Joe's SeaBlog

Hey Big Papi

2008-07-21T23:01:00.008-04:00

It's the real Big Papi!

I don't know if people in Maine were aware, but Big Papi David Ortiz is with the Sea Dogs for a rehabilitation assignment before returning to the Red Sox at the end of the week.

OK, I guess people did get the memo:

Large Crowds outside

And in

The excitement was as thick as the Hadlock Air has ever seen for the arrival of Red Sox folk hero David Ortiz. When it was announced about two weeks ago that Ortiz, who has been out since the end of May with an injured wrist, would be playing a few games in Portland, all the remaining tickets sold out instantly. The secondary market was commanding $75 for $8 seats - this, mind you, with no actual guarantee that there would be any major league ballplayers on the field given the fickle nature of both the weather and rehab assignments. But the weather held out, as did Ortiz' wrist, and the crowd was treated to the Big Papi show that it paid to see.

Ready to wheel around the bases

Well, maybe not entirely, as Ortiz did not hit a home run, as he had done three times for the Pawtucket Red Sox in recent days. Papi did manage a two-out walk that sparked a four-run rally in the first, a laser shot single to left in the second, a moon-shot popup to second base in the fourth inning, and a broken-bat flare over the second baseman's head for an RBI single in the sixth. Papi was replaced on the base paths by top prospect Lars Anderson following the RBI single and left to a huge standing ovation. Which of course was followed immediately by a mass exodus by a large chunk of the crowd.

The wrist did not appear to be a problem.

The game itself, an 8-2 Sea Dogs victory, had a lot going on. Portland's Dave Gassner, who gave up 10 runs the other time I saw him pitch, managed to get through six with only one run allowed. In addition to Papi and Anderson, several other top Boston prospects were in the lineup. Smooth-gloved SS Argenis Diaz, who was called up at the same time as Anderson, didn't get many opportunities in the field but did manage to get on base three times. OF Josh Reddick made his AA debut count with a two-run single on the third pitch that he saw. And reliever Daniel Bard tipped 99 on the radar while striking out two in an inning of relief. On the Connecticut side, the most notable events were SS David Maroul committing three errors, and starting pitcher Joey Martinez somehow managing to get into the sixth inning despite throwing 49 pitches and allowing six runs through the first two.

All this was secondary to Big Papi, however. Portland fans have two more days to enjoy this before he's back in Portland and the Sea Dogs grind on without him.

Rolling Rally

2008-06-19T13:41:00.005-04:00

A couple of photos from my friend/colleague Meg, who works across from the Garden:

Not baseball related, but fun regardless. Plus, I need a host.

Back to Hadlock

2008-06-17T21:17:00.004-04:00

Tonight, for the first time in a very long time, I drove down to Hadlock Field to catch a Sea Dogs game. Other than seeing my friend Dave (who I can see without driving to Portland), and my co-worker Colin, it turned out to be a wasted trip. Oh, I did show that the old arm can still dial it up to 58 when called upon. So there was that.

Never a good sign

Sluggish Sea Dogs lose to New Hampshire

2008-04-23T20:35:00.002-04:00

Another cold Monday night at Hadlock, but not as cold as the prior one, thank goodness. It was, however, a long, sluggish affair for the Sea Dogs, who lost to the New Hampshire Fisher Cats 9-3 to end their long winning streak.

Michael Bowden was on the hill for Portland, and he turned in an "eh" performance overall. Bowden is a top pitching prospect in the Boston organization, but he's been decidedly mediocre in the games that I've seen. On Monday he featured a nice fastball in the low 90's, but his offspeed stuff was pretty mediocre, with a rolling curve ball that was fairly ineffective. Bowden had the most trouble with burly left fielder Jacob Butler, who tagged him for a two-run homer and a bases-loaded double. Butler finished with four hits on the night, as did right fielder Ryan Patterson, who is ranked as Toronto's #10 prospect by Baseball America.

Toronto's #1 prospect, Travis Snider, made his AA debut in the game. He got a single, but also struck out three times. The young slugger (only 20 years old) was called up from Dunedin after starting the year with four homers and a .557 slugging percentage in his first 17 games there.

Portland's offense didn't show much, other than first baseman Sandy Madera. The brawny Can-Am league reclamation project had two hits, including a double, and two walks on the evening.

Chad Rhoades pitched well out of the Sea Dogs bullpen once again. New Hamshire's Seth Overbey pitched three shutout innings in relief, allowing just two base runners. One was erased on a double play. The other was RF Jay Johnson, who greeted Overbey with a line drive to the gap in right-center, then was tagged out when he fell stricken with an injured leg between first and second base. Johnson was carried of the field by Madera and John Otness and was placed on the DL following the game.

Masterson vs. Bowden

2008-04-22T14:48:00.003-04:00

John Sickels has a "prospect smackdown" between Justin Masterson and Michael Bowden. He projects the two youngsters, currently atop the Portland rotation, both to be #3-type starters in the big leagues.

Masterson has been more dominant than Bowden this year. In fact, the game I saw him pitch was the only time he allowed anybody to score. I saw Bowden pitch last night (more on that tonight or tomorrow), plus a few times last season, and he's overall been less impressive in the games that I have seen. He seems to alternate between putzing around and having truly dominant innings, with middling results. That said, his stats bear out that he has generally pitched better when I am not around. (The Curse of the Sea Blog?) And I have to remind myself that he is still very young for AA (just 21 years old) and holding his own at this level.

(I also have to remind myself that it's not easy to pitch in the cold weather these guys have been playing in thus far.)

I'm going to go with Sickels in saying that Masterson might be more of a sure thing, because he's got this nasty, bat-breaking sinker that will work at any level. Bowden's going to have to develop a bit more polish with his offspeed offerings, because a low-90's fastball that doesn't sink is a little easier for major league hitters to get good wood on. Bowden's changeup and curveball are already pretty good, so the potential for very goodness is there.

Back in the Sea Dogs Way

2008-04-17T20:56:00.003-04:00

There are lots of things going on right now, but the baseball season has started again and I'm back to scoring Sea Dogs games - albeit in a reduced capacity this time around.

My first venture to Hadlock Field came Monday night, a 5-4, 11-inning affair with the Connecticut Defenders in cold, 40-degree weather. This was my first chance to see Justin Masterson in person. Masterson started last year in A Lancaster, where he pitched unreasonably well in the high desert jet stream. Upon arrival in Portland he had a few dominant starts before having a few rough outings to end the season.

