A Large Regular

2009-07-11T03:38:00.004-04:00

Matt Holliday's Diminishing HR Power

Back in April I predicted that:

I expect Matt Holliday to be a bust in the American League. I wish there was some place that would take a prop bet that at least one Rockies outfielder will have as many or more HR than Holliday this season.

I was right in my prediction so far (Brad Hawpe has 13 HR to Holliday's 8) but I didn't spot the trend. Now the trend is painfully obvious.

In 2007 Holliday hit a HR on average every 17.67 at bats. In 2008 it was a HR every 21.56 AB. This season it just one HR every 37.75 AB. If the progression continues then in 2010 we can expect to see Matt Holliday with Coco Crisp-like power numbers. I'm not even sure that even a return to the NL at this point will stem the tide for Holliday. We may have already seen his peak years.

2009-07-10T18:38:00.004-04:00

Pick of the Day

So the Mariners were up 3-0 going into the 9th inning and just then David Aardsma's fairy dust, deal with the devil or whatever faded away or maybe suddenly he just remembered "Hey, I'm David Aardsma and I'm really not that good" but the result was the Orioles scoring 5 runs in the top of the 9th to snatch my POTD victory out of my greedy little hands. It was like a kick in the gut. I couldn't even bring myself to make a POTD yesterday.

Tonight we are getting back on the horse and taking Tampa Bay at home (-$160) against the A's and the rookie Vin Mazzaro who has a 6.35 ERA in his last 3 starts.

POTD record 10-4 and plus a mythical $533

2009-07-10T08:56:00.003-04:00

Moneyball Back On?

It looks like Moneyball is not dead as a feature film. I enjoy Aaron Sorkin's writing of dialogue as much or more than the next guy but I still don't see Moneyball as worthy of being made into a picture.

I'm a big Michael Lewis fan and I'd suggest The New New Thing focusing in on the character of Jim Clark or a adaptation of The Blind Side as two Lewis books more worthy of being made into a film than Moneyball.

2009-07-09T22:52:00.001-04:00

Telly Savalas - If

Who love ya baby!

2009-07-09T08:20:00.004-04:00

The 10% Tripwire

Mark Penn argues that 10% unemployment is a psychological tripwire number that has "the potential to undermine the hard-won confidence enjoyed by the Obama administration." I agree that 10% unemployment would be both a real problem and a psychological watershed but I don't agree that President Obama has any "hard-won confidence" from the American people. More like squandered mis-placed enthusiasm. Penn then goes on to argue that if that 10% number became a reality - then President Obama could be forced into the following course of action:

First, the administration could pitch another stimulus package, in the form of direct, immediate tax rebates or some other, more tangible, measures, such as increased federal money to cash-starved states and localities. The Republicans are now on record in opposition to any stimulus. So they would be forced to vote against temporary tax cuts or money to the states, votes that could be problematic for them in the midterms.

Yeah another stimulus package because the first one worked so well. Second - Republicans would be right to be against throwing more money (that we don't have by the way) at the problem but not against tax cuts. Can Mark Penn be that thick?

2009-07-08T15:51:00.003-04:00

Pick of the Day

Today's pick of the day is the Mariners (-$120) vs Baltimore. The Orioles are 7-17 against the AL West, 6-16 in day games and just 1-11 in series finales on the road.

Last night the White Sox beat Cleveland to raise the POTD record to 10-3 and plus a mythical $653

2009-07-08T14:22:00.003-04:00

Nails Bankrupt

Morally and financially? Former Philadelphia Phillies outfielder Lenny Dykstra filed for Chapter 11 U.S. Bankruptcy Court protection in California on Tuesday.

I sort of feel bad about this - not because I like Dykstra - because I know he did this to get out of paying people who he owed money. This reminds me so much of Jack Clark and how he used bankruptcy to get out of paying a lot of "little people" who did work for him.

HT Digital Sports Daily

2009-07-08T12:12:00.002-04:00

You Learn Something New Every Day

Until today I had never heard of Tusculum College of Tennessee. Now I know that it is Tennessee's oldest college and that it's motto "Sit Lux" means "Let There Be Light" (although Fiat Lux seems a more common version of that phrase among college mottos).

According to Wikipedia the "original Tusculum was a city near Rome, Italy and home to Roman scholar and philosopher Cicero."

You learn something new every day.

2009-07-08T09:50:00.002-04:00

Cleveland Indians

Since being one game away from going to the World Series in the autumn of 2007 - the Cleveland Indians have gone a combined 114-135 (that's a winning percentage of .463). A record like that won't keep a manager in his job. Despite Mark Shapiro's statement of support - I'd guess that Eric Wedge will be out of a job well before the Indians report to Spring Training.

