The Political Environment

Guest Post About County Fiscal Policy And Jobs

2009-11-19T22:24:00.002-06:00

I'm happy to post the work of Ph.D candidate John Kovari, who has worked in City Hall and at the Public Policy Forum.

We need more polished, young thinkers like this.

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Lately I’ve been using economic data for some research on economic development, and curiosity led me to test some political assumptions that have popped up recently.

I started with looking at the relationship between taxes and jobs. Debate over the 2010 Milwaukee County Budget has highlighted competing philosophies about how the county’s property tax rate can impact the economy. Shaping the debate is County Executive Scott Walker’s insistence on lowering the property tax rate. It’s an interesting approach, and I wanted to see how the economic data supported it.

First, from Walker’s campaign website, his basic approach:

“The fastest, most effective way to create new jobs is to cut taxes [italics added] and implement regulatory and fiscal policies that encourage job growth and economic investment.”

So what does the historical evidence about property tax rates and jobs size up with Walker’s claim? The statistics I’m using here are the Milwaukee County property tax rate and jobs per 1,000 residents, as identified the federal QCEW reports. In the analysis, taxes are lagged by a year so we can find how taxes in 2000, for example, translated into the number of jobs in 2001.

When we look at the Milwaukee County data between 1990 and 2006, a surprising dynamic emerges. Jobs and tax rate have a positive statistical relationship. Go figure. For you stats geeks, the Pearson’s correlation coefficient is 0.536 and statistically significant (p<0.05).

While the small sample size raises concerns, the econometric evidence doesn’t seem to produce strong evidence for Walker’s claim about stimulating job creation with lower taxes. Key Walker years (2003-2006) have the lowest observed tax rates but also the lowest number of jobs per thousand residents. Years with higher taxes were actuallyassociated with more jobs. (Email me at jpkovari@uwm.edu if you want a graph and the data.)

So, should we use this as evidence for raising the county’s property tax rate and hope for job growth? Of course not.

What the evidence suggests is that the economic situation in counties is more complex than simply focusing on the tax rate. Many other factors are in play when it comes to job creation, including proximity to markets, proximity to public services, quality of infrastructure, educated workforce, etc. Economic development depends more on developing these amenities than just lowering taxes and tax rates.

From a quick look at this economic evidence, Walker’s claim about lowering taxes as the fastest way to stimulate job creation seems less valid. Milwaukee County Supervisors might want to keep this in mind when considering Walker's upcoming vetoes on the 2010 Budget.

John Kovari is a Ph.D. student in political science at the University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee and the 2008-2009 Norman N. Gill Fellow at the Public Policy Forum.

The Great Multi-Billion Dollar Highway Replacement Wheel Keeps On Turning

2009-11-19T20:41:00.002-06:00

The same cycle, over and over and over again - - whether it's the Marquette Interchange, or the Hoan Bridge, or at any given time, roadways and spans across the state and country.

And nowhere in the so-called long-term reconstruction $2+ billion plan will there be a rail corridor.

So there will be plenty of money left over to do the next concrete cycle.

The Wall Street Journal Editorial Board Is True To Form

2009-11-19T13:47:00.003-06:00

Their snotty editorial about Louis Butler underscores why no takes that part of the paper seriously.

Remember When An Improved Marquette Interchange Meant Safer?

2009-11-19T13:18:00.006-06:00

Oh, we remember.

That $810 million poured into the Marquette Interchange was barely about expansion - - despite eleven new lane miles and wider ramps - - and was hyped as all about safety.

But TMJ4 is reporting that in one key interchange connection, serious crashes seem to be overcoming the 'improvements.'

Details below - - and, by the way, none of this is news to frequent users of the big new traffic machine: Some ramps push through traffic from high elevations and into congestion that feels worse than before.

Clarke Concerned about Crashes on Marquette Interchange Ramp

By Charles Benson

Story Created: Nov 18, 2009

Story Updated: Nov 19, 2009

MILWAUKEE - It's accidents like the one that shut down the northbound I-43 ramp last month that has Sheriff David Clarke worried. There have been 68 accidents there in the last year.

