Throwing Into Traffic

Empire Football Episode 6 - 11/12/2009

2009-11-14T15:10:00.003-05:00

If you aren't checking the new Empire Football Podcast on a weekly basis, you're not getting nearly enough absent-minded football rambling in your life. And THAT, my friend, is the true crime. Still time to hear about Bucco Bruce, the G-Men, the Jets game, Jason Campbell as the bottom of the barrel, and more.

GET THE PODCAST HERE

More to come...

Empire Football Episode 4 - 10/29/2009

2009-10-30T14:11:00.001-04:00

Alright, we've finally gotten most of the kinks out. Props to the brilliant Cian for giving us one of our best ideas yet (because there's no shortage of those...)

DOWNLOAD OR STREAM IT VIA THIS LINK

We'll be in touch soon.

The Empire Football Podcast

2009-10-22T15:03:00.003-04:00

(This is how I felt at that game, too.)

Apologies for my having been far too absent for far too long. Real world events (including me convincing a woman to spend the rest of her life with me...so HA, everyone) have kept me from posting as much as I wanted to.

Additionally, we've been getting a new podcast off of the ground, which we'll house here. It's called Empire Football, and it's going to be where a lot of my stat heavy references go,which will free up TiT to get back to the less number-reliant enjoyments of the best epic story in sports.

You can stream or download the podcast here, and I'd appreciate ANY feedback you guys can give.

So, in short, we're coming back, and we're very grateful that you're still here. Also, I'm engaged (/girlish giggling).

The Hangover - Week 3

2009-09-30T17:13:00.002-04:00

- I am invincible, people. INVINCIBLE. Let me give you a list of rookie quarterbacks to win their first three games in the NFL. Ahem: El Guapo Mark Sanchez. LIST OVER!

- Okay, taking a deeper breath, I recognize that Sanchez had a pretty bad day on Sunday (the rain was KILLING him), but even that is encouraging. The fact that he had the kind of nightmare game you expect from a rookie quarterback and the Jets still managed to win speaks both to the strength of this team’s defense (is there a better one in the league right now?) and to Sanchez’s strengths as a quarterback. Bad quarterbacks panic easily and never seem to dig their way out of holes in which either they or the circumstances around them have put themselves. Great quarterbacks respond to problematic starts by capitalizing on inevitable mistakes made by the other team. Brady has always done it, Romo has done it when he’s been great, and on Sunday, El Guapo turned punished the Titans for their special teams miscues at every turn.

- That said, I’m not thrilled that Kerry Collins was able to move the ball down the field against a sub par coverage unit, the one flaw in this Jets defense. Outside of Revis and Rhodes, there’s really nobody I trust in coverage schemes, and if the blitz doesn’t pressure the quarterback, Dwight Lowery isn’t staying with ANYBODY. He seems like a nice guy, and he’s certainly smart enough to figure out routes, but that just makes it more embarrassing when he’s getting burned by speedy wideouts or shrugged off by larger receivers . He’ll make a great coach, hopefully sooner rather than later.

- Last note on that game; what do we make of Tennessee? In each of their three losses, they’ve shown flashes of the team that dominated the AFC last year, but isn’t there a point where you’re no longer a good team playing bad games, but a bad team that plays respectably? Collins seems just good enough to make you lose close (this is the difference between VY and Collins, for those scoring at home), and the excuse of “no pass catchers” seems all the more fraudulent with what the Titans possessing the most underrated three man receiving unit (Gage, Washington, and Britt) in the league (them or the Giants, at this point). Chris Johnson is amazing, and Lendale White is as good a short yardage back as you’ll find, but it feels more and more like teams will just dare Collins to throw, and this year he doesn’t seem good enough to take advantage of the situation. Long story short: VY is going to make his comeback this year. Yes, I am excited. Thanks for asking.

- I am completely confused by what Todd Haley is doing in Kansas City. If the plan is to wave the white flag on what wasn’t going to be a winning season anyway and pick up a sweet draft pick, well, kudos for brilliant execution. Still, he might want to be a little less obvious than he was this past week. Against an Eagles offense that was killing him, Haley called only 18 passes, even with Cassel playing a clean game (he finished 14/18 with 2 TDs and no INTs) and his run game generating absolutely nothing (3.4 yards per carry, and that includes a 22 yard anomaly by Bradley). If that doesn’t signal the kind of stubbornness that kills coaching careers, I’m not sure what does.

- Mark my words: This Kevin Kolb thing is going to end poorly this season.

- Here’s the thing: The Packers are 2-1, with one of those wins coming against an abysmal Rams team suffering from injuries and the other coming from bit of a lucky break against a Bears team that all but gave away the game. 2-1 is good no matter how you split it, but for a team that was supposed to be firing on all cylinders, this defense looks surprisingly porous (19th in the league) and the offense looks even more disappointing considering how good it was supposed to be (particularly the pass attack, which is a disappointing 18th in the league). With all the hype surrounding this upcoming matchup against the Vikings (with whathisface at QB), I’m not sure this team is ready for a spotlight matchup against a legitimate NFC title contender.

- It’s not even a question whether Kyle Boller is the better option at QB for the Rams. At least fail while trying, guys.

- There wasn’t a game better than the 49ers-Vikings matchup on Sunday. Both teams look poised to make a run at the NFC title, particularly the 49ers, whose division doesn’t quite seem ready to compete with them (though I’m still rooting for a Seahawks resurgence). I would have loved to see that game play out with Frank Gore, still involved, but that game winning drive proved that this Vikings team, unlike the last two years’ versions, has all the pieces to succeed. Favre has the arm to take advantage of mismatches created by defenses focusing on Peterson, but he also has the quick strike capability to win games in a single throw (that last pass was more incredible vision and skill than luck). Equally exciting was the emergence of Vernon Davis as the potentially breathtaking receiver that we always knew he could be but stopped believing he would be. If he’s for real (and if he is, then Mike Singletary is a genius and all my doubts about him are gone for good), this team is one of the few squads without a glaring hole (even Shaun Hill at QB doesn’t count, considering he’s finding Davis better than anyone before him). I feel like we’ll see this matchup again come the postseason.

- I’m not sure I’ve seen a pass rush as ineffective as the Falcons was on Sunday. While I’m not ready to crown the Patriots as being “OK” just because it’s early, I’m equally unprepared to pronounce them dead to rights, and it is due in large part to the talent of the skill positions they demonstrated against Atlanta. Since the season began I was wondering if the Falcons had a “hole” in their game; the defensive front proved to be a glaring weakness against New England. For the Pats, the ground game found its rhythm thanks to Fred Taylor being utilized as a primary back, and Brady was able to work with the pocket his O-Line provided him. How much of that was due to the effective rushing attack and how much was due to a genuine improvement of the O-Line will be the difference between “crafty lurker” and “dominating title contender”, but either one works perfectly for a team that has had its doubters for the past three weeks. Besides, Belichick has always worked better as a crafty Iago than a dominating Greek god.

- Meanwhile, the Falcons need to figure out a way to work Jerious Norwood into their regular offense. He’s too fast to ignore, and he’ll be an important part of making up for days when Matt Ryan is being challenged by good coverage schemes.

- It’s hard to explain, largely because the results have been similarly disappointing for both teams, but the Bills and Bucs are excellent examples of simplicity used rightly and wrongly, respectively. For the Bills (whose 1-2 record stems from a heartbreaking loss that falls squarely on one man and an early matchup against what may be the Super Bowl favorite), simplicity was the perfect decision, largely because their personnel fit neatly into narrow, yet effective roles. Terrell Owens is the dominating presence both figuratively and literally who controls his realm of possession, Lee Evans is the combustible threat at the edges, Marshawn Lynch (when he returns) is the angry battering ram, and Trent Edwards is the machine that determines when each piece is most effective. Reducing the offense to a small set allows each piece to maximize that which their character makes them do very well and minimizes ineffective, unnecessary experimentation. On the other hand, the Bucs have a collection of individuals whose skill set is varied (Antonio Bryant, Kellen Winslow, and Michael Clayton all have downfield speed and imposing size, and Derrick Ward was brought in to be an equally versatile weapon in the backfield. As such, Byron Leftwich, a plodding, slow release catapult of a QB was never the right call here. Either Josh Johnson (who will get the start this week) or Josh Freeman are the better choice for this team due to their ability to create plays with their feet and pose equally amorphous threats to defenders. Complexity and simplicity in the league both play the same role a system does in general: They ought to be tailored to the personnel involved.

- My personal Super Bowl favorites proved they are every bit the imposing monster that a favorite needs to be against bad teams, as the Ravens killed the Browns and Brady Quinn’s career. More impressive is the resurrection of Willis McGahee as the second head of the backfield monster and the stunning strength of the passing game, a strength that has to rest almost entirely on the emergence of Joe Flacco as a great passer (the Baltimore offense is 5th in passing yardage and Flacco is averaging over 8 YPA on 104 attempts). That said, keep an eye on the upcoming matchup with the Pats, which should answer a lot of our questions regarding Baltimore’s secondary, which Brady will attack relentlessly.

- The Texans are not a legitimate threat this year. Legitimate threats don’t get picked apart like that by sub par teams, nor do they let a teams obvious best (and for the Jaguars, only) weapon totally destroy them (MJD had 119 yards on 23 carries and 3 TDs…meanwhile Garrard completed just 18 passes of 30 attempts for 214 yard). Everything about this squad from the top (coaching) down (defense, run game) looks very confused, and why they didn’t throw any confusion into the Jags backfield (Garrard had ALL day and MJD was untouched at the line on most runs) is bizarre considering the investment they’ve made in their defensive front.

- I’m sorry, Redskins fans, but your team is EASILY the most disappointing squad in the league. Also, can anyone explain why Clinton Portis gets just 12 carries against a run defense that STILL has done nothing to prove itself this season? It’s the curse of the platoon system when a back can’t get a rhythm and find holes that emerge as defenders tire.

- Also, I love that it’s pretty much always a bad sign for Redskins fans when Santana Moss is having a great game.

- Stafford looked good in the Lions first win in years, and more importantly he looked good without relying too heavily on Calvin Johnson. Yes, the offense should still be centered around Megatron, but the only way that will work is if the team works to develop credible receiving threats around him. For the first time since Roy Williams was in town, the Lions may have those threats (Bryant Johnson is scrappy, and Pettigrew is becoming more comfortable in the pass game each week). Throw in Kevin Smith (who suffered an unfortunate injury) as a versatile back, and this team may finally be on the long road back.

- I don’t care if I catch crap for it: Seneca Wallace is the right choice for the Seahawks. Behind a decimated line (seriously, look at the tape and tell me when Wallace had time to work in a pocket) and with his kicker failing to capitalize on offensive yardage earned, the Seahawks offense still looked somewhat respectable, especially considering Wallace was making his first start of the season against a stout Bears defense (9th in the league in yardage allowed). Furthermore, his feet (which Mora strangely opted not to use more often) give the Seahawks an option that Hasselbeck does not, and I’m honestly not sure that the passing suffers as much as people tend to argue (that INT wasn’t an errant throw, it was a last ditch attempt to avoid a safety due to his O-Line getting crushed). Yes, I know I’m making a lot about this, but I genuinely believe the Seahawks could have a frightening pass attack, and Wallace’s mobility behind a bad offensive line is a big part of that.

- Carson Palmer may no longer be an elite quarterback, but he’s become something more important. Before, mistakes like interceptions and stalled drives would throw Palmer into such a panic that he’d inevitably try to win the game on the strength of his arm, which doesn’t work against good defenses. Now, Palmer looks like he just doesn’t care about miscues. Yes, this means he’s throwing more picks, but it also means he looks genuinely relaxed against good defenses, even when losing. That game winning drive against Pittsburgh doesn’t happen last year; now, Palmer sits back, trusts the firepower he has around him (those receivers are the real strength of the offense) and is infinitely better for it. In essence, he’s figured out that being a member of the family is more fun than being the captain of the ship, and in this case it’s more effective too.

- Fine, give up on Limas Sweed if you want, Steelers, but with that offensive line, Mike Wallace, an aging Hines Ward, and an undersized Santonio Holmes aren’t scaring anybody.

- The sad thing is that I would take Tyler Thigpen right now over both Pat White (who hasn’t had a chance to really learn the offense either thanks to his Wildcat duties) or Chad Henne (who is the “Fat Chad” yang to Handsome Chad’s yin). Furthermore, Thigpen’s mobility makes this offense slightly (VERY slightly) less impotent thanks to mediocre deep threats. Yes, this team could still easily lose at least 12 games, but you should at least put someone under center who makes it interesting.

- The Chargers offense is shaping up to be the one unit that nobody in the league should want to see come January, but unless they can get a semi-decent ground game going during Tomlinson’s absence, they’ll wind up losing more shootouts than they win. That said, Vincent Jackson is killing teams this year (5 receptions for 120 yards against Miami is ridiculous), and if the ground game can keep anybody honest, Rivers is going to pick apart defenses all year long.

- Dear Eddie Royal: Die. Signed, my fantasy football team.

- Seriously though, can someone explain why the phrase “over his head” is still being used when talking about Josh McDaniels? I heard someone compare him to Eric Mangini the other day and almost smashed my head through my laptop. Mangini held a clipboard while Belichick ran his defense, like he always has during his tenure in New England. Meanwhile, McDaniels, in his tenure as offensive coordinator, made Matt Cassel a very rich man last season and RAN THE BEST OFFENSE OF ALL TIME. His offense, run by Kyle Orton and basically missing the disappointing Eddie Royal is getting better each week, and his intelligent hiring of Mike Nolan has his defense as the best in the league. But yeah, he got rid of Jay Cutler, who is 2-1 with a league leading 5 interceptions after playing the overrated Packers and Steelers and a Seahawks team that would have won with either a healthy offensive line or a better kicker (no, it’s not OK to miss a 30 yarder just because you made 4 kicks). We should probably fire Josh McDaniels now.

- Seriously, Correll Buckhalter is a top ten running back on 31 attempts. HOW ARE SPORTSWRITERS STILL QUESTIONING THIS HIRE?!?!?

- I have no explanation for that JaTrocious performance from the other offense. Thanks, I’ll be here all night.

- I’m not sure why we’re not hearing more about the Colts as a Super Bowl contender, but it’s time to start talking about them. Their defense has never been particularly good, but Manning has never looked this good either. It’s like he picked up where last season left off (remember, they lost a playoff game without their offense seeing the field thanks to the NFL’s utterly retarded overtime rules). 24/35 for 379 yards and 4 TDs is just stupid, and he’s been looking similarly unstoppable all season. In an AFC South that looks particularly weak this year, these guys could coast to a first round bye and suddenly look very, very scary for opponents.

- I’m going to defend the indefensible and say that John Fox is making the right call by sticking with Jake Delhomme. Yes, he’s looked terrible the past three games, and he leads the league in INTs hovering just above JaMarcus Russell in QB rating, but you don’t pull him after Monday’s game. If you do, you take away the chance that he might die on the field and never ruin your football team again. That’s the plan here, right?

The Hangover – Week 2

2009-09-23T17:27:00.003-04:00

- Screw cautious optimism; I root for the best team in the AFC East. After week one, the question was how bad the Texans were. After week two, we should all be wondering just how good the Jets could be this year. Here is what the game looked like for the Pats offense: Punt, punt, FG, INT, FG, FG, punt, punt, punt, punt, downs. The best part is that the Jets defense did this while having to stay on the field for extended drives on little rest (the Jets offense had just three drives lasting over two minutes). Say what you will about their flaws, but the Pats still have one of the best offenses in the league, and the Jets shut them down for an entire game. I want to hug Rex Ryan.

- And just in case you’re thinking I’m not going to heap excessive praise on my boy El Guapo, Mark Sanchez looked equally brilliant in the second half. Once Schotty figured out that we have a quarterback who won’t throw the game away, Sanchez had a second half where he went 11/17 with a TD and a 148 yards (should have been 2 TDs…Chansi Stuckey…). The TD drive was a blistering 56 yard aerial assault taking just over a minute and utilizing both of our top receivers (Cotchery and Keller). Still, the smartest play of the game may have come with 2:35 left in the game on 3rd and 3. With the Patriots having no timeouts left, Sanchez saw a play break down and simply fell to take the sack rather than trying to force a pass or create an unnecessary dangerous play with his feet. Clock runs down to 2 minutes, and all of a sudden the Pats offense is not only heavily pressured, but also rushed due to time constraints. Probably 75% of the QBs in the league force a pass there (certainly Favre would have last year). It’s early, but Mark Sanchez is making a strong case for Rookie of the Year.

- On the one hand, Pats fans need to step back from the ledge. This thing could have (and should have) started with an 0-2 hole in two division games, and Welker was sorely missed in the Jets game. On the other hand, you have to be concerned that maybe another passing target isn’t what the Pats need right now. The Pats ran just 19 planned rushes (compared to 29 by the Jets), and had the ball for a significantly longer period of time in the first half, when they had the lead. At a certain point the Pats will need to figure out ways for their high power offense to show more of a ground game, both to keep defenses from wailing on Brady and to keep what is proving to be a sub par defensive secondary off of the field (Richard Seymour masked more of those flaws than anyone in Boston wants to admit). Still a team to be reckoned with, but Belichick’s squad has always relied on its versatility on both sides of the ball, and although the talent level is still high, everything feels much more predictable.

