Saturday Sound Offs-The Blog for the College Football Junkie

Game Preview: Bowling Green vs. Buffalo

2009-11-03T13:56:00.003-05:00

When: 7:00 PM ET, ESPN2

Why You Should Care: Nothing beats a Tuesday night match up between mediocre MAC teams, right? Actually, if you think there are better things to do on a Tuesday night, you may be mistaken as this should be a competitive game. Besides Rece Davis (I'm assuming he gets the call? EDIT: Oh God, it's worse than I thought! Bob Wischusen!) whom I love in the studio but not in the booth, there's a lot to like about this game. The loser will be pretty much eliminated from the bowl chase.

Bowling Green Will Win Because...: While I'm personally disappointed that Dave Clawson has abandoned the run entirely with a back the caliber of Willie Geter, he has reason to; the passing game is stellar. Tyler Sheehan is playing pitch-and-catch with Freddie Barnes who leads the NCAA in receptions per game and receiving yards per game. Buffalo struggled in their last game against Tim Hiller, so Bowling Green should move the ball almost at will here.

Buffalo Will Win Because...: Being at home will be beneficial. For these smaller schools, the mid-week games are actually pretty big deals so the fans will be excited even if the passion is tough to translate on-screen. QB Zac Maynard has been coming along and should be primed for a big 2010, but with a player like Namaan Roosevelt to work with, Buffalo should be able to score some points against the mediocre defense of the Falcons.

Keep an Eye on...: Buffalo WR Brett Hamlin. While Roosevelt may get all of the attention, that's a good thing for Hamlin. He's been quietly productive with 50 grabs and 666 yards receiving (uh-oh). If Roosevelt demands some extra defenders, Hamlin will be crucial on the intermediate routes as a security blanket for Maynard.

And the Crystal Ball Says: I like Bowling Green in this game. I'm probably wrong again after having a pretty tough week, but the Falcons' passing game should get the job done. This is a team that will probably rally to try to make a bowl game and they should finish 6-6 with an easy remainder of the schedule. Neither defense is anything to write home about and while Buffalo's defense may be statistically better, they don't have enough game-changers to make BGSU's vaunted passing game sweat. Falcons win it, 34-28.

The Week That Was: Week 9

2009-11-02T17:05:00.003-05:00

1. Men of Troy "Quack" Under Pressure

You'd think anybody with a pair of eyeballs could have seen this coming. Actually, that's a little rough; anybody with a brain wouldn't have picked Cal to win the Pac-10 like I did, so I don't much room to talk. But it did honestly irk me when people thought things would stay normal after the offseason that USC experienced.

They were totally rebuilding on defense. This shouldn't have come as a surprise to anybody. Granted, it's the Trojans, but the minute Pete Carroll began spinning the Sanchez/NFL situation, something smelled fishy. After all, Pete Carroll has a job and a team to worry about. You bet he was banking on returning a Heisman-caliber QB to help his rebuilding team win the Pac-10 and maybe win a national title. Instead, he's taking his lumps with a true freshman QB. Even with this hiccup and an almost certain loss out on a Pac-10 championship, this USC program will return to championship form starting in 2010. As long as Carroll is recruiting at the level he is, this won't turn into a Michigan or a Nebraska who seem to be former national powers scrambling for answers.

2. Should NCAA Smoke Blount Once and For All? & Other Oregon Thoughts

Wow, I must be the king of lame puns today. Am I the only one who finds the NCAA extremely hypocritical in pondering the reinstatement of Blount (more than likely he will be reinstated) and the idea that Dez Bryant is out for an entire season? Every season the NCAA appears to be more and more of a joke. Let me get this straight: Blount displayed the worst sportsmanship in sports since Ron Artest (and would have gone into Ron Artest-mode if not restrained) and Dez Bryant "lies" about not doing anything wrong then Bryant becomes the poster boy for the NCAA to say, "you don't f*** with us!" What a joke.

Anyway, how about them Ducks? Do they even need LeGarrette Blount at this rate? LaMichael James has been out of this world. He ran for 7.6 ypc against USC. Even though as I mentioned earlier that USC is rebuilding the defense, that is still pretty incredible. Oregon racked up over 600 yards on this team in order to deliver the largest defeat in over a decade of football for USC. That is saying something, and the Ducks have earned a boatload of respect for it. I suspect that homefield has a lot to do with this though. I'm just saying if the game was in USC, it may have been an Oregon win but it would have been a lot closer. Anybody notice how Oregon State and Oregon have picked on USC over the past few years in the Beaver State? I don't want to take away from the win at all, to be clear, just mentioning something I thought was interesting. The Ducks are certainly in the driver's seat to win the Pac-10, but they might stumble once more against Arizona, Stanford, or Oregon State.

3. Black Helmets and Black Pants Couldn't Save Georgia

Well, that was expected to happen. Florida beats Georgia big. Yawn.

This is a team that wasn't expected to do more than win 7 games with their ridiculously difficult schedule and their losses on offense. However, you can also say in the same breath that they have been disappointing. Not being all that competitive in some matches, the Bulldogs haven't been remotely careful holding on to the football by challenging Miami OH for the worst turnover margin in the nation (currently stands at 119th). Now, some are clamoring for his job. I saw where there was a rumor around some message boards about canning the Georgia head coach, there is a FireMarkRicht.com already running (I think it has been for some time), and just Googling "Fire Mark Richt" will get you plenty of feisty, angered, and distraught Georgia football fans. They need to cool off. This is the first average season for Georgia under Richt. During his tenure, Georgia's worst win total was 8 in his first season at the helm. Obviously that will be surpassed in 2009, but teams have ups and downs. Hundreds of coaches would kill for Richts stats.

4. Poor Michigan State and Indiana

Holy crap. I don't think I've ever seen as many slugs-to-the-guts in one season as these two teams have endured. Even Job must feel some sympathy for the Hoosiers and Spartans. Only an act of God could keep these teams from hanging their heads and calling it quits, and in all honesty, I wouldn't blame them if they did.

Here's Michigan State's misery chronicled: Gives up last-minute TD to Central Michigan, fails to recover onside kick, gives up last-second FG to CMU. In Notre Dame territory, Kirk Cousins throws INT in end zone to lose. Michigan State scores in waning minutes only to lose to Iowa on last play of the game. Michigan State pulls to within one point of Minnesota on the road with 8 minutes of play only to give up a TD near the end of the game to lose. How about Indiana? Loses to Michigan on a blown INT call by referees after a loooong review. Obviously they got smoked by Ohio State and Indiana. Leads Northwestern 28-3 in the second quarter only to lose 29-28 on a last-second FG. Leads top 5 Iowa but loses by giving up 28 fourth quarter points. What's funny is that while Indiana is actually exceeding expectations coming into the year, Michigan State is a little more solid defense and a killer instinct away from being this year's Iowa.

5. At-Large Battles

I may be mistaken by including Kent State, who is 5-4 overall and 4-1 in MAC play, in the pool of at-large contenders, but it does depend on what they do from here on out. The Golden Flashes are having a really nice season in what basically could have resulted in the firing of Doug Martin if there weren't any results. The race in the MAC East will get really interesting if Ohio, Kent State, and Temple all finish with 7+ victories. At least one MAC school would be on the short-list for an at-large bid.

Elsewhere, the Sun Belt should be capable of fielding two bowl squads this year. Middle Tennessee is well on their way to a 7-5 mark or possibly an 8-4 record. I think the conference does have a sleeper waiting to make a run and that might very well be the UL Monroe Warhawks. Sophomore QB Cody Wells has been trying his best to replace Revell who just so happened to get knocked out before two of their biggest games of the season against possible-upset-ee Kentucky and eventual Sun Belt champ Troy, but he's doing okay. He's thrown 5 scores and 6 picks, but with more experience, those INTs should be toned down a bit. They'll be looking for at least a 6-6 mark with games coming up against North Texas and Western Kentucky, so they will have to pick off one between UL Lafayette and Middle Tennessee.

SSO's Totally Worthless Top 25:

1. Texas
2. Florida
3. Alabama
4. TCU
5. Cincinnati
6. Iowa
7. Boise State
8. Oregon
9. Penn State
10. LSU
11. Georgia Tech
12. Miami
13. Pitt
14. USC
15. Ohio State
16. Houston
17. Utah
18. Notre Dame
19. Virginia Tech
20. Arizona
21. Oklahoma
22. Wisconsin
23. Oklahoma State
24. Cal
25. USF

Others Receiving Meaningless Consideration: South Carolina, Auburn, Boston College, Oregon State, USF

Game Balls!

It's probably safe to say that Masoli has had better days operating the Oregon spread offense and while you could definitely make a case for LaMichael James to be the MVP from the Oregon/USC game, Masoli did a fantastic job managing the offense and finding weakspots in the Trojan defense. Masoli finished with 222 yards passing and a score along with 164 rushing yards and another score.

Am I nuts if I think Lance Dunbar is going to go all LaDanian Tomlinson on everybody and win a rushing title before his career is up? Only a sophomore and the backup to Cam Montgomery before the start of the season, Dunbar has taken the position by storm ranking 9th in the NCAA in rushing yards per game. Dunbar had 227 yards on 23 carries against Western Kentucky. Yes, it's Western Kentucky, but still....That's almost a first down per touch. Riley Dodge also had a stellar day.

And the gold game ball will have to go to Bernard Pierce, the RB from Temple. A lot like Dunbar, he had a similarly effective day on the ground running for 267 yards on 29 carries to go with 2 scores. He's been an integral part in Temple's turnaround and their path to make it to their first bowl game in.....Well, a really really long time.

I hate to keep bringing up Boise State and the whole BCS debate here, but let's ask the question anyway: Is it possible for a pollster to have Oregon ahead of Boise State after this week? Yes, it actually is believe it or not. As much as the rankings system is a crapshoot, you can apply whatever standard or criteria you want to in your poll, as long as you are consistent and can back it up. Because Boise State beat Oregon and is undefeated, that for me puts Boise State ahead of the Ducks. However, you could easily argue that since college football isn't defined by or confined to Team A beats Team B, Therefore Team A > Team B logic. Boise State was at home and the game was before Labor Day. Did that have anything to do with it? It's when Boise State plays at home that they play so well. They've had a lot less success on the road. The game was also before Labor Day, so we can take that into account. It was opening week after all. Maybe this Oregon team has rallied and is different than the one we saw in Weeks 1 and 2? Let's not forget, they didn't start steamrolling "everyone" until they ran into California. They beat Purdue and Utah at home by a touchdown. If you're going to rank teams on how good you think they are as of today, you'd be perfectly justified in ranking Oregon ahead of Boise. I look at things through the scope of the entire season, so I don't do that. Whatever floats your boat, I just wanted to play devil's advocate for a minute.

Word of the Week: Truculent
-adj

1. Fierce; savage; ferocious; barbarous.

This word is good for all of the rabid fans out there and impatient critics. I haven't seen this much knee-jerk reaction since that one NBA season (2003-2004?) where firing coaches was the new black. Fans of Georgia and Michigan want Mark Richt and Rich Rodriguez out immediately. This is surprising as I thought Georgia fans would recognize the amount of success they have had recently under Richt. I understand there aren't the title banners and all of that, but this is one of the healthiest teams in the SEC. Michigan on the other hand is being led by true freshman QBs, still raw position players, lineman who are still trying to get lean enough to run the spread effectively, and a defense in a state of flux. If you want to fire defensive coordinators Martinez or Robinson for being all-around incompetent, be my guest. Just give these two guys time and results will follow.

Bowl Projections: Week 10

2009-11-01T12:12:00.002-05:00

New Mexico Bowl: Idaho vs. Ohio*
St. Petersburg Bowl: USF vs. UCF
New Orleans Bowl: Troy vs. Tulsa
Las Vegas Bowl: Utah vs. Oregon State
Poinsettia Bowl: San Diego State vs. Fresno State*
Hawaii Bowl: Nevada vs. Marshall
Little Caesars Pizza Bowl: Central Michigan vs. Iowa State*
Meineke Car Care Bowl: Clemson vs. Pitt
Emerald Bowl: Boston College vs. Stanford
Music City Bowl: North Carolina vs. Tennessee
Independence Bowl: Kansas vs. Arkansas
EagleBank Bowl: Duke vs. ECU*
Champs Sports Bowl: Northwestern vs. Florida State
Humanitarian Bowl: Boise State vs. BYU
Holiday Bowl: Oklahoma State vs. Cal
Armed Forces Bowl: Air Force vs. SMU
Sun Bowl: Arizona vs. Missouri
Texas Bowl: Texas A&M vs. Navy
Insight Bowl: Michigan vs. Nebraska
Chick-fil-A Bowl: Virginia Tech vs. Ole Miss
Outback Bowl: Wisconsin vs. South Carolina
Capital One Bowl: Ohio State vs. LSU
Gator Bowl: Notre Dame vs. Miami
Rose Bowl: Iowa vs. Oregon
Sugar Bowl: Alabama vs. Penn State
International Bowl: Rutgers vs. Temple
Cotton Bowl: Oklahoma vs. Auburn
Papajohns.com Bowl: West Virginia vs. Kentucky
Liberty Bowl: Houston vs. Georgia
Alamo Bowl: Texas Tech vs. Minnesota
Fiesta Bowl: USC vs. TCU
Orange Bowl: Georgia Tech vs. Cincinnati
GMAC Bowl: Northern Illinois vs. Middle Tennessee*
BCS Championship: Florida vs. Texas

* - at-large qualifier

Yikes, I had to dip into the at-large pool here. I still don't like Kent State to qualify for a bowl game. Ohio will be 7-5, Temple might win 9 games, and Central Michigan should obviously win the MAC. Kent State could finish at 7-5, but I think they'll lose to Buffalo in the final week to finish 6-6. Northern Illinois will have a good run of games to close the year out and finish 7-5 as well and they probably have more national appeal (still limited at best). The at-larges here are Iowa State to the Motor City Bowl, Middle Tennessee to the GMAC Bowl, ECU is an alternate tie-in without a bowl eligible Army, Fresno State fills in for the Pac-10 in the Poinsettia since that bowl has an alternate tie-in with the WAC, and that's about it. One team to watch is UL Monroe who finishes the year against North Texas, Western Kentucky, a reeling UL Lafayette team, and Middle Tennessee at home. They are 4-4 right now after losing yesterday to Troy, but don't be shocked if they finish the year 7-5.

Now, onto the other stuff. Even after USC's debacle on the road to Oregon, this is still a team that should get a BCS bid. I've heard they don't travel well, but this is USC. You get them against TCU, it should be an easy sellout and garner plenty of national excitement. Alabama/Penn State is a matchup made for 1979 so that makes sense there. I think the Orange Bowl will stick to its ACC/Big East tradition and take Cincinnati over TCU.

I can't believe some publications are still picking Kansas State. They still need to win two more games. Even though they have 5 wins, two came against FCS schools so even if they beat Kansas next week which is really possible (and that's a team teetering on the brink of eligibility as well), they would have to split between Missouri and Nebraska on the road. I don't think this team will win another game but I could be wrong. Michigan State is also not going bowling. They had to take out Minnesota last week and now they stand at 4-5. They need to beat Western Michigan which should happen, but Purdue on the road is a tricky game. If they win those two, they should get in, but it'll be more difficult than it looks on paper. The Western game could be a trap one if this team discontinues their resiliency that they've shown throughout the year; the loss yesterday could be the straw that broke the camel's back. CFN and CBS also do not have Tulsa eligible. I think this is a team that should still get to 6-6 after taking one between Houston at home, Southern Miss, and ECU while finishing up against Memphis.

Okay, I admit I was wrong about Tennessee and Florida State. My problem was I needed FSU to split against North Carolina and NC State (I had NC State beating FSU) and I needed Tennessee to lose to South Carolina for my predictions to come true. Tennessee has 4 wins but they have Memphis and Vandy coming up along with a very winnable game against Kentucky. Florida State will probably lose to Clemson and Florida, but if they can beat Wake Forest and Maryland, they're in at 6-6. I came around to Duke because I was wrong about their game yesterday against Virginia as well. SMU is in after beating Tulsa. I'm a little queezy about buying into San Diego State. I had them as a bowl sleeper at 6-6, but that 6-6 included a win against Idaho which obviously hasn't turned out to be the case. They should knock off Wyoming at home, but the road game at the end of the season against UNLV is a tossup. SDSU destroyed UNLV's season at home last year and they might want to return the favor.

Game Previews: Week 9

2009-10-31T00:00:00.002-04:00

****READ: Hey sorry guys, this was as far as I got. If you're new to the site, trust me, the previews are generally lengthier and not quite as text-based :) . I started doing the previews Thursday night, but I had something come up. Previewing 22 games or so takes on average a little more than 4 hours of plotting, typing, and research to make sure everything aligns, but I do apologize for not completing this. I'll still announce my picks for the week after the jump:

Sacrificial Lambs of the Week (a.k.a, the biggest blowouts)

New Mexico State @ Ohio State

When: 12:00 PM ET, Big 10 Network

Why You Should Care: Like shooting fish in a barrel. New Mexico State will probably be drastically in over their heads here, but what if they put up a fight? It'll be interesting to see if the new life injected by Dwayne Walker will have any effect going up against a vastly superior team. Ohio State can probably take a nap in this game, but can their offense get ignited?

New Mexico State Will Win Because...: Eh, skip this part.

Ohio State Will Win Because...: One has been in the lower-rung of the Sun Belt and the WAC for about the previous 6 or 7 years while another has been making BCS runs right and left. Your call.

Keep an Eye on...: Terrelle Pryor. Can he throw the ball against New Mexico State? If he struggles, Ohio State will be in for a bumpy next two years....

And the Crystal Ball Says: This is easy. Ohio State will dominate from start to finish, especially defensively. For a group that could manage only 21 points offensively against Prairie View A&M, this defense will look like one from the NFL. I do however expect Ohio State to be in a funk offensively for at least the first quarter, but a couple turnovers and big special teams play will seal the deal in the first half. Ohio State wins, 42-3.

Coastal Carolina @ Clemson

When: 1:30 PM ET, ESPN360

Why You Should Care: How did this team lose to Maryland? Clemson is quickly appearing to be the best candidate for a division crown from the Atlantic division. Can they carry the momentum at home against the Chanticleers?

Coastal Carolina Will Win Because...: Yikes. This is a tough one. Well, at least their defense has been solid. Outside of a lopsided loss to Liberty, the unit has been pretty productive. They might keep Clemson to fewer than 50 points.

Clemson Will Win Because...: Coastal has no offense. At all. Their high point this season? They hung 28 on North Carolina A&T. They were shut out 18-0 at Kent State for the season opener. Clemson can probably call their score in this one.