Sheriff Clarke wants to know if the ramp's tight turn is to blame for the rising crash stats.

"Just as a motorist when I came around this I said 'This thing is pretty steep for even 40 miles an hour," says Clarke

Clarke asked the state to study the I-43 ramp and crash data to see if there is a problem.

State Transportation officials say there is nothing wrong with the ramp. It was built to federal highway safety standards. But Sheriff Clarke wonders if there is a design flaw.

Clarke adds, "In this day-in-age with the technology and engineering available I find it puzzling that the state would put that steep of a ramp inside an interchange."

The state and the sheriff agree speed is a problem. Clarke set up a speed checker until he can get some answers from state engineers.

"It's a new ramp so we want to properly diagnosed it so we know what intervention might be necessary to prevent someone from being seriously injured or killed."

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We Need The Hoan Bridge II: Smaller, Less Wasteful Of Land

2009-11-18T15:51:00.002-06:00

In an age of shrinking budgets, the notion that the overbuilt Hoan Bridge would be rebuilt as is...is foolish.

Smaller, less gaudy, is better for all parties, including taxpayers, and certainly for the City of Milwaukee where the bridge now sits as a monument to a bygone, excessive era.

County Process Flaws Stalled Park East Turnaround

2009-11-17T18:26:00.002-06:00

It has taken far too long for some Park East projects to move forward, in part because Milwaukee County does poorly when it comes to development.

The City, with a Department of Development, has a better track record and more expertise with which to work, but County officials wanted control over parcels they owned - - but didn't have the staff and tools to make things move smartly and quickly.

The result: inertia.

Scott Walker recently suggested starting a County agency to compete with the City's DCD.

That's duplicative and wasteful.

Ceding more control to the City would get projects in the ground faster, and thus on the tax rolls quicker, too.

Milwaukee Needs More Than Sweet Talk From UW System

2009-11-16T23:33:00.004-06:00

With the UW system deeply rooted in its hometown of Madison, the City of Milwaukee and its legislative delegation better get some assurances about making the big city on the big lake the center of UW system water research.

Scott Walker Kicks Gay People: Typical GOP Playbook Material

2009-11-16T21:05:00.003-06:00

Oh, it just wouldn't be a modern-day GOP camdidacy without kicking gay people around, right.
Er, Right?

Trib Explains Why Water System Leasing Is a Bad Idea

2009-11-16T17:37:00.002-06:00

In light of what Milwaukee Comptroller Wally Morics had proposed studying, this Chicago Trib piece is really worth a read.

If Barrett Runs...

2009-11-14T17:23:00.002-06:00

The basic question will be:

Do you want as Governor our fringe-dwelling Milwaukee County Executive, Scott Walker, who asked Sarah Palin for her support when she was here a week ago?

Doyle DNR Bill Veto Very Regrettable

2009-11-13T16:22:00.005-06:00

He sent signals that it was coming, so while Gov. Jim Doyle's veto of the bill returning the power to appoint the Department of Natural Resources Secretary to the DNR board - - and reversing a Cabinet-expanding power grab engineered by then-Gov. Tommy Thompson - - it is disappointing.

It sets up a collision with the Legislature and members of his own party just as Democrats are perhaps sorting out their 2010 gubernatorial candidate troubles - - Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett might be close to announcing - - in the wake of Doyle's sudden decision to step aside next year.

And it is a slap at much of Doyle's core constituency - - environmentalists, urbanists, conservationists - - who believe that a DNR moderately removed from gubernatorial direction would function more in the public interest and less driven by special interests.

It is painfully ironic that Doyle through his veto would validate the Machiavellian move to control the DNR from the Governor's office pulled off by a power-hungry, statist Thompson - - Doyle's nemesis as he chafed as Attorney General in Tommy's shadow all those years.