If there was any justice then Mark Shapiro should be joining Wedge on the unemployment line.

2009-07-07T18:24:00.003-04:00

Pick of the Day

Tonight's pick of the day (POTD) is the White Sox with Mark Buehrle starting against the Indians with Jeremy Sowers. Chicago is a -$153 favorite which is a much better price than the Red Sox -$260 (should be a lock with Beckett pitching).

Buehrle is in a 11-1 / 2.38 ERA stretch pitching at home. The White Sox are hot lately (7-3 in their last 10) and hot when Buehrle pitches (12-4 in his starts this year). Buehrle is also 6-0 pitching at night this season. Meanwhile Jeremy Sowers has never been able to beat the White Sox (0-5 with a 6.23 ERA in 6 career starts vs Chicago).

All signs point to the White Sox.

That doesn't mean that I'm over confident though. Baseball is still baseball and all signs pointed to a Colorado victory last night and while they did win - they needed some luck to pull out a 1-0 W.

POTD record - 9-3 and plus a mythical $553

2009-07-07T17:23:00.003-04:00

Andy Marte's Not Dead Yet

Andy Marte was considered a bust after failing to live up to his prospect reputation for the Indians but don't bury him yet. According to the Indians:

Yesterday, INF ANDY MARTE was named the International League’s Batter of the Week for the period of June 29-July 5 as he batted .458 w/ 2HR & 6RBI becoming the IL’s 1st back-to-back Player of the Week since May 2006 (Cole Hamels, WB)

Back to back International League batter of the week - not bad. Maybe he'll help out the Indians yet.

2009-07-07T09:56:00.002-04:00

The Persian Domino Effect?

Christopher Hitchens has a column worth the read. He asks:

Did the overthrow of the Saddam Hussein regime, and the subsequent holding of competitive elections in which many rival Iraqi Shiite parties took part, have any germinal influence on the astonishing events in Iran?

The answer seems to be absolutely yes. I wonder if George Bush will get credit from the historians for that?

2009-07-07T08:43:00.002-04:00

Red Sox Magic Number - 80

The Red Sox magic number now stands at 80. That happens to be the number worn by all-time Patriots great Troy Brown.

Troy Brown is from South Carolina just like soon to be enshrined Hall of Famer Jim Rice. Troy Brown is fast like Jacoby Ellsbury. Troy Brown was a small man who excelled at a big man's sport just like Dustin Pedroia. Troy Brown led by quiet example like Jon Lester. Troy Brown was an all-time leader in some franchise records and fan favorite but just not of Hall of Fame caliber just like Tim Wakefield.

The Red Sox are very much like Troy Brown. Troy Brown wore number 80.

2009-07-06T18:25:00.003-04:00

Pick of the Day

Today's pick of the day (POTD) is the Rockies over the Nationals. The price is high (Rockies -$200) but I feel pretty good about this one. Jason Marquis is starting for the Rox and Washington has struggled against Colorado.

POTD record - 8-3 and plus a mythical $453

2009-07-06T08:39:00.003-04:00

The New New Thing

I'm a fan of Michael Lewis and when I had the chance to pick up his 2000 book The New New Thing: A Silicon Valley Story I jumped at it.

Lewis' modus operandi is to have a subject and illustrate that subject through the lens of two main characters while bouncing between these characters with chapters in between discussing examples of how the subject hand is illustrated by various people. In Moneyball the subject was statistics and how they were changing baseball. The two main characters were Billy Beane and Bill James. Players like Chad Bradford and Kevin Youkilis were used to illustrate the main point of the book.

In The New New Thing one main character is obviously Jim Clark but the second main character is not so obviously Jim Clark's new sailboat the Hyperion. Silicon Valley big shots and start-ups are used to illustrate the main point of the book of how the new, new thing had created the Internet IPO boom and changed the way business is done in the modern day.

It was interesting to look back at the Internet boom of the 90's through the lens of Jim Clark - a giant of an American Industrialist who does not get his proper recognition. All the time spent discussing the new state of the art sailboat the Hyperion - not so interesting. I recommend this book but because Lewis has a skill in telling a story but it wasn't his best work.

2009-07-06T07:54:00.004-04:00

Baseball Flotsam and Jetsam

Miscellaneous baseball thoughts and observations.