- I don’t want to alarm anybody (I always want to alarm everybody), but what the hell is going on with the Giants defense? With over 600 yards of offense given up in the first two weeks (272 of them to a shaky, confused Redskins team), losing Justin Tuck for any amount of time has to have fans of this team concerned. They’ve looked like the best team in the league so far, but the fact that it’s been due to a surprisingly versatile offense is cause for concern, as there are too many high power offenses in the league for the Giants to rely on winning shootouts.

- Meanwhile, the Cowboys defense just looks lost. Mario Manningham brutalized Terrance Newman, and he’s the best part of the entire secondary. Considering that the Giants are on the lesser end of the passing offenses this team will face (remember that the Bucs had them reeling for most of the game in week one), I’m prepared to say this team won’t be a factor come the postseason, particularly if the Eagles can get their offensive mojo back.

- I’m segue city today. The Eagles proved on Sunday that they live and die by Donovan McNabb, and it has everything to do with pacing. With Donovan in there, that game turns into an interesting shootout, one in which the Eagles are better equipped to maintain drives and distribute the ball to their myriad receivers. With Kolb (who has to have proven he isn’t the guy by now), the Eagles give offenses too many chances to figure out their defense, which is going to be a problem against solid pass games. Yes, Drew Brees can do that to anybody, but Tony Romo and Eli Manning aren’t exactly slouches, and they’ll each get two shots at this team as the season progresses. It’s going to be up to the Eagles offense to find ways to sustain drives and keep them off of the field.

- Also, if you missed it, Jason Whitlock made an excellent point regarding race and the response to McNabb’s injury as opposed to Brady’s last year.

- Meanwhile, the Saints could not be nastier right now. Brees managed to hit 9 receivers, four of them for more than 40 yards. Don’t sleep on the defense either. Under Gregg Williams, a unit that had no presence last year is at least forcing teams to get rid of the ball faster (thanks to a significantly improved pass rush), which, as we saw in the 2007 Giants, can make all the difference.

- Marques Colston is going to deserve consideration as a top flight receiver (think Megatron, Moss, and The Woefully Nickname-less Andre Johnson) when this season is done. Without Brees, he’s not quite as special, but without Colston, Brees has a much harder time finding mismatches in the end zone. He’s all alone in the second tier right now (above Bowe and co., below the top three), and that’s changing soon.

- Speaking of top flight receivers, The Woefully Nickname-less Andre Johnson proved he’s a killer against Tennessee, but nothing has changed in my stance on Matt Schaub. I said after last week’s blowout that Schaub has all the tools to be a top tier NFL quarterback, and he showed those tools in this game, but he still hasn’t shown an ability to shake off tough pressure and still take command of his skill set. Tennessee didn’t get to him at all (0 sacks, almost no hits), and if he thinks that’s going to happen consistently, especially with future opponents having seen what he does when given room and time to operate ideally, particularly behind an average Texans O-Line, he’s crazy. Sunday was a great showing of potential, but if a team ever needed to get a little dirt under their fingernails, it’s the Texans.

- I said Albert Haynesworth was worth at least two wins per season, and it’s looking like I may have underestimated that total. Without him, the Redskins lose on Sunday. With him, the Titans are probably 2-0.

- Carson Palmer has been saying all season that someone is going to die at QB in the NFL (we get it, Carson; you’re still upset about 2005). Spoiler alert: It’s Jason Campbell. Defenses have time to make their first move, miss, regroup, make a second move, and then figure out a whole new way to hit him before he’s found the read he wants. I feel like I’m watching Final Destination every time he drops back.

- Donnie Avery is going to be the biggest disappointment of the year for me. I can feel it. He’s not getting the same separation he did last year, and he’s honestly as responsible as anyone for the lack of offensive stretch that is limiting Steven Jackson.

- Also, I’m one more good game away from starting a FREE STEVEN JACKSON campaign.

- If I’m working on a big case, one that I’ve been working on all year, and all of a sudden I get incredibly sick to the point where I need to be replaced, it would be utterly retarded to imagine that my replacement would be ready to go within 1 hour of my exit, right? Seneca Wallace will be just fine. Hell, if Burleson can hold onto a pass that a downfield WR is supposed to make, Wallace finishes with a clean game, and probably keeps them within shooting distance. Look at last year’s performance with a decimated receiving corps after Hassy left. An 87 passer rating with 11 TDs and 3 INTs, and that’s with Koren Robinson as the top target. If anything, Seneca Wallace was the originator of John Carlson’s emergence last season. As long as the defense can do a better job in the middle (256 rushing yards proves that the LB corps, which lost both Hill and Tatupu, isn’t just the best part of the defense but the ENTIRE defensive core), this team isn’t going to suffer greatly by losing their aging, injury prone QB. He was my least favorite part of the potentially fascinating Seattle offense anyway. FREE SENECA WALLACE.

- How nasty is Frank Gore right now? We all knew that the new coaching staff would work in his favor, but I don’t think anybody knew how good he’d be with a run-first coach. Gore’s unique ability to make incredibly minor adjustments that capitalize on defensive holes in major ways fits Singletary’s proposed “punch in the mouth” offense perfectly. If Bruce and Vernon Davis keep defenses honest, Gore could be the engine of a very frightening 49ers offense.

- Keeping defenses honest is exactly what David Garrard can’t seem to do in Jacksonville. Against a high powered offense, nobody needed or wanted Garrard to get into a showdown with a Cardinals pass attack that had been managed by the 49ers the week before thanks to efficient drives (49ers won the clock battle by about 3 minutes, and had 7 of their 13 drives last over 2 minutes, including a 7:28 beauty resulting in a go-ahead TD in the fourth quarter). The sad fact is that Jack Del Rio’s “right way” mentality has finally left his quarterback without a soul to catch a pass, as Matt Jones and Reggie Williams, even on their worst days, had the size to bail Garrard out on intermediate passing plays (not to mention their tragically underutilized speed that will forever leave Jacksonville as the most disappointing offensive team of the past five years). Now Garrard has nobody, and MJD needs defenders to have at least some focus elsewhere for his size not to become a liability. Garrard’s 23/43 stat line is all the evidence you need to see that Jacksonville has lost any semblance of the singularity of focus (run, run, and then strike deep to take advantage of the running) that made them great in 2007.

- Meanwhile, someone needs to tell the little Fitzgerald that the Cardinals are adding a desperately needed short game that utilizes their running backs. We all know they can hit Fitzgerald deep with 2-3 guys covering him, but getting a (quasi)ground game going means they won’t always HAVE to do that.

- True story, if Eric Mangini coached the Cardinals, they would have at least 10 targets for Fitzgerald of over 40 yards next game. I hate that guy. His bizarre decision to send Kellen Winslow packing has left the Browns with exactly one receiving target, which is the kiss of death for a young quarterback trying to find a comfort zone. Don’t believe me? Watch Quinn try to force the ball into coverage to find Edwards and tell me he’s got another option. The only other receiver with as many targets was Josh Cribbs, who is a great return man but a fourth string receiver at best. For a QB who is always going to be better with intermediates, dropping an elite pass catching TE for peanuts set the franchise back three years from where they already were. Oh, and Winslow could block better the bulk of that O-Line. But at least you got a defensive coach…who has now given up over 25 points in two straight games. Why is this guy still coaching anywhere?

- Repeat after me: The Broncos are not a bad team. For one thing, they’re on top of the division after two weeks. For another, their offense showed marked improvement from the first week debacle in Cincy. McDaniels has figured out how to blend Denver’s stockpile of good to very good backs with his pass-heavy mentality, and Kyle Orton threw a clean game with over 7 yards per attempt and a wide distribution of the football. It’s the 2008 Matt Cassel experience all over again, except with a less flashy but more consistent player under center, and the man who was behind that offense is still running the show.

- The 2009 Matt Cassel experience is less interesting, but I’m loathe to blame Cassel for that. The fact is that the Chiefs still only have one proven receiver in a pass-first offense, and Cassel is still very, very green as a starter, particularly outside of the friendly confines of Foxborough. That said, those interceptions were ugly mistakes created by a lack of good targets (that last INT should get Dantrell Savage cut…I hate when receivers are the driving force behind INTS instead of the best protection against them). Haley would be wise to find ways to get a short to intermediate game established, because that will be the key to maximizing Cassel’s potential in KC.

- There could not be a worse game on television than that Chiefs-Raiders game. I could not invent it. But it proves that the Oakland defense is as tough as they looked in week 1. For Russell to go 7 of 24 and the running game to average just over 3 yards per carry, leaving the Chiefs with nearly 40 minutes of possession, and the Raiders to still win that game 13-10 is not just good; it’s incredible. If JaMarcus Russell ever reaches his potential, he’ll have his defensive unit to thank in large part for it.

- And now for my credibility killing moment of the week: I believe in JaMarcus Russell more after these past two weeks, not less. His accuracy needs improvement (also, water is quite wet), but he’s managed to march his offense down the field when it counts (the Raiders got SCREWED by the TD reversal in week one), and is at least a little less flustered than he’s looked in the past. You just saw the nadir of his season, and he still led a game winning drive in the fourth quarter. Can anyone say they see the same upside in Brady Quinn?

- That said, NFL.com’s “JaMarcus Russell Highlights” clip from week 2 seems a bit unnecessary.

- I also believe in the Bengals defense, particularly after their stellar 6 sack effort against Green Bay in which they allowed only 46 yards to Ryan Grant on 14 carries. The real test for a Cincy squad that finally seems to be taking advantage of their talented youth on defense will be whether or not a veteran offense can avoid costly turnovers (the Packers turned two Bengals turnovers into 14 points). Running a flanker focused attack with a second receiver as talented as Laveranues Coles and a slot man as capable as Chris Henry is the epitome of self-defeating, particularly with Cedric Benson turning into the anti-Cedric Benson (29 carries for 141 yards…he was right, he DOES run better when absolutely nobody threatens his job). Palmer may no longer be the calm, poised deep threat he once was (the 2 INTs were examples of the panicky Palmer that tries to force bad decisions), but the 3 TDs were proof that Palmer still has one of the best arms in the league.

- There really is very little left to believe in for Detroit fans. That defense looks abysmal, and losing Ernie Sims should guarantee that teams will still have all day to make plays against a very, very questionable secondary (Delmas has promise, but he’s not going to be enough to turn an awful backfield around). Worse still, Stafford’s interceptions were of the variety that display a lack of field vision, with defenders easily between him and his receivers. That said, it was good to see Matt Stafford find both the end zone and TE Brandon Pettigrew (4 rec, 40 yards). The real frustration is that the 24 carries against a Minny defense famous for killing run games are reflective of a team still playing not to lose, which is a shame considering that this year was supposed to show there was nothing left to lose (see: 2008 Falcons). Let Stafford throw, and let him know that whatever happens he’s the guy, and then see if he can’t develop chemistry with a receiving corps that absolutely must become great.

- If you want to say the Falcons are a boring, successful team, you can, but since when did an offense that, in addition to the Michael Turner brutality we saw last year, tears through the sky (Gonzalez and Roddy White each had at least 6 receptions, 50 yards, and 1 TD) become boring? Matt Ryan also managed a ridiculous 21/27 with an 8.1 average YPA and 3 TDs. I’ve been saying they’re the team to beat in the NFC, and I am as convinced as ever. There isn’t a weak spot on offense, and the coverage schemes have proven effective and athletic enough so far to make up for a sub par pass rush.

- Also, don’t sleep, but of the top 10 QB ratings, Matt Ryan is third, he is tied for the second most TDs at 5 (and has one fewer interception than Flacco), and has looked absolutely unflappable against two solid pass rushes. He looks like some sort of unperfected hybrid of Peyton’s physical presence and Brady’s demeanor. If that sounds like Hyperbole, it’s only because we haven’t seen a full season of Ryan with the array of offensive weapons he has at his disposal now. Get ready for Ryan to enter a stratosphere it took Brady, Brees, and Manning a longer time to reach.

- Honestly, the saddest part of the Jake Delhomme saga is that we’ve gotten to the point where going 25/41, throwing 1 TD and 1 INT is acceptable for an 11 year veteran to maintain his starting position on a former division champ. Fire. Everybody. Everybody.

- Told you so about the Ravens offense.

- I really can’t figure out this San Diego team. Granted, they are clearly a more dangerous team with Sproles on the field, but that run on 4th and 2 was stupid, particularly against a surprisingly soft Ravens secondary, particularly with the size the Chargers have in their receiving corps, particularly with Philip Rivers at QB. Even more disheartening is a pass rush that isn’t bothering opposing quarterbacks, even against the porous Raiders O-Line in week 1. There’s a ton of firepower here, but I’m not sure these guys will ever figure out how to use it, particularly now that Tomlinson has lost his fastball.

- I feel better about Jay Cutler on the Bears now that he’s distributing the ball a little more evenly (5 receivers with 6 targets or more). Without a true number one like he had in Denver, that kind of distribution is the only way he’ll be able to make the most of his incredible talents.

- 3 receptions, 52 yards, 1 TD. Also, Lee Evans had a 32 yard TD. But yeah, TO is probably the worst thing to ever happen to Trent Edwards, who had a 97.5 QB rating and is a top 5 QB through two weeks.

- As for the Monday night game, I don’t understand all the whining about the 2 minute offense employed by the Dolphins. The fact that they were still losing that game despite the Colts having had the ball for about 15 minutes is evidence of what the priority of the drive needed to be: Score, but score leaving as little time as possible. The Fins dropped 3 sure touchdowns thanks to their lackluster receiving corps, which we already knew about and makes the unemployment of Matt Jones and Reggie Williams that much crazier. I have never and will never understand the fascination in Miami with Anthony Fasano, who has been a total negative for his team so far, and JaMarcus Russell could go 0/24 and still be a better pick than Ted Ginn Jr. was for the Fins. Seriously, how much does Parcells hate paying that last remnant of the Cam Cameron era? The fact that there haven’t been subtle digs at his manhood all year from press conferences confirms that TO was treated unfairly in Dallas. Ted Ginn Jr. is the best defensive back the Dolphins have. Sorry, but you know how I feel about receivers who kill QBs I like.

The Ones That Matter – Week 2

2009-09-19T14:36:00.005-04:00

Ravens at Chargers (4:15 PM)

Call me crazy, but I think we saw last week that we’re dealing with a completely new vision for the Ravens, one that has them embracing the thrills that Joe Flacco was built to bring. Act like you’re not excited for an offense with Joe Flacco and Ray Rice lighting fire to the grass. Meanwhile, I have no clue what the hell we’re dealing with regarding the Chargers. Certainly, this squad still performs like an incomplete team, getting picked on in the secondary and exposing Philip Rivers to too much pressure for their offense to click. Still, there’s no denying that, when the game was on the line on Monday, this offense functioned on a level matched only by a much more experienced Patriots squad. If that continues to develop, it may not matter what sort of secondary weaknesses this team has; they’ll score too many points for it to matter.

Raiders at Chiefs (1:00 PM)

Yes, I realize I’m probably the only person who has this game on a must-watch list. Still, I can’t be the only one who watched the Raiders play last week and wondered whether or not this defense, thanks to the addition of Richard Seymour, became sneaky great all of a sudden. Combine that with the tantalizing possibility of JaMarcus Russell’s maturation, and I’ll be watching at least one more week to see if this might be the real dark horse for playoff contention in the AFC.

Saints at Eagles (1:00 PM)

But only if McNabb is healthy. A shootout in which Kevin Kolb is holding a pistol sounds more like a firing range to me.

Seahawks at 49ers (4:05 PM)

Forget everything you heard: The NFC West could be the most fun-to-watch division in football. The Cardinals proved last season that grace and flair can still win big. Meanwhile, the Seahawks still have the offense that is most interesting to me thanks to its reliance on both flights of fancy and discarded veterans (Nate Burleson is going to haunt the dreams of those who drafted Housh in fantasy leagues, myself included). The wild card for all of this to work, then, is the 49ers, who last week proved that Mike Singletary’s stubborn, angry clinging to the tenets upon which the league was built is a heartbeat that can sustain, not a distraction. With the Cardinals and Seahawks both using flashy names and aerial trickery to make names for themselves, the division needs the 49ers to succeed, if only to act as a foil to the divisional matchups and give the NFC west credibility as more than a sideshow. This game will go a long way toward showing whether this division is an island unto itself or an exotic locale on the global landscape of the NFL.

Patriots at Jets (1:00 PM)

Readers of TiT (and if you’re still here, kudos to you for sticking with this erratic behavior for three long years) know that I love the Jets and despise the Patriots. My hate for the Pats has been detailed on this blog too many times to properly express here, but suffice to say that I hate them for their soulless identity, and the perfection with which their dispassionate scheme is executed on the field. It’s underhanded tactics (the support of Randy Moss’s poor work ethic, the condoning of Rodney Harrison’s existence) masquerading as the “right way” for the league. It’s a perfect hatred, really, founded in equal parts of respect and (I’m not alone in this; the thrill surrounding the Brady injury revealed what everyone who didn’t live in New England really thought).