Keep an Eye on...: RB C.J. Spiller. After Spiller single-handedly took down Miami last week, he should be lights out again against a much weaker opponent. He should be out of the game though after 10 carries or so if Dabo Swinney's head is screwed on.

And the Crystal Ball Says: Clemson should win this by however large they want to. This is going to be the worst blowout of the week with the Tigers winning, 62-3.

Eastern Michigan @ Arkansas

When: 7:00 PM ET, ESPNU

Why You Should Care: Can Arkansas finally muster a win? Without a break from officials against Florida or partly against Ole Miss, the Razorbacks have dropped to 3-4. They've played a tough run of games so they deserve a break and Eastern Michigan should be just that.

Eastern Michigan Will Win Because...: They can stop Ryan Mallett's passing attack.....Can they? Probably not. They .have the nation's number one passing defense so that has to count for something, right?

Arkansas Will Win Because...: As I mentioned in last week's preview of the Ball State/EMU game, the reason their pass defense looks so good is because everybody decides to run on them. They have the worst rush defense and the pass efficiency D isn't that great. I'll give them that they do have a solid pass defense for a non-BCS team, but that won't help against Michael Smith. They had one opportunity to win for the rest of the season against Ball State last week and failed at that, so they'll probably be on a downer.

Keep an Eye on...: WR Greg Childs. The sophomore receiver for Arkansas will be involved in a very interesting matchup most likely between him and Eastern DB Chris May. It will be a challenge.

And the Crystal Ball: Eastern is going to get smacked around early and this will get extremely ugly before it's over. While Eastern's pass defense will do an adequate job with what they have to work with, Mallett will still get his yards and the Arkansas rushing game will approach 250+ or maybe even 300 yards rushing. Arkansas wins easily, 56-10.

Reba on CW, or... (a.k.a., the worst televised games)

Akron @ Northern Illinois

When: 12:00 PM ET, ESPN Gameplan

Why You Should Care: Northern Illinois is still in the MAC West hunt. They have only suffered from one defeat, a one-point loss on the road to Toledo. They return home to play Akron who is struggling right now but looking better.

Akron Will Win Because...: This is still an offense that can't score, but they put up a fight last week in the Carrier Dome which tops anything they've done this year. Basically the defense has played three poor games but other than that, they've been pretty solid.

Northern Illinois Will Win Because...: The close calls over the last two weeks against Toledo and Miami OH were due to the fact that the games were outside of DeKalb. Coming back home should do the team some good. A stat to watch here is the 88th ranked rushing defense of the Zips going against Meco Brown and Chad Spann.

Keep an Eye on...: QB Patrick Nicely of Akron. Nicely is a freshman so J.D. Brookhart is not really throwing in the towel, but figured if his team was going to go down, his recruit will get a year's worth of experience along with it. Nicely will be facing the worst statistical pass defense he's seen to this point.

And the Crystal Ball Says: This game looks on paper to really suit Northern Illinois. Nicely will have a decent day, but he'll still make an occasional freshman mistake. Northern Illinois should take control on the ground and win this, while dumping Akron's record versus FBS competition to 0-7 by a score of 34-17.

San Jose State @ Boise State

When: 3:00 PM ET, ESPN Gameplan

Why You Should Care: It's not that Boise State has zero drawing power why this made "Reba on CW, or...", it's the fact that this game will be such a blowout. San Jose State has struggled mightily this year giving Dick Tomey headaches offensively and defensively.

San Jose State Will Win Because...: Since nothing they've done on the field in 2009 counts, has any program historically given Boise State more fits in WAC play? None come to mind. There was 2004, 2006, and kind of 2008. They might be 1-5, but they played tight with Utah and Idaho.

Boise State Will Win Because...: The Broncos, as we all know, are the model of non-BCS efficiency. They can mostly do no wrong defensively and the offense just churns points at will. They've had some hiccups, but still average 40 points per game. Plus, those games I mentioned? All in San Jose.

Keep an Eye on...: QB Kellen Moore. Moore is the leading player in the nation for passing efficiency and that's a testament to him as well as his offensive line. This guy is going to get a Heisman invitation before his career is done.

And the Crystal Ball Says: Boise State. B-I-G. 50-6.

New Mexico @ San Diego State

When: 7:30 PM ET, The Mtn.

Why You Should Care: Can San Diego State make a bowl game? That's about the only storyline here. If you're not interested, move along. Just kidding, but New Mexico is so bad right now.

New Mexico Will Win Because...: How did this happen? If there's ever an instance of a guy needing to be fired after one season, Mike Locksley is it. This is has been an utter disaster. Even after saying all of that, San Diego State has had their moments defensively, but isn't that great. If Donovan Porterie, the only New Mexico offensive player worth a dime, can have a good day, the Lobos might surprise here.

San Diego State Will Win Because...: Offense, and plenty of it. After shredding Colorado State to pieces last week, things are looking on the up-and-up for Brady Hoke's team. The Aztecs racked up over 530 yards of offense against the Rams last week on the road.

Keep an Eye on...: SDSU WR Vincent Brown. Brown had about 600 yards receiving last season and he's already eclipsed that mark. DeMarco Sampson had the big day last week, but Brown has been more consistent at a higher level.

And the Crystal Ball Says: This is a game San Diego State should win easily at home, but in all honesty I wouldn't put it past them to blow it. Even with that said, look for San Diego State to win by close to two scores. Aztecs take it, 37-18.

****

Pick'em-That-Should-Have-Been-Previewed:

UConn 20, Rutgers 13
NC State 34, Florida State 31
Wisconsin 42, Purdue 28
Ole Miss 37, Auburn 30
Houston 43, Southern Miss 32
Miami 36, Wake Forest 23
Cal 30, Arizona State 26
Arkansas State 31, Louisville 28
Boston College 34, Central Michigan 21
Texas A&M 45, Iowa State 27
Virginia 16, Duke 13
Temple 27, Navy 24
Texas Tech 40, Kansas 37
Florida 38, Georgia 27
Oregon State 25, UCLA 20
Kentucky 30, Mississippi State 27
Oklahoma 54, Kansas State 23
South Carolina 23, Tennessee 20
Texas 41, Oklahoma State 30
Oregon 33, USC 31
Michigan State 34, Minnesota 18

Game Preview: West Virginia vs. USF

2009-10-30T17:17:00.002-04:00

When: 8:00 PM ET, ESPN

Why You Should Care: USF needs a lot of breaks to stay in the Big East race, but in all reality, they're almost 100% toast in the conference. West Virginia on the other hand has a zero in the conference loss column and have strung together a couple nice wins throughout the season. Jim Leavitt has had WVU's number though over the past few years.

West Virginia Will Win Because...: The Mountaineers have proven that they might not drop off as far as some predicted post-Rodriguez. With athletes like Noel Devine at RB and a passer like Jarrett Brown at QB, this is an offense that has found a nice, consistent rhythm. Even though the secondary has had it kind of rough, their defensive front has done a good job at keeping running games at bay with a current rank of 9th in the nation.

USF Will Win Because...: They lost by a slim margin last season, but Leavitt always prepares his teams for the biggest statement games in the conference. It's not like they were bad against Cincinnati, but they did look hungover against Pitt last week so maybe things have changed. Getting West Virginia at home is a big bonus, but whenever dealing with USF, the opposing offensive line always has to take into account the speed coming off of the edge.

Keep an Eye on...: RB Noel Devine. Devine could be the most underrated player in the game today and it's a shame that he's not getting as much Heisman love as some other backs (cough Mark Ingram cough). He already has over 1000 total yards and 11 total touchdowns on the year.

And the Crystal Ball Says: I'm 0-2 this week. Let's make it 0-3! I'm going with the unconventional upset here and picking USF. Trust me, I can't entirely explain it, but it's the same feeling I got when I said USF would upset Florida State on the road earlier this year. B.J. Daniels is going to be wildly inconsistent in his first year, we get it. I think this will be one of his good days at making plays downfield against a so-so Mountaineer pass D. They'll probably lose by 20, but I'll pick them to win 31-28.

Texas Tech and their Fat Little Girlfriends

2009-10-30T11:27:00.002-04:00

I hate to post sole videos because it's not really worth an entire post and it lacks any kind of depth or analysis. But then, we get these and while I'm not sure how long this has been floating around the Internet, it's still pretty funny:

At what point has Mike Leach gone off the deep end? I'm just saying. Hasn't he handed out dating advice before?

I Walk the Lines: Week 9

2009-10-29T17:58:00.002-04:00

Ugh. I didn't want to go a day this week without a post, but Wednesday was busy. Crap. Anyway, I'm back with the lines I like for Week 9. With a 4-3 record last week, that puts me at 26-16. Not fantastic, but I'll take it! The lines come from College Football Poll's weekly picks.

Air Force -6 @ Colorado State - The Falcons are only favored by 6? I suppose so. Air Force is coming into this game having been extremely competitive against the tougher teams on their schedule (OT losses to Utah and Navy, 7 point loss to Minnesota, 3 point loss to TCU) which is a win for this program often a step behind athletically. Not that I want to put down their program or underestimate these guys, just pointing that out that they don't get recruited to play football entirely. Colorado State is absolutely reeling right now with five losses in a row. I'm assuming Vegas is betting that your casual bettor sees Colorado State as a solid home team such as the sports betting line at BetUs.com suggests, but they lost by 14 last week to San Diego State and got lit up defensively in the process allowing 531 yards against the Aztecs. IN COLORADO SPRINGS. That shouldn't be happening. Look for Air Force to gash this team up on the ground and win by more than 6.

Nebraska -12 @ Baylor - Pete Fiutak of College Football News has this theory about double-digit home 'dogs. That description accurately fits Baylor. While the Bears were one of this preseason's hotter picks to go 6-6 and play Navy in the Texas Bowl, the injury to Robert Griffin changed just about everything in year two of the Art Briles rebuilding project. It would be difficult to pick Nebraska to win a football game after one of the biggest debacles in college football history, and that is no understatement. With the way Iowa State played in that football game, about 80% of the FBS universe would have beaten them. But not Nebraska. With 8 turnovers compared to 0 for the Cyclones, the Cornhuskers lost 9-7. I expect them to come out somewhat flat, but when they do decide to hold onto the football, they will win this by at least two touchdowns. I'm somewhat iffy here, but can Nebraska lay an egg of that magnitude two straight weeks? Doubt it. 'Huskers win by 12+.
UL Lafayette @ Florida International -3 - The Golden Panthers have struggled this year, unfortunately. I was on the bandwagon as of a few weeks ago, but their schedule wasn't really going to allow for more than a 6-6 season. Scratch that, they're 1-6 now after getting the toughest Sun Belt teams, Toledo, Rutgers, and Alabama out of the way. There's still hope to end things on a positive note with a 4-8 record, but the defense isn't going to get the job done here. UL Lafayette is quietly but surely having a nice year capped off with a home upset of current Big 12 North leader Kansas State. The stats look horrendous for this team, but believe me, they're a little better than that suggests. After getting spanked last week against Florida Atlantic, a road upset seems like a good possibility. Still, the Golden Panthers have the 117th ranked run defense going against Undre Sails, so this should be a touchdown win for UL Lafayette in a pretty close game. Go with the Ragin' Cajuns at +3.

New Mexico State @ Ohio State -40 - This spread is probably too close for me to be anything more than relatively confident. The New Mexico State Aggies under the leadership of Dwayne Walker have had a solid season for the expectations or lack thereof in his first season. They have three wins each by a FG when many thought they had 1-11 written all over them. Ohio State on the other hand bounced back with a big win against a Minnesota team that still has a lot of work to do. This is a throwaway game for the Buckeyes who mercilessly handpicked NMSU to take a paid slaughter, but the question is how bad will the slaughtering be? I'm going to go against conventional wisdom and say that New Mexico State covers. Let's be clear, if they score a touchdown it'll be against a second-string Ohio State defense that doesn't really care, but I'm thinking that Ohio State's offensive problems will look pretty ugly in the first half. Their defense and special teams set them up very nicely against Minnesota. I mean that offensive performance was dreadful. It's not going to be a matter of the Aggies beating the Buckeyes' offense by a longshot, it's the fact that Ohio State will hurt themselves. They'll start chugging along later in the game, but I think New Mexico State will outlast the 40 point slaughter, for some reason. I'll take New Mexico State +40 with the college football line for the Buckeyes being that high.

Hawaii @ Nevada -25 - This game is gold. I got screwed after saying that Hawaii would get blown out by Boise State for 3 quarters and put the game within 24 with some garbage 4th quarter scores. Not so as Boise State put the pedal to the metal for the duration of the game. This week, I'm feeling the opposite. Sitting at 2-5, this is a Hawaii team that is not even bothering to play defense and that doesn't bode well on the road against Nevada. The Wolf Pack have had some major successes offensively at home and pretty much for the entirety of their current four game winning streak. They put on the exclamation point with a 70-45 win against Idaho. The pistol rushing attack is operating at another level and with the game in Reno, I wouldn't be surprised to see Nevada win by more than 40. Take Nevada minus 25 here.

Purdue @ Wisconsin -7.5 - Here's a head-scratcher. We all know the Badgers have lost two straight games, but they were very competitive matches against Ohio State and Iowa, two of the better teams in the Big 10 excluding Penn State. Wisconsin is coming off of a bye to play the Purdue Boilermakers who beat the aforementioned Ohio State team and Illinois in the past two weeks. It just seems to me that if Wisconsin is going to beat Purdue (which they should), it will be by more than a touchdown and the hypothetical .5 points they're being given by the oddspeople. Here's a team with John Clay and Zach Brown going up against one of the softer run defenses in the Big 10. I don't think there will be a lot of issues against the Boilermakers here and while they have some momentum, this is an average offense that won't score a lot of points. Take Wisconsin.

UAB @ UTEP -8 - In the wild and wacky C-USA, the UTEP Miners have beaten both Tulsa and Houston to stunningly take control of C-USA West. Still, they have that road loss to Memphis on their resume which doesn't look too good. Does that mean UAB will have a shot to win in El Paso? The 3-4 Miners are starting to look better overall compared to how they were playing in the opening weeks, but this isn't an offense that will blow anybody away on most occasions. They're still going up against UAB's defense which has proven to be one of the worst in the nation. Joe Webb will be squaring off against UTEP's, which is also one of the worst in the nation. While this game shouldn't be a blowout, you'd have to expect the UTEP team that beat the West frontrunners, Houston, to show up in this game. They'll give up points, but Trevor Vittatoe will have a nice day against an unchallenging Blazer secondary. UTEP will win by low-double-digits at home in a shootout.

Game Preview: North Carolina vs. VT

2009-10-29T17:33:00.003-04:00

When: 7:30 PM ET, ESPN

Why You Should Care: This game was scheduled in advance and predicted to be a marquee matchup between ACC championship contenders. Not so. With Georgia Tech's upcoming ACC schedule, the Coastal division looks locked up and North Carolina is 0-3 in conference play. That doesn't mean this won't be a good game though as the Hokies still have hopes of a BCS bowl appearance.

North Carolina Will Win Because...: How much longer can this team keep losing in the ACC? Will they be 0-4 after tonight? That's a pretty shocking W/L total so far for this team that was expected to progress from their surprising 2008 season. Even with the offensive struggles, this is still a team that is dominant against the pass and the run which Virginia Tech has been trying to find a balance between offensively. If the Tar Heels can get disruptive and keep their anemic offense in the game, that can play with VT's collective mind.

Virginia Tech Will Win Because...: This is a much, much better team in Blacksburg and they have been that way since I can remember watching football. Frank Beamer's special teams haven't been exceptional compared to other squads, but this is still a group that will hand UNC issues. Even with a solid performance against Florida State's poor defense that amounted to 27 points, they still have major issues on offense with the nations 90th ranked scoring offense.

Keep an Eye on...: VT RB Ryan Williams. Who was Ryan Williams in August? Nobody really knew, the only thing they heard about was the Darren Evans-less Virginia Tech running game. So far, the freshman Williams has averaged close to 120 yards per game rushing in what has surprisingly turned out to be one of the best running games in the nation.

And the Crystal Ball Says: Virginia Tech will smoke North Carolina. Actually, that's a tad hyperbole, but this won't be an interesting game and it should hardly be worth your time. Of course, if you're a college football junkie, knock yourself out; I'm only saying Virginia Tech has this in the bag when toe-meets-football to begin the game. Hokies dominate the Tar Heel offense and win, 30-10.

Game Preview: ECU vs. Memphis

2009-10-27T13:51:00.002-04:00

When: 8:00 PM ET, ESPN2

Why You Should Care: The C-USA East division should come right down to final week of the season, or actually that would be the second-to-last week taking into account the championship game. The Pirates and Golden Eagles should duke it out for the division lead, but this is a major trap game. Memphis has struggled, but will be eager to make a statement on national television at home.

ECU Will Win Because...: While the offense has struggled a bit, things are looking better. Granted it was against Rice, but the offense was crisp scoring 49 points in that game. Memphis' defense (ranked 93rd in the nation) and special teams have been all-around bad so far this season, so even an ECU offense that has been plodding along might hit the 30 point mark. The Pirates have allowed only 18 points per game in C-USA play so they are getting a little better in that category.

Memphis Will Win Because...: If there's a key theme you should keep in mind before this game starts, ECU has not been all that on the road so far. They are 1-3 on the road and their struggles where highlighted in a 28-21 loss to SMU in Dallas. That's just a bad loss. Memphis knocked off sky-high UTEP a couple weeks ago in Memphis. The Tigers have a big advantage with their passing game against ECU's 93rd ranked passing defense. Will Hudgens, who seems like he's been at Memphis for 8 years, has athletes like Duke Calhoun and Carlos Singleton to pitch the ball to (again, they've been here for about 8 years too). Even though the Tiger offense hasn't been firing on all cylinders, this is a good match up for them.

Keep an Eye on...: QB Will Hudgens. Hudgens, while never an exceptional QB, has enough experience running this system to put up a good day. Tommy West has been playing QB Carousel at QB with Arkelon Hall at first, then Tyler Bass, and now the senior Hudgens. He's a decent QB with some athletes at WR, so let's see if he can have a big day.

And the Crystal Ball Says: I'm getting more excited about this game the more I type about it. Which is weird, because this is after all not a top-tier C-USA game. ECU is a frontrunner for sure, but this game won't really decide much in the division as the winner of the Southern Miss/ECU game will more than likely go to the title game anyway. I do like the upset here and I changed my mind midway through the post. While C-USA East is a little more stable on a week-to-week basis compared to the West, Memphis at home has their offense and homefield advantage working in their favor. ECU will have a haunting repeat of their weekend at SMU and lose this game in a tight, somewhat sloppy game. Memphis wins it, 27-24.

