BCS Guru

Bowl Extravaganza

2009-12-18T11:43:00.000-08:00

Call the Guru a glutton for punishment.

Two years ago, I handicapped all 32 bowl games ... and let's just say I was as successful as the French army was in May 1940. It was so bad that I didn't even bother tallying the damage.

But since time heals all wounds, I'm diving into the muddled waters of bowl predictions again. So here are my picks, along with a nugget or two, on the 34 bowl games this season, listed in chronological order:

New Mexico - Fresno State over Wyoming.

St. Petersburg - I thought Rutgers was a fraud all season long. Not changing that view here, going with Central Florida.

New Orleans - Middle Tennessee over Southern Miss.

Las Vegas - Oregon State deserves so much better than this. Take the Beavers over BYU.

Poinsettia - Utah gets one back for the Mountain West, over Jahvid Best-less Cal.

Hawaii - SMU's June Jones makes a triumphant return to the islands, but Nevada wins over his Mustangs.

Little Caesars - Marshall over Ohio.

Meineke Car Care - Pitt loses three in a row to end the season, this one goes to North Carolina.

Emerald - Will USC get up for this game? Barely, but that's enough to beat Boston College.

Music City - Clemson over Kentucky.

Independence - Texas A&M, riding the hot arm of Jerrod Johnson, gets enough offense to beat Georgia.

EagleBank - UCLA needed Army to lose to get a bowl bid, and makes the most of it by beating Temple.

Champs Sports - Miami has too much speed for plodding Wisconsin, another vastly overrated team from the Big Ten/11 soon to be 12.

Humanitarian - Idaho over Bowling Green.

Holiday - This could've been the Stoops Bowl, but Bob couldn't make it. So Mike's Arizona takes it out on Nebraska.

Armed Forces - Houston's high-octane offense grounds Air Force.

Sun - The most interesting non-BCS bowl game in the lot. Stanford in a tight one, thanks to over 200 rushing yards by Toby Gerhart, over Oklahoma.

Texas - Navy votes nay on Missouri going to the Big Ten/11 soon to be 12.

Insight - Minnesota over Iowa State.

Chick-fil-A - Without hostesses as a distraction, Tennessee still comes up short against Virginia Tech.

Outback - Northwestern has been sneaky good this year. The Wildcats surprise Auburn.

Capital One - JoePa's tam has not beaten anybody of substance this season. Penn State isn't about to start now against LSU.

Gator - In Bobby Bowden's farewell, featuring the two Division I-A teams he coached, West Virginia spoils it by denying him a final victory at Florida State.

Rose - Oregon has just too much speed for Ohio State.

Sugar - Think Florida isn't going to show up to play this game? You must not have heard of this guy named Tim Tebow. He's not going to lose his final college game to Cincinnati.

International - In turmoil, South Florida still beats Northern Illinois.

PapaJohns.com - South Carolina over UConn.

Cotton - In the first Cotton Bowl played at Cowboys Stadium, Ole Miss beats Oklahoma State as Jerry Jones gets ready to make a pitch to be part of the BCS.

Liberty - Ryan Mallett has a field day as Arkansas routs East Carolina.

Alamo - Texas Tech over Michigan State.

Fiesta - In the "People's Championship," viewed by the smallest TV audience in BCS history, TCU gets by Boise State to finish an undefeated season.

Orange - Georgia Tech runs wild against a perplexed Iowa team.

GMAC - Troy over Cincinnati's farm school, er, Central Michigan.

BCS National Championship - Alabama returns to the top of college football world, routs Texas to win its first national title since 1992.

Toby Gerhart for Heisman

2009-12-09T07:27:00.000-08:00

I'm not a Heisman voter and have no intention to ever become one. For what it's worth, I think it is possibly the most overrated trophy in all of sports.

But I've been asked to cast a blogger vote - similar to my weekly ballots in the BlogPoll - for the Heisman this year by the Blue Work Horse. So I'll bite. And there is actually a reason for me to care this year. I feel very strongly that Stanford's Toby Gerhart should win the Heisman.

Let's get this first part out of the way. Gerhart went to Norco High School, which happens to be my alma mater (Class of '87). And his daddy is the Cougars' football coach. Yes, I have to admit, it'd be kind of cool.

But Gerhart deserves the trophy, and my admiration, for much more than that. If you're still clinging to the myth of the "student-athlete" in big-time college sports, then he's your Atlas. Besides gashing Oregon and USC on the field, he also carries a mean GPA - not in kinesiology or general studies - but a 3.25 in management science and engineering. At Stanford, where its motto is Die Luft der Freiheit weht.

If you want numbers, Gerhart has those, too. He leads the nation in rushing yards (1,736) and touchdowns (26), and did that against stout competition. In Stanford's five games against the nation's top 40 rush defenses, he averaged 140 yards and three touchdowns per game. (In contrast, Alabama's Mark Ingram played just one game - Florida - against a top 40 rush defense team.)

But will he become the first Heisman winner from Stanford since Jim Plunkett (1970) or the first non-USC player from west of the Rockies since Ty Detmer (1990)? Don't count on it. The SEC media machine has all but locked it up for Ingram after his 30-yard performance against Auburn was quickly erased from the voters' memory (think Minority Report).

So in a bit of exercise in futility, here's my Heisman ballot:

No. 1 Toby Gerhart (RB, Stanford) - Without him, Stanford wouldn't be tied for second in the Pac-10 and playing in the Sun Bowl. He had 10 100-yard games and 3 200-yard games. And he's carrying 20 units and on course to graduate in December. He's a beast.

No. 2 Jeremiah Masoli (QB, Oregon) - The Ducks bounced back from the opening game disaster to win the conference, thanks to Masoli's brilliant consistency. Over 2,000 yard passing, 650 yards rushing and 27 touchdowns.

No. 3 Ndamukong Suh (DT, Nebraska) - Probably the most dominant interior defensive lineman in a generation. Who knows what Nebraska could've gone if it just had a little bit of offense.

Honorable mention - Mark Ingram (RB, Alabama), Case Keenum (QB, Houston).

Boise Is In, But BCS Still Flawed

2009-12-08T12:14:00.000-08:00

The following is a guest column written by the co-founder of Playoff PAC. This article also appeared in RealClearSports.

By Matthew Sanderson

The college football world received good news Sunday night. Deserving and undefeated teams from Boise State and TCU received bowl invitations from the Bowl Championship Series. This will be the first post-season in BCS history that two teams from the five non-automatic qualifying conferences will receive BCS bowl berths in the same year. TCU automatically qualified for the invitation under BCS rules, while Boise State received an "at-large" invitation - a first for a "non-AQ" conference team.

These bowl invitations are a positive development, to be sure. But the BCS' new PR mercenaries, led by former Bush White House Press Secretary Ari Fleischer, are certain to over-inflate their importance. Even before yesterday's selection, they've compared the BCS to apple pie, motherhood, and the Macy's Thanksgiving Day Parade. Wonder what they'll come up with now.

BCS officials will undoubtedly claim that the Broncos' bid, in particular, is proof positive that the door of opportunity is wide open to "non-AQ" schools under the BCS system. We need only look at the circumstances surrounding Boise State's invitation, though, to realize this is not true.

For the BCS to even consider extending this at-large berth, Boise State had to run up two consecutive undefeated regular seasons and manhandle this year's Pac-10 champion, the Oregon Ducks, along the way.

Yet Boise State still would not have received an invitation if any of the "Big Six" conference teams had a remotely credible claim to a big-time bowl. Because BCS rules bar any single conference from garnering more than one at-large bid and because SEC and Big Ten teams had already locked in the first two at-large spots, Boise State's competition for the final at-large BCS berth came from the ACC, Big 12, Big East, and Pac-10. Teams from those conferences - Oklahoma State, USC, Pittsburgh, Clemson, and others - were in the driver's seat but somehow couldn't close out the season successfully.

This left an enormous rankings gap of .2769 points between Boise State and the next eligible team, three-loss Virginia Tech. Selecting the three-loss Hokies over undefeated Boise State would have ignited the greatest uproar in BCS history and destroyed any remaining shreds of legitimacy. The BCS didn't select Boise State because they've turned over a new leaf. They begrudgingly extended the at-large invite because they had a gun to their head.

And after all that, the BCS issued a tainted invitation by making Boise State and fellow "non-AQ" team TCU face off against each other in the Tostitos Fiesta Bowl on Jan. 4. One sportswriter is calling this "Separate But Equal Bowl" because it denies both teams an opportunity to prove their mettle against "Big Six" conference teams and allows the BCS to continue to rationalize its caste system by claiming a disparity in quality of play.

In addition, the BCS did nothing to address the system's greatest defects by selecting Boise State for an at-large spot. For example, the ACC will receive approximately $18.3 million from the BCS this post-season. For accomplishing the same feat - placing one team in a BCS bowl - the Mountain West Conference must divide $9.6 million among its fellow five "non-AQ" conferences. Forcing these teams to live off of table scraps is not good for college football's long-term health. Unfortunately, Boise State's historic at-large berth doesn't mean the BCS has changed its anti-competitive revenue distribution system.

Boise State's momentary inclusion also does not mean the BCS is suddenly a great way to choose a champion. Undefeated Cincinnati beat three teams ranked in the final AP Top 25 poll, while Texas defeated only two. Why exactly, then, is Texas "in" and Cincinnati "out" when the teams played in conferences of similar strength? Boise State and TCU have gripes similar to Cincinnati. Something is fundamentally wrong with a system that pointlessly rations championship opportunities and leaves three undefeated teams at home to watch the title game. The lesser BCS bowls are a poor consolation prize, even if they are a step up from the norm for these teams.

A single at-large bid for a "non-AQ" team cannot erase 11 years of scandal and controversy or cover up the system's inherent flaws. The status quo's warts remain. We need real reform in college football. Let's stop running this game needlessly on two cylinders and start a playoff.