So I’m thrilled to see the bloodless coaching of Eric Mangini replaced by Rex Ryan. In the end, the only way the Jets were ever going to beat the Pats wasn’t by imitating the “right way,” but instead by embracing the wrong way. I’m happy that Tom Brady is back under center, because Rex Ryan is going to see to it that he gets hit, whether or not he’s completing passes. I’m glad that Kerry Rhodes is talking, and while we’re at it: No, Anthony Smith is not a relevant example. Anthony Smith was a kid running his mouth; Kerry Rhodes has beaten Brady before, and can do it again. To beat this team, you either execute their plan better than they do (practically impossible over the last decade) or you create a plan that is so mean, so angry, and so fueled by passion that the wheels of their finely tuned machine come right off. When the Patriots were the evil empire, stomping around and winning by any means necessary, I was enthralled by this rivalry. Now that I’m rooting for the swaggering bully in this matchup, I have to say that it’s fun to be the bad guy.

Monday Hangover: 9-15-2009

2009-09-15T15:43:00.004-04:00

I’m already late, so welcome back to the Hangover that lasted so bad that it came out on Tuesday. Enjoy…

- Did you see my boy El Guapo under center for the Jets yesterday? If you had told me that Mark Sanchez would commit only one costly error on the day for his entire first career start, I’d have been thrilled. If you’d told me that he’d have a throwing touchdown, I’d have been even happier. If you’d told me that he would look relaxed, make throws on the move (showing a remarkable ability to hit receivers while under pressure and off balance), and effectively compliment the stellar defense and the grinding, wear-you-down run game en route to a stomping of a talented Texans squad, I wouldn’t have believed you. Consider my disbelief suspended. We’re officially on pace for 16-0, and El Guapo could wind up being be the steal of the draft at the fifth pick.

- On the same note, kudos to Brian Schottenheimer for figuring out how to turn four solid pass catchers into a varied, unpredictable receiving corps. Dustin Keller, Jericho Cotchery, Chansi Stuckey, and Neon Leon put up 18 receptions, with each catching at least four passes, and the three receivers (not RB Washington) gaining at least 60 yards a piece. Mark my words: It’s tougher to cover three solid receivers on an offense that distributes the ball evenly than it is to cover one, or even two stellar receivers.

- After watching Matt Schaub’s performance for the Texans, I went back to watch an episode of “House” where Foreman got “the yips”. It applies here. Matt Schaub has all of the physical and mental tools to be a great quarterback. The problem is that he’s been hurt twice over his tenure as the Texans quarterback, and both injuries resulted from the kind of questionable hits that happen when teams are devoted to intimidating a pocket passer. Yesterday, as soon as Schaub took one solid hit, his entire game fell apart, and unless he has a game that proves he hasn’t got the yips, he’ll lose his job to Rex Grossman by week eight. The booing fans know it, and worse still, Schaub knows it.

- The Titans will be just fine, despite a heartbreaking loss to the Steelers. First, there is no way Rob Bironas is blowing two kicks like that in another game, and either one wins it for the Titans in regulation. Second, the team appears to finally have found its much needed deep threat in Kenny Britt, giving them a mismatch nightmare for smaller defensive backfields (Britt stands 6’3”, and equally dangerous Justin Gage stands 6’4”). If everything works out, the Titans may have a fascinating “power receiving” game to compliment their brutal ground attack. After watching the rest of the division, this is still the team to beat in the AFC South.

- John Fox, described Jake Delhomme’s job security as “probably like the security of all of us.” I am officially building a panic room in my studio apartment. I’m pretty sure Fox just inadvertently raised the threat level.

- The McNabb injury is the worst thing that could happen to both the Eagles and Donovan McNabb. For the Eagles, it takes a Super Bowl contender and turns them into an also ran in what is shaping up to be a very, very difficult division. For McNabb, this means that the potential for discord surrounding his position begins starting next week, when former usurper Kevin Kolb likely gets the nod. Then, in week three, former Pro Bowl QB and comeback story of the year Michael Vick returns. Oh, and they just signed Jeff Garcia to fill the gap, coming off of two playoff seasons in his last two stints as a starting QB (Tampa Bay and the same Eagles to which he now returns). All of this means that unless McNabb returns in top form, and it seems unlikely that he will with this injury, he’s going to be holding off three rivals for his position in a year when most people believe that the passing game should dominate opponents. No way that ends poorly, right?

- I’m not prepared to say that the Dolphins were a fluke last year. What I will say is that considering how every other AFC East team has made at least one big change to make their teams significantly better than last year (yes, TO and the no-huddle offense count for the Bills), I wouldn’t be surprised if this team went from AFC East champs to worst in the division this year.

- Also, I’m prepared to pick the Falcons as my team to beat in the NFC. Strong running game, QB that takes advantage of defensive mismatches, an elite downfield threat, an emerging possession receiver (Michael Jenkins had 4 catches for 41 yards), and now a TE who is as good a pass catcher as any in the league make this offense as imposing as anyone they’ll see. If the defense continues to look as solid as it did, I’m not sure who is going to stun this team come December.

- Say what you will about that Broncos-Bengals finish, but the real culprit may not be luck, but instead the same kind of personnel stupidity that has crushed Cincy in the past. If safety Roy Williams is playing with the ball in front of him, like he should, instead of going for a largely unnecessary big hit on a receiver who was no longer a threat to catch the tipped pass, then he’s in position to stop Stokely in the middle of the field, and Kyle Orton has to quickly engineer a pass play after almost being picked off twice. That’s the same kind of idiotic, showy-but-stupid style that got Williams booted from the Cowboys, and somehow the Bengals thought he’d be the solution for their defensive woes. Forgive me if I’m less than sympathetic to that finish.

- You have to wonder if Eric Mangini doesn’t see even a shred of irony in losing to a team that has a solid running game, unspectacular receivers, and only asked Brett Favre to throw 21 passes while allowing their top flight ground game to carry the ball 32 times en route to controlling the ball for over 33 minutes. Excuse me while I replace the computer monitor I just punched repeatedly.

- Stop dumping on Brady Quinn, everybody. It was his first game as the official starter, and he has literally one receiver who can stretch defenses (and he hit him for what could have been a TD if Edwards’s feet and hands could both be coordinated at the same time). Throw in the fact that you’re playing from behind against an offense that is dominating the clock, and it’s not exactly the fairest sample to run with. He’ll get better as the season progresses, assuming Mangini doesn’t waffle on him like he did on Handsome Chad.

- I don’t care that you didn’t throw an INT, David Garrard; a 4.4 YPA average is as bad as anything not produced by Jake Delhomme. Maybe adding two washed up former first round picks wasn’t the answer to this team’s aerial woes last year, but it’s starting to look like getting rid of both Matt Jones and Reggie Williams, particularly after Jones had his best year as a pro, is what slams the door shut on this team finishing last in the AFC South.

- Without Anthony Gonzalez, the Colts are a possession receiver away from being able to hang with the elite teams in the AFC. They may have that target in Pierre Garcon, but for now I’m holding off on this being another surefire playoff season.

- Somewhere, Joey Harrington watched that Lions game and cried for Matt Stafford, whose defense forced him into a vertical shootout, and whose most reliable receiver (thanks to Megatron being blanketed all day) was running back Kevin Smith. Furthermore, first round pick TE Brandon Pettigrew didn’t get involved all day. Throw in a predictable offense (targeting Calvin Johnson 13 times is going to wind up getting a QB intercepted 3 times) and you’ve got all the ingredients for a confidence crusher heading into Minnesota. The shame is that, much like Harrington, I really like Stafford’s physical skill set, but if he’s forced into making bad decisions for the sake of saving a team that’s falling apart around him, he’s headed for a similar career trajectory.

- While I’ve never been a fan of the “addition by subtraction” mentality, the play of the Cowboys receivers on Sunday makes me wonder whether or not that team may be better off without former star WR Terrell Owens. Patrick Crayton got free for 4 catches and 135 yards (for a stupid 33.8 average per catch), Roy Williams looks capable of filling in a the number one wideout, and Miles Austin looked like a man possessed now that he’s finally got some playing time. If Romo really is able to distribute passes more freely, it’s hard not to like this offense better than any offense Dallas has shown up tot his point.

- That said, you can’t possibly be happy with a Dallas defense that let a mediocre Bucs offense (despite a snappy ground game and a finally emerging Michael Clayton) light them up for 21 points in addition to 174 yards on the ground. At some point, these guys are going to run into much stiffer NFC East defenses, and that won’t cut it against rushing offenses that are arguably better than anything they saw against the Bucs.

- One more note, Cadillac Williams is officially my favorite story of the season. He could blow his knee out next week, and he still deserves the comeback player of the year award after what he’s been through to come back like he did on Sunday.

- I don’t care if you won; Brody Croyle did that to you, Baltimore. You’ve brought the terms “quarterback controversy” and “Brody Croyle” together. Shame. On. You.

- I still loved what the Ravens did through the air, allowing Flacco to take advantage of holes in the KC secondary. This team finally seems ready to embrace its potential as a varied aerial offense. Now if they can find a way to do that without forgetting what made them great in the past (brutal defense, solid special teams, and a blistering run attack), this team could be one of the scariest in the AFC. Granted, that’s going to be like watching a man balance dishes on sticks, but since when was greatness supposed to be easy. Considering how bad the Steelers O-Line looked, don’t sleep on this being Baltimore’s year to take the division.

- Wow Jason Campbell loves to hold on to the ball for a long time. I could have raised a family in the time that he gave Osi Umenyiora to strip that fumble return for a TD. I thought Zorn was supposed to be installing a West Coast offense, with quick passes and multiple targets and such. Unless there are 4-5 plays with approximately 700 reads to go through, Campbell is doing something very wrong.

- Speaking of which, how can a team have that many receiving threats, including one of the better pass catching backs in the league, and still target Antwaan Randle El, Chris Cooley, and Alligator Arms Moss 22 times out of 26 attempts? Weak sauce, formerly exciting Redskins pass attack.

- Yes, after 2 INTs and a fumble, I do regret thinking the Kurt Warner led Cardinals weren’t in for a letdown. Still, that 49ers defense was much tougher than they got credit for last season, and if Vernon Davis has finally emerged as a legitimate receiving threat (5 catches for 40 yards is a good sign), then maybe what we need to take away from that game is that the NFC West is better than it has been in the last five years. The Cards still have a ton of talent on both sides of the ball, but the 49ers seem to have finally gotten their offense to catch up to their rapidly toughening defense. After all do you want to play a team with an aging but still good WR (Bruce), a top tier RB (Gore), a defensive middle (courtesy of Patrick Willis) that will kill you, and now a TE with the physical skills to stretch the field or kill you in the middle (Davis)? Hooray for bicoastal football!

- I say that with the belief that the Seahawks are for real this year. Despite two early miscues on offense (during a stretch in which Hassy seemed to be DELIBERATELY looking for double and triple coverage), the Seahawks seemed to settle into their attack, spreading the ball around to 8 different receiving targets (three of whom had six catches or more and at least 48 yards), and trusting Julius Jones to clean up when the Rams defense inevitably cheated on pass coverage (Jones lookes as impressive as he’s looked in his career picking up those 117 yards). If John Carlson is the real deal (and there’s no reason to doubt he is) and Deion Branch can either come back soon or be replaced by Deon Butler (and there’s only some reason to doubt he can), this offense looks scary. Meanwhile, the defense pummeled Marc Bulger and Steven Jackson into submission (5.3 YPA through the air, and just 67 yards surrendered on the ground), with the backup LB corps proving just as reliable as the injured starters. I like this team to win the NFC West, and I like them even more in an NFC that is lacking in interesting passing attacks. Most fun division in football. Calling it.

- Oh, and the Rams are not invited to the NFC West cool kids party in the parking lot. Julius Jones will even be smoking cigarettes, because even he’s cool again.

- MONDAY NIGHT BONUS ROUND (or “Zac’s Laziness Tax”):

- Is it just me, or could the Oakland Raiders be the second best team in the AFC West? I knew things were bad, but man. We’re already in a recession; America doesn’t need these guys reminding us how upside down our world has become.

- In all fairness, that defense wasn’t THAT bad last year, and the addition of Richard Seymour makes that front seven significantly more imposing, especially against a shaky division. If Russell can cool it on the picks (and one of those was in garbage time…the real problem is his inability to nail a deep out route), this team could be one of those squads that knocks out some significantly higher rated competition. All I know is that for the first time in a long time, the Raiders looked pissed off to be the raiders last night,

- Meanwhile, there is no competition: The Bills have the most heartbroken fan base. I don’t even know how they still feel. We’re lucky Buffalo isn’t crawling with Anton Chigurh types.

Premature Evaluations 2009: AFC NORTH

2009-09-10T17:51:00.003-04:00

Cincinnati Bengals

This could be the most disappointing year the Bengals ever have. No, last year officially doesn’t count. Ryan Fitzpatrick was never built to throw to an offense of high power receivers, and the Bengals didn’t have a ground game until Cedric Benson flew in to save the day (I’m really surprised word didn’t spellcheck that whole clause). The point is that this team is better than what you saw last year. Just how much better depends on how deep this aerial attack really is. Believe it or not, the Bengals finished in the top half of defensive rankings (12), and a young defensive core building around corner Leon Hall and stud MLB Keith Rivers should continue to improve. The offense, however, needs to show some variety now that Carson Palmer is back to prove that, for the second time, he’s not quite dead yet.

In that sense, losing TJ Houshmandzadeh, the team’s most reliable receiver, might be for the best. Housh was always a number one receiver thrust into the number two slot, which created problems for ball distribution and narrowed the offensive vision (Todd Haley deserves credit for avoiding this problem in Arizona). Meanwhile, his replacement, Laveranues Coles (who is a personal favorite), was born to be the best number two receiver in football (number one speed, number two size and durability, and the grit to make any catch on the field). Chris Henry’s redemption story could very well end with him being the most underrated red zone target in the AFC, and don’t forget the Bengals have Andre Caldwell (underrated speed), Jerome Simpson (like Ochocinco but taller and not crazy) and Chase Coffman (their first true pass catching TE) in development. With all of these targets, it’s up to the coaching staff to effectively use a diversity of targets and Palmer’s cannon of an arm to speed down the field, covering for a lackluster pass blocking line and opening up the middle of the field for Cedric Benson to take advantage. Will it happen? Probably not, but as the rare team with both the receiving targets and elite quarterback to execute a truly stunning pass attack, it would be a shame for us to let the Bengals off of the hook simply because they’re “cursed”.

Cleveland Browns

I’ve said pretty much all I wanted to say on the matter, but this “hidden quarterback” fiasco is just another example of the problem with head coach (and former bane of my existence) Eric Mangini: The identity of the coach should never overwhelm the identity of the team he coaches, but rather should be one of several influences. Mangini doesn’t want us to know the star under center because, to him, only one star really matters, and that’s Eric Mangini.

But still, boo to these guys for getting rid of Kellen Winslow.

Baltimore Ravens

Walk with me for a minute as I tell you why this is not the Ravens team you’ve come to know and be bored by. In his rookie year, on an offense that was unquestionably run-first, and with question marks at receiver and on his offensive line, Joe Flacco finished only seven QB rating points lower than the highly touted Matt Ryan (who throws to top tier receiver Roddy White), with a completion rating just one percent lower (despite attempting only six fewer passes) and a higher YPA average than Donovan McNabb. Fast forward, and Flacco is entering his second year with an undeniably creative offensive coordinator (Cam Cameron’s stint in Miami was unfairly brutal, despite his deserving some blame), a running back that seems poised to have a monster year, and an offensive lineman who may be the best in the draft in Michael Oher. Oh, and don’t forget that just because the Ravens didn’t let Flacco show off his monster skills last season, that doesn’t mean he doesn’t still have them.

PS: Derrick Mason (yawn) would like to remind you (snooze) that he’s possible the most underrated receiver in the league (snore).

All of this is to say that despite being stuck in a division with the league’s best or second best team of the past decade, the Ravens have never backed down as challengers and have as good a chance this year as any to finally beat the Steelers, not by beating them at their own game but by reinventing what we think of when we think of Baltimore. All these years I’ve been calling for the Ravens to FREE TROY SMITH, and that’s essentially been a plea for them to stop imitating the team they want to be and start embracing the equally tough, and perhaps more interesting, team that they could be by combining violence with a little bit of flash. Screw it; trade Troy to a team that will give him a fair shake. FREE JOE FLACCO.

Pittsburgh Steelers

Mike Tomlin is the new Bill Belichick. Inscrutable emotional palate (outside of being displeased)? Check. Brilliant, creative defensive schemes? Check. Willingness to trust his stars on offense to do their jobs without his interference? Check. Super Bowl ring by year two? You get the picture. Hell, in year two of his coaching career he managed to do what took Belichick five years as a head coach to accomplish, not to mention his predecessor, Bill Cowher, taking 13 years to do the same. Basically, Tomlin has constructed a defensive monster in which he can exchange players without great disturbance (remember Joey Porter? Neither does Tomlin), and yet he still has top tier talents playing for him (DE Aaron Smith is the best DE that never gets any press thanks to his 3-4 responsibilities). If all goes according to plan, Tomlin could not only mimick Belichick, but perhaps exceed the heights Darth Foxborough has reached.

