Southpaw Grammar

The final curtain

2008-07-03T06:10:00.000-07:00

Kurt Cobain’s suicide note included the Neil Young lyric ‘It’s better to burn out than fade away’, and that seems an apt sentiment when writing what will be the last post on this blog.

Other commitments leave me with precious little time to study the political happenings sufficiently, and I don’t want to be like George Best, Gazza or say Gun ‘n’ Roses come back from an extended hiatus bloated and pale shadow of their former selves. To be honest I haven’t bothered with politics, politics hasn’t bothered me and I simply do not have the desire to return to it.

I have a read of a few blogs now and again, but my record label is where it is at right now. www.myspace.com/engineeringconsentpr

I am sure I will be remembered due to me losing my job down the bay, well to those people who shunned me after that, supposed friends who turned even after the dust has settled – I am sure I will bump into you in the real world, no hiding behind anon comments then.

“Champagne for my real friends, real pain for my sham friends.”

Adios.

Guess who is back?

2008-06-20T01:50:00.000-07:00

So fully rested and about to jet off to the Costa del sol, I shall be returning to sporadic blogging about politics upon my return. I can safely say besides a little weekly browse on blogs, the guardian and western mail and the odd bit of BBC news I have had a complete rest from politics. My appetite is hardly restored, and this will be reflected in the blog widening some of the issues it writes about, but none the less I look forward to getting going again.

My new project has been the record label/press agency/promotions company Engineering Consent – which you can see at www.myspace.com/engineeringconsentpr . The label made its first signing last week – www.myspace.com/thearteries who will be releasing their album in October. I have also booked the first Engineering Consent gig –

Secondsmile (www.myspace.com/secondsmile)
Caesars Rome (www.myspace.com/caesarsrome)
Dirty Goods

Ten Feet Tall, Cardiff, August 20th – Come along, it’s only a fiver.

My son is currently undergoing some issues regarding the shape of his skull, which has been putting a huge strain on our family, however it appears now we have a diagnosis we can at the very least go forward with the correct, although hugely expensive treatment.

The only thing political I would like to say is regarding Alun Cairns, a man of hugely differing politics to myself. Alun is a thoroughly decent guy who I have met a couple of times, and had the good grace to afford me the same support when I was under scrutiny. Although his comments were wrong, something he has been clear about, all this calling for his head clearly misunderstands everything I can safely say about Alun – that he is a nice guy and a thatcherite, and uneasy thing for me to say!! Haha.

I had a fellow Labour blogger in Wales, who shall remain nameless, message me on MSN to ask me should Dafydd El and Alun Cairns be sacked – I said no and he should get a grip. I still stick to that.

Working Class Heroes

2008-05-20T14:39:00.000-07:00

Check out one of the bands i am going to be working with on my new project...

Working Class Heroes

Temporary Hiatus

2008-05-15T02:15:00.000-07:00

This is a pretty easy decision, because I am so rushed off my feet, but I fancy taking May off blogging. This only a ‘temporary hiatus’, unless something really juicy comes along, but I have like a million and one things going on;

Kyran Raymond Warner
Engineering Consent
Being the community councillor for Griffithstown West in Torfaen
Trying to write a political pamphlet with a colleague

I am cutting corners with my blog at the moment, churning it out at speed in my lunch hour and not taking the time to stew on things and think about it some more. My blog was not meant to a ‘daily’ one of essentially copy and pasting other people’s work with an attempt of a sub-Guido Fawkes ‘witty comment’ at the bottom (which is what certain bloggers do), but a few times a week attempt at commentary. I need to return it to that me thinks. I am happy to admit there are issues I have not been clear enough or robust enough, allowing this blog to slide somewhat; I hold my hand up an admit that through my own lack of care and attention to my thoughts and views, I have allowed myself to appear to lack clarity in my views. Thankfully the more thoughtful contributors to my blog have recognised this, some bone headed have decided to throw stones. Ce la vie…

So after a bit of time out, it will return with the mantra ‘more is less’;

Bread of Bevan.

2008-05-14T08:16:00.001-07:00

The Bevan Foundation has produced what appears to be (I promise a subscription will be coming forthwith on pay day) a damning report on the Welsh Assembly Government’s investment in the ‘Heads of the Valleys’ area of Wales. Cue much debate, a cornucopia of different political interests jostling for position, and a new announcement by Leighton Andrews AM restating investment and commitment to tackling some of the worst deprivation in the UK.

In my humblest, the most difficult debates to have and problems to solve are when all the views are partially right in some way. So while the ‘chain of weatherspoons’ quip from the Bevan Foundation not only makes good copy but is on the whole correct, also is the view that the Welsh Assembly Government has invested heavily in the area. Coupled with this is Dai Davies MP’s view in today’s South Wales Argus that funding should be in the hands of the ‘people’ who it is aimed at, which again seems to be eminently sensible up to a certain point.

I think one excellent point made by the Bevan Foundation is about the reference to the ‘Wales Millennium Centre’, something I believed was pointed as a ‘the WAG have chucked money at this cultural white elephant while not spending it on the abject poverty twenty minutes away’ message.

The problem is that we are in the grip of a wooly ‘cultural’ mindset permeating through our welsh political elite; let’s cut the waffle, I am more than happy to cut the funding to these ‘cultural’ investments to use them to alleviate poverty. The problem is that no one will dare utter those words in the Senedd, although I have heard this view expressed in private.

I know I am being over simplistic in this; who should get £600,000 over three years? The setting up of Y Byd vs. Communities in poverty in Blaenau Gwent? Or the Wales Millenium Centre Bailout vs. regeneration of the valleys?

Of course, there will be those who will, perhaps with some justification, fudge the issue to say it is not ‘either/or’; but my understanding is that you can only spend money once, and particularly in a governmental institution with a fixed budget. Whereas the issue of tax is the lifeblood in how we tackle poverty and the like in Westminster , the meat on the bone in Wales is whether we need to make real tough choices in a tight, fixed budget. I know people will mention that it is this that is the real problem, but that is another debate.

