odds on football

2007-09-18T17:16:00.000-07:00

Odds on football
Definition: The likelihood of an outcome occurring, stated in number form. The "straight up" outcome is typically the basis of the wager, without regard to a point spread. Odds are often stated as a moneyline.Examples: Jackson got good odds at a -500 money line on Mike Tyson to win the fight; but he likes his 10 to 1 odds on the Pats to win the Super Bowl even better.
Reading and Understanding Odds
There are three major odds formats used for calculating the payout of a sports wager: american, decimal, and fractional.
The most common odds format used in the US is american. A 100 base system is used for calculate the payout of american odds. Negative numbers list the amount required to risk in order to win 100. Positive numbers list the amount won when risking 100.
Example: -110 means you must risk 110 to win 100. +120 means when you risk 100 you will win 120.
The second major odds format is decimal odds, also known as European odds. To calculate the payout of decimal odds simply multiply the amount risked by the decimal number and subtract the amount risked.
Example: To calculate the payout of risking 100 at odds listed at 1.9091 perform the following mathematical calculations: multiply 100 by 1.9091 (100 * 1.9091); subtract 100 from the result (190.91 - 100); final result equals 90.91.
The third major odds format is fractional odds, also known as British or UK odds. These fractional odds are fractions such as 10/11. To calculate the payout of fractional odds simply multiply the numerator (top number top) by the amount risked and then divide the result by the denominator (bottom number) of the fraction.
Example: To calculate the payout of risking 100 at odds listed at 10/11 perform the following mathematical calculations: multiply 100 by 10 (100 * 10); divide the result by 11 (1000 / 11); final result equals 90.91.
To calculate the payout for odds in american, decimal, or fractional formats use the payout calculator. To convert between american, decimal, or fractional odds formats use the odds converter.
Once you are able to read odds you must understand what they mean to you, and it's more than how to calculate the payout.
Understanding the odds you're playing into is a key component to making a profit in the long term. As an example, the break even percentage for the standard odds listed at -110 is 52.38%. The sportsbook touts spreads and totals as 50% propositions. At standard odds, however, the break even percentage is 52.38%.
As you can see it would make no sense to make a wager on a play that you feel has a 50% chance of winning if it requires you to win at least 52.38% of your wagers to break even.
To get the break even percentage for odds other than the standard -110 use the money line converter.
Basic Sports Handicapping Techniques
The most common sports handicapping the new sports bettor uses is to use trends. The problem with using trends is that they are not statistically significant. Knowing that a team is 4-0 in a given situation or a team is 7-2 in a given situation does not make it a good reason to risk money on a given side or total.
Sports handicapping is tough work. There is no special mathematical formula or trend that will guarantee you a long term profit.
At a basic level, a mathematical prediction should be used to get an idea where the teams in a given game matchup. A mathematical prediction should be the foundation for any solid handicapping regime.
A mathematical prediction alone, however, will only get you into trouble. Statistical models are not in charge of playing the game in question. You must take into account the current psychological and physiological conditions that affect the game, such as scheduling and the current mental health of the team.
Pitfalls To Avoid
Faulty money management is arguably the number one reason why new sports bettors fail to win money. A solid money management system is necessary to win money over the long haul. For more help in this area read the money management guide.
Another trap sports bettors fall into are parlays and teasers. The problem with parlays and teasers is that, in most cases, you a paying a higher price for the parlay or teaser than you are over straight wagers. Parlays and teasers can offer some value. Most sports handicappers, however, do not have the patience or time to properly find value with these wagers. It is best to stay away from them unless you are in the minority that can properly use these wagers.
One final pitfall is the use of second half wagers. The biggest problem with these wagers is the use of emotion by the sports bettor. The bettor must understand that second half adjustments are a big part of every game, and that what happens in the first half does not mean the trend will continue in the second half.