======================
Matthew Sanderson is a co-founder of Playoff PAC (www.PlayoffPAC.com) and an attorney at Caplin & Drysdale, Chartered in Washington, D.C. He served as Campaign Finance Counsel to John McCain 2008, Senator John McCain's presidential campaign committee. {These view are his own.}

The Guru's BlogPoll Ballot (Week 14)

2009-12-07T07:46:00.000-08:00

The Guru's final regular season BlogPoll ballot, with comments below:

Rank	Team	Delta

1	Alabama	1
2	TCU	1
3	Boise State	2
4	Texas
5	Cincinnati	1
6	Florida	3
7	Oregon
8	Ohio State
9	Iowa
10	Georgia Tech	2
11	Penn State	1
12	Brigham Young	1
13	Virginia Tech	5
14	LSU	1
15	Miami (Florida)	4
16	Utah	4
17	West Virginia	6
18	Pittsburgh	5
19	Wisconsin
20	Oklahoma State	4
21	Arizona
22	Oregon State	5
23	Stanford
24	Nebraska	2
25	Central Michigan
Last week's ballot

Dropped Out: Houston (#14), USC (#16), California (#21).

* Alabama was impressive in the SEC championship victory over Florida, but it must be viewed with at least this much skepticism: The Gators may just be grossly overrated. They have played just one team ranked in the top 25 all season, and I won't continue to belabor the point about their nonconference schedule.

* That said, Alabama and TCU are clearly the two best teams in the country. TCU is the only team ranked in the top 10 in both total offense (No. 4) and total defense (No. 1). Alabama has beaten three teams ranked in the top 25, and has played the toughest schedule among the unbeatens. These two teams really should've been playing for the national championship.

* Let's allow the resumes tell the story:

Alabama (13-0)- Beat No. 6 Florida, No. 13 Virginia Tech, No. 14 LSU.
TCU (12-0)- Beat No. 12 BYU, No. 16 Utah.
Boise State (13-0)- Beat No. 7 Oregon.
Texas (13-0)- Beat No. 20 Oklahoma State, No. 24 Nebraska.
Cincinnati (12-0)- Beat No. 17 West Virginia, No. 18 Pittsburgh, No. 22 Oregon State.
Florida (12-1)- Beat No. 14 LSU. Lost to No. 1 Alabama.
Oregon (10-2)- Beat No. 16 Utah, No. 21 Arizona, No. 22 Oregon State. Lost to No. 3 Boise State, No. 23 Stanford.
Ohio State (10-2)- Beat No. 9 Iowa, No. 11 Penn State, No. 19 Wisconsin. Lost to USC, Purdue.
Iowa (10-2)- Beat No. 11 Penn State, No. 19 Wisconsin, No. 21 Arizona. Lost to No. 8 Ohio State, Northwestern.
Georgia Tech (11-2)- Beat No. 13 Virginia Tech. Lost to No. 15 Miami, Georgia.
Penn State (10-2)- Beat no ranked teams. Lost to No. 8 Ohio State, No. 10 Iowa.
BYU (10-2)- Beat No. 16 Utah. Lost to No. 2 TCU, Florida State.
Virginia Tech (9-3)- Beat No. 15 Miami, No. 24 Nebraska. Lost to No. 1 Alabama, No. 10 Georgia Tech, North Carolina.
LSU (9-3)- Beat no ranked teams. Lost to No. 1 Alabama, No. 6 Florida, Ole Miss.
Miami (Fla.) (9-3)- Beat No. 10 Georgia Tech. Lost to No. 13 Virginia Tech, Clemson, North Carolina.
Utah (9-3)- Beat no ranked teams. Lost to No. 2 TCU, No. 7 Oregon, No. 12 BYU.
West Virginia (9-3)- Beat No. 18 Pittsburgh. Lost to No. 5 Cincinnati, Auburn, South Florida.
Pittsburgh (9-3)- Beat no ranked teams. Lost to No. 5 Cincinnati, No. 17 West Virginia, N.C. State.
Wisconsin (9-3)- Beat no ranked teams. Lost to No. 8 Ohio State, No. 9 Iowa, Northwestern.
Oklahoma State (9-3)- Beat no ranked teams. Lost to No. 4 Texas, Houston, Oklahoma.
Arizona (8-4)- Beat No. 22 Oregon State, No. 23 Stanford, No. 25 Central Michigan. Lost to No. 7 Oregon, No. 9 Iowa, California, Washington.
Oregon State (8-4)- Beat No. 23 Stanford. Lost to No. 5 Cincinnati, No. 7 Oregon, No. 21 Arizona, USC.
Stanford (8-4)- Beat No. 7 Oregon. Lost to No. 21 Arizona, No. 22 Oregon State, California, Wake Forest.
Nebraska (9-4)- Beat no ranked teams. Lost to No. 4 Texas, No. 13 Virginia Tech, Texas Tech, Iowa State.
Central Michigan (11-2)- Beat no ranked teams. Lost to No. 21 Arizona, Boston College.

Humanitarian or Bust

2009-12-06T09:25:00.000-08:00

Listen to the Guru's Podcast with Jay Christensen of The Wiz of Odds.

UCLA and Notre Dame are rivals. Maybe not so much on the gridiron, but there was a day that these two schools competed fiercely in basketball. After all, it was Digger Phelps' Fighting Irish who ended the Bruins' historic 88-game winning streak in 1974.

But today, UCLA should send a thank-you note to South Bend. For it was Notre Dame's decision to sit out the bowl games that opened the door for the Bruins to extend their season.

As of Friday, UCLA looked to be the odd team out: The only BCS conference school that's bowl eligible but unable to find a spot to play anywhere. The Pac-10, once again, had eggs on its face, with its inability to get more attractive bowl matchups for its conference teams, never mind enough of them to place all bowl eligible teams.

Take a look at the conference tie-in table here:

SEC - 8 (12 member schools)
ACC - 8 (12)
Big 12 - 7 (12)
Big Ten - 6 (11)
Big East - 5 (8)
Mountain West - 5 (9)
Pac-10 - 5 (10)
Conference USA - 5 (12)
WAC - 3 (9)
MAC - 3 (13)
Sun Belt - 1 (9)
Army/Navy - 2 (2)

As you can see, the Pac-10 has by far the worst bowl tie-in ratio among BCS conferences, and it's even worse than the one that Mountain West has. In addition, with the Pac-10 perennially left out of the at-large pool for BCS bowls and its weak bowl affiliations, its member schools suffer in terms of postseason revenue as well.

Without Notre Dame bowing out of the bowl picture, the epithet of this UCLA season would've been Pete Carroll's decision to dial up a bomb in a 28-7 USC victory after Rick Neuheisel refused to accept the Trojans' offer of truce. Now, at least the Bruins get to frolic on Boise's blue turf, leaving the Little Caesars Bowl with potentially two MAC teams.

Pizza, Pizza.

UPDATE: UCLA decided to take the risk of waiting for the Army-Navy game, accepting a conditional bid to the EagleBank Bowl in Washington, D.C., and eschewing the Humanitarian Bowl. If Navy wins, the Bruins will play Temple. If Army wins, the Bruins will stay home. Little Caesars Bowl ends up with an almost all-MAC bowl, with Marshall, a former MAC member, facing Ohio.

Here's one final look at the bowl picture before tonight's selection show. With 68 teams slated to play in 34 bowl games, there are 71 eligible teams with one game still remaining (Army vs. Navy):

BCS BOUND (10)
Alabama (SEC)
Texas (Big 12)
Cincinnati (Big East)
TCU (non-BCS automatic)
Oregon (Pac-10)
Ohio State (Big Ten)
Georgia Tech (ACC)
Boise State (at-large)
Florida (at-large)
Iowa or Penn State (at-large)

BOWL QUALIFIED (50) - teams with at least 7 wins
Clemson
Virginia Tech
North Carolina
Boston College
Miami (Fla.)
West Virginia
Pittsburgh
South Florida
Rutgers
Connecticut
Oklahoma
Oklahoma State
Nebraska
Missouri
Texas Tech
Penn State or Iowa
Wisconsin
Northwestern
USC
Oregon State
Arizona
Stanford
California
LSU
South Carolina
Arkansas
Ole Miss
Auburn
Kentucky
Tennessee
Georgia
BYU
Utah
Air Force
Nevada
Idaho
Fresno State
Houston
Central Florida
Southern Miss
East Carolina
SMU
Navy
Temple
Ohio
Central Michigan
Northern Illinois
Bowling Green
Troy
Middle Tennessee State

BOWL ELIGIBLE (11) - Teams with 6 wins
Florida State
Iowa State
Texas A&M
Michigan State
Minnesota
Notre Dame +
UCLA *
Wyoming
Marshall
Louisiana-Monroe ^
Louisiana-Lafayette ^

+ Opted not to participate in the postseason
^ Will not receive bowl bids

ON THE BRINK (1)
Army *

* If Army defeats Navy on Saturday, the Black Knights will play in the EagleBank Bowl, replacing UCLA.

'Bama-Texas, Ho-Hum

2009-12-05T20:40:00.000-08:00

A dropped hold on a PAT. An errant kickoff out of bounds.

Two plays, they're all that kept a non-BCS team from crashing the BCS title game party for the first time.

But it wasn't to be. Pittsburgh's dropped PAT attempt allowed Cincinnati to escape with a 45-44 victory. Hours later, Texas squeezed by Nebraska with a 13-12 victory, in large part thanks to the kickoff that went out of bounds following the Huskers' go-ahead field goal.

So the BCS conferences can breathe a sigh of relief. Alabama will face Texas in Pasadena for the BCS national championship. TCU, Boise State and Big East's Cincinnati will be left to fight over the scraps.

For what it's worth, the Bearcats will edge the Horned Frogs for the third spot. And had Hunter Lawrence missed his 46-yard field goal as time expired, Cincinnati would've been the team in Pasadena.

Boise State, on the other hand, should be sending some roses to Mr. Lawrence. Texas' victory just about assured the Broncos' safe passage to their second BCS bowl appearance in four years.

The BCS bowl matchups:

BCS national championship game: Alabama vs. Texas
Sugar Bowl: Florida vs. Cincinnati
Fiesta Bowl: Iowa vs. Boise State
Orange Bowl: TCU vs. Georgia Tech
Rose Bowl: Oregon vs. Ohio State

Projected Final BCS Standings: 1. Alabama (expected to score a perfect 1.000 in the BCS ratings), 2. Texas, 3. Cincinnati, 4. TCU, 5. Boise State, 6. Florida, 7. Oregon, 8. Ohio State, 9. Iowa, 10. Georgia Tech, 11. Penn State, 12. Virginia Tech, 13. LSU, 14. BYU, 15. Miami (Fla.).