One of my objections to the ‘One Wales’ agreement was the watering down of Welsh Labour’s ’25,000 apprenticeships’ commitment, but the ease in adding a “Higher Education Network - the Federal College - in order to ensure Welsh-medium provision in our universities.”

I want to make clear it is not about whether such things are inherently wrong, indeed many of them seem correct, but it is about priorities. As mam used to say; “You can’t spend money twice son.”

Ultimately, and I made this point on the child poverty targets; we need to spend big and go long to really make a difference

My new record label...

2008-05-13T07:49:00.001-07:00

My blogging has been on the back burner at the moment because of my new project;

Engineering Consent

Anyway, check out the website, listen to the bands I am working with and support the label once it starts releasing. Needless to say this whole venture is going to ‘buy local’ where it can, be that studio, pressing, design and the like.

I believe that the creative industry is an industry Wales’ is missing a trick on;

I will be articulating this view on the ‘Wales @ Work’ programme on Radio Wales in June, which will focus on the future of the welsh music industry.

There will be blood...

2008-05-12T06:19:00.000-07:00

There seems to be the delayed reaction to the drubbing Welsh Labour took in the local elections and I must admit I find the lack of Assembly Members coming forward to me highlights the lack strategic direction needed post Rhodri Morgan within the Welsh Assembly group. I know this not to be true, however confining it to internal party discussion, and worse leaving it until the leadership election, is simply not sufficient in my view.

Lynne Neagle, for the all accusations that she is speaking on behalf of someone else, has more or less raised what is a pretty hard to argue against case. Of course, Lynne is my AM in Torfaen, which probably took the biggest battering in Wales. I am great believer that in the road to recovery shake up, then everyone takes a bit of blame, so I feel the lack of mention of Torfaen slightly colours her view somewhat. In the same way we cannot blame Gordie for the problems for Labour in Wales, we equally cannot blame Rhodri Morgan for the massive losses in Torfaen.

Normal Mouth, with the usual skill he is known for, nails the key argument; an argument that I have made previously a number of times. Labour needs to give up on the notion that the hegemony of yesteryear is going to return, it isn’t; pluralism is not only the product of the electoral system at Welsh Assembly level, it is the will of the electorate who actually do not mind politicians actually working together to get the job done. The quicker we as a party realise that we need to ditch, as I have heard come from a Welsh Labour MPs mouth, ‘if we didn’t have this stupid voting system we wouldn’t be in this mess’ chip on its shoulder the better. You know what, I am not afraid to sometimes admit where others have got it right, and also that people aren’t voting for Plaid, Conservative, Lib Dem and Independent to be ‘anti-labour’, soon to return to Labour. They are using their vote positively because they believe they offer them something they like, and in the case of the independents I think it is a sign that local council level parties are not always the best way of delivering such localised politics.

Peter Hain I think also made a telling contribution, one which is well thought out and I think has its finger on the pulse. Wales is changing, the old ties are disappearing, the ones that still exist are weakening, it is time to consider that reality.

My one final point is about the non appearance of ‘Idea Wales’;

I was encouraged by its creation, I emailed to try and get involved, I received no reply. Wait a go hey?

Hello...

2008-05-12T02:32:00.001-07:00

The great benefit I see in blogging is not the virtual soapbox it gives you to impart your wisdom on the world (well, the 50 people the who read welsh political blogs), but the fact that it is a forum to not only give my own views but see them challenged and in turn amend them accordingly. What was so enticing about ‘The Future of Socialism’ by Tony Crosland was its commitment to being revisionist and taking agreed values but amending them to the time you are currently in. Political and societal realities change, even electoral realities have a part to play, but one thing this blog will never be is an ideas factories that will stick dogmatically to a view regardless of reasoned debate. For me, ideas should be fluid, not without substance, but not stuck in stodgy dogma. If I see a well argued idea or view, I will take it on board, digest it with a view to injecting into my fermenting of views.

So, what is he waffling on about I hear you ask? well I feel that there is much to chew on regarding my posts on the welsh language; including me needing to take on board some of the different views (not attempts at ‘witty’ comments from some) and considering my own. I think firstly, as is always the case, I have been slightly misrepresented, deliberately by some, others are my own fault. I honestly believe I am a far better ‘post’ writer than ‘comment’ writer, that is not because I do not like my view challenged, but because I am often too hasty and too prickly to take the time to think. In person I believe I am far more likely to show my true colours and be more thoughtful and diplomatic.

Moving forward, I think there will always be people looking to go after me, I accept that; I have been called ‘a kid’, a ‘Anti-Welsh Labourite’ (something like that anyway) as well as being challenged with some very thoughtful and pretty convincing opposing arguments. I think there will always be ‘truths’ that can never be decided within debates, that is the ebb and flow, the lifeblood of political debate. I want to make clear a few points on the welsh language, because I think through my own lack of skill in expressing my views, and some baying for blood from others I haven’t been clear enough.

