Gatlinburg Real Estate Blog

2008-07-12T06:24:00.001-05:00

Just Another 1 BR Cabin With No View

I spent a good part of yesterday doing some research for a Broker Price Opinion or BPO for a bank that has foreclosed on yet another property here. As a part of my report I reviewed the latest stats for one bedroom cabins. As I have mentioned in an earlier post, this portion of our market was one that saw the most dramatic excesses. Not surprisingly it is now one of the hardest hit segments of our Gatlinburg/Pigeon Forge/Sevierville real estate market.

These very small one bedroom cabins often on postage stamp size lots sold for ridiculous prices as recently as 2006 but the reckoning since then has been very severe indeed. At the height of the insanity many of these 1 bedroom, 1 bath 500 square foot cabins on planned unit development lots sold for over $250,000. In some cases the developments had superb design and amenities but the price/value calculation still never really made sense to me. I chose not to sell these properties even though they were all the rage for a while.

Today is a different matter entirely. There are currently listed in our Great Smoky Mountain Association of Realtors 632 one bedroom residential units for sale in our area which does not include for sale by owners, development offered properties, or those that were listed in our MLS but have now expired. In the past 12 months there have only been 169 of these 1 bedroom units sold. You can see we now have a 3.74 year supply of these homes for sale and the pace continues to slow even further. During the first half of this year area Realtors have only sold 70 of these homes meaning that if that pace continues we are now on a pace of 140 units for 2008. Based on the current 632 unit supply we would then measure our residential inventory at 4.5 years!

Sadly the ONLY use for most of these cabins is as vacation rentals. With only 1 bedroom, no storage, and very small finished area, they aren't practical for use as long term rentals or residences. With no other use than as a vacation rental this oversupply will continue for some time to come and I'm talking about many YEARS.

The moral of this story? NEVER purchase a rental cabin without a view as that is THE most important feature that affects its ability to rent and its saleability. Also, if you are looking to purchase a Smoky Mountain cabin now you have an incredible opportunity. I have recommended a price of $110,000 for the cabin I was researching today for the unhappy bank owner and they are in a state of shock that we are at that level. This is exactly HALF of the price that the former owner had been asking as they tried to resell the property. They in fact paid $191,900 for this cabin on 3/10/2006 and the bank made an 80/20 package loan for 100% of the purchase price. Doesn't really take a rocket scientist to see where this was headed...

We saw this mess coming several years ago and now nearly half of all of our business comes from the real estate foreclosure connections that we have been developing for the past 4 years. If you want honest advice regarding buying or selling real estate here in the Gatlinburg area, please contact us, The Schoenfield Team, at 865-436-0444 or by email.

2008-07-10T14:56:00.001-05:00

Market Update Report

Now that the books are pretty well closed on June 2008 residential sales in the Great Smoky Mountain Association of Realtors it's time to see just how bad it was. The answer is that it certainly wasn't pretty:

When one limits the search to include only sales that were within Sevier County (eliminating nearby areas like the parts of Jefferson, Blount, Cocke, and Knox counties that are also represented in our board) the number was an even more dismal 87 units sold. This is particularly painful when one considers that our board has more than 651 agents who as of today are supposedly actively licensed and members of our board.

What is TOTALLY remarkable is that the Schoenfield team of 4 licensed agents combined for 8 residential unit sales during June. While this is certainly below our average from years past it is actually quite an accomplishment. Consider that with well less than one percent of the total number of agents our team accounted for nearly 10% of all residential sales that occurred during the period in Sevier County! For readers who don't know Sevier County includes all of Gatlinburg, Pigeon Forge, Sevierville, Kodak, and most of the Seymour and Kodak areas. This is quite a testimony to the hard work of our team and the grace of God that allowed us to have this level of success.

2008-07-05T07:44:00.000-05:00

The Latest State of the Market Report

Now that the month of June 2008 is history it's time to review our Smoky Mountain real estate market stats. As always please remember that Realtors will continue to report June sales well into the month of July so this is a preliminary report. The Gatlinburg/Pigeon Forge/Sevierville region saw only 104 units sold in June, making this for now the worst month in recent history for home sales here in the Sevier County and surrounding area (including parts of Knox, Jefferson, Blount, Cocke, and Hamblen counties). In fact, if the search is limited to Sevier County only the number of closed residential sales that have reported as of today is only 77 which if not revised upward significantly is absolutely dreadful.

The consequences of this poor performance are considerable for area real estate practictioners. With only 77 units reported sold during June it's not surprising that at least two real estate firms (that I know of) closed their doors forever during the month. Many real estate agents also decided not to renew their licenses and the carnage in our industry continues.

On Thursday I had the distinct displeasure of evaluating a bed and breakfast property for the bank that recently foreclosed on the site. The reason it was more unpleasant than normal was because the former owner was at the property sweeping up the garage while I was there taking pictures. We talked briefly and I found that he was also a real estate professional who had not only lost the building but has also been forced to temporarily put his real estate practice on hold due to a lack of revenue.