Masterson started out well this year, winning the Eastern League Pitcher of the Week Award for the opening week of the season for allowing no runs in two starts. Masterson wasn't quite as dominant on Monday. He allowed two runs on five hits and his first two walks of the season. Regardless, his heavy sinker splintered several bats, and he couldn't have been fun to face in such cold weather. He was a lot better than opposing starter Adam coward, who was shelled in his three-inning stint. The Sea Dogs led 4-2 before Beau Vaughan gave up the tying runs in the top of the 8th, which ultimately sent the game into extra frames.

(Note: while this added a good half hour to the game and was very frustrating at the time, it was nothing compared to Wednesday's game, in which Jose Vaquedano allowed the tying run in the top of the 9th. Neither team scored again for the next 8 (eight!) innings. At 5 hours and 41 minutes, this broke the record for the previous longest game in franchise history.)

The Sea Dogs ultimately ended it in the 11th when two strikeouts were followed by two singles and a walk to load the bases. Iggy Suarez was the hero for drawing a walk-off wild pitch pitch from Defenders reliever Justin Hedrick.

Chad Rhoades impressed with 5 K's in 2 relief innings, and Vaquedano picked up the win with a perfect 11th inning, in which he didn't throw any pitches outside of the strike zone.

Annual Monkee Review

2007-11-18T20:31:00.000-05:00

The Red Sox rode strong pitching and a solid offense to their second World Series Championship in four years. The feeling throughout the season was that the offense in general failed to live up to expectations. Was that true? We here at the SeaBlog have a projection system that we call the Monkee, and it’s time now to see how well the Monkee did at projecting the 2007 Red Sox.

Catcher: Jason Varitek (age 36)
482 PA 267/365/452 17HR 67 RC 2007 Monkee Projection
518 PA 255/367/421 17 HR 70 RC actual

We were looking for a bounce-back season for Varitek following a dismal 2006 season, and the captain did bounce back for a decent season. Before the season I suggested that the Monkee might be a bit optimistic and that turns out to have been the case. The increased walk rate might actually be a big red flag for Varitek, as it could be a sign that he is losing confidence in his swing and looking more to take a walk. His HR total was right on the projection, but his power continued to flag as it did in 2006 (IsoP of .167 vs. .162 in 2006). ‘Tek remained healthy throughout the season, which is a good sign, but his offense is no longer the asset it once was.

First Base: Kevin Youkilis (28)
395 PA 277/381/425 8HR 53C 2007 Monkee
650 PA 277/381/425 13HR 87 RC 2007 Joe’s SeaBlog projection
625 PA 288/390/453 16 HR 100 RC Actual

Youkilis continued to improve at the plate, despite a heavy swoon in the second half. His BA/OBP were basically in line with the projection, but Youk yanked a few extra homers to build up his SLG.

Second Base: Dustin Pedroia (23)
45 PA 191/355/303 1HR 3RC 2007 Monkee
650 PA 280/360/420 10 HR 85RC Joe’s SeaBlog prediction
581 PA 317/380/442 8 HR 91 RC Actual

Since the Monkee had little to work with, we simply made up a projection for Pedroia’s rookie year. Dustin surprised even the SeaBlog in hitting well over .300 on his way to the Rookie of the Year Award. Pedroia’s walk rate was a bit lower than expected, which I think is a reflection of his being a little too patient and falling behind early in the count. When he swings, he tends to put the ball in play - Pedroia was the second-most difficult player in the league to strike out – and fortunately with solid contact. Obviously he has good strike zone judgment, and I think his walk rate will improve as he gains experience.

Third Base: Mike Lowell (33)
611 PA 272/335/447 19HR 83RC Projection
653 PA 324/378/501 21 HR 109 RC Actual

The Monkee wasn’t the only one – I don’t think anybody saw this season coming from Mike Lowell. The steady third baseman took advantage of the friendly confines of Fenway Park and a.337 batting average on balls in play (BABIP), which was 50 points better than his career average. In other words, it was a fluke season. But a good fluke to have, as Lowell capped things off by being named Most Valuable Player in the World Series.

Shortstop: Julio Lugo (31)
589 PA 289/346/408 9HR 75RC projection
630 PA 237/294/349 8 HR 63 RC Actual

The Monkee and I were certain that Lugo would be a significant improvement over Alex Gonzalez with the bat. The Monkee and I were wrong. Lugo was the Anti-Lowell, with a BABIP of 50 points below his career norms (.262 vs. .312). Combine this with a walk rate right in line with his career norms and a strikeout rate actually a bit lower than normal, and I see a rebound coming for 2008.

Left Field: Manny Ramirez (34)
611 PA 308/411/608 40HR 127 RC Projection
569 PA 296/388/493 20 HR 91 RC Actual

Manny not being Manny. The BA and OBP were hinted at in the 2005 season, but Manny’s power numbers were far and away the worst of his illustrious career. The silver lining is that the home run swing came back in the post season. Here’s hoping it was lingering injury effects and not a permanent slide in his ability.

Center Field: Coco Crisp (26)
538 PA 285/328/430 12HR 71 RC Projection
591 PA 268/330/382 6 HR 69 RC Actual

Coco Crisp was another guy from whom we were looking for a return to form in 2007, but it didn’t happen. The power stroke that saw him hitting 42 doubles and 16 homers in his last season in Cleveland never appeared. In its place, unfortunately, was a slappy speedster swing from a guy who didn’t get on base all that much. Coco appears to have played himself out of a job after Jacoby Ellsbury hit .353 in 33 late-season games.

Right Field: JD Drew (31)
510 PA 289/408/518 20HR 89 RC Projection
552 PA 270/373/423 11 HR 77 RC Actual

Another guy of whom I was confident that he could at least outperform the guy he replaced (in this case Trot Nixon), but that didn’t really happen. Drew’s BA and OBP were lower than his career norms and about the same that Nixon provided in 2006. While Drew did out-power Nixon, his slugging percentage was well below his career standards, and even then was only salvaged by a September power surge. It is that September performance (4 HR, 1.072 OPS) that has me optimistic for him next year.

Outfield: Wily Mo Pena (25)
327 PA 275/326/499 17HR 48 RC Projection
172 PA 218/291/385 5 HR 16 RC Actual

Uhh, if you include what Wily Mo did following his trade to the Nationals in August, the Monkee doesn’t look so bad. But, no. WiMP was a no-show for the Sox. Thank goodness Jacoby came along and made us forget about him.

DH: David Ortiz (30)
691 PA 294/401/618 49 HR 143 RC Projection
667 PA 332/445/621 35 HR 156 RC Actual

Practically everybody in Red Sox Nation thinks that Big Papi had an off season. This is primarily because both his home run and RBI numbers were down from previous years. This is far from the truth, however. Papi’s batting average and OBP were absolutely huge, and the lumbering DH scored 30 runs more than his closest teammate (Pedroia with 86). The popular conception is that Mike Lowell and his 120 RBI was Boston’s MVP, but it’s really Papi in a landslide.