• The overriding point I wanted to make was that in the comments section I was rehearsing arguments I have heard many times, I feel that although I may not agree with those views sometimes, there deserves to be an honest debate.
• I was the first year in school to ever be taught welsh at year 7 level, I threw myself into learning the language, got myself an a* no less only to be frustrated by the simple lack of avenues for me to learn further and develop the language.
• S4C- my point was about Rhodri Glyn Thomas not wanting to devolve it, and also I have yet to hear any of the posters on my blog answer the ‘most subsidised, per viewer, channel in the world’ point. I was in no way advocating it being abolished or losing public subsidy, but I cannot believe the WAG are demanding a welsh language LCO but not for S4C.
• Ultimately I am calling for a debate on where we go with welsh language policy, One Wales, indeed all politicians will tell you they want ‘a bi-lingual’ society, but that simply will not happen. Firstly because people haven’t the inclination, and secondly because the cost to try and implement that will be great. I am happy the WAG supports the welsh language, I am less happy about the fact that there is no questioning about whether it is prudent to merely carrying on investing more and more.
• Also, my ire was directed at the ‘economic’ point- the welsh language doesn’t have an economic benefit in terms of us competing, that in turn does not mean I think everything has to be ‘economically’ beneficial to be correct.
• However, the one gentleman’s comment about the economy of S4C in terms of the local media companies that survive because of S4C’s grant is one I haven’t considered, and I am glad to say it is a very good point. Like I said, job done.
• Ultimately I think that ‘linguistic diversity’ is a two way street, I think to impose a language policy that is about compulsion on a wales-wide basis is not correct because there are massive amounts of Wales who would struggle to meet those demands. Why should any business, regardless of size, in Chepstow have to deliver the same amount of welsh language services as somewhere in a welsh speaking area? If you take that to the Nth degree then we don’t actually have enough welsh speakers to physically service that policy.

The salient message is this, I am still looking at my views and revising them, some of you are very welcome contributors and I thank you.

Alwyn, a man who is hardly ‘anti welsh’ makes a very good point about educating in Welsh…

“Sir Wyn's policy seemed to be good idea at the time, but if it isn't working it must use up a huge amount of resources (not just financial) which might be better used to support the language in more effective ways.”

It is about questioning and revising our approach, not being scorched earth about it….

Thanks

2008-05-09T15:24:00.000-07:00

Many thanks for those who have stimulated passionate debate on the welsh language. I will be posting about the great positives of the language, including my own effort to learn this language from scratch tomorrow. I am not going to engage in name calling, it lowers the tone of an important debate i feel.

I also think people need to read closely, i believe i made clear that i was rehearsing arguments with some of my points, rather than making my own views clear. I feel this debate will never be conducted fairly because it involves politicos who have a very different expectation and place far more importance on cultural issues.

However, can i take this opportunity to say, thanks for making my blog a hot house of debate, its very intention is being fulfilled.

Marcus

Let slay a dragon...

2008-05-09T01:43:00.000-07:00

Ian, a man I enjoy debating with, has given me the pleasure of a detailed answer to my earlier post about the welsh language. I have offered him the same token here, I really hope, despite the rushed nature of this response, I can really expose some of the mistruths, myths and damn right untruths about the ‘benefits’ Ian describe. There are times when I am putting arguments, rather than my own true beliefs, but overall I think I have unpicked as much as I can.

“For starters, the biggest Welsh employer and importer of revenue is tourism and one of the biggest growth sectors within it is cultural tourism.”

‘Cultural’ can mean many things though Ian, and the majority of those benefits have nothing to with the Welsh Language. I live near Big Pit in Blaenavon, the roman remains and baths in Caerleon, being able to speak welsh will have no benefit on those two examples. A tourist ‘industry’ will only thrive if we get people from outside Wales to come here, none of those will speak welsh. For welsh culture, you shouldn’t read welsh language.

“Also, the media element in both languages is helping Wales to punch well above its weight.”

I do not understand what you are getting at here, but there simply isn’t a model for a sustainable ‘welsh only’ media, still less market for ‘welsh speaking’ media. Consider the debate over Y Byd, no subsidy, no paper, ditto S4C. There is simply not the demand for such entities to survive without huge government subsidy. I would have happily supported a new welsh daily newspaper, more so an online one you subscribe, if it included BOTH English and Welsh, but it didn’t. Again there is a chasm between wooly cultural beliefs and the reality of wasting money on loss making entities to tick boxes.

“As far as Welsh medium education is concerned, the ability for young people to pick up other languages when educated bilingually is now clearly accepted both in Wales and across the globe, via numerous independent studies.”

But then this once again warps ends and means, I agree with you being bilingual is of benefit to children’s education and life chances, but why does mean they learn welsh? Why not mandarin? French? Spanish? German? All those languages have more ‘real world’ value to our economy. To me we are missing a trick, we providing the correct education platform of early intervention to have bilingual young people, but miss out on further opportunities by teaching them a language that is redundant outside of pockets of our country. PLEASE NOTE, I am not advocating NOT teaching welsh in schools, however I am saying it has no ECONOMIC benefit.

“Please also name any firm that has either left Wales or refused to come to Wales because of a bilingual policy.”

Misses the point, the point is that resource could be spent on other workers rights or benefits. It is a whole range of things that need to be in place to deliver a new welsh language act, and for what benefit? 1% takeup and you deciding ‘we should take it up more, just so it is used more’. Tokenistic waffle.

“What devolution has done is to make people question exactly where monies are spent and how effective that spending is.”

This is wrong a number of levels, firstly, and I know this because I have tried; you cannot get a freedom of information request for declaration of how much the welsh language costs the welsh assembly government for love no money. I want to know how much in pounds and pence what ‘promoting’ the welsh language costs the taxpayer. Secondly, there is no really ‘questioning’ because the orthodoxy is that if you dare question you are ‘anti-welsh’, ‘anti-wales’ or a dinosaur. Even yesterday’s announcement said they ‘are moving with the times’, you are yesterday’s man for questioning the year on year increase in spending on the language.

“For instance, I know of a person involved in language support, who is often astonished at the huge sums spent on translating huge unheard of public documents, when the same monies could be spent far more effectively in developing Welsh in communities.”

We agree, but once again I refer to the point about orthodoxy, why cannot we change this? Why can’t we have a tick box that says ‘do you want this form in welsh?’.

“S4C has done a huge amount to save and re-vitalise the language, but there needs to be more openness in terms of tendering contracts and its spending priorities.”