The Guru's BlogPoll Ballot (Week 13)

2009-11-30T00:02:00.000-08:00

This week's BlogPoll ballot, with comments below:

Rank	Team	Delta

1	TCU
2	Alabama	2
3	Florida	3
4	Texas	1
5	Boise State	2
6	Cincinnati	4
7	Oregon	2
8	Ohio State	2
9	Iowa	2
10	Penn State	2
11	Brigham Young	2
12	Georgia Tech	5
13	Pittsburgh	5
14	Houston	1
15	LSU	2
16	USC	2
17	Oregon State	2
18	Virginia Tech	4
19	Miami (Florida)	4
20	Utah	6
21	California
22	Nebraska
23	West Virginia
24	Oklahoma State	8
25	Central Michigan
Last week's ballot

Dropped Out: Clemson (#20), North Carolina (#21), Temple (#24), Navy (#25).

* Yeah, this is exactly why playing out a championship on ballots is a farce. The top of my ballot is shuffled again once more. Why? Because I have no freaking idea just who is really better than who else. And anyone who claims to definitively and objectively rate one team as better than another is either a liar or a fool.

After next week's SEC championship game, we'll probably have five unbeaten teams that share maybe just a couple of common opponents amongst all of them. You can compare these teams statistically, but with such disparate schedules, that's bordering on meaningless as well.

* So I still have TCU No. 1, even though the Horned Frogs probably will have no shot at the BCS title game. We'll know about Florida and Alabama, and that's all we're going to know. Boise State will be lucky enough to get a BCS bowl berth, but even if the Broncos manage to wallop, say, two-loss Iowa, in the Fiesta Bowl, what exactly does that prove?

* The rest of the ballot is pretty standard fare. It's a freak occurrence that we have six undefeated teams and no one-loss teams. Each of the two-loss teams are on the ballot and all three-loss teams from BCS conferences, save Wisconsin and Rutgers, are on it as well.

* And one additional note to my previous bowl projections: The Orange Bowl will not want a rematch between TCU and Clemson. So if the Tigers win the ACC, look for the Orange Bowl to take the Big East champion, even though it will try everything it can to avoid an ACC-Big East matchup for the third time in four years. This isn't basketball, and that matchup does nothing in terms of TV ratings, attendance or prestige for the bowl.

The real question is, will the Fiesta have the guts to match up two undefeated teams? The answer is no. Because these bowls work together within the framework of the BCS, they'll avoid in any way diminishing or distracting from the BCS championship game.

The Next Conspiracy

2009-11-28T22:13:00.000-08:00

Oklahoma State was exposed as unworthy of a BCS bowl bid. So Boise State is in, right?

With apologies to Lee Corso ... not so fast, my friend!

There is still one scenario where the Broncos would be left out of a BCS bowl bid - if Texas loses to Nebraska in the Big 12 title game, then the Longhorns will gain the final at-large bid over the Broncos. At this point, with six unbeatens and no one-loss teams, it's unlikely that any two-loss team will be chosen over Boise State for the final at-large spot.

But the next conspiracy, if you want to call it that, is on the horizon. With potentially five unbeaten teams heading into the BCS bowls, conveniently only the BCS title game will pit two undefeated teams, denying a claim for a "people's champion." In fact, two of the other three likely unbeatens will be facing a team with at least two losses in BCS bowl games.

This is how the bowl picture will shake out should Texas as expected meets the SEC champion:

BCS Championship Game: Florida/Alabama winner vs. Texas
Sugar Bowl: Florida/Alabama loser vs. Cincinnati/Pittsburgh winner
Fiesta Bowl: Iowa or Penn State vs. Boise State
Orange Bowl: TCU vs. Georgia Tech/Clemson winner
Rose Bowl: Oregon/Oregon State winner vs. Ohio State

If Texas loses to Nebraska:

BCS Championship Game: Florida/Alabama winner vs. Cincinnati or TCU
Sugar Bowl: Florida/Alabama loser vs. TCU or Pittsburgh
Fiesta Bowl: Iowa or Penn State vs. Nebraska
Orange Bowl: Texas vs. Georgia Tech/Clemson winner
Rose Bowl: Oregon/Oregon State winner vs. Ohio State

TCU's blowout victory cemented its claim to be the first team to finish the regular season undefeated, but it came with a price. Because New Mexico is so terrible, the Horned Frogs will take a hit in the computer ratings, so much so that it may cost them a spot in the next BCS standings. It will be close, but the Guru expects Cincinnati to jump TCU for No. 4.

The projected BCS standings:

1. Florida, 2. Alabama, 3. Texas, 4. Cincinnati, 5. TCU, 6. Boise Sate, 7. Oregon, 8. Ohio State, 9. Iowa, 10. Penn State, 11. Georgia Tech, 12. Virginia Tech, 13. Pittsburgh, 14. LSU, 15. BYU.

Bowling Alone ... With 67 Others

2009-11-25T08:23:00.000-08:00

America may be suffering a decline in social capital because everybody is busy texting and tweeting instead of going out and bonding with real people. Robert Putnam was simply ahead of his time.

But that's not a problem in college football. Unless your team really, really sucked, everybody gets to bowl, even if it costs your school money for the privilege.

Once again, we have 34 bowls in this postseason for 68 teams. And on the eve of Thanksgiving, we officially have 69 bowl eligible teams, meaning every bowl slot will be filled, with at least one 6-6 team being sent home despite its ~~excellence~~ perfect mediocrity.

The odd team out could be Notre Dame, either by its own choosing or by being squeezed out of a bowl slot. If the Irish lose to Stanford this weekend - as expected - they may decide to clean house instead of making an appearance at a minor bowl and risking Jimmy Clausen being sucker-punched by one of their irate, drunken alums.

The biggest loser last week was Kansas State, which went from a potential BCS bowl slot to no bowl at all with a single defeat. The Wildcats were playing Nebraska for the Big 12 North title, but their 17-3 loss dropped them to 6-6 overall. And since K-State had two wins over lower division teams, it did not muster the six required victories to be bowl eligible.

Nebraska, meanwhile, becomes one of the 21 teams still under consideration for the 10 BCS bowl slots, according to the BCS press release (in order of the latest BCS rankings):

1. Florida
2. Alabama
3. Texas
4. TCU
5. Cincinnati
6. Boise State
7. Georgia Tech
8. Oregon
9. Pittsburgh
10. Ohio State *
11. Iowa
12. Oklahoma State
13. Penn State
14. Virginia Tech
15. LSU
16. Oregon State
17. Miami (Fla.)
18. Clemson
19. BYU
20. USC
26. Nebraska

(* clinched Rose Bowl berth)

Realistically, only teams in the top 13, plus Oregon State, Clemson and Nebraska, which are playing for their respective conference championships, are still in the running. And in truth, the last BCS bowl slot will come down between Oklahoma State and Boise State.

If the Cowboys defeat Oklahoma in Norman this week, they will be picked by the Fiesta Bowl, leaving Boise State in the cold. Should the Sooners prevail, the Broncos' prospects will brighten considerably, with either the Fiesta Bowl or Sugar Bowl a possible destination.

The BCS bowl lineup with an OSU win:

BCS National Championship: Florida/Alabama vs. Texas
Sugar Bowl: Florida/Alabama vs. Cincinnati/Pittsburgh
Fiesta Bowl: Oklahoma State vs. TCU
Orange Bowl: Iowa/Penn State vs. Georgia Tech/Clemson
Rose Bowl: Oregon/Oregon State vs. Ohio State

The BCS bowl lineup with an OSU loss:

BCS National Championship: Florida/Alabama vs. Texas
Sugar Bowl: Florida/Alabama vs. TCU
Fiesta Bowl: Iowa/Penn State vs. Boise State
Orange Bowl: Cincinnati/Pittsburgh vs. Georgia Tech/Clemson
Rose Bowl: Oregon/Oregon State vs. Ohio State

The rest of the bowl list:

BOWL QUALIFIED (31) - teams with at least 7 wins
North Carolina
Boston College
West Virginia
South Florida
Rutgers
Missouri
Texas Tech
Wisconsin
Northwestern
Stanford
California
Arkansas
Ole Miss
Auburn
Kentucky
Utah
Air Force
Nevada
Idaho
Fresno State
Houston
Central Florida
Southern Miss
East Carolina
Navy
Temple
Ohio
Central Michigan
Northern Illinois
Troy
Middle Tennessee State

BOWL ELIGIBLE (17) - Teams with 6 wins
Florida State
Iowa State +
Oklahoma
Texas A&M
Michigan State +
Minnesota +
Notre Dame
UCLA
Arizona
Georgia
South Carolina
Tennessee
Southern Methodist
Marshall
Bowling Green
Louisiana-Monroe
Louisiana-Lafayette

(+ regular season complete)

ON THE BRINK (8)
Connecticut
Kansas
Wyoming
Army
Hawaii
UAB
Kent State
Toledo

^ Duke, at 5-6, will not be bowl eligible after losing to Miami last week. One of the Blue Devils' wins was over North Carolina Central, which is a provisional member of the FCS (I-AA) and therefore does not count.

The Guru's BlogPoll Ballot (Week 12)

2009-11-23T07:41:00.000-08:00

The Guru's BlogPoll Ballot, with comments below:

(And no, your eyes are not doing tricks on you. It does say No. 1 TCU.)

Rank	Team	Delta

1	TCU	2
2	Cincinnati	4
3	Boise State	2
4	Alabama	2
5	Texas	4
6	Florida	2
7	Georgia Tech	1
8	Pittsburgh	1
9	Oregon
10	Ohio State
11	Iowa	1
12	Penn State	1
13	Brigham Young	1
14	Utah	2
15	Houston	2
16	Oklahoma State	2
17	LSU	6
18	USC	4
19	Oregon State	4
20	Clemson	4
21	North Carolina
22	Virginia Tech
23	Miami (Florida)
24	Temple
25	Navy
Last week's ballot

Dropped Out: Wisconsin (#15), Rutgers (#19), Arizona (#20), Stanford (#21).

With more than a dozen teams already finished their respective schedules, it's appropriate to look at the ballot in the totality with respect to the season. After taking a good look at the credentials of the teams at the top, I came to one inescapable conclusion:

TCU should be No. 1.

Why not? The Horned Frogs are the only teams in the nation ranked in the top five in total offense (fifth) and total defense (fourth). They're the only team among the unbeatens to have defeated three ranked teams (Clemson, Utah, BYU), and by a combined score of 107-45. Two of those wins were on the road. And one is over potentially the champion of another BCS conference.