If Tampa Bay's Carlos Pena is not on the All-Star team - he'll be the first player leading the AL in HR not to make the roster since Detroit's Mickey Tettleton in 1993... More than half of Washington Nationals' Adam Dunn's plate appearances do not involve a member of the other team (other than the pitcher and catcher). Close to 51% of Dunn's PA result in either a walk, a strikeout or a HR.... The Tampa Bay Rays will send 4 players to the All-Star game with all of them being under 30-years old. Carl Crawford, Evan Longoria, Jason Bartlett and Ben Zobrist are all under 30-years old. Carl Crawford of the Rays won’t be 28 until August 5th. He’s been in the league so long that you forget that he’s still that young.... There's been lots of sturm and drang about steroids users Manny Ramirez and Alex Rodriguez not making the All-Star team but what about Ryan Franklin of the Cardinals? He was suspended in 2005 for steroids use and he was named in the Mitchell Report. Has he passed some sort of probation period or do people just care about steroids users who hit home runs?

2009-07-05T22:39:00.005-04:00

Sarah Palin and the Tea Party

Over at Instapundit I saw lots of speculation about Sarah Palin having resigned to possibly found a third party to confront the Democrats and Republicans in the 2010 and 2012 elections. The idea is that Sarah Palin may form a formalized Tea Party.

It should be remembered that the Republican Party was once a third party itself. When it started in 1854 the main issue was slavery but the party was also interested in the well-being of small business and the middle class. The issues that this new Republican Party were attractive to many voters from both of the existing political parties and by 1860 this new third party had elected Abraham Lincoln as President.

The Tea Party would have a single main issue - over-taxation and an out of control government bureaucracy with waste the rule and not the exception. This issue is appealing to members of both parties (not just Republicans). The abuse Palin would receive at the hands of the MSM wouldn't even be worse than the press that Abraham Lincoln received from the Democratic leaning press of his day.

Could the new Tea Party do in half the time what it took the Republicans 6 years to accomplish a century and a half ago? Why not? Back in 1854 I bet not many thought the new Republican Party would have success defeating the mighty Whig Party who had just elected 3 out of the previous 4 Presidents of the United States. But they did. Why not Sarah Palin and a Tea Party?

2009-07-05T16:17:00.004-04:00

Thoughts on the NL All-Star Roster

You can find the full NL roster here.

Some thoughts on the NL selections. You could argue that Benjie Molina is having a better season than his brother Yadier but that's a coin flip at best and what the heck - they are keeping it in the family. Orlando Hudson started off hot but has really cooled off. He's probably getting the Tim Wakefield good guy slot.

Was Cincinnati's Francisco Cordero more deserving than teammate Johnny Cueto or did Cuerto get stuck because of the arbitrary ratio of starters to closers? Ryan Franklin's not one of the 10 best pitchers in the NL. Johan Santana made the team based upon past performance but adding him or Ryan Franklin probably cost Milwaukee's Yovani Gallardo a spot on the roster.

An argument could be made that Mark Reynolds and Pablo Sandoval are more deserving than Ryan Zimmerman but Zimmerman is the Nationals sole representative and all three players are very close in value. There some slim pickens for outfield in the NL - isn't there? You could argue Matt Kemp over Hunter Pence but that just points out how thin the position is. That will have to boost Matt Holliday's trade value.

I'm still amused at the fact that the Cubs with their $135 million payroll have to use the "every team gets a representative" rule to get Ted Lilly on the roster.

2009-07-05T15:46:00.001-04:00

Thoughts on the AL All-Star Team

You can find the full roster here.

In my opinion - Ian Kinsler definitely got jobbed by the selections. He should be the starting 2nd baseman. I'm a Red Sox fan but Dustin Pedroia doesn't deserve it this year. Kinsler was more deserving than his teammate Michael Young but Young got the nod probably because the team needed another 3rd baseman (which in turn jobbed Chone Figgins of the Angels).

Does Josh Hamilton deserve the starting position given all the time he missed? Did Curtis Granderson get the nod over teammate Miguel Cabrera because he was more likable? Or because the team had too many 1st basemen? There is also no way Granderson should have made the team over Adam Lind. Hamilton should use his health as an excuse to let either Kinsler or Lind take his spot.

Excellent arguments could also be made for Kevin Millwood of the Rangers (where would they be without him this season) and Russell Branyan of the Mariners.

2009-07-05T11:24:00.006-04:00

Pick of the Day

Today's pick of the day (POTD) is the Cardinals with Chris Carpenter against the Reds with Bronson Arroyo. The Cards are a -$141 favorite and I'm counting on Chris Carpenter returning to his winning ways and Bronson Arroyo sticking to his recent slump.