No, GOVERNMENT has re-vitalised the language, S4C hasn’t. S4C has been the beneficiary of that drive to save the language, not a tool to do so. Their viewing figures are pitiful, they are secretive because they know full well what the figures will say, that it is ring fenced rip off. Again I would ask for a channel that is ‘welsh’, but has equal amounts of English and Welsh speaking programming. While welsh speakers have risen, S4Cs figures have plummeted, and will do so even more post-digital switchover.

“I'm afraid that Scottish Gaelic is too far gone and Irish has suffered from being created and seen as the language of the institution.”

To many people welsh is going the same way, Welsh was not ‘too far gone’ because it has been promoting and spent so heavily on by government, the scots and irish decided to not follow that path. Also, consider that to increasing amounts of welsh people, welsh language issues are increasingly perceived as the domain of the political elite. I know there are many working people who demand language rights, but it is about perception.

“The reason why I believe Welsh has a chance and can lift us economically as well as culturally, is because the demand is now greatest in the Council estates and terraces of the so-called anglicised South”

How do you lift yourself ‘culturally’? Doesn’t something like the grand slam do that? It is pretty amorphous concept at the best. The reason fundamentally that welsh medium education is on the rise, and this from a person who is considering said education for my son, is that there is ‘welsh speaking premium’ in Wales. All the public sector jobs of repute are now cut off from monoglots, another things is that welsh medium education is left at the school gates by 99% of being in the ‘anglicised South’. They don’t use that language other than to pass GCSE’s, surely this is the ‘language of the institution’.

“In conclusion, I believe that a bilingual Wales will help sell us around the World as a unique place both to visit, work and live and with the globe becoming smaller by the day through digital media etc, I believe that it will give us a real edge.”

Again, you use the language as the driver of this, the welsh language will not bring a single tourist, a single media consumer or skilled migrant worker from outside Wales because of its uniqueness. Again, ‘cultural’ is simply not a by word for the ‘welsh language’.

Cherry picking on the welsh language?

2008-05-08T04:44:00.001-07:00

So, you may think, due to my opposition to any new Welsh Language Act that enforces all businesses to offer their wares in Welsh, that I would be slightly perturbed by this announcement. Well, it does make me roll my eyes somewhat, but all in all I agree with the ‘public service’ ethos of what the WAG are driving at. Funny how the very same Plaid supporters, and others that make up what is a pretty well resourced welsh language lobby, weeks after bemoaning the closure of post offices (with some justification perhaps), are now celebrating burdening that network with even more costs that the private sector does not have to matter. I mean ‘wait a bloody go’!

It is also very funny then, that in response to my letter highlighting that S4C is, according to Dr. Justin Lewis, ‘the most, Rhodri Glyn Thomas took the view that ‘is of the opinion that S4C should NOT be devolved to the Welsh Assembly Government’. I mean surely this beacon of the campaign for the welsh language to have equal rights would be the jewel in the crown to be devolved?

The fact of the matter is that you bring it to Cardiff Bay, you bring more visibility to what it actually costs the same body who delivers our health service and our schools; exactly the reason why Mr Glyn Thomas is so keen to keep it hidden away in the UK Department for Culture, who for fear of ‘offending cultural sensitivities’ will happily keep paying for the most ‘subsidised, per viewer channel in Europe if not the world’.

I find it odd this the ‘keeping with the times’ orthodoxy of this announcement. Essentially what that means is that it is keeping with the times and agenda of Cardiff Bay polity, not it would seem public opinion.

Lazily, people will call me something resembling ‘anti welsh’ for even dare challenging this orthodoxy, and lazy people are not really my concern. My point is one of principle, I want the Welsh Assembly Government to stop cherry picking and allow for a debate and proper accountability of how our money is spent on the welsh language. This includes S4C, and looking forward, if we are to achieve a ‘bi-lingual’ Wales, justifying the massive amounts of increased investment it will need to achieve that. So the challenge is there, why is the WAG wanting to have the remit of welsh language policy, some of which I think will be a hindrance to our ability to compete economically, but not S4C. Wheat and chaff needs to be justified.

All Wales Covention- miracle worker needed.

2008-05-08T01:31:00.000-07:00

The First Minister’s way with words aside, the salient point regarding becoming a member of the All Wales Convention Committee is that it will always under deliver when it tries to promote inclusivity. My own view is that this does appear to be quite a complex matter that will need to be looked at, so to it is slightly bordering on silly to make the claim that ‘ordinary people’ could realistically form part of it. Also, ordinary people on the whole have no interest in politics, governance and the like, this simply will not motivate people outside of those already involved or at the least interested.

The bigger problem I have, and a point I made on Valleys Mam’s blog is about the actual process and commitment needed to be part of the committee. Let’s declare and interest here, I would have loved to be a committee member and have a part to play but not only do I have to attend regular meetings, but meetings across Wales, and with ‘expenses’ being offered. This immediately rules out the average person who works 9-5 Monday-Friday being involved; as much as my employers are amazingly flexible with my other commitments, I wouldn’t even be rude enough to ask them whether I can have regular time off to travel around Wales to meetings on the future governance of Wales.

That’s the nub, it is almost subtle discrimination, not overtly so, because I genuinely believe that the people involved want to engage with ordinary working people in the convention. I understand the problem to for th0e One Wales Government; The thing you either don’t try and be inclusive, and be called elitist, or you try and be called tokenistic.

I will tell you what, I will apply, I am going to find out more of the detail and pass a full judgement then.

The thing is the convention is what we need participating people in, despite its noble aims and slightly one sided remit (it won’t deliver a report saying the people of Wales do not want further devolution). The key is to get people to vote on the referendum, not really sit on some kangaroo court that will decide when the referendum is held. Perhaps the convention will be a vehicle to engender interest, perhaps it won’t, but one thing is for certain that politician’s still seem to be unaware of what working people’s lives actually entails in terms of trying to commit the amount of time and effort to become a member of the committee.