That should be the barometer, going down the line. Have you beaten the champion or runnerup of another BCS conference? For both Cincinnati and Boise State, that's in the affirmative. The Bearcats won at Oregon State while the Broncos beat Oregon. The Civil War will decide the champion of the Pac-10, the best conference in college football (I'm not going to belabor this point). Cincy's road win nudges it ahead of Boise.

And then you have the big three that have dominated the top of the traditional polls for much of the season. But take a closer look, what have they done, really, to deserve their perch?

The answer: Not much.

Alabama is the best of the trio, having beaten Virginia Tech, a ranked team but not good enough to play for the ACC championship. The Tide have also won the SEC West, which is considerably better than the SEC East this year, with wins over LSU and Ole Miss.

Texas is next, and its only victory of note is over Oklahoma State, the second best team in the Big 12, which isn't saying much this season. Florida checks in at No. 6. Let's face it, the Gators beat LSU - the only ranked team on their schedule - and their next best win was over ... Troy?

Thanks to Clemson's resurgence, Georgia Tech is moving up as the best 1-loss team in the nation - though now it must beat the Tigers again in the ACC championship game. Oregon, without a doubt, is the best two-loss team and checks in at No. 9.

The rest of the ballot is pretty standard fare. Each 2-loss team made the list, along with the best of the 3-loss teams. The team that won the head-to-head battle against another that has the same record, naturally gets the consideration.

One last word, on Temple. This team went 4-42 between 2003-2006 and got kicked out the Big East. Today, as a member of the MAC, the Owls have finally ended two decades of futility by recording their first winning season since 1990 and will play for the conference title against Central Michigan. They make my ballot for the first time, at No. 24, thanks to a victory at No. 25 Navy.

What Happened to Rivalry Weekend?

2009-11-21T21:35:00.000-08:00

Once upon a time (yes, I'm old, I'm 40), the third weekend of November brought us the de facto end of the football season. The biggest rivalries were played on this weekend. From the wind-swept desolate plains in the Midwest to the sun-splashed Pacific Coast, arch rivals lined up to settle things once and for all.

Now, we got Florida-Florida International, and Alabama-Chattanooga.

Thanks a lot, SEC, but I think I'll tune to the History Channel and watch a rerun of the Six Day War.

Today's best rivalry game was The Game. Yeah, Harvard-Yale actually meant something. Michigan-Ohio State? Not so much.

As for the BCS standings, we're in Ground Hog Day mode. In fact, maybe I should just shut down this site for the rest of the year and see you next August. I mean, even a chimp or Brad Edwards can do these projections. Shouldn't I try to win the Nobel Peace Prize (I hear you don't have to do much to get that, but it comes with a cool million)?

Save for Iowa's dropping from the ranks of unbeatens, the top of the BCS standings has stayed virtually static for the past four weeks. The order of the top six teams shuffled around slightly, but nothing much has changed.

There are still 16 teams in contention for the 10 BCS bowl berths. Bad news for Boise State: Either Iowa or Penn State will earn an at-large bid, and Oklahoma State probably will, too, if it can beat suddenly-disintegrating Oklahoma. And there's still a chance that a 9-3 USC team might be chosen over a 13-0 Broncos.

But that's a discussion for later. Here's the projected BCS standings for this week (and no, it's not Memorex):

1. Florida, 2. Alabama, 3. Texas, 4. TCU, 5. Cincinnati, 6. Boise State, 7. Georgia Tech, 8. Oregon, 9. Ohio State, 10. Pittsburgh, 11. Oklahoma State, 12. Iowa, 13. Penn State, 14. Virginia Tech, 15. LSU.

Breaking Down the Bowls

2009-11-19T10:17:00.000-08:00

There are enough bowl projections out there to jam up an entire server, so the Guru is not going to go there. So instead of matchups, I'm going to break down the bowl picture by placing teams in categories of possible bowl attainment.

But before we get to that, I want to make it clear that I did not come up with the "Fairness Index" nor do I endorse it. It appeared here simply to stimulate further discussion.

Not to pile on, but I will offer this simple dissenting opinion:

Using the authors' own definition, then "fairness" would be that teams with the best records (or tied for the best records) should get to play for the championship. In every sport other than Division I-A college football, since time immemorial, teams that owned or tied for the best record always had the opportunity to play for the title, no matter how many tiers of playoffs there might have been.

That's just not the case in the BCS era. See the chart below:

2008- 8 (5)
2007- 2 (1)
2006- 1
2005- 0
2004- 3 (1)
2003- 4 (1)
2002- 0
2001- 0
2000- 0
1999- 1
1998- 1

* Total number of teams with (or tied for) the best regular-season record that did not play in the BCS title game. BCS conference teams in parenthesis.

As you can see, in five of the last six seasons (and it's just about assured for this season as well), at least one team that finished with the best regular-season record did not get to play for the championship. Or look at it this way: only 52 percent of these teams (or 73 percent of BCS conference teams) got to play for the championship.

Doesn't seem so fair now, does it? But I digress, and onto the bowls.

There are 34 bowls and 68 slots. As of today, 32 teams have been eliminated from bowl consideration, leaving 88 teams still eligible. These 88 teams are further divided into four categories below:

BCS WORTHY (19)
Florida *
Alabama *
Texas *
TCU *
Cincinnati *
Boise State *
Georgia Tech *
Pittsburgh *
Ohio State +
Oregon
Oklahoma State
Iowa
Penn State
Oregon State
Clemson
Arizona
Nebraska
Boston College
Kansas State

* in contention for BCS title game
+ clinched a BCS bowl slot

BOWL QUALIFIED (25) - teams with at least 7 wins
Virginia Tech
Miami (Fla.)
North Carolina
West Virginia
Rutgers
Wisconsin
Northwestern
Stanford
California
USC
LSU
Ole Miss
Auburn
Utah
BYU
Air Force
Nevada
Houston
Navy
Temple
Ohio
Central Michigan
Northern Illinois
Troy
Middle Tennessee State

BOWL ELIGIBLE (19) - Teams with 6 wins
South Florida
Iowa State
Missouri
Oklahoma
Texas Tech
Michigan State
Minnesota
Notre Dame
Georgia
South Carolina
Kentucky
Arkansas
Fresno State
Idaho
East Carolina
Southern Mississippi
Central Florida
Southern Methodist
Louisiana-Monroe

ON THE BRINK (25)
Florida State
Duke
Connecticut *
Louisville *
Kansas
Texas A&M
Baylor *
Michigan *
UCLA
Arizona State *
Tennessee
Mississippi State *
Wyoming *
San Diego State
Hawaii *
UAB *
Marshall
Tulsa *
Army *
Bowling Green
Kent State
Western Michigan *
Toledo *
Florida Atlantic *
Louisiana-Lafayette *

* Unlikely to become bowl eligible

With 15 of the 88 teams unlikely to gain bowl eligibility, the process boils down to 73 teams fighting for 68 spots. There is a remote, but real, possibility that there won't be enough bowl eligible teams to fill all 34 bowls. It's also unlikely that any BCS conference team with 6 wins would be kept out of the bowl season.

This list will be updated next week, as well as the BCS bowl projections below:

BCS National Championship Game - Florida/Alabama winner vs. Texas

Rose Bowl - Oregon vs. Ohio State

Sugar Bowl - Florida/Alabama loser vs. Cincinnati/Pittsburgh

Fiesta Bowl - Oklahoma State vs. TCU

Orange Bowl - Iowa vs. Georgia Tech

Would a College Football Playoff Be Fair?

2009-11-17T11:23:00.000-08:00

The following is a guest column written by two economists on the merits of a college football playoff. This article also appeared in RealClearSports.

By Michael Davis and Tim Kane

College football decides its champion in a unique way that has become somewhat controversial because every other major sport in America uses a playoff. Over time, the sizes of those playoff systems have expanded, making college football stand in ever sharper contrast.

College football crowns its Bowl Championship Series (BCS) champion after pairing the top-ranked two teams in a single game. The top teams are determined largely by expert polls with some input from computer algorithms. The team ranked third often has a semi-legitimate case that it deserved an opportunity to play in the championship game, especially since the BCS formula has been repeatedly tweaked. The issue of fairness is a common attack thrown at the bowl tradition by playoff agitators. But fairness is impossible to measure. Or is it?

Any playoff system requires a cutoff that leaves a single team out. The wider the net, the more arbitrary that cutoff becomes (requiring ever more complicated tie-breaker rules). The result is that any playoff introduces another kind of unfairness. An 8-team playoff gives an arguably weaker team the chance to defeat a squad that was much better during the regular season. That may make for enjoyable entertainment, but it is definitely unfair in its way. The argument is that a playoff cheapens the regular season and all its games.

Professional football in the NFL uses a 12-team single elimination playoff to determine its champion. During the most recent Super Bowl, a team with a 9-7 regular-season record (Arizona Cardinals) played and nearly won. That kind of finale happens because with 32 teams in the NFL, more than one-third make the playoff cut.

And consider professional basketball in the NBA and hockey in the NHL. Sixteen teams are included in the NHL's Stanley Cup playoff - selected from just 30 teams. Likewise, in the NBA, 16 playoff teams are chosen from 30 in the league. Literally below-average teams make the playoffs in those sports every year. Is that fair?

Wide bracket playoffs reward casual play during the regular season. Instead of striving for excellence, the smarter strategy is to avoid injuries, especially during the late season games. Such a structure is one way of defining greatness, but is it the only way?

These kinds of arguments can be had in any sports bar in America. But now college football is under assault, with President Obama suggesting a playoff, and Senate hearings grilling the BCS as "un-American." Now that's a low blow. With all the sports statistics available, it's about time somebody took a look at what's fair using quantitative analysis.

The Fairness Index

Being number crunchers by training, we decided to create the Fairness Index. Our index measures the regular season record of a league's champion against its top team. Let's say the champ has a 12-4 record, while the top-seeded team went undefeated during the regular season, 16-0. That's easy. The fairness index for that league in that year is 75 percent. In another case, the top team might have a 15-1 record and go on to win it all, so the fairness index would be 15/15 or 100 percent.

How do you think the fairness index for pro football compares to college? If you think a playoff is fair, then you probably think they're about the same, right? Not even close.

