenny Perry	12.10
3	Luke Donald	15.15
4	Tiger Woods	15.75
5	Retief Goosen	17.70
6	Sean O'Hair	18.35
7	Tim Petrovic	22.90
8	Scott Verplank	23.30
9	Jerry Kelly	27.60
10	Briny Baird	28.40
11	Jim Furyk	30.45
12	Zach Johnson	31.95
13	Boo Weekley	31.95
14	Ernie Els	34.60
15	Paul Casey	35.25

I am going to with Mickelson as he is a clear favorite based upon the CLi figure (4.70). Then I am going to skip Perry as he might still have a hang over from losing the Masters playoff. However, I would love to see him play well here and win it. Then I will pick the next 3 players in the list: Donald, Tiger, and Goosen. Goosen is the question mark in this group as he has been playing well lately, but been inconsistent. Then will skip all the way down to 12th to pick Zack Johnson. He is playing well and is consistent, which should help in increasing the number of players that make the cut in my 5 picks.

Below are my 5 picks for The PLAYERS Championship:

Rank	Player	CLi
1	Phil Mickelson	4.70
2	Luke Donald	15.15
3	Tiger Woods	15.75
4	Retief Goosen	17.70
5	Zach Johnson	31.95

Quail Hollow Championship

2009-04-29T20:06:00.001-06:00

This week the US PGA Tour is in North Carolina to play the Quail Hollow Championship (formerly called the Wachovia Championship).

Rank		Player	CLi
1	S	Tiger Woods	2.35
2	S	Phil Mickelson	8.25
3	S	Geoff Ogilvy	8.45
4	S	Nick Watney	20.80
5	S	Rory Sabbatini	22.70
6	S	Anthony Kim	23.40
7	S	Trevor Immelman	23.55
8	S	Lucas Glover	24.40
9	S	Steve Marino	25.80
10	S	Steve Flesch	26.60
11	S	John Senden	28.65
12	S	Retief Goosen	29.25
13	S	Charles Howell III	30.20
14	S	Robert Karlsson	33.35
15	S	Bo Van Pelt	33.50

No explanation provided this week...as I am behind in my activities.....

Below are my 5 picks for the Quail Hollow Championship:

Rank		Player	CLi
1	S	Tiger Woods	2.35
2	S	Phil Mickelson	8.25
3	S	Geoff Ogilvy	8.45
4	S	Rory Sabbatini	22.70
5	S	Steve Flesch	26.60

Zurich Classic of New Orleans

2009-04-22T09:26:00.001-06:00

This week the US PGA Tour moves to the Louisiana bayou to play the Zurich Classic of New Orleans.

Rank		Player	CLi
1	S	Nick Watney	7.50
2	S	Charles Howell III	11.55
3	S	John Merrick	16.10
4	S	Steve Stricker	19.60
5	S	Lucas Glover	20.30
6	S	Scott Verplank	21.40
7	S	John Mallinger	24.15
8	S	John Senden	25.15
9	S	Ryan Moore	25.90
10	S	Tim Wilkinson	27.00
11	S	Daniel Chopra	28.30
12	S	Justin Rose	29.60
13	S	Kenny Perry	29.95
14	S	Tim Petrovic	33.00
15	S	Lee Janzen	33.45

As with last week, I am going to go with the top 5 in the CLi rankings. Watney, Howell, Merrick, Stricker, and Glover all look like good candidates to play well this week.

Below are my 5 picks for the Zurich Classic of New Orleans:

Rank		Player	CLi
1	S	Nick Watney	7.50
2	S	Charles Howell III	11.55
3	S	John Merrick	16.10
4	S	Steve Stricker	19.60
5	S	Lucas Glover	20.30

Verizon Heritage

2009-04-15T15:08:00.002-06:00

This week the US PGA Tour slows down a bit after experiencing a high energy level of last week's Masters. This week's event is the Verizon Heritage in Hilton Head Island, South Carolina.