Paperback writer

2008-05-07T03:52:00.000-07:00

Here is the text of a letter I wrote to the South Wales Argus today…

As a young member of the Labour Party who has just become a community councillor in Torfaen, I was dismayed at the results in the local elections. These are terrible results and a clear message that Labour needs to reconnect with communities that have supported the party for generations. I think firstly recognising that the electorate are not merely voting ‘against Labour’ or indeed that their votes for others are only used in protest is the first step on a long road to recovery.

So while it is clear national and in some case international factors are driving these results, there has been a long term hollowing out at Labour support in South East Wales. What I want to make clear to voters as someone who perhaps represents the next generation of Labour candidate and activist is that we as a party are not only licking our wounds but will also redouble our efforts to win back your support which we had perhaps become too complacently used to.

This is not a slight on what has gone before, or indeed the many great Labour councillors and ex-councillors who have served with distinction, but a message that things need to change and that my party will be doing all it can to be ‘agents of change’ in South East Wales. I hope that out of these results will form a new beginning for both the Labour Party and its relationship with the people of South East Wales.

Time is the key.

2008-05-06T06:15:00.001-07:00

It is very interesting, if a little open to the charge of constitutional minutiae being the refuge for the mad and the political but not the electorate, that the debate about the referendum to establish a full welsh parliament is not being held in the context of when and not if. Normal Mouth and Alwyn, both bloggers I regularly read, offer very different analysis’, of course people will very unlikely be surprised that I agree with NM more than Alwyn; however this is primarily driven by the leap of faith at the centre of Alwyn’s analysis-

“If a snap referendum was held tomorrow all the signs seem to suggest that it would be won by the YES side.”

I simply cannot see the evidence of this assumption, especially with anything like an empirical measure such as repeated polling giving clear messages, or even voting patterns for party’s committed to further devolution. The biggest winners at this year’s local elections are the biggest opponents to further devolution, although I would hasten to add that is not exactly any semblance of proof of any view on devolution per se, it does however look positively crystal compared to the evidence that ‘signs seems to suggest that it would be won by the YES side’. We have very little polling, and even the ones we have had have included the evidence that MOST PEOPLE DON’T EVEN KNOW WHO IS IN GOVERNMENT IN SENEDD. So whereas I am committed to securing a yes vote, I am agnostic to the view that we would win a yes vote very soon without going out and winning the argument over time. This includes not only highlighting that the current powers are a malaise, but also making sure the assembly is using what it has got to its best ability, that includes making sure One Wales delivers a united and successful administration.

I believe as NM, Glyn Davies and the like believe, that time will provide the devolutionist cause to really bed into people’s psyche and deliver a full welsh parliament, I personally am not prescriptive about the date being set in stone, what I am prescriptive about is making sure we bloody win. This is not the time for dogma underpinned by the ‘fixed bayonets, onward march’ rhetoric of some of the less thoughtful nationalists, but about winning the arguments as and when they are needed. Getting the conservative party on board represents a real coup for the devolutionist cause, haranguing people like Glyn Davies for having the temerity to suggest that we delay the referendum will not achieve that. It is funny that at a time where the ‘yes’ vote needs the reality of all the parties being ‘onside’ with the yes vote, the nationalists are striving to divide the yes vote by continuing to drawn lines in the sand.

The key is to appeal to those tacticians within all the parties and the public, not just the outright supporters of further devolution, to really get a successful outcome. Even the most lumpen headed nationalist must see that a Conservative Government in Westminster will be a boon for a full welsh parliament, but who cares about that we have to shout swivel eyed rubbish about ‘now or never’.

Purnell.

2008-05-06T05:02:00.000-07:00

As much as he has come in for some stick on this blog previously, James Purnell MP has got this spot on.

Here we go.

2008-05-05T02:58:00.000-07:00

One thing that is very clear, Gordon Brown, the Government and the party at large will not be short of advice being offered to solve their woes. Matthew Taylor‘s offers some excellent advice, and Andrew Rawnsley pretty much calls it straight and true.

The difficulty is that it is very different to alter a political narrative, particularly in a press environment whose job it is to engender a simple narrative for their readers/listeners/viewers. I think the salient point is one of making changes that are few and bold, rather than the scatter bomb ‘flurry’ of announcements. I would firm up the commitment to meeting the child poverty targets, and thereby call Cameron’s bluff on turning the ‘aspiration’ into a commitment to ending child poverty. This can be communicated in simple terms and in ways that will appeal to different swathes of voters in different ways.

The great appeal of something like the child poverty commitment is that it probably wins as many votes in middle class ‘liberally minded’ households as it does in the areas that see the most benefit from children being pulled out of poverty. It has the ability to be communicated simply and in language that resonates, ‘No child in poverty by 2020, no child with poor health, poor education and no prospects’. Poverty is a scourge that people understand needs to be rid of in the 21st century.

Being totally honest, nothing may change the electoral reality of the situation, a long time government is never a popular one, but ‘more of the same’ will kill us.

Moving on to a post mortem esque tone, we got a kicking, we are getting it wrong and we need to change. I also cannot bring myself to tow the government line about that it is merely about Labour voters staying at home, or that they are voting for others to 'protest' about Labour. I would never be as complacent to suggest that these people are merely choosing Plaid, independents or Lib Dems because they are annoyed at labour. My own view is that this is concrete proof that Labour has pushed the working class heartlands too far this time, and this combined with electoral gravity is the reason we have done so badly. We need to consider as a party what we are actually for, rather than us being so terrified about it being misconstrued to be a message of what we are against.

The one thing i would say, and it is oft ignored in the media, is that in the valleys the rise of the 'independents' is a myth. It is more to do with the rise of people deciding to jump the Labour Party ship and become 'independent' candidates, thereby being a bit of a teflon candidate. The genuine independents (not disgruntled ex-labour) have been cast aside by some of these charlatans. The rise of the independents in my valley is about egos between the same old faces, not a the birth of a new political movement.