Although the market continues to be difficult for sellers it is a remarkable opportunity to purchase Gatlinburg area homes and other real estate. In fact, foreclosures continue to be a major part of our real estate business and I suspect that this trend will continue. If you are looking for a great real estate investment opportunity for Smoky Mountain real estate now is the time. In fact, if you think you might be interested in a great B&B property on the river convenient to Sevierville, Pigeon Forge, and Gatlinburg that will be coming to the market please let me know.

2008-06-23T09:14:00.002-05:00

Good News, Bad News

May's residential sales as reported by realtors in our Great Smoky Mountains Association of Realtors are in and the results are a mixture of positive and negative news. The good news is that sales for May were up sharply from previous months this year as a total of 147 homes were reported sold according to our MLS. If fact, you have to go all the way back to October of 2007 to find a better performance in a single month:

Although this is certainly good news when you look a little closer the numbers still aren't great. While our real estate market has made some good progress recently the doctor had better not leave the emergency room just yet as the real estate patient has a long road to travel before they can be considered completely healed. Even though May's sales are great compared to recent months they were still fully 36% below last May's numbers which itself was a lower than the same month in 2005 & 2006.

Furthermore, there are large differences in how various sectors of our market are performing. For example Sevierville entry level residences are still selling better than Gatlinburg and Pigeon Forge vacation homes. The smaller homes in Kodak and Seyour are also selling a little better than more expensive properties.

Still, it is good to see an increase month to month and hopefully June will prove that May isn't just a flash in the pan. May's residential sales results reported by local realtors do reflect the general increase in activity that I mentioned on this blog several weeks ago. Stay tuned as June's sales tally isn't far off and we should know much more when the month ends in just a few days.

If you are looking for a great real estate investment opportunity you won't want to wait until everyone agrees that the market has started back up. People who purchase property now will very likely be sitting pretty in a couple of years so don't be a "Johnny come lately" and miss this chance to buy Gatlinburg, Pigeon Forge, or Sevierville real estate at prices not seen in a few years. For more information about anything related to Gatlinburg area real estate please contact us.

2008-06-03T19:17:00.001-05:00

Light at the End of the Tunnel?

Now that we've had a couple of days for members of our Great Smoky Mountains Association of Realtors to report May sales the picture is clearing a little. May sales will likely continue to dribble in but at this point we can already declare that the pace of sales has significantly improved. Total residential sales reported for May are currently at 140 units. This is the best performance our Gatlinburg/Pigeon Forge/Sevierville real estate market has had since of October of 2007's 159 units sold. As I said in a recent post, one month does not constitute a trend but it does appear that the worst may be over (we hope!!).

Not a bit too soon either for those of us in the Sevier County real estate business. I know of several business owners who have had to borrow against their home's equity or from retirement savings to keep their business's doors open during the last year. Other real estate companies have failed or are in the process of closing their doors. From surveyors to appraisors, from builders to realtors we are ALL ready for some relief from the deep valley through which we have trod recently.

Our own business continues to be good but sadly many of the properties we are seeing sell are foreclosure properties that the banks are often willing to nearly give away. While these sales have kept us in the black it is very unpleasant to have to tell someone, as I did again today in Pigeon Forge, that they are going to have to quickly find new accommodations because their lender has completed the foreclosure process and they are no longer the owners of the real estate they have lived in. No longer their home, it is now simply the bank's real estate.

If you are interested in a great opportunity to purchase Gatlinburg area real estate for less (sometimes MUCH less) than it sold for previously please contact me.

2008-05-29T07:54:00.001-05:00

A Last Look at April Residential Sales

Now that the end of May is almost here it is safe to assume that most (but probably not all) April 2008 sales have been recorded in our local Great Smoky Mountain Association of Realtors (GSMAR) multiple listing service or MLS. Although more recent trends are encouraging April 2008 did hold onto the dubious distinction of being the worst month in recent history for our area in terms of the number of residential units sold with a total of only 108 with only 74 of these being within Sevier County. The total units sold is sharply lower than the final tally for April 2007 which totaled 197 units sold. In 2008 the median residential unit sales price was $158,750 which is slightly lower than 2007's median value of $162,000. Can you name ANYTHING else that is less expensive than it was a year ago?? The single greatest casualty in April 2008 may be Gatlinburg residential sales which were nearly non-existent at a total of 8 compared to last year's 24. Pigeon Forge real estate didn't fare much better with only 10 units sold by our entire board of Realtors in April 2008 compared to 21 in April 2007. Sevierville performed the best during this very difficult period with 23 units sold in 2008 versus 38 in April of 2007.

