Blue County in a Red State

INDOT takes Buzzcut's advice on the Cline Avenue Bridge

2009-12-29T06:58:00.000-08:00

I have stated previously that INDOT should just abandon the Cline Avenue Brige in place. We don't have the money to fix or replace the brige. Just let the thing rot in place.

That's EXACTLY what INDOT is going to do.

There is some confusion in the article as to exactly what INDOT is going to do with the bridge. One section says that it will be demolished, but another says that it will just be abandoned.

I put my money on the later.

The brige simply isn't necessary. The Toll Road is a very effective detour, it more or less takes you anywhere that Cline Ave. does.

I also think that this vindicated my contention that the bridge was inproperly designed in the first place. You can't simply redeck the bridge, as INDOT planned to do in 2012, becuase a rebuilt bridge still isn't strong enough to take the likely loads (big trucks and whatnot).

More than likely, the bridges design was such that it could not be easily retrofited to fix its design deficiencies.

Obama administration not doing too well on terrorism

2009-12-27T08:47:00.000-08:00

The latest story on the Nigerian terrorist who tried to blow up a plane on the way to Detroit says that the US government knew of this guy, and his father had tried to warn the US embassy that he was up to something.

The bio of this guy is interesting. He was from a wealthy, educated, elite Nigerian family, and was an engineering student in London.

So much for the liberal idea that poverty and US "oppresion" creates terrorists.

The bottom line is that this is the second failure of US conterterrorism during the Obama administration. It could be just bad luck on his part, or maybe the change in administration did lead to a lessening of our counterterrorism ability. It's hard to tell.

My biggest beef is not that this guy got through airport security, but that the various agencies in charge of counterterrorism still aren't talking to one another, and political correctness still trumps safety. I don't think that this was a problem that started with the Obama administration, but Obama, being who he is, is not the person to fix the problem. Nothing short of a President Cheyney will fix it, sadly.

The inside scoop on the Cline Avenue Bridge from a real structural engineer

2009-12-25T13:36:00.000-08:00

So I got a LETTER (not an e-mail, a LETTER, on paper) from a retired engineer who knows what's what on Cline Avenue:

Dear Buzzcut,

Thanks for writing the Times about the Cline Ave. Extension.

Based on my 15 years with the New York Central Chief Engineers Office in Chicago, and with my own firm on Phumb, Tuckett and Associates, where, among other things, I served as Bridge Engineer for a dozen small railroads and inspected some 2000 bridges, I wrote the Post-Tribune and complained about the engineer who designed post-tensioned concrete girder.

They failed to realize that the voids around the steel cables needed to be sealed to keep moisture out. This led to extensive corrosion, which was bad design.

In order to save repairing every bit of corrionsin loss on all those bridges, I ruled that up to 25% of main material lost to corroison should be allowed under the factor of safety between design strength and yield strength of the steel.

Of course, most bridges were then of a 36 steel and were over 50 years old, on the railroads.

Following my thinking, the deficiencies in design that you found could all be accepted as almost under the factor of safety, and so do not need to be improved upon.

I'm 92 now, retired, but would still like to talk to you about this Cline Ave. Please give me a call.

I'll give him a call and let you know what he says. I have no doubt that he's 92, his handwriting looks like it!

As for the factors of safety found by URS, I don't see how that they could possibly be acceptable, but I'll let this guy explain it to me.

We don't need "ethics reform". We need political competition.

2009-12-21T12:28:00.000-08:00

Another one of the Times' jihads is ethics reform.

As the Times would tell you, if we just had the right laws, if we just had politicians take the right training, we wouldn't have any more scandals.

Meantime, the Times just keeps on endorsing Democrat after Democrat.

That's not how you stop corruption. You stop corruption by electing DIFFERENT PEOPLE.

If the Times, and voters, held the Democrats responsible for their corruption by endorsing and electing Republicans, corroption would be less of a problem.

As it is, Democrats spit in the Times face, and they take it. Over and over and over...

BTW, it's not like local Republicans are angels. Their history has some corruption in it as well, just nowhere near as much as Democrats. And that's not the point anyway. The point is that political competition makes things better, and machine politics makes it worse.

Health care passes. Is the Republican Revolution on the way?

2009-12-21T12:11:00.000-08:00

Is 2010 the new 1994? Senate Democrats just made it that much more likely.