The 10 projections break out as follows:
Too pessimistic: 2 (Pedroia, Lowell)
Too optimistic: 5 (Lugo, Ramirez, Crisp, Drew, Pena)
About right: 3 (Varitek, Youkilis, Ortiz)

It’s a continuing trend for the Monkee to be somewhat optimistic. Unfortunately, we don’t have the time or ability to figure out where things usually go wrong. In this case, two of the guys were new to Boston this season, two were injured last year, and one guy never got to play. We’ll call it “extenuating circumstances” for all five!

Pedroia Named AL Rookie of the Year

2007-11-13T20:17:00.000-05:00

For the second consecutive year a former member of the Portland Sea Dogs was named Rookie of the Year. This time around it was long-time SeaBlog fave Dustin Pedroia who ran away with honors in the American League, taking 24 of 28 first place votes and easily outdistancing Tampa Bay outfielder Delmon Young.

Last year, Pedroia's former Portland teammate Hanley Ramirez captured the National League honor as Florida's shortstop. A third member of that 2005 squad, Jonathan Papelbon, was runner up in the AL last season.

Pedroia overcame a slow start to finish the season with a 317/380/442-8-50 line. Pedroia held his own in the middle of a veteran-laden lineup. He was third on the team (and 10th in the AL) in batting average, 4th on the team in OBP and second with 39 doubles and 86 runs scored. He didn't draw walks at the same clip we saw from him in the minors, but he did walk more than he struck out (47 vs. 42), indicating good strike zone judgment and an excellent ability to put the ball in play. Pedroia led all qualifying AL rookies in average, slugging percentage, runs scored, doubles and OPS, and he was second in OBP. He also capably handled the leather at second base, exhibiting good range and a strong arm, and committing only six errors.

Two other Red Sox, Japanese import pitchers Daisuke Matsuzaka and Hideki Okajima, also received consideration, finishing 4th and 6th respectively.

On Tuesday it was announced that former Sea Dog Josh Beckett had finished second behind Cleveland's CC Sabathia for the AL Cy Young Award. Beckett's chances were done in by Sabathia's 40+ advantage in innings pitched. Ironically, this may have been the difference that allowed Beckett to dominate throughout the post season while Sabathia was hit hard. Boston fans will take Beckett's contribution to another World Championship any day.

Sea Dogs Win World Series

2007-10-29T18:28:00.000-04:00

Rather, a bunch of former Portland Sea Dogs players helped lead the Boston Red Sox to their second World Championship in four years. In a somewhat stark contrast to the 2004 championship squad that featured only two home-grown players (if you exclude Curt Schilling, who took an extended hiatus from the organization and made his name elsewhere), the '07 Champs featured a core of six players who toiled in Portland in recent years. The list includes center fielder Jacoby Ellsbury, who called Portland home as recently as five months ago.

This is even better than Portland, guys!

As a fan who first started following these guys during their AA service, perhaps the most exciting thing is knowing that I will be able to follow them for several years and, perhaps, several more championships.

Certainly Ellsbury and Dustin Pedroia will combine at the top of the order cause fits for opposing pitchers for some time now. Pedroia has received considerable press in this blog, despite the fact that he was in Portland for less than three months back in 2005. After a slow start that saw him hitting below .200 and sharing time with Alex Cora, Pedroia got hot and stayed that way, finishing at 317/280/442-8-50 in 139 games and the front runner for AL Rookie of the Year. He batted leadoff for much of the second half of the season, but slid easily behind the super speedy Ellsbury for the last couple games of the World Series. Ellsbury got in a couple of games during the summer, then became a fixture in the lineup following a September callup. All he did was hit 353/394/5093-18 with nine steals in 33 games, and set up expectations that he will be the 2008 ROY.

I think Pedroia will be a .300 hitter for years to come, but let me say this right now Red Sox fans. Ellsbury is a great player, and will have a terrific career. But he's not going to hit .350 in the major leagues.

A third former Sea Dog was another fixture in the lineup. Kevin Youkilis, whose Portland tenure predates this blog, played flawless defense at first base and was a solid bat. Famously dubbed "the Greek God of Walks" by Billy Beane, Youk was part of a relentless on-base attack with a final line of 288/390/453-16-83.

Three other ex-Dogs were integral parts of the staff. Two established themselves in the second half of the season. Manny Delcarmen was brought up for good in mid-June and finally settled in as a major league pitcher and provided a solid setup arm. In 44 games, Manny D had a 2.05 ERA and 1.04 WHIP while striking out nearly a batter an inning. Jon Lester's career was derailed in 2006 by a cancer diagnosis. Lester thankfully beat the disease and made a quick comeback this season. The results were mixed on both the major league and minor league level, but in the end he started 11 games for Boston and posted a 4-0 record with a 4.57 ERA and 1.46 WHIP. He made real progress during the year, culminating with a terrific 5.2 IP, zero runs performance in gaining the win in the World Series clincher.

The third former Dog on the staff was the anchor of the bullpen. Jonathan Papelbon had one of the most dominant seasons by any major league pitcher in 2006, but ended the season with an arm injury. The Sox at first planned to make him a starter for this season, then changed their minds when nobody else could establish himself as the closer during Spring Training. Pap was back with a new training regime and careful handling by manager Terry Francona and pitching coach John Farrell. The result was another terrific season: 1-3, 37 saves in 40 tries, 1.85 ERA, 0.77 WHIP and a phenomenal 84 strikeouts in 58.3 innings. Papelbon earned three saves in the World Series and had a legitimate claim on the Series MVP award that was presented to Mike Lowell.

In addition to these six players, many other ex-Sea Dogs made at least token appearances with the eventual champions. Kason Gabbard made several starts before he and David Murphy were traded to Texas. Clay Buchholz made the most of a spot start by no-hitting the Orioles. Brandon Moss, Jeff Bailey and Devern Hansack also saw some action during the season.

Of course there was one other former Sea Dog who played a part in Boston's success this season, but he's not a home-grown guy. Josh Beckett was 8-1 in 13 starts for Portland back in 2001 when the Dogs were affiliated with the Florida Marlins. All he did for the 2007 Red Sox was win 20 games with a 3.27 ERA and establish himself as perhaps the front runner for the Cy Young Award. In the postseason, Beckett won all four of his starts by allowing only four runs in 30 IP (1.20 ERA), striking out 35 and walking only two in the process. Unbelievable.