"The Blind Side" Starring....Lou Holtz?

2009-10-26T19:13:00.004-04:00

Apparently. There's this new movie coming out that highlights the trials and tribulations of former Ole Miss and current Baltimore Raven OT Michael Oher. Just for clarification, I'm not doing this as an advertisement or anything and I didn't get an e-mail from the producers asking me to put in a plug for the movie. The main reason this film caught my attention was all of the cameos!

Here's the video:

I'm currently looking for the video that had Lou Holtz and Nick Saban in a more prominent role. That's floating around the TV airwaves since I was watching The Office on TBS. That show has dropped off a lot from its beginnings and I'm not as much of a fan as I was three years ago or so, but.....That's not why I'm here! By my count, we have cameos/roles from Sandra Bullock, Tim McGraw, Lou Holtz, Nick Saban, recruiting guru Tom Lemming, Phillip Fulmer, and that's about it on my count. The movie looks a little cheesy, but that's not to diminish Oher's story at all. I might have to watch this to see Lou Holtz act. I bet he wins best supporting actor at the Academy Awards next year. How about it?

The Week That Was: Week 8

2009-10-25T21:50:00.001-04:00

1. Ricky Stanzi: America's Winningest Game Manager

Say what you want about Iowa football, but one thing is for sure: They just keep on winning, don't they? I'm as shocked as you are. From opening week's one-point, twice-blocked-FG escape from FCS Northern Iowa, I'm not sure many saw that particular team playing in the Rose Bowl. Just think, a couple things here or there that could have gone differently and this is an Iowa team that was upset by Northern Iowa or Arkansas State who happened to be in the lead of the Big 10 via a couple flukes.

Even as an undefeated team and one that keeps pulling out these last-minute wins, I have to admit that's the way I'm leaning. I think if they wind up facing USC or Oregon in the Rose Bowl that they'll get whipped pretty good. The bottom line is that they're going to need some more offensive production and fast. You can only play with fire so many times. I don't want to diminish the clutch performances and shut-down defense that this team is capable of accomplishing, but they're going to be in for a rude awakening against either Ohio State, the Pac-10 champion, or Texas/SEC winner if they keep scoring an average of 23 points per game. In the end, it won't be good enough for a BCS bowl win. One of the reasons Iowa continues to win is the turnover margin. They're 6th in the nation right now, and that statistic has proven to be one of the most unreliable on a week-to-week basis.

2. To the Summit of Mount Cody!

Moses went to the peak of Mt. Cody and not Mt. Sinai, right? He must have, because that finish was nothing short of biblical. By the way I freaking hate that nickname; not standing by itself, just that I heard it about 20 times in the span of 3 minutes between CBS and ESPN. Lane Kiffin has been introduced to two of his biggest rivals, Florida and Alabama, and both times have seen his team succumb by a couple plays. They kept Florida within 10 and Bama within 2 and a blocked FG, but what does this say about the prospects of both teams?

Alabama needs to get their act together, much like Florida. After the heaps of praise they were lauded with once Florida failed to remain the flavor of the month, the results haven't entirely been there. It's not like this team cruised against South Carolina and Ole Miss in previous weeks although in total they have looked a shade better than Florida. This adds to the fact that you're probably splitting hairs between Florida and Alabama. I don't know how many times this needs to be repeated though, whether or not these two teams are 1, 2, or 3 in the polls, it won't matter because the winner of the SEC title game is in the national title. That's the bottom line. I've mentioned in the bowl projections segment of this blog that I'm not 100% sold on Tennessee right now and as a result kept them out of that week's bowl projections. If they can upset South Carolina next week, mark me down as a believer. I do realize I'm in the minority, so take it for what it's worth.

3. The Big 12 Doesn't Care About Our Petty "Sense"

All is wrong with the cosmos! Texas A&M beat Texas Tech in Lubbock for the first time in what seems like forever. This rivalry game turned into an annual slam-dunk affair with Leach's swashbucklers taking the last four in the rivalry game. This was probably the second biggest shock of the week with the Aggies winning 52-30. A&M was a program that was left for dead just a couple weeks ago by most with the Mike Sherman era almost to a painful close just 1.5 years into his tenure. Granted he wasn't going to get fired or anything, but after losing to Kansas State a week ago 62-14, they looked ready to quit. Now, a 6-6 record is in the future and probably a Texas Bowl to go along with it.

The largest surprise though did happen in the Big 12 with Iowa State out-not-turning-the-ball-over-ing, I guess you could say, Nebraska. The Cyclones basically didn't mess up in the turnover department and even though they played like a team that would have gotten blown out against any good opponent in the country Saturday, Nebraska was surprisingly more dreadful. In case you didn't see it, Nebraska turned the ball over 8 times compared to ISU's goose egg. Let's not give too much credit to Iowa State here; this was a classic case of a team defeating themselves. I've never seen such careless ball handling and more of that "we can afford to wait out these pathetic losers" attitude (save for the Florida State/Jacksonville State game earlier this year where that actually happened). The much-maligned Zac Lee didn't play a horrible game as a few of those interceptions were deflected passes that the WRs should have caught, but he didn't do anything to solidify his starting spot. You have to pin this on the backs and receivers who couldn't hold onto the football. If Nebraska has 5 turnovers instead of 8, they probably win this game. It was really that easy.

4. BCS Busting!

Did that convince voters? No. Amazingly. BYU may not be all that and a bag of chips after all, but a 38-7 road win against a halfway decent football team is a 38-7 road win against a halfway decent football team. The Horned Frogs are quickly building a BCS resume that trumps their 2008 Poinsettia Bowl victims much to the dismay of the WAC who was desperately wanting a piece of that BCS payout pie.

Texas Christian dominated that game in every way imaginable. Andy Dalton has given the offense a good spark at QB which had usually been the downfall for the Frogs--Offense, particularly at the quarterback position. I think that is what separates this TCU team from the others in the past who would win double-digits but lose once or twice. Gary Patterson has really found a gem with this bunch who appear to be BCS bound if they can take care of Utah. But what about Boise State? Well, in a perfect world, they too could join the ranks of the BCS, but there's no way the little guys can get both in. The only hope would be for Miami, Notre Dame, and Virginia Tech to finish 9-3 along with Penn State automatically qualifying over Iowa. This would increase their stock and limit the pool of teams with legitimate qualms to make a major bowl game. Those things aren't all going to happen and we all know it. If it were up to me, I'd like to see both teams get a shot, but with TCU's overall resume of beating Air Force, Utah, BYU, suddenly decent Virginia, and potential ACC Atlantic champion Clemson compared to Boise State's wins over Fresno State, Tulsa, and Oregon, I'd take the Horned Frogs. Get ready for an arms race of epic proportions though: Who can blow out mediocre teams the worst! Should be interesting.

5. College Football Embarrassments

I try not to talk about the NFL too often on here because most of it has nothing to do with the college game. But has anybody else noticed how many atrocious, pathetic NFL teams that should be competing in an NFL version of the MLB's AAA that there are? It's beyond sad. Tampa Bay, Detroit, Cleveland, Oakland, Kansas City, St. Louis, and Tennessee all are in dire need of a #1 overall franchise-changing pick but somebody is going to wind up with the 7th overall selection which is about 6 spots lower than any of these teams need to be.

My point? There are a bunch of terrible teams littered throughout the NCAA as well. Western Kentucky is having all kinds of issues, but I don't want to be too hard on them due to the fact that this is their first years as a full-fledged member of the FBS. They've had a couple injuries and the youth is spread all around the roster. I don't want to say that Rice being winless is much of a shocker either. I was really scared of the start that they could get off to if they didn't beat UAB. That stretch against teams like Vanderbilt, ECU, Oklahoma State, Navy, etc. was going to be brutal on a rebuilding, young football team. As it turns out, they're looking like a good bet to finish 0-12 if they can't upset SMU, UTEP, or Tulane. It doesn't have to be mentioned after I've lambasted Miami OH so many times on this blog, but they actually held their own at home against Northern Illinois this week losing 27-22. The other teams from the MAC who hadn't won yet squared off in the form of Ball State vs. Eastern Michigan. The Cardinals finally, FINALLY, got a win and it came with about 500 yards rushing. Congrats.

SSO's Totall Worthless Top 25:

1. Texas
2. Florida
3. Alabama
4. USC
5. TCU
6. Cincinnati
7. Iowa
8. Penn State
9. Boise State
10. LSU
11. Virginia Tech
12. Oregon
13. Oklahoma State
14. Miami
15. Georgia Tech
16. Ohio State
17. Pitt
18. Houston
19. West Virginia
20. Utah
21. South Carolina
22. Notre Dame
23. Ole Miss
24. Arizona
25. Oklahoma

Others Receiving Meaningless Consideration: Central Michigan, Navy, Wisconsin, Clemson, Cal

Game Balls!

The previously mentioned MiQuale Lewis should get some notoriety for his shredding of Eastern Michigan's defensive front. I thought Ron English was going to fix the defense at Eastern first and foremost? Lewis is a great little RB who was very underrated in Ball State's failed BCS run last season. He had 301 yards rushing on 26 carries to go with a TD. Cory Sykes was the day's second leading rusher with, get this, 203 yards and three touchdowns! I didn't know who to give the ball to, but Lewis did the most heavy lifting. Give it to both of them!

DeMarco Sampson of San Diego State had been playing in the shadow of Vincent Brown all season long who had gotten some deserved attention, no doubt. But now, it's Sampson's turn in the spotlight. He tore up Colorado State's secondary for 257 receiving yards and a few touchdowns. I guess I should also say that QB Ryan Lindley had 6 TDs, 0 picks, and 459 yards as well.

While UConn was playing with heavy hearts in the memory of their fallen brother, they came up a little short. I was going to award the gold game ball to West Virginia and Connecticut for both being classy programs. While West Virginia fans often get slapped with the rowdy tag for their unfortunate history with couches, they were classy, respectful, and the administration did a fine job of remembering the sorrow and grief that the Huskies were experiencing. Bravo on a well-played game for both teams.

I'm quickly running out of topics for the Kool-Aid Report because I'm finding myself agreeing with most of the common wisdom out there. So unless it deals with polling, BCS chatter, or replay issues, I don't have a lot of material! Regardless, this week I should bring up the national title picture and Iowa's relevance in the talk. Forget about the Hawkeyes actually playing for a national title. They aren't a recognized powerhouse program even though they have been generally solid for years. The Big 10 isn't going to get any benefit of the doubt and I object to that to some degree. If you compare the Hawkeye's resume to Florida, Alabama, or Texas, doesn't it stack up? They beat Arizona who the computers love and is represented in the top 25 now. They beat Penn State in Happy Valley. They beat Michigan State for a solid road victory. They beat Michigan who is pretty good. They beat Wisconsin on the road as well. Compared to Florida who has defeated Tennessee, Arkansas, LSU, and that's about it. Texas has defeated Oklahoma, Missouri, and Texas Tech. Alabama is the only team in the title race with a decidedly better resume with wins over Tennessee, Ole Miss, Arkansas, and Virginia Tech. I'm not suggesting that Iowa is better than these teams, but that if on-field accomplishments count for anything, the Hawkeyes should be getting more love in the national title discussion.

Word of the Week: Transmogrify
-verb
to change in appearance or form, especially strangely

This is exactly what hadn't happened over the week. Seven undefeated up, and they all stay afloat in the BCS picture. There were a couple upsets, but nothing earthshattering. I guess you could say things failed to transmogrify, but we did learn a little bit about our national title contenders as I talked about earlier in this segment.

Bowl Projections: Week 9

2009-10-25T11:50:00.003-04:00

New Mexico Bowl: Idaho vs. UTEP*
St. Petersburg Bowl: USF vs. UCF
New Orleans Bowl: Troy vs. Southern Miss
Las Vegas Bowl: Utah vs. Oregon State
Poinsettia Bowl: Iowa State* vs. Fresno State*
Hawaii Bowl: Nevada vs. Marshall
Little Caesars Pizza Bowl: Central Michigan vs. Minnesota
Meineke Car Care Bowl: Clemson vs. West Virginia
Emerald Bowl: Boston College vs. Stanford
Music City Bowl: North Carolina vs. Kentucky
Independence Bowl: Missouri vs. Auburn
EagleBank Bowl:ECU* vs. Ohio*
Champs Sports Bowl: Michigan State vs. Virginia
Humanitarian Bowl: Boise State vs. BYU
Holiday Bowl: Cal vs. Oklahoma
Armed Forces Bowl: Air Force vs. Tulsa
Sun Bowl:Arizona vs. Nebraska
Texas Bowl: Texas A&M vs. Navy
Insight Bowl: Northwestern vs. Texas Tech
Chick-fil-A Bowl: Virginia Tech vs. Georgia
Outback Bowl: Wisconsin vs. South Carolina
Capital One Bowl: LSU vs. Ohio State
Gator Bowl: Miami vs. Notre Dame
Rose Bowl: Iowa vs. Oregon
Sugar Bowl: Alabama vs. Penn State
International Bowl: Pitt vs. Temple
Cotton Bowl: Oklahoma State vs. Ole Miss
Papajohns.com Bowl:UConn vs. Middle Tennessee State*
Liberty Bowl: Houston vs. Arkansas
Alamo Bowl: Kansas vs. Michigan
Fiesta Bowl: USC vs. TCU
Orange Bowl: Georgia Tech vs. Cincinnati
GMAC Bowl:Wake Forest vs. Northern Illinois
BCS Championship: Florida vs. Texas

* - at-large qualifier

Okay, I have some 'splaining to do. Florida gets bumped into the title game after I've decided they just might be better than Alabama after all. For the rest of the BCS, I've had to switch USC to the Fiesta Bowl as the Sugar Bowl can't get both at-large USC and at-large SEC runner up. So TCU gets to test their mettle against the Trojans here. I still am not sure whether or not Cincinnati will be undefeated and if they lose to Pittsburgh, the Panthers might wind up taking that BCS bid. Also, I honestly have no clue what to expect for that final BCS berth.

What else? Toledo got thumped last week. Even if they get to 6-6, I don't have them in the bowl picture with Northern Illinois getting ready to go on a tear. Their upcoming schedule has Akron, Eastern Michigan, and Ball State all at home which means they are a near lock for 7 victories. I couldn't believe that CBS had Kent State in the International Bowl which is a joke. Ohio and Temple are still the frontrunners for the MAC East. They also had Army who needs to beat either Air Force or Navy along with wins over VMI and North Texas to get to 6 wins. They also had Florida State in a bowl game which isn't going to happen either. So I should clarify my stance on the EagleBank Bowl yet again: The EagleBank Bowl has a main alternate tie-in with C-USA and back-up alternates between the Big 10 and MAC. Without a valid ACC or Army being bowl eligible and without an extra Big 10 school, they will take C-USA ECU and 7-5 Ohio. Please read this before you comment on how stupid I am! :)

And note, there are a couple at-large bids being handed out. Upon further review, I actually don't like Tennessee to get to a bowl game this year. Maybe I keep selling them short because I don't necessarily like Lane Kiffin at all, but they still need three wins against: vs. South Carolina, vs. Memphis, @ Ole Miss, vs. Vanderbilt, @ Kentucky. I think they only get wins against Memphis and Vanderbilt. If they can beat South Carolina next week, I'll have to put them back into the bowl scene, but until then, I have the Sun Belt filling an at-large bid for the final SEC slot in the form of 7-5 Middle Tennessee. UL Monroe can also qualify for this bowl, but we'll have to wait and see what the situation is at QB for them.

UTEP, Texas A&M, and Iowa State should get into the bowl schedule. I dropped Arizona State after further examination of their schedule and it's probably too difficult. They look headed for another 5-7 finish. A&M and Iowa State should each get to 6-6, but I have A&M filling the final Big 12 spot in the Texas Bowl. Iowa State will fill in for an at-large bid to the Poinsettia as the New Mexico Bowl takes 6-6 UTEP due to proximity.

Arkansas Did What Now?

2009-10-24T13:15:00.004-04:00

....Wait, he said shot their wad? Not sure if that's the kind of language you want to use at 12:00 PM on a Saturday afternoon. Think of the children! And in front of LaVell Edwards, Mr. Mormon! Look how uncomfortable that man is!

Actually, to shoot one's wad might have a more archaic term that means to "expend all energies or resources" in one instance, hence the reference to the near-upset of Florida. I hate to ruin everybody's fun, but Corso's mind isn't that dirty; he probably meant it in the most 1960's, Mother Goose-ish possible way.

Game Previews: Week 8

2009-10-24T01:40:00.000-04:00

Sacrificial Lambs of the Week (a.k.a., the biggest blowouts) (yes, I realize I forgot Washington State @ Cal which will get very, very ugly)

When: 12:30 PM ET, FSN

Why You Should Care: Can Nebraska bounce back? How does Iowa State have a winning record? The Cyclones are surprisingly 4-3 and if they had defeated Kansas State earlier this year, they'd be a game away from bowl eligibility.

Iowa State Will Win Because...: Paul Rhoads was brought in to fix the defense. While that mission has been accomplished, it's the offense that has been turning the most heads. Austin Arnaud has taken the next step in his development as a passer and Alexander Robinson has become the all-world back he was expected to. The defense is 88th in total but 42nd in scoring D.

Nebraska Will Win Because...: Three of Iowa State's victories have come against North Dakota State, Kent State, and Army. This is a team that while noticeably more competitive still has some growing up and maturation to do. And how about that QB situation? Nebraska got whacked at home last week against Texas Tech and fans began chanting Cody Green's name, the back up QB. Zac Lee has struggled against the top-flight defenses on his schedule this year.

Keep an Eye on...: The QB situation. Pelini said he was considering changing guys at "a lot of positions" which makes me believe it was a tough week of practice for the Cornhuskers. Nebraska will have a lot of guys playing for their jobs, but Cody Green could come in at QB if Lee is slow to start again.

And the Crystal Ball Says: This isn't a game that should be all that competitive. Nebraska has the ability to thump the weaker teams on their schedules, but that doesn't mean the Cyclones should be taken lightly. They were a few points away from beating both of the Kansas schools. Still, they don't quite have enough in the tank to play with Nebraska in Memorial Stadium, so take the Cornhuskers, 41-20.

When: 3:30 PM ET, ESPN Gameplan

Why You Should Care: Yikes. Is there any team worse than Western Kentucky in football right now? No, that answer is pretty clear. As a matter of fact, they would be an average-at-best team if they were in the FCS right now. They get another opportunity to pull off an upset for their first victory against Middle Tennessee.