Last episode we looked at a simple technique for making bets based on handicapping skill. This week we look at a way to get a numerical edge.
ASSUMPTIONS: To make this work you'll need several outs–the more the better. You should be able to bet at many of these places online, or at least see up-to-date odds online. Again you'll need a bankroll, separate from last episode's, this time divided into about 30 units. Start with 4-5 units at each shop and you may have to withdraw/reload from certain shops as the season progresses.
METHOD: This method is called "middling", because when a game lands in the "middle" of your two bets, you hit the jackpot.
****NOTE - To really make middling football, (or hoops) a worthwhile proposition, it is essential that you take advantage of both reduced juice AND free half points. The value of both cannot be underestimated. Using both will virtually guarantee a profit. Three books that are a MUST if you are going to middle are:
When forced to choose by bankroll limitations, choose NFL plays over college plays.
NFL: (In order of preference)
1) Any time you can play a favored team at -2.5 or less and simultaneously play the underdog in the same game at +3.5 or more at a different shop, place 2 units on each team in that way. Example: If it's Cowboys vs. Redskins and WWTS has the Cowboys -2.5 and Carib has the Cowboys at -3.5, put two units on the Cowboys -2.5 at WWTS and 2 units on the Redskins +3.5 at Carib. Alas, these days this scenario is pretty rare. When it does occur, sacrifice a Virgin in honor of the gods. Well, at least sacrifice a dash of virgin olive oil for the top of your pizza in celebration.
2) Any time you can play a favored team at -6.5 or less and simultaneously play the underdog in the same game at +7.5 or more at a different shop, place 1 unit on each team in that way.
3) Anytime you can play the favorite at -3 and the dog at +3.5 or more, or you can play the dog at +3 and the favorite at -2.5 or less, place one unit on each team in this way.
4) Any time you can simultaneously get a two or more point differential in lines from two different shops, put one unit at each shop to take advantage of this. Example: If it's Patriots vs. Jets, and Victor Chandler has the Patriots -4 and Canbet has the Patriots -6, play one unit on the Patriots at -4 at VC and one unit on the Jets +6 at Canbet. [This will occur very rarely, unless you have local outs at your disposal. Again we're not advocating breaking any laws, but IF you choose to use local outs you'll make more plays.]
COLLEGE: (by preference)
1) Anytime you can get a 2.5 point differential on a game where the line is less than 20 points, play one unit on each team. Example: Betmaker has Notre Dame -15 vs. Kansas, and a local guy has Notre Dame -18. Play Notre Dame -15 at Betmaker and Kansas +18 locally.
2) Anytime you can get a 3.5 point differential on a game where the line is more than 20 but less than 35 points, play one unit on each team. Example: Olympic has UCLA -22 vs. Air Force, and Skybook has UCLA -25.5. Put one unit on UCLA -22 at Olympic and one unit on Air Force +25.5 at Skybook.
"That's All, Folks!"
OK, OK, a little Q & A:
Q: "How can I make money by betting on both teams against myself?"
A: Consider the NFL 1) scenario above. OK, if the Cowboys win by more than 3, you win the Cowboys bet, lose the Redskins bet, and overall lose the juice on the losing Redskins bet. If the Redskins win or lose by 2 or less you win the Redskins bet, lose the Cowboys bet, and net out to losing the juice on the Cowboys bet. But if the Cowboys win by exactly 3 points, BOTH your bets win. Minimal risk (one bet's juice) for a big potential reward (two winning bets). The other scenarios work the same way, but are less profitable over the long haul than middling an NFL game around the number 3. One game in every seven in the NFL is decided by exactly 3 points, and NFL lines tend to me more accurate as forecasts of total scores than do college lines, so that's why the first NFL scenario above is the one I load up on, 2 units per side.
Q: "So games land on the magic number often enough to turn a profit?"
A: Yup.
Q: "Is there any way I can further minimize my risks in pursuit of profit?"
A: Likely. Some offshore books are offering reduced juice from the typical 10% this football season. Assume the same scenario above, and say you're playing $50 units. 2 units on each side, including the juice, is traditionally $110 on each side. If the game does NOT land on a Dallas win by 3, you lose $10 (One bet turns a $100 profit; the other a $110 loss). When both bets win you pocket a cool $200. So you must win one bet in every 21 placed to break even.
Now suppose you just have to lay between $100 to $105 on a $100 bet because you're playing at places with no-juice-on-Fridays or reduced juice. If you're laying $105 on each side, when the game does not land on Cowboys by 3, you lose $5. Again, when you win you win $200. Now you must win only one bet for every 41 placed to break even.
Suppose, insanity of insanity, you're getting down with NO juice. You have no risk at all. When the Cowboys win by exactly 3, you cash both bets; when they don't, you just move money from one bookie to the other.
Q: "Speaking of insanity, I'm working really hard and finding line discrepancies. I can bet the whole bankroll each week. Am I insane?"
A: No you're not. If you bet 20 units on middles, the most you'll lose (i.e. if no bet comes in at all on the number) is one unit in juice–the 10% juice on the ten units of losing bets. TRY to bet the whole roll every week.
Q: "I've been at this a couple of weeks and haven't hit any middles. I'm 0-for-15 or 0-for-20 or something. Should I quit?"
A: If you're going to do this, commit to doing it for the long term. Suppose a casino offered you a game where you could bet $1 and roll a fair die. If you rolled anything but a snake-eye, you lost your dollar, but if you rolled a snake-eye, you'd get a return of $8. You'd be in, right? Even if you rolled no snake-eye for 10, 12 rolls, you'd keep at it, right? This works along the same principles.
Q: "Actually, I'm finding it hard to spot big differentials at the online sportsbooks. Is this unusual?"
A: Unfortunately, no. The advent of the Don Best Screen has made it more difficult for players to find big differentials in lines. Some books even move their lines "just because other books are moving them". This is where selecting a wide range of outs can help. Pick different shops on different continents, some thousands of miles away, maybe one or two in the city in which you live (assuming, of course, you live somewhere where it's legal....). You really want a variety of numbers to maximize your chances of getting different point spreads from different places. Play the differential that's the most advantageous.
Q: "Is this called ‘scalping'?"
A: Most people call it "middling" when you apply this technique to point spread bets. Scalping refers to money line bets in sports like baseball, where the astute bettor bets different teams in the same game at different shops to try to guarantee himself a small profit no matter who wins. In middling, you risk a small amount of juice each time to go hunting for the big tuna. (That's profit, not Parcells...)
Q: "This could be done with totals too, right?"
A: Yes, but I don't talk about it because I haven't figured out how to do it yet. I don't know what the thresholds are for differentials as to when there's value in middling a total. 1.5 points difference? 3 points? 4? I don't know. There is no magic total number like the number of -3 for NFL sides (although some people swear by the number 37..."play both sides of 37"...maybe they're on to something).
Q: "Somebody who refined their middling technique and played for huge stakes, could they make a living at it?"
A: Some do, some do. It's harder to do in the NFL because there are comparatively few games each season, but many people do it by middling college football, and pro and college hoops, and by scalping baseball.
Q: "This has nothing to do with evaluating teams and picking winners. It's like being a bottom-feeder. Is there something shameful in it?"
A: It's a shame more people don't try to feed off it.
ODDS & SODS NOTE - To really make middling football, (or hoops) a worthwhile proposition, it is essential that you take advantage of both reduced juice AND free half points. The value of both cannot be underestimated. Using both will virtually guarantee a profit.

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2006-11-13T10:51:00.000-08:00

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