Tommy was the walking definition of bad, obstructive, Imperial governance personified for AG Doyle as Tommy grabbed the DNR Secretariat, killed the Public Intervenor in Doyle's offices and sent Consumer Protection off to the Ag Department.

All of which pleased the Wisconsin Manufacturers & Commerce, our state's champions of weak public resource regulation, and the most vocal supporter of keeping the DNR Secretary close to the Governor where the WMC could more easily and quietly make self-serving pitches.

Of course, a rare veto override is possible.

And would exacerbate tensions between the Governor, legislators and activists who have worked for years to restore some of the DNR's historic independence - - the reform bill kept intact a governor's ability to appoint the DNR board members - - and implement a change that Doyle supported when he was a candidate in 2002.

I don't see anything good in this action. It's a step backwards for grassroots democracy and public participation in the most basic of agencies.

Airline Jobs Win Was "Team Effort," Walker Not Mentioned

2009-11-13T06:29:00.003-06:00

Milwaukee County Executive Scott Walker's self-serving news release in the wake of Republic Airlines' job creation announcement earlier this week did not persuade the editorial writers at the Journal Sentinel to include the County Exec/gubernatorial candidate by name in their praise.
Maybe they remembered Walker's "lipstick-on-a-pig" dismissal of the Milwaukee 7 in 2005 - - reprised here.

Gov. Jim Doyle, whose business expansion tax credit plan helped seal the deal, was lauded in the editorial, and Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett, an early M-7 supporter and organization co-chair, got the last word.

Maybe actions do speak louder than words.

Study Finds Highway Lobbyists Steer Politicians Away From Maintenance Projects

2009-11-13T05:14:00.000-06:00

Hardly a surprise, and neither is the industry's denials.

Palin's Book Will Earn Her Money and Celebrity, But...

2009-11-12T22:15:00.002-06:00

Will she enjoy the opening her 'blame-everyone-else' book gives to David Letterman, Tina Fey and others who helped convince her to quit the Alaska Governorship?

New State Law Will Reduce Phosphorus In Wisconsin Lakes And Streams

2009-11-12T21:20:00.002-06:00

Here's how the Wisconsin Association of Lakes put it:

Nov 12, 2009 - Wisconsin Association of Lakes is pleased to announce that the State of Wisconsin today took another important step in controlling nutrient pollution in Wisconsin’s waters, as Governor Jim Doyle signed legislation prohibiting the use of phosphorus in dishwasher soaps.

We wanted to take a moment to say "thanks" for your support of us, which helped make this law possible.

The bill (AB 281) was passed by the Assembly in June and the Senate in October and is the second in a series of legislative initiatives to improve water quality.

Earlier this session, Wisconsin Association of Lakes and others led efforts in which the Legislature established a ban on the use of phosphorus compounds in lawn fertilizer and these efforts extended to the dish soap ban.

“This new law banning phosphorus in household dishwasher detergents is one more important step to protecting and restoring our lakes so they may continue to be enjoyed by all,” said Karen von Huene, Wisconsin Association of Lakes Executive Director. “We are proud as an organization to have again been at the forefront of this important issue and thank the legislature and Governor for understanding how crucial it is to the health of Wisconsin’s waters.”

A 1970’s Wisconsin law prohibited the sale or use of most cleaning products containing more than 0.5 percent phosphorus by weight, but made an exception allowing dishwashing detergents with as much as 8.7 percent phosphorus.

The new law eliminates that exception and limits dishwashing detergents to the same low phosphorus level permitted in other cleaning products beginning in June of 2010.

Our member lake organizations, individuals and corporations have long supported measures to remove phosphorus from the runoff flowing into our waters.

Nutrients like phosphorus are degrading 90% of Wisconsin’s inland lakes, causing smelly algae blooms, fish kills, and declining water quality.
Enactment of this new law enhances Wisconsin’s status as a national leader and model for other states in preventing phosphorus in runoff from contaminating its waters.