FAIRNESS INDEX

College Football
97.2 % BCS era
96.3 % Pre-BCS era

Professional U.S. Sports
96.6 % Basketball (NBA)
92.6 % Baseball (MLB)
91.6 % Football

* The Fairness Index measures the average ratio of the champion's regular season record to its team with the best regular season record. For example, the average NFL champion has 91.6 percent as many wins as the team with the best record that year. Each of the professional average includes only the years with the current number of playoff teams.

The fairness index is much higher in college football (97.2 percent) than in the NFL (91.6). The higher level of fairness for college ball was true before the BCS, but is even more true today. Gnash your teeth all you want, but the one thing an NCAA football playoff would not be is fair. By our estimate, it would be about 5 percentage points less fair. Translation: the odds of the best team winning the championship would be 5 percentage points lower.

Critics will point to the fairness index for basketball, which at 96.6 percent is roughly the same as the BCS. The NBA seems to prove that a playoff does not mean a low fairness score. But wait, these are different sports, and the playoff design is critical. Three reasons why the NBA index is deceptively high: its playoff follows a best-of-seven format for each series, better teams enjoy home-court advantage, and scoring is frequent (thus less subject to luck rather than talent). The better question is whether the fairness index would rise or fall outside of a playoff. If only there was a way to test that.

But there is!

Fairness Declines as Playoff Bracket Expands

Consider the problem of "playoff creep." As you increase the number of teams in the playoffs, you increase the likelihood that the best team will not win, since they will face more chances to be upset by an inferior team. Most plans for a college football playoff imagine a small number of qualifying teams, maybe four, maybe eight. That way the regular season would still matter to a great degree, and the top teams would not have to face as many playoff games, pivotal injuries, and possible upsets. Realistically, it is unlikely that the bracket would remain small. History says so. Look at the NCAA I-AA (now FCS) football playoffs. Look at the bloated NCAA basketball playoffs. Look at the NBA and NHL mentioned above. Over the decades, they all suffered playoff creep so severe that the regular season is now little more than a pre-season.

But no case of playoff creep is clearer than Major League Baseball. Once upon a time, the Pennant Race was as hallowed and glorious as anything in Sport, and it meant simply finishing the 162-game season with the best record. Winning the World Series was icing on the cake, sure, but it wasn't the cake. Only the team with the very best record in the regular season won the Pennant. Period.

Until 1969, the best team in the American League won its pennant, same for the best team in the National League. That was what determined the two - two! - teams that made it to the World Series. And winning the pennant wasn't just some kind of cheap semi-final for the Series, it was an achievement all its own. From 1969 to 1993, the same logic applied to four divisions. Then in 1995 they converted to a full-blown 8-team playoff, complete with wild cards.

Guess what happened to fairness? Playoff creep in Major League Baseball is associated with a clear decline in the fairness index, from an average of 97.5 percent up until 1968 (the highest in our data), to 95.5 percent when the playoff was introduced, then 92.6 percent when the playoff bracket was expanded after 1984.

A College Football Playoff?

The playoff creep that occurred in those sports is almost certain to hit college football, and with it, a decline in fairness. Again, lower fairness scores with bigger playoff systems means without a doubt that more teams with worse records will get crowned champion than before. It's happened in other sports, which the data proves.

The consequence is that regular season records will not matter. The difference between the BCS and NFL average fairness index is equivalent to one less win in a season. One way to interpret that is that a single loss will essentially have no consequence on a team's chances to be recognized as champion. In other words, every game in the regular season will be not only less important than it is now, but unimportant. There is no question that a playoff would reduce the importance of the regular season.

Famous games such as the series of Florida State-Miami games in the early 1990s would be changed from elimination games in the National Championship chase to warm-ups to possible future play-off matchups. Those games would still have appeal to fans of those teams but would lose their appeal to much of the nation.

College football is unique, though many wish to change it and end its traditions. College football has a more important regular season than any other sport. And because of that, college football has rivalries that maintain their intensity while those of other sports fade. The one knock on college football has long been that its championship crown just isn't fair. But now you know the real story.

=======

Michael Davis, Ph.D., is an Associate Professor of Economics at Missouri University of Science and Technology and can be contacted at davismc@fidnet.com. Tim Kane, Ph.D. is an economist at the Ewing Marion Kauffman Foundation and can be contacted at tkane@kauffman.org. {These view are their own.}

The Guru's BlogPoll Ballot (Week 11)

2009-11-15T20:24:00.000-08:00

The Guru's Blogpoll ballot this week. With comments below:

Rank	Team	Delta

1	Texas
2	Alabama
3	TCU	1
4	Florida	1
5	Boise State
6	Cincinnati
7	Pittsburgh
8	Georgia Tech
9	Oregon	1
10	Ohio State	2
11	LSU	2
12	Iowa	2
13	Penn State	5
14	Brigham Young	7
15	Wisconsin	8
16	Utah	3
17	Houston	2
18	Oklahoma State	2
19	Rutgers
20	Arizona	4
21	Stanford
22	USC	11
23	Oregon State	1
24	Clemson
25	Navy
Last week's ballot

Dropped Out: Miami (Florida) (#17), South Florida (#19), West Virginia (#22).

* The top of the ballot is relatively static, with the exception of TCU and Florida switching places. While the Horned Frogs really did impress in their rout of Utah that all but clinched a spot in a BCS bowl, I'm just not sold on Florida, not at all. The Gators scratched out a victory against yet another mediocre foe. Take a good look at their schedule, whom have they beaten? Other than LSU, there is not another ranked team - not even close. The second best team Florida has beaten might have been Troy. And basically, the Gators should play for the BCS title because they beat two teams (if they get by Alabama)? Come again?

* Pitt and Georgia Tech at Nos. 7 and 8 are basically a coin flip. I can go either way, so I'm sticking with what I have. This will get sorted out anyway because Pitt will either rise if it can handle Cincinnati or sink if it can't.

* Iowa finally gets respect from the Guru - after a loss. But while the Hawkeyes proved their mettle by hanging tough in Columbus, Kirk Ferentz gets no love for not giving his team a chance to win. With about a minute left and a timeout to spare, on their own 35, Ferentz decided to play safe and sit on it instead of trying to get about 35 yards for a field goal and a shot to win the game. Jim Tressel similarly played safe in overtime. And you wonder why the Big Ten constantly gets trashed.

* Stanford at 21, one spot ahead of USC, which was squeezed like a melon by the Cardinal at the Coliseum. The Guru wanted to know what was said between Pete Carroll and Jim Harbaugh after the game. Thanks to our friend the Wiz, now we know what the deal is. Prediction: Carroll doesn't get a chance for payback, not against Harbaugh anyway - he'll be coaching Michigan or some team in the NFL by next year.

Yawn ...

2009-11-14T21:15:00.000-08:00

The 2009 college football season has been about as dramatic as a textbook published by your average college professor. Dry as a bone.

Six undefeated teams, from five conferences. In fact, there are only eight teams with fewer than two losses in all of Division I-A (FBS). And a good number of these will not lose another game the rest of the season.

About the most interesting development this season is the implosion of the once-mighty USC empire. After their meltdown two weeks ago at Oregon, the Trojans bounced back briefly against Arizona State. That proved fleeting, however, as today they were absolutely throttled by Stanford, which managed to run up the score in an ugly 55-21 rout. At the L.A. Coliseum, no less.

The only audible part of the Pete Carroll-Jim Harbaugh post-game pleasantries was a tense-looking Carroll muttering "good game" among other things. Here's hoping someone will emerge with some audio on what was really said.

USC's loss has one major implication: The Trojans' record seven-year run in BCS bowls is over. And that means the probability of having two non-BCS teams in BCS bowls just improved dramatically.

As it is right now, the six BCS conference champions, plus TCU, will get automatic bids. The loser in the SEC championship game between Florida and Alabama will get an at-large berth, leaving two bids up for grabs. Barring a major upset in the Big 12 title game, the choices will be among a 13-0 Boise State team, two-loss Iowa and Penn State, and one-loss Cincinnati.

Given how uneventful this season has been, the top 14 teams in the BCS standings may not change very much from this point going forward. The possibility of having five unbeaten teams is very real.

The projected BCS Standings for this week ... and it looks a lot like last week's. Yawn:

1. Florida, 2. Alabama, 3. Texas, 4. TCU, 5. Cincinnati, 6. Boise State, 7. Georgia Tech, 8. Ohio State, 9. LSU, 10. Pittsburgh, 11. Oregon, 12. Iowa, 13. Penn State, 14. Oklahoma State, 15. Wisconsin.

Might TCU Get to Play for BCS Title?

2009-11-13T10:04:00.000-08:00

As we get closer to the finish line, it seems like amateur hour all over the web. All sorts of people who have as strong a grasp on college football as they do on grammar are coming out with incredibly nonsensical scenarios.

At the risk of spreading baseless speculations, take a look at this one:

National Championship - TCU vs. Boise State
Rose Bowl - Oregon State vs. Wisconsin

Orange Bowl - Pittsburgh vs. Duke

Sugar Bowl - LSU vs. Georgia Tech

Fiesta Bowl - Kansas State vs. Alabama

First of all, Wisconsin cannot win the Big Ten. It's not unlikely, but impossible, per the Big Ten's tiebreaker rules. And if Alabama wins the SEC championship, even with one loss, it's guaranteed to play in the Sugar Bowl. Furthermore, since in this scenario the Orange Bowl has the first pick, there is no way on God's green earth it'd take the Big East champion over all other qualifiers.

So, Sean, please go back and study up a little more before you venture into something that's slightly above your pay grade.

The only item in this juvenile fantasy that's not a mathematical or procedural impossibility is the first one - a BCS national championship game between TCU and Boise State.

It's highly improbable, but not impossible. In addition, the chances of having TCU in the title game - as the first non-BCS conference member - are better than you think. Here's what will need to happen:

a) Texas loses one of its four remaining games
b) Florida loses one of its remaining regular-season games and then beats Alabama in the SEC title game
c) Cincinnati loses one of its remaining three games

If at least two of the above scenarios occur, plus TCU wins its last three games, then voila!, you'll have Horned Frogs kissing Rose princesses (maybe even the queen) in Pasadena right after New Year's Day.

What about Boise State? You ask.

No chance, because there is just about zero possibility of the Broncos jumping TCU if both teams win out.

What about an SEC rematch in the national title game?