Compass gives us all some direction

2008-05-02T10:50:00.001-07:00

A message from Neal Lawson, Chair of Compass to which i belong and support.

New Labour is now dead: election results reaction

New Labour is now dead. The strategy that saw the Party continually triangulate interests and concerns, tacking endlessly to the right, doing what the Tories would do only doing it first, fixating on a mythical middle England and denying that free market policies are having a damaging effect on society is now finished.

The atrocious results from last night clearly show that the Blairite strategy, revived by Gordon Brown, of targeting middle class votes while assuming the working class would back the Party come what may, no longer holds. The working class are now staying home or voting for anyone other than Labour as an alternative to the Tories. Millions still identify with the Party but won’t back it because its policies and rhetoric is alienating them.

There is now no point trying to pile up middle class support in southern seats if our core vote is deserting us and destroying our voting base. At the same moment sections of the middle class are voting for the Tories for the first time since the late 1980s. On issues like civil liberties, well being and even audaciously on poverty – David Cameron is setting the terms of debate. This pincer movement is squeezing the life out of the government. The whole electoral strategy of New Labour is in tatters.

Compass has been saying this since 2005 when we analysed the data from that election. It was clear then, with 4.5 million voters lost since 1997 that the Party was heading for trouble. Only a change of direction will renew the Party’s electoral fortunes.

The issue is not whether Labour is a party of the middle class or the working class. It has to be both. That was the genius of the 1997 voting bloc. The leadership of the Party must now accept that the same issues affect voters in Reading as in Rotherham; insecurity and anxiety caused by flexible labour markets, the lack of affordable housing, sharp price rises, concerns about pensions, worries about securing places in local schools, immigration and the widening gap between the rich and the poor. But while this pervasive insecurity affects everyone it is the lower social groups who pay the heaviest price. A fresh start is not just an ideological necessity but an electoral imperative.

We must have a vision and a set of policies that unite common interests and concerns. Brown said in the autumn that he would delay the election to set out his vision for the country. Six months on no one is any the wiser. Instead he has panicked and pressed the rewind button back to the failed politics of Blairism. The working class have not just been ignored but attacked on issues such as social housing, benefits and now the 10p tax rate. Trade Union action in defence of workers rights and conditions have also been criticised. John Hutton says the rich should be celebrated! It is little wonder that these people don’t vote for us and particularly alarming that regrettably some seem to have backed the BNP.

And when the middle class face university tuition fees, long term care costs, white collar jobs being outsourced to India and when economic good fortune turns against us – the scale of the political and electoral task facing Labour becomes clear. If Brownism is just Blairism without the economic boom then the Party is finished.

Everyone is working hard and playing by the rules but a political and economic system that prioritises the needs of the rich over everyone else is always going to disappoint.

For a moment Brown did hold out the hope of change. The messages early on were about limits to the privatisation of health and education, affordable housing, a new moral direction symbolised by the cancellation of the Manchester supercasino, an emphasis on liberty and meaningful constitutional reform. But these were never followed through. It was the moment he became the Prime Minister for continuity not change that the polls turned against the government and has now led to this disastrous set of local election results.

The long term damage to the Labour Party is becoming clear. Jon Cruddas warned in the Deputy Leadership campaign that the Party was being hollowed out. Membership is at an all time low and will fall further now nearly another 300 councillors have been wiped out; as these are usually the only people who keep local parties going. Thousands of people didn't even have a Labour candidate to vote for last night. The Party has huge and unsustainable debts because it chose to rely on the donations of a few rich individuals rather than building and engaging with a wider membership base.

At the time of writing we don’t know how Ken Livingstone has faired in London. The result will obviously be close. He has out polled Labour and has been dragged down by issues like the 10p tax rate. From the congestion charge to the environment he has been brave and pursued a more radical politics. But within the constraints of a City dominated by the distorting effects of financialised capitalism and a national Party that refuses to make society the master of the market Ken was always going to find it tough.

Can Labour recover? Only if the government once again embraces change. The move must be made quickly or the Party will suffer the consequences.

Change needs to be signalled through a new narrative and a set of supporting polices. The needs of society must come before those of the economy. New Labour is still trapped in the Thatcherite refrain that There Is No Alternative. But the fallibility of free markets is now apparent to everyone.

From Northern Rock, to the credit crunch and the Governor of the Bank of England condemning City pay excesses – the moment is ripe for Brown and his Cabinet to assert a need and a willingness to put the interest of society first. Nothing is holding them back than their own timidity.

A new narrative for Britain must be based on the eternal centre-left values of liberty, equality and solidarity. The trick is how we apply them in the world today.

In policy terms he must:

· Ensure the tax system is fair with those at the top paying their proper share and the greatest burden should not fall on those at the bottom.

· Drop detention for 42 days as well as ID cards and reverse the decision on Trident and use the money to invest in public services and close the gap between the rich and the poor.

· The government must meet its targets to end child poverty by 2020.

· The commercialisation of public services should be halted – modernisation and efficiency should be secured via greater democracy and co-production.

· Concrete proposals for affordable social housing must be brought forward quickly.

· Constitutional reform must be fast tracked. Proposals for the Lords, and real devolution to local government should be quickly embraced.

· Concerns over immigration can be eased by proper rights for agency workers.

· The Deputy Leader of the Party must come forward with a plan to revive the Labour Party and engage its members in key decisions.

But Compass now refuses to wait for Gordon or anyone else. Later this month we are going to launch a vision and policy process that will engage not only every section of the Labour movement but progressives outside of Labour and the party political system in pressure groups, communities, academics, unions and other think tanks. It will be the biggest policy and ideas creation process the country has seen. Compass will be inviting policy ideas and proposals and then debating them throughout the country at meetings and on the internet. In addition we will be writing a narrative on the state of Britain called The Challenge of Living in the 21st Century. The two will come together in the autumn to provide an intellectual and organisational platform and new social bloc capable not just of returning a Labour government but building a progressive consensus for democratic, egalitarian and sustainable change across the country.