So Portland celebrates Boston's latest Championship today, one that is even sweeter because of all the guys who played at Hadlock Field over the years.

Bowden is sharp in Sea Dogs victory

2007-06-16T10:23:00.000-04:00

I saw my first game in awhile last night (my busy schedule, Sea Dogs on the road), a nice 9-3 victory for the Sea Dogs over the Akron Aeros. It was a rematch of last season's championship series, and though the teams are quite different now, both have a chance to return to the playoffs this year. The Aeros lead the EL South with a 38-27 record, and while the Sea Dogs are just one game above .500 and 11 games out of first place, they are tied with New Britain for second place in the EL North.

The Portland bats came alive for four home runs, but the story was the best AA performance to date for 20-year-old Michael Bowden. Bowden, who was clobbered last time out in Akron, and who had yet to really show off his potential, was in command from the start last night. He pitched 6.2 innings (his longest AA start) and allowed just three hits and two walks while striking out 8. The only blemish on his outing was in the fourth inning, when Jay Johnson failed to pick up a fliner by Argenis Reyes off the bat, allowing him to reach on a single. This was followed by a stolen base and a fielding error by Iggy Suarez on which Reyes came around to score. Bowden was charged with an earned run, but should have gotten out of the inning unblemished.

Portland hasn't hit a lot of home runs on the season. In fact, coming into last night, Eric Crozier was the only player on the roster with more than two. There is the very strong likelihood that only one player will reach double-digit homers on the season, and even that's tenuous considering the fact that Crozier is simply filling space on the roster and is hitting a meager .224 with one-and-a-half times as many strikeouts as hits. A midseason promotion of Aaron Bates, who has 17 dingers in hitter-friendly Lancaster, could spell the end of Crozier's playing time. So it was quite surprising that for Dogs went deep last night. Dusty Brown charged into second place on the team with his third home run in the fourth, then Zach Borowiak and Bryan Pritz both hit flyballs over the short wall in left during a five-run sixth inning. Pritz' shot was particularly impressive, as it might have traveled 320 feet. Crozier, feeling pressure from Brown, hit a legitimate shot in the 8th for his sixth homer and the final two Portland runs.

Notes:

Bowden was terrific, but it was difficult to get a read for his stuff as the Hadlock radar gun was all messed up. He throws a heavy sinker in the low-90's, which was evidenced by his 9-2 groundout/flyout ratio. I couldn't tell much else about what he was throwing. He tried a couple of curveballs that were well out of the zone and didn't impress much. According to his profile, he has a 12-6 curve, tight slider and plus changeup. Without the radar, however, I couldn't tell much about what he was throwing effectively.
Sloppy play, with five errors committed on the evening. Akron starting first baseman Jordan Brown was charged with a "life isn't fair" error when he lost a throw from third base in the setting sun.
There was also a tough twilight sky, which led to Johnson misplaying Reyes' hit in the fourth inning. The sky was bad enough that a ball landed about 15 feet away from me and I had no idea where it was until it hit the concrete.
Akron CF Trevor Crowe was ejected for arguing strikes in the fifth, which led to four position changes in the bottom of the inning.
Rehabbing major leaguer Cliff Politte started the game for the Aeros, walking one and striking out the side in his only inning of work.
Former Boston pitcher, and current Red Sox minor league instructor Al Nipper was in attendance to watch his young prospect perform.
I forgot my camera, so no pix of one of the top prospects in the system!

Dogs to face Rocket

2007-05-21T20:57:00.000-04:00

The Rocket, Roger Clemens, is scheduled to continue his preparation for his 24th (!) major league season by making a start for the Trenton Thunder against the Sea Dogs this Wednesday. Clemens' return is already a bit of a circus, and I'm sure that the Red Sox/Yankees dynamic of this game will just add to the excitement of the evening. Clemens, of course, signed on with the Yankees a couple of weeks ago when the team, desperate for pitching, outbid the Red Sox for his services by $10 million.

Portland will counter with Clay Buchholz, another top prospect at the other end of his career. Buchholz has been stellar thus far through his first seven AA starts: 39.2 IP, 1.87 ERA, 0.82 WHIP, and 53 strikeouts vs. just 7 walks. Clemens had a good outing for single A Tampa, allowing one run in 4 IP, and he's on his way to the Hall of Fame, but there's a chance he won't be the best pitcher on the mound on Wednesday.

In other prospect news, Michael Bowden was promoted to Portland last week. Bowden is the #3 prospect in the Boston organization, right behind Buchholz and Pawtucket outfielder Jacoby Ellsbury. A powerful righthander, the 20-year-old dominated the competition in the very hitter-friendly California League. He made 8 starts for Lancaster, throwing 46 innings with a 1.37 ERA, 0.93 WHIP, and 46 K's vs. just 8 walks. He allowed just one run in his Sea Dogs debut last Friday, and gives the team a strong 1-2 punch at the top of the rotation for the time being.

Four Games in a Week

2007-05-13T21:19:00.000-04:00

I've had a busy schedule this week, so I've been unable to provide my usual immediate commentary following the Sea Dogs games that I've gone to. So, in a nutshell, four games in six days:

Tuesday night:
The Sea Dogs sweep a double header from Trenton. Game one is an ugly affair, with Portland prevailing 11-7. Eric Crozier hits a grand slam in the second inning to give Portland the lead. The bullpen makes things interesting, as Barry Hertzler takes over with the bases loaded in the 5th, and allows all inherited runners to score. The seven inning affair featured 24 hits, 11 walks, a HBP and an error, and lasts 2 hours and 45 minutes.

Game two was much more crisp, with the Dogs winning by a 5-0 score. John Barnes is the newest knuckleballer in the Boston system, and he baffles a Trenton squad that, quite frankly, doesn't seem all that interested in trying to hit his offerings. Barnes is a former outfielder who spent some time in the majors with Minnesota, and he's still quite raw as a pitcher. He only allowed two hits but walked five. Trenton's Kevin Whelan throws three consecutive wild pitches to allow Jed Lowrie to score Portland's third run in the sixth inning.

The Thunder arrived in Portland with a 21-4 record and would leave Wednesday with a 21-8 record.