I made two mistakes yesterday. First I should have made the over (61.5 hot dogs) at Nathan's Hot Dog Eating contest my POTD. Going over was a lock (the winner ate 68 hot dogs). Second my friend Pete does what he calls a "reverse parlay" where he picks four teams and then also bets the other sides in a second parlay because in his experience he's been all or nothing too many times. Yesterday I did a 4 team parlay and came up with nothing. I had Boston, Atlanta, the Dodgers and the Blue Jays. All four lost. If I did Pete's reverse parlay as insurance - I'd be sitting pretty today.

POTD record - 7-3 and plus a mythical $353

2009-07-05T09:52:00.005-04:00

Flotsam and Jetsam

Miscellaneous thoughts and observations.

I love these "Hitler in the bunker" spoofs. My favorite was the Terrell Owens one. In the newest one Hitler learns of Michael Jackson's death. Hitler loved Michale Jackson as much as the next Nazi... Pitcher Dan Haren has the 4th best batting average on the Diamondbacks (3rd best if you kick out Alex Romero who has only played 6 games). It should come as no surprise then that the the Diamondbacks have the 2nd worst team batting average in the NL... Drew Bledsoe is opening his own winery. I am so jealous. I would love to own my own vineyard and winery. I'll be buying a couple of bottles of Doubleback when they become available... Do the Nationals have the Braves number? Last season the Nationals were 12-6 against the Braves including a 7-2 mark at Nationals Park. This season the Braves are 5-3 against Washington but all 3 of the Nationals wins have come at Nationals Park. Even if I knew those numbers before now - I still would have picked Tommy Hanson and the Braves yesterday as my POTD (of course if I knew the final score I would have gone the other way)...

2009-07-04T11:44:00.002-04:00

Pick of the Day

Today's pick of the day (POTD) is Atlanta (-$112) over Washington. The Nationals are at home and they have the skillful John Lannan taking the hill but they're still the Nationals. The Braves have a chance to get to .500 for the season, they are riding a winning streak and they have rookie phenom Tommy Hanson starting. Plus they're playing the National.

There was no POTD yesterday as instead I ate cookout food, drank beer and watched fireworks.

POTD record - 7-2 and plus a mythical $465

2009-07-04T09:47:00.004-04:00

4th of July Flotsam and Jetsam

Miscellaneous thoughts and observations on this 4th of July.

The over / under for the number of hot dog consumed by the winner of Nathan's Hot Dog Eating contest (according to Bodog) is 61.5 hot dogs. The world record is 66. I took the over because I like rooting for gluttony... For the record - I'm not a fan of the Celtics trying to sign Rasheed Wallace and I'm disgusted by the way they've treated Leon Powe... On this date in 1802 - the United States Military Academy at West Point was opened... I really don't know how to comment on this without offending someone so without comment here's Kush Support (I do have to note that the name of the product sounds like a non-profit in support of Afghan rebels)... Today also marks the 373rd anniversary of the founding of Providence, Rhode Island...

2009-07-04T09:05:00.005-04:00

Red Sox Magic Number - 82

The Red Sox magic number now stands at 82. I blew it. I had a window between Wednesday night and Thursday when the Yankees lost to the Mariners where the magic number was 83 and I was going to compare this Red Sox team to Patriots receiver Wes Welker who wears number 83.

I was going to point out that he's Texan like Josh Beckett. That he's fast like Jacoby Ellsbury. That he's a small man excelling at a big man sport like Dustin Pedroia. That he leads by quiet example like Jon Lester and Tim Wakefield. I was going to do a bunch of those comparisons. Now the magic number is 82 - and I don't even think there's even a player on the current Patriots roster who wears number 82.

The comparison idea has gone down like a lead balloon. Oh yeah - by the way - the atomic number of lead is 82.

2009-07-04T09:00:00.000-04:00

Top 5 - Memorable Things That Happened on a July 4th

Happy 4th of July. Here are the top 5 things that happened in US history on the 4th of July. Don't forget that July is American Beer Month.

1. 1776 Colonies declare independence
2. 1826 Presidents, patriots, rivals and friends John Adams and Thomas Jefferson both die on the same day
3. 1863 The surrender of Vicksurg to General Grant (the town of Vicksburg would not celebrate the Fourth of July for 81 years)
4. 1804 Lewis and Clark celebrate first 4th of July west of the Mississippi
5. 1939 Lou Gehrig gives his "luckiest man alive" speech at Yankee Stadium