Massacre

2008-05-02T02:23:00.000-07:00

Let me give it to you straight people, or lets shoot from the hip like my butty Dylan Jones-Evans would say, Labour was massacred in my seat in Torfaen. We lost half our councillors; we lost all three in my mother’s ward of New Inn and many others. The only positive is that we gained a councillor in my ward (which I will be community councillor in) of Panteg. This is not a comment loaded with accusations or finger wagging of where it all went wrong, I just thinking Labour got its kicking in an election where swings have to only be tiny to be decisive.

I personally have my own views on what could be done to improve this situation in the future, particularly in the local party, but I will reserve the right to offer these views to my comrades in the CLP first.

Blaenau Gwent looks pretty grim too.

Lack of posting.

2008-05-01T11:07:00.000-07:00

Excuse the lack of posting, one has been uber busy.

Thanks very much for the numerous comments, much appreciated.

A quick point, i havent posted about the local elections, good luck to all the Labour comrades. Personally no matter what the results are, i wont be searching for some overarching narrative. They dont have any impact on general or even assembly elections, simple as.

Will get back on the blogging wagon this evening, i will be doing drugs, well not DOING drugs because that would then be difficult to blog, but you get what i mean.

Marcus

Tom Miller.

2008-04-28T08:05:00.001-07:00

There is a fascinating post from my favourite english blogger, Tom Miller, on why he continues with Labour.

Socialism vs. Nationalism

2008-04-27T13:20:00.000-07:00

I have found immense value in the debate regarding the oft asked question of why one such as me continues to be a member of the Labour Party; not only because it has made me reaffirm my own commitment to the party's values, but because it has allowed i believe to take on board legimate questions.

Ian, a trade unionist and a Plaid member is a welcome and regular contributor to this blog, is a man i am pretty sure we would have little differences in real salience should we lay our political cards on the table. However, his passionate support of Plaid Cymru's 'socialism' although sincere is fertile ground to reaffirm my earlier points.

The real key issue i have with Ian's analysis that 'for the last 13 years' Labour has essentially disowned the likes of my own who support social democracy is a boon for my view regarding 'temporary political winds' not being the guiding force of joining of leaving a party. My history is hazy, but Plaid only came out the closet as a 'socialist' party in the early 1980s, a serious political party contesting for power since 1999, temporary political winds take a number of years to change direction, i wonder if Ian was a member of Plaid when they were not a centre left party?

That isnt a criticism of Ian or Plaid, but it is an observation on the point that the current leadership or indeed political climates are not stuck in time forever. Plaid supporters should know that more than anyone.

The second point that i would like to make is that by shoring up Plaid socialist credentials to me is that it sets them up for a fall, and low and behold this story falls into my lap. Firstly, if the Labour Party ever considered a coalition with the Tories in the Welsh Assembly or Westminster parliaments i will leave the party. However Ian and those Socialists within Plaid seem more than happy that their greatest mind and intellectual is actively considering, albeit agnostically, to work those great socialists the Conservative Party of Great Britain. Now of course, Plaid are happy to admit, as Helen Mary Jones did today on the Politics Show today, that this is a wheeze to get Cameron to help deliver them a full Welsh parliament and play his english centric approach to the fullest benefit to Plaid. This again totally backs up my claim about how Plaid support nationalism before socialism, and why i coulds never support them. Plaid arent a socialist party, they are a nationalist party who promote socialism, which is a very different thing and far less attractive thing than New Labour.

'Groundhog Day Politics' is my new slogan

2008-04-25T01:58:00.000-07:00

There are many myths that become ingrained into political debate that I believe we need to reopen to scrutiny and move ourselves out of the ‘Groundhog Day Politics’ dialogue that occurs each time such issues are discussed. For instance, I think it is simply not true to call someone or imply a party as somehow racist by questioning the continuing pace of immigration and perhaps looking at how we control it; New Labour has used this to great effect against the Tories in 2001 and 2005, but it has not, and never will actually mean we have a sensible debate about immigration. That does not mean I particularly have a stonewall idea of whether we should have quotas, limited immigration, a points based system or just allowing the status quo to continue, but my one idea is to actually free the debate from its lazy, shrill shackles of the current one we have.

Another example is seeming to happen in Wales over further devolution; there is a growing political consensus (there is a paucity of evidence to suggest this is the same with the electorate, although I have my hopes it does) that a full welsh parliament is moving from probable, to inevitable, to desirable, so the debate has now swung to not about whether but how. The grief Glyn Davies, a man so important to the cause because he is a truly respected devolutionist voice in a party who have the least natural appetite for further devolution, got over having the audacity to consider having the referendum occurring at a later a date, just shows how warped the nationalist leaning mind can be on these matters. It is not about being a ‘brit nat’ to consider having a referendum at a later date, it is about actually winning the bloody thing so we have a full welsh parliament. The problem is we get bogged down in the same stodgy but wholly irrelevant debate on an issue where there much consensus; so Plaid supporters are now offering shrill condemnation of anyone with the temerity to suggest caution with the timing under the premise of actually wanting to win the referendum as some being some sort of roadblock to the promised land. So this means that rather than winning the debate of actually delivering a welsh parliament we are having a political debate stifled in ‘guess the year’; read all about it, but I actually concur with the Conservatives caution despite my 100% support for a welsh parliament and the eventual move to considering self governance with an element of fiscal autonomy.