All of this brings us to the topic of May 2008 which for Sevier County is looking at least a little better than April in terms of residential units sold. So far this month, Realtor members have reported 83 Sevier County sales which is again about half of last year's total of 169 but remember that all sales aren't yet reported for May 2008 and some haven't even occurred yet. If past trends repeat members will report quite a few units during the next 10 days so this May, while still sharply below last year's results, should at least be a step in the right direction. Total units (including the surrounding counties that also report some sales in our MLS) are also looking better at 107 units to date compared to last year's 230 reported sales. Again, more sales will be recorded and we won't have the final values until around June 7th or so. My guess is that the total will eventually be around 125 units sold but of course we will have to wait and see.

If all of these numbers have given you a headache please accept my apologies and just remember that we don't require that you be a math fanatic like me to own and enjoy real estate here in the Gatlinburg/Pigeon Forge/Sevierville Tennessee area. We will be glad to assist in your search for a great property here in our Smoky Mountains or help you sell any real estate you may already own. For more information please contact us via email at Jeff@GatlinburgHomes.com or by phone at 800-818-8133. We look forward to working with you!

2008-05-24T06:34:00.001-05:00

Signs of Life!

A recent review of the Gatlinburg area real estate market for one bedroom second homes shows a very interesting stat. There is definitely still a huge oversupply of one bedroom homes available for sale (142 not counting condominium units). While only a comparatively small number of sales have been closed year to date (16, again not counting condo units) the interesting fact is that nearly half (7 to be exact) of the sales have been within the last 30 days. Although one month does not a trend make it certainly can be said that this particular segment of our Gatlinburg area real estate market has picked up dramatically since the end of April.

The pickup is not yet widespread and this can be seen clearly when one considers other segments of our market. For instance, the market for 4 bedroom, 4 or 5 bath log homes in the Pigeon Forge, Wears Valley, Bluff Mountain area of our county is still dreary. While there are 46 of these large homes for sale currently only 6 have been sold in the last 6 months and no sales have been reported by our MLS in the past 30 days.

The strongest part of our market continues to be entry level residences in Sevierville where it is difficult to find any sort of quality 3 bedroom, 2 bath home for under $125,000. Smaller homes in the Sevierville and Seymour areas continue to sell very well as 6 of the 15 available homes in this category are currently shown as pending sales.

For a current review of our overall market by month (but unfortunately not yet by area) please see my statistical summary available by clicking here. If you are looking for professional real estate services to either purchase or sell real estate in the Tennessee Smoky Mountains area (Gatlinburg/Pigeon Forge/Sevierville and surrounding areas) please contact us.

2008-05-21T15:20:00.001-05:00

It's Great to Have a Reason Not to Post to this Blog!

As it has been quite a while since my last post I have a number of topics available to write about. The most important however is the reason that I haven't written about Gatlinburg area real estate in almost two weeks. The reason is quite simply that we have been BUSY. With six pending transactions and several interested buyers currently looking to make purchases it seems that our Gatlinburg area real estate market may finally be finding its footing. Prices are attractive, interest rates are still low, and the feeling locally is that our market is ready to rebound.

Sadly, many other agents in our Gatlinburg/Pigeon Forge/Sevierville area don't seem to be enjoying the same success that we are. In fact, as of today, there have only been 77 residential units sold so far this month by area Realtors. Of course, my normal caveat applies in that most real estate transactions occur at month's end and not all sales are reported by board members immediately.

A good example of this was just last month when on May 1st our board's MLS database showed only 88 residential real estate sales. Within a couple of weeks the final tally for May 2008 was a much improved, but still paltry, 107 residential real estate units sold. Based on the current pace I expect the final tally for May to be ahead of April's totals but still well off of last year's May sales which totaled 228. Stay tuned, we'll have the numbers on a preliminary basis in just about a week and please excuse me if I don't post much between now and then!

2008-05-08T18:33:00.000-05:00

Raised Commute Consciousness

As gas prices head ever higher it shouldn't be surprising that more and more buyers are looking to be closer to the work, recreation, church, or wherever they spend the majority of their time. It is showing up in a quiet way as houses that are further from the focus of our Gatlinburg, Pigeon Forge, and Sevierville communities are harder to sell and when they do sell go for less. This is sort of like the old "location, location, location!" but maybe from more of an accountant's viewpoint.

As gas prices continue to climb this summer it could well be that homes that are a long ways out from town centers will become nearly impossible to sell. With home prices generally down from a year ago and the supply of Sevier County real estate huge, buyers have their pick of lots of properties. It is my recent experience that good communities in great proximity to the center point of a city are in greater demand than just a year ago.

While Americans may not be eager to trade our SUV's, pickups, and full size sedans for compact and even smaller automobiles it does make sense that more of us will become "commute conscious". I expect that shorter commutes will be the answer to offsetting the larger portion of our incomes that gasoline is consuming.

Although this is mainly conjecture on my part it does make a lot of sense if you think about it a little. If you are considering taking advantage of the current historic opportunity for real estate buyers make sure that the home you purchase doesn't require a daunting commute. It could become a very difficult re-sale property in the future.