Friday Night:
This one started out pretty, but ended very ugly. Clay Buchholtz, who is Boston's top pitching prospect, set a Portland franchise record by striking out eight consecutive Binghamton Mets from the second inning through the fourth. Buchholtz displayed an awesome combination of a low-mid 90's fastball and a sharp-breaking curve, with the occasional slider thrown in to mix things up. Buchholtz gave up two runs, one unearned, in 6.2 innings while walking one and striking out 11. It was all for naught, as poor bullpen work and poor defense allowed the Mets to score 6 runs in the final two innings. Bryce Cox relieved Buchholtz in the seventh, but was ineffective in the 8th. After two hits and an error led to a run, Hertzler came on to allow two more inherited runners to score, partly as a result of his own throwing error on a would-be double play. In the ninth, Hertzler seemed to have recovered from an error by Andrew Pinckney, however inexplicably allowed two two-out walks before allowing Miguel Negron to hit a bases-clearing double. Binghamton finished with a 8-5 victory.

The lesson from the game is that four errors will undo the good done by a bunch of strikeouts. Despite the continued failure for the offense and bullpen to support him, Buchholtz has proven to be equal as a pitching prospect to the triumvirate of Papelbon, Lester and Sanchez back in 2005. Through 34 innings of work, Buchholtz has allowed just 22 hits and four walks, while striking out an incredible 34 batters. Despite a 1-1 record, it says here that he'll be in Pawtucket by July.

Sunday Afternoon.
Mother's Day brought Slugger's mom to the park, and some pink jersey's for the home nine, to raise awareness of and raise money to combat breast cancer. Then pink itself was kind of pleasing, but didn't really work with the bright red trim:

Zach Borowiack calls out to the fashion police.

The finale of the series with Binghamton featured more poor fielding and ineffective bullpen work, as the Mets completed the sweep with a 12-6 victory. Starter Andrew Dobies pitched OK, leaving after five innings with a 6-3 lead. Kyle Jackson pitched the 6th and retired the first two batters before a hit batsman, error, and double led to two runs. In the 7th, Jackson worked three walks around a sacrifice and a strikout, before Beau Vaughan came to allow rockets to various parts of the outfield. When the dust settled, all of Jackson's runners had scored, along with three of Vaughan's.

Portland's offense scored what should have been plenty of runs in the games against the Mets, but it's hard to focus on any sort of offensive production when the pitching and defense are so bad. The bullpen is a real problem for this team - they allowed 21 runs in the last three games against the Mets, though 10 of those runs were unearned. Cox and Jackson are supposed to be two of Boston's better relief pitching prospects, but they have been awful thus far. Cox sports a 4.91 ERA, but that belies the fact that he's also allowed 6 unearned runs (to go with 8 earned) and has a 1.77 WHIP. Jackson has a 7.56 ERA, a WHIP around 2.00, and he's allowed 20 walks in 16.2 innings. Barry Hertzler was a star in the Sea Dogs pen last season, and numbers are a little better (3.27 ERA, 1.45 WHIP), but he's allowed five inherited runners to score in just the last two games that I've seen him pitch. These are the supposed best arms in the bullpen. It's hard to envision the Sea Dogs having any kind of success at all without these three turning things around in a hurry.

Ellsbury Recalled, Dogs Lose Thursday

2007-05-05T10:32:00.000-04:00

Ellsbury photo cribbed from Seadogs.com.

The Portland Sea Dogs lost Thursday night to the Bowie Baysox, in what would prove to be the final AA game for top prospect Jacoby Ellsbury. Ellsbury went out in typical style, going 2-4 at the plate with a walk and a stolen base, moving his final stats to 452/518/644-0-13 with 8 steals and 13 runs scored. Ellsbury also showed his ranginess in center field, tracking down any ball that came close by, however it was not enough to avoid a 7-3 Portland loss at the hands of the Bowie Baysox.

In his AAA debut on Friday night, it was more of the same for Ellsbury. 1-4 with two walks and two runs scored. David Murphy, moved to left field and apparently feeling the heat from below with regard to his spot on the organizational depth chart, had four hits in Pawtucket's 11-inning loss.

Back to Thursday night's game, it was a bit of a tough-luck loss for Matt Goodson. Goodson had the Baysox off balance for much of his five innings, striking out 10 with his off speed offerings, particularly a very good changeup. Unfortunately, Goodson's control left him in the fifth inning, as he walked two to load the based for Luis Hernandez. Hernanez delivered his second consecutive RBI single, a liner to left that skipped under Corey Keylor's glove and resulted in four runs and a Bowie lead. Portland was unable to get any rallies going after that point.

Now that Ellsbury is gone, this is a very ordinary Portland team. Jeff Corsaletti is the natural guy to move into the leadoff spot, as he has good speed and draws a lot of walks, resulting in a very good .400 OBP to this point of the season. However, this team needs Jeff Natale (703 OPS) and Jed Lowrie (508 OPS) to start making things happen, because Keylor can't be the only guy hitting in the middle of the lineup, and there aren't a lot of quality bats at bottom of the order. Also, beyond Clay Buchholtz and Charlie Zink, the rotation has been a disappointment. Andrew Dobies and Tommy Hottovey showed some promise after they were called up late last season, but both have ERA's over 6.00 so far this year. Goodson is probably the least touted member of the rotation, but he has outpitched Dobies and Hottovey thus far. The bullpen has also been inconsistent at best so far.

I think there will be a lot of entertaining games to watch this season, but unless a few guys turn it around fairly soon or Michael Bowden get called up to team with Buchholtz for awhile, I don't think this team will put in a strong challenge for the playoffs.

Finally Some Sunshine

2007-04-29T11:21:00.000-04:00

After sitting through the rain and cold on Friday night (and the cold a couple of weeks ago), I along with a few thousand other fans, was finally rewarded with some decent weather Saturday afternoon. The Sea Dogs felt good about the weather, taking their second straight from New Hampshire with a 10-5 victory. Cory Keylor was the star of the show this afternoon, going 3-5 with a home run and 5 RBI. Old friend Charlie Zink was equally strong on the rubber, pitching six shutout innings, allowing only five base runners and striking out five.

Portland faced another of New Hampshire's top pitchers, lefty David Purcey. Purcey's prospect shine has dimmed a bit since he first came to New Hampshire a couple of years ago. He's still a good stuff/poor command guy, though he does seem to have a better handle on his curve ball these days. (He also has slimmed down a bit since he first appeared in the league.) Purcey alternated good innings with others where he allowed Portland hitters to string together base runners. His biggest problem was an inability to handle Keylor.

While Zink was impressive, Bryce Cox was not. This was my first look at Cox, who is listed as Boston's #4 prospect. Cox struggled mightily in throwing strikes, and when he did throw them they were hit hard, even for outs. In 1 1/3 innings, Cox walked three, hit a batter, and allowed three hits, including a towering three-run home run over the scoreboard in left-center field by David Smith. Mike James was called upon to get the last five outs of the game.