Strangely, Evan Bayh was a swing vote in favor, and he's up for reelection in '10. Yet it doesn't seem to me that he's very vulnerable, nor that there are quality candidates lining up to take him on.

Dumezich had $13 million raised to take Bayh on, but dropped out because of some favorable-to-Bayh polling that indicated that Bayh would win easily.

So... how can there be a revolution if Bayh has an easy reelection?

Are gun owners idiots?

2009-12-21T12:03:00.000-08:00

The Times has been on a bit of a Jihad lately about gun owners who illegally shoot others. Their theory is that gun owners don't know that lawful force can only be used to protect yourself, not your property. They think that there is an epidemic of people being killed for, say, breaking into cars. They think that the solution is warning labels where you buy your guns 'n' ammo.

Strangely, I got a comment on a completely unrelated (and outdated) blog post, on this subject:

Henry Pettigrew has left a new comment on your post "Lake County is run by a convicted felon":

Re: Editorial "Teach When it's Safe to Shoot."

Responding to the question:
"Should stores that sell weapons and ammunition be required to teach gun owners what constitutes self-defense?"

Response: It it should be a State of Indiana requirement for anyone purchasing any type of weapon or ammunition to receive firearm training by certified instructors.

If it was left up to stores for the training, it is likely that the training would lack credibility and consistency.

The dangers with weapons are not that of just self-defense, it is a matter of having enough awareness of use of the weapon,the legalities of using the weapon and safety. There are too many of us who only have a television and movie version of the use of weapons.

I don't think that the Times or Henry Pettigrew make their case. Is there really an epidemic of this kind of shooting? Are the shooters really just otherwise law abiding people making a mistake, or felons who really don't care what the law says?

Indiana's conceal carry laws are the most leniant in the nation, in my opinion, with few requirements for training. I'm willing to look at the evidence to see if Indiana conceal carriers shoot more people unlawfully than, say, Texas conceal carriers (where training is required). But the Times and Pettigrew have not made that case. And my suspicion is that training makes little difference.

Gary fiscal monitor report is just common sense

2009-12-18T12:47:00.000-08:00

Preliminary recomendations from a report by Gary's fiscal monitor are a laundry list of common sense cuts.

Close the Genesis Center.

Get rid of perks like free cars and junkets to conferences.

Pay cuts and layoffs.

One idea that makes sense not just for Gary is for the Gary Sanitation District to stop utilizing property taxes, and to go entirely user fee. That would free up space under the tax cap that the city could then use.

This is an idea also for the Hammond Sanitary District, which also has a property tax.

Going further down that road, how about eliminating Calumet township? That would free up room under the tax cap.

How about eliminating the Gary Transit District and the Gary Airport. Both have property taxes of their own.

Maybe Gary doesn't need to go bankrupt?

Mitch weighs in on pending Gary bankruptcy

2009-12-17T07:07:00.001-08:00

Mitch was asked about his opinion on Gary's pending bankruptcy.

I'm not a big fan of his answer.

He said that Gary could go into "state receivership", and that they should consider a merger with another municipality.

That's a possibility, of course, but who would want to merge with Gary?

I suppose it is possible that all of the Lake County cities could go into receivership, and the state could forcibly merge them.

I much prefer my solution, that Gary go bankrupt and de-incorporate, thus becoming part of unincorporated Lake County.

More on the Cline Avenue Bridge closure

2009-12-14T19:45:00.000-08:00

So I spoke with one of the reporters about the Cline Avenue Bridge engineering report that caused INDOT to close the bridge.

While not agreeing with my conclusion that the report shows that the original design of the bridge was grossly deficient, he did say that he has attempted to contact the consulting engineering firm that produced the report, URS, to verify my interpretation, but they're not returning phone calls.

He also said that he obtained the engineering report completed after the 1983 collapse, and that it recommended a bunch of actions be taken, such as reinforcing certain connections, welding instead of bolting, etc. He has been trying to find someone at INDOT who can verify that the work was completed.

More from the "Candidate of No!"

2009-12-14T19:40:00.000-08:00

No county owned or funded garbage to ethanol plant.

No land based casinos.

No more politicians with last names like Philpot, McDermott, Cantrell, or DuPey.

What else am I missing? What else are people pissed off about?

Just how awful are Gary schools?