But that forecast depends on Tomlin’s offense, as well as its famous, yet perhaps statistically underachieving, signal caller becoming the kind of well oiled machine that can compliment the defense by winning games on its own. The Steelers finished in the bottom half of the league in both passing and rushing yards per game, which simply won’t work in an AFC that welcomes back its offensive jewel (Brady) and may have found its prodigious aerial phenom of the future (Rivers). As such, Roethlisberger, Tomlin, and most importantly offensive coordinator Bruce Arians need to find a way to get their own offensive weapons (specifically Heath Miller, Santonio Holmes, and the underutilized Limas Sweed) involved on a consistent basis. Unlike other teams in their division, the Steelers seem to have found exactly who they need to be to win; now it’s just a matter of making sure their team as a whole allows them to achieve an identity so strongly based on one part of the game.

Premature Evaluations 2009: NFC East

2009-09-09T14:38:00.006-04:00

APOLOGIES FOR THE LACK OF PICTURES, BLOGGER IS BEING STRANGE.

Sometimes, we at TiT make friends. Sometimes, they contribute. Almost never, it's good. Enjoy this from friend of the site and soon to be frequent contributor Julian, a lifelong Giants fan who still thinks that Eli contract is retarded.

To prevent your humble blogger’s obvious Giants bias, I’ve listed the teams in alphabetical order. You can see my predictions at the bottom.

· Cowboys

o The Good

1. Tony Romo healthy. Nobody in the draft cause they got Roy Williams. Trying to make sure Barber stays healthy, the cowboys have the new three-headed beast in the NFC East (rhyming is hard but fun) with Marion Barber, Felix Jones, and Tashard Choice. Earth, Wind, and Fire are out. Step in Moe, Larry, and Curly (admittedly awful nickname, but the BeeGees weren’t doing it for me either).

o The Bad

1. They lost T.O. Is Patrick Crayton or Miles Austin a top 60 WR in the NFL (where you need to be to start for a franchise)? Is Roy Williams as good as T.O.? Is Terrence Newman really your go to shutdown option in the secondary? Can DeMarcus Ware carry an entire defense? The answer to all of these questions is no.

o The Ugly

1. Jason Witten is going to lead this team in receptions and receiving touchdowns as the tight-end. How many years did that work for the Chiefs? The answer is none. Tony Romo is great but he has to throw the ball to someone and the Cowboys have to bulk up on an aging defense that got no real help from the draft. Like so many unions in a recession, the Cowboys sold their future for the good not great Roy Williams. Just because you’re the NFL’s most valuable franchise does not make you a division winner or even a playoff team. Just ask the second most valuable NFL franchise, the Redskins.

· Eagles

o The Good

1. DeSean Jackson is on his way to being the next Steve Smith (the real Steve Smith) and with a much better QB than Smith ever had. Fast as lightning and only in his second year in the league, if he stops making dumb mental errors we could be looking at a perennial pro-bowler in the making. Both are boneheads, but Smith keeps it off the field. Despite all the noise from the some of the worst fans in sports, Donovan McNabb is one of the best QB’s in the league. And the addition of rookie RB and Brian Westbrook clone LeSean McCoy, and monster OT Jason Peters, should really ~~improve the Eagles running game~~ keep Westbrook healthy.

o The Bad

1. The addition of QB Michael Vick. That’s right; I said it. An offense that needs to add a gadget player (which is what Vick will be on team clearly led by Donovan McNabb), is a team that has consistently stunk in short yardage situations. Vick will be good and will contribute, but he can’t dominate the league suspended for 6 games and 10 plays, not touches, a game. Did I mention that Westbrook is injury prone and starting off this season with a pre-banged up ankle?

o The Ugly

1. The death of a football icon would hurt any team. There may have been no more valuable coordinator in the NFL than defensive coordinator Jim Johnson. All those blitzes you see currently taking over the NFL have been in the Eagles playbooks for years. Even the Giants won their 2007 system using Johnson’s system implemented by Steve Spagnolo, a Johnson acolyte and former Eagles coach. Will the Eagles be good? Sure. How will the defense hold up? For better or worse, it will be ugly.

· Giants

o The Good

1. Your Giants fan/humble blogger WAS really pumped about the Giants Defense this season. With the additions of pass rushing specialist and rookie LB Clint Sintim, LB/domestic abuser Michael Boley and DLinemen Rocky Bernard and Chris Canty, I thought the defense was going to be better than 2007. The secondary is actually somewhat experienced and middle-of-the-road with soon to be pro-bowler safety Kenny Philips. That’s all they need to be with a defensive front seven which could break the single season sack record. DE Osi Umenyiora, out the entirety of last season, may be the healthiest one of the bunch. Hampered all preseason by injuries, the depth which was supposed to be the team’s strength is the only thing keeping them alive as a possible division winner. As goes the defense’s health, will go the Giant’s record.

o The Bad

1. Remember what I said about the Cowboys WRs? Do the Giants wish they have someone as good as Roy Williams? The Giants may not have the worst receiving corps in the NFL but are definitely scraping the bottom of the barrel in the NFC East. While Mario Manningham or newly minted Hakeem Nicks may contribute this year, neither is going to become the #1 receiving target almost every team needs to get far in the playoffs.

o The Ugly

1. WR Ramses Barden, the 6’6” colossus rookie from Cal Poly, is on his way to becoming the #1 redzone target for Eli Manning. Until then, it’s the sure-handed but rather slow tight end Kevin Boss. These are the “weapons” defenses will have trouble shutting down in the endzone? While Ahmad Bradshaw should fill in nicely for Derrick Ward, Brandon Jacobs should see more carries this year and probably more injuries. This team will run all over you, and probably keep your QB on the ground. But the Giants were down in the Superbowl until one of the ~~luckiest~~ awesomest catches of all-time by the soon-to-be cut David Tyree and a redzone catch by Plaxico Burress. Who is making those catches this year? Sinorice Moss? Hixon? Steve Smith? Barden? Boss? Manningham? Bueller? Bueller?

· Redskins

o The Good

1. I live with a Redskins fan who will tell you this year is the Skins’ year (don’t they say that every year?). QB Jason Campbell is finally in a stable offense. RB Clinton Portis will be healthier and get some rest with the greater use of Ladell Betts in the backfield. And years of drafting WRs are on the cusp of paying off. This is all slightly true but mostly overblown. What makes this defense significantly better than last year is the addition of DT Albert Haynesworth (the ~~fattest~~ best DT in the league) and rookie DE Brian Orakpo. This in-and-out tandem are going to stuff the run in the backfield and breakdown pockets all year long.

o The Bad and The Ugly

1. These two are the same thing every year for the Redskins. In most other divisions they’d contend for a playoff spot and probably win double digit games (put these guys in the AFC or NFC West and they’re going 12-4 – I’ll bet lunch in the alternate dimension where this takes place and I’m wrong to anyone who builds the time machine to take me there). While always solid enough to hover around .500, this team never has that next level player to take the team on their back and get a playoff spot. Clinton Portis has tried to be that guy and done a fine job. When the Curse of the 30-year-old RB hits him, he’ll unfortunately only be able to look back at a bunch of .500ish seasons. Santana Moss is good and lightning fast, but he’s not special. Neither is Jason “this year is really his year” Campbell. Teams have won with worse QBs, but those teams either could run over teams regularly, which the Skins’ O-Line is not up to, or had a Defense for the ages like the ~~2007 NYGiants~~ 2000 Ravens. The Redskins are good, but not great. Not bad but sort of ugly. I guess that’s what happens when you have one of the worst owners in sports. But at least it’s the second most valuable franchise in the NFL (See Cowboys for an explanation).

· Predictions

o Giants: 11-5 – (For you ATHF fans - GO G-Men!)

o Eagles: 10-6

o Cowboys: 9-7 (I hope punters hit that screen all season long cause that’s what Jerry Jones gets for being Jerry Jones. Ask a Cowboys fan; they’ll admit he’s kind of a dick)

o Redskins: 7-8-1 (The Skins are both good and bad enough to tie in a game this year).

Premature Evaluations 2009: NFC WEST

2009-09-08T10:22:00.006-04:00

In an effort to get ready before season three of Throwing Into Traffic (the charm!), we'll be going division by division with Premature Evals. Here, we tackle the NFC West. Enjoy.

St. Louis Rams

I mentioned this before, but if there’s any team that will test the importance of the quarterback position it’s the Rams. Loaded to the gills with quality, borderline elite playmakers on offense, and boasting a defensive front that should be disruptive at worst and nightmarish at best, the team still has a glaring hold at signal caller, with Marc Bulger still grasping at the smoke and mirrors that used to be 2006. Still, at least he robbed the franchise for $62.5 million at the end of that year. In case you didn’t realize, I’m not enthralled by the Bulger Reclamation Project.

What does intrigue me, if only cautiously, is the presence of Kyle Boller on the sidelines. Despite being tossed aside by the Ravens, Boller has a physical skill set that makes Bulger’s look laughable, and with the offensive firepower the Rams already have around him (Avery will be back sooner than expected, Keenan Burton is a legitimate possession receiver, Randy McMichael is a gritty TE who can catch, and Steven Jackson is one healthy season away from reminding us that he was a versatile back before being a versatile back was cool). What the team needs is a game manager (cue yawns), and yet they’ve managed to leave themselves with a choice between a rookie (Keith Null), an incompetent victim of the yips who had two good years, and an incompetent backup with mutant strength. All things being equal, is it that crazy to give the ball to the guy with the physical gifts to reach all points, let Steven Jackson run the show, and see if Donnie Avery can’t get the jump on defenses one or two times a game? If the potential for failure is always there, shouldn’t spectacular failure be more palatable than the slow suffocation of Marc Bulger doing just enough to lose with good form?

And I just endorsed Kyle Boller. So much for plans of a happy return.

San Francisco 49ers

As much as I dislike the “hard nosed” football stereotype that Mike Singletary has preached from day one, his presence on the sidelines gives the 49ers something they haven’t had since Mike Nolan took over: A clear identity. Where most franchises attempt to make coaching hires that fill the perceived gaps on their team, Singletary seems to take everything the 49ers already do well and push them into either perfection or absurdity, depending on how it all plays out. Singletary wants to be run-first, and Frank Gore gives him the ability to do that with a surprising degree of burst and unpredictability (not to mention the promise that Glen Coffee has shown in a small sample size. Singletary’s defensive mindset should also emphasize the progress of a defense that was surprisingly stout against the run (13th in the league). Don’t even get me started on what this means for the continued development of LB Patrick Willis, who plays with an angry, hyperactive motor that is reminiscent of Singletary himself. Certainly, if the goal of any coaching staff is to make that which is good about a team great, Singletary would appear to be an inspired choice.

But what worries me is that the 49ers may be leaving behind some real talent simply because it doesn’t fit “the plan,” making Singletary’s plan not so much a fully realized identity than it is a narrow worldview. Alex Smith, now two years removed from a promising showing at QB, is all but buried behind the completely uninspired Shaun Hill. More importantly, the team, largely due to former offensive coordinator Mike Martz, has wasted the promise of Vernon Davis, who still has one of the most breathtaking athletic skill sets of any TE in the league. Emphasizing that which is good is, well, good, but not if it fails to see that there is good to be found where it has not yet been explicitly realized. Whether or not Singletary is willing to take that risk will determine whether or not this is another lost season for a franchise that once looked primed to make the leap back into relevance.

All that said, I’m proud of Singletary for taking a chance on rookie QB Nate Davis, who could calm my fears about Singletary and wind up being the anti-Alex Smith for all the right reasons (as well as some ironic wrong ones).

Seattle Seahawks

My “grizzled vets in need of redemption” radar was going crazy before the acquisition of RB Edgerrin James. At this point, I might be the only person outside of the Pacific Northwest making a point of watching Seahawks games. Housh finally free of the role of Ochocinco’s straight man? Julius Jones with Edge breathing down his neck? Deion Branch, a former Super Bowl MVP and once deemed worth trading a first round draft pick, fighting for his very career after surviving offseason rumors of being cut? Hell, I’m even pulling for Matt Hasselbeck, the perfect distributor for this varied aerial attack and a man who has legitimately seen both his health and legitimate achievements (ok, Super Bowl XL was a screwjob) stolen from him , to return to form (though we should never forget, FREE SENECA WALLACE). We’ve seen how a team of talented individuals, pushed to the brink of being scrapped, can respond with firepower once unseen (see: 2007 Giants). If you think the same thing can’t happen in a significantly weaker division, I’m not sure what to tell you. Enjoy your east coast bias at your own peril.

Perhaps most intriguing here is the mix of rough edged, gritty youth and veteran desperation. John Carlson, the best offensive rookie you never heard of last year, gives the aging bookends of the pass offense the freedom to find matchups by remaining a constant threat in the middle of the field. Angry DE Patrick Kerney and his 11 years experience are flanked by ends with no more than three years of experience and plenty of youthful physicality. Better still, the LB tandem of Leroy Hill and Lofa Tatupu now faces the pleasant dilemma of working rookie Aaron Curry, easily the draft’s most thrilling physical specimen and most solid all around defender, into an already frightening defensive scheme.

Certainly, there are huge question marks on this team (the pass rush, a leaky secondary, and the comedy routine of Julius Jones and Edge leap to mind), but none of that negates the genuine excitement I feel for a team whose need to succeed HERE and NOW is palpable. Besides, I seem to remember another team with a weak run game and pass defense but a dynamic pass attack and plenty of defensive athleticism doing pretty well last year…and they happened to have Edge on their roster, too.

Arizona Cardinals

Which brings us to the one team everyone thinks was a fluke. News flash: Kurt Warner was always really, really good, as was Larry Fitzgerald, as was Anquan Boldin, as was Darnell Dockett…and the list goes on. This team, and the undeniably talented individuals that compose it, were knocking on the door before last year’s stunning NFC Championship, and considering that many of the key pieces are still in place, I’m not sure why everyone is so certain they can’t once again air raid everyone to death. Hell, considering how spry Beanie Wells has looked, they may have even added a new dimension to one of the most formidable offenses in the league (second best in passing). Add to that a year of maturity to a young, athletic defense (Rodgers-Cromartie and Calais Campbell both showed potential to be great players on a defense that should be better under new management), and the only question appears to be the pink elephant that has been in the room even since last year: How long can a 38 year old who relies on quick reflexes possibly stay healthy, and what happens when he inevitably needs to take a few games off, or even retire?

So much depends, then, on whether or not Kurt Warner can hold up…or perhaps more realistically, on whether or not Matt Leinart believes this can still be his team. When he first arrived in 2006, Leinart was a cement footed rookie inheriting a team with no clear plan to succeed (the contribution of Whisenhunt to the team’s decision to focus on their strengths as a means of overcoming their weaknesses can’t be overemphasized). Collapsing under the weight of his own hype and unfair expectations, Leinart inevitably lost the QB competition to a well worn Kurt Warner, who was much better suited to thriving amid low expectations and has a quick release that more than compensated for similarly slow feet. But age is age, and sooner or later Warner is going to break down. If he were to suffer even a minor injury this year, Leinart could easily find himself carrying the Cardinals for a short, but important stretch. In a league where initial failure is usually the only failure you ever get a chance to show, Leinart is (either this year or in the near future) going to be asked to buck the system for the evaluation of offensive starters. Whether he embraces the freedom that such failure offers and sees that there is nothing left to fear, or lets it become his albatross will make all the difference as to whether last year was the arrival of prophetic vision or a fever dream.

Premature Evaluations 2009: Cleveland Browns

2009-07-13T13:34:00.003-04:00

You can't eat dreams, I suppose. Still, there's something sad about Eric Mangini, one of my least favorite coaches thanks to his rigid approach to defensive schemes and a knack for avoiding big risks regardless of the context, taking over a team with the potential for greatness. Make no mistake about it: 2007 proved that the Browns had all the tools for an elite offense, one that attacked on all three levels. That dream is now dead. Certainly, some could argue it died last year (although personally I blame the stubborn refusal to put Quinn in earlier), but once Mangini came to town, you knew that at least one of the infamous trio of Braylon, Kellen, and Jamal would leave town. Oh, and color me completely unsurprised that the short straw went to Kellen Winslow, the most outspoken (never mind that he was also the most useful and generally the most reliable) of the three. That's the Mangini way; you come in with a lot of hype, make one big, splashy change, and then everyone smiles and talks about how it's a new era for their team.