Notes:

Jacoby Ellsbury was a bit of a disappointment, getting only one hit (an RBI double) and one walk. Hey, when a guy comes into the game hitting .468, you expect better.
This version of the Sea Dogs is going to bother opposing pitchers. They take a lot of pitches and draw a lot of walks. When aboard, they run the bases aggressively and make things happen with their speed. In addition to Ellsbury, Jeff Corsaletti is a guy who particularly relies on his speed to make things happen. Corsaletti has already shown an ability to lay down a bunt along with avoiding double plays by hustling down the line. It's the variety of small ball that fans find enjoyable.
Case in point on taking pitches - out of 38 batters for the Sea Dogs in the game, only three swung at the first pitch, and only a handful more swung before taking a strike.
New Hampshire CF Dustin Majewski is another speedy guy who takes a lot of walks. However, he hasn't been too successful in hitting the ball when he doesn't walk. Since arriving in AA in the middle of last season, he has nearly as many walks as hits. You can do that if you're Barry Bonds. If you struggle to hit .230 in AA, pitchers won't let you get away with the walks for long.

Dogs Play Despite Rain, Defeat NH

2007-04-29T10:45:00.000-04:00

After causing seven of the first ten home games to be postponed (and the other three to be played in wintry temperatures), mother nature finally cooperated and allowed the Portland Sea Dogs to play the first two games of the latest home stand. Well, sort of cooperated. Friday night's game was played in a steady drizzle/rain and a temperature around 40 degrees, but team officials said, emphatically, "we're playing the damn game!"

The Sea Dogs were undeterred, and overcame the rain and a brief failure of a light bank to defeat the New Hampshire Fisher Cats 6-2. Jacoby Ellsbury was the star of the show, reaching base five times on four hits and a hit by pitch, and scoring two runs. Ellsbury's batting average stood at .468 following the game. Portland faced off against New Hampshire's top prospect (#3 in the Toronto system) Rickey Romero. Romero was OK, though it's tough to make much judgment given the conditions. The lefty featured a 90-mph fastball and a sharp curve. Unfortunately for him, the curve ball often failed to travel the requisite 60 feet, 6 inches, and the balls in the dirt beat up catcher Robinzon Diaz and contributed to a lot of activity on the basepaths from Sea Dogs runners. Diaz didn't help matters much by short-hopping every throw to second. Portland runners finished with three steals, one with an additional advance due to a Diaz error, and two bases taken on wild pitches.

Portland pitcher Matt Goodson was equally OK. I was most impressed by his sinker, which resulted in 10 ground ball outs (one DP) vs. 3 fly ball outs. Portland's bullpen received solid efforts from Kyle Jackson and Beau Vaughan, both of whom pitched two shutout innings in relief. New Hampshire's bullpen struggled, particularly in the bottom of the eighth innings. Zack Borowiak started things off with a single that coincided with the failure of the lights behind the first base dugout. Following a 15-minute delay (that felt like a half hour for those of us sitting in the rain), the Dogs took advantage of a loss of command by Cats reliever Jo Matumoto. Matumoto walked #9 batter Bryan Pritz and allowed a bunt single by Ellsbury before walking in two runs. Tracy Thorpe was then hailed from the bullpen, and he immediately issued another bases-loaded pass, giving Portland a four-run cushion for the ninth inning. Vaughn then dispatched the side without incident.

Notes:

Ellsbury is really impressive, and I don't suspect he'll be in Portland for long. He has tons of speed, and his game is built around it. In addition to his bunt grounder, he had an infield hit in the 6th. He also turns singles into doubles and causes a lot of commotion on the basepaths. He's got some pop in his bat, but I don't think that he'll ever be a big home run hitter. He also covers a lot of ground in center field. He's really a prototype center fielder / leadoff hitter. Ellsbury currently leads Portland in BA, OBP, SLG, runs, RBI, doubles and stolen bases. It's looking like he's too good for this league.
Eric Crozier looked terrible at the plate in striking out four times from the cleanup spot, but he still managed to finagle a walk to knock in Portland's fifth run of the game.
New Hampshire reliever Jean Machi is a dead ringer for Rich Garces and Edgar Martinez, therefore worthy of the nickname El Guapo III.

Prospects on the Sea Dogs

2007-04-23T21:47:00.000-04:00

Between all the rainouts and away games, there's not been a lot momentum at the Sea Blog. I thought I would fill the void by going back to John Sickels' listing of Boston's top prospects heading into this season, and see who is on the Portland roster.

1) Jacoby Ellsbury, OF, B+. Good bat, good glove. Through yesterday's games, Ellsbury was tearing up the EL to the tune of 455/500/705-0-9 with 9 extra base hits and four steals through 10 games. He could play himself up to Pawtucket before the All Star game.

2) Clay Buchholtz, RHP, B+. "Good combination of stuff and command," which makes him sound a bit like Jonathan Papelbon. He's only made two starts for Portland, with a 3.82 ERA, 1.14 WHIP and 10/2 K/BB ratio in 9.2 innings pitched.

10) Bryce Cox, RHP, B-. A reliever, but not a closer. He's another guy that I haven't seen pitch. Cox has been effective thus far. He's appeared in four games without allowing a run over 7 innings pitched.

17) Jed Lowrie, 2B/SS, C+. He's got good on-base skills, but disappointed a bit last season. Through nine games, he's hitting 212/270/364-1-3.

19) Jeff Natale, 2B, C+. Another diminutive (5' 9") middle infielder who is surprisingly good with the bat. Just 147/333/176-0-2 through the first 10 games, but the six walks belie good plate discipline. Last year, Natale hit 304/446/469-17-87 with 103 walks between Greenville and Wilmington. At 24, he's a little on the old side for a prospect, but if he continues to hit he'll have a career.

Others of note: OF Jeff Corsaletti (303/395/364-0-6); LHP Tommy Hottovy (6.00 ERA in 9 IP); RHP Kyle Jackson (9.64 ERA with 7 walks in 3.2 IP);

Dogs First Win, part two

2007-04-12T22:00:00.000-04:00

Good seats still available

Above was the scene at Hadlock Field, as a sparse crowd braved the cold temperatures (43 degrees at game time - hah!) to watch the final game of the series between the Sea Dogs and the New Britain Rock Cats. Those few who stayed the full nine witnessed a rather humdrum game won by the Sea Dogs 8-5 for their first victory of the season.