Rank		Player	CLi
1	S	Brett Quigley	8.00
2	S	Charles Howell III	11.15
3	S	Jim Furyk	12.00
4	S	Kevin Na	12.35
5	S	Ernie Els	15.10
6	S	Robert Allenby	18.00
7	S	Matt Kuchar	20.85
8	S	Camilo Villegas	21.35
9	S	Scott Verplank	22.95
10	S	Bo Van Pelt	27.70
11	S	Jerry Kelly	28.95
12	S	Jason Bohn	29.15
13	S	Ben Crane	29.30
14	S	Mark Wilson	31.50
15	S	Justin Leonard	32.30

I am going to go with the top 5 in the CLi rankings. My only question was Els, as he missed the cut last week at the Masters. He plays well at Hilton Head, however, he missed the cut last week at the Masters. In looking at the tournaments leading up to his solid finishes at Hilton Head in the past, he played poorly as well. So am going to include him in my picks based upon the fact that he plays well on this course. The other 4 players either are playing solidly leading up to this week or play well on this course. It is a tight course with small greens. So it favors players that are accurate and have a strong short game.

Below are my 5 picks for the Verizon Heritage:

Rank		Player	CLi
1	S	Brett Quigley	8.00
2	S	Charles Howell III	11.15
3	S	Jim Furyk	12.00
4	S	Kevin Na	12.35
5	S	Ernie Els	15.10

The Masters

2009-04-08T07:07:00.003-06:00

This week the US PGA Tour heads down Magnolia Lane in Augusta, Georgia to embrace the year's first major, The Masters. It should be a good one with many of the prominent players hitting on all cylinders.

Rank		Player	CLi
1	S	Tiger Woods	2.15
2	S	Phil Mickelson	2.75
3	S	Nick Watney	6.35
4	S	Paul Casey	12.60
5	S	Retief Goosen	12.80
6	S	Luke Donald	16.10
7	S	Ernie Els	16.55
8	S	Fred Couples	18.15
9	S	Zach Johnson	18.30
10	S	Sean O'Hair	19.50
11	S	Padraig Harrington	19.60
12	S	Justin Leonard	21.65
13	S	Stewart Cink	21.80
14	S	Geoff Ogilvy	21.95
15	S	Robert Karlsson	22.05

As usual, the CLi rankings for a major look good. However, there are two favorites going into the week: Tiger Woods and Phil Mickelson. Both of their CLis for the tournament are less than 3. That is a good indicator that they both will play well. As such, it would be foolish of me to pass up either one of them. So I start my picks by getting the two big guns out of the way. I pick Woods and Mickelson

I am going to pass up Watney, even though he has been playing well. His experience in the Masters is limited.

Then I am going to pick Casey and Goosen. Both players have won in the past several weeks. Casey won last week at the Shell Houston Open, and Goosen won 3 weeks ago at the Transitions Championship in Florida.

I would pick Donald. However, his wrist injury draws up a big question mark in terms of how he will play this week.

However, in sticking with a European for my 5th pick, I am going to go with Harrington. He is the current reigning British Open champion and the current reigning PGA champion. So if he does win this week, he will have won 3 majors in a row.

Below are my 5 picks for The Masters:

Rank		Player	CLi
1	S	Tiger Woods	2.15
2	S	Phil Mickelson	2.75
3	S	Paul Casey	12.60
4	S	Retief Goosen	12.80
5	S	Padraig Harrington	19.60

Shell Houston Open

2009-04-01T06:25:00.001-06:00

This week the US PGA Tour takes a jump from the east coast to the southwest (Texas) to play the Shell Houston Open. It is the last tournament before the Masters, and any player not already in the Masters' field will earn an invitation to the tournament. So there is some urgency in the air in Houston for those players seeking to get into the first major of the year.

Rank		Player	CLi
1	S	Steve Stricker	6.75
2	S	Phil Mickelson	10.50
3	S	Geoff Ogilvy	12.05
4	S	Charley Hoffman *	16.50
5	S	K.J. Choi	20.85
6	S	Mathew Goggin	24.20
7	S	Padraig Harrington	26.65
8	S	Kevin Na *	27.45
9	S	Hunter Mahan	27.55
10	S	Jeffrey Overton *	27.55
11	S	Ben Crane *	28.15
12	S	Anthony Kim	28.35
13	S	Charles Howell III *	29.80
14	S	Davis Love III *	30.75
15	S	Bo Van Pelt *	31.50

* - denotes players that are not in the Masters field at this time (before the start of the Shell Houston Open).