2009-12-14T19:28:00.000-08:00

Let me count the ways...

Roosevelt High School has a long and distinguished history. It was built in the '20s as the first black high school in Gary, at a time when there was actual segregation in the district.

These days, history of a different sort is being made.

Roosevelt is in its fourth year of academic probation, according to the state's accountability law, Public Law 221.

The school has gone seven years without making Adequate Yearly Progress under the federal No Child Left Behind Act.

In 2008-09, about 25 percent of Roosevelt students passed the English/language arts portion of the ISTEP. The state average is 67 percent.

Only 15 percent passed the mathematics section. The state average is 68 percent.

In 2008, the school graduated 42.4 percent of its students within four years; the state average is 77.8 percent.

OK, Roosevelt in the worst of the worst. But is the answer to keep throwing money at the problem, or to just shut it down and start over?

Or just give the kids the right to transfer into other schools? Maybe that just spreads the disease.

Or is the answer to give them vouchers, and hope that charter schools take Roosevelt's place>

Would "The Candidate of NO!" have any appeal in Lake County?

2009-12-11T06:14:00.000-08:00

Let me run a theoretical scenario past you.

Let's imagine that there's a candidate for Lake County Council against Tom O'Donnel. This candidate is a Republican.

This candidate's platform is simple: He is the, "Candidate of NO!".

You know, like how liberals say that Republicans are, "The Party of No".

What does "The Candidate of NO?" stand for?

1) No Lake County Income Tax

2) No food and beverage tax

3) No county or regional bus system

4) No South Shore extension

5) No raises for Lake County public employees

6) No full time or part time hiring of new Lake County public employees

7) No convention center

8) No Gary airport expansion

9) No bailouts for Gary

Outside of the "NO!" theme:

1) Consolidate the court system in Crown Point and close ALL satellite courts.

2) Close all satellite county offices and consolidate in Crown Point.

Anything I'm missing?

How about making this a sort of "Contract with America" thing that all candidates for Council pledge to and sign?

Regular airline service at the Gary Airport in 2012?

2009-12-11T06:09:00.001-08:00

Burried in the article about Gary's pending bankruptcy there was this little tidbit about the Gary airport:

Airport officials say they've increased fees, reduced phone bills and left positions vacant to make up for revenue shortfalls.

They said they assume a runway expansion project will be complete by 2011 and Gary will have regular airline service by 2012, which would boost revenues further.

What the hell are they smoking over there? There is absolutely no way that Gary will have regular airline service EVER. This airport is throwing good money after bad, and the scope of the money wasted is staggering.

Worse, they're making private companies waste money on this boondoggle, whether it is the railroads moving lines, the tollway lowering its road, Nipsco moving gaslines, or even BP making it's new vacuum distillation tower shorter than it should be so that it's not in the landing pattern for the airport.

Somebody needs to step in and say, "No more"! Let the airport go bankrupt first, and end this boondoggle once and for all.

Gary Bankruptcy Watch

2009-12-11T06:04:00.000-08:00

The City of Gary is the only municipality in the state of Indiana asking the Department of Local Goverment Finance to waive the tax caps and allow them to tax more than the law allows.

If the state's tax caps were to be fully implemented in Gary, PFM representatives have said the city would only have enough money to pay salaries, but not benefits, to police, fire and EMS workers.

State lawmakers are considering a resolution to place the tax caps in the state's constitution.

If it passes, a referendum would need to be considered by voters next fall.

Successfully placing the caps in the constitution would leave the DUAB powerless to help Gary, so the city may need to learn to live within them by 2012.

The City of Gary will go bankrupt no later than 2012.

When that happens, I predict that they will become an unincorporated entity within Lake County. Police and EMS services will no longer be provided municipally, and the Sheriff and private ambulances will provice policing and EMS, repsectively. A special fire district will be created to handle that service, as it is done in many unincorporated areas.

Cline Avenue Bridge was structurally deficient from day 1!

2009-12-10T12:45:00.000-08:00

The Post-Trib finally got access to the consulting engineering report that caused the state to close the Cline Ave. bridge.

It's here.

Now, I'm not a structural engineer (I'm a lowly mechanical engineer), but I know enough about engineering in general to read that report.

This isn't a report that looked at the current state of the bridge. This report looks at the bridge AS IT WAS DESIGNED AND BUILT IN 1983 and analyzes it with modern tools (computer programs running finite element analysis).