Western Kentucky Will Win Because...: For all of the flak that the Hilltoppers are receiving in their predictably-disastrous opening FBS season, they have managed to keep in some games that could have easily been blowouts. They gave Navy and UL Lafayette some games earlier this year. Bobby Rainey leads a pretty solid rushing attack that should be able to keep this game reasonable. The Blue Raider offense has tanked, scoring 13 points in the last two weeks.

Middle Tennessee Will Win Because...: Yeah, but those two games were against Troy and Mississippi State. While disappointing outings, even a MTSU team that plays a lackluster game should get by with 25+ points against the Hilltoppers. Dwight Dasher will lead his group against a defense that allows 486 yards of offense per game.

Keep an Eye on...: S Mark Santoro, WKU. The Hilltopper defensive back leads the team in tackles (which is never really a good thing). But, he does have the ability to make tackles downfield, which should be handy in this type of game.

And the Crystal Ball Says: Western Kentucky will keep this a manageable game, but expect one of those we-had-'em-till-the-fourth-quarter kind of blowouts that a school spins as a moral victory. Yeah, that. Middle Tennessee will take control by at least the fourth quarter with a 31-13 win.

When: 3:30 PM ET, ESPN Gameplan

Why You Should Care: Keeping it in the Sun Belt, what are the odds that North Texas can compete with Troy on the road? Keep dreaming, dude. The Troy team that we all know and love appears to be back like they are every time the Sun Belt schedule comes around.

North Texas Will Win Because...: Yes, they have lost five games in a row, but this is a team that has lost to Ohio, UL Lafayette, and Florida Atlantic by a combined 9 points. More and more, this is looking like a hot team at least heading into 2010, but the wins will be accompanied by more consistent play, something that has been lacking tremendously under Todd Dodge.

Troy Will Win Because...: The defense has been an utter disappointment, but that hasn't stopped the offense. Levi Brown has exploded onto the scene in his second year starting ranking 31st in total offense in the FBS. Led by DE Cameron Sheffield, this is still a team that can get in the opponent's backfield and make plays even though they have stunk as a unit.

Keep an Eye on...: North Texas RB, Lance Dunbar. This is a RB on a mission right now. Over the last two games, he's ran for four touchdowns and over 400 yards. He has the ability to run up, through, and around Troy's talented defensive front.

And the Crystal Ball Says: Have to go with Troy. While North Texas being 1-6 after this game isn't exactly what Dodge had in mind for this third season at the helm, noticeable progress is being made. The team has found a boatload more consistency and a running game to build around while keeping the slingin'-it-around principles of Dodge Ball. It won't matter in this game as Troy blows the Mean Green out of the water, 45-17.

Reba on CW, or.... (a.k.a., the worst televised games)

When: 3:00 PM ET, ESPN Gameplan

Why You Should Care: It's do-or-die time for Louisiana Tech's bowl hopes. As it stands right now, this is a team that is 3-3 with 3 more games (including this one) where they should be favored. Pulling off an upset of Boise State at home or Fresno on the road is doable, but they hope it doesn't come down to that. This is a dangerous road game against a Utah State offense that can score all of a sudden.

Louisiana Tech Will Win Because...: The Aggies are coming off of back-to-back three-point-loss heartbreakers against New Mexico State and Nevada. Louisiana Tech won't wow you by doing anything, really. However, with a balanced offense led by Daniel Porter who has found his groove after a slow start, he should carve up Utah State's run defense that is allowing more than 200 yards on the ground.

Utah State Will Win Because...: Much like Louisiana Tech did on the road against Nevada, they might get waxed defensively. Utah State's offense can move the ball, but getting into the end zone has been a bit of an issue. The Bulldogs are solid on that side of the ball, but with the 14th best runner in the game in terms of rushing yards on their sidelines (Robert Turbin), look for Utah State to do their damage.

Keep an Eye on...: USU LB Bobby Wagner. Wagner has proven to be the top tackler on Utah State's defense. The Aggies have been worse than mediocre so far highlighted by a 34 point effort against Southern Utah awhile back. If Wagner can defend the pass well and make some good tackles against the run, they might be able to keep La Tech's offense from going berserk.

And the Crystal Ball Says: Picking Utah State to finally get an FBS win at home is really tempting right about now, but I'll go with the safe thing and Louisiana Tech. As mentioned previously, nothing that they do is going to impress too many people, but that's not to say they aren't a solid football team. Porter should get his rushing yards which will lead to more points than Utah State can score. That would typically define who wins a football game! Bulldogs win, 35-30.

When: 6:00 PM ET, ESPN Gameplan

Why You Should Care: After the amount of good will the Alabama win got Charlie Weatherbie, he has fielded a Sun Belt sleeper here in 2009. The Warhawks have enough talent to give Kentucky a run for their money, but can they pull off another SEC upset on the road?

UL Monroe Will Win Because...: Currently on a three game winning streak and possessing a 4-2 record overall, they have been the beneficiary of getting the right play at the right time from their offense and defense. There was a little bit of both against Florida Atlantic, a shootout against Florida International, and a defensive slugfest against Arkansas State (but that could have been the rain). Frank Goodin has stepped up big time for this offense giving them a viable option at RB.

Kentucky Will Win Because...: After losing three straight against upper-tier/solid SEC schools, they were bound to pull off one upset, right? They ended that brutal stretch with a 7 point win against Auburn. The Tigers were limited to 14 points which came as a surprise to many considering Kentucky's average defense.

Keep an Eye on...: Kentucky QB Mike Newton and ULM QB Cody Wells. I can't go throughout a preview of these two teams without mentioning the injured QBs, Revell and Hartline. These two freshman QBs are major wild cards in the equation of this game.

And the Crystal Ball Says: While Newton is the better of two prospects compared to redshirt freshman Cody Wells, this is a game that should be close. Besides the fact that UL Monroe is at least halfway decent for a non-BCS school, the inconsistency at QB for Kentucky will make it interesting at least. I expect a lot of headscratchers and headaches for both Rich Brooks and Weatherbie, but Kentucky has more talent which should bail them out. Look for the Wildcats to win it in the 4th quarter, 23-16.

When: 10:15 PM ET, ESPNU

Why You Should Care: Not meaning to pick on the WAC for this segment, but this game shouldn't be all that interesting. Or will it? New Mexico State has three wins already this year and Fresno State will provide a stiff challenge on the road.

Fresno State Will Win Because...: Have you seen this team in action so far against the soft interior of the WAC standings? Hawaii got demolished 42-17 at home and San Jose State was disposed of last week in their rivalry game 41-21. If anything, DeWayne Walker's crew should see similar results with the play of their defense. They got hammered last week at Louisiana Tech 45-7 and their three wins against Prairie View A&M, New Mexico, and Utah State have come by three points each game.

New Mexico State Will Win Because...: A win is a win after the Hal Mumme era, especially when two of them come against FBS schools! The Aggies have shown a new sense of toughness even though the defense has still allowed a lot of points. Seth Smith and Marquell Colston (not the former Hofstra receiver) have combined to make a nice running combo.

Keep an Eye on...: Ryan Matthews. New Mexico State has one of the worst rushing defenses in the nation allowing over 186 yards per game. Matthews just happens to be having a career year leading the country in yards per game. Ouch.

And the Crystal Ball Says: New Mexico State at home should provide another dimension of competitiveness to this game, but that won't stop Fresno State's running game by itself. Look for Matthews to approach 200 yards in this one as the Bulldogs eat the Aggie D for lunch, 47-14.

These Guys Gotta Show Something (a.k.a., teams with something prove)

When: 12:00 PM ET, Big 10 Network

Why You Should Care: Why does a game between lower-tier Big 10 teams matter at all? Well, it doesn't really, but if you care about the final Big 10 bowl bid, this game might as well decide it. Indiana has four wins; Northwestern has four wins. Indiana has three losses; Northwestern has three losses.

Indiana Will Win Because...: The Wildcat pass defense leaves something to be desired for sure and that is good news for Ben Chappell. Chappell has shown the ability to be a more-than-solid passer. With guys like Tandon Doss to throw the ball too, the Hoosiers should move the ball through the air without too many issues.

Northwestern Will Win Because...: Mike Kafka has developed into quite the polished passer. While he's clearly not in the upper-echelon of collegiate QBs, he's efficient at moving the Northwestern offense and that's all that really matters. The Hoosier secondary is also pretty shoddy, so look for Northwestern to get some yardage through the air.

Keep an Eye on...: Northwestern TE Drake Dunsmore. While Zeke Markshausen gets all of the attention as the leading receiver and rightfully so, Dunsmore could be in for a big game. As already highlighted, Indiana's secondary has gotten beat up over the past few weeks. Dunsmore could get open running the intermediate routes.

And the Crystal Ball Says: This is a game Northwester should win at Ryan Field. Indiana's four wins have come at the hands of Eastern Ketnucky, down-ish (you never know) Western Michigan, Akron, and Illinois. Northwestern's may not be all that much better, but they need this game a little bit more and that will make the difference. I saw where CFN predicted a low-scoring affair, but I don't really see it. Look for this game to get into the 30's with the Wildcats coming out on top, 38-34.

When: 1:00 PM ET

Why You Should Care: Somebody is getting on the board with a victory come Saturday! Eastern Michigan: Winless. Ball State: Winless. While Eastern wasn't supposed to go bowling overnight under Ron English, a winless season wasn't expected. Ball State on the other hand was supposed to be in bowl contention, but they have fallen off the map. Time for a coaching change? You be the judge.

Ball State Will Win Because...: In one of the bigger stunners of the college football season, Ball State is winless. I'm repeating myself, but it has to be done. Yes, that's after facing Temple, Army, New Hampshire, and North Texas. With the season closing out against Ohio, Northern Illinois, CMU, and WMU, this is their last shot to win a game realistically (although Western is a nice upset possibility on their senior day, trust me).

Eastern Michigan Will Win Because...: Being at home could help the Eagles out a little bit. Sure they've lost to Kent State, Temple, and Army in Ypsilanti, but what's to say they'll lose a fourth time? Kelly Page has been extremely inconsistent. At times he shows flashes of progression and at others he doesn't look like he was worth all of the attention. Eastern's pass defense ranks 6th in the nation, which is pretty surprising.

Keep an Eye on...: RB MiQuale Lewis. Here's a guy that needs a big game and very soon. Lewis has the capability like we all saw in 2008, it's just a matter of getting enough help from his surrounding team. Oh, I should mention the reason Eastern's pass defense looks so good on paper is because every team spends so much time running the ball down their throats.

And the Crystal Ball Says: This should be an evenly contested game. I certainly wouldn't put it past Eastern to win this game, but Ball State has to have the better team........Right?!?!? Right. Lewis should get close to 150 yards rushing and that should do it, 23-14 for the Cardinals.

When: 1:30 PM ET, ESPN360

Why You Should Care: Okay, can Duke get to a bowl game? Probably not. But about this game. This game should be important in deciding the ACC pecking order. Maryland is officially toast if they drop this (if they aren't considered that already). Should be interesting.

Maryland Will Win Because...: Maryland may be very soft defensively, but Duke has no running game to rely on. The Blue Devils haven't found a viable rushing threat all season long and that should carry over into this game.

Duke Will Win Because...: Okay, they may have no running game, but the passing one is there. Thaddeus Lewis has finally developed into that all-star kind of QB we all expected him to be since 2006. The Terps haven't done anything to really suggest that they can keep a QB with the talent of Lewis at bay, so....

Keep an Eye on...: Duke LB Vincent Rey. Rey is having a tame year by his standards, but that's not to say he can't have a monster game. This is a senior with enough talent to explode and keep Maryland's power running game in check.

And the Crystal Ball Says: I have to give up on Maryland sometime. Take Duke. Not much to say here; I don't know what to expect for sure. Screw it, I don't know about the mid-tier of the ACC. Just give me the home team already! Duke wins it with the passing game, 31-20.

Upset Alert (a.k.a, what it says)

When: 4:05 PM ET, ESPN Gameplan

Why You Should Care: A 6-1 beating a 3-3 team is an upset? I guess so. Technically, it wouldn't be that big of a deal if Idaho pulls off the upset, but I had to sneak this game in here somehow. This game is basically a battle for second place in the WAC and the winner should go on to challenge Boise State for the conference crown.

Idaho Will Win Because...: As I've repeated on this blog many times sounding like a broken record, the maturation of Nathan Enderle has been worth paying attention to. He's cut down on the errors and made much, much better decisions in the pocket. He's throwing against Nevada's secondary which could present the worst coverage in the nation.

Nevada Will Win Because...: That running game is too juicy to not account for. Nevada runs through, up, over, and around people. Their backs have speed to burn and power to boot. Idaho's rush defense looks good on paper, but I have to ponder if they've faced a running game as effective as Nevada's.

Keep an Eye on...: RB Vai Taua. And it's not just Taua running the rock for the Wolf Pack; Kaepernick and Lippincott are each nationally ranked. Taua just happens to be the top back in the offense. If Nevada controls the ground, they win.

And the Crystal Ball Says: Idaho can't keep winning like this. It's just not humanly possible. I expect their momentum to be quelled a bit, but this is still a team with a lot of things going in their favor. Don't quit on the Vandals if they lose this game. If they win, heck, they are the definitive challengers of Boise State. I'm a believer, but I have them dropping this matchup, 40-31.

When: 3:30 PM ET, ABC

Why You Should Care: So Miami is a top 10 team. Can they avoid the upset? This is the first real game where they've had the bullseye on their back against a decidedly inferior opponent with a legitimate shot of hanging in the game. I'm going to give you a second to digest that last sentence, but I digress...

Clemson Will Win Because...: The game last week should represent the real Clemson. The Tigers have been waffling a bit heading into that game by losing to TCU and Maryland, but a 35 point victory against a decent conference foe might be just what the doctor ordered. With athletes like C.J. Spiller in the backfield, you can never totally count out Clemson.

Miami Will Win Because...: Miami's defense is coming around slightly. Obviously they faced Florida A&M and Central Florida who aren't exactly Texas Tech, but the fact that the Hurricanes are back to basic fundamentals defensively is encouraging. Florida State, Georgia Tech, and Virginia Tech moved the ball almost at will (GT not as much).

Keep an Eye on...: Clemson K Richard Jackson. I probably pick a kicker/punter to keep an eye on once every two previews or so, but make no mistake: Special teams will be important in this game. I think it could come down to a couple FGs, so keep an eye on how Jackson performs.

And the Crystal Ball Says: This is a game that will come down to a lot of things, but something in particular that I'm going to be watching is the pass defense of Clemson. I predict that the Tigers will keep Jacory Harris at bay on the road and score an upset over the top 10 Canes, 26-24. It'll be field goal-kickin' goodness and a back-to-basics ACC defensive-dominated game.

When: 3:30 PM ET, ABC

Why You Should Care: Can Washington pull off another upset of a Pac-10 titan? With the way Oregon has been playing of late, the Ducks are certainly in that echelon. The Huskies lost a heartbreaking game in the desert against Arizona State last week in a poorly managed game that falls on the shoulders of Sarkisian. Doe they have what it takes to come back?

Oregon Will Win Because...: Simply put, the running game should overwhelm Washington's defensive front. There's pretty much no way that LaMichael James will get fewer than 100 yards in this game as U-Dub is surrendering 160 rushing yards per game. Look for Masoli and James to option the heck out of this defense.

Washington Will Win Because...: The friendly and scenic confines of Husky Stadium. Washington has a win over Arizona, USC, and Idaho which looks better all the time (I know I'm repeating myself from another post). The Huskies have appeared to be mentally tough after rebounding from some difficult losses. Plus, Jake Locker is always a plus.

Keep an Eye on...: Washington WRs James Johnson and Jermaine Kearse. The freshman and sophomore respectively have to find lanes in the Oregon secondary. The Ducks lay claim to the 6th best pass efficiency defense in the country which should make life difficult on Locker.

And the Crystal Ball Says: I think I just made the case for Oregon in that last segment. There's no way Locker can do any damage to this defense if he can't find open receivers and that should be the situation. Oregon has the offense to gash Washington's defense, too. I expect Washington to earn yet another moral victory in a tightly contested game, which is why this is listed on Upset Alert. But it won't amount to a win as Oregon takes it, 36-24.

I Pity Da Fool Who Misses These Games (a.k.a., the best games of the week)

When: 12:00 PM ET, ESPNU

Why You Should Care: Shame on me for not mentioning the tragic passing of UConn CB Jasper Howard in any capacity. From all accounts, he sounded like a great guy and the team looks like they've had their hearts torn out from their chests. A pregame ceremony is planned. Beside the obvious sadness hanging over the game, the on-field implications are also there. UConn can keep pace in the Big East race with an upset while West Virginia is always hanging around in the background to steal that BCS bid from Cincinnati.

UConn Will Win Because...: Even with heavy hearts, you should expect one of the best efforts from UConn. Their defense has a dream matchup coming up against either a banged up, game-time-decision Jarrett Brown or a freshman in Geno Smith. This should play right into the hands of one of the top secondaries in the country for UConn.

West Virginia Will Win Because...: This is a pretty underrated defense. West Virginia has lost that offensive spark they once had under Rodriguez, but the face of the program has shifted and changed. This is a team that can win an offensive struggle now with a more tough-nosed approach defensively. UConn may have Dixon and Todman to rely on in the backfield, but they'll be heading into the teeth of the West Virginia defense.

Keep an Eye on...: QB Cody Endres. Endres is actually 14th in passing efficiency, but the UConn pass offense hasn't been asked to do very much. Endres will be forced to throw the ball if they can't run, so look to see if the Huskies can move the football if they get one-dimensional.

And the Crystal Ball Says: I really don't know where to go here. On paper, you have to take the Mountaineers at home over a UConn offense that can't score, but you have to consider the emotional rollercoaster that UConn has been on for the last week. I think that will ultimately be what decides this game. Connecticut will play inspired offensively and defensively and it will come up with a tight win, 23-20.

When: 3:30 PM ET, ABC

Why You Should Care: Penn State needs this win. With Iowa basically having two more loseable games remaining on the schedule (@ MSU, @ Ohio State), they can't afford to fall two behind in the loss column. Michigan has been revived by Rodriguez's second season at the helm. Can they derail Penn State's Rose Bowl aspirations?

Penn State Will Win Because...: They have a better all-around blend of talent on this team. The Nittany Lions have played stifling defense for most of the year and Michigan's offense isn't quite as good as the stats say after shredding mediocre MEAC team Delaware State for over 700 yards. So far, Iowa is the only team to have scored more than 20 points against the Lions. Plus, Michigan's defense is awful right now and needs more focus. That comes directly from the coaching staff. Hello third straight new defensive coordinator for 2010!.....Hopefully!