Only one player has a CLi figure below 10. So this means that it will be another tough tournament to pick which players will play well as there is no clear support in the data which players will play well this week.

I opened this blog saying there was some urgency for players not already in the Masters to play well this week. Almost half of the players in the top 15 in the CLi rankings (7 players) are not in the Masters field. So in picking players this week I will take that into consideration.

The top 5 players in the CLi rankings all look good. I was going to drop one of them if all 5 were in the Masters field. However, Hoffman is in the top 5 in the CLi rankings and is not in the Masters field. So that means I can go with the top 5 and have 4 players that are in the Masters field and 1 that is not. Maybe Hoffman will pull out a victory to earn an invitation to the Masters next week.

Note: Urgency can be a negative, as it makes some players push too much. So the urgency arguement could be turned around and used as a deterrent to playing well down the stretch. When watching this tournament let's see which players use urgency to their advantage, and which ones "over use" it in a fashion that it hurts their chances of playing well

Below are my 5 picks for the Shell Houston Open:

Rank		Player	CLi
1	S	Steve Stricker	6.75
2	S	Phil Mickelson	10.50
3	S	Geoff Ogilvy	12.05
4	S	Charley Hoffman *	16.50
5	S	K.J. Choi	20.85

Next week is the Masters, the first major of the year. Since the field for the Masters is already in place except for one player (the winner of the Shell Houston Open), the field has already been entered into the GolfInvestors system. So you can take a look at the current field analysis at this time to get a head start on analyzing the Masters' field.

Arnold Palmer Invitational

2009-03-25T05:07:00.003-06:00

This week the US PGA Tour moves to Orlando, Florida to play Arnie's tournament: The Arnold Palmer Invitational.

Rank		Player	CLi
1	S	Tiger Woods	9.25
2	S	Sean O'Hair	13.15
3	S	Kenny Perry	15.40
4	S	John Rollins	15.95
5	S	Robert Allenby	16.05
6	S	Jim Furyk	18.10
7	S	Retief Goosen	21.90
8	S	Nick Watney	27.15
9	S	Scott Verplank	27.85
10	S	Mark Wilson	28.35
11	S	Jerry Kelly	30.80
12	S	D.A. Points	30.80
13	S	Jason Dufner	31.00
14	S	Charles Howell III	31.70
15	S	Andres Romero	32.15

In the top CLi rankings, I am going to pass on Perry and Rollins.

Below are my 5 picks for the Arnold Palmer Invitational:

Rank		Player	CLi
1	S	Tiger Woods	9.25
2	S	Sean O'Hair	13.15
3	S	Robert Allenby	16.05
4	S	Jim Furyk	18.10
5	S	Retief Goosen	21.90

Transitions Championship

2009-03-18T12:50:00.001-06:00

This week the US PGA Tour moves up the Florida coast (and from the east side to the west side of the Florida coast) to play the Transitions Championship.

Rank		Player	CLi
1	S	Mark Calcavecchia	9.90
2	S	Sean O'Hair	10.85
3	S	K.J. Choi	11.55
4	S	Kenny Perry	12.00
5	S	Tim Clark	13.55
6	S	David Toms	21.40
7	S	Rod Pampling	24.65
8	S	Nick Watney	28.05
9	S	Matt Kuchar	30.35
10	S	Heath Slocum	31.75
11	S	Kevin Na	32.35
12	S	Steve Stricker	32.85
13	S	Brian Gay	35.55
14	S	John Senden	36.15
15	S	Lucas Glover	36.70

Only Mark Calcavecchia has a CLi less than 10, and just barely (9.90). So this means that this tournament will be a tough one to make good picks as there are no clear favorites.

I am going to pass on Calcavecchia even though he is at the top of the CLi rankings. He has been playing well lately, but I am not sure if he will be able to keep up his energy level for this tournament. So I am going to pass on him. Then I will pick the next 5 players in the CLi as they look solid.