2008-05-07T12:28:00.000-05:00

April Home Sales at Lowest Level in 4 Years

According to statistics generated by the Great Smoky Mountain Association of Realtors (GSMAR) multiple listing service or MLS, during April 2008 our area's real estate market was at a pace equal to only a little more than a third of sales recorded in the same month during the Gatlinburg/Pigeon Forge/Sevierville real estate boom years of 2005 & 2006. A slowdown in the real estate market isn’t at all peculiar to Sevier County with most of the United States currently feeling the same downturn. The magnitude of the drop in the number of closed transactions locally is however striking:April’s home sales total (including single family homes, condos, and mobile homes with land included) reported by members of GSMAR was the area’s worst performance in over 4 years. It should be noted that not all sales are made by members of GSMAR and certainly there are some successful for sale by owners and direct builder sales that aren’t accounted for in this summary.

Another type of sale that doesn’t involve a realtor is the foreclosure process that takes place on the county courthouse steps. This is the legal procedure in Tennessee and about half of the rest of the country by which a lender completes the repossession of a property for which the owner failed to make the required loan payments. Known as a trustee’s sale, 100% of the purchase price is required to be paid immediately at the end of the auction in the form of a cashier’s check. For this reason not many prospective buyers are generally present at this type of sale. Bidding always starts at what the lender was owed after fees and penalties are added. Often the bank was owed more than what the property will bring under the current real estate market conditions and with such a limited pool of buyers.

These properties are then generally offered through a small number of local agents that specialize in this type real estate. For these Realtors, the down market has a bit of a silver lining. Since there are a very limited number of buyers, sellers must price their properties aggressively to sell their homes. Buyers can choose from many available homes and although other factors always are a part of the decision making process (location, schools, curb appeal, etc.) purchasers will often pick the best bargain available. Because the banks are frequently motivated sellers lender owned properties often provide the best value to prospective buyers.

Buying a foreclosure property certainly isn’t for everyone however. The houses are sold as is, with no warranty or statement of condition by the seller. Often repairs are overdue and maintenance has been neglected so an attractive purchase price is required to make allowance for expenses that will likely come up after the sale. Additionally, one has to be prepared to move quickly because well priced properties that represent excellent value generally become pending sales very quickly, sometimes in a matter of hours. Financing however is generally available for individuals with good credit and foreclosure properties often give buyers an opportunity to own real estate at prices not seen in our area in years. With prices lower and interest rates near historic lows will 2008 be the year folks look back at and say ‘I wish that I had invested in real estate when it was so affordable’?

People will continue to relocate to our area because of the affordable lifestyle of East Tennessee, the mild weather, the low taxes, and our beautiful scenery, and the economic opportunities. When inflation returns, and it will, real estate prices will again move upward and the prices and opportunities of our current market will be only a memory.” As luck would have it I happen to specialize in the sale of Sevier and surrounding county foreclosure properties. If you are interested in picking up a real bargain (foreclosure property or otherwise!) please contact us.

2008-05-02T18:05:00.004-05:00

Morbid Curiosity

Have you ever driven by a very tragic automobile accident site and although you don't really want to look there is something that almost requires you to peer into the mangled automobile as you drive by? There is a very strong, almost unconquerable urge to see if one can view some blood or maybe even an errant limb. I believe it's often human nature to look at something even when we know what we will see might be grotesque or frightening.

My feelings about our April 2008 residential real estate market here in Sevier County are very similar to the misgivings one might have about staring into a recently and seriously wrecked automobile lying along the roadway. Although I know I won't like at all what I'm going to see I have a morbid curiosity about what lies within last month's residential units sold statistics. After taking a brief peak at the April residential sale stats for our market I have definitely seen a site just as financially grotesque as any dangling limb of a crash victim could be.

While each month's sales stats have been lower beginning in September of last year the drop became even more precipitous in April. As of this evening, there were only 88 residential units reported being sold in our market by local Realtors. Sadder still there were only 61 residential units reported as sold within Sevier County, the balance being sold in adjoining Jefferson, Knox, Blount, and Cocke counties. The results are very bleak indeed compared to past year's April sales as can clearly be seen in the chart below:

There are two caveats that need to be mentioned regarding April's paltry reported residential sales. First and foremost, one cannot get a complete tally of sales until a week or more into the new month so there will certainly be some additional sales reported. Based on past experience it is likely that we will add another 6-8 units to the total that simply haven't been reported yet. For an updated view of the stats and an additional chart please click here.

Secondly, there is a pickup in activity levels with more inquiries from buyers viewing our http://www.gatlinburg-homes.com/ website. This important uptrend began a couple of months ago and will likely show up in an increased number of sales in the near future. In fact, I now have 6 pending sales set for May and will hopefully add a couple of more as the month progresses.