Michigan Will Win Because...: Yeah, but besides Minnesota, they haven't played an offense with a pulse unless you count Eastern Illinois or Akron. Special teams should be in Michigan's favor if they can limit Penn State's offense by some miracle.

Keep an Eye on...: Michigan DB Donovan Warren. Warren has been decent. I don't want to say he's played well or that he couldn't be any better, but he's the guy who has picked up most of the slack. This is a talented bunch with some decent names, it's a matter of getting everybody on the same page (GREG FRICKIN' ROBINSON!). Michigan needs some better production from their secondary if they want to stay in this game.

And the Crystal Ball Says: This could be the biggest-named matchup of the Big 10 week even though Iowa and Michigan State (coming up) have more implications. Michigan will be inspired, somewhat. I mean, enough to keep this close, but it won't exactly matter. Penn State's solid offense going up against Michigan's shoddy defense should be enough to get the job done. The nation's number two scoring defense will more than likely keep Forcier and crew from doing too much damage, so go with the safe pick. Penn State will win, 34-23.

When: 3:30 PM ET, NBC

Why You Should Care: With all of the games having BCS implications this week, could Boston College @ Notre Dame have a similar effect? If Boston College wins, this is a team that could go on a tear and win the ACC Atlantic, thus giving them a one-game shot for the BCS. If Notre Dame wins, this could set up a 10-2 run to finish the year.

Boston College Will Win Because...: Can this team cover? A little bit. I was disappointed to see USC give up as many points and yards against this Notre Dame offense (full disclosure, I'm a Michigan fan if you don't know), but it is so annoying and I am so flabbergasted as to why this Notre Dame offense works. Jimmy Clausen CHUCKS the football to a horribly-covered Golden Tate or Kyle Rudolph and they catch it. Get some coverage, you beat Notre Dame.

Notre Dame Will Win Because...: I should probably just accept the fact that Notre Dame's offense is good again. Clausen has shown the ability to make the throws he needs and he should probably take the lesson from Sam Bradford and leave for the pros while he can. The Irish have stunk defensively, but that won't be an issue against Boston College's 97th ranked total offense.

Keep an Eye on...: BC RB Montel Harris. When Boston College was looking for a RB last year, Harris stepped up as a freshman. As a sophomore, he's on pace to get about 1300 yards if he finishes with his average (probably will dip down a bit). Notre Dame's defense can't tackle so the Eagles must rely on Harris to get a good deal of the yards.

And the Crystal Ball Says: Gotta go with Touchdown Jesus here. Notre Dame should take care of a pass defense that isn't going to do much to halt Tate or Rudolph. If Notre Dame has done it against everybody so far, including USC, they should do it again to Boston College. BC also has no pass rush. This will be relatively competitive but with Notre Dame at home, they should win, 35-26.

When: 7:00 PM ET, Big 10 Network

Why You Should Care: Let's give the Big 10 Network a big round of applause for denying coverage of this game to millions of fans throughout the country that has definite Rose Bowl implications. Bravo. But with that said, if Michigan State is hot, Iowa is on fire. Somebody has to lose in this game.

Iowa Will Win Because...: Michigan State's little run is maybe a little overhyped. They beat Northwestern and Illinois by 10 points a piece. Sure a three game winning streak is nice, but let's not say Michigan State is in a position to be playing for a Rose Bowl or anything like that. Iowa's offense may not be great, but Ricky Stanzi has gotten the job done when the Hawkeyes have needed him to.

Michigan State Will Win Because...: If I'm looking at this correctly, I believe this game will come down to pass protection and special teams. Michigan State has proven to have the better offensive line and we'll give them a slight edge in the return game. Even though Dantionio has abandoned the ground game for the most part, Keith Nichol and Kirk Cousins have each done some underrated jobs at moving the offense along.

Keep an Eye on...: Spartan receiver Blair White. White never fails to surprise people. He's never really expected to do much before he breaks open for a 30 yard gain up the middle. Cousins or Nichol will look his way as the main option.

And the Crystal Ball Says: I'll bite. Upset! Iowa can't continue winning at this rate. Their offense is not potent enough and if you think not playing defense will catch up with you eventually, the opposite is also true with offense. Michigan State will do alright against a tough Hawkeye D, but the home crowd is going to pull them through. Sparty wins, 23-18.

When: 7:30 PM ET, Versus

Why You Should Care: Did Versus luck out on this TV deal or what? Not that it matters after they were ditched by DirecTV, but I digress. TCU's BCS bid hangs on this game. BYU's slimmest of slim BCS prayers also depends on this game. After the Horned Frogs knocked off the Cougars last year in Fort Worth, the game shifts to Provo and revenge is on the mind of BYU.

TCU Will Win Because...: There's some offense now! Believe it or not, the team that has become known for defense-only has a mature gunslinger in the pocket to build around for the first time since.....I don't know, a healthy Tye Gunn? Pretty much. The junior Andy Dalton has been a decent passer who can move the chains when asked to has really manifested himself as a threat on the ground. BYU's defense isn't great, so look for TCU to take care of business defensively and score enough points to win the game.

BYU Will Win Because...: The Cougars at home are probably going to be at an advantage. If this game is at TCU, it's probably a slam dunk. The Cougars offense has exploded in recent weeks which include a 43.5 ppg average since that brain cramp against Florida State. That combo of Max Hall and Harvey Unga will be tough to topple as good as TCU's defense can be.

Keep an Eye on...: TE Dennis Pitta, BYU. The Cougar TE is more of a WR than anything else, although I suppose he's an adequate blocker. He's got great hands and is a good route runner, so don't be surprised when Hall is looking his way downfield.

And the Crystal Ball Says: I'm really torn about this game. Can't go back on TCU now, can I? I predicted that the Horned Frogs would finish the year undefeated and swipe that BCS bid away from Boise State, so I have to go with them until I'm wrong. The defense should defeat BYU's explosive attack and keep it at bay. TCU has enough talent offensively to score some points as the Horned Frogs win it, 28-23 in a very entertaining matchup.

Best of the Rest (a.k.a., games that didn't fit a particular category)

When: 12:00 PM ET, ESPN Gameplan

Why You Should Care: The loser might as well be done in the Big East. Actually, that's a stretch for Pitt, but for USF, this game is pretty much a must-win with their loss to Cincinnati last Thursday. Besides that, it's a great matchup! If you have Gameplan, be sure to tune in.

USF Will Win Because...: While USF never wins the games it absolutely has to, Jim Leavitt has this thing where he gets the Bulls to get jacked up to play teams such as Pitt. Pittsburgh hasn't looked like an all-world team after beating Navy by enough (I guess you could say), losing to NC State, beating Rutgers by 7, and UConn by a FG. The Bulls have an athletic defense that will get into the face of Bill Stull.

Pitt Will Win Because...: Regardless of what Pitt faces with the pass rush, USF has an average rush defense. They're not great, they're not bad. Dion Lewis is quickly emerging as one of the best RBs in college football today making Pitt fans forget all about LeSean McCoy. B.J. Daniels will turn into a special athlete in a few years, but he showed last week that he can be mistake prone at times.

Keep an Eye on...: USF WR Carlton Mitchell. Mitchell is the big-play guy on the perimeter for the Bulls and he has a tendency to be their home-run hitter. Look to see if he can get open deep for Daniels.

And the Crystal Ball Says: Something I haven't brought up, but the kicking game will also play into Pitt's favor. Pitt's K Dan Hutchins is a lot more reliable than either Schwartz or Alvarado. Look for Pitt to control the flow of the game on the ground and through special teams. Pitt wins, 28-20.

When: 12:20 PM ET, ESPN Gameplan/SEC Network

Why You Should Care: Arkansas needs this game. Ole Miss needs this game. Houston Nutt versus Arkansas. Need I say more?

Arkansas Will Win Because...: They have Ryan Mallett. If this thing comes down to a war between QBs, Arkansas should have it won. As talented as Jevan Snead is, he has struggled all year long and it doesn't look like it's something he's going to snap out of anytime soon.

Ole Miss Will Win Because...: Pass defense. Right now, this is a group that generates pressure off of the ends with Greg Hardy and Kentrell Lockett, not to mention some good cover guys in the secondary. If you haven't noticed all year, the Hogs have not been able to tackle this season.

Keep an Eye on...: QB Jevan Snead. Is it lazy? Sure. But he needs to pick up his play. If he can do it at home against a team that doesn't pay much attention defensively, the Rebels should get back on track offensively.

And the Crystal Ball Says: The stats should be telling me Ole Miss, but I do believe that Arkansas turned a corner after last week. Their focus should determine the outcome of this game. If they let the crappy refereeing interfere with their preperation for this game, it could be a long day. But I don't think the Hogs will fall for that. I don't buy that this team could possibly begin their SEC season 1-4, so I'll go with odds and say Arkansas wins, 34-30.

When: 3:30 PM ET, CBS

Why You Should Care: It's the first experience of the 3rd Saturday in October for Lane Kiffin. Welcome! I hope he has fun facing what is more than likely the best team in the country.

Tennessee Will Win Because...: Look, this team doesn't have the firepower, the ability defensively to manage Mark Ingram, or the coaching from the top. But what they do have going for them is the fact that they hung in against Florida and only lost that game by 10 points. I shouldn't sell the 13th ranked defense short, but I'm thinking of their defense going against Alabama's, just to be clear.

Alabama Will Win Because...: Mark Ingram! This guy is a monster and he played down the road from my alma mater high school. How did this guy leave the state of Michigan? Ugh. But yeah, if you think Jonathan Crompton has struggled so far this season, he should be even worse against the best defense in the nation.

Keep an Eye on...: QB Greg McElroy. Another lazy pick to go with the QB, but if he plays well in the face of an aggressive Volunteer defense, this thing should be pretty easy for the Tide.

And the Crystal Ball Says: Bama. Easy. I just don't believe in Tennessee right now. I know they crushed Georgia a few weeks ago, but they look so average. Alabama will win it big, 42-13.

When: 3:30 PM ET, ABC

Why You Should Care: With all of the Sam Bradford drama on the sidelines, Oklahoma still has a season to play. Sitting at 3-3 with losses to BYU, Miami, and Texas, a bigger disaster couldn't be asked for in Norman. Kansas was sneaking around the chicken coop of the top 10 after a solid start, but stunningly lost in Boulder last week to flaky Colorado. Both teams will be trying to bounce back.

Oklahoma Will Win Because...: .....It's Oklahoma! Come on! The team that could score 60 points at will last season can't move the football with any consistency. It's pretty disappointing even with the reconstructed offensive line. Things have to turn around eventually and the more experience Landry Jones gets under center, the more this offense will get the hang of things.

Kansas Will Win Because...: Just forget about that game last week. Surprisingly, a Mark Mangino-led team came into the game just downright unfocused. They tried coming back, but it was too little too late last week. The Jayhawks still have three things going for them: The 5th ranked offense in the nation, at least a decent defense, and the leadership of Todd Reesing.

Keep an Eye on...: Kansas WR Dezmon Briscoe. Seriously media, give this guy some props. He's one of the best receivers in the game today and is currently the leader in receiving yards per game.

And the Crystal Ball Says: Much like Boise State, this team away from Norman is a lot easier to defeat. Is it a coincidence that all three of their losses happened on the road or a neutral field? Are their failures in bowl games a coincidence as well? I'm not going to do it though. Oklahoma is not going 3-4. Oklahoma is not going 3-4. Oklahoma is not going 3-4. It's just too unfathomable. I still like Kansas no matter what happens in this game to finish in a solid bowl game like the Sun, but I'll say Oklahoma pulls off a gut-check win by the skin of their teeth in Lawrence. Boomer Sooner, 36-31.

When: 7:45 PM ET, ESPN2

Why You Should Care: We may be nearing the end of October, but there's still a lot we don't know about LSU. The Tigers have had one major test against Florida and I'm not going to say they flunked it. Let's give them a C. Auburn meanwhile has had the luster come off of their potentially special season with back-to-back losses against Arkansas and Kentucky (Kentucky at Auburn? Who saw that coming?).

Auburn Will Win Because...: This isn't our usual LSU defense. The Tigers haven't been as stout since Bo Pelini took off for Nebraska and while they're keeping teams out of the end zone, they haven't managed to dominate opposing offenses so far. That's good news for the Auburn spread attack coached by Gus Malzahn.

LSU Will Win Because...: It's in Death Valley. Auburn appears to be on an undeniable slide since that loss to Arkansas and it carried over against Kentucky. It's not like their defense has been able to do anything special either ranking in the 70's for both scoring and total defense.

Keep an Eye on...: LSU WR Brandon LaFell. LaFell hasn't wowed a lot of people in his senior season, but a lot of that has had to do with Jefferson's inability to spread the ball around very efficiently. Auburn will look like North Texas on defense compared to Florida two weeks ago.

And the Crystal Ball Says: LSU should win this game at home, but it's a Saturday night SEC game and I'm not going to put it past LSU to blow this game to the other Tigers. I think their defense will do its thing and the offense will play well enough to win. Auburn will compete, but fall in the end by a score of 27-24.

Bonus Pick'em

Georgia Tech 37, Virginia 14
Bowling Green 38, Central Michigan 34
Navy 28, Wake Forest 27
Utah 39, Air Force 30
Arizona 32, UCLA 18
Texas Tech 52, Texas A&M 30
Florida 33, Mississippi State 17
Texas 42, Missouri 24
USC 35, Oregon State 10
Stanford 43, Arizona State 34

Big East > Mountain West

2009-10-23T21:24:00.007-04:00

That is a mathematical law. There is no getting around this. Please, please, please shut up about this, "which conference is better?" dopey talk. Here I am watching the Rutgers/Army game and all I'm getting from Tessitore and Rod Gilmore is this manufactured bit of attention-grabbing. Are the conferences comparable at the top? Maybe. Is the Mountain West and the Big 10 comparable at the top? Maybe. I'll give you those somewhat. When you start talking about conferences as wholes though, there absolutely is no comparison between the Big East and the Mountain West. This post is kind of short on statistical analysis and it's just my opinion of the way I see things, so I apologize in advance for that.

The Big East has 8 teams. Every single one is solid enough to be respected. If Louisville plays in the Mountain West, they're in a bowl game. If Syracuse plays in the Mountain West, they're on the borderline. It's as simple as this. No conference that contains New Mexico, Wyoming, Air Force, Colorado State, UNLV, or San Diego State has a legitimate beef to claim they are a BCS conference. Period! BYU, Utah, and TCU may be good, but you can't say, "oh, the Big East doesn't deserve a bid" and on the other hand give one to the Mountain West. That's INSANITY.

Look, my theory is that BCS status leads to better recruiting and more cash to work with. Do you think the rising of South Florida and Cincinnati are coincidences or do you think that's because they joined a conference that gives them an opportunity to compete for a BCS championship? Do you think it's a coincidence that since UConn joined the Big East that they have gotten better as a program? UConn was an FCS school not long ago. If you extended that benefit to the Mountain West, I think something similar would happen out West. You might see a decline in play for the Pac-10 and the Big 12, but things would even out and San Diego State would become equivalent to a Louisville or a Purdue or a Baylor instead of being a lower-rung non-BCS school. It's the way things work. It's all about money. I certainly don't want to sound like a Leninist revolutionary, but you have an elite class in college football that determines which schools basically succeed and fail. So the point I'm getting at is that there is not a level playing field between UNLV and Connecticut.

This, however, is a different issue. If you want to talk about that and whether or not the stigma of being an "auto-bid" conference is even legitimate, that's fine with me and you might have a legitimate argument. There is no comparison between the depth of the conferences as they stand currently. There's no escaping this fact. I'm probably playing straight into the hands of ESPN which is in the business of fanning flames of fanhood and I realize that. But this is a dangerous, sloppily put together, and flimsy argument created to cause a stir. Which stretch of games would seem tougher to you? Let's just say hypothetically: vs. TCU, @ Wyoming, vs. UNLV, vs. @ San Diego State or vs. Pitt, @ West Virginia, vs. USF, @ UConn. Get the picture? Man.

/rant

Game Preview: Rutgers vs. Army

2009-10-23T16:24:00.003-04:00

When: 8:00 PM ET, ESPN2

Why You Should Care: Let's see Rich Ellerson's option in person, finally! I seriously haven't been able to find Army on the TV just about anywhere. Actually, they've been on CBS College Sports along with Navy, but I haven't had the time to actually tune in for longer than a few minutes. Rutgers is trying to just qualify for a bowl game and they'll need 7 wins to do it. This is a must here for Schiano.

Rutgers Will Win Because...: Army is making strides, but to say they can beat a team like Rutgers might be a bit of a stretch. They managed to stun a vastly overrated Vanderbilt team coming into this season 16-13 in OT, but let's assume Rutgers is better than Vandy. The only way the Black Knights can effectively move the football is on the ground, but Rutgers is 11th against the run this year. Their offense in total has been dreadful at finding the endzone as much promise as the option may have at Army.

Army Will Win Because...: Army can control the clock and field position to make this game a lot closer than we might expect. Ellerson's club has Schiano's beat at special teams, believe it or not. Rutgers has been awful in the return game all year long ranking 115th in kickoff and 112th in punt returns.

Keep an Eye on...: DE Jonathan Freeny of Rutgers. Freeny? DE? He's actually a distant relative of the other Freeney (even with the different spelling). Army's offensive line play hasn't been great and should have their hands full with Freeny on the edge.

And the Crystal Ball Says: Rutgers will get a halfway solid road victory. Not that beating Army is a big deal or anything, but the Scarlet Knights need all the victories they can get their hands on with a freshman starting QB. This game won't be all that competitive or entertaining for that matter, but I want to see Army's option game in action for an extended period of time, so I'll be watching. Rutgers wins it with good defense, 27-12.

I Walk the Lines: Week 8

2009-10-23T14:32:00.003-04:00

Ooooh yeah, 6-1 last week. The one game I missed was Colorado State +20.5 over TCU, but oh well. That bumps the overall record to 22-13. The lines used for this segment are from College Football Poll's computer picks section which come via Vegas Insider.

Northern Illinois -13 @ Miami OH - The Redhawks may be at home, but they're on the fast track to an 0-12 season. While they were expected to be bad under Haywood's first year of coaching, not many thought zero wins could actually happen. Basically, this team has been beyond horrific. The matchup you want to watch for here is the Husky rushing attack against Miami's poor run defense. They're giving up 173 yards a game going against Meco Brown and Chad Spann. This is easy, take NIU without the points. They should win this by closer to 20.