Except addition by subtraction is almost always just subtraction with a good PR campaign. Winslow was the second leading receiver in both catches and yardage despite missing seven games and dealing with health issues all year. Can anyone make a case for why losing that kind of talent is a good thing? Couldn't Brady Quinn, in what will likely be his first year as a starter, use a reliable intermediate target? Yes, he thinks he's the greatest player to ever play on the field; so does every other elite receiver that doesn't play for the Colts in the league. Here's a problem that the Browns might want to deal with instead of the attitude issue that isn't an issue: Who's going to do the dirty work on offense with Winslow out of town? Jamal Lewis is pushing 30, has never been a pass catching back, and got to 1000 yards because if you carry the ball 1000 times that is what happens. Braylon Edwards has the yips, plain and simple. United with Winslow, these two were part of something bigger, an offensive machine that, with competent passing under center, was bigger than the sum of its parts by virtue of its ability to attack on all three levels. Now? Who's catching the ball over the middle? Who's the other target in the red zone? Hell, who is going to be Brady Quinn's clear favorite target? I appreciate peace and quiet as much as the next guy, Eric Mangini, but you don't get wins for being the tightest ship; you get wins because your guys function better than the other guys. Say whatever else you want to, but Winslow was all about proving he was better than whoever was lined up against him.

For the Browns, this means that we're left with now is a team that will undoubtedly tout the value of a system without any of the talent that makes teams worth watching (both because they are interesting and because they win). The early rumors that Mangini was considering bypassing Quinn completely in favor of his NY pet project Brett Ratliff were nothing unexpected to anyone who watched the man gut the Jets for the sake of creating harmony under his vision for the team; aesthetic cohesion becoming an end in and of itself is the mark of any regime with underlying uncertainty. In the end, it's hard to predict anything but mediocrity for the Browns in the near future. Yes, the team will certainly do better than it was last year, but that's because any cohesive system is better than the anarchy that Romeo Crennel inspired. What's important is that improvement is not the same as justification, particularly for a team that stood on the verge of finally seeing its talent match its execution just two seasons ago. Even assuming Edwards and Lewis put together solid seasons, this is a 9-7 team at best, and while some may be satisfied with that, I'm going to continue to dream about what could have been if everyone had held onto their dreams just a little bit longer. Eric Mangini is a fine game manager, and he won't lose games with bad decisions, but he's not going to take anybody to the next level, and in that division, being dignified is a fun way to wind up with a third place finish, tops.

Hooray for progress.

Premature Evaluations 2009 - Kansas City Chiefs

2009-06-25T18:07:00.002-04:00

For all of the attention given to Josh McDaniels's arrival in Denver, perhaps we're all missing on the true establishment of the Patriots West movement because, as they say, real bad boys move in silence and violence. For the Kansas City Chiefs, silence is certainly nothing new. Nothing interesting has happened in Kansas City since LJ was a shiny new toy that Herm Edwards had not yet broken. This is different, though. That silence was an end product, the result of a lack of innovation or talent. This silence feels more like a system in and of itself, not a boring office job but life at the KGB. You can thank Comrade Pioli for the new attitude. For the most part, Belichick's disciples have sought to imitate the least important aspects of his persona, choosing his system over his ability to create systems that match talent. Judging from his moves this offseason, Pioli gets it. The swagger isn't the result of some formula; it's what allows the formula to be created.

Not that Pioli is the only new arrival on this team to have some juice to throw around. Todd Haley is fresh off of turning a team with a so-so defense and no running game into a conference champion . Matt Cassel, meanwhile, evolved faster than any first time starter in recent memory, leading the Pats to an 11-5 record and showing flashes of the same smug resentment that turned Tom Brady into TOM BRADY. If this isn't a match made in heaven, I'm not sure what is. Haley created a spread offense second only to the 2007 Patriots, and his current team has the kind of underrated receiving talent that the Pats used to win championships with (Bobby Engram is perpetually underrated, and Dwayne Bowe only gets overlooked because he entered the league with Megatron). Sure, Denver may have gotten the man who created the system, but Haley is the next best thing, and potentially better thanks to the constant lack of any sort of running game.

The defense is equally intriguing. True, it's a bit of a mish mash of personnel, with DT Glenn Dorsey not built for a 3-4 system and rookie Tyson Jackson seems built to pass rush in the 3-4, but judging from Pioli's track record (and picking up vets like Zach Thomas and former Patriot Mike Vrabel are nothing if not a throwback to the glory days) the new GM has a knack for constructing systems to make the most of freakish, if mismatched talents. Dorsey, touted as the best player in last year's draft, is nothing if not freakish, and the possibility of a defensive attack showing varied looks with this mix of savvy and sheer athletic ability could make for one of the most interesting defenses in the league for sheer novelty.

And yet with all of the changes, this season will be won or lost with a look to the Chiefs past. At the center of this team's hopes for this season is Larry Johnson, still crazy after all these years. For all the evidence to the contrary, there's no denying that Johnson has proven he can be the kind of elite back that Pioli, Haley, and Cassel have never really worked with. In 2005, he rushed for 1750 yards on a stunning 5.2 yards per carry. In 2006, he rushed for 1789 yards and broke the record for rush attempts in a season, consequently ruining himself for the next year. But despite what you've heard, Johnson isn't gone past the point of redemption; he still managed a healthy 4.2 yards per carry when healthy last season with no credible passing game thanks to the QB shuffle of mediocrity Herm Edwards utilized. The new kids in town are great, but for the Chiefs to be anything other than a rebuilding project this year, they need to make sure that in

Premature Evaluations 2009 - St. Louis Rams

2009-06-22T13:54:00.008-04:00

Let There Be Light (album version) - JUSTICE

For a minute, it really looked like he should give up on NFL football. After all. the arena leagues seemed built for a player that combined athleticism with a knack for quick work under center. Besides, nobody was taking a chance on a wandering outcast. It had been years since he’d gotten so much as a sniff of life under center in the pros. Maybe the people at Home Depot were right; maybe it was time to give up on struggling for stardom and embrace settling into a hyper talented blandness. Except nobody, not even his strongest doubters, could shake that nagging talent. It was there, in every quick release, in ever gutsy play brought back from almost certain failure. He had the gift, plain and simple. So when the Rams finally took a chance on him, and everyone doubted it, secretly both team and player knew; this was what he was born to do. And he did it. Play by play, he turned a lifeless team embodying a lifeless city into a fireworks display that America could not take its eyes off of. It was beautiful, and all the more so because nobody would have believed it if they hadn’t seen an outcast wander into town and change everything.

I’m talking, of course, about Kurt Warner’s history in St. Louis. Kudos to you for getting it. I’m also talking about why Michael Vick needs to be in a St. Louis Rams uniform next year. Shame on you for missing it.

Face facts, St. Louis residents, Marc Bulger robbed you all blind. The man is terrible at making decisions under pressure, which was all he saw once LT Orlando Pace officially started to break down last season. The result was an endless montage of watching Marc Bulger die at the hands of big, angry pass rushers. Meanwhile, while we were all watching Marc Bulger's snuff film, what went almost unnoticed is just how talented the Rams are on offense.

I'm not even talking about "man, just wait until they get there" talent; I'm talking about ready to roll, hitting their strides firepower. WR Donnie Avery, who I said looked like the next Steve Smith, did nothing to prove me wrong, throwing up ridiculous numbers for both receptions and yardage for a receiver of his size. Across the field and toiling in obscurity are the veteran Dane Looker and the promising young gun Keenan Burton, with the latter showing consistency down the stretch and hinting that the Rams may have a potent one-two punch in the passing game for years to come. Oh, and then there's RB Steven Jackson, who should be in the conversation of most versatile feature backs in the league and yet somehow gets a rep for being soft. Dude put up over 1400 total yards in an injury shortened season where he STILL managed to have the 11th most rushing attempts in the league. But yeah, he should probably decorate cakes or something.

And all of this is useless in the hands of Marc Bulger. The man makes an excellent still photograph of a quarterback, but that's about it, and if this isn't an offense built for a dynamic, versatile threat under center, then there is no offense built that way and Brian Brohm should start for every NFL team. Michael Vick, on the other hand, adds a third head to this beast. All of a sudden, Jackson's ability to catch out of the backfield turns him into a potentially deadly dump off target when pockets collapse. Think Avery and Burton couldn't wreak havoc on defenses suddenly forced to stay home for fear of Michael Vick torching them for a first down? Yeah, I know the man killed dogs, but this is St. Louis, where the cameras haven't been looking since Kurt Warner left the building; nobody will care after about two weeks…unless, of course, Vick does what he's already shown he can do and turns an otherwise directionless offense into a constant scoring threat.

I haven't even talked about the defense, but any front line with Chris Long, Adam Carriker, and Leonard Little could get the job done if only they didn't have to be on the field after every four offensive downs. The point is that last year, in a division that was widely agreed to be the most boring in football, the division champ wound up in the Super Bowl thanks to offensive flash and the same puncher's chance that everybody gets in the playoffs. This Rams team has the potential to be better…MUCH better. If there's any place better suited for Michael Vick, once the most popular and fun to watch player in football to make a reentry into the mainstream, it's on this team, where the quiet has kept all the tools he needs to succeed hidden for far too long.

Premature Evaluations 2009 - Detroit Lions

2009-06-02T11:15:00.003-04:00

This year, we're traveling from the bottom to the top, checking out each team's prospects, stories, and roles in the greater story of the league along the way.

Sisyphus has nothing on Calvin Johnson. Megatron, as he's better known to those who mourned him last season, was the league's fifth most productive receiver in terms of total yardage. Dude had 1331 yards, not to mention tying for a league best 12 touchdowns. Oh, and he put all that up catching passes from Fat Daunte, Drew Stanton, Dan Orlovsky, and Jon Kitna. Adjusting for that, the man should have had enough yardage to circle the globe at least once. Every play, the attention of the opposition rested squarely on Johnson's shoulders, and time after time Johnson, rather than acting as a decoy for an offense with nobody capable of capitalizing on such a plan, relied on his talents to overcome the very defensive schemes created to make them irrelevant. Outside of Larry Fitzgerald, there may not be a more thrilling player to watch than Megatron, if only because he is the rare skill player that can create plays entirely on his own.

And yet 0-16 still happened. As undeniably as last year was Johnson's breakout year as an elite receiver, it was also the nadir of the Detroit Lions as an organization. The Lions were within ten points of their opposition in fewer than half of their games. Roy Williams, for years having been the good soldier, practically wept with joy when he became a Dallas Cowboy. In fact, one can point to the beginning of the Lions' slide into despair in 2007 as the point when Megatron really emerged as a dominant player. The better Johnson has played, the worse the team has become. It's like Godzilla; he only comes out when the radiation is at its most toxic. The question, then, is whether or not reaching rock bottom can finally align a team with its greatest individual talent.

If the 2009 offseason means anything (and it probably doesn't, but Detroit needs a fever dream something fierce), the answer might be yes. Finally, after years of holding an entire city hostage, Matt Millen is gone. LT Gosder Cherilius is entering his second year of development, and with the addition of OT Jon Jansen should receive some valuable veteran help on the line. Kevin Smith returns after a rookie season in which he ran for almost 1000 yards and 4.1 yards per carry. Perhaps most importantly, Jim Schwartz, who turned the Tennessee Titans defense into THE TENNESSEE TITANS DEFENSE has his sights set on getting his team to win some battles in the trenches. Not bad, even if 0-16 means "not bad" includes a lack of obvious physical injuries.

But it's the draft that spoke volumes on where this team is going, and where it needs to go, and where its attentions and affections must remain if it is ever going to turn things around in the next couple of years. Make no mistake, as questionable as the Matt Stafford pick is, and as strange as the Brandon Pettigrew pick struck those believing that defense needed to come first, those picks were all about rebuilding the city that once was Detroit around it's new Megatron overlord. With an arm to find him anywhere on the field (whether in Stafford or in a reportedly lean and mean Culpepper, who could stun people thanks to a reunion with the offensive coordinator that made him a household name), and a legitimate threat to stretch the middle of the field and force defenses into some kind of honesty in tandem with the improving ground game, Calvin Johnson may finally have all of the pieces around him that he has so desperately needed. Forget the best player of his draft, Megatron may be the best player of the last three drafts. If the defense can provide a little support (and under Schwartz, one would have to imagine it will), then maybe, now that this offense has realized that Johnson is not a building block but instead a monolith, the Lions can turn things around sooner than anyone expected. After all, the NFC North isn't exactly a murderer's row (the best team there is still letting Tarvaris Jackson run the show…which is admirable for its commitment but the wrong move for a win-now franchise). Cliché time, but on any given Sunday, would you like to be the defensive coordinator up by less than seven and facing an offense boasting one of maybe three receivers that can ruin your day with one play? Sure, the playoffs aren't a sure thing,but are they ever? And considering that the schedule has gotten much, much easier (0-16 will do that to you), is it crazy to think that this team could win its divisional matchups and crawl into the dance?

Yes, it is crazy. But you know what, maybe crazy is excusable, considering I've been staring into the Megatron youtubes all day. Lions to the playoffs. This is the season my belief in the individual tailored system lives or dies.

And now, in two years, this will probably be an adult site.

Optimist/Pessimist - NFC South Draft Review

2009-05-22T17:17:00.002-04:00

New Orleans Saints:

OPTIMIST:

Well, apparently the Saints’ “lull them into a false sense of security” defense didn’t work, so chief luller CB Jason David needed to be shipped off to Never Never Land. And if you needed a replacement for David’s anti-skills, Malcom Jenkins fits perfectly. I’m a firm believer in the tall receiver movement. What goes less heralded is the fact that I’m an even firmer believer in the tall corner movement that will be happening any day now. Jenkins has the necessary speed and agility to hang with receivers, but most importantly he won’t get pushed around by large playmakers hoping to take advantage of mismatches (watch this next offensive season…JUST WATCH IT). All I’m saying is that when you’re 23rd at pass defense, a big CB is a great move. Additionally, watch P Thomas Morstead earn this team the extra 5-10 yards in field position that will make this offense suddenly potent again. People forget that this team has the offensive juice; it’s just a matter of having the proper positioning.

PESSIMIST:

Wait, maybe this whole season was the “lull them into a false sense of security” plan, because that would explain this team hoping to turn the ship around with only one draft pick in the first three rounds. CB Malcom Jenkins is a stud, but S Chip Vaughn is nowhere near speedy or big enough to play center field in the NFL, and LB Stanley Arnoux plays the exact wrong position to try to get away with being unathletic. Additionally, considering that we should have already given up on Reggie Bush being a traditional RB (mark my words, the man will be an offensive FORCE without ever having a clear position) maybe a late round RB (CEDRIC PEERMAN…ugh, I’m going to get an ulcer from this dude being passed over…) would have fit the bill. The draft can’t solve everything, but history has shown that teams that ignore it (cough…Redskins…cough) often wish they had paid attention to it when they had the chance.

Atlanta Falcons:

OPTIMIST:

The delightfully reverse-named DT Peria Jerry gives this team some interior firepower on a DL that resurrected DE John Abraham’s career. If there’s one thing that the last couple of years have shown us, it’s that strength is good, but rarely the determining factor for a defensive lineman’s worth (Kris Jenkins and Haynesworth stand out as exceptions). Quickness, on the other hand, forces offensive linemen into mistakes and breaks plays down in the backfield. Jerry is that kind of DT, and with a little added mass, he could give an already athletic Falcons defense some much needed talent in the trenches. S William Moore brings the same athleticism to the defensive backfield as well, making for an all around successful draft.

PESSIMIST:

Honestly, this was a solid draft, but one has to wonder whether size in the defensive front, the safe angle for draft picks, would have been wise for this team, which was surprisingly porous against the run (25th in the league). Considering the fact that LB Curtis Lofton is already a speedy threat in the middle of the field, a big body to clog up running lanes may have gone a long way toward fixing this team and putting them in a position to contend next year. Still, it’s a nitpicky opinion in a pretty good draft.

Carolina Panthers:

OPTIMIST:

Make no mistake about it; this team was a legitimate contender for the championship last season despite the late meltdown. With that in mind, this draft needed to be about highlighting the talent that this team already has, and DE Everette Brown, who inexplicably slipped to the second round, does just that. Think Julius Peppers, for all his whining, won’t love having an athlete of Brown’s caliber forcing blocking schemes to account for him? The same can be said for DT Corvey Irvin, who will bring the same athletic talent to the middle of the line. For this team to get deep into the playoffs, it’s going to take Peppers playing up to his potential, and these moves both represent steps in that direction.

PESSIMIST:

Well, I guess that’s one way to tell the sports media where they can shove it. Seven picks, and not one quarterback that you think may have the potential to be better than Jake Delhomme? What dirt do you have on these guys that every other team missed? Is Chase Daniel a zombie? For all that I’ve said about this team being a contender, it is still woefully trapped in the Trent Dilfer mentality of keeping a quarterback who just needs to be not bad, which is made worse by the fact that Delhomme unequivocally sucks. If he starts serving up more four turnover affairs, the Panthers will be left with either Josh McCown or an unproven Matt Moore running the show. The fact that I’m sitting here thinking they might be better off for it is a testament to how shaky Delhomme has proven to be.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers:

OPTIMIST:

Considering how inept this team looked at times last season, I was pleasantly surprised by what may have been the craftiest draft strategy of any squad. First, they picked up perhaps the best pass catching TE in the league, Kellen Winslow, for a second round pick. Then they snookered (yes, I’m sticking with that word) every other team in the league to pass on QB Josh Freeman by convincing them that they’d found their quarterback in Byron Leftwich. Not to say Leftwich can’t be a solid stopgap while Freeman develops, but Freeman has perhaps the best physical tools of any quarterback in this draft other than Pat While (who is doomed to be my new Troy Smith). With WR Antonio Bryant having emerged as a vertical weapon and Winslow acting as a safety valve, Freeman will have plenty of tools for his copious physical gifts to use, ad the Bucs may have stolen the best quarterback of the draft.