It remains, however, that Gatlinburg and Pigeon Forge unit sales are not sufficient to support the current number of Realtors in our Great Smoky Mountain Association. While we have already dropped 100 agents from the all time high agent count set last year there are still far too many real estate agents in our market and some more will likely fall by the wayside.

Foreclosures are some of the only properties that are briskly selling in this environment and we have several new foreclosure homes that we will be bringing on the market during May. Please keep watching this blog as we are going to start publishing homes on this page as they are priced by the banks that are listing their properties with us. If you are interested in purchasing a Smoky Mountain property at a great value please contact us.

2008-04-29T11:34:00.001-05:00

Gatlinburg is a Photographer's Paradise!

While hiking over the weekend with a client and friend I was enchanted by the rich colors and delightful intelligent design (code for God) evident all around us. With the wildflowers ablaze in color in the Great Smoky Mountain National Park and the dogwoods everywhere in bloom Gatlinburg and the rest of Sevier County are currently awash with color. Even the rhododendrons are getting into the act with their large lavender flowers which are blooming early this year. I imagine this is due to our warmer than normal early spring that we have enjoyed so far.

The Ramsay Cascades Trail is one of my favorite Smoky Mountain National Park hikes as you drive along the rolling waters of the river for miles to get to the trailhead. Once the hike begins you continue along the whitewater as it flows down the mountain from the 90 foot tall waterfall at the top. An 8 mile hike roundtrip, it is generally pretty moderate with only a few more challenging portions where the trail is a little steeper. Most of the trail is quite wide and easy to navigate and it is generally very well maintained. Another plus to this particular trail is that there is rarely ever any traffic to speak of (automobile or hiker variety) so you can enjoy the time and the scenery with little interruption. The virgin forest is spectacular and the size of some of the trees as you get near the cascades is remarkable.

A couple of caveats do need to be mentioned however if you are considering making this hike for the first time. If you come when it hasn't rained in a while the automotive portion of the trip will be very dusty so don't wash your car before you come and don't plan on walking along side the gravel roadway. There are lots of miles of trails that aren't dusty at all so don't waste your time hiking along side the dusty gravel road. My second admonition is to be sure and bring your camera. I failed to pack mine for the trip and have regretted it since. If I had taken my camera I would have shared photos with you but alas...

If you are considering owning real estate in the Gatlinburg area please allow us to assist you. We have been working for over 12 years in the Sevier County real estate business and cover the entire county from Gatlinburg all the way to Kodak and from Wears Valley to Cosby. No matter what you are looking for, chances are that we can find it and probably at a great price right now.

If on the other hand you are needing to sell property in this area we will be glad to assist in that as well. Although our real estate market is difficult we have the tools to give your property the best likelihood of being sold.

2008-04-26T09:54:00.001-05:00

Wow, What a Wonderful Farm!!

We just learned of a great farm that has just come on the real estate market that you might want to consider if you are looking for a landmark estate here in the Tennessee Smoky Mountains. Located just a few minutes from Gatlinburg, Pigeon Forge, or Sevierville you will simply have to see this once in a lifetime opportunity to believe it! Perfectly private with a modern farmhouse and it even has a river running through it, this may be THE place you have dreamed of.

http://m.postlewaite.googlepages.com/home

If you would like to view this spectacular estate farm please contact us.

2008-04-26T09:23:00.002-05:00

Ten Most Challenging Major Real Estate Markets

The hardest places to sell homes are naturally those with falling prices as well as a large inventory of unsold homes. Forbes magazine, which examined markets all over the country, concluded that Florida has the most markets that are really in the doldrums. There are several FL cities that are overbuilt, saddled with lousy loans and flat sales.

Jonathan Miller, president of Miller Samuel, a Manhattan-based real estate appraisal company that assisted with the analysis, says it is hard for a city to climb out of a slowdown because in the best of circumstances there's generally a three- to six-month lag between the time buyers start putting a serious dent into the inventory and the time when prices start to improve. Here are the 10 markets Forbes says are the most challenging:

Miami
Orlando
Phoenix
Tampa
Los Angeles
Washington, D.C.
Chicago
Baltimore
San Diego
Denver

Sources: Forbes, Matt Woolsey (04/15/08)

If Gatlinburg, Pigeon Forge, or Sevierville were major markets we might too end up on the list based on April sales. According to the Great Smoky Mountains Association of Realtors MLS database during the first half of the month, local Realtors only posted 34 sales compared to 79 last year and 108 during the period April 1st - April 15th of 2006.

The board's current pace is under 1/3 of the 2006 sales pace and makes it all but certain that April 2008 will be the slowest month for residential real estate closings going back many years. In spite of this region wide lack luster pace I have been blessed with closings in April and have several pending sales in May. For the sake of my fellow real estate agents in Sevier County I hope that they do too...