The third point I want to make, and this falls under the ‘political myths’ theme of the post (which doesn’t have a single salient point as such) is that centre left supporters are committed to higher taxes. That is simply not true, well it certainly isn’t for me. I think we have lost sight on any sort of notion of the positive elements of paying tax because we only ever have a ‘groundhog day’ debate about how highly we are taxed and all the waste. So the inheritance tax debate was framed as concern for the rich (5.3% of estates in Britain), but there simply no mention of what that money does to help the rest of us who struggle to pay the bills, and I even can vouch for personal experience on this one. My wife-to-be and my son are in line to inherit an amount that would not even be exempt under the Tory £1million pound limit, but I continue to be clear on the great value that money can deliver to wider society. I do not want higher tax, I want fairer tax and one which embosses the ability to pay on every single letter of tax policy. The great irony of the warped nature of Westminster ‘ground hog day’ debate is that it is always about the scourge of tax, aided and abetted by the CBI, the City and the Taxpayers Alliance. There is never no connection made in the debate between tax evasion and cuts in services, the actual morality of choosing to give someone on £30,000 a year a 2p cut as opposed to lifting millions on half that out of tax. How am I a tax raising militant when I want to move millions out of paying income tax all together?

So, while my reading is currently ‘Flat Earth News’ by Nick Davies; I think it is about time we discussed ‘Groundhog Day Politics’ by Southpaw Grammar.

Hafod be thy name...

2008-04-24T02:57:00.000-07:00

“I admire your honesty and candour regarding the wheels coming off New Labour's bandwagon so spectacularly. What I don't understand is why you're still on board.”

Hafod, a lucid contributor to blogs, left the following comment on my blog last week; I have been considering a response, a call to arms for the reasoning behind my continuing membership of the Labour Party.

So lets deal with the premise of Hafod’s comments firstly, for it is him/her who inspired this post.

I don’t think the ‘wheels have come off’ anything firstly, I believe Gordon Brown’s leadership has been one of bad strategic mistakes at times, far more bad luck with events he simply cannot control and the first credible tory opponent (at least with public opinion evidence) for nigh on a decade. I still firmly believe that Gordon Brown, and certainly the Labour Party is a strong and progressive vehicle to provide a fairer Great Britain and there are many achievements they can point to that I could list that I think would not have happened under any other party. I have recently enjoyed paternity leave, my partner a longer maternity leave; a direct result of the policies put in place by New Labour. My partner earns the minimum wage, and quite frankly the thought of her being at the mercy of her employers to set her wages makes me shudder. I have a number of gay friends who feel far more comfortable in their own skin to lead lives that with the help of the New Labour government’s policies to try and tackle homophobia and discrimination. This is not the ONLY or indeed probably the most IMPORTANT things Labour have done, but these are things that I have seen Government do that has made a difference but actually all the wheezing on blogs never talk about.

Secondly, and I think this is certainly something worth reading for Plaid Cymru supporters, there is the question of ‘where else is there to go?’

I am a democrat, so I believe that by partaking in the democratic process that you can make a difference to people’s lives; that is not to say I do not support or indeed agree with ‘alternative voices’ outside of mainstream politics, but I will always support the premise of ‘being the change in the world you want to see’. I want to see a different politics, democracy and representation of working people; I am willing to put my neck on the line and want to get elected to make this happen. Being a cynical, mocking critic is just analysis but no solution- ‘I told you so’ playground politics. So the chances of me joining some of the ‘other’ hard left parties is not going to happen because I don’t feel they talk about the reality, and have even less grip on actually being able to be an agent of change.

There will be many, perhaps credibly, that would argue that Plaid Cymru are a far more genuine centre left party than ‘NEW’ Labour (emphasis is mine). Quite frankly, I have never heard a sane argument for nationalism, particular as a child of a globalised, interconnected world, and if you ask a Plaid Cymru member (or indeed as I am asking now) would you prefer an independent Wales or a social democratic Britain- they would choose the former. New Labour rightward swings to win target seats are far more understandable than nationalism ever will be to me.

Just to make clear, it is very easy, as I have seen with some of the other Welsh Labour blogs to take the view that we just throw our eggs in the welsh basket and support a full welsh parliament because ‘welsh’ Labour is more ‘real’ Labour than ‘London’ Labour. I find that is a sneaky way to support something, although that maybe a pleasing by-product of a full welsh parliament, it is not acceptable to support major constitutional change for a country on the basis of what could be temporary political winds. I support self governance for Wales because I genuinely think it is the fair thing to do and is pretty much the only thing that is likely to occur- I do not support independence, but self governance; these are very different things. I am more than happy to answer questions on that to define this better…

The last point in answer to Hafod’s ‘why are you still on board?’ question, which is fair to ask and worth me answering, is that I think it is disloyal and betraying my values to jump ship of what are often temporary political winds. I a member of the Labour Party, not the Labour government; and within the party I am encouraged of the green shoots of progressive growth within the young members of our political membership, and my eternal optimism means that I still remain hopeful that a my generation have the potential to lead a different party. Is it so crazy to consider a full welsh parliament, a more explicitly social democratic Labour Party within that and a country who values that approach? To me this is not something to leave, but to work even harder than I have been to make happen.

Is it so bad to consider that a spell in opposition, a change of strategy and luck and in the future a new leader in Westminster may forge a change in government policy? To see Jon Cruddas as a key voice rather than John Hutton. Politician are often reflections of the times they work in; my adult life will be about saving the planet that simply cannot use market based solutions, it will be about reinstating democratic participation and tackling rampant inequality; these are challenges that enthuse me and I am confident the next generation of Labour members can solve.

A blog about bloggers.

2008-04-20T13:13:00.000-07:00

Can i offer a huge warm 'welcome back' to Ordovicius aka Sanddef, me and the man have crossed political swords many a time; but it is a great boon for the blogosphere that he has returned from travelling.

I also had the honour of being linked on Dylan Jones-Evans' blog post about a fairer tax system. Despite us offering different views on certain things, but also alot of coalescing views, he is a great thinker and i hope one day in the future we are BOTH AM's in the future. I think Dylan's time deserves to be far before mine anyway.

Will be posting back on politics tomorrow...