PESSIMIST:

Great, except he’s a loser. A loser with the best arm of any quarterback in his class and sneaky mobility, but a loser nonetheless. I’ve made no secret of my disdain for Matt Stafford’s mediocre performance in college, but at least that guy put some winning seasons together, something Freeman never managed to do once as a starter in college. Whether or not one buys into the cliché of someone being a “winner” aside from his statistics and talents, there’s certainly something to be said for quarterbacks needing to step up and throw a team on their back at some point during their college career, where we see singular talents turn teams into winners all the time. The fact that Freeman was unable to do so should have Bucs fans worried

Optimist/Pessimist - AFC South Draft Review

2009-05-20T16:38:00.002-04:00

Jacksonville Jaguars:

OPTIMIST:

Jack Del Rio doesn’t do subtlety or grace; his Jaguars have always been about scraping, scratching, grind-them-to-dust football. So it shouldn’t come as a surprise that his first two picks were used to get a couple of massive blockers for his offensive line. OT Eugene Monroa and OT Eben Britton should help revive a unit that was decimated by injuries last year, causing the once dominant ground game to fall to 18th in the league. With holes to run through, there isn’t a more explosive back in the league than MJD, and this should get Mighty Mouse flying high once more. Meanwhile, DT Terrance Knighton brings some much needed size to a defensive interior that wasn’t as effective at disrupting the pocket as it has been in the past. In fact, this draft represents exactly the kind of return to the past Del Rio had to be hoping for during last year’s strange tumble into mediocrity.

PESSIMIST:

David Garrard emerged in 2007 as a potential franchise quarterback for the Jaguars, combining massive size with deceptive quickness and an arm big enough to hit any point on the field. While his team never asked him to do too much, Garrard made good use of his athletic, if underwhelming wideouts, punishing defenses for thinking Jacksonville couldn’t fly too. This year, he’s going to look back on the Matt Jones/Reggie Williams era as “the good old days.” WR Torry Holt has been an amazing receiver, but the man is in the twilight of his career and has a knee that can tell him when it rains. After that, it’s…well, that’s about it, actually. Outside of perpetual disappointment TE Mercedes Lewis, there’s really nobody else who can catch a pass, and two undersized, underwhelming late round receiver picks in this draft aren’t going to make teams any less likely to shut the run down and dare Garrard to beat them through the air. Without big targets with the speed and agility to compensate for what can at times be an inaccurate arm, I’m not sure Jacksonville has enough of a pass game to effectively run its one dimensional offense.

Indianapolis Colts:

OPTIMIST:

If the Patriots are draft geniuses thanks to their ability to trade up and snag physical freaks for low personnel costs, the Colts have the same reputation thanks to their ability to quietly reload with talent that goes unnoticed until later in rounds. Their last two first round picks, RB Joseph Addai and WR Anthony Gonzalez both failed to wow scouts with any particular part of their games, and yet both had the undeniable ability to become consistent NFL starters, which they have done. RB Donald Brown is a pick in the same mold. After a heralded career at UConn, Brown fell behind flashier back Knowshon Moreno on most draft charts. Meanwhile, thanks to the need for big names that cripples other teams, the Colts picked up the most consistent RB in the draft at the 27th pick. As a platoon back with the aforementioned Joseph Addai, Brown should give the Colts the kind of mechanical consistency in the offensive backfield that allows Peyton Manning to dissect overmatched pass defenses (last year’s ground game was the second worst in the league). Oh, and don’t sleep on WR Austin Collie, who could step in as an excellent slot option as Gonzalez replaces Marvin Harrison at the #2 spot.

PESSIMIST:

Last year marked the first time in a long time that the Colts looked beaten and battered in the trenches. Considering just how many talented defensive linemen were on the board, it’s a bit surprising that they went with a first round RB in a draft class that had become notorious for its dearth of special ball carriers (although again, ignore Cedric Peerman at your own peril). Furthermore, with Peyton getting older, QB Curtis Painter may be the most boring quarterback taken this year. I’m all for consistency, but at some point this team is going to have to make a big move at the positions that have always been consistent (OL, QB).

Tennessee Titans:

OPTIMIST:

Vince Young must be so pissed right now. WR Kenny Britt gives the team it’s first legitimate receiving talent since Young joined the team, and they waited until Kerry Collins took over at QB to draft him. Combining hands, size, and speed that , if it translates to the NFL, could do a lot of vertical damage, Britt is like a less explosive Braylon Edwards, which the Titans can get away with thanks to a run-first offense. DT Sen’Derrick Marks is another smart pick, particularly considering the loss of Albert Haynesworth in free agency. If his quickness can get a little bit of strength added on, we could be looking at Haynesworth light (ok, VERY light), which could take some of the heat off of a depleted DL unit. Finally, Jared Cook might have been my second favorite TE in the draft, and in Tennessee he fills the need for a vertical threat down the middle perfectly. Don’t look now, but the Titans suddenly have an athletic corps of receivers with the size to manhandle most DB units (don’t sleep on WR Dominique Edison either). PS: Javon Ringer will take LenDale White’s job sooner rather than later.

PESSIMIST:

What they don’t have is an answer to the simple question of what happens when Kerry Collins inevitably breaks down. At this point, the team had better hope that VY is coming back more focused than ever, because otherwise Patrick Ramsey or a less than exciting Alex Mortensen is getting the nod, and nobody wants to see that. Furthermore, while receivers routinely prove that speed isn’t everything, corners rarely do, making the knock on CB Ryan Mouton’s speed all the more damning for his pro prospects.

Houston Texans:

OPTIMIST:

What initially looked like stupidity in draft strategy has now become something of a calling card for the Texans in that their defense has once again picked up incredible talent. LB Brian Cushing steps into a LB corps that desperately needed another playmaker to join DeMeco Ryan solidifying a level of the defense that too often got beaten with quarterback safety valves (17th best pass defense in unacceptable for this squad). Meanwhile, the defensive line, perhaps the best in the division now that Haynesworth is gone, picked up DE Connor Barwin, who shows incredible speed for being such a massive individual, not unlike another first day pick that was mocked mercilessly in 2006, only to become one of the league’s most frightening defensive forces. Quick question: What’s worse than getting hit by a small motorcycle moving at motorcycle speeds? Answer: Getting hit by two. If Barwin develops along similar lines, quarterbacks had better start investing in better life insurance policies.

PESSIMIST:

Of course, QB Matt Schaub is probably way ahead of them on preparing for life after being broken into twenty different pieces. Waiting until the second day to pick up an offensive linemen is a risky move, particularly considering that Matt Schaub has proven to be less than sturdy. Don’t get me wrong, I like watching QB Dan Orlovsky run outside of the back of his own end zone as much as the next guy, but we’re wasting the prime of Andre Johnson’s career here, and the fact that we should be talking about him as the best WR in the league but don’t is a shame.

Optimist/Pessimist – NFC West Draft Class

2009-05-18T16:42:00.001-04:00

Seattle Seahawks:

OPTIMIST:

I made no secret of my certainty regarding one fact: LB Aaron Curry was the best player in this draft. The fact that he dropped to the fourth pick overall makes him a steal for the Seahawks. Furthermore, he joins a LB corps rich in both youth and talent in Lofa Tatupu and Leroy Hill. Considering how porous Seattle’s defense proved to be last year (30th overall, worst against the pass, 18th against the run), a freak like Curry who proved he could parlay his physicality into performance every week is exactly what Seattle needed. Don’t buy the hype; Curry didn’t factor as strongly into Wake Forest’s pass rush as he could have because the coach used him primarily in run support and in coverage, and in the pros he’ll give offensive coordinators headaches. Turning a promising corps into a great corps is never a bad thing, and Curry does just that. Equally good is the addition of OC Max Unger, a versatile interior offensive lineman who should do wonders for a run game that couldn’t find holes in the middle to save its life.

PESSIMIST:

I really like this draft for the Seahawks, and have made my faith in QB Seneca Wallace known, so if this seems halfhearted it kind of is, but how do you not draft a QB after last year? Wallace performed well down the stretch, and certainly should still be the man for the job if and when Hasselbeck finally breaks down for good, but the fact is that Hassy has shown signs of wear and tear for two straight seasons. Considering how much the team has invested in its WR corps (Deion Branch and Housh did not come cheap, and Carlson is shaping up to be an elite TE), having some sort of a backup plan for 2-3 years down the road just in case Wallace flames out couldn’t hurt. What’s that you say? They have Charlie Frye on the roster? Oh, better make that two quarterbacks needed then, because we want as big a buffer between Frye and actual football as possible.

St. Louis Rams:

OPTIMIST:

If Marc Bulger is ever going to prove that he deserved that massive contract he got after one amazing year, it’s going to take time for his accuracy to matter and a running game that actually keeps defenders honest. OT Jason Smith goes a long way toward solving both of those problems. Already knowledgeable regarding a pass blocking scheme, all that remains is for Smith’s physicality to be converted into successful run blocking. Considering the track record of rookie star offensive tackles over the last couple of years (Joe Thomas and Jake Long changed their teams completely), the Rams have to be excited at the prospect of a similar turnaround. Equally exciting should be CB Bradley Fletcher, who has the size to at least be considered a threat to divisional rivals Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin.

PESSIMIST:

There were an awful lot of holes to fill on this team, particularly on the offensive line and at WR. So the fact that the Rams used a second round pick on LB James Laurinaitis. While he may have the pedigree to finally bring the Intercontinental Title to the Rams (get it?), Laurinaitis’s knack for vanishing from the Buckeyes playing field should remind people of a less athletically gifted Vernon Gholston, and he’s only hanging around in the league thanks to physical talent that Laurinaitis just doesn’t have. As they watch Rey Maualuga dart from sideline to sideline, you have to thing that the Rams will wonder if they’ve once again fallen victim to the “character” bug.

Arizona Cardinals:

OPTIMIST:

Considering how inconsistent their defensive play was last year, the NFC champs needed to get better at disrupting offensive backfields. DE Cody Brown, who had a very good career at UConn, should bring even more physical prowess to a defense that got a major upgrade with Calias Campbell and Rodgers-Cromartie last year. S Rashad Johnson also fills in for Hood quite nicely in terms of ability. Throw in speedy, if undersized RB Larod Stephens-Howling as a replacement for J.J. Arrington, and this team could see some defensive maturity combine with youthful talent to actually improve next season, making last year’s dream come true into something more sustainable, particularly in this division.

PESSIMIST:

The only thing that could possibly be worse than taking RB Tim Hightower in the fifth round is drafting a Tim Hightower clone in the first round. Enter RB Beanie Wells, who is coming off of a foot injury and proved ineffective against top tier competition. For a team that had one glaring offensive need, specifically a consistent running back, you have to wonder how they managed to miss so badly with this pick.

San Francisco 49ers:

OPTIMIST:

The Niners needed a dose of new blood at WR, and either Michael Crabtree of Jeremy Maclin would have gotten the job done. In Crabtree, they get a ceiling of TJ Houshmandzadeh, which isn’t bad for a WR corps that relied on a whole lot of hopes and dreams last year. RB Glen Coffee provides the team with a good spell back for Frank Gore in a league that is growing more and more accustomed to platoons in the backfield. But perhaps the most interesting pick is QB Nate Davis. Considering the team’s struggles under center, Davis, who had an excellent career at Ball State and has one of the better arms in the draft, could be a legitimate competitor for the starter’s gig sooner rather than later. All in all, a lot of young blood will arrive on an offense that could use some new faces.

PESSIMIST:

Is nobody else suspicious of a WR who got a reputation for being a diva and refused to run for scouts either at the combine or his pro day, all the while claiming he was faster than everyone who DID run? Not for nothing, but in response to all of those critics who say that the Raiders took a stupid risk with DHB, I would argue that the Niners took an even dumber risk with Crabtree over a proven, speedy Maclin. Furthermore, in a draft rich with potential platoon backs, using a third rounder on Glen Coffee seems like a bit of a reach. Drafting a TE is yet another way to kill the confidence of your most talented offensive player, Vernon Davis (who looked like he might be turning a corner late last year), and as badly as this team needed help at QB, it needed help fast, and Nate Davis’s dyslexia raises questions about his ability to quickly absorb the complexities of an NFL offense (I am getting SO many karma points for not making at least three jokes that were in the first draft…). Long story short: The team certainly picked up needed offensive weaponry, but they may have left a lot on the table, and taken dumb risks in a draft that gave them the liberty to avoid doing so.

Optimist/Pessimist - AFC West Draft Review

2009-05-13T16:16:00.002-04:00

Kansas City Chiefs

OPTIMIST
I dislike massive system overhauls that seemingly ignore elite talent, which was my thought of the initial 3-4 turn of the Jets in 2006 and the 3-4 switch of a Chiefs team with Glenn Dorsey so young in his career (just keep saying the name Mario Williams, doubters). That said, if you’re going to do it, it’s best to do what you can to make the transition as quick and effective as possible. Drafting two defensive linemen built to work in the 3-4 is the perfect way to do just that. DE Tyson Jackson is the kind of 3-4 tackle that can swallow offensive blockers or make them pay for not taking him seriously, and DT Alex Magee provides another quality end for a 3-4 scheme, giving the Chiefs a plethora of linemen. Considering that the team is considering a blend of 3-4 and 4-3 looks, this defense could become one of the most frustrating in the league thanks to its ability to put up a great front line in any format. And if WR Quentin Lawrence turns his speed into smart production at the number two WR spot, Pioli may have this squad at the top of a division in turmoil.

PESSIMIST
But man, when you have a 4-3 defense, DT Glenn Dorsey developing, and LB Aaron Curry, undeniably the best player available coming out of college, isn’t it just like a former Pats guy to draft for the system and not for the people involved? With Curry, a mediocre LB corps gets a shot in the arm, and opposing teams have to deal with two levels of defensive threats thanks to the aforementioned overflow of linemen. Without Curry, the front of this defense will be deadly (and the Giants taught us all that you can win with a stunning defensive front and not a whole lot more), but the middle of this defense will continue to raise questions. In short, a defensive front in transition now carries the burden of the entire defense, which could leave Dorsey looking like a bust when in reality he’s just the greatest remnant of a dead regime (aside from Brodie Croyle’s wife, that is).

San Diego Chargers

OPTIMIST
OG Louis Vasquez is a big man with a mean streak, which is always a good sign for an interior offensive lineman, and his addition should make Tomlinson look at least a little better than last year’s mediocrity. Furthermore, LB Larry English is one of the best player’s on film in this year’s draft. But the real player to keep an eye on here is WR Demetrius Byrd, who was an effective number one option at LSU and fell in the draft due to that most nebulous of draft measurements, “character issues.” With the speed to make a solid two or three option at WR and the size to frustrate typical corners, the Chargers may have pulled off a Houshmandzadeh style steal in the 7th round.

PESSIMIST
I am so tired of people pissing on the NFL combine, and drafts like this are why. No, the combine doesn’t tell you everything about a player, but you know what tells you even less? Your “gut”. It’s like scouts are a bunch of old men with dreamcatchers and windchimes they trust more than stopwatches. See, drafting on “gut” is how you wind up with a physically unimpressive pass rusher instead of a much needed offensive lineman, and an unnecessary slow RB instead of Cedric Peerman, who proceeded to slip two rounds lower to a team that will finish with at least two more wins. I don’t get to “kind of sort of feel my way to 30 MPH” when I drive, so why is it GMs somehow feel it’s OK to ignore combine performance when drafting positions so dependent on physical skill (looking RIGHT at you, Bengals…)?

Denver Broncos

OPTIMIST
You know what keeps Josh McDaniels’s clothes on? The gravitational pull of his HUGE BALLS. Those babies are also what made him decide to damn the torpedoes and draft for talent. The result is RB Knowshon Moreno being drafted in the first round despite a defense generously comparable to a thick fog. Considering that the team also acquired underrated RB J.J. Arrington and power back RB LaMont Jordan in the offeason, we may finally be looking at a Denver team that doesn’t keep nine backs on the roster. But more importantly in terms of need, the team used its second first round pick to add DE Robert Ayers, who is the kind of athletic monster that McDaniels’s old team used to add on a yearly basis, regardless of where he fit in the system. Versatile enough to rush at the line or drop back into pass coverage, this is the kind of physicality that a soft Denver defense has been missing for the last several years, and should speed the transition to a more workable 3-4 system.

PESSIMIST
Josh McDaniels had better pray that Kyle Orton walk onto the field on opening day and throw three touchdowns and no interceptions in a win, because otherwise Denver could be in flames by week two. I’ve heard of burning the boats, but not drafting a QB to at least develop behind Neckbeard is like shooting a couple of soldiers to prove you’re the man. In fact, of all the Belichick disciples, McDaniels certainly appears to be the most gung ho about establishing his primacy on the team. Whether this makes him more or less like his mentor remains to be seen, but without a couple of good wins quickly, he’ll have a whole city wondering why they ran the rare athlete out of town and kept a guy who can do what they do playing Madden every day.