Below are my 5 picks for the Transitions Championship:

Rank		Player	CLi
1	S	Sean O'Hair	10.85
2	S	K.J. Choi	11.55
3	S	Kenny Perry	12.00
4	S	Tim Clark	13.55
5	S	David Toms	21.40

Puerto Rico Open

2009-03-11T12:43:00.002-06:00

As mentioned in my previous post, this is another "two-tournament" week for the US PGA Tour. My previous post was on my picks for the CA Championship which is being played at Doral in Florida. This post is for my picks for the Puerto Rico Open.

Rank		Player	CLi
1	S	Kevin Stadler	4.90
2	S	Jerry Kelly	8.25
3	S	Ted Purdy	14.80
4	S	Bo Van Pelt	21.65
5	S	John Merrick	23.90
6	S	Jeffrey Overton	32.55
7	S	Chris Smith	37.15
8	S	Joe Durant	37.25
9	S	Mark Brooks	37.50
10	S	Tim Wilkinson	39.20
11	S	Jeff Klauk	42.10
12	S	Rich Beem	43.00
13	S	Chris Riley	44.30
14	S	Jason Day	47.10
15	S	Nicholas Thompson	49.95

Interesting that Kevin Stadler is on the top of the CLi rankings list. I would not have imagined him being there. However, in looking at his analysis for the tournament (see Stadler analysis) it shows he played well here last year (finished 4th) and has played well in his previous two tournaments (Mayakoba Classic - 20th; AT&T Pebble Beach - 14th). So I will stick with him even though it seems like an odd pick.

I will also go with the 2nd player in the CLi rankings list: Jerry Kelly. He finished 2nd here last year. However, he missed the cut last week at the Honda Classic. One of my concerns with picking Kelly is that he might be wanting to play at Doral too much this week, as that is where the big boys are playing. And thus, he might lose his focus on playing well in Puerto Rico. This point might be put to bed in the fact that he played well in the Mayakoba Classic (he finished 6th), which was played opposite another World Golf Championship event -- the Accenture World Match Play. So I am going to stick with him this week.

I am going to pass on Purdy and van Pelt. Then will pick Merrick and Overton. Merrick has been playing solid this season, and Overton is proving he can play well in windy conditions (wind will most likely be a factor this week in Puerto Rico, just like last week at the Honda Classic).

For my final pick, I am going to go all the way down to the 12th spot in the CLi rankings to pick Rich Beem. This pick is more for supporting his cause of getting sponsors on his own this year, which is courageous in itself these days. Hopefully his hard work will pay off this week.

Below are my 5 picks for the Puerto Open Open:

Rank		Player	CLi
1	S	Kevin Stadler	4.90
2	S	Jerry Kelly	8.25
3	S	John Merrick	23.90
4	S	Jeffrey Overton	32.55
5	S	Rich Beem	43.00

CA Championship

2009-03-10T08:08:00.003-06:00

This is another "two-tournament" week for the US PGA Tour. The CA Championship is being played at Doral in Florida. The Puerto Rico Open is a fairly new tournament which is only in its second year.. This post is for picks regarding the CA Championship. I will submit another post for the Puerto Rico Open later.

Rank		Player	CLi
1	S	Geoff Ogilvy	6.40
2	S	Zach Johnson	10.55
3	S	Tiger Woods	14.05
4	S	Phil Mickelson	14.40
5	S	Paul Casey	16.00
6	S	K.J. Choi	17.40
7	S	Robert Allenby	17.90
8	S	Kenny Perry	20.15
9	S	Steve Stricker	22.80
10	S	Luke Donald	22.95
11	S	Retief Goosen	23.55
12	S	Tim Clark	24.75
13	S	Jim Furyk	25.25
14	S	Sergio Garcia	25.40
15	S	John Rollins	25.95

The top 5 players in the CLi rankings all look like good picks to me. It is hard to go agains Ogilvy, Woods, and Mickelson at Doral. And then Johnson and Casey have been playing some good golf lately and they shine in big events like this. So I am going to trust the CLi completely this week and not make any adjustments.

Below are my 5 picks for the CA Championship:

Rank		Player	CLi
1	S	Geoff Ogilvy	6.40
2	S	Zach Johnson	10.55
3	S	Tiger Woods	14.05
4	S	Phil Mickelson	14.40
5	S	Paul Casey	16.00

Honda Classic

2009-03-03T06:50:00.003-07:00

This week the US PGA Tour moves from the west coast to the east coast for the start of the Florida swing of tournaments. As with last year, the Honda Classic is the first tournament in the Florida swing this year.