2008-04-25T18:58:00.001-05:00

CADES COVE LOOP ROAD SCHEDULED DELAYED MORNING OPENING

The Cades Cove Loop Road in Great Smoky Mountains National Park will be closed temporarily to motor vehicles until 10 a.m. each morning, April 28-May 1, Monday-Thursday, to accommodate road construction along the one-way loop road. The 11-mile scenic road, located eight miles from Townsend, Tenn., usually opens at sunrise. During the construction period, hikers and bikers will be permitted to travel back and forth just on a 5-mile portion of the road between the loop road entrance and the construction site.

The Cades Cove Facility Management road crew will perform several projects during this time. They will resurface the Abrams Creek Trail entrance road and parking area with crushed stone and repair the drainage system in those areas. A wooden bridge on the loop road that carries traffic over Abrams Creek will be rehabilitated in this area as well.

Pedestrians will not be permitted past the point of the bridge construction nor will they be allowed to travel the south side (exit side) of the Loop Road where heavy construction vehicles will be transporting all the equipment and materials via the exit side of the loop road. Also, Sparks Lane and Hyatt Lane, the roads bisecting the Cove, will be closed to make sure that pedestrians do not enter the closed area.

Chief Ranger Bill Wright said that "It is mainly for safety reasons that visitors will not be allowed to share the narrow roadway with these large maintenance vehicles moving equipment back and forth on the back side of the road. It will also help to make sure that the construction activity is not disrupted by bicyclists and hikers blocking the road since our employees have a short window to finish the work."

2008-04-24T20:22:00.001-05:00

National New Home Sales Rate Plunges

Sales of new homes plunged by 8.5% to a 17-year low in March, the United States Commerce Department estimated today. The decline in new-home sales to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 526,000 was much weaker than the 577,000 pace expected by economists surveyed by the MarketWatch organization.

In Sevier County, March sales of residential properties fell to the lowest level in many years with only 66 units being reported by the Great Smoky Mountain Association of Realtors (GSMAR). An additional 40 units in neighboring counties were sold by member Realtors during the month but the total of 106 units was sharply lower than March a year ago when a total of 244 residential units were sold by the members of GSMAR.

Of additional concern, the month of April has been very slow so far as reported by members of our MLS. I'm estimating that total sales of residential units by GSMAR members will fall well below 100 units setting a new recent year low for monthly sales. As of this writing only 61 homes and condos have been reported as sold during the month of April for our entire GSMAR Board. There are however at least three reasons why the final tally of April residential units sold should be considerably higher:

Obviously one week remains in the month of April
There are generally more sales in the final week of any month than in other weeks
Agents frequently lag a little in their reporting so we won't have a true number until around May 7th

In spite of the slow state of the market I have actually had a good start to 2008 and already have four pending residential sales for May. Not all that bad, especially given the current real estate market conditions in Sevier County. If you would like to sell your Gatlinburg, Pigeon Forge, Sevierville, Kodak, Cosby, or Seymour property please contact me.

2008-04-23T20:16:00.002-05:00

Great New Home!

This wonderful Whisper Creek home is a wonderful opportunity for someone looking for a masterfully designed and superbly built home in the Pigeon Forge area. Convenient to everything that Pigeon Forge has to offer but away from the zoo that the strip can be, this home is just a couple of miles from the center of Pigeon Forge but is perfectly peaceful and can be yours.

With nearly 3,000 square feet of massively open living space this Smoky Mountain home features quality construction throughout that stands far above many homes currently available in our Gatlinburg area real estate market. For a virtual tour of this luxury property please click here. If you would like to view this grand home in person please contact me at jeff@gatlinburghomes.com or call me at 865-436-0444.

2008-04-23T19:57:00.002-05:00

The Latest Addition to Our Team

It is our great pleasure to welcome back Cindy Hopson to the Schoenfield Team. Some of you may remember that Cindy has worked with us in the past serving as a receptionist and listing coordinator as well as her most recent post as a Buyer Specialist. Cindy is returning to Sevier County after being away a couple of years and we are thrilled to have her back here in the Gatlinburg area.

Cindy takes great pride in her ability to work as an advocate for buyers and to put their interests first. Cindy has another claim to fame and that is that she is my wife Karen's daughter. We are indeed blessed to have a super real estate team and to have Cindy working with us again. I can assure you that if you happen to end up working with Cindy or our Senior Buyer Specialist Suzy Compton-Hays you will receive excellent service.

If you would like to contact Cindy about any Smoky Mountain real estate need you may have please email her at CHopson4@comcast.net.

2008-04-14T08:55:00.000-05:00

New Functionality on Our Website

Unlike most of our competition, we are members of BOTH the Great Smoky Mountain Association of Realtors (GSMAR) AND the Knoxville Association of Realtors (KAAR). This gives our sellers double exposure and also now allows our website visitors to search for properties listed by firms that are only members of the KAAR. While most of the real estate listings in our Gatlinburg, Pigeon Forge, and Sevierville markets are listed by members of the GSMAR there are some that aren't. So that you will be able to view EVERY listing regardless of which board the listing agency is a member of we are now providing a dedicated page on our website for the KAAR search. This is particularly important if you are searching for property in the Kodak and Seymour areas which are serviced by many real estate agencies who are members of KAAR only.