This was a game without a lot of intrigue. Perhaps part of that is because I didn't do my homework to see who on the Rock Cats is a top prospect. Perhaps another part of that is because I am a fan of good pitching, and last night wasn't a good night to be a pitcher. It appeared that the pitchers were struggling to get a feel for their breaking stuff, whereas the wind blowing out made for a small field. The hard throwers could benefit from nerve-jangling inside pitches on a cold night like this, but I didn't see too much of that happening. Neither starting pitcher lasted more than four innings, with Portland starter Andrew Dobies taking to the bench after just three innings and 70 pitches thrown.

In taking a quick look at the New Britain roster, along with John Sickels' list, it appears that there are a couple of decent pitchers on the Rock Cats roster, which makes sense in Minnesota's pitching-rich system. None of these guys (Anthony Swarzak, Brian Deunsing or Jose Mijares) pitched in this game, but one position player (3B David Winfree, #19 on Sickels' list with a "C" grade) started as DH. Winfree had an OK game, with a pair of identical ground ball singles between third and short and a pair of strikeouts on the night.

Portland's top position player prospect was in the lineup of course. Jacoby Ellsbury had a decent game, with two hits (including a double) and an RBI. His double was actually hit pretty softly, while his RBI single was a rocket off the glove of third baseman Gil Velazquez. He's looking good early, and I won't be surprised if he is promoted prior to the All Star game.

Notes:

According to the message board, Velazquez is in his 7th Eastern League season. That's a lot of time in AA - not really good enough to be promoted, but good enough (and versatile enough) to keep a job.
Portland 3B Andrew Pinckney got a lot of action. Sometimes he looked sloppy, sometimes he looked good. I don't suspect he's as good a fielder as Chad Spann was last year, but he seems to have pretty good range. It's hard to tell based on just one game, of course, and a cold one at that.
New Britain cleanup hitter Matt Allegra didn't put a single ball in play all night, with two walks and three strikeouts. He did manage seven foul balls on the evening.
Tough to tell who Portland's closer is supposed to be. Bryce Cox is the top prospect in the bullpen and Kyle Jackson is another highly-regarded reliever. Mike James collected 25 saves in Wilmington last season. So naturally it was big Beau Vaughan on for the ninth inning last night to pick up his first-ever professional save.
The Red Sox update board, in previewing last night's Fenway debut for Daisuke Matsuzaka, boasted the following as the pitching matchup: Dice-K vs. Ichiro.
Finally, the promotion of the year - a lucky fan will win $25,000 in home repairs if a Portland pitcher throws a perfect game during a regular-season game at Hadlock. I'm surprised that they didn't say, "and it can't be a 7-inning game in a double header, either." That's a pretty safe $25,000.

Chilly Win for Sea Dogs

2007-04-12T08:25:00.000-04:00

I was finally able to get to my first baseball game of the year, and it was a happy ending to a cold night, as the Sea Dogs prevailed 8-5. Eric Crozier hit his first Sea Dogs home run to give the team the lead in the fifth inning and the bullpen was able to hold on. According to the box score, the game time temperature was 43 degrees, but it got a lot colder than that as the evening progressed. The saving grace was that there was no precipitation or heavy wind. The game was a bit sloppy, but I think that the weather had a lot to do with that.

I'll post a full report this evening when I have more time.

More Snow / 2007 Sea Dogs Roster

2007-04-08T20:40:00.000-04:00

It's official, game four of the opening series vs. the Connecticut Defenders was wiped out by Thursday's storm and the stubborn refusal of the temperatures to rise high enough to adequately clear the field - much to the chagrin of Sea Dogs and Defenders fans alike. The Dogs will try again Monday against the New Britain Rock Cats.

Meanwhile, we have yet to cover the 2007 Sea Dogs. 11 players return from last year's championship team, including top prospect Jacoby Ellsbury, who will patrol center field for at least the first part of the season. Ellsbury's return was necessitated by a crowded outfield in Pawtucket, which includes Portland graduates David Murphy and Brandon Moss, as well as a couple of major league veterans being stored in AAA in case of emergency. Also on the roster are top pitching prospects Clay Bucholtz and Bryce Cox, who will anchor the rotation. With returning lefties Andrew Dobies and Tommy Hottovy, Portland looks to have a strong rotation entering the season.

Infielder Jed Lowrie is another good prospect making his Portland debut. Among the surprise returnees are two pitchers who moved up to AAA last season: Chris Smith and knuckleballer Charlie Zink. Both have been here for several years before, but like Ellsbury found themselves caught up in a numbers game. As a knuckleballer, Zink still has time to develop, whereas Smith is being converted to a reliever, a role in which he may be able to throw harder than he can in pacing himself for a 100-pitch outing.

A quick review of the roster leads me to think that this year's team has the chance to be very good once again. This is a testament to the strong development system that the Red Sox have implemented in recent years.

And while there was no baseball in Portland this weekend, the Pawtucket Red Sox have begun their season, with strong contributions from Sea Dogs alums Devern Hansack and Craig Hansen.

The 2007 Monkee

2007-04-08T20:27:00.000-04:00

For the third consecutive year, I have performed the overly simplistic calculations that go into my annual Monkee projections for the Boston Red Sox. I am hoping that these projections don’t prove to be overly optimistic for the third consecutive year. Last season’s lineup was plagued by sub-standard contributions from several positions, then finally sunk by the injury that kept slugger Manny Ramirez out of the lineup for the final month of the season. With new players replacing some of the weaker links from last season and a return to form from a few others, the Red Sox are hoping to resume their normal position among the top run scoring teams in the major leagues.

Catcher: Jason Varitek (age 36)
416 PA 238/325/400 12HR 47 Runs Created 2006
482 PA 267/365/452 17HR 67 RC 2007 Monkee prediction

Varitek was the most consistent batter on the Red Sox from 2003-2005. In 2006, however, it looked like age finally caught up to him. ‘Tek suffered a huge dropoff that may have been due in part to injury, in part to his excess workload associated with the World Baseball Classic, and in part to age. At least one of those factors won’t be in play this year, and hopefully the captain can stay healthy. It’s reasonable to predict that Varitek will bounce back somewhat in 2007, but I think the Monkee is a bit optimistic with this line.

First Base: Kevin Youkilis (28)
680 PA 279/381/429 13HR 92RC 2006
395 PA 277/381/425 8HR 53C 2007 Monkee
650 PA 277/381/425 13HR 87 RC 2007 Joe’s SeaBlog projection

Youkilis had a good year at first base for the Red Sox last year, providing an expected solid OBP with little pop and a good glove. His lack of power keeps me from thinking of Youkilis as an asset in the lineup, but one could certainly do worse. Since last season was his first as a full-time player in the majors, the Monkee is pessimistic on this playing time. Youkilis seems to be a pretty durable guy, so I’ve projected out more playing time. I think Youkilis will likely exceed his predicted line, making up for Varitek’s probable shortfall.