UNLV -2.5 @ New Mexico - Neither team is playing football that is noteworthy in the most generous use of the term. The Rebels are sitting at 2-5 with a four game losing streak while New Mexico is reeling at 0-6. This team could seriously be one of the worst in the nation and that's an absolute shock compared to the stability that Rocky Long had in place although they hadn't done anything earthshattering since maybe 2004. UNLV though looks like a much better team. They got through the toughest part of their schedule with that always-difficult road test at Wyoming, Nevada, BYU, and Utah. On the other sidelines, turmoil is at its peak with the whole Mike Locksley situation. Besides potential All-American LB Carmen Messina, nothing has gone right. UNLV will win this by 10+ at least. Even a FG win and a surprising effort from New Mexico would result in a win for UNLV's spread outlook, so the Rebels should have the upper hand in this matchup.

Idaho @ Nevada -11 - Man, this is a close game. Can Idaho actually beat a good team on the road? If you want to count Northern Illinois as a good team, that mission has been accomplished by the Vandals. Nevada has gotten back on a tear offensively led by their running game which mysteriously went missing from Chris Ault's pistol repertoire for the first three games. You can't overlook the fact though that Idaho is 6-1 and on a five game winning streak. There is an aura of confidence about them. My only hesitation here would be that the Wolf Pack are looking like a much better team at home. The one that got smoked at Notre Dame, lost at Colorado State, and almost got upset last week against Utah State could be starkly contrasted with the one that gave Missouri a game, ran over UNLV, and whipped Louisiana Tech. I'll take Idaho +11 here because I think they have a shot to win the game; at the least, I'd expect this to be within single digits.

Akron @ Syracuse -9.5 - Again, maybe it's because I'm more knowledgeable about the MAC being a fan of the conference at-large, but there are a lot of lines that seem like easy-picking and this is definitely one of them. The Zips are on a four game losing streak against Indiana, Central Michigan, Ohio, and Buffalo. Their average margin of defeat? 15 points per game. That doesn't bode well. The offense has been horrendous and J.D. Brookhart's job is probably going to be open this winter. Matt Rodgers has been extremely unreliable, although it's not like he's getting any help; This has resulted in the emergence of Patrick Nicely, a freshman, who isn't going to tear it up immediately. Syracuse looks to be improved from last year and even with the inconsistency from Paulus at the QB position, with playmakers such as Mike Williams to chuck the ball to, the Orange should have no issues offensively at home. This game has blowout written all over it, so take Syracuse.

Oregon -5.5 @ Washington - This game is a little tricky mainly due to Washington playing better at home generally. They almost upset LSU, beat USC, luckily beat Arizona, and defeated Idaho which is looking a little better every week. The Ducks come into this game on a five game winning streak and Chip Kelly has taken total control after the LaGarrette Blount fiasco. Masoli hasn't really returned to form in the passing game, but Oregon has remained true to their gashing spread running ability. I'd expect LaMichael James to have a field day against the 86th ranked Washington run defense. Oregon will win this game by double-digits, but it's on the road so stay wary.

Boise State -24 @ Hawaii - You never really know what to expect for this game, but Hawaii will be hosting Boise State in an environment that often results in a competitive matchup. The Warriors have officially tanked with four straight losses. Was that to be expected, though? Hawaii is rarely as competitive on the road as they are at home and that's where three of those four games occurred. Boise State, on the other hand, is coming off of a touchdown victory at Skelly Stadium in Tulsa. You get this team off of the blue turf and they become that much easier to beat. Greg Alexander is out for the year, but watch Bryant Moniz keep this game within reach. Boise State will get up big, but look for Hawaii to put up some meaningless points. They won't be within distance to pull off an upset, but look for the Warriors to cover. Take Hawaii +24.

Florida -24.5 @ Mississippi State - Here's another projected blowout by a road team. I've been taking some road favorites recently, but I've been skeptical of Florida and these large spreads. Florida favored by 25 over Tennessee. Fail. Florida favored by 22 over Arkansas. Fail. Granted they blew out Kentucky, but that was before Tim Tebow got injured. Tebow was healthy against Tennessee, but that doesn't invalidate the point. Urban Meyer has gone Jim Tressel on all of our asses! He's coaching so conservatively and letting his defense carry most of the load. You can argue whether or not that's the right thing to do, and it probably is, but that doesn't justify the size of these spreads. Mississippi State looks a little better on both sides of the ball compared to the disastrous Sylvester Croom era and, kind of like the USC/Washington deal, Dan Mullen is a former assistant for the Gators and should have some inside info. Florida will win by close to 20 on the road, but a 25 point win is a bit of a stretch in my opinion. Take Mississippi State.

Game Previews: PVAM vs. Southern, FSU vs. UNC

2009-10-22T14:21:00.003-04:00

When: 7:30 PM ET, ESPNU

Why You Should Care: This game might as well decide the SWAC, or at least the Western division. There's still Grambling State to worry about, but these two schools seem to be the frontrunners right now. Prairie View A&M has really turned their football program around in recent years and Southern's offense is lighting up the scoreboard. Should make for an interesting matchup.

Prairie View A&M Will Win Because...: Defense. The Panther D is allowing 14 points against per game which is pretty solid. They gave up 21 to New Mexico State and lost by a field goal earlier this year. The Jags like to air it out and that plays right into the hands of A&M's strength in their secondary.

Southern Will Win Because...: They have the playmakers offensively. You can praise Prairie View's defense all you'd like, but they gave up 32 earlier this year to Grambling State as well. So while they are solid, they aren't world-beaters. The Jaguars have the arm of Bryant Lee behind center who is 28th in passing efficiency throughout the FCS. Their turnover margin benefited big time from last week against Fort Valley State, but number one is number one and that is what Southern is in the turnover department.

Keep an Eye on...: Southern WR Juamorris Stewart. If you haven't seen Stewart play yet, you're missing out on a solid athlete. Stewart has 600+ yards receiving already to go with 8 TD grabs.

And the Crystal Ball Says: I'm really torn here, but I'll take Praire View A&M. This is probably a bad idea considering they're on the road, but I'd like to watch the matchup between their defense and Southern's offense. Things should cancel out and make this an evenly contested game, so I'll go with the defensive prowess to win, 27-21.

When: 8:00 PM ET, ESPN

Why You Should Care: With all of the hype surrounding Bobby Bowden's future, just look at what Butch Davis has done at North Carolina. The Tar Heels were expected to compete for a division title, but they've proven to have no substance as of right now. Things are still building in Chapel Hill, but they can get things turned around quickly with a win against a reeling Noles team.

Florida State Will Win Because...: Okay, even if Florida State doesn't make a bowl game, that doesn't suggest a lack of talent. They have been in every game so far this year, so is it possible that they just haven't been able to seal the deal yet? Maybe those three ACC games and the USF loss were just unfortunate circumstances and odds; it's possible to flip a coin four times and get four tails in a row right? As for some more concrete analysis, the offense has done a much better job moving the football around. If Christian Ponder was on a winning team, this guy would be getting some Heisman love. He's 6th in total offense in the FBS so far and the Noles have the 27th best offense.

North Carolina Will Win Because...: It was Georgia Southern, but they ended the bleeding of that disappointing two game losing streak. Saying North Carolina is ailing might be a little harsh, but the offense has been very disappointing against the better defenses on their slate. Sure they had success against ECU, The Citadel, and GSU, but scoring more than 30 against Florida State has not proven to be very difficult so far this year. North Carolina, believe it or not, has the top pass defense in the country. That could be because five of six of their opponents are running-intensive offenses (probably why), but we shouldn't sell them short in the secondary; they will limit Florida State's passing game.

Keep an Eye on...: DE Robert Quinn of North Carolina. If there's one reason North Carolina's pass defense has managed to keep the lid on the opposing QBs, Quinn might be it. He's racked up 7 sacks and 3 forced fumbles already this year. If he's disruptive, Florida State loses. Simple as that.

And the Crystal Ball Says: Man, am I really going to pick Florida State to win a conference game? Yes, yes I am. I still don't believe this team will be bowling come December since they're already 2-5 (that includes a future loss to Florida that's in the bag). So there are plenty of opportunities to lose, but this is a team that has just fallen to, as mentioned earlier, unfortunate circumstances. They're better than 2-4 and 0-3 in ACC play for sure and their offense will do enough to keep the leaky defense afloat. It will be a close and somewhat sloppy game, but FSU finally gets in the win column, 34-20.

Game Preview: Tulsa vs. UTEP

2009-10-21T17:16:00.002-04:00

When: 8:00 PM ET, ESPN

Why You Should Care: It's a battle between C-USA West titans! That might be a bit generous for Mike Price's UTEP Miners, but the boys from El Paso are indeed in the running for a bowl game. This game will go a long way in determining the division champ considering UTEP has already defeated Houston. Tulsa will attempt to get back on track after a touchdown loss to Boise State last Wednesday.

Tulsa Will Win Because...: Without no-huddle wizard Gus Malzahn, the Tulsa offense has dipped. However, should they have much issue against UTEP's defense which is allowing close to 495 yards per game? This is certainly one of the worst units in the nation and Tulsa should pick them apart. The Miners have been kind of hit-or-miss this year with their scoring offense ranked 82nd in the country.

UTEP Will Win Because...: C-USA West in recent years has been weird to Tulsa and Houston. Remember last year when Houston beat Tulsa 70-30? Of course the Miners beat the on-fire Houston Cougars this year and absolutely demolished their defense in the process. Last year SMU almost knocked off Tulsa and Houston in back-to-back weeks and that was then they were 1-11. So all in all, this is a division where just about anything can happen.

Keep an Eye on...: RB Donald Buckram, UTEP. Who's Donald Bruckram? Funny you should ask, he happens to be the 19th best running back in rushing yards per game. I'm not going to blame you if you've never heard of him because he has broken out this year from obscurity. With a 260+ yard effort against Houston at home, if the Miners can grind out some big chunks of yardage on the ground, they might have a shot in this game.

And the Crystal Ball Says: Common sense would tell us Tulsa will win, but common sense doesn't mean much in C-USA West. I'm still going with Tulsa. UTEP's offense has been sporadic, but their defense has managed to be consistently porous. Look for Tulsa to win a high-scoring affair with UTEP showing up to play, 47-44.

Fun With Google Searches

2009-10-20T14:28:00.003-04:00

We all know that Google is the pulse of the people! Via Google searches, we have found out lots of things, like the public's fear of Chinese people. Well, here I decided to find out what some people thought about those prevalent in the college football universe today. I apologize if the images are a bit small and hard to read, just click on them and the resolution should be readable.

-I just thought the last one on here was sort of interesting. I didn't know Alabama fans thought Meyer was the second coming of Bear Bryant when Nick Saban is!

-Searches for player's or coach's wives or girlfriends are going to be a recurring theme on some of these. The Internet is a horny place!

-Rich Rodriguez is an ax murderer? I knew West Virginia fans lost their collective mind over him leaving, but man! I heard he burnt down an orphanage for starving, dyslexic kids in Uganda too.

-It's true, Mike Locksley is doing horribly in his first season in New Mexico and he assaulted on his assistants, but he does indeed have a hot wife.

-I'm not sure whether or not this needs an explanation.

-If you take a look at the last one, I was assuming searches for his lisp would have been more common than that. Actually, lisp didn't come up when you typed in "lou holtz l".

-Ah, Lane Kiffin. Outside of Rich Rodriguez (maybe RichRod inclusive) is there a more reviled coach in America? Nobody in the SEC, or outside for that matter, who doesn't live in Knoxville hates this guy. I think Google just proved that right here.

-Again, the Internet is a horny place. Most of you readers already know my stance on Erin Andrews by now.

-No explanation is necessary.

The Week That Was: Week 7

2009-10-20T11:38:00.008-04:00

1. Slow and Sloppy Wins the Game

You certainly can't fault Texas or Florida for winning. We all know the saying, "Just win, baby." I don't care, I'll do it anyway. Does Florida or Texas look like all-timer kinds of teams? Texas got the sympathy vote, but they were expected to have a really good year and go undefeated at the #2 slot in most polls. I'll give Oklahoma's defense some props, but Texas has been underwhelming all season. Florida on the other hand had everybody back on defense, experienced skill position guys, and Tim Tebow coming back to the offense and we get.....23-20 over Arkansas and 13-3 over LSU? Hardly dominant. We all expected this to be the type of team that steamrolled everyone by 35 points.

The Heisman race is the most dull its ever been. To anybody who thought that the preseason race didn't mean anything, this is case-in-point that it does. Tim Tebow's statlines are 3.8 ypc, 8 TDs, 2 picks, and a shade above 1000 yards passing. Don't get me wrong, there are a ton of guys out there who would like to have those numbers, but there's no question Tebow has had more successful seasons. The one thing Colt McCoy has going for him? Well, he didn't get injured compared to Sam Bradford. These two are in the race because they're quarterbacking two of the title favorites and had the necessary hype heading into the season. Just some food for thought.

2. Boilers and Bucks: Alter Egos?

What happened here? I couldn't believe this. Out of all the games being played this week, if somebody said Purdue would beat Ohio State, that's the kind of prediction you just scoff at and say, "no, there is no way this upset can happen. Okay, .1%, but who's counting?" and go on with your day. Well, the assumed impossible did happen in West Lafayette: The 1-5 Boilermakers beat a ranked Ohio State team.

What is so amazing about this is that this is the type of win that Purdue could never get under Joe Tiller, even with better teams. Tiller played in a couple New Year's bowls and a Rose Bowl, but he could never rack up that all-important win. Now, it's looking like Purdue will experience a 4 win season instead of a 3 win year, but that loss has to be so devastating for the Buckeyes. Their trench play finally cost them a game it shouldn't have lost. The story more than Purdue here is Ohio State. The Boilermakers, as I just said, will still suffer a losing season (although you may see strides being made), but Ohio State's shoddy line play finally caught up with them. If you criticize Terrelle Pryor for struggling to develop into a pocket passer, it may be true that he's a raw specimen, but you also have to realize that this is the softest group with a boatload of talent. There's no physical play for Ohio State's offensive line and that has been their issue, especially in those big stage title games.

3. Disappointing Officiating

Going back to that Arkansas/Florida game, the Razorbacks obviously shot themselves in the foot. They stunk in the kicking game and you could pin some of that loss on Tejada. The fact of the matter is though, officials need to get better. Replay isn't going to solve everything (although I do believe that replay should be extended to penalties and everything. Why limit your technology? Of course, I'd keep that restricted to coach's challenges or else the game would take 10 hours).

Is it just me, or does the favorite in a game always get these calls? You would never see Arkansas benefit from something like that, it's always Florida, Notre Dame, USC, or Ohio State. I guess that's why they're called upsets, just a pet peeve of mine. Still, I have a couple ideas. I don't know whether or not we should abolish conference officials and just go to NCAA ones. Make them full-time. Get them all on the same page. They suck right now and there's no getting around that. You watch the NFL referees and they probably make one or two "come on, refs!" per game. These guys make our heads spin at least five or six times a game and thank God we have replay to review that. Arkansas isn't the first team to be flagged for a pass interference call that never happened, a celebration, or crappy spotting. Let's fix the ref problem.

4. Incoming Message: Notre Dame Can Face Good Competition (maybe)

What is the census on the Irish? They look like they are still in building mode. There is still work to be done. The question arises if this team will reload next year or continue the success. That'll be a tough one, especially if Jimmy Clausen declares for the NFL draft.

Okay, I just got sidetracked. The story I wanted to talk about is Charlie Weis. He's a lot Lloyd Carr in the sense that he'll get you over the hump, sort of, win 8 or 9 games in good years, lose to the teams he's supposed to, then drop the bowl game in heartbreaking fashion. We've seen this from the 2005 and 2006 versions. If you're at a program with the pressure of a Notre Dame, there's no such thing as moral victories and this doesn't count. You're at home and this isn't your average USC (meaning they're worse than usual). I still think the Irish can be a top 25 team in 2009, but people thinking they were BCS-ready after last year's 6-6 mark were either sorely mistaken or delusional. If this team survives by the skin of their teeth the rest of the way against Boston College, Navy, UConn, Pitt, or Stanford (I think this team has one more loss in them), then they will get absolutely spanked in their BCS game (maybe by a Boise State or TCU even). If Notre Dame is interested in returning to national title form, they should go after Brian Kelly (who I think is Catholic? Not that it matters). Strategic advantage my rear.

5. Idaho Continues "WTF Tour: 2009"

In one of the most inexplicable turnarounds in college football history (yes, this trumps 2006 Rice or 2005 UCF), the Idaho Vandals are bowl eligible. Okay......Gonna let that sink in for a second......Yep......Any time now you should start to acknowledge the fact that the IDAHO VANDALS ARE BOWL ELIGIBLE.

The shock of that fact aside, Idaho has benefited from the underdog mentality. Right now it seems as if the boys from the Kibbie Dome feel that respect has to be earned and after some early-season success, the wins just compiled from there. The defense, most notably the secondary, is still giving up some points after playing bad teams, but 6-1 is 6-1. The most attributable factor for this is the development of Nathan Enderle and the three-headed monster at RB. Enderle has matured so well since his freshman and sophomore years where he really struggled; this was mostly due to some poor decision making as every underclassman suffers from, shoddy blocking, and the fact that not a lot of guys got open. Idaho hangs their hat on the offense right now with RBs Woolridge (from Washington State), McCarthy, and the freshman-stud-gone-third-string Deonte Jackson. This doesn't change the fact that Idaho receiving top 25 votes is a little crazy right now. Yes, they are 6-1, but is it a coincidence they are 0-1 versus BCS conference teams? I'm not sure if wins over Hawaii at home, Northern Illinois, or Colorado State warrant top 25 consideration. Still, something is telling me that this year's version of Boise State/Idaho is going to develop into a classic. Call me nuts for that if you wish.

SSO's Totally Worthless Top 25:

1. Alabama
2. Florida
3. Texas
4. USC
5. Miami
6. TCU
7. Cincinnati
8. Iowa
9. Penn State
10. Boise State
11. LSU
12. Virginia Tech
13. Oregon
14. Oklahoma State
15. Georgia Tech
16. Ohio State
17. Pitt
18. Houston
19. Utah
20. West Virginia
21. South Carolina
22. Notre Dame
23. BYU
24. Texas Tech
25. Oregon State

Others Receiving Meaningless Consideration: Boston College, Ole Miss, Central Michigan, USF, Arizona

NOTE: Had to change something last week. There was a glaring inconsistency when I had a one-loss Penn State team over one loss Miami and undefeated Iowa (who beat Penn State). That's the reason for the abrupt change there.