Whitefish Bay Wise To Invest In Schools, Despite Recession

2009-11-12T21:13:00.002-06:00

I meant to give props to Whitefish Bay voters who voted by referendum last week to pay a slightly higher property taxes to improve their schools.

The voters understood that investing in schools would help the Village remain attractive and continue to provide quality educations to the students.

I'm always baffled when I read about suburbs that turn down local school referenda even though the ability to absorb small annual tax increases is relatively easy, given the communities' demographics.

Michigan Pol Headed To Middle East Pitching Great Lakes Access

2009-11-12T20:55:00.004-06:00

But Gov. Doyle is headed there first, so let's hope he's got a better offer in his pocket touting Milwaukee and water-related business opportunities here than what Michigan's Lt. Governor has in mind.

John Michlig On Development And Other Developments In Franklin, Washington State And California

2009-11-12T17:03:00.005-06:00

Several threads tied together nicely by Franklin blogger John Michlig.

I like the NY Times citation about foreclosure rates being lower in communities served by transit.

Water Privatization Would Cost Consumers

2009-11-12T05:54:00.000-06:00

A study throws cold water on leasing the Milwaukee Water Works.

Hat tip, Riverkeeper.

Milwaukee County Board Again Threw Away $800,000

2009-11-11T21:47:00.007-06:00

Unnoticed during the financially-strapped Milwaukee County Board's 2010 budget deliberations was its routine transfer of a huge gob of local property tax dollars to pay an assigned share of the annual operating expenses of the Southeastern Wisconsin Regional Planning Commission (SEWRPC).

SEWRPC's non-elected 21 commissioners (three each from seven counties, regardless of population) bill the Counties annually and get their checks in the mail.

Milwaukee County, based on its share of the seven counties' equalized property value, always pays the most: in 2009, the bill hit more than $841,000 (see p. 16 of the SEWRPC budget).

The 2010 payment will be in that range, give or take.

Supervisors tangle each year over pet projects, programs, taxes, fees, parking rates, janitorial services, and long lists of people, places and things.

But they silently approve SEWRPC's check each and every time - - for the last 50 years.

And the City of Milwaukee, whose taxpayers front half that County contribution, have absolutely zero say in the matter, along with zero votes on the SEWRPC board.

For the County, it's taxation without challenge. For the City, taxation without representation.

A sum in the $800,000 range would pay the salaries and benefits of about 10-12 deputies, or police officers, or for other public safety, health, or development personnel in City Hall or the County Courthouse.

Or a small rebate to taxpayers in dollars saved, or put out for competitive bid, since SEWRPC is hardly the only organization that can provide the mapping or planning services that the County might say it absolutely needed.

Instead, that same sum is sent out to SEWRPC's headquarters in Pewaukee to support planners who are working hard to divert Lake Michigan water to the City of Waukesha, or to approve Interstate highway expansions in the out-counties or to otherwise busy themselves moving capital and jobs farther from the very people who each year pick up the largest piece of SEWRPC's operating budget.

The next time a Milwaukee County supervisor wails about the tough budget and the lack of money to spend on good things, ask that supervisor about the SEWRPC appropriation.

DNR Secretary Appointment Struggle Is Too Much About Power, Not Policy

2009-11-11T11:22:00.005-06:00

Word on the street is that Gov. Jim Doyle will veto the bill approved by both houses of the Legislature that would take the appointment of the Department of Natural Resources Secretary away from the Governor and return it to the DNR board.

Republican legislators removed the appointment from the board and gave it to Gov. Tommy Thompson some years ago so Thompson could directly control the agency, and especially its regulators who often bumped into Thompson's core business supporters.

As a first-term gubernatorial candidate, Doyle said he'd support reversing what Tommy and his legislative allies had done to the DNR.

Years of grassroots organizing - - bipartisan and non-partisan - - have united the hook-and-bullet-crowd and environmentalists in a successful legislative effort to put the appointing authority again into the board's hands.

Governors appoint the board members, with staggered terms, so the political control of the agency would be muted under the bill, but not ended.