Oakland Raiders

OPTIMIST
I said it when it happened, and I’ll say it again: WR Darrius Heyward-Bey over Crabtree and Maclin was the right decision. Crabtree was a so-so deep ball receiver in a pass wacky offense that reportedly turned him into a diva and gave him his one magic moment on which to build hype (if they showed the catch against Texas one more time on draft day, I was going to go insane). Meanwhile, Maclin, though certainly speedy and productive in college, is exactly the kind of player that disappears in the league when forced to become a top option too soon, which is what the Raiders are looking for (on the Eagles, he’ll be great, but in bracket coverage, he’d languish). In DHB, they get a faster and bigger receiver than either Crabtree or Maclin. Furthermore, with the immediate reaction against him, they also get a guy with something to prove, unlike their last two splashy picks. Yes, I recognize that DHB’s collegiate production wasn’t ideal, but anyone who watches ACC football (there are, like, five of us) knows that Maryland was a run first team with a bad QB. Considering that the Raiders are desperate to make JaMarcus Russell’s incomparable arm look like something other than a money pit, giving him a big, fast target was the right decision.

PESSIMIST
Fine, we won’t complain about taking a physical wonder that disappointed statistically in college. But that doesn’t mean the rest of this horrendous draft doesn’t get a good thrashing. Wasting a second round pick on a so-so safety is idiotic considering the needs this team has on both lines, and drafting a slew of undersized players means that for all the speed on both sides of the ball, nobody will be able to win their individual matchups, meaning they will be fast for exactly how long it takes them to run into an opposing player. I’m not convinced this offense is terrible (it made strides toward the end of last year), and there’s definitely some talent on the defensive side of the ball (Nnamdi is like a black hole where receivers go to die), but until this team starts winning some wars in the trenches, they’ll just get worn down to the point where their speed is less of a weapon and more of a spectacle, which is a word that has defined these guys for far too long.

Optimist/Pessimist - AFC East Draft Review

2009-05-07T15:53:00.002-04:00

New England Patriots:

OPTIMIST
The way these guys work the rest of the league like a speed bag is ridiculous. Six picks in the second and third rounds? Let me translate: They get to restock talent without having to pay first round salaries to players that aren’t worth the price tag anyway. What’s more, nobody addresses key positions quite like the Pats. A hard nosed, run stopping safety who plays with an aggressive streak? Great, just what I needed, ANOTHER Rodney Harrison (albeit with the more delightful name of Patrick Chung). A safeguard against the mild retardation of Ellis Hobbs? Yes, the quickest corner in the draft who now has a chip on his shoulder for being passed in the first round will do quite nicely. Throw in the fact that this team found one of the toughest positions to fill (3-4 NT) in the second round, and it’s another year of the rich getting richer.

PESSIMIST
For the first time in a couple of years, this draft didn’t see the addition of some physical monster to the ranks of the NFL’s great villain. Last year Defensive Rookie of the Year LB Jerod Mayo seemed to magically appear wherever the ball was, using his speed to prevent plays from developing and his strength to overpower offensive schemes. In 2007, S Brando Meriweather brought frightening centerfield speed to a position that, thanks to the addition of valuable secondary players, will be free to make use of his natural ability as a ball hawk. Even 2006’s addition of Lawrence Maroney added a tantalizing element of quick strikes to the backfield, and despite disappointing returns Maroney is still too gifted to overlook. So when this draft went by without an big, splashy players coming on board, one had to wonder whether or not it was former GM Scott Pioli who was the think-big half of the Patriots “think-big, win-small” front office. A petty weakness, but also a potential crack in the armor of the most stable franchise in the league.

Buffalo Bills:

OPTIMIST
In a division that is reliant on either stalwart consistency (Pennington), potential greatness (Sanchez), or definite greatness (Brady), it’s interesting to see the Bills select Aaron Maybin in the first round, who has the speed to make nightmares for any offensive backfield. Furthermore, if they’re really behind the Trent Edwards experiment, taking a strong center in Eric Wood is another smart decision, and along with OG Andy Levitre should also bolster the interior of the line for RB Marshawn Lynch. In other words, screw the quarterback. While it’s certainly not the sexiest draft on the board, it is the kind of counter-divisional thinking that will either leave the Bills in surprising contention for the top, or once again woefully at the bottom. Oh, and don’t sleep on Shawn Nelson, and not just because, unlike Robert Royal, he’s not made of slow moving granite.

PESSIMIST
I’ve been asking this for two years running now, but are we really so sure about Trent Edwards that not a single QB needed to be drafted in a draft with at least three interesting prospects within the Bills’ grasp? It’s saying something that every single team was in the running for the division last season with the exception of Buffalo, and a lot of the blame for that has to fall on Edwards, especially with Lee Evans and Roscoe Parrish to throw to, and James Hardy potentially a red zone behemoth. Now that the team has chosen to invest in TO, it’s sink or swim time for the young quarterback, who will not recover if things start to go south and Owens turns on his signal caller. Even if you don’t believe that Edwards is a bland, talentless echo of a game manager (and I do, I so do), a little preparing for the worst couldn’t have hurt.

Miami Dolphins:

OPTIMIST
PAT WHITE!!!

PESSIMIST
Um…maybe they reached for CB Vontae Davis. And Patrick Turner, though big…um…No, screw it, I’m too happy about this pick. Henne is going to get rocked early, meaning that we’re all living in the age of PAT WHITE!!!!!!

New York Jets:

OPTIMIST
I like Mark Sanchez. There’s a reason he emerged as my second favorite QB in our draft previews this year, and on a team where he’ll be given the chance to learn without the threat of replacement, his cool under pressure and ability to throw on the run could find unique use in Brian Schottenheimer’s system (that’s right Schotty, I’m giving you ONE more year to get back to 2006 form). In short, he’s a much needed shot in the arm at a position that has needed one since the team gave up on Handsome Chad in 2007. Additionally, Shonn Greene is the perfect addition to a backfield that needs a between the tackles RB to take some pressure off of Thomas Jones (easy with the contract talk, Joneses…one good season does not a franchise player make…). Rotating in with Jones and Neon Leon Washington, the Jets may have suddenly created a dangerously versatile backfield with the ability to keep fresh legs on the ground at all times.

PESSIMIST
Mark my words, Tannenbaum: If not drafting a WR means that we’re running Brad Smith out there as a number two option, I am going to throw batteries at the field at whatever home games I am able to attend. Would it have killed us to at least give our rookie quarterback an experimental number one option? I love Cotchery, but he’s not a number one, and nobody else on the team has proven themselves, with the mentioned exception of Brad Smith, who has proven himself to be very, very, very bad. I hate that I’m going to have to drastically change my stance on gun control to root for Plaxico Burress to wind up on Gang Green…

Ups and downs

2009-05-06T16:50:00.003-04:00

We're dealing with exams and the offseason, but if you want to get another perspective on draft analysis, head over to Fuhbaw, where my friend and your friend Cian lists the picks he liked and didn't like with rationale to boot. How he missed Cedric Peerman is beyond me. If you're reading this, consider us back in a "UFL debate" style fight, Cian.

Thin lines

2009-05-06T15:00:00.002-04:00

Awesome post from the hilarious KSK by Big Daddy Drew dealing with Favre moving from his most hated rival to his favorite team. Behind the humor, there's some really deep stuff going on, so I can still wear my pretentious hat while I link to my favorite source for boob jokes on the internet.

Optimist/Pessimist – NFC East Draft Class

2009-05-05T16:01:00.002-04:00

New York Giants:

OPTIMIST
Well, nobody can accuse Jerry Reese of not recognizing his team’s flaws. After essentially alienating his number one receiver (and one of three players on that team who can claim a personal responsibility for the 2007 Super Bowl) by releasing him in the midst of legal troubles, Reese used three of his five picks in the first three rounds on potential replacements for Plaxico Burress. WR Hakeem Nicks may have the best hands in this draft class, and has the strength and route running to win battles for position. TE Travis Beckum is speedy enough to challenge linebackers and big enough to manhandle corners. And then there is Ramses Barden, the 6’6”, 229 pound genius monster out of Cal Poly, who, despite being a step slower, is probably the most natural replacement for Burress as a target for Manning. Combined with the addition of a big OLB to confuse blockers and an OT who will benefit from the experienced linemen around him, Reese may have another impressive draft haul on his hands.

PESSIMIST
This may seem unfair in a draft analysis, but why didn’t Reese just keep Plaxico Burress? Wouldn’t that be easier than drafting a crew of pass catchers who are either smaller (Nicks), less polished (Beckum), or slower (Barden) than the man himself? Indeed, this seems to be a recurring theme with Reese for the last two years, dropping mildly troublesome talents and justifying the move by drafting pseudo replacements. He pulled it with Shockey last year, and the team lost a target that would have come in handy when Burress was unavailable. Similar results this season could leave the Giants lagging behind division rivals who are actively improving rather than simply plugging holes.

Philadelphia Eagles:

OPTIMIST
I love, love, love, LOVE the first round seletion of WRJeremy Maclin. A big play threat as soon as he hits the league, Maclin won’t be asked to do too much in an offense that already boasts downfield burners Kevin Curtis and DeSean Jackson, which will allow Maclin to develop his route running underneath en route to becoming yet another deadly variable in mad passing scientist Andy Reid’s arsenal. Also, don’t sleep on the selection of RB LeSean McCoy in the second round, who could be an immediate improvement over the so-so Buckhalter as a backup and could eventually compete with Westbrook for the starter’s gig. Perfect example of becoming great at what you’re already good at here.

PESSIMIST
The only thing keeping me from falling in love with the Eagles draft is that they clearly lost important pieces of their pass defense in Dawkins and Shepherd, and I’m not sure they took any steps to fill the holes. While there might not be a defense that can keep up with their offense, the Eagles’ defense showed that varied pass attacks could hurt them last season, and the loss of two talented secondary players needed to be addressed.

Washington Redskins:

OPTIMIST
Thank goodness for Mark Sanchez being off the board when the 13th pick rolled around, because the Redskins dodged that land mine and instead got to pick a player they actually needed in DE Brian Orakpo. The only team with an obvious, glaring weakness in the NFC East going into last year (pass rushing), the Redskins suffered as a result, with teams eventually finding the time to tear apart an otherwise solid defense with patient attacks. Orakpo changes that immediately, creating pressure and allowing a smart LB corps and secondary take advantage of the mistakes that will inevitable result.

PESSIMIST
Again, not a beef with the actual draft, but at this point Dan Snyder might as well whisper discouraging things into Jason Campbell’s ear while he sleeps. Am I the only one who has noticed that Campbell improved in a major way last year, and did so while learning his seventh offensive system in seven years? With an improving defense that should allow the offense some variety in attack, Campbell has all the physical gifts to make Zorn’s developing pass monstrosity (remember, these guys got THREE potential top receivers last year) function like the hydra it was meant to be, as opposed to a one dimensional deep strike offense or hard nosed ground game. Yes, Dan, Mark Sanchez is a handsome dude, but seeing as you already let the Colt Brennan hype (/stifles giggles) build to insane confidence crushing proportions last year, and you were in play for Jay Cutler in the offseason (who has had his own struggles reaching the postseason in a weaker division), maybe you should give Campbell a hug in public or something, because if he’s pissed, this is going to be another wasted year in his development.

Dallas Cowboys:

OPTIMIST
The rare draft in which I’m hard pressed to find something I liked, I’m going to go with the selection of kickoff specialist David Buehler in the 5th round. No, it’s not a sexy choice, but considering the new rules against wedge blocking which will make long returns tougher and how often the Cowboys offense will score points, picking up an extra 40 or more yards of field position per game is nothing to laugh at.

PESSIMIST
Okay, I’m done being nice. What the hell was ANYONE thinking with this draft? Let’s forget for a minute how stupid it was to trade a first rounder for Roy Williams, who never managed to elevate Detroit’s offense until Calvin Johnson showed up. Outside of one quick linebacker, the Cowboys picked up a lineman who didn’t produce, a quarterback who couldn’t start in college, and a slew of flawed pass rushers. Oh, and all Michael Hamlin needs to do is invent his own cheating tactic and he’ll be on pace to become former SS Roy Williams faster than Roy Williams became Roy Williams. It’s like they hate improvement in Dallas. No amount of field position bonus is going to fix that.

Optimist/Pessimist: AFC North Draft Class

2009-04-30T17:09:00.002-04:00

Pittsburgh Steelers:

OPTIMIST
How bad was the Steelers’ offensive line? So bad that they won the Super Bowl on the strength of their passing attack and a run game that was just as brutal as anything else in the league. Yeah, real bad. So it’s really not a huge surprise that the team opted to make their formidable 3-4 defense even better by taking a nasty DT in the first round. They still managed to pick up a guard in the third, and even added a speedy potential replacement for Nate Washington in WR Mike Wallace. By increasing the intensity in the trenches and slyly filling offseason holes, the Steelers put themselves in a position to once again be the team to beat next season.

PESSIMIST
How bad was the Steelers’ offensive line? So bad that if the Eagles had bothered to show up in the first half of the NFC Championship, Pittsburgh would have had to face for a second time a defensive unit that put up nine sacks and completely dominated their regular season matchup. Instead, they caught a break against a chippy but unimpressive Cardinals defense. The fact of the matter is that a quarterback can only take so many 250+ pound men crashing down on him before his physical gifts start to diminish rapidly, and for a QB like Big Ben, that could be the beginning of a rapid end for an offense that depends on his arm more than anyone admits.

Cleveland Browns:

OPTIMIST
I hate Eric Mangini, but the fact of the matter is that he helped put together some solid drafts in NewYork, and there’s no reason to doubt that he knew what he and GM George Kokinis were doing when they traded down for the sake of stockpiling draft picks. Considering how often NFL teams miss with big, splashy picks, his decision to avoid high salary selections in favor of a versatile offensive lineman and hording defensive rookies is, if not sexy, certainly prudent, and exactly the kind of stable leadership to get a team that was much more talented than last year’s debacle would indicate back on track.

PESSIMIST
There’s a reason I called the Browns trading away the #5 pick of the draft: Eric Mangini is the guy to get a team fighting in the middle of the pack, and nothing more. With options at much needed defensive positions, the cowardly lion of football coaches opted to let other teams make his decision for him not once, but twice. The payoff for all of this maneuvering? Two slow-footed wide receivers (if this team trades Braylon Edwards, I give up on a Browns resurgence) and some maybe/maybe-not defensive players. Fine, they got a center, but they’re likely going to move him to guard, and there were plenty of those to be found in this draft. Churning and churning doesn’t mean that a front office is doing a good job, just that they want to keep their job a little longer than their last one.

Baltimore Ravens:

OPTIMIST
It is stunning to me that OT Michael Oher lasted this long. How many teams have to go from the bottom to near the top in one season before teams realize exactly how important the position is to an offense? Every coach needs a copy of The Blind Side, a story of which Oher was the protagonist, by the way. Oher has the potential to develop into the next Jonathan Ogden, and considering talent that Joe Flacco showed behind an average line, the team has to be thrilled with that prospect. Oh, and any team that took my personal low round obsession RB Cedric Peerman was going to get high marks. The most physically impressive RB in the draft, Peerman fits perfectly into Cam Cameron’s offensive schemes thanks to his ability to catch passes and run between the tackles, and could work his way to the top of an already impressive platoon.

PESSIMIST
Man this is a boom/bust class. OLB Paul Kruger shows an admirable motor in pursuit of the ball, but needs to improve his physicality if he’s going to be effective. CB Lardarius Webb is a speedy ball hawk, but he needs to have top-notch vision and anticipation to make up for being undersized in a league that is becoming overrun with big bodies at WR. Peerman needs to develop at least some ability to get to the outside for yardage if his game is going to be what it should be. Even Oher needs to prove his ability to assimilate the complexities of a pro offense. Much like the Flacco pick, I admire the risk, but that’s a whole lot of “needs to” statements for one team’s draft haul.

Cincinnati Bengals:

OPTIMIST
There is no denying that despite an atrocious combine showing and an equally bad pro day, Andre Smith was far and away the most dominant offensive lineman in college football on the field. Last time I checked, that’s where the physical skills really matter. Smith drives players well off their mark and with coaching could become a devastating pass blocker given his quick reaction time. If the team is really committed to the Carson Palmer era, this was the right move. Furthermore, the addition of LB Rey Maualuga to a linebacking corps that already saw great improvement with Keith Rivers last year could give Marvin Lewis LB corps reminiscent of his days in Baltimore.

PESSIMST
You know how else he’ll remind Lewis of his Bodymore days? He’s already been arrested for misdemeanor battery. Oh, and calling Andre Smith’s workouts “atrocious” is like calling water boarding “inconvenient.” Smith looked like he should waddle his way from the combine to the set of “The Biggest Loser.” How on earth do the Bengals not get that although good chemistry alone is never going to win championships, bad chemistry can tear a team apart before the talent by which it’s justified emerges? We’ll all know the real deal when, halfway through the season, Chad Ochocinco makes Smith cry by making weight jokes on “PTI.”