Game Balls!

Tony Pike got injured and the Bearcats were supposed to fold like a chair last Thursday night. Not so, said Zach Collaros! The sophomore backup QB didn't have an extremely effective day throwing the football going 4-7, 72 yards, and a pick, but it was the damage he did on the ground. Collaros ran for 132 yards on 10 carries with two touchdowns to go along with it. Congrats!

I actually don't have a picture for Southern's LB, Antoino Coleman. Coleman had a huge day for the Jags against Fort Valley State. He did get two interceptions and a touchdown on defense. What's sad is that Fort Valley State would have made this game if they didn't throw seven interceptions. Congrats to Coleman for earning a silver Game Ball!

This is one of those dual-awards where I'd like to give it to two QBs, both in the same game. Michigan State transfer Nick Foles finally exploded for the Wildcats of Arizona at home against Stanford for 415 yards and three touchdowns. Arizona won the game 43-38 in a wild west shootout, but Andrew Luck also did his damage. Luck wasn't quite as effective, but he had 423 yards, 3 scores, and a pick. Congrats to both of these guys for well-played games. It's a shame a team had to lose this game.

This segment of the Kool-Aid Report will go into a little bit of what I already stated last Wednesday. The whole hub-ub about Boise State being fourth in the BCS rankings this week. Look, fellas, this isn't going to matter. Sure this is the highest ranked a non-BCS team has ever been at this point in the year, but when all is said and done, Boise State will not be in a position to play for a national championship. Cool your jets. Sure, Congress is talking about taking action and the swell of fans whose anti-BCS bias pushes everything they do deludes them into thinking Boise State is one of the top two teams in the nation after playing one show-me game against Oregon, but THE POLLSTERS WON'T ALLOW IT. Boise State has a bigger issue on their plate, and that's TCU who just might steal their BCS bid if they don't start blowing teams out like they should.

Word of the Week: Verbose
–adjective
characterized by the use of many or too many words; wordy: a verbose report.

I think college football is getting to this point. I've used this theme a lot for the Word of the Week segment, but college football analysis is basically pointless. Even though I like the effect of the BCS on the regular season, teams play for a mythical championship taken as a literal championship, polls make no sense or have very little consistency, and there's no way telling which teams are better than others on a given Saturday; thus, this makes analysis verbose. Can't say it's not fun though!

Bowl Projections: Week 7

2009-10-18T04:14:00.006-04:00

These are updated for October 18th. The Week That Was should be either coming tonight or early Monday, so sorry for the delay. Here they are:

New Mexico Bowl: Idaho vs. Air Force
St. Petersburg Bowl: USF vs. UCF
New Orleans Bowl: Troy vs. ECU
Las Vegas Bowl: Utah vs. Oregon State
Poinsettia Bowl: Arizona State vs. Fresno State*
Hawaii Bowl: Nevada vs. Marshall
Little Caesars Pizza Bowl: Central Michigan vs. Minnesota
Meineke Car Care Bowl: NC State vs. West Virginia
Emerald Bowl: Boston College vs. Stanford
Music City Bowl: North Carolina vs. Tennessee
Independence Bowl: Missouri vs. Auburn
EagleBank Bowl:Northwestern* vs. Temple*
Champs Sports Bowl: Michigan vs. Virginia
Humanitarian Bowl: Boise State vs. BYU
Holiday Bowl: Cal vs. Nebraska
Armed Forces Bowl: Colorado State vs. Tulsa
Sun Bowl:Arizona vs. Kansas
Texas Bowl: Houston vs. Navy
Insight Bowl: Michigan State vs. Texas Tech
Chick-fil-A Bowl: Clemson vs. Arkansas
Outback Bowl: Ohio State vs. South Carolina
Capital One Bowl: LSU vs. Iowa
Gator Bowl: Virginia Tech vs. Notre Dame
Rose Bowl: Penn State vs. Oregon
Sugar Bowl: Florida vs. Miami
International Bowl: Pitt vs. Ohio
Cotton Bowl: Oklahoma vs. Ole Miss
Papajohns.com Bowl:UConn vs. Kentucky
Liberty Bowl: Southern Miss vs. Georgia
Alamo Bowl: Oklahoma State vs. Wisconsin
Fiesta Bowl: USC vs. TCU
Orange Bowl: Georgia Tech vs. Cincinnati
GMAC Bowl:Wake Forest vs. Toledo
BCS Championship: Alabama vs. Texas

Of course, with the way things shaped up yesterday, my BCS projections were basically screwed. So those had to be revamped. My one instance of Texas stumbling was against Oklahoma, but since Bradford got injured, they had the Big 12 locked up for good. They shouldn't lose for the rest of the year. Bama is playing like the best team in the nation right now and they should manage to get to the BCS title game even if they lose once along the way.

For the rest of the BCS, with Virginia Tech's loss, I think this might open up the door for two ACC schools to qualify for the BCS. I project that Miami will lose next week to Clemson (probably wrong) and that Georgia Tech will lose to Georgia at the end of the year (probably wrong). Either way, if at least two of the three teams from the ACC Coastal wind up 10-2 without a 10-2 Notre Dame, I think there could be two ACC schools. I don't know about the rest of you, but I have Notre Dame dropping to Stanford. Or Pitt. Or UConn. Or Boston College. They aren't going through that stretch undefeated, mark it down. Miami is my at-large in this scenario and I think they would be a solid draw. I also don't see Iowa winning the rest of their games. I think the Hawkeyes will also be 10-2, but they'll lose twice in Big 10 play to Michigan State and Ohio State. 11-1 Penn State faces 10-2 Oregon in the Rose Bowl. Hurrah.

For the rest of the games, AGAIN, I will clarify my stance on the EagleBank Bowl. The EagleBank has alternate tie-ins with C-USA, the Big 10, and the MAC. If they can't get Army or an ACC team (likely in my scenario), then they will choose a Big 10 and a MAC team due to my shortage of eligible C-USA teams (which would normally get precedence). With Temple's 4-2 record, they're looking bowl-bound and I only have a lackluster Northwestern team at 6-6. I think the only teams that dropped from last week's projections are UCLA and Northern Illinois.

EDIT: Apologies to Oklahoma fans, as well. I edited this a couple hours ago, but thought I should mention that when I shift around the larger bowl games, I often forget to shift the rest of the pecking order. So when I took the Sooners out of the Fiesta, I forgot to put them anywhere else. Guess it's the Cotton Bowl!

Game Previews: Week 7

2009-10-17T05:58:00.000-04:00

Sacrificial Lambs of the Week (a.k.a., the biggest blowouts)

When: 12:00 PM ET, Big 10 Network

Why You Should Care: Michigan has to stop the bleeding, right? It only makes sense. After dropping consecutive games to Big 10 teams and with their season basically ruined, the Hornets of the MEAC couldn't have come at a better time.

Delaware State Will Win Because...: They're at least battle-tested on the road, right? They've had one home game so far this year against Bethune-Cookman. The Hornets also have a bit of resiliency going for them so far. In one of the largest discrepancies I've ever seen, DSU is 92nd in total defense and 14th in scoring defense in the FCS! That is amazing.

Michigan Will Win Because...: They're just a crapload better. Michigan has the skill position athletes and it's safe to say that Delaware State has never seen an offense like this operate in a venue such as the Big House.

Keep an Eye on...: Tate Forcier's shoulder. His brother thinks its a pretty big deal, but we don't know right now. Denard Robinson should see most of the time to help himself forget about that INT last week against Iowa though.

And the Crystal Ball Says: Michigan. Large. 48-3.

When: 7:00 PM ET, ESPN Gameplan/SEC Network

Why You Should Care: I don't really want to have to put this game on here, but there aren't a lot of FCS/FBS matchups (one to be exact). The Blazers are coming in off of a Thursday night win against Southern Miss while Ole Miss has proven to be quite the paper tiger.

UAB Will Win Because...: Joe Webb. Webb is the glue that holds this team together and the only reason they are remotely competitive. He's probably the most underrated player in the nation. He's only an average passer, but his running skills make him more valuable than most QBs.

Ole Miss Will Win Because...: While the offense has tanked, there should be no worries against UAB's very poor defense. The Blazers rank 112th in total D, so if there's any game where Jevan Snead can start to play like the NFL prospect inside of him, this should be it.

Keep an Eye on...: DE Greg Hardy. Hardy has registered three consecutive games with sacks for the Rebels and while he shouldn't have too many issues against the UAB offensive line, he'll have his hands full chasing around Webb.

And the Crystal Ball Says: Some people think this will be a massive blowout, but I don't really see it. UAB has a little bit of momentum and Ole Miss just looks like they hardly care nowadays. Look for this game to be a comfortable Ole Miss win, just not quite the drilling some are expecting. Rebels take it, 37-13.

When: 7:30 PM ET

Why You Should Care: Again, there's not a lot of large blowouts and I hate to pick on UCF, a team that should go bowling this year, but they're not going to compete with Miami. The Golden Knights do get a shot to defend their home turf where they're usually pretty solid though.

Miami Will Win Because...: That defense is beginning to look better with every week. They were confused against Florida State, but the last two weeks have been two major steps in the right direction even though they most recently disposed of Florida A&M. UCF's offense doesn't have a prayer in this matchup.

UCF Will Win Because...: Their defense has been holding their own recently. They haven't faced off against an offense as talented as Miami's yet, but they haven't allowed 20 points in the last three weeks. The pass defense looks to be a bad matchup for Central Florida, but their run defense has been the story so far.

Keep an Eye on...: LB Collin McCarthy. McCarthy might be one of the more underrated defensive players in the ACC. I won't say the nation, that would be a stretch. But McCarthy is a playmaker, plain and simple. He's a very productive tackler.

And the Crystal Ball Says: Miami should handle UCF without too many problems. Jacory Harris has a dream secondary to throw against and the Golden Knights can't put up enough points on the board to keep pace. Hurricanes win, 40-17.

Reba on CW, or.... (a.k.a., the worst televised games of the week)

When: 3:00 PM ET, ESPN360

Why You Should Care: What are we to make of Utah State? I maintain that New Mexico State is a really bad team, so where did that offense that had served the Aggies so well go to? Nevada on the other hand is starting to heat up and should run the WAC table up to Fresno State and/or Boise State.

Nevada Will Win Because...: The WolfPack have faced off against UNLV and Louisiana Tech, two halfway decent defenses for non-BCS teams, and finished that stretch with close to 1300 rushing yards. That is incredible. The rushing offense has gone nuclear in those games and they have officially returned to 2008 form. Utah State has the 106th ranked rushing defense. Uh-oh.

Utah State Will Win Because...: At least they're moving the football. Nevada's defense is one of the worst in the country; they just happen to be blessed with a great offense. Robert Turbin and Diondre Borel have managed to get the Aggies the 18th ranked total offense. The problem has been punching the ball in for points which could change any second now.

Keep an Eye on...: Robert Turbin. If Turbin can control the game on the ground and carve up Nevada's rush defense, Utah State can keep this close enough to make a game out of it.

And the Crystal Ball Says: The fact that Nevada hits the road again troubles me a little bit. Their first two road games this year have amounted to being outscored 70-20. I think Utah State will keep this game somewhat close in a shootout, but they'll lose it in the end because their defense will play worse. Nevada wins, 45-38.

When: 3:30 PM ET, CBS College Sports

Why You Should Care: Tulane is probably the worst team to have received the most airtime in the country. Seriously, ESPN2 in back-to-back weeks and now they're back on national television. Houston bounced back from their brain cramp against UTEP to beat an SEC team on the road in Mississippi State.

Houston Will Win Because...: That offense should keep scoring points. Tulane is currently allowing 34 points a game and if you think that's due to BYU and Tulsa thrashing them, keep in mind they're fresh off of a streak against offensive juggernauts McNeese State, Army, and Marshall. Right. Case Keenum should have 75 rushing yards, 350 passing yards, and a few scores for another day at the office.

Tulane Will Win Because...: If there's another matchup to keep an eye on, it's Andre Anderson, one of the more unheralded RBs in the country, against Houston's awful defensive line. There was some hope coming into the year, but the Cougars rank 116th in defending the run. Look for Anderson to bust open some big gains.

Keep an Eye on...: WR James Cleveland. One of the better surprises of the 2009 season, Cleveland has emerged as the favorite target of Keenum. He's averaging 8 grabs a game and should find some holes in the Green Wave secondary.

And the Crystal Ball Says: Houston should take care of business, but not without a struggle. Tulane isn't very good, but neither was UTEP. The fact that this game is on the road combined with Andre Anderson should make the Cougars uncomfortable. They should still win by a decent margin, 42-32.

When: 8:00 PM ET, ESPN Gameplan

Why You Should Care: Can Florida Atlantic actually win? You'd think they would get a split between Wyoming and UL Monroe, but it wasn't the case. Now, to borrow a line from Willie Nelson, they're on the road again to take on the 1-4 North Texas Mean Green who have dropped four straight. Somebody has to win.

Florida Atlantic Will Win Because...: They have just been terrible for most of the year. However, they luckily have an accomplished senior QB to fall back on. Rusty Smith has shown the ability to play with adversity as FAU began 1-5 last year and went on to qualify for a bowl game. North Texas is still bad defensively, so there's a chance that FAU can crack that 30 point barrier.

North Texas Will Win Because...: Riley Dodge has shown some ability to manage this offense. Not only has he been alright throwing the ball, thanks to a solid offensive line, he has displayed his running ability as well. Todd Dodge has tried to balance his attack out a little more with Lance Dunbar and Cam Montgomery.

Keep an Eye on...: UNT LB Craig Robertson. Robertson has been an active LB this year so far leading the team in tackles. If he has a big day, don't expect the Owl offense to do too much.

And the Crystal Ball Says: I like Florida Atlantic. Close though. They have to win sometime, right? Over the last two weeks, I'd probably say the Owls are playing the better football. Rusty Smith should eclipse 300 yards this time around so look for about a touchdown difference. FAU wins, 34-27.

These Guys Gotta Show Something (a.k.a., teams with something to prove)

When: 3:30 PM ET, ABC

Why You Should Care: A battle between 3-2 Pac-10 teams? Both share some similarities. Each team went undefeated in their non-conference slate but are 0-2 to start conference play. So much for Cal competing for a Pac-10 title, right? UCLA isn't without their own issues though, especially offensively. This makes for an intriguing game.

Cal Will Win Because...: You've been outscored 72-6 your past two games. You're the favorite on the road. What?!?!? Yeah, I guess so. They still have Jahvid Best and at least Cal has that going for them. By running Best, they should avoid the teeth of the Bruin defense which happens to be the defensive backfield.

UCLA Will Win Because...: Cal might become one-dimensional. As good as Best might be, Riley has to go against Alterraun Verner and Rahim Moore at CB sometime. Kevin Prince should have a decent day against the 91st ranked pass efficiency defense in the NCAA.

Keep an Eye on...: RB Jahvid Best. Best didn't get any help at all over the past two weeks, but if he can bust loose against a solid UCLA defensive front, Cal should be okay offensively. I'll admit that's a bit of a stretch though.

And the Crystal Ball Says: Somehow, Cal will pull this off and end the skid. UCLA is just that bad offensively. It should come down to a low-scoring slugfest with Riley and Prince playing poorly, but Best will make the difference. Cal wins, 20-14.

When: 4:00 PM ET, ESPNU

Why You Should Care: Okay, will you guys stop it and be consistent for a week? Please? Virginia goes from losing to William & Mary, TCU, and Southern Miss pretty decidedly. Then, they shut down North Carolina and wipe out Indiana. Maryland got a good win against Clemson and then fell without much of a fight to Wake Forest.

Virginia Will Win Because...: After giving up 10 points in the last two weeks, this is a Virginia defense that demands respect. The Cavaliers have sealed the door shut on the opposing offenses. Maryland can try all they want, but they'll have a tough time finding the end zone more than once in this game. Maryland can't hold onto the football or protect Chris Turner at all.

Maryland Will Win Because...: Virginia is probably worse at pass protection than Maryland which is saying something. The Terrapins have the playmakers on offense to do some damage to that suddenly-stout UVA defense in Torrey Smith.

Keep an Eye on...: RB Da'Rel Scott. Right now, Virginia is snuffing out the pass at will, but they have proven to be a little soft against the run. Scott could find some lanes if Maryland decides to block finally.

And the Crystal Ball Says: I don't know. Something is telling me Maryland. Home field hasn't been kind to the Terps quite yet with that razor-thin OT win over James Madison and the loss to Middle Tennessee, but ugh, whatever, give me Virginia. 23-20. You don't need an explanation, nobody knows what is going to happen. Maryland will probably win by 5 touchdowns.

When: 7:00 PM ET, Big 10 Network

Why You Should Care: This game is another one of those "somebody has to win" scenario. Illinois is coming in on a three game losing streak. Their QB play and their defense has been terrible. Indiana was competitive against Michigan two weeks ago, but they've gotten smacked around by Ohio State and Virginia.

Illinois Will Win Because...: In order to post a miraculous comeback and get to 6-6, the Illini need this game more than anything. It's the last game where Illinois should actually be the favorite unless Fresno State melts down. The running game with Dufrene, Ford, and whoever is at QB is actually pretty decent and could be able to pick apart the Hoosier defensive front. They currently rank 45th in rushing offense.

Indiana Will Win Because...: 40 points against 4 FBS opponents? That is so bad its beyond belief. What is amazing is that Eddie McGee and Juice Williams were average QBs at one point in time. Now? They're some of the worst starters in the game today; either that or they're getting absolutely zero help. On the other side of the ball, Ben Chappell should throw against the Illini almost at will.

Keep an Eye on...: Certainly keep an eye on the Illinois QB situation. This is the make or break deal for the rest of Illinois' season. Ron Zook needs some type of production out of either McGee or Williams.

And the Crystal Ball Says: In a very sloppy game, Illinois should finally get on the board against an FBS foe. It appears as if Indiana is giving up after the 41-7 egg they laid against Virginia last week. I don't think Illinois will suck as badly offensively as their athleticism at WR makes the difference in the game. Illinois wins, 28-24.

Upset Alert (a.k.a., what it says)

When: 12:00 PM ET

Why You Should Care: So Stan Parrish hasn't won a game in, what, two decades? It's been about that since his stint at putrid 1980's Kansas State. Some people expected a major dropoff at Ball State, but not from potential undefeated season to 0-6. Bowling Green came off of a huge offensive performance in what amounted to a one point win over Kent State. Let's just say this team is vulnerable.