That's a longshot, and only would happen if Alabama wins the SEC championship. The Gators are done if they drop one of their remaining regular-season games because they'll get massacred by the computers for their weak schedule.

Why does Cincinnati have to lose?

Because the Bearcats are almost certain to jump TCU if both teams win out. Cincinnati's remaining schedule will be much more to the computers' liking, not to mention the voters'.

Does Boise State have any shot to make the TCU-Boise title game a reality?

Yes, but the odds on that are longer than having Sarah Palin (an Idaho native, by the way) as our next president. Even if every team ahead of Boise State loses a game, the Broncos may still be behind a couple of one-loss teams in the BCS standings. Right now, their primary concern is trying to stay out a second consecutive Poinsettia Bowl.

★★★★★ GAME OF THE WEEK: Utah at TCU, 7:30 p.m. ET (CBS College Sports). Without a doubt, this is the biggest game in TCU history (ah, don't give me the Sammy Baugh bullcrap, were you alive back then?). But unfortunately, it will be seen by only about a third of the nation's cable audience. This is the moment where TCU (and perhaps the whole of the Mountain West) might be able to cross the Rubicon and become a real player in the BCS. A Horned Frogs victory all but locks up a BCS bowl berth, perhaps more.

★★★★ FOUR-STAR GAME: Iowa at Ohio State, 3:30 p.m. ET (ABC). The winner of this game will go to Pasadena. For the Buckeyes, it'll be their first in the Jim Tressel era - and the first since 1996. The Hawkeyes will be the prohibitive underdog now that Ricky Stanzi is out, but an upset will give them their first Rose Bowl berth since 1990. The loser may be out of a BCS bowl altogether.

★★★ THREE-STAR GAME: Notre Dame at Pittsburgh, 8 p.m. ET (ABC). The Irish are reduced to playing for a Gator Bowl berth and perhaps saving Charlie Weis' job. For Pitt, while this game has no implication for the Big East's BCS bowl berth, a lot of national prestige will be on the line. The Panthers need to handle Notre Dame to justify their lofty ranking in the BCS standings.

★★ TWO-STAR GAME: Stanford at USC, 3:30 p.m. ET (FSN). Do you know Stanford is the only team to have beaten USC twice at the Coliseum in the Pete Carroll era? The last time these two met in L.A., the 41-point underdog Cardinal scored a 24-23 shocking upset that ended the Trojans' quest for the 2007 national championship. These two teams will be much more evenly matched up this time around. The spread, in fact, is only 10 1/2.

★ ONE-STAR GAME: Florida at South Carolina, 3:30 p.m. ET (CBS). The Ol' Ball Coach beat his alma mater (and Urban Meyer) in his first season with the Gamecocks, but has lost the last three, including two humiliating defeats the last two years in which the Gators ran up over 100 points. Steve Spurrier will try to make a better go at it this time around, but an upset is probably out of the question. (~~The SEC refs will make sure of it~~ ... Sorry, Mike Slive, I didn't mean it.)

In Defense of the Pac-10

2009-11-10T20:33:00.000-08:00

When it comes to propaganda and publicity, the Pac-10 is woefully ill-prepared in this arms race. Of all the BCS conference, no one undersells itself better than the Pac-10.

If USC isn't such a media darling and hated around the country for its glitz and glam (not to mention excellence), the Pac-10 would be completely unheard of. Out of sight, out of mind. It's a pity because you can make a reasonable argument that the Pac-10 really is the best conference in college football, perhaps 10 years running.

But in the BCS Era, the college football cognoscenti (the self-anointed ones, that is) have been lapping it up at the SEC trough. And the last three seasons, coming on four, an SEC team has been crowned the BCS national champion.

That isn't so much affirmation of SEC's superiority as the sign that it's adroitly winning the media war. If the old Confederacy wasn't able to conquer America, its rightful descendants have made sure that the South indeed has risen, again.

Don't blame the SEC for understanding and leveraging the system to its maximum benefit. But do blame the Pac-10 for not doing its job.

The SEC has an exclusive contract with CBS, which in essence becomes its mouthpiece and lobbyist (see Florida vs. Michigan, 2006). It has a new 15-year deal with ESPN, which also shepherds the nascent SEC Network. The Pac-10, on the other hand, is just a rumor.

Of all the conferences in the ABC/ESPN umbrella, the Pac-10 has arguably the worst deal. Except for the occasional USC prime time games, all Pac-10 games on ABC are regionally televised, which meant they are never seen east of the Rockies. The Pac-10 also plays on Versus (which isn't on DirecTV nowadays) and Fox Sports Net, which is a regional alliance, not a national presence.

Unfortunately for the Pac-10, lacking TV exposure is merely part of its failure to communicate.

Do you know that the Pac-10 teams play nine conference games each? Yep, they play a true round-robin, which means that of all the BCS conferences, the Pac-10 plays the toughest schedule by default because it plays the most conference games. And don't just take my word for it, Jeff Sagarin has the goods.

According to Sagarin's data, of the top 19 schedules this season, nine belong to Pac-10 teams, with five in the top 10, including Oregon at No. 6 and USC at No. 7. How many SEC teams are in the same range? Two: Georgia at No. 10 and LSU at No. 17. You have to go to No. 25 to find Alabama and No. 42 for Florida. (And these numbers will only get worse for the top SEC teams.)

Alas, there's the unmentionable. Part of the SEC's success is that its best teams almost never play anybody outside of conference. And with only eight conference games, they fatten up their records on overmatched opponents at home.

Look at the schedules from 2006-2009, a period where an SEC team has played for the BCS title and USC has been shut out (we're treating 2009 as fait accompli):

Florida
Troy
Florida International
Charleston Southern*
Hawaii
Miami (Fla.)
Citadel*
Western Kentucky*
Troy
Florida Atlantic
Central Florida
Southern Mississippi
Western Carolina*
+ Traditional rival Florida State

LSU
UL-Lafayette
Washington
Louisiana Tech,
Appalachian State*
North Texas
Troy
Virginia Tech
Middle Tennessee State
Louisiana Tech
UL-Monroe
Arizona
Fresno State
+ Traditional rival Tulane

Alabama
Virginia Tech
Florida International
North Texas
Chattanooga*
Clemson
Tulane
Western Kentucky
Arkansas State
Western Carolina*
Florida State
Houston
UL-Monroe
Hawaii
UL-Monroe
Duke
Florida International

(*I-AA opponent at the time when the game was held)

So here's the break down. Over the past four years, in Florida's 12 OCC games excluding its annual rivalry game with FSU, it has played just one BCS conference team (Miami). The rest is mostly against I-AA roadkill (4) and hapless Sun Belt squads (4). It's a little better for LSU (12 games: 3 BCS, 1 I-AA, 5 Sun Belt) and Alabama (16 games: 4 BCS, 2 I-AA, 7 Sun Belt).

Contrast that to USC's schedule since it last played for the BCS title:

Ohio State
San Jose State
Ohio State
Virginia
Idaho
Nebraska
Arkansas
Nebraska
+ Traditional rival Notre Dame

Out of those eight games, six were against BCS opponents, and each was a home-and-home series. For the record, USC is one of only three teams (UCLA and Notre Dame are the others) that have never played a game against I-AA teams.

The point here is not necessarily that the SEC's elite teams are overrated. It simply states the fact that they take the path of least resistance. And for the most part, they get rewarded handsomely for it after trotting out the convenient (and false) disclaimer that "just playing in the SEC is tough enough."

The point here also is to say that the Pac-10 does its conference members a disservice for not disseminating the fact that annually, the conference on average plays a tougher schedule than anyone else and that it has also fared better against other BCS conference teams than anyone else over the past decade.

Why is this the case?

In the BCS Era, when college football has become a national game, the Pac-10 has stayed mostly regional and provincial. But don't blame this on geography. The time difference isn't an issue any more as most games are now finished well before midnight Eastern. Do blame it on apathy and a lack of ingenuity, and that starts with the conference headquarters in Walnut Creek.

The Pac-10 likes to call itself the conference of champions, but the reality is nobody gives a flying hoot how many women's underwater squash titles or NACDA Directors' Cups (do you even know what that is?) your conference has won. The thing that really matters is the crystal ball, and the Pac-10 has only one to show for it - besides being routinely shut out of a second BCS bowl berth by an inferior conference such as the Big Ten.

The irony of all this is that unlike most other conferences, the Pac-10 universities play in some of the biggest media markets. Two in Los Angeles, two in the San Francisco Bay Area, Phoenix, Seattle. Only Washington State is in the middle of nowhere. There is no shortage of media outlets (print, online, radio, television, whatever) to get the word out. Yet, other than USC, the rest of the Pac-10 might as well be playing in Belarus.

In the 11 years of the BCS, only twice has the Pac-10 received two BCS berths. And none since 2002, when the Trojans finished as co-champs and played Iowa in the Orange Bowl. Cal came close in 2004, but was cheated out of a Rose Bowl berth by Mack Brown. This may finally be the year that the conference gets that coveted second BCS spot, but probably only because USC is nudged out of the Rose Bowl.

If the Trojans work their way back into Pasadena (not at all inconceivable, all they need is an Oregon loss to Arizona for a three-way tie), then will the Pac-10 still claim that second BCS bowl slot? Probably not.

It's time for the Pac-10 to seriously consider what kind of player it wants to be in college football. In the meantime, it should probably hire a PR firm, as the WAC did. When it comes to publicity, the Pac-10 needs all the help it can get.

The Guru's BlogPoll Ballot (Week 10)

2009-11-08T17:59:00.001-08:00

The Guru's Blogpoll ballot, with notes below:

Rank	Team	Delta

1	Texas
2	Alabama
3	Florida
4	TCU	2
5	Boise State	1
6	Cincinnati	1
7	Pittsburgh	6
8	Georgia Tech	2
9	LSU	1
10	Oregon	5
11	USC	1
12	Ohio State	4
13	Utah	1
14	Iowa	5
15	Houston
16	Arizona	2
17	Miami (Florida)	3
18	Penn State	7
19	South Florida	2
20	Oklahoma State	2
21	Brigham Young	2
22	West Virginia	2
23	Wisconsin
24	Oregon State
25	Navy
Last week's ballot

Dropped Out: California (#17), Notre Dame (#19), Oklahoma (#25).