Doyle has a decent record of environmental initiatives, with a vast expansion of the stewardship fund and its acquisition of lands for the public domain as his chief resource preservation legacy.

But environmentalism, per se, has never been one of his passions, and while that in itself is not a bad thing, it would be regrettable if he placed the preservation of gubernatorial prerogatives over public control of the state's natural resources.

I have worked for several elected chief executives and I understand that what they like, what they do and what motivates them is management and control, with hiring a key perk.

They are not legislators, and they are not advisers.

But that does not mean that holding on to power and handing it unchanged to the next office-holder is the end-all and be-all of political leadership.

Doyle's relationship with environmentalists and conservationists has sometimes been rocky - - look no further than his removal of his own DNR Secretary, Scott Hassett, after Hassett filed an enforcement action over water and air pollution caused by a UW coal-fired generating plant in downtown Madison.

That was a huge contradiction for the state and Hassett was right to begin to put an end to an eyesore and health hazard right in the heart of the Capitol city.

His sudden removal spoke volumes for the need to insulate the DNR secretary position and agency direction from some of the political stresses of the job.

I hope Doyle makes the right choice in this matter, and that there is not a further mess - - an override vote that will put many Democrats in opposition to their Governor.

And no doubt serving to amuse of some GOP politicos.

Will Private Sector Grants Materialize For UWM's Wauwatosa Engineering Complex?

2009-11-11T04:58:00.002-06:00

People keep telling me that UWM will have a hard time raising the millions needed to make the engineering and innovation center a reality on the County Grounds site.

No one is saying that the fundraising would be easier with a Milwaukee city site.

Just that pledges are not being announced for the Wauwatosa campus.

Coal Continues To Be A Problem Fuel

2009-11-11T00:36:00.001-06:00

Passing along a nicely-done op ed from the Journal Sentinel about the perils of burning coal to generate electricity.

The Most Amazing Scott Walker Flip-Flop Yet

2009-11-10T16:11:00.006-06:00

Remember Scott Walker's "lipstick on a pig" denigration of the M7, the then-budding Milwaukee regional economic development effort?

Well, now Scott loves the M7 big time, according to a statement from his office about Republic Airlines' expansion at Mitchell Airport.

No mention in the release that Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett, perhaps Walker's foe in the 2010 gubernatorial tilt, was an initial co-chair of the M7, or that Gov. Jim Doyle, allegedly so anti-business, put tax credits - - explanation here - - into the state budget that helped Republic expand in Milwaukee.

Ah - - why let the facts interfere with the spin?

Walker's release is self-serving, short and simple - - classic Scott.

Given his new love affair with the pig, expect Walker to "Shop The Pig" and show up when Piggly-Wiggly opens this fall in the old Lena's/Jewel on E. Capitol Dr.

Final Highway 164 Federal Court Ruling In Routine Reconsideration Delay

2009-11-10T13:15:00.002-06:00

For those of you keeping track, a significant US District Court decision several weeks ago - - full text in a link, here - - that cited federal and state agencies for improper methods that forced through the reconstruction of State Highway 164 is in something of a routine holding pattern.

There was a teleconference among the parties on October 29th, but not much took place because - - in lay terms - - the agency defendants have asked US District Court Judge Lynn Adelman to reconsider his preliminary findings.

And the plaintiffs - - The Highway 164 Coalition and Waukesha Environmental Action League - - objected.

This is all pretty much pro forma, I am told, so expect a final ruling in three weeks or so.

Then expect an appeal by the state and feds, because the initial ruling slapped them pretty hard and could end up requiring a lot of remedial work on the project, or in its yet-to-be-completed phases.

The road reconstruction and expansion runs from I-94 north through Waukesha County into more rural Washington County.

And has been the subject of extensive grassroots objections for years.

Another lay opinion: I could see the ruling requiring that other taxpayer-financed projects be planned and executed far differently with regard to public input, environmental impact studies and other public procedures and protections.

To which activists would say: "About time."