Bowling Green Will Win Because...: Even though they're 2-4, this is a team that still has the skill and athletic ability to hang some points on the board. The Cardinals are giving up about 30 points on defense per game and if you've seen the rapport built between Tyler Sheehan and Freddie Barnes, they can exploit their defensive weaknesses pretty easily.

Ball State Will Win Because...: This team has been painfully close to winning football games recently. Taking out the Auburn game, this is a team that has lost to those other five by about a TD per game. The offense is close to breaking out at any moment. How can they not? Kelly Page has talent even as a freshman. MiQuale Lewis is a little bowling ball at RB. Briggs Orsbon is as reliable as ever. They're due for a breakout game really, really soon.

Keep an Eye on...: WR Briggs Orsbon. The receiver who broke out last year with Nate Davis has only 300 yards and one touchdown in this disappointing season for the entire offense. Orsbon has a favorable matchup in this one. Also, I can't forget to mention Freddie Barnes of the Falcons who had 22 catches last week.

And the Crystal Ball Says: Sheehan and Barnes won't hook up 22 times, but they will win this game by a hair. Ball State has shown a propensity to fail in the clutch or not complete comebacks and it will bite them for the 6th time in 7 games. Bowling Green will continue on their road to recovery with a 40-36 road victory.

When: 12:30 PM ET, ESPNU

Why You Should Care: Mississippi State, don't schedule this game. If there's been a team from the Sun Belt besides Troy who has found the ability to scare the living crap out of major programs, the Blue Raiders of Middle Tennessee may be it. With a win against Maryland already under their belts, a home game against the Bulldogs could be ripe for an upset.

Mississippi State Will Win Because...: There's one very bad matchup looming here for MTSU: 100th ranked run defense vs. 10th ranked rush offense. Enough said, right? The Blue Raiders have struggled mightily to defend the run and with Anthony Dixon to hand the ball off to, Mississippi State should have no issues scoring points.

Middle Tennessee Will Win Because...: You have to like Dwight Dasher's killer instinct. Another QB like the earlier mentioned Joe Webb, Dasher is an average passer and a great runner. He has a strong arm and while it's not accurate, he does have the 9th rank in total offense in the nation. With the veterans Patrick Honeycutt and Chris McClover to throw the ball to, they could do some damage against the Bulldog's average pass D.

Keep an Eye on...: DL Chris McCoy. Middle Tennessee's playmaker on the defensive line has racked up 8.5 tackles for loss, two sacks, and a fumble recovery. He's not an earthshattering force up front, but he'll be going against a good offensive line Saturday.

And the Crystal Ball Says: I don't have the guts to call for this upset, but it will be a very close game. Mississippi State is a little too powerful offensively even though they are having some growing pains at QB. Middle Tennessee's win over Maryland will play a large part in getting this team mentally prepared to take on another BCS program. Dasher will get his yards and it will come down to the fourth quarter, but Mississippi State's defense will come through on that final drive, 31-27.

When: 3:30 PM ET, ABC

Why You Should Care: Texas Tech needs this game pretty desperately or else their status as a newly-consistent powerhouse will be in jeopardy if it isn't already. Nebraska won a big game in the slop and rain of Columbia, Missouri to notch a bit victory against their rival Mizzou.

Texas Tech Will Win Because...: The offense has found its groove! Okay, so they're fresh off of blowout performances against New Mexico and Kansas State who aren't really the blackshirts on defense, but at least they are currently second in the nation in scoring offense and total offense now.

Nebraska Will Win Because...: While the offensive stats have been padded against three Sun Belt schools, Zac Lee has been impressive. He and Roy Helu Jr. have played very well in their positions all year long. If they have a decided edge over Texas Tech, it's the defense. Bo Pelini has whipped this unit into shape as they are currently surrendering about 8 points a game.

Keep an Eye on...: DT Ndamukong Suh. Suh for the Huskers is a projected top 5 draft pick and he's been playing like it for the most part. Texas Tech is having a couple issues right now in protection and that proved to be an issue down the stretch last season. Their offensive lineman might not be built to handle a guy like Suh.

And the Crystal Ball Says: Texas Tech has one of the best offenses in the country and a solid defense. Nebraska has a solid offense and one of the best defenses in the country. Something has to give. While it defies all logic, give me the Red Raiders. I think they have the ability to move the football against a defense as talented as Nebraska's on the road and I think people will be surprised at how low-scoring this game could become. The Red Raiders will win this with their defense, 27-23.

I Pity Da Fool Who Misses These Games (a.k.a., the best games of the week)

When: 12:00 PM ET, ABC

Why You Should Care: Why wouldn't you care? The Big 12 championship is on the line. The national championship is on the line. It's one of the top rivalries in the game today. Sam Bradford versus Colt McCoy (but they're friends!). Tune in!

Oklahoma Will Win Because...: Sam Bradford is back. I don't think we can make a big enough deal out of this. The Sooners should begin really reaching their zenith offensively with the help of the returning Heisman winner.

Texas Will Win Because...: There are a coupe things going the way of the Longhorns. Statistically, they look like the perfect team that can score at will and defend the run as the number one ranked team in the nation. Oklahoma is 0-2 against their only competition and 0-2 against their only games away from Memorial Stadium.

Keep an Eye on...: DE Jeremy Beal. Beal is third in the country in sacks per game for Oklahoma. If he can get some pressure on the virtually untouchable Colt McCoy.

And the Crystal Ball Says: Oklahoma will win this game and derail Texas' perfect season. The question now will become which one loss team should play the SEC champ. But, that's getting ahead of ourselves. This upset is a bit of a longshot with the performances of Oklahoma on the road/neutral field. With a healthy Sam Bradford, this offense will find its stride and win a shootout, 40-37.

When: 12:00 PM ET, ESPN Gameplan

Why You Should Care: Huh? Wake Forest @ Clemson is one of the top 5 games of the week? Not really, but not many games this week besides USC/Notre Dame or Oklahoma/Texas will have more BCS implications. BCS implications, you say? Sure. The ACC Atlantic is the new Big 12 North. Clemson and Wake Forest will battle in a huge game that can determine the division championship.

Wake Forest Will Win Because...: Clemson's offense has really tanked. After that heart-wrenching loss to Georgia Tech, the Tigers have hit the skids and that culminated in a loss to Maryland last week. Wake Forest isn't a rock through the air defensively, but they're only giving up 21 points per game so far which isn't bad considering their competition.

Clemson Will Win Because...: Wake Forest's strength is passing the football. They're going up against the 8th best pass defense in the country. I think Riley Skinner could be one of the most underrated QBs in the nation, but that doesn't change the fact that the defensive secondary of the Tigers.

Keep an Eye on...: DeAndre McDaniel, DB Clemson. The junior DB has already racked up four interceptions against opposing pass offenses and has turned out to be a pretty good cover player as well.

And the Crystal Ball Says: Take Clemson. The Tigers probably have the better defense and they should get the offense figured out any day now. I think the Tigers still have the capacity to take this division and think they can turn around their play any time. Clemson wins it with defense in Death Valley, 23-17.

When: 3:30 PM ET, NBC

Why You Should Care: The BCS plans for the Notre Dame Fighting Irish should be decided in this game. If they lose, they pretty much need to win out in order to qualify. USC has owned Notre Dame in this recent series, so it will be interesting to see whether or not ND can snap the streak.

USC Will Win Because...: Defense, plain and simple. The Trojans do it much better than Notre Dame's average group. Not to mention this is the first elite defensive group that the Irish have faced all year long. Jimmy Clausen will learn really fast that he can't lob the football up to Golden Tate and have him go get it against this secondary.

Notre Dame Will Win Because...: Homefield should play a big factor in this game. Playing in front of a riled crowd should definitely work to their benefit. Jimmy Clausen, make what you will of his competition, is still first in the nation in passing efficiency.

Keep an Eye on...: DE Nick Perry. For a Trojan defense desperate for fresh faces, the freshman has been racking up the sacks. He's dropped the QB six times already and is facing a Notre Dame offensive line that has struggled against some less-than-stellar defenses.

And the Crystal Ball Says: That will certainly be the difference in this game. Even if Barkley throws one touchdown, one pick, 150 yards, and 50% completion percentage, if USC can contain the Notre Dame offense, they should win this game. Hand the football off to Joe McKnight and call it a day. USC wins on the road, 31-16.

When: 6:00 PM ET, ESPN2

Why You Should Care: Okay, Virginia Tech, let's see exactly how much of a national title contender you are. The Hokies have been getting a lot of love from the computers like they normally do, but Georgia Tech is determined to take a step ahead in the Coastal division.

Virginia Tech Will Win Because...: The Hokies have done a great job offensively after offensive coordinator Bryan Stinespring received a lot of fire after their poor performance against Alabama. I'm not sure if Georgia Tech can keep up with the Hokie offense. Wow, I can't believe I just typed that statement.

Georgia Tech Will Win Because...: It normally comes along with better offensive play, but this isn't your usual Virginia Tech defense. They are having some issues against the run so look for the Yellow Jackets to score some points as well.

Keep an Eye on...: WR Demairyus Thomas. Since Paul Johnson left Navy, the Middies have had that knack for making huge plays through the air although few and far between. GT is kind of the same way with Thomas coming to the program that produced Calvin Johnson only to find out that they would begin running the option. Thomas is still a big part in the offense and has that home run ability even with limited touches.

And the Crystal Ball Says: It'll be a close, and any game that could basically decide a division in college football always makes for some intrigue. The Hokies on the road are a tough pick to make since they are near unbeatable in Blacksburg right now, but I'll have to take VT. Georgia Tech has played very bad defense, especially the last two weeks. Give me the Hokies, 37-30.

When: 7:45 PM ET, ESPN

Why You Should Care: How much of a shot does South Carolina have on the road to beat the #2 team in the nation? Probably not a whole lot, but they are a ranked one-loss team, so we'll have to give them credit for that. Lots are saying the Crimson Tide are playing the best football in the nation (this blogger happens to be one of them).

South Carolina Will Win Because...: The Gamecocks' strength throughout the entire team lies in the secondary. Greg McElroy has had some real success chucking the ball to his talented receivers, but can he afford to do that against Alabama? That's the question heading into this game. USC East has the 6th ranked passing defense in the country.

Alabama Will Win Because...: This team has it all, pretty much. Not to mention they're in Tuscaloosa. Mark Ingram and Trent Richardson each have a great blend of power and breakaway speed. The offensive line has done one of the best jobs in the nation powering holes for the running game. Not to mention that defense has been incredible so far by allowing 12 points per game.

Keep an Eye on...: QB Stephen Garcia. The Tide will bring the pressure so it'll be up to the somewhat mobile Garcia to make plays. The Gamecock offensive line has really struggled thus far so they're going to need a good day up front in order to compete.

And the Crystal Ball Says: Alabama should win this comfortably. Think of almost a repeat from last week's 22-3 win over Ole Miss. It'll be overpowering, but it won't entirely show on the scoreboard. South Carolina is well on their way to an 8-4 type season and a New Year's Day bowl game, but they're not going to beat Bama on the road. Bama will win this offensive balance and defensive power on their way to a final score of 27-10.

Bonus Pick'em (Would like to do five more for "Best of the Rest" but ran out of time)

Michigan State 32, Northwestern 24
Wisconsin 30, Iowa 23
Ohio State 38, Purdue 10
Florida 40, Arkansas 21
Oklahoma State 45, Missouri 31
Arizona State 24, Washington 18
Penn State 42, Minnesota 13
Auburn 43, Kentucky 20
Arizona 28, Stanford 26
Utah 31, UNLV 14

Game Preview: Pitt vs. Rutgers

2009-10-16T13:00:00.000-04:00

When: 8:00 PM ET, ESPN

Why You Should Care: Could this game mean more in the longrun of the Big East than we might assume? Pittsburgh recently managed a big comeback against UConn in which they trailed by 15 near the end of the third quarter. Rutgers has "bounced back" from their opening loss to Cincinnati by beating Howard, Florida International, Maryland, and Texas Southern. Big whoop. Let's see what they can do against a living, breathing opponent.

Pitt Will Win Because...: The Panthers probably have the tidier defense. You don't really know what to make of Rutgers; either their stats have been inflated after facing four cupcakes plus Maryland, or they were really that bad when Cincinnati lit them up. Pitt has some issues against the pass, but that will be far from an issue against a Rutgers team that has struggled all year at QB. Part of that has been a very shoddy offensive line. Think about this: Pitt ranks 3rd nationally in sacks while the Scarlet Knights are 100th in sacks allowed. Against that competition!!!?

Rutgers Will Win Because...: Rutgers may have some issues, but they do have two things going for them. Their defense has found ways to create turnovers while the running game has gotten into a bit of a rhythm. Joe Martinek has proven to be a solid runner so far giving a Rutgers team with a true freshman QB something to lean on. Once again, the competition may have something to do with this, but they have averaged a +2.4 average turnover margin after these five games.

Keep an Eye on...: QB Tom Savage. Savage will be running for his life against Pittsburgh. If he can do well under pressure, look for Rutgers to hang in this game at home.

And the Crystal Ball Says: Take Pitt. The Panther pass rush should prove to be everything and more of what the porous Rutgers O-line can handle. Savage needs time in the pocket and if he doesn't get it, the results will be devastating. Meanwhile on offense, Pitt will play ball control and field position to win the game, 28-13.

I Walk the Lines: Week 7

2009-10-15T17:47:00.004-04:00

Darn, 3-4 again. That drops the record to 16-12 on the year. I thought I'd be doing better than this! The lines I'm using come from Vegas Insider and College Football Poll. Here are some lines that I like heading into Week 7:

Colorado State @ TCU -20.5 - This seems like a large spread, right? TCU is a good team and all. We know the type of defense this program has been famous for and even though Colorado State is one a three game slide, they might be able to keep it within what basically amounts to three touchdowns. With last week's home performance against Utah, it looks as if the Rams didn't let that two point comeback road loss to Idaho get into their psyches. TCU on the other hand struggled against Air Force, althoughbeit on the road. The 5-0 Horned Frogs have shown a little more explosiveness offensively compared to past seasons, but a lot of those points have come against Texas State and SMU. The defense right now "only" ranks 17th in the country which is a little low for what TCU has been accustomed to. Look for TCU to win by 17 and for the Rams to cover.

Washington @ Arizona State -3 - The Sun Devils under Dennis Erickson. Has anything been quite as much of a letdown? They had a sleeper-type season in 2007 although they turned out to be sorta fraudulent. Then comes 2008, and they don't even go to a bowl game at 5-7. This appears to be the same type of team on paper. They of course almost took out Georgia in Athens, but they failed to defend their home turf against Oregon State. Washington is well on their way to a bowl game, especially if they can take this game and improve to 4-3. The thing I think a lot of people are missing with UW is their defense. They have been really bad so far this season. They're currently giving up 418 yards per game. Granted they've faced a tough schedule, but their tackling and coverage have been pretty shoddy overall. ASU's offense has been nothing to write home about, the defense has been stellar. I'd look for that trend to continue as they get a nice, close home win. Look for this game to be decided by about 7-10 points in favor of the Sun Devils.
Central Michigan -7 @ Western Michigan - I have no clue what to make of Western Michigan right now. The Broncos earned a win against Miami OH who basically beat themselves and only got a two touchdown victory against Hofstra. After getting whipped by Northern Illinois 35-3, they exploded against Toledo for 534 yards of offense against a team that appears to be similarly schizophrenic. Central Michigan on the other hand has proven me wrong about Butch Jones. I still believe Jones is kind of a douchebag, but after the win against Michigan State, this is a program with a bit of swagger to it. The only close game so far was a road win against Buffalo. They've managed to lambaste just about everyone after that. The offense, led by LeFevour, is still humming, but the story of the season so far is the defense. With the average play from Tim Hiller entering this game, look for the bad Western Michigan team to show up and lose by closer to 20 than 7. Take the Chips minus the points here.

UL Lafayette -7.5 @ Western Kentucky - Western Kentucky is getting some generous respect from Vegas recently. Last week in the I Walk the Lines segment, I called FIU to beat WKU by larger than 7.5 points and sure enough, they did. UL Lafayette is probably having a better season so far compared to the Golden Panthers and even though the Hilltoppers are at home, this game looks to be a blowout on paper. UL Lafayette got blown out a couple times against some powerhouse programs, but the 4 point win last week against North Texas makes things seem like they're pointing back in the right direction. RB Undre Sails and QB Chris Masson shouldn't have too many issues navigating the 120th ranked defense in the nation (that's dead last in the nation). If Western Kentucky lost at home to Central Arkansas by 21 points, how are they going to keep this game within a touchdown and change? Can't like those odds at all. ULL should win this by 20+.

Arkansas @ Florida -22 - The Gators are favored by 22 points this Saturday against the Razorbacks. Arkansas finally came up with a big win after struggling against Georgia and Alabama, so at least they're in the SEC win column. Bobby Petrino has proven that his guys can score with the leadership of what I will still refer to as the second best QB in the SEC, Ryan Mallett. Florida on the other hand went into Death Valley and came out with a 13-3 win. Urban Meyer was definitely protecting Tim Tebow, not asking him to do too much, and letting his defense take care of the pathetic LSU offense. Will that be the same case here? Pretty much. Florida will certainly have to score a little bit more to win this game securely so look for the reins to come off of the Tebow Express here. Tebow should run the ball a little more and chuck it around more effectively. He should be past the stage where 2 + 2 = 5 in his brain. What I'm getting at is that Florida should win this game comfortably. The Gator D will keep the Hogs in check for the most part and Florida should score about 30 offensively. Look for this game to be within 3 scores via a garbage-time touchdown from Arkansas.Georgia -9.5 @ Vanderbilt - Vanderbilt lost to Army in overtime last week. Enough said here, right! Pretty much. Georgia got flat out destroyed against a Tennessee team that doesn't even really look all that good in the first place. Still, I can't see how Vandy can keep A.J. Green in check here. Look for Green to have a big day and for the Bulldogs to win this by double-digits. A 10 point win would do it for you the way this spread is designed, so take Georgia without the points.

Miami -13.5 @ UCF - Miami is at Central Florida? Yep. The Golden Knights have proven to have these peak-and-valley seasons from one to the next. They can win the C-USA title one year and then win four games the next. George O'Leary would probably like a little more consistency. I don't expect Miami to take this game seriously, but this is a bit of a generous home spread (again). Jacory Harris has done his thing ranking 17th in passing efficiency. Even though Miami's defense is a little down compared to previous years, they have shaped up in recent weeks. Central Florida is, once again, terrible offensively even though they have made modest improvements compared to 2008. 13.5 points is too big a mountain for UCF to climb. I'd expect Miami to win this by a bunch. Take Miami -13.5 here.