* The top of my ballot is taking shape and this feel about right. Texas is playing a bit better than the two SEC heavyweights, but not by much. TCU is the best team among the other three unbeatens, just slightly ahead of Boise. The Broncos have a better victory - over Oregon - but really didn't have another win to validate it. Should the Horned Frogs beat Utah next week, they'll be even more entrenched in that position.

* Cincinnati can still move up, though I have the Bearcats at No. 6 right now. Should they defeat both West Virginia and Pittsburgh, then they would warrant another look. As it is, their signature victory - at Oregon State - isn't quite as impressive as TCU's and Boise's.

* To me, LSU-Oregon-USC-Ohio State, in that order, among 2-loss teams, is quite reasonable. It boggles my mind that voters in the other polls have such amnesia. Wasn't it just last week that Oregon whupped USC? And didn't the Trojans outlast Ohio State at Columbus? LSU's two losses were the best ones among the bunch, that's why the Tigers are ahead of the others.

* Every 2-loss team in the BCS conferences are on the ballot, except Rutgers, whose resume just isn't there. The best 3-loss team is on the ballot: Oregon State, with close losses to Cincinnati, USC and Arizona.

* The least logical placement is probably Navy at No. 25. But it's not that much of a stretch. The Midshipmen lost close games to Ohio State, Pittsburgh and vastly improved Temple, and beat Air Force, Wake Forest and now Notre Dame (not to mention Adm. Isoroku Yamamoto's Imperial Japanese Navy). What else can you say? Anchors Aweigh!

(Even if you're a Notre Dame fan, you can't possibly be too mad about this)

The Biggest Game Was Played on C-SPAN

2009-11-07T21:48:00.000-08:00

While you're digesting all of those scores from Saturday night, the most important one might've flown under the radar: 220-215. Those five votes could mean the difference of all the bowl money ever spent in the history of college football ... and then some. Yep, the price tag for that health care bill is in excess of $1 trillion.

(Sure hope you have an offshore account somewhere, preferably with funds not in U.S. dollar.)

OK, staying on point and returning to our frivolous sporting pursuit ...

It didn't turn out to be Upset Saturday exactly, but the BCS picture definitely became a bit more clear, if not quite crystal clear. This much we do know:

* It appears that a BCS championship matchup between Texas and the SEC champion, either Alabama or Florida, is all but inevitable.

* Iowa finally went down with a thud. However, the Hawkeyes can still win the Big Ten and earn a Rose Bowl bid by beating Ohio State next week in Columbus. If the Buckeyes win, they go to Pasadena.

* The winner of the Oregon-Arizona game will own the inside track to the Pac-10's Rose Bowl bid. However, if the Wildcats win that game, USC would be back in the picture with a win over Arizona in the regular-season finale. That race, because of the Ducks' upset loss to Stanford, is suddenly very much in the air.

* Georgia Tech, by pulling out an OT win against Wake Forest, is closing in on the ACC Coastal title and should be the odds-on favorite for the conference's Orange Bowl bid.

* Notre Dame is done, as far as a BCS bowl berth is concerned. And the likelihood of having two Coalition teams in BCS bowls in the same season - for the first time - increases.

And here are the projections for the next BCS Standings:

1. Florida, 2. Alabama, 3. Texas, 4. TCU, 5. Cincinnati, 6. Boise State, 7. Georgia Tech, 8. LSU, 9. Iowa, 10. USC, 11. Ohio State, 12. Oregon, 13. Pittsburgh, 14. Utah, 15. Houston.

This Could Be Shakeup Saturday

2009-11-06T20:29:00.000-08:00

All the bowl talk could all vaporize if a few games don't go according to plan. But fear not, with the SEC and Big Ten refs carrying Blackberries to receive instant messages from their respective league offices, the "better" teams will find a way to win at the end.

Trust me.

★★★★★ GAME OF THE WEEK: LSU at Alabama, 3:30 p.m. ET (CBS). The past of LSU meets its present. Nick Saban and Les Miles each led the Bayou Tigers to a BCS title, and this game may determine who gets to go for a second ring. For all the talk about a Florida-Alabama SEC title game, LSU still controls its own destiny as a victory puts it on course to win the SEC West. Also a subplot: Alabama's Mark Ingram has a chance to burnish his Heisman credentials.

★★★★ FOUR-STAR GAME: Ohio State at Penn State, 3:30 p.m. ET (ABC). The Buckeyes are playing for a Rose Bowl berth and the Nittany Lions are playing for a BCS bowl berth. Those plans, unfortunately, are mutually exclusive. One team's BCS hopes will be squashed in Beaver Stadium. Terrelle Pryor will find out just how country Happy Valley is.

★★★ THREE-STAR GAME: Oregon at Stanford, 3:30 p.m. ET (FSN). The Ducks owned USC like the Trojans have never been owned before. But will they suffer a letdown in the aftermath? The Cardinal need one more win to be bowl eligible, but with Oregon, USC, Cal and Notre Dame still remaining (25-7 combined), they'll take that victory anywhere they can get it.

★★ TWO-STAR GAME: Northwestern at Iowa, noon ET (ESPN). Every week could be the week that Iowa's bubble gets burst. The Hawkeyes needed near miracles to pull out victories the past two weeks and they go to Ohio State for a make-or-break game next week. Will they get caught looking ahead or will their luck finally run out?

★ ONE-STAR GAME: Connecticut at Cincinnati, 8 p.m. ET (ABC). The grieving Huskies are still looking for their first victory after two heart-breaking losses (by an identical score of 28-24). The Bearcats have quite a gauntlet to finish the season, with West Virginia and Pittsburgh still on the schedule. They cannot afford to overlook anybody.

The Season's First BCS Bowl Cast

2009-11-05T08:21:00.000-08:00

Let's go first thing first, since I made the pledge to investigate last week's inaccurate projection of the No. 2 team in the BCS Standings.

Well, the findings turned out to be as simple as what the Warren Commission uncovered: A single shooter with a magic bullet. Except that it didn't require the entire weight of the federal government and thousands of pages to state the obvious.

The voters did it, basically, particularly the Harris voters. As of Week 8, Alabama was safely at No. 2, with Texas a good deal behind. But after Texas' impressive victory at Oklahoma State and with Alabama idle, there was a whopping 44-point flip in the Harris Poll, meaning nearly 20 percent of the voters switched their votes. The movement in the Coaches Poll was a bit less, but a 14-point swing still represented a 12 percent change from the previous week.

That is somewhat unprecedented. I had projected Texas to edge ahead of Alabama in the polls, but not to this degree. But I will give the voters credit. This season, they seemed more than ever willing to reconsider their ballots from week to week. And not just for the top two or three slots, but the entire top 10.

Since that's the case, I'll keep that in mind the rest of the season and do better with the projections this week.

Now, onto the most pressing question, something everyone seems to be wondering at this point: What's the BCS Bowl picture look like?

With five weeks still to go in the regular season, and seven teams still remain unbeaten, the BCS bowl picture is far from clear. But there's enough to at least take a stab at. So here it is:

BCS National Championship Game

Florida/Alabama winner vs. Texas

Other contenders (in order of likelihood): Iowa, TCU, Cincinnati, LSU, Boise State, Oregon.

Comment: Florida and Alabama are on a collision course for the conference title game. If neither team stumbles, the winner of that game will be representing the SEC in the BCS title game for the fourth straight season. Texas has a clear sailing toward the Big 12 title game, as it's expected to be a double-digit favorite for all of the remaining games.

Rose Bowl

Ohio State vs. Oregon

Other contenders: Iowa, Penn State; Arizona.

Comment: Ohio State controls its own destiny. Wins over Penn State and Iowa will send the Buckeyes to Pasadena. Penn State needs to beat Ohio State and also Iowa to lose twice. Arizona, believe it or not, still controls its own destiny as well, though it has Oregon, Cal and USC on the schedule. But if the Wildcats run the table, they will be making the school's first-ever Rose Bowl appearance.

Sugar Bowl

Florida/Alabama loser vs. TCU

Other contenders: Boise State, Utah.

Comment: The Sugar Bowl has to take the SEC runner-up with the first pick, or risk losing it to the Orange Bowl. By BCS's rotation rules, it will have the last pick. So that means it'll end up with the top-ranked Coalition team, either TCU or Boise State, or even Utah, which needs to knock off TCU and a Boise State upset loss for a return trip to New Orleans.

Fiesta Bowl

USC vs. Pittsburgh/Cincinnati winner

Other contenders: Notre Dame, Big Ten runner-up, Boise State, Arizona.

Comment: If the Trojans remain unbeaten the rest of the season, expect the Fiesta to snag them with the second pick. If they lose, then a 10-2 Notre Dame team will go here. If both teams lose somewhere along the way, then the Big Ten runner-up will get the nod. If the Fiesta ends up with the Big Ten runner-up, then it might decide to use its second pick on Boise State, even if it doesn't get the Coalition automatic bid.

Orange Bowl

Iowa vs. Georgia Tech (ACC champion)

Other contenders: Penn State, Cincinnati/Pittsburgh winner; Miami.

Comment: Most likely, the Orange will use its pick to take the Big Ten runner-up to go with the ACC champion. If neither USC nor Notre Dame qualified and the Fiesta decides to take the Big Ten's runner-up, then the Orange will go ahead and grab the Big East winner. A scenario also exists for a 10-2 Miami team to claim this spot.

The Guru's BlogPoll Ballot (Week 9)

2009-11-01T20:24:00.000-08:00

The Guru's Blogpoll ballot, with notes below:

Rank	Team	Delta

1	Texas	3
2	Alabama	1
3	Florida	1
4	Boise State	1
5	Oregon	1
6	TCU	3
7	Cincinnati	3
8	LSU
9	Iowa
10	Georgia Tech	1
11	Penn State	1
12	USC	5
13	Pittsburgh	3
14	Utah	1
15	Houston	1
16	Ohio State	5
17	California	3
18	Arizona	4
19	Notre Dame	5
20	Miami (Florida)	1
21	South Florida
22	Oklahoma State	7
23	Brigham Young
24	West Virginia	7
25	Oklahoma
Last week's ballot

Dropped Out: Virginia Tech (#18), Central Michigan (#23), South Carolina (#25).

* My projections were a bit off this week, and I'm performing an autopsy on the carcass to see what went wrong. I'll have a post mortem report in the next day or two, but keep in mind that this ballot has nothing to do with the projections. The vote here is purely my own subjective opinion.