What the report REALLY says is that the bridge was not designed properly in the first place. There are parts of the bridge that were not strong enough to withstand the loads that it was supposed to be designed to.

Now, these design loads are conservative, which is why the bridge has not fallen down in the 25 years of its existence.

But the fact that it is structurally deficient AND has had little maintenance and is in really bad shape helps to explain why the state shut it down with no notice on a Friday afternoon.

Are the aughts the worst decade ever?

2009-12-10T09:36:00.001-08:00

Time says so.

You know, you really need to filter everything that you read in the mainstream media through this filter: traditional media is bankrupt.

Time doesn't have a fraction of the readership or revenues that it used to have.

Other media vertures like the Chicago Tribune and Sun-Times are bankrupt, literally.

So, if you're a journalist, this IS the worst decade ever.

Same if you're an autoworker.

But for most of us, by just about any objective measure you can come up with, we're better off now than in 1999 (which itself was a year in an economic bubble).

How did Mitch and the Moneymen think of Deceased Lake County Republican Chairman Curley?

2009-12-08T14:48:00.000-08:00

So Mitch, Rokita, and all the money guys at Friday night's fundraiser were all in the area Saturday.

Saturday was the memorial service for Lake County Republican Chairman Curley.

None of them showed up for the memorial.

That just goes to show what they thought of Curley.

New Chairwoman Kim Kulll was at the fundraiser Friday night, and was scheduled to speak at the memorial, but didn't show up. I wonder what the deal was with that.

UPDATE: Here's what the deal is with that:

Hey Buzz,
In reference to Kim Krull she was trying to fit both events in but a cold and pneumonia over came her. She didn't want to contaminate everyone and make her situation worse. There was no disrespect intended at all as she was close with John.
John Moos
Crown Point Chairman/County Vice

Thanks John! And thanks for reading this blog!

I stand corrected, nothing sinister to see here.

Mike Kotso running in the First House District

2009-12-07T14:43:00.000-08:00

I had heard that Mike Kotso was running against Lawson in the first district, and he was at the fundraiser on Friday. I was introduced to him, and he is running.

So Buzzcut trumps Frugal Hoosiers.

I believe that Kotso's old man used to hold the seat.

I actually saw him going into the bathroom at Dante's pizza on Saturday night as I was picking up my pizza. Small world.

Buzzcut gets drunk with Mitch

2009-12-05T07:43:00.000-08:00

So I went to Mitch's fundraiser in Chicago. It was a VERY productive use of my time.

In addition to Mitch, I met and talked with the following people:

1) SOS Todd Rokita.
2) Former Speaker of the House Denny Hastert.
3) Hastert's son, who is running for his dad's old seat.
4) Former Illinois Governor Jim Thompson
5, 6, 7) 3 Republican candidates running for Illinois governor.
8) Valpo Mayor Costas
9) Indy Mayor Ballard
10) Indiana State Republican Chairman Murray Clark.
11) Lake County Republican Chairwoman Kim Krull
12) Minority Leader Brian Bosma
13) Republican Candidate for the 19th district Luke Abbott

and a few others that I can't recall right now (well, there WAS an open bar).

Dan Dumezich was there, he pretty much was the mastermind behind the fundraiser, it was his law firm that the event was at. Pretty nice digs they have there, I guess selling the Tollroad was lucrative for them.

Someone I was talking to, who is close to Dumezich, said he dropped out of the Senate race because Bayh is polling very well right now. So even though Dumezich had just as much money as Bayh, he thought the race was insurmountable.

What do rank and file Republicans want?

2009-12-01T06:42:00.000-08:00

A Washington Post poll finds that what critics call "The Party of No" pretty much sums up what rank and file Republicans want from their party.

No bailouts.

No socialized medicine.

No cap and trade.

No amnesty.

Republicans (and Independents) are angry. It would behoove a candidate for office to reflect this anger.

And who is angrier than Buzzcut?

Colorado GOP shows the way

2009-12-01T06:36:00.000-08:00

Like Mitch, the Colorado GOP is gunning to take back state government.