Rank		Player	CLi
1	S	Luke Donald	3.75
2	S	Mark Wilson	7.50
3	S	Ernie Els	13.80
4	S	Robert Allenby	13.85
5	S	Camilo Villegas	14.55
6	S	Boo Weekley	16.25
7	S	Lucas Glover	18.45
8	S	Ben Crane	18.55
9	S	Mark Calcavecchia	20.55
10	S	Justin Rose	24.40
11	S	Michael Letzig	26.05
12	S	Jerry Kelly	27.30
13	S	Ted Purdy	30.05
14	S	J.J. Henry	31.25
15	S	Justin Leonard	34.50

I really want to pick Luke Donald this week as he is a clear favorite on paper and in the CLi rankings. However, it makes me nervous that he "twinged" his wrist last week during his last match in the Accenture World Match Play. He "twinged" his wrist to an extent that he flew to New York the next day (or over night) to have his specialist look at it. It makes me a little worried that he would jump that fast. Even though the specialist said nothing serious is wrong with his wrist, I am going to pass on Donald this week.

Going from the 2nd spot in the CLi rankings, I am going to pick the next five players. Wilson won last week in the US PGA Tour event in Mexico and won the tournament in 2007. Els plays well in Florida and he now has his house in the West Palm Beach area (where the Honda is now played). Allenby is playing well. Villegas plays well in Florida, as it is second home (apart from Columbia). Weekley is a fan favorite in Florida and south Florida is home to him as is the entire state (even though he is from the panhandle of Florida).

Below are my 5 picks for the Honda Classic:

Rank		Player	CLi
1	S	Mark Wilson	7.50
2	S	Ernie Els	13.80
3	S	Robert Allenby	13.85
4	S	Camilo Villegas	14.55
5	S	Boo Weekley	16.25

Mayakoba Classic

2009-02-25T05:19:00.005-07:00

This week the US PGA Tour has two tournaments: the Mayakoba Classic in Cancun, Mexico and the Accenture World Match Play in Tuscon, Arizona. This post is for the Mayakoba Classic (view post for Accenture event).

Rank		Player	CLi
1	S	Brian Gay	3.00
2	S	Cliff Kresge	16.20
3	S	Richard S Johnson	16.90
4	S	Brendon De Jonge	18.50
5	S	Scott Piercy	19.00
6	S	Shigeki Maruyama	19.65
7	S	Cameron Beckman	20.45
8	S	Bill Haas	20.45
9	S	Chris Stroud	21.75
10	S	Michael Letzig	22.65
11	S	John Merrick	24.60
12	S	Mark Brooks	25.75
13	S	Kevin Stadler	26.25
14	S	Vaughn Taylor	26.70
15	S	Matthew Jones	28.30

The Mayakoba Classic is a littler easier to make picks for as opposed to the Accenture World Match Play....thank goodness. However, that said, I probably jinx myself with picks for this tournament. Let's hope not, or my words on this page will be worthless.

Brian Gay is a clear favorite. He plays well in this event south of the American border. His CLi figure supports that fact in that it is the lowest for the field, the value is low (3.00), and the closest player to him (Kresge) has a CLi 13 points higher (16.20). So I am definitely going to pick Brian. I will also pick the next 3 players in the CLi list: Kresge, Johnson, and De Jonge. For my final pick, I am going to drop down to the 8th sport and pick Bill Haas.

Below are my 5 picks for the Mayakoba Classic:

Rank		Player	CLi
1	S	Brian Gay	3.00
2	S	Cliff Kresge	16.20
3	S	Richard S Johnson	16.90
4	S	Brendon De Jonge	18.50
5	S	Bill Haas	20.45

BTW: I see Mark Brooks is in the Top 15 CLi rankings. It would be nice to see him win this event. If he did, it would be known for a tournament that veterans use to catapult themselves onto the Champions Tour, like Fred Funk did with this tournament in 2007.