Optimist/Pessimist: NFC North

2009-04-28T17:01:00.002-04:00

Optimist/Pessimist takes a look at the bright and not so bright side of each team's draft haul, division by division. Today, the NFC North.

Detroit Lions:

OPTIMIST
We’ve been over this before: Identity as need revolves around getting great at what you do well, not becoming mediocre at what you don’t do well. To that end, TE Brandon Pettigrew, and to a lesser extent QB Matthew Stafford, represent a positive step toward a cohesive identity as a high power offense. The fact of the matter is that OT Gosder Cherilius needs time to develop at the position, so an early round OT didn’t make sense. At this point, everything needs to revolve around making Megatron more effective, and a QB with an undeniably great arm and a versatile TE who forces defenses to remain honest in the middle of the field take a lot of pressure off of the third year receiver. Meanwhile, the defense picked up players built to play the sort of grinding ball that Jim Schwartz mastered in Tennessee, with Louis Delmas looking like a smarter Roy Williams, and Sammie Lee Hill drawing comparisons to Cortland Finnegan. In a draft where everyone expected the Lions to fail, it’s hard to argue that they didn’t get better, maybe even a lot beter.

PESSIMIST
I mean, any time you have the chance to pay $41 million to a marginally successful quarterback and make him the richest rookie ever, you have to pull that trigger, right? I don’t know why any of us were wondering whether or not the Lions would make the easy, flashy, and ultimate foolish move of using the #1 overall pick on Matt Stafford; it was obvious from the beginning that everyone wanted them to make this move. Never mind that one of the most incredible physical talents at the LB position was available to make an already talented LB corps one of the most dangerous in the league. At the end of the day, identity is an important thing, but until this team addresses the glaring holes in their defense, they’ll be stuck in shootouts that they’ll lose more often than they win.

Minnesota Vikings:

OPTIMIST
First, before we get to the main event, don’t sleep on the selection of OT Phil Loadholt in the second round. A massive lineman, he can step in opposite Bryant McKinnie and give Adrian Peterson all the running room he’ll need to dominate again. That said, the focus has to be on WR Percy Harvin. The positives are obvious: Harvin is fast, elusive, can attack defenses from various points in the offense, and hits top speed quicker than any other skill player in the draft. In short, he is one of the scariest offensive weapons taken this year, if not the scariest.

PESSIMIST
“Scary” is a good word for a player who has demonstrated discipline issues and is too small to get away with the route running he’s shown up to this point. Yes, I know DeSean Jackson proved me wrong last year, but that was in Andy Reid’s pass wacky offense. Here, Harvin will need to either learn to work the middle of the field or be the next Steve Smith in order to find scoring opportunities in an offense built primarily around a run game. Oh, and unless Harvin is fast enough to throw the ball to himself, that quarterback situation might be a problem too.

Green Bay Packers:

OPTIMIST
Perhaps no team took steps toward reclaiming a lost identity more brazenly than Green Bay with the pickup of DT B.J. Raji and OLB Clay Mathews. Matthews the hard hitting speed that Green Bay has always valued in their LB corps, and should be able to contribute immediately. More importantly, Raji restores the defensive line to the stuff of QB nightmares, putting a massive body in the middle of a defense transitioning to the 3-4 and showing signs of being the new Kris Jenkins in terms of quickness. Anyone who watched Jenkins’s influence on the Jets defense should know that a strong NT makes all the difference in a 3-4 scheme. The monstrous defense that carried this team to the NFC Championship game in 2007 is officially back.

PESSIMIST
To say that I’m not sold on Ryan Grant as a starter at the RB position would be an understatement. In one year, Grant went from being a wonderful between the tackles threat to Ron Dayne. For all the talk of the defense losing steam, maybe last year really taught us that Grant never had any to begin with, and relying on a first year starter to anchor a one dimensional offense was a bad idea. The fact that the team saw fit to avoid drafting a much needed replacement is the sort of stubbornness that gets coaches whose teams fell from the sky after losing a beloved icon fired.

Chicago Bears:

OPTIMIST
Look, we all know I didn’t like the Cutler trade, but it’s hard to argue that the Bears didn’t get a lot better at a position of need with the move. Considering the haul they gave up for him, Cutler needs to be the focus of every move this team makes, and in drafting three wideouts, the Bears showed admirable commitment to finding the tools their new quarterback will need in order to succeed.

PESSIMIST
Two slow-footed pass catchers and a mediocre, undersized speedster does nothing to revive a pass attack whose best targets both play TE. Devin Hester belongs as a #2 receiver at best, and is unfortunately forced to fill the #1 spot for another year. If you’re wondering why Cutler’s getting hammered in public every night since the trade, it’s because the thought of chucking passes to this bunch will drive any man to drink. Hell, look at what it did to Kyle Orton.

2009 NFL Draft LIVE BLOG

2009-04-25T15:36:00.086-04:00

7:32
The Steelers select Missouri DT Ziggy Hood with #32. I've got nothing that would extend beyond a lame name joke, so I think I'm done for the evening. Thanks to everyone for stopping by, and I heart you all. See you all next week when we start breaking down all of this madness.

7:28
That pick deserves an F for the Cardinals, but an A for JJ Arrington's job security.

7:24
Arizona drafts Ohio State RB Beanie Wells at #31. Wait, if you got Tim Hightower in the 5th last year, why get him in the 1st this year?

7:22
Arizona looks like they're set on solving that mediocre rush game problem with...oh, wait...never mind...

7:18
The Titans select Rutgers WR Kenny Britt at #30. Maybe if they'd done this a year ago, we wouldn't have had to take away Vince Young's belt and shoelaces.

7:14
Bwahaha. Apparently, ESPN says the big plus for Nicks was that "Eli didn't miss him". Aim high, former Super Bowl champs.

7:12
My friend Julian, who is a Giants fan: "Great hands, a little thick in the middle, but gives you what you want? Did we draft a WR or a rub and tug hooker?"

7:09
The Giants take UNC WR Hakeem Nicks at #29. Wait, he's not 7'10"? How will Eli hit him?!?

7:04
Bills take Louisville C Eric Wood at #28, who looks like a grown up version of the kid from Bad Santa.

7:00
The Colts take Connecticut RB Donald Brown at #27. Apparently, the only thing better than having ONE Mike Hart on the team...

6:59
Evan: "Hey, the Horse With No Name has an amazing vertical jump."

6:58
Apparently, the Colts drafted America at #27, judging from the armed forces being on stage. I hear that America can't run a sub 4.5 40, so that's a reach in round 1.

6:56
Clay Matthews and his entire family are apparently sponsored by Muscle Milk. With THAT kind of douchiness, how could the Pats pass him up?!?

6:55
The Packers make a deal with the devil and select USC OLB Clay Matthews with pick #26.

6:52
My friend just said, "I don't think Belichick would need to make some sneaky move to make a trade." I'm going to punch my friend in the face and then talk him into buying another punch in the face from me.

6:46
The Miami Dolphins take Illinois CB Vontae Davis at #25. Egg on the face of Darius Butler's dad, who said he was going here if he was still on the board.

6:41
The Atlanta Falcons take Ole Miss DT Peria Jerry at #24. I don't know the kid, but I'd imagine going from Ole Miss to Atlanta is a positive life change for a young black athlete.

6:39
Is Steve Young crying?

6:36
The Ravens select Ole Miss OT Michael Oher at #23. It's finny that they pretty much selected the new Jonathan Ogden to replace the old Jonathan Ogden.

6:34
Pats trade the pick to the Ravens. Ravens, we've been over how dealing with the great Satan is not OK.

6:32
Todd McShay on Percy Harvin: "He may win the race before he crashes the car." Comforting news to the fans that turned Koren Robinson into a drunk.

6:30
At least the Vikes now have someone who can hold his own on the upcoming Sex/Drug boat sequel.

6:28
The Vikings select Florida WR Percy Harvin at #22. I'd call this dumb, but that's not fair. Paying Bernard Berrian boatloads of money is dumb. This is deliberately bad for the team. Say hello to your Los Angeles Vikings in 2012.

6:25
Eric Mangini gets off the pot and the Browns enter the secret world of Cal C Alex Mack at #21.

6:22
At pick #20, the Lions take TE Brandon Pettigrew. Ok, brace yourselves, because I don't hate that pick. You've got Gosder Cherilius developing at LT, and if you draft a tackle in the first you're paying a RT the kind of money reserved for a LT. Meanwhile, in Pettigrew, you get a really good blocker, and also a potentially stunning pass catcher to work the oft neglected middle of the field and take pressure off of Megatron. In other words, you get much better at what you do well rather than a little better at what you do poorly. They'll get slaughtered for it, but the comittment to the rebuilding and youth-development effort is admirable.

6:16
According to Eric Mangini, the 6th round of this draft has an entire Pro Bowl roster.

6:13
With the Browns' pick, the Eagles take Missouri WR Jeremy Maclin at #19. Solid choice. I'm not sure there's a defense with the speed to deal with Kevin Curtis, DeSean Jackson, and Maclin on the same field.

6:11

No no, don't you see? You don't need these "players" to win. All you need is boatloads of money, my personally crafted brilliant schemes, and Abram Elam. Once I unveil my third down punt scheme, the league will bow to my greatness.

6:07
Broncos take Tennessee DE Robert Ayers at #18. How is Everette Brown still on the board? Is academic integrity measured at the combine?

6:04
Why is ESPN using Skype to present team reports? I feel like I'm watching a 1970's Kung Fu movie every time someone justifies why Denver didn't need to go defense.

6:00
The Bucs take Kansas State QB Josh Freeman at #17. What does a black QB have to do to get higher than a C+ from Mel Kiper?

5:58
CLEVELAND TRADES DOWN AGAIN! The Bucs have the pick! Wipe the pee off the pants Mangini and make a choice!

5:55

Isn't there anyone who will make it so I don't have to make a decision? Anybody? Please?

5:52
The Chargers take Northern Illinois OLB Larry English at #16. Nobody has given me a convincing reason why a great player would go to Northern Illinois. No, "Maybe he loves Northern Illinois" does not count.

5:51
Steve Young needs to think these long rants through, because it really takes away from his "I make pointing gestures to accentuate points when I talk" technique for him to go a full minute talking about nothing.

5:48
My friend Evan in response to Mel running through the top WRs remaining: "Forget in cleats, Percy Harvin couldn't hit 5'11" in high heels." Slow clap.

5:47
THERE IS A PLAYER NAMED ALEX MACK IN MEL'S TOP 10 REMAINING!!! NICKELODEON NEEDS TO GET CRACKING ON A REMAKE ASAP!!

5:45
Houston selects USC LB Brian Cushing with pick #15. That lady is really well built.

5:44
Brian Cushing has a 80's movie villain ponytail going. This is why I don't watch more USC football.

5:40
New Orleans takes Ohio State CB Malcolm Jenkins at #14. Jason David will never play in the NFL again. He'll wind up on the NFL equivalent of the Washington Generals.

5:36
Because you care, it's another pee break.

5:33
We're moving rapid fire, and the Redskins take Texas DE Brian Orakpo at #13. He looks surprisingly subdued, considering that Dan Snyder is about to pay him $40 google plex trillion and ownership of a small European country.

5:31
Denver selects Georgia RB Knowshon Moreno at #12. Well that's a surprise. Guess this clearly shows a break from Shanny's fantasy football killing platoon system.

5:26
Buffalo selects Penn State DE Aaron Maybin at #11. Another solid pick that I have nothing to say about. Now that Crabtree is gone, what will I piss and moan about?

5:24
No lie, they showed the same catch twice, and the other two catches in the Crabtree highlight reel were five yards or less. I'm not making this up, people.

5:19
San Francisco takes Texas Tech WR Michael Crabtree at #10. That makes sense, because they'll be starting a jug machine at QB. Gotta be excited for that pick.

5:14
Green Bay selects BC DT B.J. Raji with pick #9. I like the move. That D-Line was a monstrosity when the team went to the NFC Championship, and Raji can get them there again.

5:10
B.J. Raji jumps up in celebration before Goodell announces his selection. Goodell is going to suspend him for 4 years and keep him on substance abuse probation as punishment.

5:07
Ugh. Mel's got his draft boner on for Michael Crabtree, and nobody is getting higher than a C until he gets picked. That pink starburst colored outfit is going to weep his way to ruining my draft day. Mel, NOT THAT MANY TEAMS NEED A WR. Maybe there's a team that feels like there Injured Reserve list isn't a full strength. That could be a good fit for Crabrtee.

5:05
The Jaguars select Virginia OT Eugene Monroe with pick #8. Monroe looks as psyched as a man doomed to a future in Jacksonville can look.

5:00
The TiT war room has broken into fighting over DHB over Crabtree. Let me explain something: One of them put up solid stats, and was easily the best receiver at the combine. The other is an injured diva who played in a pass happy offense and has refused to run since. There IS NO DEBATE. Oh, wait, he made that one good catch. The Raiders should have drafted that catch to the team.

4:56
The Raiders take Maryland WR Darrius Heyward-Bey with the #7 pick. Michael Crabtree looks as sad as a man in that pink an outfit can look.

4:55
Not a single Cincinattica joke, ESPN? Disappointing.

4:50
Cincy takes Alabama OT Andre Smith with the #6 pick. I mean, any time you've got a team with glaring character flaws and you have the chance to pick the only player to show up to both the combine and his own pro day grotesquely out of shape, you have to make that move.

4:46
Wait, so you're telling me that we got Mark Sanchez AND got rid of Abram Elam, the slowest defensive back I have seen in my lifetime? Did Mangini write that deal down in a Hallmark card?

4:44
Bengals on the clock. Hide the silverware.

4:43
The utter lack of irony when these analysts say "The Jets are the only team in this division without a quarterback" is stunning. When will life stop slapping Handsome Chad in the face?

4:41
With the #5 pick, the Jets take USC QB Mark Sanchez. Awesome. I'm hearing how Sanchez's "personality will fit in in NY". Oh, wait, who's he throwing it to again?

4:39
J! E! T! S! trade into the five spot. I told you Mangini would punt. Welcome to NYC, Mr. Sanchez.

4:38
Can someone explain the ethnicity of the KFC CEO? Because that is a baffling accent.

4:36
Eric Mangini is on the board, and if there was a way to punt the pick away, I'm sure he'd do it.

4:33
The Seahawks take Wake Forest LB Aaron Curry with the #4 pick of the draft. My opinion is well known: This is the best pick of the top 10. In a conference that otherwise loathes defense, Seattle brings something special to their linebacker corps.

4:31
Seahawks are on the board, and I'm hearing a lot of talk about how Matt Hasselbeck is apparently the QB of the future. Welcome to 1989, people.

4:25
And the Chiefs take LSU DE Tyson Jackson with the #3 pick. I've never heard of him, and didn't see him this high, but considering that this is a Scott Pioli pick, Tyson Jackson is going to ruin your season, other AFC West fans.

4:21
WE'VE GOT HERM AT THE DRAFT?!?!? This draft just became my favorite ever. He just explained why not having a second round pick gives you MORE flexibility in the draft. Herm Edwards is Math's arch-nemesis.

4:20
Aaron Curry, who WILL be the best pick of the top five, is also the best dressed in the building. I love that there's still significance to that.

4:18
With the several minutes into this project pick of the draft, I select urinating while standing up. Back in a bit.

4:15
The Rams take Baylor OT Jason Smith with the #2 pick. Wow, I'm stunned that they didn't think it was a good idea to throw a quarterback behind an offensive line that killed every quarterback that stood behind it. At least, ESPN makes me think I should be.

4:12
If the Rams take Mark Sanchez at #2, I give up on trying to understand things. Do you want to turn Mark Sanchez into the next Marc Bulger, who is currently filled with bloody, soft, warm bread dough?

4:09
SPACEMAKER

4:08
Keyshawn, you're a disappointing number one pick. Tell us how THIS disappointing number one pick will do.

4:05
Roger Goodell kicks us off, and announces that the Detroit Lions take Georgia QB Matt Stafford with the #1 pick of the 209 NFL Draft. Equally unsurprising, Goodell has announced that any unruly minorities will be suspended from this and all other NFL activities, so easy with the booing.

4:03
I'm already disappointed in this day because Keyshawn's tie didn't create a flare burn in my TV screen.

3:58
Mort says that teams may trade for draft picks. This is the kind of in-depth analysis we pay him the big bucks for.

3:55
Failed comeback is over. LET'S DO THIS!!! Immediately faced with fat fetus headed Matt Stafford explaining why he'll be the mistaken pick to save the Lions. Delightful. The more things change...

3:45
I'm aware that this is a football blog, but this is a FANTASTIC NBA game I'm watching here between the Nuggets and the Hornets. I kind of wish this game would go overtime so we could skip Matt Stafford's obligatory walk on the stage. Or, as we've known it for several years, the Lions' obligatory screwup on draft day.

3:38
Hello and welcome to the second annual LIVE BLOG of the NFL Draft. I'm your host, Zac, and I'm coming to you live from Throwing Into Traffic Draft Central (read: Stolen University Internet and Cable) to give you pick by pick analysis. We'll be here throughout the first round, and probably into the second, so get ready for the good stuff. Keep refreshing, and as with most live blogs, it reads from the bottom up.