We are sure that you will find it useful and we only ask that regardless of where you find a Smoky Mountain property that you are interested in you allow us to work as buyer's agents on your behalf. Having a buyer agent on your side costs you nothing and ensures that someone in the transaction is looking out for your interests. For more information about buyer agency and why you should have a buyer specialist working exclusively to represent your interests please click here.

With all of that said, here is the link to the KAAR MLS search:

http://gatlinburghomes.com/knoxvillemls.asp

Please let us know if you find this helpful or if you have any recommendations. If we may assist with any real estate need you have please contact us.

2008-04-12T22:10:00.003-05:00

Titanic Sets Sail for Pigeon Forge

The group which brought the spectacular Titanic museum to Branson, MO have purchased a wonderful site for the same type attraction in Pigeon Forge. Just last month the Titanic Tennessee LLC purchased a total of a little over 5 acres of land on the parkway in Pigeon Forge just south of the Black Bear Jamboree for $4.2 million. This is an ideal site exactly half way between the I40 407 exit in the Kodak area and the Sugarlands Visitors Center at the entrance to the National Park just outside of Gatlinburg. The new museum will likely be at least a half scale replica of the famous ship and will certainly become immediately one of the premier draws in the Pigeon Forge area and for that matter all of Sevier county.

After speaking with several individuals close to the transaction I am even more impressed than at first about what this means for our area here in the East Tennessee Smoky Mountains. The website for the new venture was registered on August 13, 2006 so they obviously have been at work planning this for quite a while. What we have needed for some time is more premier attractions in addition to the ones that we have had for some time like the music theaters and of course Dollywood. With the advent of the Gatlinburg Ripleys Aquarium, the Wonder Works Exhibit, and now the new Titanic Museum we are setting the stage for even more new projects that will just increase the number of reasons that guests have to visit Sevier County. With more visitors annually our local businesses will be even more successful and the area will continue to prosper.

If you don't have an investment in the Gatlinburg, Pigeon Forge, Sevierville, Seymour, Kodak, or Cosby area maybe now is the time to consider a real estate investment here. Don't allow 2008 to become the year you look back on and say "I wish I had purchased Smoky Mountain real estate when it was so affordable!". To view every property for sale in our area, please visit our primary site at GatlinburgHomes.com

2008-04-10T16:44:00.002-05:00

The US Dollar and Gatlinburg Real Estate

You might at first glance think that the exchange rate for the US dollar and the value of Smoky Mountain real estate don't have much in common but you could just be wrong. No one can miss the much discussed fall of our greenback versus foreign currencies like the Euro. By some accounts, the dollar has slipped over 70% in comparison with the Euro currency which became the standard currency on January 1, 2002 for 12 of the 15 members of the European Common Market. Since then, the Euro has become the standard of currency for many types of international commerce as the dollar's value has continued to drop. Sadly the fall of the US Dollar is not limited to a comparison versus the Euro. In comparison to most all of the major currencies of the world the US Dollar has declined rather dramatically.

With the current exchange rate of the dollar versus many foreign currencies very near the all time lows it is interesting that real estate prices have gone down. If we are able to purchase real estate at attractive prices with cheap dollars we're really getting a bargain. Think of it this way. In our economy what else of value can you think of that has fallen in value during the past two years? 2008 may well turn out to be the year that many wish they had purchased real estate. In an economy with a fiat currency the ultimate long term result is almost certainly sustained and severe inflation and yet real estate prices are down. While I don't have a crystal ball I do believe that real estate prices will, along with almost everything else, start going up dramatically in the not too distant future. With interest rates near all time lows it has very rarely been cheaper to borrow funds to invest. Now very well may be the time to invest in Gatlinburg real estate!

2008-04-09T05:47:00.002-05:00

It's Not THAT Bad!

With the real estate market locally and in many places around the country sharply off the highs reached a couple of years ago there is a lot of pessimism out there. Daily reports from the media talk about the crisis in the housing market or the mortgage meltdown that we are supposedly going through. Ignored is the fact that over 94% of all mortgages are being paid on a timely basis and although the higher than average number of foreclosures is impacting the market it isn't a meltdown at all. Bad news however sells and this is why we constantly hear the negative reports while better news is often ignored because it doesn't fit the template.

In fact, a local newspaper reported called me recently and wanted to do a story about the state of our local Sevier County real estate market. When I informed him of the state of the overall market but that we were actually having a good year he lost interest and actually found another agency with a much sadder story to tell. My information was never used in his article because it wasn't negative enough.