They're embracing Tea Partiers and running a statewide "Contract with America" type program:

Key Points from the Colorado GOP's 'Platform for Prosperity'

Oppose efforts to increase taxes and fees unless they're put to a popular vote

Restore a cap on state spending

Invest in roads, bridges, higher education and workforce training

Support a law to make health insurance portable from job to job

Allow patients to purchase health insurance across state lines

Promote responsible development of Colorado's energy resources

Expand charter schools

Require employers to verify that their workers are in the U.S. legally

Prohibit state grants for women's health care to any organization that also provides abortions

Oppose future stimulus bills

Sounds good to me! I'll ask Mitch if he's going to get something like this going in Indiana.

Why didn't Mitch recruit Buzzcut?

2009-11-30T12:54:00.001-08:00

Commenter Briefs allerted me to a new website Frugal Hoosiers which is a clearinghouse for Republicans trying to take back the Indiana State House.

I'm kind of miffed that "18 quality candidates" have already been recruited to run in Democrat districts, and I never got a call from Mitch. Well, no one ever said I was a quality anything.

I did get a call from the St. John Republican Chairman on Saturday, seeing if I was interested in running against Mara Reardon.

Unfortunately, I'm working on a project that will have me working 85 hours a week next September, October, and November. Not really any time for campaigning in a work schedule like that.

Also, I'd hate to have to delete this blog. ;) It's therapeutic to be able to say what I really think about things, without having to filter it through the "what will the voters think" filter.

What is Mitch Daniels doing fundraising in Chicago?

2009-11-29T20:04:00.000-08:00

The last few weeks, Mitch Daniels PAC has been advertising for a fundraiser in the Times. The fundraiser is taking place in Chicago, in the law offices of the guys that arranged the Tollway sale. If I'm not mistaken, Dan Dumezich works there.

I've been wondering what Mitch's angle is for this fundraiser. First of all, why is it in Chicago, and what is he raising the money for?

The answer to the first question is pretty obvious. Chicago is where the money is. These lawyers made a boatload off the Tollway sale, the least they can do is kick some back to Mitch.

But what is Daniels raising money for?

Speculation is that it's for a Presidential run.

Well, now we know what Mitch says it's for: winning the Indiana House back by Republicans.

I'm more than likely going to go to this. $200 is a lot, but you get to rub shoulders with some big wigs. I've never met Dumezich, I'd like to size him up, especially now that we know he's not running for the Senate.

Incompetance in Calumet Assessors office will cause ALL Lake County tax bills to be late.

2009-11-24T13:43:00.000-08:00

How cool would it be if the DLGF removed the Calumet assessor from office?

From comments to various stories about assessments, it appears to me that the Calumet Assesors office is particularly bad. For example, I've heard that, even after you challenge your assessment and win, the next year they go right back to the bogus assessment. You need to continually fight your assessment with these people.

The DLGF does have the power to remove him from office for incompetance. I'd love to see that happen.

Interesting that the guy is so bad, yet voters voted to keep him around last year. We, in North Township, were a lot smarter and got rid of our assesor.

More numbers on HPV vaccine (Gardasil)

2009-11-21T18:20:00.000-08:00

There are 4000 cervical cancer deaths per year in a population of 149,000,000 women. There are 11,000 cancer cases per year.

If we assume that women have a risk of getting cervical cancer, on average, from age 16 to age 78, that works out to be a 600:1 risk of death (=149M/4000/(78-16)) and a 218:1 risk of cancer.

On the other hand, Federalist and Bubba's guy found that there were 20,000,000 vaccines administered, with 47 deaths and 1052 serious complications.

Another mistake Bubba's guy made was to say that the risk of the vaccine was a risk faced by women every year (and, thus, he divided that risk by 78). That's not true. Vaccination is a one or two time thing, it isn't something that happens every year.

Thus, I would calculate the risk of the vaccine as follows:

First, Bubba's Guy and Federalist agree that the vaccine needs to be adminstered 2 times in order to take. So 20 million vaccinations means that there were 10 million women vaccinated.

Thus, the risk of death from the vaccine is 213,000:1 (10,000,000/47). The risk of serious complications is 10,000:1.

I agree with Federalist that revaccinations need to occur in order to keep people vaccinated over time. Let's assume that there are 4 vaccinations over the woman's lifetime. Risk of death is 53,000:1 and risk of complications is 2500:1.

Weight those risks. The vaccine is order of magnitudes less risky than just hoping that you don't get cancer.