Accenture World Match Play

2009-02-23T08:24:00.005-07:00

This week the US PGA Tour has two tournaments: the Accenture World Match Play in Tuscon, Arizona and the Mayakoba Classic in Cancun, Mexico. This post is for the Accenture World Match Play.

Rank		Player	CLi
1	S	Geoff Ogilvy	19.70
2	S	Zach Johnson	22.00
3	S	Steve Stricker	25.45
4	S	Kenny Perry	26.10
5	S	Tiger Woods	26.55
6	S	Henrik Stenson	26.95
7	S	Paul Casey	28.00
8	S	Robert Karlsson	28.20
9	S	Sean O'Hair	29.80
10	S	Luke Donald	29.85
11	S	K.J. Choi	30.50
12	S	Ian Poulter	30.70
13	S	Adam Scott	31.45
14	S	Mike Weir	31.80
15	S	Martin Kaymer	33.40

This week is another hard week to pick as the CLi figures are rather high (just like last week), and it is a match play tournament. The CLi figures are all over 10, which again means that the CLi calculation can't figure out a clear favorite. As well, match play tournaments are a lot more difficult to pick as there is less room for error by the players. If a player has a bad round, or just a couple of bad shots, they lose the match and don't move on. Remember, players at the professional level are only separated by less than two strokes when it comes to ranking the first player in the world and the 125th player in the world. Then when you look at the top 64 players in the world, there is even less than two strokes. However, in this case, I see that it is about two strokes as well. Take a look at the following link and focus on the section called "Scoring Average Leaders for the Previous 52 Weeks" (note: you will have to have an account on the Gi site to be able to access the full list of players in the event).

[ Accenture World Play Field Analysis on GolfInvestors ]

In the "Scoring Average Leaders for the Previous 52 Weeks" section, you will see that the top ranked players in the stroke average over the past year is Tiger Woods with a stroke average of 69.31. The second player in the list is Kenny Perry, who is a half stroke higher than Woods with a stroke average of 69.91. Since Tiger is an anomaly, and he has not played a professional event since the last June (over 8 months ago), let's use Perry as the top player in the list. Then you look at the 64th player in the list, Trevor Immelman, and you see his stroke average is 71.63 over the past 12 months. The difference between Perry's stroke average and Immelman's stroke average is 1.72 (71.63 - 69.91). That is less than two strokes.

What I am trying to get at in a long winded explanation, is that 2 shots missed on two separate holes in match play can cause a player not to move on to the next round. It is not like they can make up the 2 shots the next day. They are finished for the tournament and are sitting on the sidelines for the rest of the week. That makes picking winners for a match play event difficult.

For my picks, I am going to pick Ogilvy (he is hard to go against in match play), skip Johnson and Stricker, pick Perry, skip Woods, pick Stenson and Casey, and then will pick Choi for my last pick.

Ogilvy is hard to go against in match play. Perry is playing well and has a strong mind in match play. Plus he is a steady player, and that tends to get players far in this match play event as opposed to being streaky. Stenson is strong in this event and in match play in general. Casey is playing well leading up to this tournament. Choi is playing well leading up to this tournament, having finished 3rd last week in the Northern Trust Open. However, he is a little streaky with the putter. So he is a risky pick; am hoping he gets puts well in the first two rounds to at least get to play on Friday and possibly in a weekend match or two.

Not picking Tiger will probably urk some people. Tiger is great at match play, but it is difficult to pick him since he has been out of competition for so long. his mind could be a little weaker than his usual self. however, hopefully he does well and proves me wrong in this one. I like a good comeback story....not that Tiger needs a comeback as he is always in our minds when it comes to professional golf.

Below are my 5 picks for the Accenture World Match Play:

Rank		Player	CLi
1	S	Geoff Ogilvy	19.70
2	S	Kenny Perry	26.10
3	S	Henrik Stenson	26.95
4	S	Paul Casey	28.00
5	S	K.J. Choi	30.50

Northern Trust Open

2009-02-17T22:55:00.002-07:00

The US PGA Tour stays in California this week to play the Northern Trust Open in L.A.