* Texas moves to No. 1 this week. As I have stated in the past, I'm more than willing to shuffle the ballot every week based on the overall performance of the teams. The Longhorns, over the past two weeks, have played like the best team in the nation and will, for this week, occupy the top slot.

* Meanwhile, Alabama should not be punished for being idle, as it's apparently been done in all the major polls. Yes, both Texas and Florida won impressively. But it's not like the Tide had bad week at practice (that may be the case, but you'll have to ask Nick Saban).

* The team I really want to put at No. 2 is Oregon, who's playing better than anyone with the possible exception of Texas. The Ducks did the unthinkable to USC and now own a stranglehold on the Pac-10 race. But logically there is just no way to put the one-loss Ducks over undefeated Boise State, who beat beat them head-to-head. And the Broncos are not the second-best team in the nation.

* I'm still just not buying Iowa. This may be the most contentious issue at this time, but the Hawkeyes' latest performance, to me, has more to do with luck than grit. Once in a while, you'll find a team that keeps escaping certain defeat in the most unimaginable fashion possible ... until it finally gets its comeuppance. See Hawaii, 2007.

* Notre Dame moves to No. 19. In the BCS Standings, it's at No. 22. The Irish are certainly within striking range of qualifying for BCS consideration (top 14), but they still have plenty of work to do. I will unveil the first BCS bowl forecast of the season later this week.

The Revolution Was Televised on ABC

2009-10-31T20:27:00.000-07:00

1453. 1644. 1917. And now, Halloween 2009.

Like the Byzantine, Ming and Romanov empires, all good things must come to an end. Such was the case for the Trojan Dynasty that has ruled the Pac-10 since 2002.

In retrospect, it was easy to see that this was a rebuilding year for USC. It lost most of its defensive stalwarts, including an entire linebacking corps that went among the first 38 picks in the NFL draft. It lost its star quarterback, who now hot dogs it for the New York Jets. It even lost its offensive coordinator to a rival Pac-10 school.

But because it's USC, it was assumed that it'd go on like business as usual ... until Saturday night, when the Oregon Ducks formally pronounced the fin de siecle with a resounding quack.

Since Pete Carroll's arrival in 2001, the Trojans have never been on the business end of a beatdown ... until Saturday night. Oregon's 47-20 victory was by far the worst loss in the Carroll Era (they have lost by double digits just once previously, by 11 to Notre Dame in 2001). It was also the most points the Trojans have ever allowed under Carroll (and the most since 1996).

The loss to Oregon effectively ends USC's bid for a short ride to Pasadena - either for the Rose Bowl or the BCS title game. The Trojans, of course, are still very much alive for a BCS bowl bid, possibly the Fiesta, but they won't win the Pac-10 this year.

The shame is that while Oregon will go on and claim the Rose Bowl bid, it almost certainly has no chance of claiming a spot in the BCS title game, despite playing better than anyone in the country at the moment. The Ducks, after a difficult season-opening loss at Boise State, have ruled the Pac-10 the way USC used to, outscoring their five conference foes by a score of 208-58.

Meanwhile, Iowa's BCS title hopes are alive and well despite yet another shaky performance. Some voters, however, are bound to elevate the Hawkeyes on their ballots based on that deceiving 42-24 final score over Indiana.

But ask yourself this: Is there any doubt which team is better, has played better, and has played better competition? If Iowa were to meet Oregon on a neutral field next week, who would be a double-digit favorite?

It's not Iowa. And the BCS is most definitely not heaven.

Projected BCS Standings:

1. Florida, 2. Alabama, 3. Texas, 4. Iowa, 5. TCU, 6. Boise State, 7. Cincinnati, 8. Oregon, 9. LSU, 10. Penn State, 11. Georgia Tech, 12. USC, 13. Ohio State, 14. Pittsburgh, 15. Utah.

Who's Your (Sugar) Daddy?

2009-10-30T12:54:00.000-07:00

Mike Gundy may be a man now (at least he thinks so), but part of his everyday challenge is very much the burden foisted upon every boy the world over - making his daddy proud.

Gundy's daddy, metaphorically speaking, of course, is T. Boone Pickens, a Texas oil man. A man who's given over a quarter of a billion bucks to the Oklahoma State athletic program. A man whose name graces the Cowboys' brand-spanking new stadium.

And Gundy has no better opportunity to please his (sugar) daddy than this week.

Oklahoma State's football program, thanks to the largess of Pickens, is trying to emerge from the shadows of Oklahoma and Texas and become a bona fide powerhouse in the Big 12. The trouble is, in order to be in their company, you have to beat them at least once in awhile.

Gundy has never beaten either since taking over as the Cowboys head coach in 2005. In fact, OSU last defeated Oklahoma in 2002 and has not won against Texas since 1997, which was the only time in history that the Cowboys managed to defeat both in the same season.

They have a chance to rewrite some history, beginning Saturday night when the Longhorns visit Boone Pickens Stadium, an invasion that's certain to draw a record crowd in Stillwater.

Texas is ranked No. 3, in line for its first BCS title game berth since 2005, and favored by 9 1/2 points. But the Cowboys, whose lone loss was at home to Houston, can seize control of the Big 12 South race with an upset victory. That would put them on course for the school's first Big 12 title, first BCS bowl game, and first 10-win season, ever.

It's a lot to play for. It's something to make your daddy real proud ... and rest assured he'll be there, since he never misses a game.

By all accounts, Pickens has not been the meddling type, but you'd be a fool to think that a man who's given OSU $400 million over the years doesn't exert some influence. Gundy, for example, got a new seven-year contract worth $15.7 million at the end of last season. We're just guessing that some (if not most) of that money comes out of Pickens' pocket.

For now, Gundy will have earn his keep without All-American wideout Dez Bryant, who has been declared ineligible for the rest of the season by the unforgiving NCAA. You see, even at OSU, there is a higher power that even Pickens' billions can't buy.

★★★★★ GAME OF THE WEEK: USC at Oregon, 8 p.m. ET (ABC). As important as the Texas-OSU game is, it doesn't quite take the top billing. Oregon has a chance to end USC's seven-year reign as the Pac-10's top dog, something the Ducks thought they had accomplished in 2007, but couldn't quite finish the job. The Trojans, despite playing a freshman quarterback, are in the thick of the BCS title race. A USC win at Autzen Stadium all but locks up, at the minimum, a record eighth straight trip to a BCS bowl.

★★★★ FOUR-STAR GAME: Texas at Oklahoma State, 8 p.m. ET (ABC). The Longhorns have beaten the Cowboys in the last 11 meetings and are 21-2 all-time against OSU. But the Cowboys have made things interesting of late, losing only 28-24 last year and dropping a 38-35 decision in 2007 after blowing a 21-point fourth-quarter lead. The winner of this game will effectively claim the Big 12 South and be a heavy favorite in the conference title game.

★★★ THREE-STAR GAME: Georgia vs. Florida, 3:30 p.m. ET (CBS). The World's Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party has been reduced to merely The Coke-Zero Tailgate Hangout as the recession and Georgia's mediocrity both have put a damper on this rivalry. The Gators are still acting mad about the entire-team celebration stunt from two years ago. The Bulldogs, meanwhile, are not acting or saying anything for fear of a repeat of last year's beatdown.

★★ TWO-STAR GAME: Indiana at Iowa, noon p.m. ET (ESPN). Will Iowa's luck finally run out? They have pushed the envelope in just about every game this season, including last week's Houdini-like escape against Michigan State. This year's Hoosiers are actually not half bad, and if the Hawkeyes are already dreaming about the BCS or the Rose Bowl, they could be in for a sudden and rude awakening.

★ ONE-STAR GAME: Cincinnati at Syracuse, noon ET (ESPNU). The Bearcats seem to be on a collision course with Pittsburgh in the season finale for the Big East crown and a BCS bowl berth. But they still have a few more obstacles to overcome before they can get there and aim for an undefeated season. Cincy's task this week? Beat a standout basketball star in the biggest on-campus basketball arena.

Iowa Lacks Style ... Does It Lack Substance?

2009-10-28T07:00:00.000-07:00

After the 2001 season, the BCS forced the computers remaining in the BCS formula to remove margin of victory (MOV) as an element in their respective algorithms. The reason, ostensibly, is that it discourages teams from running up the score since they wouldn't benefit from it.

Well, they should've asked all the pollsters to remove their eyeballs so they can only check the scores in Braille.

We're more than halfway done in the 2009 season, and the BCS Standings provides a clear picture: Style points matter. Why else would Iowa be ranked fourth despite being the near-unanimous choice as the top team by the computers?

The Hawkeyes may be 8-0, but they got to 8-0 in the ugliest fashion imaginable. They had to block two field goals against I-AA Northern Iowa (5-3, ranked 14th in the I-AA poll). They looked listless against Arkansas State (2-4, sixth in the Sun Belt). They escaped against Michigan, thanks to five Wolverines turnovers, including a game-killing interception in the final minute. And they needed the very last second to beat Michigan State last week.

BCS Automatic Qualifier Analysis - Now Updated!

The computers may love Iowa, but clearly the voters don't. The Hawkeyes are ranked eighth in both the Harris and Coaches polls, the lowest among the seven remaining unbeaten teams and also behind one-loss USC.

The less-than-stylish victories may ultimately cost Iowa a shot at the BCS national championship. There is a pretty wide gulf between the Hawkeyes and No. 3 Texas, the team poised to face the SEC winner (between Florida and Alabama) in the BCS title game. Iowa's computer points have maxed out, meaning it could only lose ground in this department against all other contenders.

The question is: Will they gain on the competition in the two polls? (I've been admonished by a reader for using the redundant "human polls," so I'm honoring his wish.)

They have one chance, and one chance only, to do that. The Hawkeyes have four games remaining, three at home against mediocre Big Ten foes (Indiana, Northwestern, Minnesota, combined 13-11) - they can only be hurt by not winning these games impressively. Their only road game, at Ohio State on Nov. 14, appears to be only road block to an undefeated season.

A resounding win over the Buckeyes will do wonders for Iowa. It will all but guarantee that the Hawkeyes will stay ahead of the Trojans, who eeked out an 18-15 win at Columbus earlier in the season. That also will pave the way for them to stay clear of all other unbeaten teams. It might even give them enough of a boost to jump Texas.

Toward the end of each season, the BCS becomes all about the polls, and therefore all about style. For the judges in this beauty pagaent, ugly victories count for about as much as moral victories.