Second Base: Dustin Pedroia (23)
703 PA 285/344/361 5HR 77RC 2006 Mark Loretta
45 PA 191/355/303 1HR 3RC 2007 Pedroia Monkee projection
650 PA 280/360/420 10 HR 85RC Joe;s SeaBlog prediction

The Monkee has very little to work with for Pedroia: 98 sub-par plate appearances. Those who have followed this blog for the last couple of years know that I am very high on Boston’s young second baseman, and I think he’ll have a pretty good year. I’ve put in what I think is a realistic and potentially conservative prediction for him. Regardless, I pretty much guarantee that he will provide more offense than Mark Loretta did last season. My pet peeve over the winter was listening to Red Sox fans wonder why the Sox were going with Pedroia, instead of re-signing Loretta and letting Pedroia have another year in AAA. The great misconception is that Loretta had a good year last season, while Pedroia proved that he wasn’t ready for the big show. On count number one, I say bollocks – Loretta did a good job of putting the ball in play, but his punch-and-judy act was no asset to the lineup. On count number two, I also say bollocks. Pedroia hit for a low average, but he put the ball in play and was not overmatched by major league pitching. Furthermore, he had a terrific season at AAA. There is nothing to be gained by having him return to the minors, and there is no reason to think that he won’t provide more offense (and probably better defense) than Loretta did last season.

Third Base: Mike Lowell (33)
631 PA 284/339/475 20HR 92RC 2006
611 PA 272/335/447 79HR 83RC 2007

Lowell had a nice bounceback last year following a disastrous 2005 season in which he hit only 8 home runs for the Marlins. Lowell had a typical Mike Lowell season last year, but the Monkee thinks he’ll fall back a little bit, and I tend to agree. My other pet peeve over the winter relates to people who suggested that Lowell’s second-half struggles are indicative of a continuation of his downward career spiral. In fact, Lowell’s first- and second-half splits almost exactly matched his career norms. I think Lowell will continue to provide a good glove and decent bat from the 6^th or 7^th spot in the lineup in 2007.

Shortstop: Julio Lugo (31)
429 PA 255/294/397 9HR 45RC 2006 Alex Gonzalez
589 PA 289/346/408 9HR 75RC 2007 Lugo projection

Lugo probably won’t provide the same defense as Gonzalez, but the 50-point improvement in OBP will more than offset any potential downgrade with the glove. Lugo will assume leadoff duties for the Sox, and should provide a fine spark at the top of the order.

Left Field: Manny Ramirez (34)
558 PA 321/439/619 35HR 124RC 2006
611 PA 308/411/608 40HR 127RC 2006

Manny was having a tremendous season before a controversial injury basically ended his season in August. He’s a great hitter, and he’ll have another great season with the bat this year, but his erratic behavior is wearing thin among Red Sox fans, this one included. And he has to hit to have value, as he is among the worst fielders in the league. Here’s hoping for 150+ games with a 1,000 OPS and fans again being happy with Manny being Manny.

Center Field: Coco Crisp (26)
452 PA 264/312/385 8HR 50RC 2006
538 PA 285/328/430 12HR 71RC 2007

Coco was another in a string of disappointments with the 2006 Red Sox. Crisp had a great first week of the season, then got hurt and was never the same. Ideally, Crisp will provide decent on-base skills and a fair amount of pop. If he stays healthy, expect something on the order of 85 runs created or better.

Right Field: JD Drew (31)
453 PA 268/373/394 8HR 55RC 2006 Trot Nixon
510 PA 289/408/518 20HR 89RC 2007 Drew Projection

The most controversial signing of the off season was the five-year deal that Boston gave to JD Drew. The oft-injured right fielder is seen as a “soft” player, compared to the tough-as-nails Nixon. I care more about production than having a guy run through a wall, and it’s not like Nixon is any stranger to the DL. Nixon has declined terribly in the last couple of years, and his sub-Gonzo slugging percentage was embarrassing. Drew brings terrific on-base skills and good power, and he should fit in nicely behind Ramirez. If he can stay in the lineup for 140 or more games, he’ll be a huge upgrade over Nixon this season.

Outfield: Wily Mo Pena (25)
304 PA 301/349/489 11HR 47 RC 2006
327 PA 275/326/499 17HR 48 RC 2007

If Drew or any of the other outfielders becomes injured, Wily Mo will be called upon to fill in. If everybody stays healthy, I think the plate appearance projection, and probably the rest of the numbers, will turn out to be optimistic. Wily Mo has intriguing potential, particularly in terms of power. Pena seemed to sacrifice some power for improved batting average last season. I think he’ll find more of a power stroke this year, given the opportunity to hit. He’s a nice insurance policy for the lineup.

DH: David Ortiz (30)
686 PA 287/413/636 54 HR 146 RC 2006
691 PA 294/401/618 49 HR 143 RC 2007

Big Papi had his third straight career year, so the Monkee predicts a bit of a decline for the third straight year, albeit a minor one. Nobody will be disappointed if he puts up the numbers shown above. It would be another monster season from the perennial MVP candidate.

Boston’s success this season depends largely on bounce back seasons from Varitek and Crisp, and better production from Drew, Lugo and Pedroia than was attained by their predecessors. The Monkee sees this happening pretty much across the board: Varitek +20 runs created, Pedroia +8, Lugo +30, Crisp +21 and Drew +34 add up to a whopping 103 runs more than last season. The remainder of the lineup – Papi, Manny, Youkilis and Lowell, all seem to me to be pretty consistent, with Lowell being the most vulnerable of the four. Of course, I said the same thing about Varitek last spring, and he fell off the cliff. Still, I think the lineup will be much improved and, combined with an stronger rotation, will lead to a much improved team in 2007. Later this week, I’ll look at the rotation and wrap up my (almost) pre-season predictions.

Snowed Out

2007-04-06T12:02:00.000-04:00

Put me in, coach!

Baseball season is starting, and the blogging is supposed to be starting as well. Unfortunately for me, two budgets are occupying much of my time and even more of my energy. I have my usual Monkee Predictions for the Red Sox in the pipeline, and Sea Dogs blogging will start up as soon as the season gets underway.

That has been postponed for a couple of days, however, as an April storm dumped over a foot of snow on Hadlock on what was supposed to be opening day. The field conditions made it impossible to get the game in on Friday, and I'm skeptical about Saturday. I was supposed to go on Thursday, and I'm scheduled for Saturday as well, so I might get to catch the Flag Raising ceremony after all.

Once the season gets going, hopefully I'll get back into the swing of this blog.