Rank		Player	CLi
1	S	Mike Weir	11.90
2	S	Steve Stricker	16.70
3	S	Chad Campbell	17.55
4	S	Tim Clark	18.30
5	S	Lucas Glover	22.60
6	S	Zach Johnson	23.35
7	S	Jim Furyk	25.30
8	S	Padraig Harrington	26.65
9	S	Matt Kuchar	27.15
10	S	Luke Donald	29.30
11	S	Rory Sabbatini	30.90
12	S	Ernie Els	31.75
13	S	Shigeki Maruyama	31.80
14	S	Scott Verplank	32.25
15	S	Nick Watney	35.85

This week the CLi figures are rather high. None of the players have a CLi figure less than 10. That usually means that there are no clear favorites this week, which makes picking players tough.

I am going to skip over Stricker (even though I am a fan of Stricker and he is a fellow UofI alum). In addition I am going to skip over Clark and Johnson.

Below are my 5 picks for the Northern Trust Open:

Rank		Player	CLi
1	S	Mike Weir	11.90
2	S	Chad Campbell	17.55
3	S	Lucas Glover	22.60
4	S	Jim Furyk	25.30
5	S	Padraig Harrington	26.65

AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am

2009-02-10T17:24:00.001-07:00

This week the US PGA Tour moves up the coast of California to play the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am

Rank		Player	CLi
1	S	Mike Weir	5.25
2	S	Tim Clark	8.90
3	S	Davis Love III	16.95
4	S	Padraig Harrington	18.65
5	S	Bo Van Pelt	19.60
6	S	Nick Watney	23.05
7	S	K.J. Choi	24.45
8	S	Dustin Johnson	24.90
9	S	Matt Kuchar	27.25
10	S	Charles Howell III	27.95
11	S	Jim Furyk	28.70
12	S	Hunter Mahan	33.00
13	S	Steve Flesch	34.50
14	S	Tom Pernice Jr	36.10
15	S	Vijay Singh	37.60

This week I am going to go with the top 4 in the CLi rankings. Then I want to skip down to Furyk for my 5th pick. Furyk plays well here. However, there is a little bit of risk in picking him as this is his 2009 debut on the US PGA Tour. So he might be a little rusty. Let's hope that rust turns into some extra motivation for him to play well this week.

Below are my 5 picks for the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am:

Rank		Player	CLi
1	S	Mike Weir	5.25
2	S	Tim Clark	8.90
3	S	Davis Love III	16.95
4	S	Padraig Harrington	18.65
11	S	Jim Furyk	28.70

Buick Invitational

2009-02-04T09:45:00.002-07:00

This week the USA PGA Tour moves to California to the Buick Invitational at Torrey Pines

Rank		Player	CLi
1	S	Charles Howell III	11.95
2	S	Rory Sabbatini	12.25
3	S	Davis Love III	14.05
4	S	Kevin Sutherland	14.35
5	S	Troy Matteson	16.20
6	S	John Senden	17.35
7	S	Steve Marino	18.70
8	S	Charley Hoffman	19.80
9	S	Brandt Jobe	19.90
10	S	Arron Oberholser	20.00
11	S	Luke Donald	21.95
12	S	Ryuji Imada	23.15
13	S	Nathan Green	24.55
14	S	Bill Haas	24.70
15	S	Charlie Wi	25.25

Last week was not a good week for my picks. It was a good week for the CLi however. 3 of the top five players in the CLi for the FBR Open placed in the top 6, with Perry winning the tournament. That would probably mean I should listen more to the CLi rankings. However, half of the players in the top CLi 15 missed the cut....hmmmm. That is perplexing. To top that off, none of the players in the top CLi 15 this week for the Buick Invitational have CLi figures below 10. That usually means that this week is open to more players playing well and thus is hard to predict who has the best chance to win. So my picks are "careful" this week.

I am going to go with the top 2 players in the CLi (Howell and Sabbatini), pass on Love, pick the next two players (Sutherland and Matteson), and then jump down to the 11th spot to pick Donald.

Below are my 5 picks for the Buick Invitational:

Rank		Player	CLi
1	S	Charles Howell III	11.95
2	S	Rory Sabbatini	12.25
3	S	Kevin Sutherland	14.35
4	S	Troy Matteson	16.20
5	S	Luke Donald	21.95