With all of this said I did have to laugh when I saw the sign below recently. While real estate in the Pigeon Forge (or for that matter Gatlinburg) area certainly isn't selling at the pace or prices of a year or two ago it isn't this bad:

While I did edit out the phone number I didn't touch the price - That's the way the sign really looks. If you are interested in free real estate don't call us but if you are looking for a great deal on a foreclosure or other attractively priced property please do contact us.

2008-04-07T06:00:00.003-05:00

Signs of Life at GatlinburgHomes.com

Although the recent pace of residential sales in Sevier County has been abysmal, there is good news for the future. Last week we recorded the highest number of visitors to our primary real estate site that we have seen since last summer. Here is a chart of our site visitor count by week:

As you can see, our visitor count was up dramatically but that doesn't tell the whole story as there is more good news. The graph below depicts our web site's weekly number of page views. Although not yet above last summer's record levels our site's number of pages viewed by users is trending upward steadily each week:

Does this mean a pending increase in the level of real estate activity in the Gatlinburg, Pigeon Forge, and Sevierville real estate markets? No guarantees here but this does track with my general perception of increased activity in the number of phone calls and property showings. The proof will be in the number of transactions recorded in future months but this is certainly a very good leading indicator that has proved to be quite reliable in the past as a predictor of transaction volume.

If you are considering purchasing real estate now may be a great time to get a super value. If on the other hand you are desiring to sell real estate in the Sevier County area what better place to feature it than on a website that averages 400-500 viewers per day? If we may assist you in either buying or selling real estate here in the East Tennessee Smoky Mountains please contact us.

2008-04-06T06:55:00.000-05:00

Spring is Here and So are Our Guests!

The days are longer and warmer, the nights are milder, the trees are blooming, and East Tennessee is awash in color as everything is blooming. Allergy sufferers take note, the next month or so is a high pollen period and even folks who don't think they have allergies may find themselves sneezing.

Something not to sneeze at however is the number of visitors already here right now. The restaurant parking lots are full and there is a wait tonight at most of the better dining spots. Another sign that spring is here is the traffic has started to pick up although it isn't yet an issue - that comes in July and October when those of us who live here generally want to take our vacations elsewhere and let the tourists have Gatlinburg and Pigeon Forge. Sevierville, formerly not greatly affected by tourism now finds itself in the middle of the mix due to all of the new commercial development in the city so it is no longer exempt from the crowds either.

Mind you, I'm not complaining about the traffic even though I am definitely at least a type A personality. In fact, a friend said years ago that my personality was best described as type A prime! When I find myself stuck in traffic, I have a mind game I play that helps to ease the frustration. I simply imagine a dollar sign hovering in mid air over each of the slowly moving vehicles around me. This symbolizes the fact that all of these folks will inject dollars into our local economy to eat someplace, sleep somewhere, and occasionally someone purchases real estate. Thinking about the economic impact our tourism industry has on the area (and my own finances) removes 99% of the stress caused by the traffic and other delays frequently encountered during our peak tourism seasons.

Of course, if you don't own a rental property or other investment here, the large number of vehicles encountered during our peak seasons only bring frustration. Why not own your own Smoky Mountain vacation getaway and let visitors to the area help pay for it? If you want more information about any sort of real estate investment here in the Smokies please contact me. Then you too can start to see those floating dollar signs that remove stress...

2008-04-05T19:35:00.003-05:00

Never Challenge Worse!

I believe it was the comedian Bill Cosby that first said "Never challenge worse" as in, some situation can't get any worse. I have borrowed the phrase and use it occasionally to remind myself that things aren't as bad as they could be - they could always get worse. Although the final numbers will likely be slightly better as some end of the month sales may still be unreported, in March, the pace of residential sales in our East Tennessee real estate market definitely got worse:

While the drop sequentially from February to March was only 2 units the more important ratio is when this March is compared with March of 2007 and 2006. As you can see by the table above, our residential market's performance in March of 2008 is nothing like previous year's March sales and this is more than a little troubling. Of the 106 residential units sold, only 66 were Sevier County properties with the balance being from surrounding areas including Knox, Blount, Jefferson, and Cocke counties. March historically is a great month when compared with other months of the year. In fact, during 2006 & 2007, March was the BEST month of the year - God forbid that should be the case this year!

Equally troubling is the fact that many (at least 12) of the sales recorded during March 2008 were foreclosure properties and they were generally sold at distressed prices. This confirms my advice to potential sellers during the past year: "Unless you just have to sell you might want to wait out the market and hope for a better environment in the future".

I don't for a minute believe that people will stop vacationing in Sevier County, retiring in the Smokies, or wanting to own a vacation home here in the mountains of East Tennessee. Residential real estate in the Gatlinburg, Pigeon Forge, and Sevierville area will eventually pick up and the question is certainly when, not if. I really think it can't get much worse and I don't believe I just said that...